Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Analysis:

Transcription

1 Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Analysis: Trends & Pedigree Analysing 5 races from day 1 of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival from an alternative viewpoint Guide by Narrowing The Field

2 Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) 15 th March 1.30 Cheltenham

3 Supreme Novices Hurdle: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends 1 14/15 had at least 2 previous hurdle wins 2 13/15 had either won a bumper or had previously run on the flat 3 13/15 were either making their track debut or had previously won at the track 4 13/15 recorded a top 3 finish on their hurdling debut 5 13/15 recorded a top 3 finish on their NH debut 6 13/15 won last time out (last NH start) 7 13/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 8 13/15 recorded an RPR of at least 140 on 1 of their last 3 starts 9 13/15 were aged 5 or /15 ran within past 45 days 11 12/15 had between 2 & 4 previous hurdle runs 12 12/15 were (IRE) OR (GB) bred 13 12/15 ran to an RPR of at least 137 Last Time Out 14 11/15 made their hurdle debut at a Grade 1 track 15 11/15 had a 100% W-P hurdle S/R

4 2016 Supreme Novices Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle to this year s entrants Tot ALTIOR Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y 14/15 CHARBEL Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 13/15 BELLSHILL Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 12/15 BUVEUR D'AIR Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 12/15 TOMBSTONE N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 12/15 MISTER MIYAGI Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N Y Y N Y Y 10/15 NORTH HILL HARVEY N N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 10/15 SUPASUNDAE N Y N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y 10/15 WILLIAM H BONNEY Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N N Y 10/15 HOLLY BUSH HENRY Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N N Y Y N N 9/15 MIN Y N Y N N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N 9/15 PENGLAI PAVILION Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y N N N N 9/15 PETIT MOUCHOIR N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N N N 9/15 SILVER CONCORDE N Y Y Y Y N Y N N N Y Y N Y N 8/15 Trend Follower(s) ALTIOR

5 Supreme Novices Hurdle: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP 12/15 had 14 points or more in their DP DI 12/14 had a DI of 1.50 or below 11/14 had a DI of 1.13 or below CD 12/14 had a CD of 0.34 or below 10/14 had a CD of 0.10 or below DPA (7/15) - DQ - 3 / / PATB - 0

6 2016 Supreme Novices Hurdle Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit HOLLY BUSH HENRY TOMBSTONE / NORTH HILL HARVEY PENGLAI PAVILION ALTIOR DQ CHARBEL DQ WILLIAM H BONNEY / MIN / MISTER MIYAGI / Can t be discounted SUPASUNDAE BELLSHILL / Not ideal PETIT MOUCHOIR / Wide of the mark BUVEUR D AIR / SILVER CONCORDE /

7 2016 Supreme Novices Hurdle: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style ALTIOR CP/HU CP/HU BELLSHILL CP/FR CP/FR BUVEUR D AIR HU/CP HU/CP CHARBEL CP CP HOLLY BUSH HENRY HU/CP HU/CP MIN CP CP MISTER MIYAGI HU HU NORTH HILL HARVEY HU/CP HU/CP PENGLAI PAVILION CP CP PETIT MOUCHOIR HU/CP HU/CP SILVER CONCORDE CP/HU CP/HU SUPASUNDAE CP/HU CP/HU TOMBSTONE HU/CP HU/CP WILLIAM H BONNEY HU/CP HU/CP HU CP FR ALTIOR BELLSHILL BUVEUR D AIR MISTER MIYAGI CHARBEL HOLLY BUSH HENRY NORTH HILL HARVEY MIN PETIT MOUCHOIR PENGLAI PAVILION SILVER CONCORDE SUPASUNDAE TOMBSTONE WILLIAM H BONNEY This may be up to BELLSHILL to pull the field along although it would also be no surprise to see MIN be right in the firing line as well. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-3 / cp-6 / hu-6

8 Supreme Novices Hurdle Trial Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 16) ALTIOR -15/16 CHARBEL 14/16 TOMBSTONE 13/16 BELLSHILL -12/16 BUVEUR D AIR 12/16 Conclusion/Selection(s) ALTIOR (N Henderson) The course and distance winner has done precious little wrong over hurdle to date and there is a real chance that this larger field will bring about even more improvement from him. He ll be right at home on the drying ground, De Boinville gets on fantastically with him (5/5), the form of his last race has worked out superbly and there is a real chance he could shake-up the hot fav Min. TOMBSTONE (G Elliott) I rate this horse highly and I think he s been undone the last twice in Ireland by small field/tactical affairs. He ll get cover in a true gallop here and that will suit him much better and he ll be able to put his G1 form to good use in this contest.

9 Arkle Chase (Grade 1) 15 th March 2.10 Cheltenham

10 Arkle Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Arkle Chase Trends 1 14/15 no more than 18 previous NH starts 2 14/15 were rated 142+ over hurdles 3 13/15 had a 75%+ W-P chase S/R 4 13/15 1st or 2nd last time out 5 13/15 had previously recorded a top 2 finish at G1 or G2 level 6 13/15 aged 5, 6 or /15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 8 13/15 had 3, 4 or 5 starts in current season 9 13/15 finished 1st or 2nd on their Chase debut 10 13/15 ran within past 66 days 11 12/15 finished in the top 2 on all chase starts to date 12 11/15 ran at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level last time out 13 11/15 had 3, 4 or 5 previous chase starts

11 2016 Arkle Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase to this year s entrants Tot DOUVAN Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13/13 VANITEUX Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13/13 SIZING JOHN Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 11/13 FOX NORTON Y Y N N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y 9/13 ASO Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y 8/13 BALTIMORE ROCK Y N Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y N N 8/13 THE GAME CHANGER N Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y N N 7/13 Trend Follower(s) DOUVAN VANITEUX

12 Arkle Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP DI 10/14 had a DI of 1.00 or above 0/14 had a DI above 2.33 CD 10/14 had a CD of 0.00 or above 9/14 had a CD of 0.21 or above 0/14 had a CD above 0.61 DPA (4/15) - DQ - 1 / / PATB - 1

13 2016 Arkle Chase: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit ASO SIZING JOHN / Can t be discounted VANITEUX / Not ideal BALTIMORE ROCK / THE GAME CHANGER DQ DOUVAN / FOX NORTON / Wide of the mark N/A

14 2016 Arkle Chase: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style ASO CP/FR CP/FR BALTIMORE ROCK HU HU DOUVAN FR/CP FR/CP FOX NORTON CP/FR CP/FR SIZING JOHN CP/FR CP/FR THE GAME CHANGER CP/HU CP/HU VANITEUX CP CP HU CP FR BALTIMORE ROCK ASO DOUVAN FOX NORTON THE GAME CHANGER SIZING JOHN VANITEUX DOUVAN will go from the front here but he s unlikely to get a free shot at the lead as any of ASO, FOX NORTON or SIZING JOHN could well decide to try and pressure him on the front end. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-1 / cp-10 / hu-4

15 Arkle Chase Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 14) DOUVAN 13/14 VANITEUX 13/14 SIZING JOHN 12/14 Conclusion/Selection(s) No Selection I ve no real desire to go against DOUVAN for the sake of it and it s surely a case of him just jumping round to win. VANITEUX & SIZING JOHN are not that far off on the figures at all but it s hard to get away from the fact that Vaniteux is 0/5 at the track (yet to jumps the fences admittedly) and Sizing John has been beaten out of sight the 4 times he has met Douvan. Hard to see anything but a win for Douvan here and I m happy to sit it out.

16 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 Hcp) 15 th March 2.50 Cheltenham

17 Ultima Handicap Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Ultima Hcp Chase so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Ultima Handicap Chase Trends 1 15/15 were aged between 7 & /15 had an OR 146 or below 3 14/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 4 14/15 had 26 or less previous NH starts 5 14/15 had 2 or less previous handicap chase victories 6 14/15 carried or less to victory 7 13/15 had previously won at 3m+ 8 13/15 had 15 or less previous chase starts 9 12/15 had previously recorded a top 4 finish at the track 10 12/15 had between 2 & 5 runs in current season 11 12/15 had recorded a top 2 finish at class 2 level or better 12 12/15 were (IRE) bred 13 12/15 had between 2 & 4 previous chase victories (all had at least 2 chase wins) 14 12/15 had a top 3 finish last time out

18 2016 Ultima Handicap Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Ultima Handicap Chase to this year s entrants Tot INDIAN CASTLE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 13/14 MORNING ASSEMBLY Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/14 BEG TO DIFFER N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 12/14 AUDACIOUS PLAN Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N 12/14 ACCORDING TO TREV Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 12/14 CAROLES DESTRIER Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y 11/14 THEATRE GUIDE Y N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y 11/14 SPRING HEELED Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N 11/14 ALGERNON PAZHAM Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N 11/14 DOING FINE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N 11/14 BAND OF BLOOD Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y N Y 11/14 HOLYWELL Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N 10/14 SOUTHFIELD THEATRE Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N 10/14 UN TEMPS POUR TOUT Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N 10/14 REGAL ENCORE Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Y N N 10/14 OUT SAM Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N N Y Y 10/14 SHANAHANS TURN Y N Y Y Y N N Y N Y Y Y Y N 9/14 THE YOUNG MASTER Y N Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N 9/14 FOX APPEAL Y N Y N Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N 9/14 O MAONLAI Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N Y N N 9/14 BALLYKAN N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y N 9/14 DOUBLE ROSS Y N Y N Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y N 8/14 KRUZHLININ Y N Y Y N N Y Y N N Y N N Y 7/14 KATENKO Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N N N 6/14 Trend Follower(s) INDIAN CASTLE

19 Ultima Handicap Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Ultima Handicap Chase and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 13/15 had 8 points or more in their DP DI 13/13 had a CD of 0.64 or above 12/13 had a CD of 0.74 or above 3/13 had a CD above 1.32 CD 12/13 had a CD of or above 10/13 had a CD of 0.00 or above 1/13 had a CD above 0.64 DPA (6/15) - DQ - 2 / / PATB - 1

20 2016 Ultima Handicap Chase: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit ACCORDING TO TREV / THE YOUNG MASTER / SOUTHFIELD THEATRE FOX APPEAL / INDIAN CASTLE / HOLYWELL THEATRE GUIDE / UN TEMPS POUR TOUT / SPRING HEELED / CAROLES DESTRIER KRUZHLININ PATB Can t be discounted BAND OF BLOOD BEG TO DIFFER PATB MORNING ASSEMBLY / SHANAHANS TURN / REGAL ENCORE OUT SAM DQ Not ideal KATENKO / AUDACIOUS PLAN / ALGERNON PAZHAM PATB Wide of the mark O MAONLAI BALLYKAN PATB DOING FINE PATB DOUBLE ROSS /

21 2016 Ultima Handicap Chase: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style SHANAHANS TURN CP CP HOLYWELL CP CP CAROLES DESTRIER HU/CP HU/CP SOUTHFIELD THEATRE FR/CP FR/CP THEATRE GUIDE CP/HU CP/HU MORNING ASSEMBLY CP/FR CP/FR DOUBLE ROSS CP/HU CP/HU THE YOUNG MASTER CP/FR CP/FR KRUZHLININ CP/HU CP/HU UN TEMPS POUR TOUT HU/CP HU/CP FOX APPEAL CP/HU CP/HU KATENKO HU/CP HU/CP SPRING HEELED HU/CP HU/CP BEG TO DIFFER CP CP REGAL ENCORE CP/HU CP/HU ALGERNON PAZHAM HU/CP HU/CP OUT SAM CP CP O MAONLAI HU/CP HU/CP BALLYKAN CP CP DOING FINE HU/CP HU/CP INDIAN CASTLE CP/HU CP/HU BAND OF BLOOD HU/CP HU/CP AUDACIOUS PLAN CP CP ACCORDING TO TREV CP/HU CP/HU HU CP FR BAND OF BLOOD SHANAHANS TURN UN TEMPS POUR TOUT HOLYWELL CAROLES DESTRIER SOUTHFIELD THEATRE THEATRE GUIDE MORNING ASSEMBLY DOUBLE ROSS THE YOUNG MASTER KRUZHLININ FOX APPEAL KATENKO BEG TO DIFFER SPRING HEELED OUT SAM REGAL ENCORE ALGERNON PAZHAM O MAONLAI BALLYKAN DOING FINE AUDACIOUS PLAN INDIAN CASTLE ACCORDING TO TREV SOUTHFIELD THEATRE, MORNING ASSEMBLY & THE YOUNG MASTER look the likeliest pace-setters in this. The vast majority of the others will be sitting and waiting to unleashes their challenges late in the day. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-0 / cp-5 / hu-10

22 Ultima Handicap Chase Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 15) INDIAN CASTLE 14/15 ACCORDING TO TREV 13/15 THEATRE GUIDE 12/15 SPRING HEELED 12/15 CAROLES DESTRIER 12/15 BEG TO DIFFER 12/15 MORNING ASSEMBLY 12/15 AUDACIOUS PLAN 12/15 Conclusion/Selection(s) INDIAN CASTLE (I Williams) This 8yo ran a career best in this race last year off a 5lb higher mark and he would have finished plenty closer had he not been hampered on the run-in as well. He s struggled a little on the deep winter ground so far this term but this better ground will suit and he does seem to enjoy the Cheltenham fences (17045), springtime (March-May form of 1742P1) and trips around the 3m0.5f 3m1f mark (1414). Leighton Aspell gets the ride for the first time and he seems to ride these fences well from limited recent opportunities (2 wins, 1 place from 7 rides) and this one looks a player at lofty odds. BEG TO DIFFER (JJ O Neill) Jonjo s yard have been quite since the turn of the year (4/83) however this lad was one of the 4 that managed to win in that spell, and win impressively, and I m pretty sure he s still a fair bit ahead of his mark on OR 143. The horse has already jumped round these fences safely and although he s yet to race on anything other than Soft or Heavy I don t see him having any issue with the Good to Soft ground here. He s progressive, runs well in the Feb/Mar period (111) and although I m a little concerned by Aidan Coleman s poor festival record I do want to have this horse on side at the prices. SPRING HEELED (J Culloty) He s become a tad frustrating of late but this former festival winner is still relatively lightly raced for a 9yo and is on a handy mark based on his best form. Decent ground seems to be the key to him so this drying ground will be in his favour and I suspect Culloty has kept him fresh specifically for this target.

23 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 15 th March 3.30 Cheltenham

24 Champion Hurdle: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Champion Hurdle so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Champion Hurdle Trends 1 15/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 2 15/15 did NOT run in a handicap last time out 3 14/15 won 1 of their last 3 starts 4 14/15 had a 60%+ W-P Hurdle S/R 5 14/15 had previously finished in the top 4 at the track 6 13/15 had their last run between 19 & 52 days previous 7 13/15 had 4+ previous hurdle victories 8 13/15 no more than 28 TOTAL career starts 9 13/15 had previously won at Grade 1 level 10 13/15 ran at previous seasons Festival AND finished in the top /15 had no more than 20 previous hurdle starts 12 12/15 had 3 or 4 starts in current season 13 12/15 were aged 6, 7 or /15 had an OR of /15 ran in a graded race last time out 16 12/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred 17 11/15 won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race in current season 18 11/15 won last time out (all finished in the top 4) 19 11/15 had previously run on the flat

25 2016 Champion Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Champion Hurdle to this year s entrants Tot NICHOLS CANYON Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 18/19 THE NEW ONE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 17/19 CAMPING GROUND Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y 15/19 SEMPRE MEDICI Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 15/19 ANNIE POWER Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y N Y N 14/19 IDENTITY THIEF Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N 12/19 LIL ROCKERFELLER N Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y N N N Y N Y Y Y 11/19 MY TENT OR YOURS Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y N N Y Y Y N N N 11/19 PEACE AND CO Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N N N N N 11/19 TOP NOTCH N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N N N Y N 11/19 HARGAM Y Y N N Y N N Y N Y Y Y N N Y N N N Y 9/19 SIGN OF A VICTORY Y Y N N N N N Y N N Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y 9/19 Trend Follower(s) NICHOLS CANYON

26 Champion Hurdle: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Champion Hurdle and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 12 points or more in their DP 13/15 had 14 points or more in their DP DI 14/14 had a DI of 1.80 or below 12/14 had a DI of 1.67 or below 2/14 had a DI below 0.56 CD 14/14 had a CD of 0.63 or below 12/14 had a CD of 0.43 or below 2/14 had a CD below DPA (9/15) - DQ - 2 / / PATB - 1

27 2016 Champion Hurdle: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit LIL ROCKERFELLER HARGAM / THE NEW ONE / IDENTITY THIEF / TOP NOTCH / SIGN OF A VICTORY ANNIE POWER / Can t be discounted NICHOLS CANYON MY TENT OR YOURS DQ SEMPRE MEDICI Not ideal PEACE AND CO / CAMPING GROUND Wide of the mark N/A

28 2016 Champion Hurdle: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style CAMPING GROUND CP CP HARGAM HU/CP HU/CP IDENTITY THIEF FR/CP FR/CP LIL ROCKERFELLER CP CP MY TENT OR YOURS HU/CP HU/CP NICHOLS CANYON CP/FR CP/FR PEACE AND CO HU HU SEMPRE MEDICI CP/HU CP/HU SIGN OF A VICTORY HU HU THE NEW ONE CP CP TOP NOTCH CP CP ANNIE POWER FR/CP FR/CP HU CP FR CAMPING GROUND HARGAM IDENTITY THIEF PEACE AND CO LIL ROCKERFELLER MY TENT OR YOURS NICHOLS CANYON SIGN OF A VICTORY SEMPRE MEDICI ANNIE POWER THE NEW ONE TOP NOTCH Potential for there to be a decent pace on here IDENTITY THIEF, NICHOLS CANYON & ANNIE POWER all potentials to be on the front end. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-3 / cp-7 / hu-5

29 Champion Hurdle Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 20) THE NEW ONE 18/20 NICHOLS CANYON 18/20 ANNIE POWER 15/20 SEMPRE MEDICI 15/20 CAMPING GROUND 15/20 Conclusion/Selection(s) NICHOLS CANYON (W Mullins) There is no doubt this lad is a classy beast, six G1 s in the bank tell us that, and it s easy enough to forgive his run last time out where he tried to go toe to toe with Faugheen after himself having taken part in a gruelling contest over Xmas. He was beaten fav in the Neptune last term but he maybe just didn t quite stay that 21f trip and he did miss out the second last just as he was starting to lay down a serious challenge. He s a fast and fluent jumper when the ground isn t overly testing and if Townend can just sit on the tails of the leaders he can kick on coming down the hill and use his 18f-20f stamina to beat the others off coming back up the hill. THE NEW ONE (N Twiston-Davies) It s not the easiest task to come back and try and win the Champion Hurdle after previous failed attempts but it can be done (Hors La Loi III, Brave Inca & Punjabi in recent seasons) and I think it s fair to say that this renewal probably isn t quite up to the previous two renewals he has taken part in. He had a terrible preparation for the race last year but reports are that he s been markedly straighter this time round and it would be no shock should he be bang there come the death.

30 Close Brothers Novices Hcp Chase (Listed) 15 th March 5.30 Cheltenham

31 Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 11 winners of the Close Brothers Novices Chase so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Close Brothers Novices Chase Trends 1 11/11 yet to win at higher than Class 2 level 2 10/11 carried or less 3 10/11 had between 3 & 6 chase starts 4 10/11 had 0-2 chase wins 5 10/11 no more than 17 NH starts 6 10/ DSLR 7 10/11 wore no headgear (tt not included) 8 10/11 running from a higher OR than LTO 9 9/11 won 1 of last 3 starts 10 9/11 were aged 6 or /11 finished in top 2 last time out 12 9/11 had previously recorded a top 2 finish over 20f-21f

32 2016 Close Brothers Novices Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Close Brothers Novices Chase to this year s entrants Tot FOURTH ACT Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y 11/12 FIVE IN A ROW Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y 11/12 DOUBLE SHUFFLE Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y 10/12 DOMESDAY BOOK Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N Y 9/12 BRIDGETS PET Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y N Y Y 9/12 ALOOMOMO Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 8/12 THOMAS BROWN Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y 8/12 AMORE ALATO Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N Y 8/12 JAVERT Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N 8/12 RACING PULSE Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N 8/12 WILLOWS SAVIOUR N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y 8/12 REZORBI Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N N 8/12 KATGARY Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N Y 8/12 MCKINLEY N N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y 7/12 KILLALA QUAY N N N Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Y 7/12 ON TOUR Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N N 7/12 TWELVE ROSES Y N Y Y Y Y N N N N Y Y 7/12 BALLYALTON Y N Y Y Y Y N N N N N Y 6/12 BOUVREUIL Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y N N N 6/12 JAYO TIME Y Y N N N Y N N N Y Y Y 6/12 Trend Follower(s) FIVE IN A ROW FOURTH ACT

33 Close Brothers Novices Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 11 winners of the Close Brothers Novices Chase and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 11/11 had 8 points or more in their DP DI 9/11 had a DI of 1.18 or below 8/11 had a DI of 1.00 or below CD 9/11 had a CD of 0.20 or below 8/11 had a CD of 0.00 or below DPA (6/11) - DQ - 1 / / PATB - 2

34 2016 Close Brothers Novices Chase: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit KATGARY / ON TOUR DQ DOUBLE SHUFFLE / AMORE ALATO FIVE IN A ROW / Can t be discounted FOURTH ACT / JAYO TIME DQ BOUVREUIL / JAVERT KILLALA QUAY / Not ideal REZORBI PATB RACING PULSE / Wide of the mark TWELVE ROSES / DOMESDAY BOOK / THOMAS BROWN / WILLOWS SAVIOUR / BRIDGETS PET BALLYALTON / MCKINLEY ALOOMOMO /

35 2016 Close Brothers Novices Chase: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style BALLYALTON CP CP ALOOMOMO CP/HU CP/HU BRIDGETS PET HU/CP HU/CP THOMAS BROWN CP CP DOMESDAY BOOK CP CP AMORE ALATO CP CP MCKINLEY CP/HU CP/HU JAVERT CP CP KILLALA QUAY FR FR RACING PULSE CP/HU CP/HU ON TOUR CP/HU CP/HU WILLOWS SAVIOUR CP/FR CP/FR TWELVE ROSES CP CP DOUBLE SHUFFLE CP CP BOUVREUIL HU HU JAYO TIME CP/HU CP/HU REZORBI HU HU KATGARY CP/FR CP/FR FOURTH ACT CP/HU CP/HU FIVE IN A ROW CP/FR CP/FR HU CP FR BRIDGETS PET BALLYALTON ALOOMOMO KILLALA QUAY THOMAS BROWN DOMESDAY BOOK BOUVREUIL AMORE ALATO MCKINLEY JAVERT RACING PULSE WILLOWS SAVIOUR ON TOUR TWELVE ROSES REZORBI DOUBLE SHUFFLE KATGARY JAYO TIME FOURTH ACT FIVE IN A ROW KILLALA QUAY should lead this field along from the front with the likes of WILLOWS SAVIOUR, KATGARY & FIVE IN A ROW all sitting close on his tail. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-1 / cp-3 / hu-7

36 Close Brothers Novices Chase Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 13) FIVE IN A ROW 12/13 DOUBLE SHUFFLE 11/13 FOURTH ACT 11/13 KATGARY 9/13 AMORE ALATO 9/13 DOMESDAY BOOK 9/13 BRIDGETS PET 9/13 Conclusion/Selection(s) DOUBLE SHUFFLE (T George) This one has been on my radar for spring handicaps since running 11L 4 th to More Of That over C&D in November so I m delighted he comes out top of the figures here. He also ran an eye-catching race over the Cheltenham fences on seasonal debut as well, just finding the race fit Art Mauresque too strong for him at the finish. He s clearly been saved for this since opening his chase account at Ludlow in December and he looks to have an excellent chance in this with the drying ground sure to suit and improvement highly likely from OR 138. FIVE IN A ROW (B Ellison) This 8yo sneaks in at the foot of the weights and comes here in bouncing form having won his last two starts, recording career best figures both times. He has strong form over 2m3f-2m4f (21311), Danny Cook gets on well with him (121) and he handles large fields well (11510). He looks to have a good chance of outrunning his odds. FOURTH ACT (C Tizzard) I m far from convinced these will prove to be the horse s ideal conditions, however, he s lightly enough raced for me to risk it and the 28-1 odds more than factor in my concerns. It maybe just took a while for the penny to fully drop for him and his win last time suggested he s now getting the hang of things (a big career best) and he definitely rates as a progressive type. The booking of Tom Scu also catches the eye as he has a 35% strike-rate for the yard in the past two years from a book of only 23 rides.

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