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1 Planning for Peak Car: International Evidence of How Urban Development is Moving Beyond Auto Dependence Jeffrey Kenworthy Professor in Sustainable Cities Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute (CUSP), Curtin University,, Western Australia University of Applied Sciences,, Germany Presented to: Trivector, Lund October 12, 216 OUTLINE An overview of comparative data on cities using selected key variables (American, Canadian, Australian, European and Asian cities), highlighting particular cities. Major changes in urban transport in recent years. Peak car use, nationally and in cities Decoupling of GDP from growth in car use An insight into the concept of Automobile, Transit and Walking City fabrics and how recognising, respecting and rejuvenating different urban fabrics can lead to better planning and transport outcomes for cities. Some brief conclusions and overall policy implications What are some key things that cities should do to become more sustainable? Urban form factors - Urban density - Proportion of jobs in CBD Economic factors - Metropolitan gross domestic product per person - Average user cost of a car trip - Average user cost of a public transport trip - Total passenger transport cost as a percentage of GDP - Ratio of annual investment in public versus private transport Private transport infrastructure factors - Length of freeway per person - Parking spaces per 1 CBD jobs - Total cars + motor cycles per person Public transport infrastructure factors - Total length of reserved public transport route per person - Total length of reserved public transport route per urban ha - Ratio of reserved public transport infrastructure versus freeways Private transport use and performance factors - Total car+motor cycle+taxi passenger kilometres per person - Ratio of system average public transport speed versus private transport speed Public transport service and use and non-motorised mode use factors - Total public transport seat kilometres of service per person - Total public transport boardings per person - Proportion of total motorised passenger kilometres on public transport - Proportion of total daily trips by public transport - Proportion of total daily trips by non-motorised modes Energy and externality factors - Total private and public transport passenger energy use per person - Total CO2 emissions per person from passenger transport (kg) - Total emissions of CO, HC, NOx and SO2 per person (kg) - Total emissions of CO, HC, NOx and SO2 per urban hectare (kg) - Total transport deaths per 1, people - Total transport deaths per billion passenger kilometres A small sample of the kind of data that are collected and compared for cities. Metropolitan Areas Represented in Trends Data Australian Metropolitan Areas European Metropolitan Areas Canadian Metropolitan Areas Stuttgart Ottawa American Metropolitan Areas Bern Asian Metropolitan Areas Seattle Last three US cities and are not in trends graphs, Total 45 cities only detailed city graphs Much of the data shown in this presentation and more are in our new book released on August 11, 215 has comparatively high per capita GDP but not very high car dependence.. Metropolitan gross domes c product per capita (USD ) $55,7 $54,266 $54,145 $53,941 $5,918 $48,756 $48,512 $48,448 $47,548 $47,26 $45,762 $45,133 $44,124 $43,527 $43,18 $42,324 $41,641 $4,899 $4,666 $4,27 $39,758 $39,33 $38,356 $37,416 $36,733 $36,713 $36,131 $34,79 $33,889 $33,368 $33,294 $33,13 $32,589 $31,583 $3,411 $29,956 $29,726 $29,365 $26,964 $26,815 $26,611 $23,578 $21,27 $2,179 $18,823 Scandinavian cities have comparatively high per capita GDP and comparatively moderate car dependence. Metro GDP per Capita GDP of metro areas is not a major determinant of their sustainability in transport or mobility patterns. There are many high income cities with quite low car use and many high income cities with high car use. $ $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, Metropolitan GDP per capita (US$) 1

2 Car passenger kilometres per capita Percentage average increase in car VKT per capita Cars per 1 persons In a global perspective Scandinavian cities have medium car ownership relative to their wealth and level of development. Car Ownership Car ownership is important, but not as critical as how much cars are used 91 Passenger car passenger kilometers per capita 24,135 21,769 21,32 2,621 19,285 17,867 17,471 16,879 16,736 15,65 15,54 13,652 13,145 13,16 12,765 Car passenger 11,586 11,46 kilometres of travel per 11,38 capita actually declined 9,987 9,341 from to in 14 8,78 8,311 metro regions: 8,186 8,1 8,37 7,896 7,816 7,789 7,771 7,454 7,331 7,47 6,564 6,453 6,29 5,675 5,67 5,43 5,229 4,858 4,42 4,56 3,486 3,4 (-21) Car Use In a moment I want to explore some of the factors that influence the level of automobile dependence in cities, as reflected in these car travel data , 1,2 Units per 1 persons 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, Car passenger kilometers per capita Car Use Trend in 41 Global Cities, -6 to ,155 18,73 USA Passenger car passenger kilometres per capita USA 12,114 12,447 AUS AUS 26 8,645 8,495 CAN CAN 26 6,319 6,817 EUR EUR 1,978 1,975 ASIA Let s now consider this question of the peaking of car use and its decoupling from GDP. There is now strong evidence that cities in the developed world are peaking in car use. ASIA Peaking of car use in wealthier cities has had a long gestation period Car Use Trend 196 to 25.7 The percentage growth in car VKT per person has been getting less and less with each passing decade Car use growth trends in developed cities from 196 to using Global Cities Database. 5.1 In Australian Cities, Car Use Appears to Have Peaked (Estimated Car Passenger Kilometres per Annum) Car Use (VMT) Appears to Have Peaked in the USA as a Whole Peak Car Use in Australian Cities: A Sustained Trend. (graphic created by James McIntosh from BITRE, Canberra data) Note: Passenger kilometres for Australian cities in this graph are only for the passenger car class of vehicle, whereas our own comparisons also include the light commercial vehicle class because it is used heavily for private passenger travel in Australian cities (as with light duty trucks in US cities). Source: US Department of Transportation data 2

3 Wellington Dusseldorf National Peak Travel in Various Countries (1) National Peak Travel in Various Countries (2) Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (212a) Traffic Growth: Modelling a Global Phenomenon, Report 128, BITRE, Canberra, Australia. Data are based on all vehicle types. Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (212a) Traffic Growth: Modelling a Global Phenomenon, Report 128, BITRE, Canberra, Australia. Data are based on all vehicle types. Some Countries Have Not Peaked in Travel Decoupling of GDP from growth in travel and energy use is an important new trend. It has always been assumed that growth in vehicle use follows growth in GDP. But, in the USA, Vehicle Miles of Travel essentially decoupled from GDP growth in the mid-199s, about a decade before actual car use per capita started declining. Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (212a) Traffic Growth: Modelling a Global Phenomenon, Report 128, BITRE, Canberra, Australia. Data are based on all vehicle types. Kooshian, C. and Winkelman, S. (211) Recent trends in the travel intensity of the US economy. Center for Clean Air Policy, DC. (available at: kooshian.pdf - accessed July 7, 213) Urban Car Use Has Decoupled From Metropolitan GDP Growth 2.% Percentage change in car kilometres per real LCR from to (real LCR ) 1.%.% -1.% Decoupling of GDP from driving is very pronounced in some US cities. Kooshian, C. and Winkelman, S. (211) Recent trends in the travel intensity of the US economy. Center for Clean Air Policy, DC. (available at: - accessed July 7, 213) -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% -6.% Kenworthy, J. (213) Decoupling urban car use and metropolitan GDP growth. World Transport Policy and Practice 19 (4) Percentage change in car kilometres per real LCR from to (real LCR ) Cities are requiring less car travel to generate their GDP. Only 3 cities out of 42 in this study increased in this factor. These were cities whose GDP per capita had hardly increased. It has also happened already in Taipei and Sao Paulo and perhaps is happening in other rapidly motorising cities. 3

4 Factors behind peak car use in cities from our analysis Modelling of trends in car VKT for our global cities database from 196 to 2, shows that the changes can be primarily explained by urban density and transit service levels 1. Sprawl has reversed in many cities and metropolitan densities are increasing. There is a strong power function linking car use and urban density (shown next) Growth of a culture of urbanism: People are moving back into central city and inner city areas in search of a live/work/play urban environment with less car use, not long car commutes from the suburbs in congested traffic. Young people are getting fewer driver s licenses and are driving less, preferring to spend money on public transport, mobile devices and more central living (as well as more holiday travel). Public transport is growing rapidly in use, particularly in urban rail and one passenger km on public transport replaces multiple car passenger kms (the transit leverage effect due to trip chaining). The price of fuel is having an effect. Automobile cities have hit a travel time and distance wall. There is too much traffic and cities cannot maintain a reasonable daily travel time budget of 65 to 7 minutes per person per day (Marchetti constant) unless they restructure with faster public transport and transit-oriented development. Communities are now being built more around walking, cycling and public transport to meet daily needs within the travel time budget. Many cities are aging. People in their 7s drive about 5% as much as people from 2 to 5 years. The changes needed in cities today to reduce automobile dependence relate very strongly to minimising the creation of new Auto City fabric, while recognising, respecting and rejuvenating existing Walking and Transit city fabric and creating new Transit and Walking City fabric, especially in auto-dominated areas of every city. We develop this Theory of Urban Fabrics in the new book. 1. McIntosh, J., Trubka, R., Kenworthy, J. and Newman, P. (214) The role of urban form and transit in city car dependence: analysis of 26 global cities from Transportation Research D, 33: The power function link between urban density and per capita energy use/car use The Three Key Urban Fabrics in Cities and Their Mixing s central and inner areas are dense, transit rich Walking and Transit City fabric with the least car use. High density old Walking City Fabric, Bern, Switzerland New medium density Transit City Fabric, Freiburg, Germany Recent low density Auto City Fabric,, Australia Some Specific Guidelines for Respecting and Creating New Walking and Transit City Fabric Walking City Provide walking infrastructure to cope with pedestrian flows Don t widen streets or insist on setbacks Respect and value the potential of public spaces Maximise walking space and time for pedestrian crossings Enable laneways to be connected and active Encourage high density, mixed use Promote housing diversity of all types and quality, including car-free housing Minimise parking and keep it underground Remove auto city functions (1-way streets, green waves for cars, parking that destroys pedestrian amenity) Remove auto city elements harmful to pedestrians and cyclists (e.g. freeways) Transit City Provide transit as the main transport in the area, especially rail modes. Ensure corridors are well connected Encourage sufficiently dense, mixed uses to provide a frequent service. Maintain a high environmental quality encouraging access to transit and local services by foot or bike. Minimise auto city elements harmful to transit, such as high capacity roads for cars. Provide reserved rights-of-way for transit, especially new rail options. Apply best practice standards to all transit elements (shelters, information, maps etc) Build up densities along train, tram and BRT lines with TOD. Keep parking to a minimum Urban density (persons/ha) In a global perspective Scandinavian urban regions tend to be moderate in density compared to others in Europe. started creating new Transit and Walking City fabric in the late 195s in its satellite town centres (as well as new auto-city fabric) Urban Density (persons/ha) Urban Density The correlation between urban density and car/energy use in the wealthy cities is very strong. Cities must find ways of strategically raising densities to develop more sustainable transport systems. False Creek,, and Vällingby and Kista, are examples of new Transit and Walking City. 4

5 Propor on of jobs in CBD (%) 22.% 21.5% 2.9% 2.6% 29.2% 28.6% 27.1% 26.3% Centralised work locations are much easier to service with public transport and non-motorised modes than sprawling decentralised patterns. 19.3% 19.1% 19.1% 18.4% 18.% 17.8% 17.4% 17.3% 16.9% 16.7% 15.7% Low density areas, such as below, need to have new Transit and Walking City Fabric injected into them through new transit systems and TOD built around them. 14.6% 13.1% 12.8% 12.7% 12.4% 12.1% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.2% 11.% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 9.9% 9.7% 8.5% 7.8% 7.6% Scandinavian cities vary in their 7.2% job centralisation in the CBD. 7.1% 6.4% They probably also vary in the 5.8% degree of decentralised 5.1% 4.9% concentration in sub-centres. 3.4% s denser CBD and inner suburbs are well-served by trains and trams and are walkable. Jobs in the suburbs are typically accessed by cars. % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% has some noticeable examples of de-centralised concentration, though much of this is residential. Length of freeway per person (m/person) Freeway Supply It has been known for decades that building more freeways pushes cities towards higher automobile dependence and less sustainable transport..114 Where jobs outside the central area are concentrated into strong sub-centres linked to public transport, auto dependence can be reduced Red line is average US city per capita freeway provision Scandinavian cities have relatively high provision of freeways and certainly should not be building more. Cities need to minimise, stop or even reverse their supply of freeways, especially to restore Walking and Transit City Fabrics Length of freeway per person (metres) Impacts of freeways Slussen project (not this!) is an example of repairing walking city fabric One freeway clover leaf occupies the same area as a typical medieval walking city such as Salzburg. This is an example of how the imposition of Auto City Fabric has destroyed the old Transit and Walking City Fabrics of countless cities. In Seoul they tore down 5.8 km of elevated freeway and surface road carrying 12, vehicles per day. Average speed in Seoul increased!!. Traffic behaves like a gas, not like a liquid. 5

6 Seoul has removed a key element of Auto City Fabric imposed on the city in the 196s and rejuvenated the Transit and Walking City Fabrics in its centre. Cheonggyecheon River restoration, Seoul, South Korea Total length of reserved public transport routes per 1 persons (m/1 persons) Cheonggyecheon River restoration, Seoul, South Korea Public transport reserved route per 1 persons (metres) Many cities are adding significant amounts of new reserved route for transit, mainly new rail systems, both LRT and regular rail (China, India, Canada, Middle East). Budapest Rail Systems are Gaining in Relevance in The Face of Urban Change - effective tram right-of-way Reserved rights-of-way are critical for transit and can help cities rejuvenate Auto City Fabric with new Transit (and Walking) City Fabrics For any trip under ten miles or between 15 and 5 miles in any country with a functioning railway network, the train is the quickest way to travel as well as, taking all costs into account, the cheapest and least destructive... The attractions of a return to social calculation are becoming as clear to modern planners as they once were, for rather different reasons, to our Victorian predecessors. What was, for a while, oldfashioned has once again become very modern. Tony Judt, Bring Back The Rails. The Review of Books. January 13,

7 Public transport boardings per capita ,347 1,147 1,99 1,78 1,524 1,417 2,32 2,193 2,173 2,48 2,17 2,635 2,511 2,369 2,353 3,56 2,919 2,83 Public transport seat kilometres of service 3,284 3,136 3,874 3,715 3,682 4,244 4,927 4,857 5,69 5,552 5,452 5,431 5,966 5,759 6,444 6,48 6,256 6,247 6,556 8,218 9,131 9,88 9,676 1,71 11,567 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, Public transport seat kilometres of service per person (total and rail) Public transport service levels in Scandinavian cities are relatively high Total public transport boardings per capita , 1,2 Public transport boardings per capita 1,51 Scandinavian cities have relatively diverse levels of public transport use. While none are real stars, and are very good. Public Transit Use High usage of public transport is a key feature of cities with more integration of development around public transport stops, especially rail stations. Joyce Station,, 24 Joyce Station, A range of housing densities, that are 24people-oriented Joyce Station,, 1987 Skytrain New Westminster Station,, 24 Joyce Station,, 24 Rail can be very powerful in influencing the form and scale of development Generous, people-oriented public environments Hotel, Offices, Farmers Market, Cafes, Restaurants Total public transport boardings per capita Bus and Rail Tends to USA bus: +2.7% USA rail: +21.7% CAN bus: +2.1% CAN rail: +17.8% AUS bus: +4.8% AUS rail: +6.4% EUR bus: +5.8% EUR rail: +1.4% ASIA bus: -13.2% ASIA rail: +11.2% Chinese cities are building metros and nationally there is a large and growing high speed rail network between cities. 51 Indian cities are building metros Middle eastern cities are building rail for first time Cities in Europe are expanding rail lines (e.g. circle LRT lines) Usage of urban rail systems is growing strongly. A New Golden Age of Rail USA USA AUS AUS 26 CAN CAN 26 EUR EUR ASIA ASIA A very significant increase is occurring in urban rail systems worldwide not just in usage, but in new rail systems throughout China, India and elsewhere. Canada is on the verge of the biggest increase in urban rail network in its history with new lines in,, Ottawa and other parts of Ontario. 7

8 Annual Rail Boardings ('s - train and traim) Annual Boardings per Line Development of Rail Use in and Adelaide, 1988 to , 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Since 1988 usage of s rail system has increased almost 7- fold. Adelaide has remained essentially stagnant (diesel system, no extensions) Electrification of s original three rail lines 1991 Opening of s northern suburbs line 1993 Small slump in use likely due to overcrowding, under capacity of network as well as some economic factors. 215 is up again. Opening of s southern suburbs line December 27 Dublin Adelaide Ra o of overall public transport system speed to road speed Ra o of metro/suburban rail speed to road speed Year The new Golden Age of rail in cities is partly underpinned by the increasing speed of urban rail systems compared to general road traffic speed in cities. Newman, P. Kenworthy, J. and Glazebrook, G. (213) Peak Car and the Rise and Rise of Global Rail: Why this is happening and what it means for large and small cities. Journal of Transportation Technologies 3, Annual Patronage versus Average Speed of the Rail Line in Annual Boardings 213/14 versus the Average Speed of an All Stops Service 25,, y = 2E+7ln(x) - 6E+7 R² = Congestion is a Major Problem Worldwide, Something Which Rail Systems Help to Address 2,, Mandurah Line 15,, Joondalup Line 1,, Fremantle Line Armadale Line 5,, Midland Line Average Speed of All Stops Service for Each Line (km/h) Usage of rail lines in is strongly positively correlated with their average speed. There is no correlation with the number of stations provided on each line. The line with the least stations has the highest use! Park and Ride accounts for an average of only 13% of rail use even in this auto-city. Photo Source: Bruun, E. and Givoni, M. (215) Six research routes to steer transport policy. Nature 523: (July 2, 215) Rail Systems Have a Deeper Societal Meaning The railways were and remain the necessary and natural accompaniment to the emergence of civil society. They are a collective project for individual benefit. They cannot exist without common accord (and, in recent times, common expenditure), and by design they offer a practical benefit to individual and collectivity alike. This is something the market cannot accomplish except, on its own account of itself, by happy inadvertence. Source: Tony Judt, Bring Back The Rails!. The Review of Books. January 13, % 16.3% 14.5% 14.1% 14.1% 13.1% 12.9% 12.5% 12.2% 12.2% 12.% 11.3% 9.6% 9.6% 7.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.3% 4.7% 3.5% 3.% 3.% Daily trips by non motorized modes (%) 42.9% 41.% 39.9% 39.9% 39.% 38.6% 38.3% 38.2% 37.1% 36.% 34.5% 34.4% 33.4% 32.% 31.% 29.2% 28.7% 26.9% 25.2% 24.3% 24.2% 21.6% Scandinavian cities have generally good levels of walking and cycling. 51.9% Modal Split to Walking and Cycling Improving conditions for pedestrians and cyclists is essential to the development of more sustainable transport. % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Percentage of daily trips by non-motorized modes 8

9 s pedestrianised city centre and the Avenue des Champs-Élysée are attractive places for people of all ages. Barcelona s La Rambla is the centre-piece of the city. Arabella Park Sub-Centre,, Germany: 1, residents, 18, workers set in traffic free space. New Transit and Walking City Fabrics in the suburbs, NMT struggles to be 1% of Actual total urban travel, or even 5% in many cases. Percentage of Person Kilometres Travelled (PKT) by Different Modes. Auto dependence is overcome when car use reduces to about 75% of total PKT. Leizigerstraße, (Traffic Calming). Pedestrianisation in the suburbs,. Transit City Fabric areas should aim for no more than 5% of total PKT by car and Walking City areas no more than 25%. See Kenworthy, J. (214) Total Daily Mobility Patterns and Their Policy Implications for Forty-Three Global Cities in and. World Transport Poiicy and Practice 2 (1), Conclusions Sustainable Transport is a Package Deal. Lower car use cities have less car ownership, more competitive public transport, more public transport use, more walking and cycling, less parking, higher density housing, fewer freeways, more higher quality transit lines, lower energy use and emissions and so on. There is, however, little relationship to wealth. Some important things that cities need to do to move beyond automobile dependence revolve around minimising Auto City Fabric and maximising Transit and Walking City Fabric : Increase densities strategically around transit stops; Build more high quality transit infrastructure, especially rail; Improve their urban centres and enhance their public spaces for pedestrians and cyclists; Stop building destructive freeways and even take out some of the most destructive sections; Introduce vehicle car and bike sharing and car-on-demand schemes to help reduce car ownership (both electric cars and e-bikes); Have Integrated Mobility Management systems that link all modes through IT. Congestion charging A Small Final Reflection on Our Transport System Choices Trains take us places together Every time you ride one, you look outside, and you look inside, and you can t help but think about the private and the public in a new way A train is a small society, headed somewhere more or less on time, more or less together, more or less sharing the same window, with a common view and a singular destination. Adam Gopnik The Plot Against Trains (The er, May 15, 215). 9