Including: Week 2 NFL selections+!!

Transcription

1 2015 WEEK 2 $25 Featuring the SDQL Including: Week 2 NFL selections+!! NFL Player Trends, SBB s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends MTI s Newsletter Teaser Plays... Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4-Star Miami -1, Texans +9 Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Dolphins are 24-0 ATSp6 on the road and vs an opponent forcing less than 1.25 turnovers per game. The Texans are 15-0 ATSp6 when the line is within 3 of pickem and vs an opponent committing less than 1.25 turnovers per game. Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4-Star Ravens +6.5, 49ers +15.5, Seattle Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Ravens are 36-0 ATSp10 on the road after a game in which they got a first down on at less than 25 percent of plays. The 49ers are 24-0 ATSp10 on the road and off a home game in which they had more than 150 rushing yards. The Seahawks are 23-0 ATSp10 after an overtime game. Hot Start for Vince Akins... Vince Akins of SportsBook Breakers had a huge week in both the NFL and NCAA last week. SBB s NFL selections went 6-3 last weekend, led by an impressive performance Monday night selecting both Atlanta and San Francisco to win outright. SBB s NCAA picks were even better last week, going 6-1 and coming a TD pass with under 20 seconds to play away from the perfect 7-0 week. In This Issue: MTi s Week 2 Selections... 2 SportsBook Breakers Week 2 Selections... 3 SBB s NFL Player Trends... 4 SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System... 4 Cajun Sports College Football System... 5 SBB s Five NFL Trends to Watch in Week SBB s NCAA Trends to Watch... 6 Pick Sixty Sports: Tips and Totals... 7 NFL Schedule Chart... 8 NFL Trends and Notes The Power of Two-Team Teasers NFL Annual Active Trends Tracking The 2015 Season... While the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex and very specific handicapping information, it is also just as useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we will track basic handicapping situations over the full season, as well as how they ve gone the past three weeks. Situation 2015 ATS record 2014 ATS record Home Home Dog Home Favorite Off a win NA Off a Cover NA Passes Per Game 34.8 asses 35.0 passes Rushes Per Game 26.5 rushes 26.7 rushes Average Total Score 45.2 ppg ppg.

2 MTi s NFL Selections / Week 2 MTi s Newsletter Side Play 4.5-Star Seattle +3.5 over GREEN BAY -- Russell Wilson was 32-of-41 last week against the Rams, but the Seahawks lost to the Rams in overtime and are now in serious danger of dropping to 0-2 before their home opener against the Bears. This line is an over-reaction to the week one results. We are on the Seahawks. Seattle is 13-0 ATS when their line is within four points of pick after a road game in which they had fewer than ten incompletions and fewer than two interceptions. The SDQL text is: team=seahawks and -4<=line<=4 and p:a and p:inc<=10 and p:int<2 and date> Note that Seattle won every game straight up, outscoring their opponent by an average of 13.0 ppg. We also have a character-revealing indicator which states that Seattle is 7-0 ATS since the start of the 2011 season on the road and vs a team with a better record, covering the spread by an average of 12.5 ppg. In their two qualifying games from last season, they beat the Eagles in Philadelphia when they were 8-4 and the Eagles were 9-3 and they beat the Cardinals 35-6 with Arizona was 11-3 and they were The SDQL text is a straightforward: team=seahawks and A and WP<o:WP and season>=2011 The Packers were turnover-free against the Bears and won as a big road favorite. Green Bay has been soft in this spot, going 0-7 ATS when the line is within 4 of pick the week after a win by more than a field goal in which they did not commit a turnover. The SDQL text is: team=packers and -4<=line<=4 and p:to=0 and p:margin>3 and NB and season>=2010 Note that the Packers only one ONE game straight up in this spot. In their two qualifying games from last season under these conditions, they lost to the Saints and to the Bills. The Seahawks have not been a FG-plus underdog since the start of the 2013 season. And the last 14 times they have been getting at least three points they are ATS. The SDQL text is team=seahawks and line>=3 and date>= The Bears were unable to expose how much Jordy Nelson meant to Aaron Rogers and the Packers. The Seahawks will. Grab the points. FORECAST: Seattle 27 GREEN BAY 20 MTi s Newsletter Totals Play 4-Star Arizona at Chicago UNDER The linemakers rate this one close to a toss-up so we expect the Bears to be very conservative on offense to avoid the costly Cutler turnover that could lead to losing their first two games of the season at home. The Cardinals should also feature their defense. Last week Arizona allowed Drew Brees to pass for 354 yards, but they forced four field goals and won Before the start of the 2011 season, we published the fact that the Cardinals were 0-9 OU when their line is within three points of pick and they are off a game in which they allowed 300-plus yards passing. Now the Cardinals are OU in this spot. In fact, they are OU after allowing at least 296 yards passing and the line is within 3 of pick. The SDQL text is a straightforward: team=cardinals and -3<=line<=3 and po:py>296 In addition, the Cardinals are 0-8 OU on the road the week after a home game when facing a team that has forced fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date and 0-6 on the road when the line is within 3 of pickem and vs a team getting less than 55% if their first downs through the air. The Bears are in a spot where they must win in order to keep the fans from a mutiny, as they play on Seattle next week. When they have been in this situation before the games have been low scoring. Chicago is 0-11 OU when not favored off a SU and ATS loss as a dog in which they allowed at least 20 points when facing a team that is off a SU and ATS win. The SDQL text is:<p> team=bears and line>=0 and p:ld and p:atsl and op:atsw and op:w and po:points>=20 and season>=2000 We expect a battle of field position. Take the UNDER. FORECAST: CHICAGO 20 Arizona

3 SportsBook Breakers NFL Selections / Week 2 SBB s Newsletter Side 4-STAR Tampa Bay over NEW ORLEANS Last week, Tampa Bay was a complete disaster in their 28-point loss to Tennessee. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers but fortunately for bettors, they ve been here several times recently. Last year they suffered two 28-plus point loss, by 42 points to Atlanta and by 31 points to Baltimore. The following weeks they shocked Pittsburgh on the road and lost against Minnesota in overtime. They re a team that knows how to recover from a brutal game and they ll do that again here. In fact last season they recovered nearly every time they failed to cover. The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS (7.42 ppg) since Sep 28, 2014 the week after a loss and ATS loss (team=buccaneers and p:l and p:atsl and NB and date>= ). It s easy to forget in that loss last week they were actually favored by three points, failing to cover by 31. Teams which failed to cover by at least 26 points last game are ATS (p:ats margin<=-26). On the other side, New Orleans is also 0-1 on their season. Teams which are more than TD favorites which have won less than 62.5% of their games are ATS (line<-7 and WP<62.5). They were underdogs of two points in that game, and the line is now 12.5 points lower in this game despite a 12 points loss. Teams which have a line in week two and least eight points lower than in week one are ATS (week=2 and line-p:line<-8). Tampa Bay also has some extra motivation to go all in against this Saints team that is not up to their normal standards. Despite covering against New Orleans in both meetings last season, the Bucs have now lost seven straight matchups against the Saints. Teams which have lost to a divisional opponent in at least six straight meetings are ATS (DIV and P:L and PP:L and PPP:L and PPPP:L and PPPPP:L and PPPPPP:L). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 23, Tampa Bay 20 SportsBook Breakers Total Play 4-STAR San Francisco and Pittsburgh Under Both these teams showed their cards in week one and each had a repeatable tendencies that will show here. While San Francisco is much thinner after their offseason departures, a game plan of power running and solid defense is their method to compete. Pittsburgh s going to be able to move the ball, but without two of their top red zone options, LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant, they ll again have trouble getting in the endzone. Last week, San Francisco blew away even the loftiest expectations in a 20-3 win. In a dominating defensive performance, they allowed fewer points than expected. Teams that allowed at least 19 points fewer than expected last game are ATS (p:dpa <= -19). Their rode the back of Carlos Hyde in that game who picked up 168 yards on the ground. Teams which had at least an 152 yard rusher last game are OU (max:p:rushing yards>=152). San Francisco was very run heavy with 39 rushes and just 26 pass attempts but that is not limiting the total here. Teams playing in games where the total is at least 44.5 after they rushed the ball more than 35 times last game are OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5). In Pittsburgh s season opening loss against New England they fell behind and had to become pass heavy. They threw the ball with success 38 times in the game. Ben Roethlisberger is 0-10 OU (-11.1 ppg) since December 2006 as a home favorite of more than three points after a loss where he threw at least 35 passes. H and line<-3 and Ben Roethlisberger:p:passes>=35 and p:l and date>= These teams last met in 2011 when San Francisco dominated Pittsburgh in a 20-3 win. Big Ben somehow threw for 334 yards despite scoring just the three points on the loss. Ben Roethlisberger is 0-7 OU ( ppg) since 2009 facing a team he threw for at least 325 yards against as a loss last meeting (Ben Roethlisberger:P:passing yards>=325 and P:L and date>= ). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 41 points Vince Akins of SportsBook Breakers has proven to be one of the best handicappers in the business and has dominated the NFL the past four seasons. Over that time, SportsBook Breakers has gone a huge +$4109 with its selections. Last season, SBB finished as the top handicapper on VegasInsider.com with a +$1826 finish. Vince Akins picks, which include can be found at Vegasinsider.com NFL Week 2 3

4 SBB s SportsBook College Football Breakers Trends NFL Player to Watch Trends (9-12) Trends Carson Palmer is 9-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since November 17, 2013 after a game where he threw for at least 250 passing yards. Drew Brees is 9-0 ATS (13.33 ppg) since November 25, 2007 as a favorite after a loss as a dog where he threw for at least 250 yards. Greg Olsen is 6-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 after a road game where he had fewer than 3 receptions. Sports Data Query Language Carson Palmer:p:passing touchdowns>=2 and date>= Drew Brees:p:passing yards>=250 and F and p:dl and date>= Panthers:Greg Olsen:p:receptions<3 and p:a and date>= Ben Roethlisberger is 0-10 OU (-11.1 ppg) since December 2006 as a home favorite of more than three points after a loss where he threw at least 35 passes. LeSean McCoy is 10-0 OU (8.7 ppg) since Sep 27, 2009 after a game as an underdog where he had at least 25 receiving yards. H and line<-3 and Ben Roethlisberger:p:passes>=35 and p:l and date>= LeSean McCoy:p:receiving yards>=25 and D and date>= SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System SportsBook Breakers has spent the past season focused on league systems and has found over 100 that are winners at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league system here. If you are looking for more SDQL-based systems from SBB each week, check out their offerings on the Killersports.com Trends Mart. PLAY ON: In the first four week of the season, teams that are road dogs of less than a TD that won less than seven games last season ATS (3.08, 64.8%) SDQL TEXT: week<=4 and tps(w)<7 and 6.5>=line>0 and A 4 The NFL is a league of constant change where good teams fall off and bad teams improve all of the time. Early in the season, many of these lines already reflect the changes or perceived changes. However, we have found a spot where improving teams are undervalued in the early going. Teams in the first four week of the season that are road dogs of less than a TD and won less than seven games last season are ATS (64.8%). What we like about this system is how the line fall into an area that is completely nondescript. When scanning lines during the first few weeks of the season, it would stand out if a bad team from a season ago was road favorite or a huge underdog, but seeing these teams as a small or medium road dog is exactly what would be casually expected, not alerting bettors to potential value right off the bat. This system went just 10-9 in the 2013 and 2014 season, but you do not have to look back much further to see it s massive potential. In the 2011 and 2012 seasons, the system was 15-3 ATS. And already this season, these underdogs have gone 2-0 with Tennessee and NY Giants both covering comfortably in week one. This week, the system is currently active on three teams though we expect by kickoff there will only be one left to focus our interest on. Tennessee is an ever so slight underdog in Cleveland and is likely to be favored by game time and the Jets are 6.5-point dogs at Indianapolis in a game likely to be at 7+ points by kickoff. That leaves Atlanta, who is a nondescript 2.5-point dog traveling to the Giants this week.

5 Cajun Sports College Football System Play ON a nonconference home team (not a favorite of 3+ points) off SU wins scoring 36+ points in each of its last 2 games SDQL Text -3 <line and date> and game number>2 and po:points < p:points and ppo:points < pp:points and ((conference = o:conference))=false and site=home and p:points>35 and pp:points>35 System Analysis I have heard many times that time flies when you are having fun well it sure seems to be because we are already at Week Three of the College Football season with a few surprises. We are coming off a tough loss on these pages last week with Louisville losing at home to Houston. We look to rebound this week with a solid college football system that is active in one of the games on Saturday. We are coming off a rare loss with our SEC Game of the Week on LSU they won but failed to cover the spread. The Bengal Tigers took a 14 to 3 lead into halftime adding one more touchdown in the second half to take a commanding 21 to 3 lead late into the fourth quarter. With the game well in hand the Bengal Tigers proceeded to forget to play defense the last few minutes of the game allowing Mississippi State with four minutes left in the game to score two late touchdowns which cost us the spread victory. Our SEC Game of the Week record stands at 1-1 ATS on the season and ATS for 62 percent winners over the last five seasons. Make sure you join us at KillerCappers.com for our SEC Game of the Week, along with our other Conference Games of the Week and Best Bets for College and Pro Football this weekend. NCAA Football Best Bets are ATS and our NFL Best Bets stand at 4-1 ATS this season. We capped off the week calling for the outright victory of the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night in an easy 20 to 3 victory. This week our research focused on situations where teams are coming off back to back wins in which they scored more than five touchdowns in each game. We wanted to know if there was a particular situation where we could use these teams possibly playing on or against them to cash a winning ticket. What we found was a solid situation when the play on team faces non-conference foes and has been installed as a home underdog or a small favorite they entered the contest with a ton of confidence and continued to play well. In fact these play on teams averaged covering the spread in this game by almost a touchdown. The sample size may be small but this system dates to the 1993 season consistently cashing tickets over that span. The system actually reads Play ON CFB nonconference home underdog or small favorite not favored by more than three points coming off straight up wins by thirty-six or more points in each of their last two games. This system has a record of ATS for 83.3 percent winners since With all the system parameters met this weeks Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week calls for a play on the Indiana Hoosiers at home versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Saturday afternoon. Play ON the Hoosiers on Saturday afternoon in Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. SU: (1.92, 64.0%) ATS: (5.90, 83.3%) avg line: 4.0 O/U: (-2.71, 42.9%) avg total: 57.4 Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing Yds TrnOvrs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team Opp NFL Week 2 5

6 SBB s Five NFL Trends to Watch: Week 2 Trends The Titans are ATS (-8.9 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 on the road after a game in which a receiver had at least 100 receiving yards. The Chargers are ATS (14.3 ppg) since December 2011 vs an opponent averaging at least 30 rushes per game. The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since October 2013 the week after a win in which a receiver had at least 75 receiving yards. The Browns are 0-13 OU (-12.0 ppg) since Dec 16, 2001 when they are not 2+ point dogs after an away game where they allowed no more than 18 first downs. The Bills are 10-0 OU (15.0 ppg) since 2001 off a game as a dog where they allowed at least six points fewer than expected and less than 340 passing yards. Sports Data Query Language team=titans and A and 100<=max:p:receiving yards and date>= team=chargers and 30<=oA(rushes) and date>= team=cardinals and 75<=max:p:receiving yards and p:w and NB and date>= team=browns and po:first downs<=18 and p:a and line<2 and date>= team=bills and p:dpa<=-6 and po:py<340 and p:d and season>=2011 SBB s College Football Trends to Watch (9-19) Trends Sports Data Query Language Southern Miss is ATS (11.5 ppg) since November 8, 2003 on the road after a game as a favorite of more than TD where they covered or pushed the spread. BYU is 11-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since December 22, 2009 as a dog after a game where they allowed no more than 18 first downs. Colorado State is 10-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since October 27, 2012 in the regular season after a loss. New Mexico State is 0-12 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since November 2012 as a dog after a loss at home. Ohio State is 13-0 OU (10.7 ppg) since September 14, 2013 after a game where they scored no more than seven points more than expected. team=smis and A and p:ats margin>=0 and p:line<-7 and date>= team=byu and D and po:first downs<=18 and date>= team = COST and p:l and game type = RS and date >= team=nmst and D and p:hl and date>= team=ohst and p:dps <=7 and date>= SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS NFL AND NCAA SELECTIONS ARE NOW AVAILABLE UNDER VINCE AKINS AT VEGASINSIDER.COM 6

7 Pick Sixty Sports: Tips and Totals Those warm, wet summer summer days tend to hold on just a little longer in the state of Florida and it can occasionally have an impact on early-season football games. You ve all heard the announcers talk about it, and sometimes bettors will refer to humidity as one of the reasons supporting their play, whether it s a home/away fav, over or under. Funny how one factor, humidity, can be interpreted so many ways. Rarely would you hear someone suggest that 50 mph winds are a classic Over spot for big passing offenses, but damp September conditions in Florida will be be part of several arguments, whether they make sense or not. This year in August, while mountain biking through an intense 90 degree, 100-percent humidity day, I started to think what it would be like to trying to play three hours worth of football in these conditions. Naturally, my thoughts turned towards betting and after the ride I went to work hammering through a list of SDQL parameters to try and find an edge. PARAMETER POWER My theory is that the edge in this difficult environment goes to the team with better athletic ability, specifically the top talented players who can execute. For that criteria I focused on three categories which can be researched with the KillerSports.com database: Completion percentage (CP), rushing yards per carry (RYPC) and turnover margin (TOM), which includes the defense. Let s start with turnovers (SDQL Text: team and season=2014 and REG). Note: In the early season it s important to check back to previous season averages since there are so few games played this year. Top teams in the NFL during the 2014 season had a TOM less than (remember, negative turnover margins are better in this context). Since 2008, these teams have a 9-4 ATS record in September games at Florida. When the totals are mid-low, the Under has hit better than 70-percent. Since 2007, when our team is just better than their host in this department, regardless of previous season averages, the record is ATS. SDQL: tpa(tom) < opa(tom) and month = 9 and A and (o:team = Dolphins or o:team = Jaguars or o:team = Buccaneers) and season >= 2007 STRONG RUSHING TEAMS The code (SDQL Text: team and season=2014 and REG) gives us the best RYPC teams from 2014 and a good break point is The Under is the first thing jumping out but in more recent years, these teams have been a solid play ON to cover ATS. tpa(ry/rushes) >= 4.2 and month = 9 and A and (o:team = Dolphins or o:team = Jaguars or o:team = Buccaneers) and season >= 2007 Counting Carolina s win over the Jags in Week 1, these RYPCedge teams are showing a 14-4 ATS record in the past nine years. COMPLETION PERCENTAGE The best group of teams from 2014 had a CP of 64-percent or better but to get a broader sample, I had to reduce the CP to 61-percent. In recent years, the passing game has just taken off in the NFL. The following code shows a 9-5 ATS record. tpa(cp) >= 61 and month = 9 and A and (o:team = Dolphins or o:team = Jaguars or o:team = Buccaneers) and season >= 2008 COMBINATIONS Since 2009, teams with an advantage in TOM and RYPC are 8-3 SU/ATS in early season trips to Florida. Faves of -3 or more are 5-1 SU/ATS and that s live in Week 2, with Miami (-6) at Jacksonville. There was a limited sample of recent games when our road team was good in all three categories but the Dolphins still fit. Adding October games into the mix instantly doubled our game count and the record stayed really strong. The scoring averages are 29 to 15. Comparing the stats for our live teams at all other venues in the NFL over similar time periods proved that there really was a gap for this situation. It s hard to say exactly how much of the difference is based on pure matchups (Jags and Bucs have had some pretty bad teams), but the pointspread is the great equalizer. This week is our first true test of the system. Pick: Take the Dolphins -6 to cover against Jacksonville 2015 NFL Week 2 7

8 2015 NFL Week 2 Time Teams Prev. Next Lines Final Notes 8:30 THUR 1;00 4:05 4:05 4:25 8:20 10:15 MON Denver at Kansas City Detroit at Minnesota Arizona at Chicago Tennessee at Cleveland New England at Buffalo Houston at Carolina San Francisco at Pittsburgh San Diego at Cincinnati St. Louis at Washington Atlanta at N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay at New Orleans Baltimore at Oakland Miami at Jacksonville Dallas at Philadelphia Seattle at Green Bay N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis W vs BAL HOU SD SF# W vs NO L vs GB TB NYJ W vs PIT^ W vs IND L vs KC JAC W vs MIN# NE^ W vs DET OAK W vs SEA L vs MIA W vs PHL# DAL* L vs TEN ARZ DEN L vs CIN WAS L vs CAR W vs NYG* ATL# STL GB W vs CLE GB# vs DEN* vs SD vs SEA vs IND vs OAK vs MIA vs TB vs BAL vs DAL vs CAR vs CLE vs NE vs NYJ vs CHI vs KC# vs TEN #On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night Notes: 8

9 Trends and Notes / Week 2 Broncos at Chiefs - The Broncos are 0-6 ATS (-7.50 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 as a dog and vs an opponent averaging less than 1.25 turnovers per game. The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 10, 2006 as a home favorite before 2+ straight road games. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (9.71 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 after a game in which a receiver had more than 75 receiving yards. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-8.92 ppg) since Nov 13, 2011 as a favorite and after a game with zero turnovers. Texans at Panthers - The Texans are ATS ( ppg) since Oct 12, 2008 after a home loss in which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards. The Texans are 0-9 OU (-8.22 ppg) since Nov 26, 2006 on the road as a dog and when they are averaging better than 4.5 yards per rush. The Panthers are OU (8.28 ppg) since Sep 15, 2002 as a favorite vs a winless opponent with at least one loss. The Panthers are 0-7 OU (-8.71 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 and vs opponents getting more than 67% of their first downs passing. Fortyniners at Steelers - The Fortyniners are ATS (6.31 ppg) since Dec 07, 2008 as a dog after a game with fewer than 10 incompletions. The Fortyniners are 7-0 OU (9.79 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 on the road after a game in which they had more than 150 rushing yards. The Steelers are 9-0 OU (14.72 ppg) since Sep 24, 1995 at home as a favorite of more than three points off loss as a dog of more than three points. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (19.21 ppg) since Nov 17, 2013 and vs a team with more wins. The Steelers are 0-7 OU ( ppg) since Dec 26, 2004 at home off a road game in which they had more than 300 passing yards. Buccaneers at Saints - The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS (7.42 ppg) since Sep 28, 2014 after a loss and ATS loss. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 vs an opponent averaging fewer than 25 passes per game. The Buccaneers are 0-8 OU (-9.62 ppg) since Dec 07, 2003 as an away dog off a game as a favorite where they scored at least five points fewer than expected. The Buccaneers are 7-0 OU (8.64 ppg) since Oct 13, 2013 as a dog when they are winless. The Saints are 7-0 OU (8.71 ppg) since Sep 11, 1994 as a favorite of more than a TD off a loss as a dog. Lions at Vikings - The Lions are 0-8 ATS ( ppg) since Oct 08, 2006 as a dog and after scoring more than 24 points in a loss. The Lions are 11-0 OU (17.18 ppg) since Oct 31, 1993 off a road game and with their opponent off a Monday night game. The Lions are 7-0 OU (6.71 ppg) since Oct 29, 2000 on the road after a game on the road where they scored at least five points more than expected. The Lions are 7-0 OU (15.14 ppg) since Sep 30, 2007 and vs an opponent averaging less than 275 offensive yards per game. Cardinals at Bears - The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (8.00 ppg) since Nov 17, 2013 on the road between two home games. The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-5.79 ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 at home off a game as a dog and vs an opponent averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game. The Bears are 0-6 OU (-7.08 ppg) since Nov 16, 1997 at home as a dog after a loss in which they outgained their opponent. Patriots at Bills - The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-7.56 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 when they are averaging better than 4.5 yards per rush. The Patriots are 10-0 OU (10.65 ppg) since Nov 03, 2003 within 3 of pickem and off a home game when they had zero turnovers. The Patriots are 0-7 OU ( ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 and after a game in which their opponent had more than 300 passing yaards. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-8.81 ppg) since Nov 11, 2007 within 3 of pickem after a 10+ point ATS win. Chargers at Bengals - The Chargers are ATS (11.17 ppg) since Oct 20, 2002 as a dog off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least five points more than expected. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (10.17 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 as a dog and after a game with fewer than 10 incompletions. The Bengals are ATS (7.33 ppg) since Sep 23, 2012 vs a team with the same record. The Chargers are 0-9 OU ( ppg) since Sep 22, 2013 after a game in which they had more than 300 passing yards. Titans at Browns - The Titans are ATS (-9.80 ppg) since Nov 14, 2010 after scoring at least five points more than expected on the road. The Titans are ATS (5.71 ppg) since Oct 15, 2006 as a dog off a game as a dog and after a 10+ ATS win. The Titans are 6-0 OU (12.17 ppg) since Nov 02, 1997 as a dog off a game as a dog and after scoring more than 33 points. The Browns are 0-7 OU (-9.93 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 vs a team with a better record. Falcons at Giants - The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-5.42 ppg) since Sep 18, 2005 vs a team with a worse record as a dog and off a game as a dog. The Giants are 0-9 ATS ( ppg) since Oct 25, 2009 and off a loss as an away dog where they picked up no more than 18 first downs. The Giants are 0-7 ATS ( continued on page NFL Week 2 9

10 Trends and Notes / Week 2 continued ppg) since Dec 13, 2009 and within 3 of pickem after a game in which their opponent had more than 300 passing yaards. The Falcons are 0-8 OU ( ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 vs an opponent averaging at least 35 passes per game. The Giants are OU (9.12 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 at home off a road game and after a game with zero turnovers. The Giants are 6-0 OU (11.33 ppg) since Dec 21, 2009 after scoring more than 24 points in a loss. Rams at Redskins - The Rams are 7-0 ATS (8.14 ppg) since Oct 19, 2003 as a favorite after scoring more than 33 points. The Rams are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 off a game as a home dog that went over the total by at least 10 points. The Rams are 6-0 ATS (8.92 ppg) since Oct 14, 2012 and on the road between two home games. The Redskins are 0-6 ATS ( ppg) since Oct 06, 2014 vs an opponent that allows a completion rate of more than 65 percent. The Rams are 0-6 OU ( ppg) since Oct 08, 2006 as a favorite and after an ATS win in a win with their opponent off an ATS loss in a loss. Dolphins at Jaguars - The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS ( ppg) since Oct 20, 2002 as a favorite and after a win in which they were trailing at the half. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS (6.29 ppg) since Oct 12, 2008 on the road and after a win with a negative DPS. JAC006: The Jaguars are 0-15 ATS at home when they are facing a team that has allowed less than yards per completion season-to-date. The Dolphins are 0-7 OU (-9.07 ppg) since Oct 04, 1992 on the road off a game as a road favorite of more than three points The Jaguars are 0-7 OU ( ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 and at home and after a loss in which they had at least two turnovers. Ravens at Raiders - The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (10.21 ppg) since Nov 21, 2010 as a favorite of more than three points off a loss as a dog. The Raiders are 0-12 ATS ( ppg) since Oct 07, 2001 at home and vs an opponent averaging less than 28 minutes of continued on page 11 The Power of Two-Team Teasers One of the fantastic and unique features of is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week we ll show off five such two-team teaser trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of handicapping. Any trend with a p6 designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including m6 is for a play against/over 6-pt teaser. Teaser Trends The Ravens are ATSp6 (11.42 ppg) since Dec 11, 2011 vs an opponent allowing an average or more than 375 offensive yards per game. The Seahawks are ATSp6 (15.50 ppg) since Oct 01, 1990 after scoring more than 24 points in a loss. The Lions are ATSm6 ( ppg) since Nov 10, 1991 the week after a road game and after a loss in which they were leading at the half. The Giants are ATSm6 ( ppg) since Oct 06, 1991 at home off a road game in Dallas. The Vikings are 18-0 OUm6 (10.92 ppg) since Sep 26, 2004 at home as a favorite off a road loss where they failed to cover. Sports Data Query Language team=ravens and 375<=oA(o:TY) and date>= team=seahawks and 24<p:points and p:l and date>= team=lions and p:al and 0<p:M2 and NB and date>= team=giants and H and p:a and po:team=cowboys and date>= team=vikings and HF and p:al and p:ats margin<0 and date>=

11 Trends and Notes / Week 2 continued possession time. The Raiders are OU (-4.38 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 as a dog and vs a team with the same record. Cowboys at Eagles - The Cowboys are 10-0 ATS (11.50 ppg) since Sep 10, 2000 as a dog vs an opponent that allows a completion rate of more than 65 percent. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (11.43 ppg) since Oct 26, 2009 as a favorite off a road game where they passed for three times as many yards as they rushed for. The Eagles are 0-7 ATS (-9.64 ppg) since Oct 31, 1999 at home after a 1 to 3 point loss. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (12.93 ppg) since Nov 07, 2010 as a dog and vs an opponent averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game. Seahawks at Packers - The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS (12.50 ppg) since Oct 09, 2011 and on the road vs a team with more wins. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (7.57 ppg) since Sep 27, 2009 and with a Monday night game next week. The Packers are 0-7 ATS (-8.29 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 and within 3 of pickem and after a game with zero turnovers. The Seahawks are 0-6 ATS on the road when facing an undefeated team after week 1. The Seahawks are 11-0 OU (9.77 ppg) since Jan 14, 2007 on the road off a game as a favorite and vs a team with more wins. The Packers are 0-9 OU (-9.78 ppg) since Sep 29, 2002 at home and with a Monday night game next week. The Packers are 8-0 OU (12.62 ppg) since Nov 10, 2002 at home off a win where they allowed at least 24 first downs. Jets at Colts - The Colts are 8-0 ATS (10.62 ppg) since Oct 17, 2005 and as a favorite on Monday night off a game as a favorite. The Jets are 0-8 OU (-9.62 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 after a game in which a receiver had a reception of 30+ yards. The Colts are 7-0 OU (13.29 ppg) since Jan 13, 2008 and at home and vs an opponent with an average turnover margin lesss than minus one. NFL HANDICAPPING ANNUAL Active Trends Trends NO001: The Saints are 14-0 ATS as a favorite after a loss as a dog. Sports Data Query Language team=saints and p:ld and F and date>= DAL003: The Cowboys are 10-0 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. SF006: The 49ers are 0-12 ATS as a dog after a win in which they scored fewer than 33 points and recorded at least four sacks. BUF010: The Bills are 0-7 ATS vs any team that has allowed at least 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. SD012: The Chargers are 0-9 OU after a game in which they had at least 300 passing yards. team=cowboys and D and os(o:comp)/os(o:passes) >= 0.65 and season>=2000 team=49ers and D and 4<=p:sacks and p:w and p:points<33 and season >= 1998 team=bills and oa(o:ypra)>4.5 and date>= team=chargers and p:py>=300 and season >= 2013 COPYRIGHT NOTICE All the material in this publication is copyrighted by the United States Government. No part of this periodical may be reproduced in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, and electronic recording without written consent from Killer Sports Publishing. If the reader has any questions or comments about this newsletter, please write us at: Killer Sports Publishing or us at: PO Box 862, Berea OH support@killersports.com 2015 NFL Week 2 11

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