Including: SBB s Newsletter Play of the Year

Transcription

1 2014 WEEK 14 $25 Featuring the SDQL Including: SBB s Newsletter Play of the Year NFL Player Trends, SBB s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends w/sdql! MTI s Newsletter Teaser Plays... Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4-Star Seattle +7, Pittsburgh +9.5 Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Seahawks are 19-0 ATSp6 as a dog. The Steelers are 18-0 ATSp6 vs any team that has won three straight games. Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week 5-Star San Francisco +1, New Orleans pk, Cleveland Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Fortyniners are 29-0 ATSp10 when favored over any team that has averaged less than five rushing first downs per game. The Saints are 22-0 ATSp10 at home when their ATS margin improved in each of the past three games. The Browns are 22-0 ATSp10 as a dog after a loss as a road dog. In This Issue: MTi s Week 14 Selections... 2 SportsBook Breakers Week 14 Selections... 3 The Power of Two-Team Teasers... 4 SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System... 4 Cajun Sports College Football System... 5 SBB s Five NFL Trends to Watch in Week SBB s NCAA Trends to Watch... 6 SBB s Featured NFL Trend... 7 NFL Schedule Chart... 8 NFL Trends and Notes SBB s NFL Player Trends NFL Handicapping Bible Trends Tracking The 2014 Season... While the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex and very specific handicapping information, it is also just as useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we will track basic handicapping situations over the full season, as well as how they ve gone the past three weeks. Situation 2014 ats record ats record Last 3 Weeks Home Home Dog Home Favorite Off a win Off a Cover Passes Per Game 35.1 passes 34.5 passes Rushes Per Game 26.8 rushes 26.8 rushes Average Total Score 46.1 ppg ppg.

2 MTi s NFL Selections / Week 14 MTi s Newsletter Side 4-Star NY Giants -1.5 over Tennessee -- We lost our Side Play of the Year last week when Jacksonville s defense had two fumble-recovery touchdowns to come back from a 21-0 deficit. The Giants dominated time and possession and were 3-4 inside the red zone whereas the Jaguars were 0-2. If the Giants won last week we would be laying over a field goal here. The Giants have tremendous line value here. Last week Rashad Jennings had 26 carries and this is a positive sign. The Giants are 14-0 ATS on the road after a game in which any player had 22-plus carries. The SDQL text is: team=giants and A and max:p:rushes>=22 and season >= 2006 The Giants have covered by a healthy 15.0 ppg in this situation. In their last two active dates, they beat the 49ers 26-3 getting 6 in SF and hammered the Redskins getting 3.5 in Washington. It is interesting to speculate how the Giants might perform off a close loss, but it is more useful to check the actual results. NY is 10-0 ATS the week after a loss to a non-divisional opponent by less than a TD in which they had at least 15 first downs. The SDQL text is: team=giants and -7<p:margin<0 and p:fd>=15 and p:ndiv and NB and date>= Titans young receiver Kendall Wright had seven receptions last week, including a 36-yarder for a TD. This is a negative indicator. Tennessee is 0-11 ATS after a road game in which they had a 25-plus yard reception and 0-8 ATS at home after a game in which any player had five-plus receptions. Finally, the Giants defense has allowed an average of 385 yards of offense per game this season. This is 29th in the league and it is a big reason why we are laying such a small number here. However, the Titans simply do not have the offensive weapons at the skill positions to take advantage of this fact. As evidence, Tennessee is 0-12 ATS when facing any team that has allowed 350-plus yards of offense season-to-date. Check it out by running this SDQL text: team=titans and oa(o:ty) >= 350 and date>= If the Titans score two defensive TDs, we ll probably lose again. If they don t we ll probably win, so that is the way to bet. MTi s FORECAST: NY Giants 28 TENNESSEE 10 MTi s Newsletter Totals Play 4-Star San Francisco at Oakland OVER The 49ers have averaged 32:28 of possession time this season and this is third highest in the league. The Raiders defense is off a very poor performance so their offense must try to capitalize on every possession. As a result, Oakland has tended to go OVER as a home dog vs a team that has a high time of possession. In fact, the Raiders are 7-0 OU as a home dog vs a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season to date. Verify this by running the SDQL text below: team=raiders and HD and oa(top) >= 32*60 and season >= 2005 In their lone active date this season, they lost to the Chargers with the OU line at In fact, each of their last three has gone over by more than two TDs. The 49ers offense has not produced much lately, as they have scored 16, 17 and 3 points in each of their last three games. They will need to get their offense going if there are going to get to the playoffs and this is a great opportunity to do so. Road favorites that have scored fewer points than expected for three straight games have reeled off eleven straight overs since last December, as can be seen by running this SDQL text: AF and p:dpa < 0 and pp:dpa < 0 and ppp:dpa < 0 and date>= The Raiders have the worst turnover margin in the league this season at plus 1.5. The 49ers have gone over vs similar teams, as they are 13-0 OU when visiting any team that has a season to date turnover margin of at least per game more than their opponent and has forced at least 4.5 punts per game. The SDQL text is: team=fortyniners and A and oa(tom)>= and oa(o:punts)>=4.5 and season>= 1998 The Raiders will get their money s worth, by playing aggressively on both sides of the ball. Let s go OVER this low number. MTi s FORECAST: San Francisco 28 Oakland

3 SportsBook Breakers NFL Selections / Week 14 SBB s Newsletter Play of the Year 4.5-STAR Carolina over NEW ORLEANS - This is a crazy amount of points for New Orleans to be laying. Even playing at home hasn t been a safe haven, as they have lost three straight at home. A cardinal rule is to not lay this many points with bad team and New Orleans qualifies. At 5-7 on the season, New Orleans is far from a sure thing in another game. Past week three of the season, teams that are favored by more than six points that have not won at least 46% of their games on the season are ATS (line<=-6.5 and WP<46 and week>3). Carolina enters this on what can be considered a 6.5 game losing streak, having lost six straight games after a rare tie against Cincinnati. Teams on losing streaks of more than six games are ATS (streak<-6). Last week, Carolina lost in Minnesota. The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (13.56 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as an underdog coming off a road loss (team=panthers and D and p:al and date>= ). It was a strange game where they were throttled despite outgaining Minnesota yards. Teams that outgained their opponent by at least 99 yards but lost by 14+ last game are ATS (p:margin<=-14 and p:ty-po:ty>=99). Also, the Panthers are 10-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since 2011 the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent (team=panthers and p:l and po:ty < p:ty and NB and season>=2011). Even in the loss, Carolina had success running the ball with 33 carries for 178 yards. Teams that are coming off a double digit loss where they rushed the ball at least 30 times are ATS (p:rushes>=30 and p:margin<=-10). New Orleans meanwhile was just a 4-point underdog last game, defeating Pittsburgh Teams that are favorites of more than 4 points after winning as an underdog of at least 4 points last game are ATS (p:w and line<-4 and p:line>=4). The final score was a narrow win despite getting out to an even big lead with a dominating offense. The Saints are 0-10 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 2004 as a favorite in non-monday games after a 1-3 point win where they scored at least 17 points (team=saints and F and day!=monday and 0<p:margin<=3 and p:points>=17 and date>= ). Yet Jimmy Graham not only did not have a catch in that game, he did not get a single target. The Saints are 0-10 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since 2010 when playing a team winning at least 15% of his games the week after a win where Jimmy Graham had less than 42 receiving yards (Saints:Jimmy Graham:p:receiving yards<42 and p:w and NB and o:wp>=15 and season>=2010). They pounded Mark Ingram in that game who had 23 carries. The Saints are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 at home after having a ball carrier with more than 20 rushes last game (team=saints and H and 20<max:p:rushes and date>= ). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS by 1 SBB s Newsletter Total 4-STAR Buffalo and Denver Under - Peyton Manning has consistently played on teams that have allowed the fewest sacks in the league. That s no coincidence as it is Manning s doing. Playing one of the best pass rushes in the league, we expect the ball to come out quickly and for another heavy dose of running. On the other side, Buffalo s offense is built similarly to Kansas City s which was completely foiled by Denver last week. The Bills are heavy underdogs here and are not a team built to play from behind in a high scoring game. The Bills are 0-7 OU ( ppg) since Dec 16, 2007 as a dog on grass after a game as a home favorite (team=bills and D and surface=grass and p:hf and date>= ). Last week, Buffalo used defense to control a win over the Browns. They attempted five field goals in the win, making four of them. Teams that attempted at least five field goals last game are OU (p:field goals attempted>=5). That same system is also active on Denver, who attempted and made five field goals in a win over Kansas City last week. In that game, Denver got ahead and was happy to run the ball, with 45 carries for 214 yards in the loss. Teams in games where the total is over 44 who ran the ball more than 35 times last game are OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5). It was the emerging CJ Anderson with the bulk of that effort with 32 carries for 168 yards. Teams who have a rusher who had at least 152 yards rushing last game are OU (max:p:rushing yards>=152). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 41 points Vince Akins picks are found at Vegas Insider 2014 NFL Week 14 3

4 The Power of Two-Team Teasers One of the fantastic and unique features of is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week we ll show off five such two-team teaser trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of handicapping. Any trend with a p6 designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including m6 is for a play against/over 6-pt teaser. Teaser Trends The Raiders are ATSp6 (11.6 ppg) since December 12, 1993 coming off a road game where they controlled the ball for more than 34 minutes. The Dolphins are 17-0 ATSp6 (12.7 ppg) since October 24, 2010 coming off a road game when the line is within three of pick. The Lions are 0-25 ATSm6 (-10.6 ppg) since December 7, 1997 after scoring at least 34 points last game. Sports Data Query Language team=raiders and 34 * 60<p:TOP and p:a and date>= team=dolphins and -3<=line<=3 and p:a and date>= team=lions and 34<=tp:points and date>= The Eagles are 22-0 OUm6 (13.6 ppg) since November 27, 2008 coming off a game as a road dog. The Panthers are 17-0 OUm6 (14.5 ppg) since December 5, 2010 when playing on artifical turf. team=eagles and p:ad and date>= team=panthers and surface=artificial and date>= SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System SportsBook Breakers has spent the past season focused on league systems and has found over 100 that are winners at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league system here: Road favorites who have played at least three straight home games are ATS. SDQL TEXT: AF and p:h and pp:h and ppp:h 4 In every sport, college and professional, there is a major difference between playing at home and on the road. It is the big things like crowds and momentum building and the small stuff like travel and sticking to a routine. Playing at home really does matter, as we see with systems like this. System: Road favorites who have played at least three straight home games are ATS. When playing at home for three straight games, a scheduling quirk that usually happens to approximately three teams per season, teams will often look like world beaters. They get into a rhythm and routine, and it is easy to forget that this team may look far different on the road, where they have not played in four weeks or longer, and that expectations should not be too high. A perfect example of this is what happened the other time this system was active this season, in week 10 with Pittsburgh. The Steelers had just one three straight home games in dominating fashion against Houston, Indianapolis and Baltimore and were four-point favorites traveling to a struggling Jets team. The Steelers came unraveled on the road and turnovers killed them in a loss. This week, Indianapolis travels outdoors to Cleveland after going 2-1 in three straight home games against New England, Jacksonville and Washington. Don t get trapped by the Colts in this game.

5 Cajun Sports College Football System Play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of 16+ points or underdog of 28+ points) coming off a SU loss as a favorite of 19 or more points against a +.375% foe in their last game. SDQL Text game number > 1 and p:l and p:line < and Average(po:W@po:team and po:season) >.375 and 28 > line > -16 and date > System Analysis This week the college postseason begins for some with Conference Championship Games highlighting a rather short college football schedule. We have mentioned many times this season that the inaugural college playoff selection system could well provide a shocking result or the committee would get hammered by teams that think they belong in that all-important fourth and final spot. The shock has happened for Seminoles fans with TCU jumping the defending National Champs without them losing a single game. The Seminoles are on the bubble and could fail to make the playoffs without losing a game, unreal. This will certainly be interesting to watch as it plays itself out over the last portion of the regular season and championship games. We will be watching Last week we watched as the Thundering Herd of Marshall came off the rails entering a home game favored by 24 points and riding a perfect straight up record for the season with eleven wins and zero losses. If you did not know the outcome of the game and I said to you Marshall scored 66 points against Western Kentucky one would assume they blew out the boys from WKU or at least won the game based on their previous performances this season. We all know now you would be wrong they lost straight up 67 to 66 at home favored by more than three touchdowns. With that in mind we wanted to know how teams respond in these types of situations. In setting the parameters we wanted a team coming off a huge upset loss against an opponent who had a losing record on the season. We tried several different straight up records for the opposing team as well as several different line ranges. Due to the extremes involved in the loss we wanted to make sure we isolated a situation that took those types of extremes out of the equation for this system. Such as we did not want a favorite of say 17 or more points or an underdog of more than four touchdowns, these extremes caused a decrease in value for the system overall and skewed the results. Once the baseline parameters were set we found that teams coming off a huge upset loss had trouble bouncing back their next time out even when opposed by teams with a losing record. The system we uncovered has not been perfect but the play against teams have not been able to win more than twenty percent of the time dating back to 1988 against the spread in this situation losing by an average of points per game against the number. That is 80 percent winners against the spread when fading these upset losers. With all the system parameters met this weeks Cajun-Sports NCAA Football System of the Week calls for a play AGAINST the Marshall Thundering Herd as they play host to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on Saturday December 6. Cajun-Sports NCAA Football System of the Week plays on the LA Tech Bulldogs plus the points. Have a great week and weekend and as always good luck. SU: (-3.77, 38.7%) ATS: (-7.08, 19.4%) avg line: -3.3 O/U: (-1.77, 41.7%) avg total: 60.3 Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing Yds TrnOvrs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team Opp Date Day WeekSeason Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Dec 02, 2006 Saturday WVA RUT home W L O 3 Oct 06, 2007 Saturday OKLA TEX neutral W L U 0 Sep 20, 2008 Saturday AZST GEO home L L U 0 Oct 31, 2009 Saturday NEB BAY away W L U 0 Oct 31, 2009 Saturday TXT KAN home W W U 0 Sep 18, 2010 Saturday MIN USC home L W U 0 Oct 29, 2011 Saturday OKLA KAST away W W O 0 Dec 03, 2011 Saturday OKST OKLA home W W U 0 Oct 06, 2012 Saturday GTCH CLEM away L L O 0 Nov 24, 2012 Saturday ORE ORST away W W O 0 Jan 01, 2014 Wednesday WIS SCAR neutral L L O 0 Oct 11, 2014 Saturday ORE UCLA away W W P 0 Nov 15, 2014 Saturday AUB GEO away L L U 0 Dec 06, 2014 Saturday MRSH LTCH neutral NFL Week 14 5

6 SBB s Five NFL Trends to Watch: Week 14 Trends The Seahawks are 10-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since October 19, 2008 when they play the 49ers next game. The Eagles are 0-11 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since 2011 as a favorite against a team that has committed less than 1.3 turnovers per game. The Saints are 0-10 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 2004 as a favorite in non-monday games after a 1-3 point win where they scored at least 17 points. The Seahawks are 16-0 OU (10.9 ppg) since December 6, 1998 on the road coming off a win when playing a team with more wins of the season. The Falcons are 0-12 OU (-10.1 ppg) since November 21, 1993 after a win as an underdogs where they rushed the ball at least 10 times more than their season-to-date average. Sports Data Query Language team=seahawks and no:team=fortyniners and n:nb and n:playoffs=0 and date>= team=eagles and F and oa(turnovers)<1.3 and season>=2011 team=saints and F and day!=monday and 0<p:margin<=3 and p:points>=17 and date>= team=seahawks and A and p:w and wins<o:wins and date>= team=falcons and p:dw and ta(p:rushes)+ 10<=p:rushes and date>= SBB s College Football Trends to Watch ( ) Trends Central Florida is ATS (11.5 ppg) since October 27, 2012 coming off a road game. TCU is 11-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since November 2005 after a game where they covered by at least 17 points as a favorite but did not win by 69+ or score 80+, if they did not win by 40 or more last time they faced this team. Houston is 10-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since November 17, 2012 on the road. Temple is 10-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 17, 2007 when the total is between 41 and 66 following a game where they scored less than 17 points and did not fail to cover by more than 5 points. Georgia Tech is 9-0 ATS (17.3 ppg) since October 29, 2011 if not more than a TD dog coming off a game as a road dog. Sports Data Query Language team=cfl and p:a and date>= team =TCU and date >= and 17 <= p:ats margin and p:margin < 69 and p:points<80 and P:margin < 40 and p:f team=hou and A and date>= team=tem and p:points<17 and 66>=total>=41 and p:ats margin>=-5 and date>= team=gtch and p:ad and line<=7 and date>= Purchase SportsBook Breakers College & Pro Football Selections each week at Vegas Insider 6

7 SportsBook Breakers NFL Trend of the Week The Fortyniners are 15-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since December 2, 1996 as an away favorite against a team that throws at least 35.7 passes per game. SDQL Text team = Fortyniners and AF and oa(passes) >= 35.7 and date >= System Analysis The 49ers have had one of the best pass defenses in the league for several seasons. This season is no different and as this trend shows, throwing against San Francisco is rarely the answer. Active Trend: The Fortyniners are 15-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since December 2, 1996 as an away favorite against a team that throws at least 35.7 passes per game. While this trend dates back nearly 20 seasons, the crux of the trend is based on this current iteration as nine of the 15 instances have comes since Over that time, San Francisco has consistently been one of the league s best defenses. That has starts with their pass defense which has been in the top seven each of the past three years. In game where they are road favorites, inferrior teams will generally have to throw against San Francisco as is. So when they are a pass heavy team to begin with, they become one dimensional quickly and a defense as good as the 49ers can feast on that. Looking at the game log that has been the case, as San Francisco s opponents in these games have thrown the ball 39.6 times per game and run just 20.2 times per game. Their passes have gone for a paltry 5.4 yards per attempt and the San Francisco defense has jumped all over them, forcing 2.7 turnovers per game. This week, San Francisco travels to Oakland where they are 8-point favorites against a team that has thrown the ball 39.6 times per game. Consider the 49ers here. SU: (17.73, 100.0%) ATS: (12.53, 100.0%) avg line: -5.2 O/U: (0.27, 53.3%) avg total: 43.2 Query Output Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing Yds TrnOvrs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team Opp Day WeekSeason Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSrOUr ot Monday Fortyniners Falcons away W W U 0 Monday Fortyniners Panthers away W W O 0 Monday Fortyniners Eagles away W W U 0 Monday Fortyniners Redskins away W W O 0 Monday Fortyniners Cardinals away W W U 0 Sunday Fortyniners Chargers away W W O 0 Sunday Fortyniners Redskins away W W U 0 Monday Fortyniners Cardinals away W W U 0 Sunday Fortyniners Saints away W W O 0 Sunday Fortyniners Falcons away W W O 0 Thursday Fortyniners Rams away W W O 0 Sunday Fortyniners Jaguars away W W O 0 Monday Fortyniners Redskins away W W U 0 Monday Fortyniners Rams away W W O 0 Sunday Fortyniners Giants away W W U 0 Sunday Fortyniners Raiders away SportsBook Breakers is over +$2,500 for the $100 player on NFL selections the past four years. Find SportsBook Breakers selections every week at Vegas Insider under Vince Akins NFL Week 14 7

8 2014 NFL Week 14 Time Teams Prev. Next Lines Final Notes 8:25 THUR 1;00 1;00 4:05 4:05 4:25 4:25 8:30 8:30 MON Dallas at Chicago Tampa Bay at Detroit N.Y. Jets at Minnesota St. Louis at Washington Baltimore at Miami Carolina at New Orleans Pittsburgh at Cincinnati N.Y. Giants at Tennessee Indianapolis at Cleveland Houston at Jacksonville Kansas City at Arizona Buffalo at Denver Seattle at Philadelphia San Francisco at Oakland New England at San Diego Atlanta at Green Bay L vs PHL^ DET^ L vs CIN W vs CHI^ L vs MIA# W vs CAR W vs OAK IND L vs SD NYJ# MIN PIT L vs NO TB JAC HOU W vs WAS BUF W vs TEN W vs NYG L vs DEN* ATL W vs CLE KC* SF^ DAL^ L vs SEA^ STL GB BAL W vs ARZ W vs PHL* vs CAR vs DET vs NYG vs NE vs CLE vs WAS vs NYJ vs HOU vs BAL vs STL^ vs SD vs SF vs KC vs MIA vs DEN vs BUF #On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night Notes: 8

9 Trends and Notes / Week 14 Cowboys at Bears - The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS (-8.00 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 as a favorite when their ATS margin has decreased in each of the last two games. The Bears are ATS (-7.11 ppg) since Oct 25, 2009 the week after a game where they threw at least 10 passes more than their season-to-date average. The Bears are 9-0 OU (13.56 ppg) since Dec 25, 2011 as a dog when facing a team that allowed at least 400 yards of total offense last game. Steelers at Bengals - The Steelers are ATS (9.85 ppg) since Nov 03, 2008 when facing a team with more wins coming off a home game. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (16.69 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 when facing a team on at least a two-game winning streak. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (20.71 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 as an underdgo against teams with more wins. The Bengals are 0-9 OU (-9.67 ppg) since Nov 30, 2006 as a home favorite when they allowed fewer points than expected in each of the past two games. The Bengals are 0-9 OU ( ppg) since Sep 10, 2000 as a favorite against a team that have completed at least 65% of their passes on the season. Bills at Broncos - The Bills are 0-12 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 02, 2001 as at least a seven-point dog on grass following a home game. The Broncos are 8-0 ATS (11.00 ppg) since Nov 19, 2007 the week after an away win where they benefitted from a turnover margin of at least +2. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Jan 02, 2000 at home as a favorite of at least seven-points when there passing yards decreased in each of their last two games. The Bills are 7-0 OU (8.29 ppg) since Oct 09, 2011 as a favorite after a game where they had a defensive touchdown. The Broncos are 7-0 OU (12.50 ppg) since Nov 28, 2004 at home the week after a game where they allowed less than 50 rushing yards. Colts at Browns - The Browns are ATS (-9.06 ppg) since Nov 04, 1990 at home when the line is within three of pick facing a team that has punted fewer than four times per game. The Colts are 9-0 OU (15.17 ppg) since Oct 03, 2010 as away favorite coming off a game as a favorite. Chiefs at Cardinals - The Chiefs are ATS (9.10 ppg) since Sep 19, 2013 on the road after a game where they threw for a touchdown. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (12.07 ppg) since Sep 19, 2013 the week after a game where they allowed at least four sacks. The Cardinals are ATS (8.12 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 coming off a game as a favorite. The Chiefs are 0-8 OU ( ppg) since Dec 19, 2010 and the week asfter a game as an underdog where they had at least three minute less time of possession than their season-to-date average. The Cardinals are 7-0 OU (13.14 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 as a home favorite the week after they allowed at least 300 yards passing. Patriots at Chargers - The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (14.72 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 as a favorite the week after a game where they had at least three minutes time of possession fewer than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 0-8 ATS (-8.56 ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 when playing on grass. The Chargers are ATS (-8.11 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 the week after a game where they picked up first downs on at least 40% of their plays. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (15.71 ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 as a favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Chargers are 0-7 OU ( ppg) since Sep 22, 2013 the week after a game where they threw for at least 300 yards. Ravens at Dolphins - The Ravens are 9-0 ATS (11.11 ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 the week after a loss where they had a receiver with at least five receptions. The Ravens are 7-0 OU (15.86 ppg) since Nov 25, 2001 the week after a home loss where they had a rusher with at least 75 yards. Seahawks at Eagles - The Seahawks are ATS (10.56 ppg) since Oct 09, 2011 when their passing yards have increased each of the past two weeks. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (-8.79 ppg) since Dec 16, 2007 on the road the week after a win where they had at least four sacks. The Seahawks are 0-8 OU ( ppg) since Nov 03, 2002 when the line is within three of pick and they are playing on grass the week after a win as an underdog. Texans at Jaguars - The Texans are ATS ( ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 the week after a win against the Titans. The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 and when they have allowed at least three sacks in each of the past two weeks. The Texans are 0-7 OU (-6.86 ppg) since Oct 11, 2009 the week after a win by at least 21 points. Buccaneers at Lions - The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS (9.79 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 as a road underdog of at least seven points when they are on the road next game as well. The Lions are 7-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) since Oct 06, 1991 at home the week after a home win by double digits where they led by at least seven points at half. The Lions are 0-9 OU ( ppg) since Dec 22, continued on page NFL Week 14 9

10 Trends and Notes / Week 14 continued 2013 as a favorite. Fortyniners at Raiders - The Fortyniners are ATS (9.33 ppg) since Oct 20, 2013 on the road facing a teams with fewer wins than them. The Raiders are 7-0 ATS (17.93 ppg) since Oct 18, 2009 as an underdog of at least seven points the week after an away game where they picked up first downs on fewer than 25% of their plays. The Fortyniners are OU (-8.50 ppg) since Jan 05, 2014 as a favorite when playing on grass. Rams at Redskins - The Redskins are ATS (-8.15 ppg) since Dec 23, 2001 at home the week after a game where they threw at least 10 passes more than their season-to-date average. The Rams are OU (12.80 ppg) since Dec 17, 1995 when the line is within three of pick after scoring more points than expected in each of their last two games. The Redskins are OU (-8.00 ppg) since Dec 12, 2004 at home against a team that allowed fewer than 250 total yards last game. Panthers at Saints - The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (13.56 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as an underdog the week after a road loss. The Saints are 9-0 ATS (11.72 ppg) since Oct 14, 1990 as a home favorite the week after a game as an underdog where they had fewer than 10 incompletions. The Saints are 7-0 ATS (12.07 ppg) since Nov 21, 2010 when their ATS margin improved each of the past two games. The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-7.38 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 against a divisional opponent. The Saints are 7-0 OU (9.50 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 at home after they scored more points than expected in each of their last two games. Giants at Titans - The Giants are 10-0 ATS (7.65 ppg) since Jan 02, 2005 the week after a loss where they had a ball carcontinued on page 11 SportsBook Breakers NFL Player Trends Trends The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since Dec 10, 2012 after a road game where Julian Edelman did not have a 20+ yard reception. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since November 2009 on the road after a game where Heath Miller had at least six receptions. The Lions are 0-7 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since November 24, 2013 after a game where Joique Bell had a rushing touchdown. The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since September 25, 2011 at home after a road game where Matt Forte had at least five receptions. The Eagles are 7-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since November 29, 2009 at home the week after a win where LeSean McCoy had a rushing TD. Sports Data Query Language Patriots:Julian Edelman:p:longest reception<20 and p:a and date>= A and 6<=Steelers:Heath Miller:p:receptions and date>= <Lions:Joique Bell:p:rushing touchdowns and date>= H and 5<=Bears:Matt Forte:p:receptions and p:a and date>= H and p:w and 0<Eagles:LeSean McCoy:p:rushing touchdowns and NB and date>=

11 Trends and Notes / Week 14 continued rier with at least 20 rushes. The Giants are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 the week after a road loss where they had a receiver with at least five receptions. The Titans are 0-9 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 05, 2010 when facing a teams that allowed at least four sacks last week. The Giants are 0-7 OU ( ppg) since Jan 22, 2012 on the road facing a team that allowed at least 400 total yards last game. The Titans are 8-0 OU (16.81 ppg) since Oct 18, 2009 when they lost by at least seven points each of the past two games. Jets at Vikings - The Vikings are 0-8 ATS (-9.88 ppg) since Dec 20, 2009 when facing a team that has passed for fewer than 10 first downs per game. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (11.50 ppg) since Sep 25, 2005 as a favorite the week after a game where they had fewer than 26 minutes time of possession. The Vikings are 0-8 OU (-9.88 ppg) since Dec 02, 1990 at home the week after a double digit win where they led by at least seven points at halftime. Falcons at Packers - The Falcons are ATS (-9.06 ppg) since Oct 14, 1990 as an underdog the week after a win where they threw for at least 300 yards. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (15.57 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 at home as a favorite of at least seven points facing a team that has thrown at least 35 passes per game. The Packers are 0-7 ATS (-9.00 ppg) since Oct 01, 1989 at home against the Falcons. NFL HANDICAPPING BIBLE Active Trends Trends Sports Data Query Language HOU006: The Texans are 0-12 ATS on the road after a home game in which they had at least 2.5 more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. CAR002: The Panthers are 10-0 ATS the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent. DEN002: The Broncos are 9-0 ATS when they won last week on the road while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2. MIN010: The Vikings are 0-9 ATS after a win as a home favorite. team=texans and p:top - ta(p:top) >= 150 and A and p:h and season >= 2006 team=panthers and p:l and po:ty < p:ty and NB and season>=2011 team=broncos and p:aw and p:tom<=-2 and season >= 2007 team=vikings and p:whf and season>=2010 STL012: The Rams are 0-11 OU on the road after a win in which they rushed for a TD. team=rams and A and p:rtd>0 and p:w and season>=2007 Every week there are several active trends available in the 2014 NFL Handicapping Bible. Check your copy to find trends not included here. If you have yet to download your copy, do so at COPYRIGHT NOTICE All the material in this publication is copyrighted by the United States Government. No part of this periodical may be reproduced in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, and electronic recording without written consent from Killer Sports Publishing. If the reader has any questions or comments about this newsletter, please write us at: Killer Sports Publishing or us at: PO Box 862, Berea OH support@killersports.com 2014 NFL Week 14 11