The 2016 SWS Survey Review

Transcription

1 The 2016 SWS Survey Review Mahar Mangahas 27 January 2016 TPIC/Bancom Room, 3/F Asian Institute of Management, Makati City This 2016 Survey Review is based on the four quarterly Social Weather Surveys of 2015, the Special Mindanao Survey of Feb 2015, in partnership with The Asia Foundation, the Nov 2014-May 2015 Survey of Enterprises, supported by Integrity for Investments Initiative and the United States Agency for International Development, in partnership with the National Competitiveness Council and The Asia Foundation, 2 1

2 the SWS own-account pre-election surveys of Dec 12-14, 2015 and Jan 8, 2016, and the Nov 26-28, 2015 pre-election survey commissioned by Mr. William J. Lima. SWS gratefully acknowledges its research partners and its media partner BusinessWorld, who believe in the importance of openly-disclosed social surveys in a democratic society. 3 SWS Surveys in this Review Dates Coverage Sample size Population Nov 14-May 15 Seven areas 966 Enterprises Feb 22-Mar 1, 15 Mindanao 1,900 Adults Mar 20-23, 15 National 1,200 Adults Jun 5-8, 15 National 1,200 Adults Sep 2-5, 15 National 1,200 Adults Nov 26-28, 15 National 1,200 Registered Voters Dec 5-8, 15 National 1,200 Adults Dec 12-14, 15 National 1,200 Registered Voters Jan 8, 16 National 1,200 Validated Voters 4 2

3 Topics 1. Pope Francis 2. Public morale 3. Poverty and hunger 4. Public safety 5. Satisfaction with officials and institutions 6. Report card of the national administration 7. Opinion polls on the Mindanao peace process 8. Corruption in government 9. Foreign affairs 10. Election surveys 5 SWS TERMS FOR SATISFACTION OR TRUST NET RATING EXCELLENT VERY GOOD GOOD MODERATE NEUTRAL POOR BAD VERY BAD 6 3

4 RECENT TRUST IN POPE FRANCIS IS EXCELLENT; TRUST IN ALL POPES IS VERY GOOD OR BETTER Pope John Paul II Pope Benedict Pope Francis Net Trust Dec 1994 Apr 1995 Dec 2003 Mar 2005 May 2005 Sep 2013 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Q. Maaari po bang sabihin ninyo kung ang pagtitiwala ninyo kay (name) ay NAPAKALAKI, MEDYO MALAKI, HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT, MEDYO MALIIT, NAPAKALIIT, O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN tungkol kay (name)? 7 TRUST IN POPE FRANCIS CLOSELY DEPENDS ON RELIGION Catholics +90 Net +90 Trust Other Christians Sep13 Dec14 Mar15 Muslims Iglesia ni Cristo Q. Maaari po bang sabihin ninyo kung ang pagtitiwala ninyo kay (name) ay NAPAKALAKI, MEDYO MALAKI, HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT, MEDYO MALIIT, NAPAKALIIT, O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN tungkol kay (name)? 8 4

5 % of adults Copyright 2016 Public morale is exceptionally high 9 SATISFACTION WITH LIFE IS AT A PEAK SINCE Very satisfied Sep02 Jun03 Nov03 Jun04 May05 Mar06 Sep10 Jun11 Mar12 Dec13 Jun14 Dec14 Sep15 May02 Nov02 Sep03 Feb04 Aug04 Aug05 Dec08 Nov10 Dec11 Dec12 Mar14 Sep14 Mar15 Fairly satisfied Not very satisfied Not at all satisfied Question. Sa kabuuan, kayo po ba ay LUBOS NA NASISIYAHAN, MEDYO NASISIYAHAN, HINDI NASISIYAHAN, LUBOS NA HINDI NASISIYAHAN sa buhay na inyong nararanasan? Masasabi po ba na kayo ay.. (SHOWCARD)? [LUBOS NA NASISIYAHAN; MEDYO NASISIYAHAN; HINDI NASISIYAHAN; LUBOS NA HINDI NASISIYAHAN] 10 5

6 70 OPTIMISM ABOUT PERSONAL QUALITY OF LIFE HAS BEEN VERY HIGH FOR SIX YEARS MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO III % of adults 50 OPTIMISTS 45% PESSIMISTS * % Question. Sa inyong opinyon, ano ang magiging uri ng inyong pamumuhay sa darating na 12 buwan? Masasabi ba ninyo na ang uri ng inyong pamumuhay ay [BUBUTI; KAPAREHO LANG; SASAMA; HINDI ALAM]? Optimists : Bubuti Pessimists: Sasama 11 ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO % of adults OPTIMISM ABOUT THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY HAS ALSO BEEN VERY HIGH FOR SIX YEARS % it will improve 10 8% it will deteriorate Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, ano sa palagay ninyo ang mangyayari sa ekonomiya ng Pilipinas? Masasabi ba ninyo na ito ay... [BUBUTI; KAPAREHO LANG; SASAMA; HINDI ALAM]? 12 6

7 70 MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO % of adults THE TREND FROM PAST TO PRESENT QUALITY OF LIFE HAS ALSO BEEN VERY GOOD 50 LOSERS 30 31% 27% 10 GAINERS Kung ikukumpara ang uri ng inyong kasalukuyang pamumuhay sa nakaraang 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang uri ng inyong pamumuhay ay [MAS MABUTI NGAYON KAYSA NOON, KAPAREHO NG DATI, MAS MASAMA NGAYON KAYSA NOON] Gainers : Mas mabuti ngayon kaysa noon Losers: Mas masama ngayon kaysa noon 13 Poverty and Hunger: the long-term movements are downward 14 7

8 % of families % of families Copyright 2016 SELF-RATED POVERTY SINCE 1983 (QUARTERLY SINCE 1992) MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO % 2012 Q1-Q2 54.0% 2014 Q1-Q % 2013 Q1-Q2 50% 10 The SRP surveys anticipated official poverty s rise and fall Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor) *Note: The NSCB figures, which compare income of the year to the official poverty line, are plotted in June of the year. 15 SELF-RATED FOOD POVERTY SINCE 1988 (QUARTERLY SINCE 2000) 70 C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO 50 Self-Rated Food Poverty 30 33% Food Poverty Question: Based on the type of food eaten by your family, where would you place your family on this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor). 16 8

9 % of households % of households Copyright 2016 QUARTERLY HUNGER, ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO Total Hunger Moderate 11.7% 8.9% 5 Severe 2.8% Note: Don t Know and Refused responses are not shown. Q: Nitong nakaraang 3 buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? KUNG OO: Nangyari po ba yan ng MINSAN LAMANG, MGA ILANG BESES, MADALAS, o PALAGI? 17 ANNUAL AVERAGE HUNGER IS OVER THE HUMP '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Total Hunger Moderate Severe Q: Nitong nakaraang 3 buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? KUNG OO: Nangyari po ba yan ng MINSAN LAMANG, MGA ILANG BESES, MADALAS, o PALAGI? 18 9

10 % of Families Copyright 2016 Public Safety: Crime Victimization is falling, but the Sense of Insecurity in the Neighborhood continues 19 THE LONG-TERM TREND IN VICTIMIZATION BY CRIME IS FAVORABLE C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO Pickpocket/ Robbery, 6.5% Break-in, 3.1% Physical violence, 0.6% Carnap, 0.6% Question. Nais po naming malaman ang karanasan ninyo at ng iba pang miyembro ng inyong pamilyang nakatira dito, tungkol sa krimen. Kayo po ba o kahit na sinong miyembro ng inyong pamilya ay naging biktima ng (SHUFFLE CARDS)? 20 10

11 % OF ADULTS Copyright 2016 THE SENSE OF INSECURITY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD CONTINUES MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO 70 Afraid of home break-in 50 57% 47% 44% Many drug addicts around 30 Afraid to walk streets at night Percentage of those who agree with the statement "In this neighborhood,... * people are usually afraid that robbers might break into their houses. ; ** people are usually afraid to walk in the streets at night because it is not safe. ; *** there are already very many people addicted to banned drugs. 21 Satisfaction with key officials and institutions ranges from Good to Neutral 22 11

12 SURVEY RATINGS OF PRESIDENTS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +70 G *% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied correctly rounded. Ignores Don t Know and Refused to Answer responses. Question. Please tell me how satisfied or dissatisfied you are in the performance of [NAME] as President of the Philippines. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, undecided if satisfied or dissatisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, very dissatisfied? 23 SURVEY RATINGS OF VICE-PRESIDENTS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +70 Laurel Estrada Guingona De Castro Binay +24 M Arroyo

13 SURVEY RATINGS OF SENATE PRESIDENTS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +70 Gonzales Salonga Fernan Angara Maceda Drilon Enrile Gonzales Gonzales Ople Pimentel Drilon Villar Drilon + 7 N SURVEY RATINGS OF SPEAKERS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO De Venecia Villar Mitra De Venecia Belmonte Fuentebella Nograles - 1 N

14 SURVEY RATINGS OF CHIEF JUSTICES OF THE SUPREME COURT C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO -50 Teehankee Fernan Narvasa Davide Carpio** Panganiban Puno Corona Sereno - 1 N ** As Acting Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the Philippines. 27 SURVEY RATINGS OF THE SENATE AND HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +70 G Senate +16 House of Rep. M * Net ratings = % Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied. (Survey Data: surveys)

15 SURVEY RATINGS OF THE SUPREME COURT AND THE CABINET AS A WHOLE C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +70 M Supreme Court Cabinet M * Net ratings = % Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied. Survey Data: surveys. 29 SURVEY RATINGS OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO G

16 The 2015 Report Card of the national administration has grades ranging from Good to Neutral, and one Very Bad; there is no Poor or Bad subject. 31 ISSUES WITH GOOD GRADES IN REPORT CARDS OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION IN 2015 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Improving the quality of children s education +47 Providing enough supply of electricity Helping victims of disasters +42 Helping the poor Foreign relations Promoting the welfare of OFWs Protecting the environment +32 Promoting human rights +31 Ensuring that medicines are affordable +31 Defending the country's territorial rights Good (10) 32 16

17 ISSUES WITH MODERATE GRADES IN REPORT CARDS OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION IN 2015 Preparing for climate change Transparency of government activities +23 Giving justice Restoring peace to Mindanao Deciding quickly on important problems Telling the truth to the people +15 Providing jobs +11 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Moderate (7) 33 ISSUES WITH NEUTRAL GRADES OR WORSE IN REPORT CARDS OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION IN 2015 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Fighting terrorism Traffic management + 6 Rehabilitating areas damaged by conflict in Mindanao Ensuring oil firms don t take advantage of oil prices Reconciliation with Muslim rebels Fighting crimes Ensuring that no family will ever be hungry Reconciliation with Communist rebels Eradicating graft and corruption Fighting inflation Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice Neutral (10) Poor (0) Bad (0) Very Bad (1) 34 17

18 IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF CHILDREN'S EDUCATION, OCT JUN 2015 ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +47 G PROVIDING ENOUGH ELECTRICITY, OCT 1999 SEP 2015 ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +44 G

19 HELPING VICTIMS OF DISASTERS, DEC 1992 MAR RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +42 G HELPING THE POOR, DEC 1993 DEC 2015 RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO G

20 PROMOTING HUMAN RIGHTS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +31 G FOREIGN RELATIONS RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +35 G

21 PROMOTING THE WELFARE OF OFWs ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +32 G PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +32 G

22 ENSURING THAT MEDICINES ARE AFFORDABLE ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +31 G DEFENDING THE COUNTRY S TERRITORIAL RIGHTS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO G

23 TRANSPARENCY IN GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +23 M GIVING JUSTICE ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +18 M

24 RESTORING PEACE TO MINDANAO ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +18 M DECIDING QUICKLY ON IMPORTANT PROBLEMS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +15 M

25 TELLING THE TRUTH TO THE PEOPLE C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +15 M PROVIDING JOBS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +11 M

26 FIGHTING TERRORISM ARROYO B. AQUINO +7 N TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO + 6 N

27 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT, BY AREA: DEC 2000, MAR 2002 AND SEP 2015 ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO Dec 2000 Mar 2002 Sep NCR Bal. Luzon Visayas Mindanao ENSURING THAT OIL FIRMS DON'T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OIL PRICES B. AQUINO + 5 N * 2011 * 2012 * 2013 * 2014 * 2015 * 55 27

28 REHABILITATING AREAS DAMAGED BY CONFLICT WITH MUSLIM REBELS IN MINDANAO ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO + 5 N RECONCILIATION WITH MUSLIM REBELS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO + 4 N

29 FIGHTING CRIME C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO + 3 N ENSURING THAT NO FAMILY WILL BE HUNGRY ARROYO B. AQUINO + 2 N

30 RECONCILIATION WITH COMMUNIST REBELS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO + 1 N ERADICATING GRAFT AND CORRUPTION C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO N 1987 *

31 FIGHTING INFLATION C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO - 7 N RESOLVING THE MAGUINDANAO MASSACRE WITH JUSTICE ARROYO B. AQUINO VB 63 31

32 % of adults Copyright 2016 HOPES THAT THOSE INVOLVED IN THE MAGUINDANAO MASSACRE WILL BE PUNISHED: MIXED FINDINGS Mar '14 Jun '14 Sep '14 Jun '15 Sep ' Not hopeful at all Somewhat not hopeful Somewhat hopeful Very hopeful Q. Kayo po ba ay (SHOWCARD) na ang lahat ng mga kasangkot sa kaso ng Maguindanao massacre na ito ay mapaparusahan? (TALAGANG UMAASA, MEDYO UMAASA, MEDYO HINDI UMAASA, TALAGANG HINDI UMAASA) 64 Opinions on the Mindanao peace process are quite divided 65 32

33 FAMILIARITY WITH THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ON THE BANGSAMORO (FAB), THE ANNEXES AND THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), IS SLACKENING Partial Extensive but sufficient Only a little Almost none Dec Knowledge of the FAB Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Jun Mar Knowledge of the Annexes Mar Jun Knowledge of the BBL Mar MUSLIMS KNOW THE MOST, CATHOLICS THE LEAST, ABOUT THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW, MAR 2015 Total PH (100%) Muslims (5%) Partial Extensive but sufficient Only a little Almost none Iglesia ni Cristo (3%) Other Christians (13%) Catholics (78%) % of adults Noong Setyembre 2014, personal na isinumite ni Pang. Noynoy Aquino sa Kongreso ang Bangsamoro Basic Law, ang panukalang batas na bubuo ng bago at mas pinalawak na lugar na awtomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro. Mayroon na po ba kayong narinig o nabasa tungkol sa panukalang batas na ito o ngayon lamang po kayo may narinig o nabasa tungkol dito? Q85: Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law? Kayo po ba ay may (MALAWAK, BAHAGYA NGUNIT SAPAT, KAUNTI LAMANG, o HALOS WALA O WALA) na kaalaman? 67 33

34 APPROVAL OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW IS STRONG IN THE CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) Approve Undecided Disapprove Net* Philippines (Mar 15) Sulu Isabela City Tawi-Tawi Basilan Cotabato City LDN near ARMM Maguindanao Lanao del Sur Cot. Near ARMM *Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon sa Bangsamoro Basic Law, ang panukalang batas na bubuo ng bago at mas pinalawak na lugar na awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro? (SHOWCARD) (TALAGANG SANG-AYON, MEDYO SANG- AYON, HINDI TIYAK KUNG SANG-AYON O HINDI SANG-AYON, MEDYO HINDI SANG-AYON, TALAGANG HINDI SANG-AYON) APPROVAL OF THE PROPOSED BBL IS RELATED TO KNOWLEDGE ABOUT IT, PHILIPPINES, MAR 2015 Approve Undecided Disapprove Net* Total PH (100%) Extensive (4%) Partial but sufficient (13%) Only a little (47%) Almost none (36%) % of adults *Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded. Q87: Kayo po ba ay sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon sa Bangsamoro Basic Law, ang panukalang batas na bubuo ng bago at mas pinalawak na lugar na awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro? (TALAGANG SANG-AYON; MEDYO SANG-AYON; HINDI TIYAK KUNG SANG-AYON O HINDI SANG-AYON; MEDYO HINDI SANG-AYON; TALAGANG HINDI SANG-AYON) 69 34

35 % of adults Copyright 2016 BELIEF THAT THE PEACE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE MILF CAN STILL BE SUCCESSFUL DESPITE THE DEATH OF THE 44 MEMBERS OF THE PNP-SAF, CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015 Do not believe Believe Undecided 26 Q: Kayo po ba ay (SHOWCARD) na magiging matagumpay pa din ang kasunduang kapayapaan ng pamahalaan at ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) sa kabila ng pagkamatay ng 44 na miyembro ng Special Action Force o SAF ng Philippine National Police (PNP) sa Mamasapano, Maguindanao? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA) 70 TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS/GROUPS INVESTIGATING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE CASE, PHILIPPINES, MAR 2015 PNP Board of Inquiry (BOI) Much trust Undecided Little trust Net* Senate investigation House of Rep. investigation MILF investigation *Net figures (% Much Trust minus % Little Trust) correctly rounded. Q: Maaari po bang pakisabi ninyo kung gaano KALAKI o KALIIT ang inyong pagtitiwala sa mga institusyon o grupong ito na makapagbibigay ang mga ito ng makatarungang desisyon ukol sa kasong ito. Masasabi po ba ninyo na kayo ay may NAPAKALAKING PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALAKING PAGTITIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT ANG PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA, NAPAKALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN TUNGKOL SA (INSTITUSYON/GRUPO)? 71 35

36 Businessmen s reports of corruption in government continue to drop 72 NEW LOW 32% WITH PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE OF PUBLIC SECTOR CORRUPTION IN THE LAST 3 MONTHS IN THEIR LINE OF BUSINESS, /15 Base: Total Who Say There Is Corruption in the Government >1 yr ago 7-12 mos. ago 4-6 mos. ago 2-3 mos. ago Last month Q52. When was the last time you had personal knowledge of a corrupt transaction with government by a company in your sector of business? 73 36

37 NEW LOW 39% SAYING MOST COMPANIES IN THEIR LINE OF BUSINESS GIVE BRIBES TO WIN PUBLIC SECTOR CONTRACTS, 2000 TO 2014/15 Base: Total Who Say Companies in Their Sector Allot a Percentage for Bribes to Win Public Sector Contracts None Hardly any Few Most Almost all Q53. In your line of business, how many companies do you think give bribes to win public sector contracts? 74 Foreign affairs: the tension with China is worrying the people 75 37

38 % of adults Copyright 2016 TRUST IN CHINA IS AT ITS LOWEST YET RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO +90 Net Trust +70 United States Australia Japan Saudi Arabia Malaysia -50 China OPINIONS ON GOVERNMENT S ACTIONS REGARDING SCARBOROUGH SHOAL HAVE BECOME MIXED Not enough knowledge Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove Somewhat approve Strongly approve Sep 2013 Jun 2014 Mar 2015 Q. Sa pangkalahatan, sumasang-ayon po ba kayo o hindi sumasang-ayon sa ikinikilos ng ating gobyerno ukol sa tensyon sa pagitan ng China at Pilipinas sa Scarborough Shoal? (SHOWCARD) (LUBOS NA SUMASANG-AYON, MEDYO SUMASANG-AYON, MEDYO HINDI SUMASANG-AYON, LUBOS NA HINDI SUMASANG-AYON; HINDI SAPAT ANG NALALAMAN PARA MAKAPAGBIGAY NG OPINYON) 77 38

39 % of adults Copyright 2016 MANY FILIPINOS ARE WORRIED ABOUT ARMED CONFLICT WITH CHINA IN CONNECTION WITH SCARBOROUGH SHOAL Not worried at all Not too worried Somewhat worried Sep 2012 Sep 2013 Jun 2014 Mar 2015 Worried a great deal Q. Gaano po kayo nababahala na magkaroon ng armadong labanan sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at China dahil sa mga pinagaawayang mga islang ito sa Scarborough Shoal? Kayo po ba ay (SHOWCARD) (TALAGANG NABABAHALA, MEDYO NABABAHALA, MEDYO HINDI NABABAHALA, TALAGANG HINDI NABABAHALA)? 78 Election surveys: experience shows how much the standings in the races can change 79 39

40 40% Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May May Aquino III THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2010 Aquino III (43) 30% 20% 10% Villar Estrada Teodoro Villanueva Gordon Estrada (26) Villar (15) Teodoro (10) Villanueva (3) Gordon (1) (Madrigal 0.2%, De Los Reyes 01.%, and Perlas 0.1%) 80 THE RACE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT IN 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May % 30% Roxas Legarda Binay (43) Roxas (39) 20% 10% Binay Fernando Manzano Yasay Legarda (12) Fernando (3) Manzano (2) Yasay (1) (Chipeco 0.4% and Sonza 0.2%) 81 40

41 THE NEW RACE FOR PRESIDENT, SO FAR Nov 27- Mar Jun Sep Nov Dec Jan Dec (No list) (No list) (No list) (12 names) (5 names) (10 names) (8 names) [A] [A] [A] [RV] [RV] [RV] [VV] 40 Binay 30 Poe 20 Roxas Santiago 10 Duterte Binay (31%) Poe (24%) Roxas (21%) Duterte (20%) Santiago (3%) Seneres (0.1%), Pamatong (0%), and Sabio (0%) Note: Respondents: A = Adults (18 years old and above); RV = Registered Voters; VV = Validated Voters. 82 THE NEW RACE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, SO FAR Mar Jun 5-8 Sep 2-5 Nov Dec Jan (No list) (No list) (13 names) (6 names) (19 names) (19 names) [A] [A] [RV] [RV] [RV] [VV] Escudero (28%) Marcos (25%) Robredo (17%) Cayetano (14%) Honasan (8%) Trillanes (3%) - - Alba (1%), Anima (0.5%), Aldea (0.4%), Barbasa (0.3%), De Asis (0.2%), Camilon (0.2%), Paredes (0.1%), Tibayan (0.1%), Mamon (0.1%), Baluga (0.1%), Palomares (0.1%), Malangen (0.1%), and Suerte (0.1%) Santiago Note: Respondents: A = Adults (18 years old and above); RV = Registered Voters; VV = Validated Voters

42 THE NEW RACE FOR SENATOR SO FAR (page 1 of 2) Sep 2-5 Dec Jan (44 names) (82 names) (82 names) [RV] [RV] [VV] Rank % Rank % Rank % Sotto, Vicente III C. "Tito" Lacson, Panfilo M. "Ping" Recto, Ralph "Ralph" Pangilinan, Kiko Drilon, Franklin M. "Frank" Osmeña, Sergio III D. "Serge" Zubiri, Juan Miguel F. "Migz" Pacquiao, Emmanuel D. "Manny" De Lima, Leila M. "Leila" Gordon, Richard J. "Dick" Guingona, Teofisto III D. "TG" Hontiveros, Ana Theresia "Risa" Moreno, Isko "Isko" THE NEW RACE FOR SENATOR SO FAR (page 2 of 2) Sep 2-5 Dec Jan (44 names) (82 names) (82 names) [RV] [RV] [VV] Rank % Rank % Rank % Lapid, Mark T Villanueva, Joel J. "Joel" Tolentino, Francis N Estrada, Marilou B Gatchalian, Sherwin T. "Win" Manzano, Eduardo B. "Edu" Romualdez, Martin G Moreno, Alma "Alma" Ople, Maria Susana V. "Toots" Chavez, Melchor G Romulo, Roman T. "Roman" Colmenares, Neri J. "Neri" Montano, Allan S

43 WOULD THIS PROMISE MAKE YOU VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE? PHILIPPINES, SEP 2015 Continuation of Pantawid Pamilya 80% 11% 8% Ensuring that needs of farmers are met* Ensuring that food needs are met* Promoting environment friendly farming* Continuation of Daang Matuwid Amendment of economic Probably Will not Probably yes affect me no provisions of the Constitution Enactment of Freedom of Information law Enactment of anti-political dynasty law Enactment of Bangsamoro Basic Law Enactment of divorce law *Item sponsored by Greenpeace. Other items are SWS sole responsibility. 86 SUMMARY-1 1. Trust in Pope Francis has gone from Very Good to Excellent 2. Public morale is exceptionally high 3. The long-term movements in Poverty and Hunger are downward 4. Crime victimization is falling, but the sense of insecurity in neighborhoods continues 5. Satisfaction with key officials and institutions ranges from Good to Neutral 87 43

44 SUMMARY-2 6. The 2015 Report Card of the national administration has subjects ranging from Good to Neutral, no Poor or Bad, and one Very Bad 7. Opinions on the Mindanao peace process are quite divided 8. Businessmen s reports of corruption in government continue to drop 9. The tension with China is worrying the people 10. Experience shows how much the standings in the election races can change 88 The SWS Annual Survey Reviews 2016 Edition containing the full presentations of the SWS Survey Reviews from 2001 to 2016 is available in CD- ROM at the SWS Survey Data Archives and Library. Inquire with Leo Laroza <leo.laroza@sws.org.ph> at or #52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City Tels: , , , sws_info@sws.org.ph 44