Qipco 2000 Guineas Analysis:

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Qipco 2000 Guineas Analysis:"

Allyson Murphy
5 years ago
Views:

1 Qipco 2000 Guineas Analysis: Trends & Pedigree Analysing the Newmarket 2000 Guineas from an alternative viewpoint Guide by Badly Drawn Horse

2 2000 Guineas (Group 1) 30 th April 3:45 Newmarket

3 2000 Guineas: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the 2000 Guineas so that we can apply them to this year s entries Guineas Trends 1 15/15 had a 75%+ W-P S/R 2 15/15 Top 3 finish LTO 3 14/15 had won at least 50% of their starts 4 14/15 made their racecourse debut at a G1 track 5 14/15 had at least previously placed at group level 6 14/15 had not finished lower than 4th in their career 7 14/15 were GB or IRE bred 8 13/15 had previously won at 7f or 8f 9 13/15 had 2+ previous victories 10 13/15 were born on or before the 26th of March 11 13/15 ran in a Group race last time out 12 12/15 had won on their racecourse debut (all top 4 finish)

4 Guineas Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the 2000 Guineas to this year s entrants Tot GALILEO GOLD Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 11/12 AIR FORCE BLUE Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Y 10/12 BURATINO Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 10/12 STORMY ANTARCTIC Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 10/12 AIR VICE MARSHAL Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N 9/12 MARCEL N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N 9/12 MASSAAT Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N 9/12 RIBCHESTER Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N 8/12 FIRST SELECTION N N Y N Y N N Y Y Y N Y 6/12 HERALD THE DAWN Y N N N Y N Y Y Y N Y N 6/12 ZONDERLAND N N N N N N Y Y N Y Y Y 5/12 ZHUI FENG N Y N N N N Y N Y Y N N 4/12 KENTUCKYCONNECTION N N N N N N N Y N Y N Y 3/12 Trend Follower(s) GALILEO GOLD

5 2000 Guineas: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the 2000 Guineas and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 15/15 had 10 points or more in their DP 12/15 had 22 points or more in their DP DI 14/15 had a DI of 2.16 or below 12/15 had a DI of 1.67 or below 0/15 had a DI below 0.60 CD 14/15 had a CD of 0.57 or below 1/15 had a CD below DPA (12/15) - DQ - 2 / / PATB - 0

6 Guineas Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit HERALD THE DAWN / STORMY ANTARCTIC / BURATINO GALILEO GOLD / RIBCHESTER / FIRST SELECTION / ZONDERLAND / Can t be discounted MASSAAT / AIR VICE MARSHAL KENTUCKYCONNECTION Not ideal MARCEL / Wide of the mark ZHUI FENG / AIR FORCE BLUE

7 Guineas: Pace & Draw Analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle Draw Horse RS Running Style 13 AIR VICE MARSHAL CP/HU CP/HU 12 ZONDERLAND CP/HU CP/HU 11 HERALD THE DAWN CP CP 10 FIRST SELECTION FR/CP FR/CP 9 STORMY ANTARCTIC CP/HU CP/HU 8 MASSAAT CP CP 7 MARCEL CP CP 6 ZHUI FENG CP CP 5 AIR FORCE BLUE CP/HU CP/HU 4 KENTUCKYCONNECTION CP/HU CP/HU 3 RIBCHESTER CP CP 2 BURATINO CP CP 1 GALILEO GOLD CP CP HU CP FR AIR VICE MARSHAL ZONDERLAND HERALD THE DAWN STORMY ANTARCTIC FIRST SELECTION MASSAAT MARCEL ZHUI FENG AIR FORCE BLUE KENTUCKYCONNECTION RIBCHESTER BURATINO GALILEO GOLD May not be a massive amount of pace on here and it may fall to FIRST SELECTION from the 10 box to sit at the head of affairs. With only 13 going to post I don t imagine there will be any significant draw advantage. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-1 / cp-4 / hu-10

8 2000 Guineas Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 14) GALILEO GOLD 13/14 STORMY ANTARCTIC 12/14 BURATINO 12/14 MASSAAT 10/14 AIR FORCE BLUE 10/14 Conclusion/Selection(s) They could all be chasing place-prize money if AFB is as good as they say/think but I couldn t entertain him at 8/11 and I m happy to play two against him E/W. GALILEO GOLD (H Palmer) Hugo Palmer made giants strides last year and I expect him to continue on his upward curve this term, with this 3yo one of his main players. The Paco Boy colt improved with each run last term and the slight softening of the ground here will only aid his chances. He holds a strong profile for this contest and with the Palmer yard in fine form at present (5 winners from last 15) he should have enough in his locker to at least give the fav a fright. BURATINO (M Johnston) The only horse so far to lower the colours of Air Force Blue (with a convincing win in the Coventry Stakes) and also the horse that has gotten the closest to the high-class Shalaa of the John Gosden yard (a staying on 2 nd,1/2 behind, in the Middle Park Stakes). He is yet to race over further than 6f but his last two starts very much suggested a mile could well be within his locker. At the prices is certainly worth finding out if he stays.

9 Please undertake sensible betting practices at all times. Visit to find out more about gambling. Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.

Glorious Goodwood Day 4:

Glorious Goodwood Day 4: Glorious Stakes & Thoroughbred Stakes Trends & Pedigree Analysing the 2014 Glorious Stakes & Thoroughbred Stakes from an alternative viewpoint Guide by Badly Drawn Horse www.badlydrawnhorse.co.uk