Aintree. online preview

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1 Aintree online preview

2 The Going: There is little or no rain expected at Aintree for the next few days, which means the ground will be riding more on the good side than the current good to soft. By Saturday this could leave the proven mudlarks in the Grand National at a disadvantage. DAY ONE - THURSDAY 1.45: Manifesto Novices Chase This is a proper teaser to start to open the meeting, with the progressive and sound-jumping Frodon stepping up in grade against Arkle runner-up Cloudy Dream and the JLT Novices Chase second Top Notch. Flying Angel, who ran sixth in the JLT, will be far better suited to this track than Cheltenham. I would prefer not to be drawn on this one. Cloudy Dream has not run this far over fences but showed it would pose no problem over hurdles last season. Top Notch stays the trip very well while Frodon has achieved great things given his tender years. No selection 2.20: Doom Bar Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle It is very hard to look beyond Triumph Hurdle winner Defi Du Seuil, who did everything expected of him at Cheltenham. The winner of all six of his races for Philip Hobbs, the only concern is that the busy season may soon be catching up with him. He handled the quicker ground well at Cheltenham and it would take a vastly below-par performance to see him beaten. Of the others Divin Bere tackled the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, where he finished a close second to Flying Tiger, because trainer Nicky Henderson did not think him good enough for the Triumph. He is progressive but official figures leave him 10lb shy of the favourite. Flying Tiger meets Divin Bere on 5lb worse terms here but the winner is a tough sort and there may not be much between them. Forth Bridge made all to win at Musselburgh last time and comes here fresh, having missed Cheltenham, but he has over a stone to find on figures. No selection 2.50: Betway Bowl Chase This race revolves around Cue Card, who was magnificent when beating Don Poli in this race last year but looked held when falling at the third-last in the Gold Cup last month. The likely good ground should not bother him. The main threat on the book is Empire Of Dirt, who may have found the distance of the Ryanair shorter than ideal. His form when running subsequent Gold Cup winner Sizing John to threequarters of a length at Leopardstown in February could hardly read better, while before that he won the Troytown Chase at Navan by four lengths. Last season ended with a victory in the 2m 5f handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Nothing was staying on more strongly at the finish of the Ryanair so this return to three miles should prove ideal.

3 Bristol De Mai impressed enormously at Haydock in the Peter Marsh and was then wrong when beaten at Newbury. He may not have stayed the trip in the Gold Cup, where his jockey thinks he was below his best, but the concern here is the ground, which will be faster than it was at Haydock. Silviniaco Conti, who won this in 2014 and 2015, loves this place and showed when a good third in the King George VI Chase that he retains much of his ability. He was 42 lengths behind Cue Card at Haydock in November but he is a different proposition round here. I confidently expect him to run a good race. Tea For Two departed early in the Gold Cup but finished just behind Silviniaco Conti in the King George. He is progressive and suited to a flat track. Smad Place is best when able to dominate in soft ground and his recent form suggests he has lost his edge. Aso ran well at Cheltenham but was beaten in handicaps before that. Cue Card would win this if he were back to his best, but he didn t look on great terms with himself at Cheltenham and that is a concern. Empire Of Dirt has sound claims but at the price let s take a chance with Silviniaco Conti, who saves his best for this meeting. 3.25: Betway Aintree Hurdle Buveur D Air should not be as short as 4/11 to win this. The six-year-old is a long-standing favourite of mine, having been selected for the Champion Hurdle in my Dark Horses preview back in the autumn, but he comes here with an official rating just 5lb superior to My Tent Or Yours and The New One. Furthermore he is untested over this trip. Having said that the six-year-old gives every indication that he will stay two and a half miles and he is half-brother to winners over 2m 3f, 2m 6f and 3m 1f, but at odds of 4/11 you want everything in your favour and that is not the case here. My Tent Or Yours, as expected, ran another sound race at Cheltenham, finishing second for the third time. He settles far better these days than he once did, but he didn t seem to get home in this race last year. By contrast The New One showed he stayed this trip well when beating Rock On Ruby in this race three years ago. The only time he has run over the distance since then was when he fell at the fifth in this race last spring. He has ground to find with Buveur D Air and My Tent Or Yours from Cheltenham, but he was plugging on at the finish there and would have been closer over a further half mile. Identity Thief has struggled in recent runs over fences and is held by My Tent Or Yours and The New One on last year s Champion Hurdle form. Old Guard stays the trip well and likes good ground but he has ground to make up. Rashaan showed his best form when beating Apple s Jade in November but he is untried at this trip. I am prepared to take a chance in opposing Buveur D Air with The New One, who is still relatively unexposed over this distance but was staying on steadily in the Champion Hurdle. 4.05: Randox Health Foxhunters Open Hunters Chase Pacha Du Polder, who ran second in this race in 2015 and sixth last year, returned to winning ways with a neck defeat of the luckless Wonderful Charm in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham last month. Main danger On The Fringe, winner of this race for the last two seasons, was two and a half

4 lengths back in fourth there on ground that was probably a shade too fast for him. The same comment may apply here. Poole Master has run well here in the past and beat Mon Parrain in gritty fashion at Warwick in March. Black Thunder, who has the invaluable assistance of Sam Waley-Cohen, was pulled up at Cheltenham after losing a shoe. He is better than that. Loch Ba in on good terms with life at the moment while Balnaslow, just three lengths behind the winner at Cheltenham, will be ridden by top amateur Derek O Connor. He made a few mistakes and also lost a shoe in the race. Rebel Rebellion is not out of it. No selection 4.40: Betway Red Rum Handicap Chase I know that Brian Hughes thought Double W s was his best chance of a winner at Cheltenham but after being up there for a long way in the Close Brothers Handicap Chase he didn t appear to see out the extended two and a half miles. His form before that reads well, with his three victories coming over this sort of trip on good ground. Now rated 1lb lower than at Cheltenham and just 4lb above his last winning mark, and with trainer Malcolm Jefferson s fine record at this meeting, I am expecting a return to form. Jodie is very keen on Grand Annual third Theinval, while Dandridge was two and a half lengths behind him in fourth and now meets the third on 3lb better terms. Doitforthevillage has been in consistent form this season but is prone to errors. This is competitive but I understand Double W s is in good form at home and is back racing at his best trip and favoured ground. At around 9/1 he is fair each-way value. 5.15: Goffs Nickel Coin Mares Standard Open NH Flat Race Pettocoat Tails, who wears cheekpieces for the first time, represents the best form having run a close second to Cap Soleil in a Listed race at Sandown. Brendan Powell s Sweetlittlemystery is very tough, having won by a head at Towcester and then staying on well to beat Storm Patrol at Ascot. The concern for her is the sharpness of the track. Irish Roe is better than she looked at Cheltenham and the value at around 9/1 may be with Brian Ellison s Shearling, winner of three of her four starts. The daughter of Rail Link ran out a very easy winner last time at Catterick and will be racing on the Flat after this. Her trainer rates her highly and she will be suited by the tight track. This race can throw up an outsider but Shearling looks sure to run well.

5 DAY TWO - FRIDAY 3.25: JLT Melling Chase Such is the open nature of this race that three horses are vying for favouritism at around the 3/1 mark. Fox Norton, who ran such a good second to Special Tiara in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, shapes as if he will be suited by this step up in trip. Before Cheltenham he hacked up from a mark of 146 in a Cheltenham handicap in October and then followed up at the course beating Simply Ned by nine lengths in a Grade 2 contest. He had an interrupted preparation before chasing home Altior at Newbury and the main concern is the trainer s form, which has fallen below the heights he attained before Christmas. Sub Lieutenant ran a blinder behind Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair Chase. The eight-year-old was unable to adopt his customary front-running role on that occasion having beaten Outlander at Down Royal in November and then run second to Djakadam at Punchestown in December and Sizing John in January. He could set this field a merry dance from the outset. Gods Own, who beat Al Ferof here last year, has almost eight lengths to find with Fox Norton from Cheltenham. This will be tougher. Uxizandre, beaten 30 lengths by Un De Sceaux at Cheltenham, may spoil things up front for Sub Lieutenant. He is at his best with an uncontested lead and Alan King is bringing the visor back. Kylemore Lough really needs softer ground than he will get here but Traffic Fluide is worth a second look. The seven-year-old would have finished closer in the Queen Mother Chase but for a mistake when running on at the last and he is young enough to improve. Josses Hill does not seem to get on well at Cheltenham. Good ground around a flat track suits him better and I expect him to reduce the 16 lengths deficit with Sub Lieutenant from the Ryanair Chase. His earlier form when beaten seven lengths in the King George and beating Tea For Two at Huntingdon reads very well and this is his time of year. Royal Regatta and Top Gamble have a lot to do. With both Uxizandre and Sub Lieutenant vying for the lead this could be set up for a closer. With slight concerns on pedigree about Fox Norton s stamina I am prepared to look elsewhere and suggest a modest interest in Traffic Fluide, who showed at Cheltenham that he is progressing fast. Josses Hill could also outrun his price if he keeps his jumping together. Others To Note On Friday Jodie is keen on the chance of Nicky Henderson s Thomas Campbell in the opener (1.40). The fiveyear-old ran well last time at Cheltenham but keep an eye also on Hawk High, who also was up there for a long way in the Coral Cup. He has won here twice before, has the good ground he enjoys and has dropped 2lb since his last run. Dream Berry will go close while Caius Marcius is worth a look if he gets into the race. The six-year-old deserved to win last time at Wetherby after an unlucky fall at Musselburgh. Good ground is the key to this horse, who is bred to appreciate the step up in trip. Mount Mews could give River Wylde and Moon Racer something to think about in the Crabbie s Top Novices Hurdle (2.20). Malcolm Jefferson s six-year-old is rated just 3lb off the top here and his trainer rates him as one

6 of the best young horses he has ever had. The trainer won this race with Cyrus Darius two years ago and by all accounts this one is better. Unbeaten in two bumpers and the winner of three of his four starts over hurdles, he runs in the colours of Trevor Hemmings and the drying ground should not bother him. Lough Derg Spirit would be a big threat if this were his favoured target. The five-year-old is one of the slickest jumpers of a hurdle I have seen for years and he swerved Cheltenham for this. This may be harder for River Wylde than the Supreme Hurdle, which may not have been that good a race this year. Moon Racer is a fragile horse who may need more time to get over Cheltenham while Reivers Lad is very promising but this is a steep rise in grade. In what promises to be a good race I suggest we side with Mount Mews, with Lough Derg Spirit a big threat if he runs here. Might Bite is already odds-on for the Betway Mildmay Novices Chase to confirm the big impression he made at Cheltenham (2.50). Whisper, who has run so well at this meeting over the years, will be out to atone for his narrow by his stable companion. Tiger Roll and Starchitect, who has an alternative entry at the meeting, could make it interesting. Gold Present was well handicapped at Cheltenham but following a fine second to Tully East he has been raised 5lb (4.05). Seafood has been laid out for this race by Dr Richard Newland having run second here in December. Others to note are stable-companions Bouvreuil and As De Mee. Jodie is very keen on Debece, who takes a steep rise in grade for the Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle (4.40). The six-year-old is the apple of Tim Vaughan s eye, while Ben Pauling also talks in glowing terms about Le Breuil, who has won his last two starts with loads in hand. He, too, though has to take a step up in class. The Worlds End, who fell at the second last when travelling well in the Albert Bartlett, and Constantine Bay, who was hampered by that incident and lost about 10 lengths, are expected to head the market. I took quite a liking to Run To Milan, who runs in the closing Weatherbys Private Bank Open NH Flat Race, when he won at Wincanton (5.15). Victor Dartnall does well with the handful of horses that come his way, and this five-year-old had the race won a long way from home on his debut. This will be tougher, but at long odds he s worth a look. DAY THREE - SATURDAY 2.25: Betway Mersey Novices Hurdle The market is headed here by Finian s Oscar and Brio Conti. The former had to miss Cheltenham when meeting with a setback at home having impressed when beating Capitaine by five lengths in the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices Hurdle at Sandown. He won far lower-grade contests either side of that at Hereford and Exeter. Finian s Oscar showed a turn of foot at Sandown but I am not convinced he will be suited by this tight track or the drying ground. By contrast Brio Conti prefers better going, winning his last two starts at Doncaster and Kempton on ground described as good. Paul Nicholls says he would have fancied Brio Conti for the Martin

7 Pipe Hurdle at Cheltenham from his mark of 135 but the horse was balloted out. Brio Conti can be keen but the likely strong pace here will suit him. The main threat to both may prove to be Lough Derg Spirit. The son of Westerner, who is an exceptionally slick jumper, missed Cheltenham to run here. The step up to two and a half miles should not bother him while his last victory at Musselburgh came on good ground. On official figures he has a few pounds to find with the market leaders, but we haven t seen the best of him yet and the combination of the good ground and flat track will suit his style of racing. Mount Mews is harder to assess. The six-year-old son of Presenting hacked up last time at Kelso by 49 lengths and is now rated on 145 but he is thought more likely to run in the shorter race on Friday (2.20). Messire Des Obeaux shaped very well when third in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. He is very consistent but may prefer ground and a stiffer track. Beyond Conceit ran a fair sixth in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and should appreciate the step up to two and a half miles. High Bridge was a long way behind Beyond Conceit at Cheltenham. Reivers Lad is useful but may prefer the shorter option on Friday. Noel Meade rates Moulin A Vent highly but says he would be suited to softer ground. At around 6/1 I want to stay with Lough Derg Spirit, whose jumping is a sight to behold. Next best, and the selection in his absence, is Brio Conti with Mount Mews a danger to all if redirected here. 4.20: Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle This race is expected to see Yanworth stepped up to an extended three miles for the first time. The seven-year-old had been well fancied to win the Champion Hurdle, attracting strong market support, but he was outpaced for much of the race until plugging on steadily up the hill. To be perfectly blunt he looked slow, despite having gone into the race the winner of his previous eight starts over hurdles. Yanworth has never made winning look easy, and he does not help his cause by the sloppy jumping. The general consensus seems to be that Yanworth will stay but his pedigree is not convincing on this score. Furthermore, Yanworth has had a busy campaign and appeared to have quite a hard race at Cheltenham. Joint favourite at 3/1 in the midweek betting is Unowhatimeanharry who, by contrast, is thoroughly proven over this trip. Highly progressive, having risen from a mark of 113 three years ago to his current rating of 166, there was no disgrace in going down by just over four lengths to the underrated Nichols Canyon and Lil Rockerfeller in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. He had won his previous eight starts on ground ranging from good to heavy, travelling comfortably within himself through his races and finding plenty at the finish. Cole Harden is the likely pacesetter but he has been a few lengths behind Unowhatimeanharry on their last two meetings. He is rated 5lb lower than this time a year ago but faces a stiffer task. A lot of people have been looking forward to seeing The New One stepped up to three miles. This flat track suits him he has won twice at this meeting, including a defeat of Rock On Ruby over 2m 4f in 2014 on good ground. His pedigree raises hopes that he will stay the trip although trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has his doubts on that score. Given his liking for this place I expect to see him run well but he has been declared to run on Thursday. Jessica Harrington has her horses in tremendous form but Jezki finished a long way back in the

8 Stayers Hurdle and is now rated 9lb below his peak. Stable-companion Supasundae is preferred, on the assumption that he takes up this option rather than carry top weight of 11st 12lb in the handicap hurdle earlier in the day. The key to this son of Galileo is good ground, as he showed when beating Taquin Du Seuil by two lengths in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. His mark rose to 155 afterwards, putting him within 11lb of the market leaders. He is prone to the occasional error, but at around 8/1 he is a reasonably priced outsider. Zarkandar has been a regular at this meeting over the years but he is not getting any younger and ran poorly in the Stayers Hurdle. Ballyoptic was pulled up in the same race. Apple s Jade is not certain to make the meeting. Gordon Elliott s mare put in a truly exceptional performance to reverse Triumph Hurdle form with Ivanovich Gorbatov here last year and last time beat Vroum Vroum Mag over two and a half miles at Cheltenham. She has won on good ground and should stay the trip without being certain to do so. Unowhatimeanharry is preferred to Yanworth but I m expecting a bold effort from the progressive Supasundae, who has just come nicely to hand and has the ground in his favour. 5.15: The Randox Health Grand National The key thing to remember about the Grand National is, following the modification of the fences, that it remains a thorough test of stamina. Before the changes were made to the fences I would have said it was more a test of jumping prowess, but 2013 winner Aurora s Encore would have fallen four out in the old days and there have been other examples since then of horses surviving errors to get round. Conditions this week will be more good than good to soft, but the race will still require a horse with stamina, the right attitude and experience to win. As for the weight, I used to target horses around the mid-10st range and avoid those with more than 11st that certainly served me well in the 90s, when all 10 winners carried 10st 8lb or less. It also carried me forward to the next decade, but since 2009 five of the eight winners have carried 11st or more, perhaps due to the superior class of horse these days and the easier fences. This year s race looks particularly wide open, especially so given the ground will be fair to all. In more demanding conditions you can eliminate many of the runners but with conditions as they are only the confirmed mud-lovers will struggle. Here, then, are my thoughts and conclusions on this year s race. Vieux Lion Rouge was seventh in the race last year appearing not to get home, just as in his previous race in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. He did, though, enjoy the course when winning the Becher Chase and he won in good style over an extended 3m 4f at Haydock. The trip may be the problem. Definitly Red is the best handicapped in the race, having been raised 10lb for winning last time at Doncaster since the weights were published, but trainer Brian Ellison has always had concerns about the horse staying this far. His recent work has been impressive and he has schooled well at home over National-style fences. Cause Of Causes has won at Cheltenham three times, on his latest start beating Bless The Wings by nine lengths in the 3m 6f Glenfarclas Chase, but he was only eighth in this race in 2015 admittedly staying on at the finish and he pulled up in last season s Scottish National. It appears that he saves his best form for Cheltenham.

9 More Of That has been the best backed horses in the last few days. The only horse to have beaten Annie Power when she has stood up in the 2014 Stayers Hurdle he has struggled to replicate that level of form over fences. This is probably attributable to physical issues but he ran well to finish sixth in the Gold Cup and has a touch of class. He is, though, delicate and that could prove a problem. Blaklion has looked a thorough stayer over the years, notably when landing last season s RSA Chase. He can be a slightly tricky ride at times, though, but he has solid form links to Definitly Red and Vieux Lion Rouge and will have the able assistance of Noel Fehily. One For Arthur has very sound claims. He proved he had plenty of stamina when winning the 3m 5f Classic Chase at Warwick having caught the eye when fifth in the Becher Chase at Vieux Lion Rouge. He has finished in the first three in 14 of his 18 starts and has never fallen. He might have preferred softer ground but he has won on both good to soft and soft and has a leading chance. The Last Samurai faces a stiff task with 11st 10lb and 12lb higher than last year. The soft ground turned against him on that occasion but he is a proven stayer and ran well to finish third in the Becher Chase. The handicapper may have his measure but he looks sure to run well again. Pleasant Company s problem is his lack of experience, having run just six times over fences. He has, though, probably been laid out for this having not run since winning a 3m 1f handicap chase at Punchestown in April. Ucello Conti finished sixth here last year and ran fourth in the Becher. He usually figures in most of his races but has not win since June, Saphir Du Rheu ran his best race for a long time when fifth in the Gold Cup and he gets in here 6lb well in. He has the ability to win the race and won around the Mildmay course here as a novice, but he may lack the strength of character to win such a demanding race. The Young Master came good last spring when he won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown but he fell two out when beaten in the Becher and has been reported to have a breathing problem. He does, though, have the ability to win this and is partnered by Sam Waley-Cohen, who has such a brilliant record over these fences. Vicente has the ground and trip in his favour, having won the Scottish National last spring off this mark of 146. He has not shown much in four runs this season but he comes right at this time of year and his rider Brian Hughes is enjoying a tremendous season. Highland Lodge would be a hugely popular winner for Lakeland trainer Jimmy Moffatt. The 11-year-old has been lightly raced since joining the yard, running just three times. He landed the Becher Chase here last season, then missed the cut for this race and ran instead in the Scottish National. He returned with a tremendous effort back in the Becher, just losing on the post when hanging off the rail close home. Although effective on good ground he would be better suited to softer conditions, while the trainer says the plan will be to make the running not an easy thing to do in the National. His stamina is also unproven, but backers are assured of a good run. Rogue Angel, winner of last year s Irish National and winner of the Kerry National, has plenty of experience n competitive handicap chases and he is trained by Mouse Morris, who sent out last year s winner. He finished a long way back in the Becher but ran better at Gowran Park. He is handily treated from his mark and 10st 8lb is an ideal weight. Softer ground would have suited him but he is one of the stronger outsiders. Stable-companion Thunder And Roses won the Irish National in 2015 and shaped nicely when chasing home Pleasant Colony at Fairyhouse in February. He has not won, though, since May Raz De Maree handles good ground and showed good form to run second to Native River in the Welsh National. He was eighth in this race three years ago but at the age of 12 history is against him.

10 Saint Are, second to Many Clouds in 2015, pulled up last year when the rain came against him. With Davy Russell a good booking and the going more suitable I envisage him running another well. Tenor Nivernais is officially 8lb well in following his runaway success at Ascot but he is one of the race s confirmed mud-lovers and things may happen too quickly for him here. Stable-companion Houblon Des Obeaux is one of the stoutest stayers in the races but he is also much better suited to give underfoot. Just A Par won well at Exeter last time and is now 4lb well in. He stays very well but didn t appear to enjoy it round here last season when finishing down the field. Lord Windermere is very well treated considering he won the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup but his recent form fails to inspire. He does, though, have more than a touch of class at his best and his form last season indicates that he retains a fair amount of ability. It would not be a massive shock to see him run well. Measureofmydreams was beaten just seven lengths by Minella Rocco and Native River in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last season but has not shone since moving to Noel Meade. He is not, though, the soundest jumper and the word heavy figures in the going descriptions of his five victories. Wonderful Charm is a decent outsider. Left with a near impossible task when second in the Cheltenham Foxhunters, he has the good ground and trip in his favour. He was, though, pulled up in this race last year and he is not well treated at the weights compared with his new mark. He will be the last runner over jumps for owner Robin Geffen, who will be focusing hereafter on the Flat. Of the others Shantou Flyer has been in good form for Rebecca Curtis and ran very well when second to Cue Card at Ascot. He handles good ground but aged seven has history against him. Perfect Candidate, another who handles good going, battled on gamely to win over three miles last time at Exeter. He has a sound chance. Roi Des Francs responded favourably to first-time blinkers last time at Down Royal but they need to work again. Wounded Warrior once promised much but has not been seen out since pulling up at Fairyhouse in February, He is, though, bred to stay and he is one of the better 66/1 chances. Drop Out Joe has not run since June, when he won over 3m 2f at Uttoxeter, but he is one of the few proven good ground performers in the field. Le Mercurey has some good form with top performers to his name namely Many Clouds here in December and Native River at Newbury but he s only seven and is unproven in a big field. Regal Encore has the talent to win on a going day, but they are few and far between. We saw the better side of him at Ascot in December but then last time at Cheltenham he didn t want to know. Double Shuffle is progressing nicely for Tom George and should stay but, at seven, he is also from an unfavoured age group. Ballynagour has pulled up on his last three starts but he is very capable at his best. O Faolains Boy won the RSA Chase three years ago before missing the following season. He has struggled to reproduce anything like his old form recently. Bishops Road unseated at the first in last year s Topham and would need testing ground to reproduce his best. Stellar Notion, who likes to be up there, was put forward by his trainer for this race after running second in a 2m 5f handicap at Leopardstown in January. He is a sound jumper, who acts on good ground and has a handy weight. His form when second to Tiger Roll at Limerick in October now reads well and at 66/1 he is a strong outsider. Pendra appeared not to stay here last year despite being bred to do so. He comes here fresh having run second on his return at Cheltenham last month. Cocktails At Dawn has the assistance of the talented Nico de Boinville but he has failed to complete in four of his last six races and fell in last year s Topham. Gas Line Boy has a stiff task at the weights but he stays very well and has a handy weight. He is another reasonable outsider.

11 Goodtoknow ran second to One For Arthur at Warwick but he needs mud to show his best. La Vaticane has twice got round over these fences but his form is moderate. Stable-companion Doctor Harper has loads of ability but may he s a delicate soul who may struggle with the hustle and bustle of this race. Bless The Wings is now established as a cross-country specialist and he s now 12, but the ground won t bother him and he is an assured stayer. Knock House was useful a couple of years ago but he s not shown much in two starts this season. Sambremont was pulled up last time while Viva Steve has struggled in his last two starts. Benbens was also pulled up last time and Lamb Or Cod was well behind in the Kim Muir. Cloudy Too is useful on his day but his best form has been in testing conditions. Conclusion There are a handful of long-priced outsiders with solid chances this year. Among them I like Gas Line Boy (66/1), Saint Are (40/1), Wonderful Charm (40/1) and especially Stellar Notion (50/1). I am expecting Vicente to return to form now that spring is here and with the good ground in his favour (25/1). Highland Lodge (25/1) and One For Arthur (14/1) have very sound claims but the former may struggle to make all and both would prefer softer ground. I am staying with One For Arthur in the hope that the going does not dry up too much. Highland Lodge will give his backers a good run for a long way but may not get home. Vicente and Stellar Notion are the others I like at long prices. Others To Note On Saturday I expect Golden Doyen to land a decent prize one day but the news for the opening race on Grand National day is for Duke Street (1.45). Dr Richard Newland likes to lay horses out for this meeting, and this five-year-old has shaped well with a view to a spring campaign. A victory on the Flat at Chelmsford in February put him right for Cheltenham, but he missed the cut and ran instead at Kempton, where he finished a creditable fourth to Brio Conti recording a very decent speed figure in the process. The trainer has always felt a step up in trip would suit the horse, a view backed up by the horse s pedigree, and off a low weight on the good ground he favours I am expecting a decent effort. I would be keen to give Politologue another chance following his fourth behind Yorkhill at Cheltenham were it not for the good ground (3.00). The six-year-old travelled well through the race until dropping away approaching the last, possibly finding the ground a shade too lively for him. A strong pace back at two miles around this flatter track may suit him. The favourite will be Charbel, who was giving Altior plenty to think about in the Arkle until toppling over two fences from home. If he comes here in the same form and enjoys an uncontested lead he could prove hard to catch. Brian Ellison thinks the world of Forest Bihan but he would have finished a long way behind Charbel at Cheltenham and was prone to clout the odd fences in his earlier races, as indeed he did at Cheltenham. He will, though, like this track and ground. Ordinary World, left third in the Arkle, would also have finished behind Charbel. Charbel is justifiable short at even-money to win this as I write on Wednesday. Politologue, who was my *** bet for Cheltenham, travels well enough to adjust to this shorter trip especially if there is a strong pace. Starchitect caught the eye when running on into fifth in the 2m 5f handicap chase at the Festival after a troubled run through the pack (3.40). Having proved himself on good ground over hurdles the conditions won t bother him but the step up to 3m 1f may be a concern given his Flat-bred

12 pedigree. He is, though, nicely treated on 143 but has an alternative entry in the Grade 1 novices chase on Friday. Emerging Force has apparently been put aside for this race while Jodie took a great liking to Calett Mad as a long-term prospect when she saw him at Cheltenham. O O Seven will find this easier than the RSA, where he was tailed off, while Potters Legend gets this trip well. Starchitect would have gone close to winning at Cheltenham with better fortune and from the same mark I want to stay with him. Caius Marcius, who has alternative entries on Friday at Aintree (1.40) and Newcastle on Saturday (4.30), is worth a look if he gets into the finale (6.15). He would have gone close two starts ago at Musselburgh but for unseating his rider three out and then found the soft ground against him at Market Rasen. Everything worked out for him next time at Wetherby and he can go close again from a mark of 124. He is one to stay with this spring. Aintree Update Line If you want to keep in touch with Marten s latest thoughts on Aintree ring him on: Selections given in the first minute. Updated at 11am (calls charged at 1.50 a minute at all times) May cost more from a mobile Non-Premium rate version available by joining our Telephone & Text Service. Please call the office on for details. Copyright in all Marten Julian s publications/services is strictly reserved by the publisher. No material therein may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without written permission from Marten Julian.