Including: Week 11 NFL selections+!!

Transcription

1 2014 WEEK 11 $25 Featuring the SDQL Including: Week 11 NFL selections+!! MTi s TEASER PLAY OF THE YEAR, SBB s NEWSLETTER TOTAL OF THE YEAR, Trends w/sdql! MTI s Newsletter Teaser Plays... Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the YEAR!! 5-Star New England +9, Seattle +7.5 Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Patriots are 27-0 ATSp6 as a dog when their opponent s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Seahawks are 17-0 ATSp6 as a dog. Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4-Star Arizona +7.5, Denver -0.5, Chicago +6.5 Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Cardinals are 24-0 ATSp10 at home vs a non-divisional opponent, The Broncos are 23-0 ATSp10 as a favorite off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Bears are 20-0 ATSp10 after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. In This Issue: MTi s Week 11 Selections... 2 SportsBook Breakers Week 11 Selections... 3 The Power of Two-Team Teasers... 4 SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System... 4 SportsBook Breakers College Football System... 5 SBB s Five NFL Trends to Watch in Week SBB s NCAA Trends to Watch... 6 SBB s Featured NFL Trend... 7 NFL Schedule Chart... 8 NFL Trends and Notes SBB s NFL Player Trends NFL Handicapping Bible Trends Tracking The 2014 Season... While the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex and very specific handicapping information, it is also just as useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we will track basic handicapping situations over the full season, as well as how they ve gone the past three weeks. Situation 2014 ats record ats record Last 3 Weeks Home Home Dog Home Favorite Off a win Off a Cover Passes Per Game 35.3 passes 35.1 passes Rushes Per Game 26.8 rushes 26.5 rushes Average Total Score 46.6 ppg ppg.

2 MTi s NFL Selections / Week 11 MTi s Newsletter Side Play 4-Star Tampa Bay +7 over WASHINGTON -- The Redskins have performed down to the level of their competition for some time now. We don t see any reason why this should change. Washington is 0-18 ATS when hosting a team with more wins as long as that opponent has averaged between 150 and 300 passing yards per game, which excludes only the terrific and terrible passing teams. The SDQL text is: team=redskins and H and wins > o:wins and 150 < oa(py) < 300 and season >= 2002 Washing lost straight up each of their last five in this spot and they were favored in three of the five. Since 2008, they have been in this spot ten times and they have managed an average of only 13.4 ppg. Remember, they are hosting a team that has fewer wins, so they have been playing bad teams and they are at home. More evidence for the Redskins lack of a killer instinct is revealed by the fact that they are ATS over the years as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. Finally, the Redskins are 0-7 ATS since the start of the 2012 season when they are off any game in which Roy Helu caught a 20-plus yard pass. The SDQL text is Roy Helu:p:longest reception>=20 and season >= 2012 Note that the Redskins have failed to cover by an average of 13.6 ppg. Lovie Smith really needs to win a game, which is why he has put McCown back at QB. We expect the Redskins to play conservatively with a lead and this will allow Tampa s passing game to hang within the number and possibly pull the upset. MTi s FORECAST: Tampa Bay 24 WASHINGTON 21 MTi s Newsletter Totals Play 4.5-Star Atlanta at Carolina UNDER These two divisional rivals are both having disappointing seasons. The Falcons are 3-6 with all three of their wins vs divisional opponents. The Panthers are and have now lost four straight. Last week, as a big road dog in Philadelphia, the Panthers had to be aggressive and it did not pay off. Here, they are at home in a winnable game. We expect a conservative approach from both squads, each waiting for the other to make the first mistake. Indeed, Carolina is 0-14 OU (-8.36 ppg) as a home favorite when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The SDQL text is: team=panthers and HF and DIV and season=p:season + 1 and season >= 1998 Also, the Panthers are 0-6 OU (-8.75 ppg) the week before their bye. The Panthers have allowed 376 yards of offense per game this season and this points to the UNDER. Atlanta is 0-9 OU as a road dog vs a team that has allowed at least 370 yards of offense per game season-to-date. See for yourself with this SDQL text: team=falcons and AD and oa(o:ty) > 370 and date>= Note that the Falcons have stayed under by an average of 14.0 ppg in this spot. Finally, the Falcons are 0-6 OU ( ppg) on the road when facing a divisional opponent with the same W-L record as theirs. This OU margin is huge. The Falcons have scored an average of 8.8 points and allowed an average of 19.2 in this spot. The UNDER is the play. MTi s FORECAST: CAROLINA 17 Atlanta

3 SportsBook Breakers NFL Selections / Week 11 SBB s Newsletter Side 4-STAR Denver over ST LOUIS - When the Broncos win, they win big. Their last five wins have been by at least 14 points. What bettors are underestimating is just how good their defense is now, making them a well rounded team that can easily put games out of reach against inferior foes. Shaun Hill is not going to be the answer here as the Rams continue to struggle. Denver is on the road for the tail end of a rare three game road trip, but getting acclimated to the road is not such a bad thing. Teams on the road for at least the second straight game are ATS since 2003 (A and p:a and season>=2003). Also, the Broncos are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since November 2011 on the road when they were on the road in their previous game as well (team=broncos and A and p:a and date>= ). Denver thrashed Oakland last week, 41-17, after being thrashed in New England as a favorite the game prior. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS since 2009 as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak (team=broncos and F and streak =1 and ats streak = 1 and season >= 2009). Even in a big win, Denver aired the ball out, throwing 49 times in the win. The Broncos are ATS (10.30 ppg) since Oct 08, 2000 on the road the week after a game in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average (team=broncos and A and ta(p:passes)+ 10<=p:passes and date>= ). That included five TDs for Peyton Manning, two of which went to Julius Thomas. Teams that threw for at least four TDs last game are ATS (p:ptd>=4). Also, The Broncos are 6-0 ATS (10.9ppg) since October 27, 2013 after a road game in which Julius Thomas had a receiving touchdown. (0<Broncos:Julius Thomas:p:receiving touchdowns and p:a and date>= ). Demaryius Thomas did not have a touchdown but was their leading receiver with 11 catches for 108 yards. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 after a road win last week in which Demaryius Thomas had at least 75 receiving yards (75<=Broncos:Demaryius Thomas:p:receiving yards and p:aw and NB and date>= ). This is bad news for a Rams team that let Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton lead Arizona to 307 passing yards last week in a loss. The Rams are 0-12 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since Nov 27, 1994 as a 7+ dog the week after a loss in which they allowed at least 290 yards passing (team=rams and 7<=line and 290<=po:passing yards and p:l and NB and date>= ). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver by 20 SportsBook Breakers Newsletter Total of the YEAR! 4.5-STAR Arizona and Detroit Over - These are two of the best defenses in the NFL. However, they also have credible offenses, and more importantly, they are capable of big plays, and are not afraid to try for them. That is the way you put up points against strong defenses like this, and we expect enough big plays to hit to send this over. Both teams enter this meeting red hot as Detroit has won four straight and Arizona five straight. Matchups of teams each on 4+ game winning streaks are OU (streak>=4 and o:streak>=4 and H). Also, the Cardinals are 6-0 OU (5.33 ppg) since Oct 30, 1994 as a home favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak (team=cardinals and HF and o:streak>=3 and date>= ). Detroit shouldn t be afraid to go into Arizona and play their game as they ve won their last three road games. The Lions are 7-0 OU (6.79 ppg) since Nov 21, 1993 as a road dog when they won their last two road games (team=lions and AD and Sum(0<margin@team and season and site=away,n=2)=2 and date>= ). They won at home last week, 20-16, despite scoring 3.25 points fewer than expected. The Lions are 8-0 OU (13.88 ppg) since Nov 24, 1996 as a road dog the week after a win in which their dps was negative (team=lions and AD and p:w and p:dps<0 and date>= ). Neither of these teams ran the ball well last game. Detroit had 63 rushing yards last game while Arizona had only 28. Teams are OU since 2002 when one team ran for less than 50 yards and the other less than 75 yards last game (p:ry<50 and op:ry<75 and season>=2002). Arizona ran the ball 22 times in that win over St. Louis, but did not have a carry of longer than five yards. Teams that did not have a rush of longer than seven yards last game are OU (max:p:longest rush<=7). During their winning streak, they been boosted by turnovers, having had a positive margin in each of their last three games. The Cardinals are 7-0 OU (11.07 ppg) since Oct 24, 2004 at home when they had a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games (team=cardinals and H and p:turnover margin<0 and pp:turnover margin<0 and date>= ). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 48 points Vince Akins picks are found at Vegas Insider 2014 NFL Week 11 3

4 The Power of Two-Team Teasers One of the fantastic and unique features of is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week we ll show off five such two-team teaser trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of handicapping. Any trend with a p6 designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including m6 is for a play against/over 6-pt teaser. Teaser Trends The Broncos are 25-0 ATSp6 (12.5 ppg) since Nov 20, 2005 as a favorite off a SU and ATS win vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss. The Texans are 0-16 ATSm6 ( ppg) since Jan 01, 2006 on the road after playing as a home dog. The Seahawks are 19-0 OUm6 (16.24 ppg) since Sep 14, 1997 as a road dog after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Broncos are 18-0 OUm6 (14.69 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 on artificial turf. The Raiders are OUp6 ( ppg) since Sep 19, 1999 as a dog the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. Sports Data Query Language team=broncos and F and p:w and p:atsw and op:atsl and op:l and date>= team=texans and A and p:hd and date>= team=seahawks and AD and ta(p:points)+ 10<=p:points and NB and date>= team=broncos and surface=artificial and date>= team=raiders and D and 300<=po:passing yards and date>= SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System SportsBook Breakers has spent the past season focused on league systems and has found over 100 that are winners at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league system here: Underdogs of at least a field goal that have won at least 77% of their games in at least week seven of the season are ATS. SDQL TEXT: llne>=3 and week>=7 and WP>= If a line looks strange, it is usually with good reason. One such time a line will stand out is when a really good team is an underdog late in the season. However, taking the points with these teams turns out to be fool s gold. System: Underdogs of at least a field goal that have won at least 77% of their games in at least week seven of the season are ATS. By this point in the season, a team s record should be meaningful. So in these spots, a team is either playing a really good foe, likely on the road, or there is another factor in play. Either way, the linesmakers tend to know what they are doing in these spots and these lines are actually lower than they should be, as they know the public will happily take just a few points team s that have this kind of record. While this system has always been good, it has been particularly profitable of late. Since the start of 2012, teams in this spot are 0-9 ATS, failing to cover by 10.4 ppg. This week, the 7-2 Patriots are fighting for AFC supremacy when they travel to face the 6-3 Colts on Sunday night football. Taking the points with New England is usually a great bet, but be cautious when considering grabbing those points Sunday night.

5 Cajun Sports College Football System Cajun Sports does not have a system worthy of releasing this week, but will be with you all postseason through conference championship and bowl games. SportsBook Breakers College Football System Teams that lost by more than 28 points last time they faced this team, when the combined score in the game was more than 95 points are ATS. Active on Nebraska. SDQL: P:points + Po:points>95 and P:margin<-28 SU: (-8.88, 32.5%) ATS: (8.00, 71.1%) avg line: 16.8 O/U: (-6.93, 45.5%) avg total: 63.0 Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing Yds TrnOvrs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team Opp Date Day WeekSeason Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 15, 1984 Saturday MIN NEB away L W Nov 03, 1984 Saturday IWST NEB home L L Oct 01, 1988 Saturday NMX AIR away L L Oct 20, 1990 Saturday SMU HOU home L W Nov 17, 1990 Saturday UTAH BYU home L W Sep 05, 1992 Saturday TLS HOU home W W Oct 24, 1992 Saturday NMX FRES away L W Sep 07, 1996 Saturday AKRON VTCH home L W Sep 07, 1996 Saturday DUKE FLST away L W Sep 21, 1996 Saturday AZST NEB home W W Oct 18, 1997 Saturday KEST WMCH away L L Oct 17, 1998 Saturday LOU TLN away L W Sep 04, 1999 Saturday LOU KTKY away W W Sep 01, 2001 Saturday NMST TEX away L W Oct 12, 2002 Saturday AIR BYU home W W Sep 16, 2006 Saturday TCU TXT home W W U 0 Oct 21, 2006 Saturday IDA BOIS home L W O 0 Sep 01, 2007 Saturday EMCH PIT away L L U 0 Nov 10, 2007 Saturday FRES HAW away L W U 0 Nov 08, 2008 Saturday NEB KAN home W W O 0 Nov 15, 2008 Saturday KAST NEB home L L O 0 Sep 12, 2009 Saturday TLN BYU home L L O 0 Oct 21, 2009 Wednesday UTEP TLS home W W U 0 Nov 07, 2009 Saturday TLS HOU home L P O 0 Sep 11, 2010 Saturday NTX RICE home L L O 0 Nov 13, 2010 Saturday CMCH NAVY away L W O 0 Oct 15, 2011 Saturday IND WIS away L L O 0 Oct 22, 2011 Saturday ECAR NAVY away W W O 0 Nov 19, 2011 Saturday RUT CIN home W W U 0 Sep 01, 2012 Saturday TXST HOU away W W U 0 Sep 29, 2012 Saturday RICE HOU neutral L L U 0 Oct 13, 2012 Saturday KAN OKST home L W U 0 Sep 14, 2013 Saturday MIS TEX away W W O 0 Nov 29, 2013 Friday HOU SMU home W W U 0 Aug 30, 2014 Saturday INST IND away L W U 0 Sep 26, 2014 Friday NMX FRES home L L U 0 Oct 18, 2014 Saturday WVA BAY home W W U 0 Nov 15, 2014 Saturday NEB WIS away NFL Week 11 5

6 SBB s Five NFL Trends to Watch: Week 11 Trends The Seahawks are 11-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 14, 2008 within 3 of pick when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Lions are ATS (-9.3 ppg) since November 20, 1994 within 3 of pick on grass after a win. The Packers are 11-0 OU (16.1 ppg) since December 5, 2010 when they get a team off a Monday Night game. The Titans are 11-0 OU (15.0 ppg) since October 30, 2005 as a home dog or pick after a loss as a dog. The Panthers are 0-14 OU (-8.4 ppg) since September 6, 1998 as a home favorite when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. Sports Data Query Language team=vikings and D and p:l and ta(p:top)+ 180<=p:TOP and date>= team=lions and -3<=line<=3 and surface=grass and p:w and date>= team=packers and op:day=monday and o:nb and date>= team=titans and H and line>=0 and p:ld and date>= team=panthers and HF and DIV and season=p:season + 1 and date>= SBB s College Football Trends to Watch (11-15) Trends Sports Data Query Language Alabama is 15-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since December 2009 when playing an undefeated team when they total is under 53, if they are not off a bye. BYU is 11-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since Nov 21, 2009 with the total under 65 after a game as a road favorite. Louisiana-Lafayette is 11-0 ATS (14.3 ppg) since 2008 when they scored 32+ points last game and their opponent allowed less than 32 points in their last game where they were not 30+ point dogs and where the total was over 48. Georgia is 0-14 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since October 28, 1995 in the regular season as a dog, or a favorite of less than six points, when they were not 33+ point favorites last game, if they allowed 38+ points to a team in their last meeting against this team and did not lose by more than 40. Army is 0-10 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since November 19, 2011 as a road dog. team=ala and rest>6 and season>=1991 and 0<p:margin<27 and ts(w)>=7 and ts(l)<4). team=byu and total<65 and p:af and date>= team=llaf and p:points>=32 and season>=2008 and opo:points<32 and op:line<30 and op:total>48 team = GEO and Po:points >= 38 and P:margin > -40 and line > -6 and date >= and game type = RS and p:line>-33 team=army and AD and date>= Purchase SportsBook Breakers College & Pro Football Selections each week at Vegas Insider 6

7 SportsBook Breakers NFL Trend of the Week The Bengals are ATS (-9.9 ppg) since 1991 when they are off a 21-plus point ATS loss in which they suffered a negative turnover margin. SDQL Text team=bengals and p:ats margin<=-21 and p:tom>=1 and season>=1991 System Analysis Cincinnati has been known to put forth a real poor performance from time-to-time. And they are a team where the perception of that performance lasts. As we see here, there is something to that perception with the Bengals. Active Trend: The Bengals are ATS (-9.9 ppg) since 1991 when they are off a 21- plus point ATS loss in which they suffered a negative turnover margin. Last week, Cincinnati was an absolute mess in the Thursday night spotlight against Cleveland. They were favored by six-point at home against the Browns and lost, Turnovers absolutely derailed them as Andy Dalton imploded and they committed four while only forcing one. This is not an isolated incident as this is the third time this season the Bengals have failed to cover by more than 23 points in a game. This trend was active in week six after the Bengals lost by 26 also in a primetime game to the Patriots. They came out the next week as favorites and ended up tying the Panthers, This week they are underdogs as they travel to New Orleans in a must win game for both teams. Avoid the Bengals in week 11. SU: (-12.79, 5.6%) ATS: (-9.89, 0.0%) avg line: 2.9 O/U: (-0.82, 42.1%) avg total: 41.4 Query Output Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing Yds TrnOvrs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team Opp Day WeekSeason Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSrOUr ot Sunday Bengals Oilers home L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Browns away L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Oilers home L L O 0 Sunday Bengals Steelers home L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Raiders away L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Panthers away L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Jaguars away L P U 0 Sunday Bengals Dolphins home L L O 0 Sunday Bengals Browns away L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Titans home L L O 0 Sunday Bengals Chiefs away L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Steelers home L L O 0 Sunday Bengals Buccaneers away L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Colts away L L U 0 Saturday Bengals Jets home L L O 0 Thursday Bengals Jets away L L U 0 Sunday Bengals Texans home L L O 0 Sunday Bengals Browns home W P O 0 Sunday Bengals Panthers home P L O 1 Sunday Bengals Saints away SportsBook Breakers is over +$3,000 for the $100 player on NFL selections the past four years. Find SportsBook Breakers selections every week at Vegas Insider under Vince Akins NFL Week 11 7

8 2014 NFL Week 11 Time Teams Prev. Next Lines Final Notes 8:25 THUR 1;00 4:05 4:05 4:25 4:25 8:30 8:30 MON Buffalo at Miami Minnesota at Chicago Houston at Cleveland Seattle at Kansas City Atlanta at Carolina Cincinnati at New Orleans Tampa Bay at Washington Denver at St. Louis San Francisco at N.Y. Giants Oakland at San Diego Detroit at Arizona Philadelphia at Green Bay New England at Indianapolis Pittsburgh at Tennessee L vs KC DET GB* CIN^ W vs NYG BUF TB PHL# L vs CLE^ L vs SF L vs ATL OAK ARZ NO SEA L vs DEN W vs MIA W vs STL W vs CAR# W vs CHI* NYJ BAL vs DEN vs GB vs TB vs ATL vs OAK^ vs HOU vs SF vs SD vs WAS vs DAL vs KC^ vs SEA vs MIN vs DET vs PHL #On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night Notes: 8

9 Trends and Notes / Week 11 Bills at Dolphins - The Bills are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 05, 2010 on the road after a home loss in which a receiver had at least 5 receptions. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS (13.36 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 after a loss as a dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Nov 16, 2003 as a favorite after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-9.36 ppg) since Nov 24, 2002 on the road after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. Vikings at Bears - The Vikings are ATS (-7.45 ppg) since Oct 17, 1999 on the road when one game under 500 after playing at home. The Bears are 8-0 ATS (6.75 ppg) since Oct 29, 1989 at home when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The Bears are ATS (-6.50 ppg) since Oct 24, 2010 at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Bears are 10-0 OU (13.85 ppg) since Oct 28, 2012 when facing a team that has average more than one first down per offensive point. The Bears are 0-8 OU (-9.56 ppg) since Dec 20, 1998 after a loss on the road against the Packers The Bears are 7-0 OU (10.21 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 when facing a team that has averaged less than 5 yards per play season-to-date. Texans at Browns - The Texans are ATS (-4.88 ppg) since Oct 12, 2008 within 3 of pick on grass after playing as a home dog. The Browns are ATS (-8.70 ppg) since Nov 16, 2009 at home when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. The Browns are 0-7 ATS (-9.57 ppg) since Oct 14, 2001 within 3 of pick when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The Texans are 6-0 OU (5.58 ppg) since Nov 10, 2013 within 3 of pick on the road. The Texans are 0-6 OU (-5.42 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak The Browns are 0-7 OU ( ppg) since Nov 23, 2003 at home after a win versus any team with fewer wins Lions at Cardinals - The Lions are 0-9 ATS (-9.61 ppg) since Nov 16, 2003 as a dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a home favorite. The Cardinals are 9-0 ATS (10.33 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS ( ppg) since Nov 10, 2002 as a home favorite after scoring a defensive touchdown. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (9.86 ppg) since Nov 14, 1999 at home versus the Lions. The Lions are 7-0 OU (6.79 ppg) since Nov 21, 1993 as a road dog when they won their last two road games. The Lions are 0-8 OU (-7.19 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 on the road after a game in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards. T The Cardinals are OU (-7.39 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters. The Cardinals are 7-0 OU (11.07 ppg) since Oct 24, 2004 at home when they had a negative turnover margin in each of their last two games. Raiders at Chargers - The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-9.79 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Raiders are OU (10.67 ppg) since Oct 11, 2009 the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times. The Chargers are 0-6 OU ( ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 as a favorite when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. Seahawks at Chiefs - The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS (8.44 ppg) since Dec 27, 1998 on the road the week after a win as a favorite in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters. The Seahawks are ATS (6.89 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 as a dog after a win. The Chiefs are ATS (-5.88 ppg) since Sep 22, 1996 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak. The Seahawks are 9-0 OU (10.50 ppg) since Nov 02, 1997 as a road dog after a win as a favorite in which they were losing at the half. The Seahawks are 8-0 OU (13.69 ppg) since Sep 25, 2005 the week after a win in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their seasonto-date average. The Chiefs are 0-9 OU (-6.83 ppg) since Oct 31, 2011 the week after a win in which they were outgained. Patriots at Colts - The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (11.58 ppg) since Sep 23, 2012 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Colts are ATS (14.56 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 when facing a team that allowed 400-plus yards of offense in their last game. The Colts are 0-6 OU ( ppg) since Nov 17, 2002 at home when their opponent is off their bye. Fortyniners at Giants - The Fortyniners are 7-0 ATS (15.00 ppg) since Jan 03, 2010 on the road when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Fortyniners are ATS (-7.93 ppg) since Jan 13, 2002 on the road after a road win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards. The Fortyniners are ATS (9.00 ppg) since Jan 20, 2013 as a road favorite after a win. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (13.67 ppg) since Oct 15, 2006 when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. The Fortyniners are 0-6 OU (-6.58 ppg) since Dec 17, 1990 as a favorite the week after playing an overtime win on the road. continued on page NFL Week 11 9

10 Trends and Notes / Week 11 continued Eagles at Packers - The Eagles are 0-8 ATS ( ppg) since Nov 15, 2009 on the road versus any team with the same record after playing at home. The Eagles are OU (16.57 ppg) since Nov 03, 1996 after playing the Panthers. The Packers are 6-0 OU (10.75 ppg) since Oct 21, 2012 when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Packers are 6-0 OU (18.83 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home. Falcons at Panthers - The Falcons are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Dec 21, 1992 as a dog after a win as an away favorite. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-7.83 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 after a win in which a receiver had a reception of 30+ yards. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS (13.50 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home when facing a team that gets more than 2/3 of their first downs via the pass. The Falcons are 0-6 OU (-9.00 ppg) since Sep 17, 2012 after a road win in which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards. The Panthers are 0-7 OU (-6.86 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 vs a divisional opponent. Broncos at Rams - The Broncos are ATS (10.30 ppg) since Oct 08, 2000 on the road the week after a game in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-todate average. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS (8.67 ppg) since Oct 28, 2012 when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The Rams are 6-0 ATS (7.67 ppg) since Sep 28, 2003 after a loss as a dog vs a divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half. The Broncos are 9-0 OU (12.39 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 as a favorite on artificial turf. The Rams are 0-6 OU (-8.42 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. continued on page 11 SportsBook Breakers NFL Player Trends Trends The Seahawks are 12-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since 2011 the week after a game where Marshawn Lynch ran for at least 113 yards. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) after a game where Eli Manning threw at least 44 passes for less than 350 yards. The Falcons are 0-7 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since October 2, 2011 on the road after a game in which Julio Jones had at least 75 receiving yards. The Lions are 0-6 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since September 25, 2011 after a home win in which Calvin Johnson had a receiving touchdown. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS (10.9ppg) since October 27, 2013 after a road game in which Julius Thomas had a receiving touchdown. Sports Data Query Language MarshawnLynch:p:rushing yards>=113 and NB and season>=2011 EManning:p:passes>=44 and EManning:p:passing yards<350 A and 75<=Falcons:Julio Jones:p:receiving yards and date>= <Lions:Calvin Johnson:p:receiving touchdowns and p:hw and date>= <Broncos:Julius Thomas:p:receiving touchdowns and p:a and date>=

11 Trends and Notes / Week 11 continued Buccaneers at Redskins - The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS (9.14 ppg) since Oct 22, 1989 as a road dog on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road with a non-divisional opponent next. The Redskins are 0-7 ATS ( ppg) since Oct 19, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Redskins are 7-0 OU (20.86 ppg) since Nov 15, 2010 at home when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Redskins are 0-6 OU (-9.92 ppg) since Dec 30, 2007 as a 7+ favorite. Bengals at Saints - The Bengals are 8-0 ATS (8.12 ppg) since Oct 29, 2000 on the road when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS ( ppg) since Nov 29, 2009 the week after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers. The Saints are ATS (8.07 ppg) since Oct 31, 2010 as a home favorite the week after a home game. The Bengals are 7-0 OU (6.79 ppg) since Jan 08, 2006 when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average after a loss. Steelers at Titans - The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) since Oct 07, 2007 after a road loss in which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards. The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-8.93 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 as a home dog. The Titans are 8-0 OU (14.56 ppg) since Oct 03, 1999 as a dog after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average on the road. NFL HANDICAPPING BIBLE Active Trends Trends Sports Data Query Language MIA008: The Dolphins are 0-12 ATS as a home favorite after a game in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. CAR007: The Panthers are 0-10 ATS as a favorite the week before a bye. DEN003: The Broncos are 8-0 ATS on the road when they were on the road in their previous game as well. team=dolphins and HF and p:py/p:ry>=3 and season>=2004 team=panthers and F and n:week = 2 + week and season>=1998 team=broncos and A and p:a and date>= SD007: The Chargers are 0-8 ATS at home after two straight road losses. CHI012: The Bears are 0-24 OU the week after a road loss by more than a field goal in which they suffered a minus two or worse turnover margin, as long as they were not a double-digit dog in that loss. team=chargers and H and p:al and pp:al and date>= team=bears and p:margin<-3 and 2<=p:TOM and p:a and NB and p:line<10 and season>=1992 Every week there are several active trends available in the 2014 NFL Handicapping Bible. Check your copy to find trends not included here. If you have yet to download your copy, do so at COPYRIGHT NOTICE All the material in this publication is copyrighted by the United States Government. No part of this periodical may be reproduced in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, and electronic recording without written consent from Killer Sports Publishing. If the reader has any questions or comments about this newsletter, please write us at: Killer Sports Publishing or us at: PO Box 862, Berea OH support@killersports.com 2014 NFL Week 11 11