1 Government of India Earth System Science Organization Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department Press Release Dated: 29 September, 2016 Subject: Current status of southwestt monsoonn 2016 and forecast Highlights of the week The southwest monsoon further withdrawn from some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana and some more parts of West Rajasthan on 28 th (Annexure I). A low pressure area influenced north Peninsula and adjoining east & central India during 1 st half of the week. Extremely heavy rainfall (> 20 cm in 24 hours) occurred over Konkan & Goa, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on one or two days of the week. Weekly Rainfall Scenario (222 to 28 September 2016) During the week, rainfall was above Long country as a whole. Details are given below: Period Average (LPA) by 37% over the Regions Actual Normal % Departuree from LPA Country as a whole Northwest India Central India South Peninsula East & northeast India % -31% 75% 47% 33% The Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for the week is given in Annexure II. Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi Phones: , ; Fax No , ,
2 Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (01 June to 28 September, 2016) For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year s monsoon has so far upto 28 September been 3% below LPA. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad homogeneous regions of India are given below: Regions Actual Normal % Departure from LPA Country as a whole % Northwest India % Central India % South Peninsula % East & northeast India % Cumulative seasonal rainfall is given in Annexure III. Current synoptic conditions as on 29 September, 2016 An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood in lower levels. A trough runs from East Uttar Pradesh to northeast Madhya Pradesh at 5.8 km above mean sea level. Another upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Gulf of Siam & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level. An east-west shear zone runs roughly along latitude north of 18.0 N at 5.8 km above mean sea level. Large scale features as on 29 September, 2016 Sea surface temperatures continue to be near normal over Eastern & Central equatorial Pacific Ocean, thus indicating ENSO-Neutral conditions. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is over Maritime Continent, favourable for cyclogenises over central Bay of Bengal. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is continued to be in negative phase.
3 Forecast & Warnings for next one week (29 September to 05 October, 2016) The Forecast and warnings for the 36 Meteorological Sub-Divisions of the country for next 7 days is given below: METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & WEATHER WARNINGS (29 SEP-05 OCT 2016) S.No SUB-DIVISIONS SEP SEP OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS WS WS WS FWS FWS FWS 2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS 3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT SCT 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS 7 ODISHA FWS FWS SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS 8 JHARKHAND FWS FWS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT 9 BIHAR SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS 10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT 11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL 12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT 13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL 14 PUNJAB DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL 15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL DRY DRY ISOL ISOL DRY DRY 16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL 17 WEST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT 19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL SCT FWS FWS SCT FWS FWS 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT FWS 21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS 22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU DRY DRY ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT 23 KONKAN & GOA SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT 24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT 25 MARATHAWADA SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT ISOL 26 VIDARBHA SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS WS FWS 27 CHHATTISGARH FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS WS 28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS 29 TELANGANA FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS 30 RAYALASEEMA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL 33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL 34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 35 KERALA FWS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS FWS LEGENDS: WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) DRY NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL Heavy Rainfall ( mm) Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall ( mm) Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
4 Extended Range Forecast upto 13 October 2016 Above normal rainfall activity likely over many parts of northeast & Peninsular India during next two weeks. Normal to above rainfall activity likely over east & adjoining central India during next two weeks. Weather likely to be dry over most parts of northwest India from 06 October onwards. Next weekly update will be issued on Thursday i.e.06 October, 2016