Urban Growth: CHALLENGES
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1 Financial Institution for Development! Urban Growth: CHALLENGES International Conference on Sustainable Development through Quality Infrastructure/ Tokyo
2 Urban explosion in Latin America and the Caribbean 80% of LAC population live in cities Rural exodus over the last five decades 30 M left their homeland QUANTITATIVE & QUALITATIVE DEFICIT: housing, pubic space, green areas URBAN EXPANSION faster than demographic growth BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES PLANNING AND URBAN INVESTMENT Source: ONU Habitat Estado de Ciudades para América Latina y el Caribe
3 Integral and sustainable solutions for the development of projects Short term Priority solutions Sustainable solutions Regional solutions Forward planning ensuring long-term sustainability and competitiveness Regional vision that improve the quality of life and increase competitiveness Medium term Long-term Forward planning that addresses specific challenges
4 How do we do it?
5 The 3 baseline studies 0 PRELIMINAR TASKS Database compilation and analysis Field visits/ mapping of stakeholders Work plan The aim... to identify key measures that can be fed into the Action Plan in the field of GHG mitigation, vulnerability reduction and urban growth 1 CLIMATE CHANGE 2 VULNERABILITY AND 3 MITIGATION DISASTER RISK REDUCTION GHG Diagnosis (including a GHG inventory) and tendential projections 2050 Roadmap to GHG reduction with 2050 horizon: strategic framework and measures Selection of key natural disasters within the area of study Risk assesment considering climate change (when applicable) URBAN GROWTH STUDY Historical urban footprint Design of urban growth scenarios and urban footprint assesment with a 2050 horizon: Tendential, Smart, Intermediate
6 1 Diagnosis Urban growth methodology Territorial Layout Historical Urban growth analysis Existing Urban Footprint Analisys Strengths & Weaknesses
7 inhabitants 4 indigenous communities SEA COLOMBIA THE BLACK LINE THE SIERRA S HEART Source: SNSM, CTC, 2008
8 Territorial layout SIERRA NEVADA DE SANTA MARTA SERRANÍA DE PERIJA DIALOGUE between the urban growth and the local dynamics
9 Territorial layout Valledupar POPULATION: 386,000 SURFACE: 3,931 Ha
10 Historical Urban growth analysis Urban population growth/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban foorprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 - Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion US 10,9 Ha 178 Ha 1064 Ha 589 Ha 1308 Ha
11 Historical Urban growth analysis Urban population growth/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 - Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion Ha 1765 Ha 1862 Ha 2531 Ha 3762 Ha
12 Urban population Urban growth evolution , , , , , , , Urban Footprint Surface (Ha) 3, , , , ,308 1,461 1,765 1, Density (Hab/Ha)
13 Weaknesses URBAN VOIDS INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS SOCIOSPATIAL SEGREGATION 275 ha (Com 2,3,4 y 5) 10% of urban area Strata 1-2 Strata 3 Urban Voids Informal Settlements Strata 4,5 y 6
14 Low accessibility New middle-class developments creating gated communities ONE entrance per 100 m
15 EXISTING HEIGHT AREA (ha) % 0 Floors Floors Floors 10, Floors 1, Floors 1, Housing typology/ UNIFAMILIAR Self-construction under NO Sismoresistent Code implementation Opporutnity for assisted self-help housing???
16 23% of residential surface is located in lower strata inhabitants in low quality areas and High risk conditions
17 Strengths/ Valledupar and other cities URBAN DENSITY/ Compact and homogenous Densidad neta (Hab/Ha) Valledupar/ COLOMBIA inhabitants 147 people/ha km Bridgetown/ BARBADOS Inhabitants 44 people/ha km Cumaná/ VENEZUELA Inhabitants Average of density (ECSI) 88 people/ha
18 Strengths DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL IN THE LAND USE PLAN (POT) CAPACITY ANALYSIS BY URBAN TREATMENTS Demographic development Urban renewal Consolidation Proyected dwellings needed New developments/ urban área % New developments/ expansion área Total dwellings
19 2 Growth Scenarios Tendential/ smart/ intermediate Urban growth methodology Prospective Recomendations
20 Scenario results EXISTING TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE SURFACE (ha) URBAN DENSITY (hab/ha) GREEN AREAS (m2/ha) TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE EXISTING TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE EXISTING TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE
21 Scenario results TENDENTIAL/ Business as usual INTERMEDIATE SMART COMPARATIVE COSTS ANALYSIS
22 Challenges and lessons QI is not an end, it s the vehicle LOCAL SOLUTIONS to global problems RESEARCH & PRACTICITY are possible DO-THANK/ Learning by doing
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