Monitoring the Philippine Social Weather Gerardo A. Sandoval Social Weather Stations, Philippines

Transcription

1 Monitoring the Philippine Social Weather Gerardo A. Sandoval Social Weather Stations, Philippines Presentation for Asian Network for Public Opinion Research (ANPOR), Bangkok, Thailand November

2 Founded in 1985 as a Private, Non-stock, Non-profit Organization THE SWS MISSION: Education: So eyes may see social conditions Conscientization: So hearts may feel social problems Analysis: So minds may understand their solutions THE SWS MOTTO: Quot homines tot sententiae Respect for diversity 2

3 AN ACADEMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE: Social sciences, multidisciplinary Politically non-partisan Generates data on public issues Publishes its findings Banks all data for public research Embargoes are strictly temporary 3

4 PROFESSIONAL NETWORKS Philippine Social Science Council (PSSC), since 1986 Marketing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines (MORES), since 1986 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), since 1990 American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), since 1993 World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), since 1993 Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR), since 1994 Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), since 1995 World Values Survey (WVS), since 1995 Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, since 1996 International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies (ISQOLS), since 1998 East Asia Barometer, since 2001 Asian Barometer, since 2005 Asian Network for Public Opinion Research (ANPOR), since

5 SELF-SUSTAINED OPERATIONS: Research and consultancy contracts Survey subscriptions Commissioned surveys Research grants Publications charges Fellows membership fees 5

6 4 major areas 17 regions 80 provinces 1,491 municipalities 143 cities 42,028 villages 301,000 km 2 7,107 islands 2010 population = 92.34M 6

7 POVERTY has always been on the SWS research agenda. SELF-RATED POVERTY is SWS s global innovation for rapid-monitoring of poverty over time. 7

8 QUESTION ON SELF-RATED POVERTY Question: Saan po ninyo ilalagay ang inyong pamilya sa kard na ito? (Where would you place your family in this card?) HINDI MAHIRAP (Not poor) MAHIRAP (Poor) MAHIRAP (Poor) HINDI MAHIRAP (Not poor) Languages Poor Not Poor Tagalog Mahirap Hindi Mahirap Cebuano Pobre Dili Pobre Bicolano Pobre Bacong Pobre Ilocano Napanglaw Saan nga Napanglaw Ilonggo Imol Indi Imol Pangasinense Mairap Aliwan Mairap Waray Pobre Diri Pobre Maguindanon Miskinan Dikena Miskinan 8

9 % of families SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE MAHIRAP, PHILIPPINES, APR 1983 TO AUG 2012 MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO 70 Self-Rated Poverty 50 47% NSCB Unrefined Poverty* 26% 21% NSCB Refined Poverty, Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor) *Note: The NSCB figures, which compare income of the year to the official poverty line, are plotted in June of the year. 9

10 % of families SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE MAHIRAP, BY LOCATION, JUL 1985 TO AUG 2012 MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO Visayas 63% Mindanao 57% Bal. Luzon 38% NCR 35% * Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor) 10

11 Statistics on hunger, self-rated food-poverty, and the self-rated poverty line are SWS innovations. 11

12 % of households DEGREE OF HUNGER IN HOUSEHOLDS, PHILIPPINES: JUL 1998 TO AUG ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO Total Hunger (Ave = 14.4%) 21.0% 18.0% 10 Moderate (Ave = 11.0%) 5 Severe (Ave = 3.5%) % Note: Don t Know and Refused responses are not shown. Q: Nitong nakaraang 3 buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? KUNG OO: Nangyari po ba yan ng MINSAN LAMANG, MGA ILANG BESES, MADALAS, o PALAGI? 12

13 All SWS surveys are amenable to SOCIAL CLASS-ANALYSIS, using categories familiar to business research. Social class is a powerful discriminant of many Social Weather conditions. 13

14 CRITERIA FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION OF HOUSEHOLDS Households are classified into four groups as follows: AB (Upper Class) - the most affluent group whose homes and lifestyles exude an obvious disregard for or lack of economizing. C (Middle Class) - middle class households, whose homes and lifestyles reflect comfortable living and the capacity to indulge in a few luxuries. D (Lower Class) - lower-middle class household who have some comfort and means but basically thrive on a hand-to-mouth existence. E (Extremely Lower Class)- those who evidently face great difficulties in meeting their basic survival needs. 14

15 CRITERIA FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION (CONTINUED) 15

16 NET OPTIMISM* ON THE ECONOMY, BY CLASS, SEP 1998 TO MAY 2012 ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO D +3 E 0 ABC * % Will be better minus % Will be worse. Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, ano sa palagay ninyo ang mangyayari sa ekonomiya ng Pilipinas? Masasabi ba ninyo na ito ay...[bubuti; KAPAREHO LANG; SASAMA; HINDI ALAM] 16

17 Gainers/losers and optimists/pessimists are standard global indicators of trends in the quality of life. 17

18 % of adults CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE OVER PAST 12 MONTHS, APR 1983 TO AUG 2012 MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO LOSERS 30 28% 21% 10 GAINERS Question : Comparing your quality of life these days to how it was 12 months ago, would you say that your quality of life is... (Better now, Same as before, Worse now) Gainers :"Better now" Losers: "Worse now 18

19 % of adults EXPECTED CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE IN NEXT 12 MONTHS, APR 1984 TO AUG 2012 MARCOS CORY AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO BENIGNO AQUINO III OPTIMISTS 30 34% 10 PESSIMISTS 7% Question. In your opinion, what will be the quality of your life in the coming 12 months? Would you say that it... (Will be better, Same, Will be worse) Optimists : "Will be better Pessimists: "Will be worse" 19

20 SWS surveys monitor ratings of governance in the Philippines. 20

21 NET SATISFACTION RATINGS* OF PRESIDENTS, PHILIPPINES, MAY 1986 TO AUGUST 2012 C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO * Net ratings = % Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied correctly rounded. Survey Data: Social Weather Stations surveys. 21

22 NET* SATISFACTION WITH GENERAL PERFORMANCE OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION, FEB 1989 AUG 2012 C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO Net* Satisfaction * Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded. 22

23 NET* SATISFACTION WITH THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION ON SPECIFIC ISSUES, DEC 2011 AUG 2012 Dec11 Mar12 May12 Aug12 Overall performance rating Helping the victims of disasters Helping the poor Promoting welfare of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) Foreign relations Defending the country's territorial rights Distributing lands to deserving tillers under land reform Transparency in providing info about gov't activities Fighting terrorism Providing jobs -17 (Mar06) +43 Fighting crimes Promoting foreign investments in our country Eradicating graft and corruption Reconciliation with Muslim rebels Reconciliation with Communist rebels Ensuring that no family will be hungry Fighting inflation Ensuring that oil firms don t take advantage of oil prices Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice * Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded. Excellent Very good Good Moderate Neutral 23

24 SWS conducts pre-election and exits polls. 24

25 Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections (page 1 of 2) Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll** * COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998 ** Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos 25

26 Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections (page 2 of 2) Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll** * COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998 ** Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos 26

27 Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll** (page 1 of 2) * COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May ** Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position). 27

28 Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll** (page 2 of 2) * COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May ** Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position). 28

29 Pangilinan Angara Lacson COMPARING % Magsaysay OFFICIAL RESULTS WITH SWS 40.7% % EXIT POLL 37.6% May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections rcito Estrada 37.9% 40.5% 12 Villar 7 Recto 37.1% 35.2% 39.7% Pangilinan % % De Honasan Castro % 34.5% 39.1% 58.6% Angara 9 Flavier 42.5% 2 35% 36.6% Enrile % 40% 38.1% Lacson % COMELEC RESULTS 41.9% Osmeña % nsor-santiago 15 As of August 30, % Ejercito Estrada 31.1% 39.2% 34.5% 40.9% Drilon % 37.9% Puno 16 Recto % 37.6% 35.2% SWS EXIT POLL 37.8% Honasan % Arroyo % % May 15, 2001 Broadcast Tañada 26.6% 39.5% Enrile 35% 14 Magsaysay 40.7% % 32.1% 18 COMELEC RESULTS Mercado 22.7% 37.6% 34.8% Defensor-Santiago 15 As of August 30, % 40.5% Villar 7 26% Pagdanganan 19 23% 37.1% 31.5% Puno % SWS EXIT POLL 39.7% Pangilinan % Herrera % 17 May 15, 2001 Broadcast Tañada 22.2% 26.6% 38.1% 39.1% Monsod Angara % 26.8% Mercado 21.5% 22.7% 36.6% 26% % Lacson 10 0% 0% Pagdanganan 10% 10% 20% 20% 30% 23% 30% 24.6% 34.8% 40% 40% 50% 50% 60% 60% 70% Herrera 22.2% 38.1% Flavier Osmeña Drilon Arroyo % 38.1% 39.1% 36.6% 38.1% 34.8% 40% 41.9% 39.2% 40.9% 37.6% 40.7% 39.5% (page 1 of 2)

30 Magsaysay Villar % 40.5% 37.1% 39.7% 38.1% 39.1% 36.6% 38.1% 34.8% 38.1% 34.5% 37.9% 35.2% 37.8% 34.5% 35% 32.1% 34.8% 31.1% 31.5% 26.4% 29.5% 26.6% 26.8% 22.7% 26% 23% 24.6% 22.2% 24.3% 21.5% COMPARING OFFICIAL RESULTS WITH SWS EXIT POLL Pangilinan 8 May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections Angara Lacson Ejercito Estrada Recto Honasan Enrile Defensor-Santiago Puno Tañada Mercado Pagdanganan Herrera Monsod COMELEC RESULTS As of August 30, 2001 SWS EXIT POLL May 15, 2001 Broadcast (page 2 of 2) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70 30

31 50% 40% 30% Villar THE 2010 PRESIDENTIAL RACE Aquino III Estrada 20% 10% 0% Estrada * * * * * * * Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May May Villar Teodoro Villanueva Gordon The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 31

32 THE HISTORIC TV5/SWS 2010 EXIT POLL For the first time in Philippine history, a statistical sample of voters was polled only 50+ meters away from Voting Centers (VCs). From 802 randomly chosen exit poll VCs, SWS interviewed an unprecedentedly massive total of 52,573 voters. The exit poll s average absolute differences from Comelec percentages were only in the P- count and in the VP-count. In the senatorial count, the correlation of exit poll ranks with Comelec ranks was.992. The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 32

33 PRESIDENTIAL VOTES: TV5-SWS EXIT POLL VS. FINAL OFFICIAL COMELEC TALLY, PHILIPPINES, MAY 10, 2010 AQUINO ESTRADA VILLAR TEODORO VILANUEVA GORDON PERLAS MADRIGAL DE LOS REYES COMELEC Count* TV5-SWS Exit Poll** * Based on 238 COCs, June 8, 2010, 3:17 pm ** Sample size: 52,573 AVE. ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE: The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 33

34 VICE-PRESIDENTIAL VOTES: TV5-SWS EXIT POLL VS. FINAL OFFICIAL COMELEC TALLY, PHILIPPINES, MAY 10, 2010 BINAY ROXAS LEGARDA FERNANDO MANZANO YASAY SONZA CHIPECO * Based on 238 COCs, June 8, 2010, 3:17 pm ** Sample size: 52, COMELEC Count* TV5-SWS Exit Poll** AVE. ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE: The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 34

35 SWS DATA LIBRARY Only one of its kind in Southeast Asia Specialized on public opinion and social survey research 35

36 SWS DATA BANK: Archives all SWS survey datasets, as well as selected foreign surveys As of August 2012, the collection has grown to 433 (214 National, 219 Subnational) Philippine datasets encompassing 247,804 interviews on 66,885 survey questions and over 200 foreign datasets 36

37 #52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City Tels: , , ,