A Distant Mirror: Credit contraction, monetary policy and commodity prices during the Great Depression. John Kemp Reuters 30 January 2009
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1 A Distant Mirror: Credit contraction, monetary policy and commodity prices during the Great Depression John Kemp Reuters 3 January 29
2 BORROWING BOOM IN 192s. FOLLOWED BY DE-LEVERAGING IN 193s U.S.$ bn Private sector net debt of which, Corporate net debt Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
3 U.S.$ mn 1, BEFORE THE CRASH, ROARING TWENTIES SAW HUGE RISE IN DEBT, EQUITY ISSUANCE 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Net issue of new securities (minus retirements) Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
4 U.S.$ mn 7, RECORD MARGIN LOANS TO FUND EQUITY PURCHASES, DOUBLING , ONE MANIFESTATION OF RAPID FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND INCREASED RISK APPETITE 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Brokers' loans to fund purchase of equities ( ) Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
5 U.S.$ mn 25, ONCE DOWNTURN UNDERWAY, BANKS RESPOND BY SHRINKING BALANCE SHEETS BANK ASSETS FALL 3 PERCENT , 15, 1, 5, Commercial bank assets in the United States Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
6 U.S.$ mn 25, CONTRACTION HITS REGULAR COMMERCIAL LOANS HARDEST, BANKS SHIFT BALANCE SHEETS TO CASH AND MARKETABLE ASSETS 2, 15, 1, 5, Cash Investments Loans Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
7 U.S.$ mn 9, VOLUME OF BANK LOANS SHRINKS 5 PERCENT BETWEEN 1929 AND , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Outstanding loans and advances by commercial banks in the United States Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
8 Number, U.S.$ mn 4,5 RESTRICTIVE CREDIT POLICY AND SLUMPING ECONOMY TRIGGER UNPRECEDENTED WAVE OF BANK FAILURES 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Number of banks suspended Volume of deposits in suspended institutions Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
9 Per cent 1 DURING 1933, MORE THAN 8 PERCENT OF ALL BANK DEPOSITS ARE "SUSPENDED" (ie FROZEN) Deposit suspensions as percentage of total bank deposits Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
10 COLLAPSING CONFIDENCE IN THE BANKING SYSTEM DRIVES STRONG PREFERENCE FOR CASH RATHER THAN BANK DEPOSITS U.S.$ bn Currency held by public Bank deposits Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
11 DEMAND FOR LIQUIDITY BECOMES EXTREME, DEPOSITS SHRINK EVEN AS CASH DEMAND RISES Ratio of bank deposits to currency in circulation Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
12 US$ bn MONEY SUPPLY CONTRACTS 2-25 PER CENT, INTENSIFYING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND PRICES M1 (Currency + demand deposits) M2 (Currency + demand deposits + time deposits) Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
13 Per cent INTENSE DEMAND FOR SAFE, LIQUID INSTRUMENTS DRIVES SHORT-TERM TREASURY BILL RATES CLOSE TO ZERO Yield on 3mth Treasury bills Commercial paper rates for 4-6 mth paper Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
14 Per cent yield PRONOUNCED UPWARD SLOPE IN YIELD CURVE, DEMAND FOR SAFETY AT FRONT-END, FEARS ABOUT DEFAULT & INFLATION KEEP BACK END UP Yr Aaa Corp Bonds 5Yr Aaa Corp Bonds 1Yr Corp Aaa Bonds Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
15 Per cent SHARP EASING IN NEARBY RATES ONLY GRADUALLY REFLECTED IN BACK END Commercial paper rates for 4-6 mth paper Yield on 1Yr Aaa-rated corp bonds Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
16 U.S.$ mn 6, FED STANDS BY AS MONEY SUPPLY AND BANK CREDIT COLLAPSE, NO REAL INCREASE IN FED'S BALANCE SHEET BEFORE , 4, 3, 2, 1, Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve Banks Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
17 U.S.$ mn 3, FED LENDING TO THE BANKING SYSTEM REMAINS STUBBORNLY UNCHANGED , CENTRAL BANK REFUSES TO BOOST MONEY SUPPLY THROUGH QUANTITATIVE EASING 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Federal Reserve Credit Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
18 U.S.$ mn 25, LIQUIDITY PILES UP IN FEDERAL RESERVE COMMERCIAL BANKS INCREASE EXCESS RESERVE BALANCES RATHER THAN RAISE LENDING 2, 15, 1, 5, Commercial bank reserves with the Federal Reserve System Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
19 Index Jan 192 = 1 NO SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY IN FARM PRICES UNTIL SECOND WORLD WAR, BUT FARM PRICES HAD BEEN TRENDING LOWER SINCE END OF FIRST WAR Winter wheat Cotton Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
20 Index Jan 192 = 1 ENERGY PRICES FALL, BUT RECOVERY UNDERWAY FROM 1934 AND PREVIOUS PRICE LEVEL MOSTLY REGAINED BY Coke Gasoline Crude oil Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
21 Index Jan 192 = 1 SHARP GAINS IN METAL PRICES DURING (STEEL RISES 25 PER CENT IN 1937) FED RAISES RESERVE REQUIREMENTS AMID FEAR EXCESS LIQUIDITY IS DRIVING INFLATION Steel (billet) Copper Lead Zinc Source: US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States Printed: 2/2/29
22 MANUFACTURING OUTPUT AND CONSUMER PRICES INDEX JAN 192 = Manufacturing Output Consumer Prices Source: Federal Reserve System, Bureau of Labor Statistics Printed: 2/2/29
23 CONSUMER AND WHOLESALE PRICES INDEX JAN 192 = Consumer Prices Producer Prices Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Printed: 2/2/29
24 CYCLICAL RECOVERY AND INTEREST RATES LHS MANUFACTURING INDEX JAN 192 = 1, RHS INTEREST RATES PER CENT Manufacturing Output FRBNY Discount Rate (RHS) FRBNY advances to banks (RHS) FRBNY other loans secured on US government obligations (RHS) Source: Federal Reserve System Printed: 2/2/29
25 TIGHTENING OF RESERVE REQUIREMENTS IN DRAINS $3 BILLION OF EXCESS RESERVES FROM SYSTEM, CONTRACTS CREDIT, AND TRIGGERS SECOND DOWNTURN Manufacturing Output (LHS) Reserve Requirement (RHS) Source: Federal Reserve System Printed: 2/2/29
26 SHARE PRICES DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE JAN 192 = Manufacturing Output Dow Jones Industrial Average FRBNY Discount Rate (RHS) Source: Dow Jones and Co Printed: 2/2/29
27 FED ABANDONS CONVENTIONAL POLICY AFTER 1934 SWITCHES FROM DISC'NT RATE (COST OF MONEY) TO RESERVE REQ'MENT (QTY OF MONEY) Fed Reserve Requirements (LHS) FRBNY Discount Rate (RHS) FRBNY advances to banks (RHS) FRBNY other loans secured on US government obligations (RHS) Source: Federal Reserve System Printed: 2/2/29
28 FED ABANDONS CONVENTIONAL POLICY AFTER 1934 SWITCHES FROM DISC'NT RATE (COST OF MONEY) TO RESERVE REQ'MENT (QTY OF MONEY) Fed Reserve Requirements (LHS) FRBNY Discount Rate (RHS) FRBNY advances to banks (RHS) FRBNY other loans secured on US government obligations (RHS) Source: Federal Reserve System Printed: 2/2/29
29 FED ABANDONS CONVENTIONAL POLICY AFTER 1934 SWITCHES FROM DISC'NT RATE (COST OF MONEY) TO RESERVE REQ'MENT (QTY OF MONEY) Fed Reserve Requirements (LHS) FRBNY Discount Rate (RHS) FRBNY advances to banks (RHS) FRBNY other loans secured on US government obligations (RHS) Source: Federal Reserve System Printed: 2/2/29
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