Pace Numbers Available At HowToPickLongShots.com/blog/

Transcription

1 Please note: Win Rate relates to the pattern win rate. "28%w" means 28% win rate. "58%itm" means 58% of starters with this pattern finished in the money. And the last single number refers to how many starters the percentages are based on. If "0 0 0" is listed for pace numbers, data is unavailable. Same for "no data". Turf Report: take note of first time starters with turf pedigree. Also take note of horses with turf pedigree who are returning to grass after racing on dirt/synthetic. Gulfstream Park 6/27/2015 4F Pace Late Pace Combined Days since last start indicates class drop Win Rate based on pattern Race Win Program # # Rate R1 Turf Turf Sprint _days 1 18%w 45%itm 11 2 LLOYD HARBOR _days 1 7%w 14%itm 14 4 DANUBE RIVER _days 1 11 SLAZARRA _days 1 5 STARSHIP O. E. M _days 1 6 STACK THE CROWN _days 1 9 JUNE FLOWER _days 1 10 BOSTON GARDEN _days 1 1 SORA _days 1 3 ROANA DAYTONA _days 1 11%w 33%itm 9 7 FEVER LAS VEGAS _days 1 8 BELLA FOREVER 1 R2 Dirt 2 8 Dirt Route _days 2 1 ZOOM BOX _days 2 9%w 38%itm 32 3 MASSIVE _days 2 10%w 35%itm 40 2 SUM MIDNIGHT STAR _days 2 4 KENNERLY ROAD _days 2 0%w 44%itm 9 7 SNIFFER _days 2 6 MR. KITTEN _days 2 8 MANNY BLUE BOY _days 2 5 J C UNIVERSAL 2 R3 Turf 3 5 Turf Sprint _days 3 1 BETTARUN REALFAST _days 3 8 NOVAK _days 3 6 EURO EXCHANGE _days 3 3 HY PRINCE HAPPY

2 _days 3 2 MADDY BIRD _days 3 4 HOUSE OF PEGASUS _days 3 7 RUNNING CAT _days 3 5 LEMON ROYAL 3 R4 Dirt 4 6 Dirt Sprint _days 4 0%w 0%itm 10 2 WICKED RASCAL _days 4 8 HEAR THAT TUNE _days 4 3 SARLEF _days 4 6 CHIEF ENVOY _days 4 5 BLUEGRASS LUCK _days 4 7 YOURDREAMSORMINE _days 4 3%w 19%itm 32 4 VISION OF DREAMS _days 4 1 NICONELLIE 4 R5 Turf 5 5 Turf Sprint _days 5 5 MAMBOCELLO _days 5 2 JUDGE HUDSON _days 5 3 CHESSEN _days 5 4 CAJUN SCHILL _days 5 6 PAIR PAIR TIE _days 5 7 FABOURG MARIGNY 5 R6 Dirt 6 5 Dirt Sprint _days 6 1 GO RO RO GO _days 6 4 UNO CITA _days 6 6 HIGH END QUEEN 6 R7 Turf Turf Sprint _days 7 17%w 42%itm 12 1 PRINCESS ROMANA _days 7 12 MISS VISCONTI _days 7 0%w 13%itm 8 6 POLO IS CHEAPER _days 7 9 REDWATER _days 7 2 SICCAR _days 7 10 SUCCESSFUL DIVA _days 7 8 RICHIESREDHOTHONEY _days 7 5 DUNKIRK'S BEST _days 7 7 DICAYAGUA _days 7 4 I O INES _days 7 17%w 50%itm 6 11 STREET PRINCESS _days 7 3 GO SANDY GO 7

3 R8 Dirt 8 8 Dirt Route _days 8 25%w 50%itm 8 7 GOLDEN SAND _days 8 8 GAVEL DOWN _days 8 1 FOUR ZEES _days 8 2 SEAN MICHAEL _days 8 9 WEST RIDE _days 8 7%w 29%itm WILD N' WILD _days 8 5 PHIL'S COMPRISE _days 8 6 STARSHIP ROCKY _days 8 4 AMPHITRYON 8 R9 Turf Turf Sprint _days 9 8 MOONWALKER _days 9 6 MORE APPLAUSE _days 9 13 CHARLIE THE BOSS _days 9 3 RACETRACK ROMANCE _days 9 12 OFF DUTY _days 9 14 MARCH REWARD _days 9 1 WHISPER ONTHE WIND _days 9 4 LOST CAMPER _days 9 9 CAICOS EXPRESS _days 9 10 ROCK THAT BIRD _days 9 10%w 60%itm 10 2 PROPER EMPIRE _days 9 11 ACES FOR JOHN _days 9 7 TIGER BOURBON _days 9 5 RINGOLD 9 11%w 33%itm 9 R10 Dirt 10 8 Dirt Route _days 10 25%w 50%itm 8 8 L. G'S SISSY _days 10 6 BAHAMA DRAMA _days MAMBO MAYA _days 10 2 BERN'S BABY GIRL _days 10 20%w 30%itm ILL CONSIDERED _days ROMEDIOS _days 10 0%w 0%itm 6 3 DAKOTA EYES _days 10 4 NAIGUATA _days 10 7%w 27%itm BULLHEADED LADY _days 10 7 AFLEET ALLIE _days 10 1 B L'S DREAM _days 10 5 FEE AND SUGAR _days 10 9 CHECK HER TWICE

4 Gulfstream Park FTS=First Time Starter Ranks top 88 Turf Sires of /27/2015 Return To Grass / First Grass Start (Lower Rankings = Better Sire) Turf Report Program Number TPs = Turf Sire Turf Sire Dam Sire TPds = Turf Dam Sire Race # Ranking Ranking 1 1 TPs_#_65 TPds_#_15 SORA 1 2 TPs_#_22 LLOYD HARBOR 1 RTG/FGS 3 ROANA DAYTONA 1 4 DANUBE RIVER 1 5 TPs_#_80 STARSHIP O. E. M. 1 6 STACK THE CROWN 1 7 FEVER LAS VEGAS 1 RTG/FGS 8 BELLA FOREVER 1 9 JUNE FLOWER 1 10 BOSTON GARDEN 1 11 TPs_#_65 SLAZARRA 3 1 BETTARUN REALFAST 3 2 TPs_#_45 MADDY BIRD 3 RTG/FGS 3 TPs_#_30 HY PRINCE HAPPY 3 4 TPs_#_65 HOUSE OF PEGASUS 3 RTG/FGS 5 LEMON ROYAL 3 6 TPs_#_29 EURO EXCHANGE 3 7 TPs_#_79 RUNNING CAT 3 RTG/FGS 8 TPs_#_23 NOVAK 5 FTS 1 CRIMSON HAYES 5 RTG/FGS 2 JUDGE HUDSON 5 RTG/FGS 3 CHESSEN 5 RTG/FGS 4 TPs_#_26 CAJUN SCHILL 5 5 MAMBOCELLO 5 RTG/FGS 6 PAIR PAIR TIE 5 RTG/FGS 7 TPs_#_47 FABOURG MARIGNY 5 FTS 8 TPs_#_1 ADOPT A KITTEN 7 1 PRINCESS ROMANA 7 2 SICCAR 7 RTG/FGS 3 GO SANDY GO 7 4 TPs_#_5 I O INES 7 5 DUNKIRK'S BEST 7 6 POLO IS CHEAPER 7 7 DICAYAGUA 7 8 TPs_#_42 RICHIESREDHOTHONEY 7 9 REDWATER 7 10 TPs_#_64 TPds_#_83 SUCCESSFUL DIVA 7 11 STREET PRINCESS

5 7 12 MISS VISCONTI 9 1 WHISPER ONTHE WIND 9 2 TPs_#_39 PROPER EMPIRE 9 3 RACETRACK ROMANCE 9 4 LOST CAMPER 9 5 TPs_#_29 TPds_#_34 RINGOLD 9 RTG/FGS 6 TPs_#_15 MORE APPLAUSE 9 7 TPs_#_41 TIGER BOURBON 9 8 TPs_#_69 MOONWALKER 9 9 CAICOS EXPRESS 9 10 ROCK THAT BIRD 9 RTG/FGS 11 ACES FOR JOHN 9 RTG/FGS 12 OFF DUTY 9 13 TPs_#_53 CHARLIE THE BOSS 9 14 TPs_#_51 MARCH REWARD

6 There are three types of pace scenarios: 1) Fast to the ½ mile and then slow 2) Slow to the ½ mile and then fast 3) Evenly distributed pace throughout the race My pace numbers are designed to reveal the different pace scenarios and help you spot potential winners you might otherwise ignore. 4f Pace This is a pace measurement for each horse based on the first 4 furlongs of the previous race. Late Pace This is a pace measurement for the remaining portion of the race after the ½ mile time. Combined This is a direct comparison of each horse against the others. The higher the number the better. Class drop the arrow indicates a significant class drop (minor class drops usually won't be noted). Win Rate This percentage is based on the pattern of the horse. I currently track close to 5,000 patterns based on surface, distance, and pace style. It's important to remember the Win Rate percentage is based on the pattern and not the horse. Things to note: The 4f Pace and the Late Pace can be compared against each other. The Combined number can only be compared against combined numbers. Always respect horses with the highest combined number even if their 4F Pace or the Late Pace numbers are low. Horses with the highest pace numbers (either 4F Pace or Late Pace) should always be respected. Example: In a 6 furlong dirt race, the fastest early pace horse has a 100 pace rating. Its Late Pace number is only a 25, and its combined number is a 12. Its Late Pace and Combined numbers are dismal compared to every other horse in the field. Should you ignore this horse? Never! This is one type of horse that can win in wire-to-wire fashion at a big price. Horses that are ranked highest for early pace should always be considered for the win slot.