Marten Julian s CHELTENHAM BULLETIN BOOK 2015

Transcription

1 Marten Julian s CHELTENHAM BULLETIN BOOK 2015

2 Cheltenham BULLETIN BOOK 2015 by Marten Julian Marten Julian Highgate, Kendal, Cumbria, LA9 4ED

3 First published in Great Britain 2015 Copyright Marten Julian Author has asserted his moral rights Copyright in all Marten Julian s publications, telephone services and premium rate lines is strictly reserved by the publishers. No material therein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written permission from Marten Julian. Cover Design Steve Dixon Layout Steve Dixon Register for our free monthly newsletter Call Rebecca on or rebecca@martenjulian.com

4 Introduction Hi there, Thank you for buying the 2015 edition of the Cheltenham Bulletin Book. We are now in our 39th year just 12 months to go before our 40th anniversary. As always I have to remind you that the book goes to print eight days before the start of the meeting, so we are working without the benefit of five-day entries or a reliable long-term weather forecast. Consequently there is uncertainty about the running plans for a number of horses, with a few key names amongst them, and also the going. News and information will be coming through in the days leading up to the Festival. Those who have subscribed to the full Cheltenham Package will already be receiving Daily Communiques by and will have access to the Online Supplements each evening before the day s racing. You can hear my early preview of the meeting this Sunday evening on I will also be updating the line each evening through Cheltenham week, looking ahead to the next day, and then again in the morning when, as always, any selections will be given in the first minute of the message (calls are charged at 1.50 a minute at all times from a landline). I am greatly indebted to Rebecca, Steve, Jodie, Paul, Natasha, Hannah, Alex and Jonathan for everything they have done. This has proved yet another absorbing assignment. Let s hope that we find a few winners along the way.

5 Contents Day One 5 Day Two 28 Day Three 42 Day Four 54 The Star Bets 72 Index 73 latest news Selections given in the first minute Calls charged at 1.50 a minute at all times May cost more from a mobile free blogs & newsletters follow Marten on martenjulian

6 Day One Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle (Ext 2m) 1.30 Recent winning form is important here - 16 of the last 18 won last time out with 17 of the last 20 winning in the previous 45 days. The Irish have a good record in this race winning 13 of the last 23 renewals. Nicky Henderson is the trainer to watch - he has had nine top-four finishers in the last eight years. Avoid horses that have not run this year, with only one of the last 20 winners falling into this category. The results on the opening day of the 2015 Cheltenham Festival will have a huge bearing on the way the bookmakers bet later in the week. If Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power all win then we can expect the men with deep satchels to close ranks in an effort to recover losses. In my experience, on such occasions, not all the good things win. Something usually comes to the rescue of the bookmakers, although it is far from clear which of the four could be the most vulnerable. The longest priced of the Mullins favourites on the first day is Douvan, who is a best 7/4 for this traditional opener. Significantly, when owner Rich Ricci was asked which of his talented team of horses he was most looking forward to seeing run, he nominated this fiveyear-old ahead of his other more established performers. Douvan is a horse that shows exceptional ability in his work at home and from the little we have seen of him he is reproducing it on the track. Following a 12-lengths defeat of Sizing John, who next time won a Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown, he beat a strong field in a Grade 2 contest at Punchestown a race won in recent years by Festival scorers Mikael D Haguenet and Vautour. Apart from jumping a little to his left he put up a flawless display. Afterwards Willie Mullins could hardly contain his excitement, saying the horse does things very easily and that nothing ground, trip or tactics would ever bother him. 5

7 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Such is Ruby Walsh s style of riding that it can sometimes be hard to know how much his mount has in hand, but to the eyes Douvan s win at Punchestown could not have been easier. Apparently cantering turning for home, he moved up alongside on the bridle approaching the last to win hard held from a decent performer rated at the time on 136. When assessing the chance of a short-priced favourite for a big race I try to identify possible areas of vulnerability. In the case of Douvan there may be three. The first is that we have not yet seen what he will find off the bridle. Of course some will argue that may not be a factor, such will be his superiority, but it requires a horse of exceptional talent to win a Festival race in such a manner. The next is his form. Taking a line through the runner-up at Punchestown he ran to around 140, before allowing for the amount he had in hand. A line through the third suggests the same. His previous race earns him a mark in the low 150s, although the trainer of the runner-up there Sizing John says his horse was not at his best on that occasion. A mark in the low 140s would be lower than you would want from a short-priced favourite at this level. The third slight concern is that he is untried on anything but soft ground. By contrast we know a little more about L Ami Serge. The fiveyear-old was beaten on each of his six starts in France, although three of those occasions were in Listed class races. Since joining Nicky Henderson he has won each of his three starts, at Newbury in November and then a Grade 2 at Ascot and a Grade 1 at Sandown beating good horses in the process. On his debut he beat Kilcooley, now rated on 150, by six lengths. Then at Ascot he beat Killultagh Vic, subsequently third to Outlander, by seven lengths before last time beating Jolly s Cracked It, now rated on 140, by 14 lengths. L Ami Serge, whose official mark of 153 may underrate him, has shown a turn of foot in his races and, more important as far as Cheltenham is concerned, a tenacious attitude in the closing stages. Furthermore, although his form has been with cut in the ground he is by King s Theatre, whose progeny are predisposed to better going. The trainer has also pointed out that the horse may be more suited to racing left-handed. Jollyallan looks sure to run with credit for Harry Fry. The sixyear-old has been well handled by his trainer, winning his bumper easily by 15 lengths last season and this year winning novice events at Exeter, Newbury and Kempton before finding the vastly more 6

8 Day one experienced Garde La Victoire just too good for him in a listed hurdle at Sandown. He is a progressive and likeable horse but the concern is his jumping. He has clouted at least one flight in every race and the frenetic pace at which this contest is always run is not going to help in that respect. Shaneshill may join stable-companion Douvan in the line-up. The six-year-old ran on well up the hill to chase home Silver Concorde in last year s Weatherbys Bumper before reversing form with the winner the following month at Punchestown. He has run twice over hurdles this season, both over two and a half miles, winning at Fairyhouse and then second to No More Heroes at Navan. He can be keen so the drop to a strongly-run two miles may suit him. Alvisio Ville, third to Nichols Canyon at Leopardstown, may also run. Qewy showed a bright turn of foot after travelling very well to beat Cardinal Walter by six lengths at Newbury. The son of Street Cry is bred for better ground and had a touch of class on the Flat, performing well in Listed/Group class races and attaining a peak mark of 107. Seedling has improved this season, now rated on 149 from 130, but Silver Concorde has yet to reproduce his level of bumper form over hurdles. Given Dermot Weld s skill at preparing a horse for the big day, that may well happen. Cardinal Walter beat a weak field last time at Doncaster. He seems in good fettle at the moment. L Ami Serge can give Nicky Henderson a good start to the meeting. On my reading of the form he has achieved more than the favourite Douvan and, more essentially, has shown that he can dig deep when asked. Jollyallan will run well. latest news Selections given in the first minute Calls charged at 1.50 a minute at all times May cost more from a mobile 7

9 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2m) 2.05 Look to runners with previous course form - nine of the last 11 had either won or been placed at Cheltenham before. Top-rated horses have a good record in this race - seven of the last 14 winners were the top-rated or second top-rated over hurdles. Older horses have a poor record with just three of the last 23 winners older than seven. The last eight winners had either won or been placed over at least 2m 3f. Such has been the impression left by Un De Sceaux that he has rendered the Arkle Trophy a virtual non-event for betting purposes. Having said that, as with Douvan, the first step in any assessment of a short-priced favourite is to seek out any flaws in the favourite s credentials. Un De Sceaux has looked imperious in his last two races, notably on his most recent start at Leopardstown when he beat Clarcam by 15 lengths. The most impressive aspect of that performance was the manner in which he came away again at the finish after the runnerup got to within a couple of lengths of him three fences from home. The time before he had beaten Smashing by 12 lengths having fallen three fences out on his chasing debut at Thurles. Those thinking of stepping in to back Un De Sceaux at between 4/6 and as low as 1/2 - and I can t imagine there are many prepared to do so - need to reflect on a couple of things. The first is that he races very keenly. Nobody riding today settles a horse better than Ruby Walsh, but even he comes off second-best with Un De Sceaux. As I have previously stated, and reiterated in relation to the Gold Cup, few horses win races from the front at the Cheltenham Festival. Ideally I suspect Willie Mullins and his jockey would sooner the horse settled better, but in each of his 12 starts he has set off at a scorching pace. He has, though, won twice over an extended 2m 3f in heavy conditions at Auteuil, so there need be no qualms about him getting home on the grounds of stamina. The second concern is his lack of experience around an undulating track. The seven-year-old is very bold at his fences, occasionally 8

10 Day one taking off too soon, and he does have that fall on his record. These tricky fences, especially at the top of the hill, could find him out. The third, but unlikely, possibility is that a rival may try and take him on for the lead. I am not sure which horse it could be, but tactically that could make things more interesting. The rival that will be best suited to the strong pace is Vibrato Valtat, a progressive six-year-old that has been in the first three in all but one of his 19 starts. The grey has improved by an official margin of 10lb in his last two runs, winning the Grade 1 Henry VIII Stakes at Sandown and then Grade 2 contests at Kempton and Warwick. On his chase debut in November he beat Thomas Crapper by a length before running second to Dunraven Storm here, doing strong late work having been left out of his ground. Sam Twiston-Davies now rides with great confidence, and he will know that this horse will travel well for him and then deliver at the end of the race. He will not want the favourite to get too far clear, although that may be difficult, but Vibrato Valtat is going the right way and he has a very useful turn of foot. Vautour would have a leading chance if switched here from the JLT Novices Chase. This six-year-old made an excellent impression when beating Clarcam by eight lengths on his chasing debut at Navan before running way below form against the same horse on Boxing Day at Leopardstown. He looked more like his old self next time out. I rated Josses Hill a leading candidate for this race in the autumn but he has not looked happy since switched to chasing. Remarkably his record still reads like that of a consistent horse he has been in the first two in each of his nine starts but he has looked ponderous and hesitant over his fences and that hardly bodes well for an Arkle, where slick jumping and alacrity count for so much. He has run to marks in the low 140s on his last two starts, about 10lb below his level over hurdles, but to his credit he still shows a good attitude at the finish. The horse sustained a splint injury last summer, so perhaps the memory of that is preventing him using from using himself. Josses Hill will probably be doing his best work late, but the concern is the ground he may lose at the fences. Clarcam is consistent but has 15 lengths to find with Un De Sceaux. There is no logical reason why he should reverse that form. Three Kingdoms just got the better of Solar Impulse in a thrilling duel for 9

11 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 the Lightning Novices Chase at Doncaster. A month earlier he found Vibrato Valtat half a length too good for him, having won his first two starts at Leicester and Newcastle. He is useful but may be better suited to Aintree. Court Minstrel comes to his best in the spring but finished 32 lengths behind Vibrato Valtat at Sandown. Robert Brookhouse and David Pipe teamed up to land what beforehand seemed an unlikely victory in this race last year with Western Warhorse. This time they are represented by Sail By the Sea, who beat a low-grade field very easily at Chepstow. He lacks experience and was the best part of 20lb inferior to the best of these as a hurdler. Sgt Reckless has had an unorthodox preparation for the race, having won a 1m 4f maiden on the Flat at Lingfield in January, but he warrants a special mention. Before that he finished 43 lengths behind Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle having won his sole start over fences at Uttoxeter in October. Mick Channon s eight-year-old has always shown exceptional ability at home he apparently works like a Group horse and it is not often you see a horse make up as much ground in a Supreme Hurdle as he did when fourth to Vautour last year. He might have won that race had he been able to lay closer to the pace. The horse has an alternative entry for the County Hurdle, which may make more sense, but whatever the outcome Sgt Reckless is a horse to keep on your side, whether under Rules or on the Flat. The other long-priced outsiders to consider are God s Own and Grumeti. The former is rated 160 over fences just 2lb behind Vibrato Valtat and beat Balder Succes by five lengths at Exeter in November. He will be suited by the likely good ground. Grumeti also has close ties to Vibrato Valtat but he ran a shocker last time at Sandown. Odds on about a horse that has fallen once and never been to Cheltenham is not my idea of a bet. Having said that a clear round could see Un De Sceaux run out an unchallenged winner. Of the others God s Own is overpriced at 40/1 for a horse rated just 2lb behind the second favourite. Sgt Reckless has enormous potential but lacks experience. Josses Hill will be plugging on at the finish while Vibrato Valtat will be produced late. I would be keen on Vautour if he were to switch here but in his absence keep an eye on God s Own and Vibrato Valtat. 10

12 Day one Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase (3m 1f) 2.40 Look to the ratings for clues as 14 of the last 15 winners were officially rated no higher than of the last 14 winners started in the first four of the betting. Older horses should be avoided only two horses 11 and over have placed since 1997 and four of the last 11 winners were novices. Only one favourite has won in the last 18 years. Pendra, who is also entered for the Kim Muir, has the look of a horse that has been kept fresh for this meeting. That was probably the case last year, when he ran third to Present View, and this season his sole start was when fourth to No Buts at Newbury in November. With just 11 outings to his name, Pendra has been lightly raced through his career but he is bred to stay he ran well enough when finishing mid-division in the 3m 5f Irish Grand National and his dam is by Over The River, a strong influence for stamina. Pendra was a decent hurdler in his time and it may well be that Charlie Longsdon has kept him back to protect his mark of 139. He runs well fresh. Mendip Express has this as his only entry at the Festival. Harry Fry s nine-year-old ran a blinder to finish three-quarters of a length second to Oscar Time in the Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree, over 3m 2f, and will have come on from his recent spin over hurdles at Bangor. There is better to come from this lightly-raced son of King s Theatre, especially on good ground. Evan Williams may have a say here with Barakilla and Buywise. Barakilla has won just one of his five starts over fences, but he ran well at Sandown and then when second in a competitive field here in December. He has never raced over this trip but is bred to suit it and he can come here fresh. He does, though, have an alternative entry on Thursday. Buywise has the more obvious claims. The winner of four of his seven starts over fences, he landed a hat-trick last season before finishing a fair fifth to Present View in the extended 2m 4f novices handicap chase at this meeting. He returned to winning form over a similar trip on his next start in April, beating Astracad by nine lengths. This season he made a winning return over two miles at Ludlow before running fifth to Caid Du Berlais here in the Paddy Power in November. He won again over hurdles on his latest start 11

13 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 at Ffos Las, a race his trainer was using as a pipe-opener for this meeting. Buywise has three other options during the week, including over hurdles from a mark 8lb below his chase rating. Carole s Destrier is a favourite of mine but he faces a stiff task from an all-time high mark of 152. He has the RSA Chase as an alternative target but that looks a tough renewal this year and this may be easier. He was pulled up at Chepstow in December but then ran better here in January before beating Clondaw Knight at Ascot in February. A 10lb rise for that looks harsh, but the son of Kayf Tara is very game. His trainer says there may be a better race for him at Wetherby on 17 March. Tony Martin is limbering up for the meeting and he has two likely sorts here with Gallant Oscar and Living Next Door. Gallant Oscar has switched between hurdling and chasing, winning and finishing second twice in handicap hurdles this season from marks of 104, 115 and 121 and then returning to fences in the Thyestes Chase, finishing fourth to Djakadam off 133. He is not always the most fluent of jumpers, but with just six runs over fences to his name there may be more to come from him. Living Next Door has been raised 12lb for beating Foxrock at Leopardstown over Christmas in the Paddy Power Chase. That form now reads even better, with the runner-up raised from 142 to 164 after winning next time and then running Carlingford Lough to threequarters of a length in the Hennessy Gold Cup. He ran in the National Hunt Chase last season, not disgraced in fifth, but a drop of rain might help him out. Ned Stark, The Druids Nephew and Sausolito Sunrise are just three of the many others to come in for consideration. Black Thunder may be a little high in the weights. Tony Martin is always to be feared in races of this type, so his selected runner from Gallant Oscar and Living Next Door must command respect, but the ones I like at this early stage are Pendra, Mendip Express and Buywise. Of the three I will be keeping close tabs on Pendra. 12

14 Day one Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Ext 2m) 3.20 Previous Festival form is a good clue here 20 of the last 30 winners finished in the first four at the previous season s Festival. Five-yearolds should be avoided only one has won (from 92 runners) since Nine of the last 10 winners had run within 51 days of the race, something that does not apply to Faugheen. Looking back over the career of Faugheen, the bookmakers have been keen to keep him on their side ever since he first set foot on the racecourse. In eight runs under Rules he has never started longer than 6/4, and on all but two of those occasions he has been an oddson chance. News of his prowess came specifically to my notice before he ran, to such extent that I backed him at 20/1 to win the 2012 Cheltenham Festival Bumper, a race that he was forced to miss. His first appearance under Rules came two months later in a bumper at Punchestown, and he duly vindicated the judgement of those who rated him by beating Josses Hill by 22 lengths, with a handful of other performers that have since proved useful strewn out behind. Faugheen is now unbeaten in eight starts, plus one point-to-point, but only two of those hurdle successes have been over two miles. The first was when he beat Valseur Lido by 12 lengths at Punchestown in April and the second was last time out, when he beat Purple Bay by eight lengths at Kempton over Christmas. The fact that most of his form is over distances ranging from two and a half to three miles should not discourage his Champion Hurdle backers given the record of winners over trips beyond two miles in the race. The key point to remember about the Champion Hurdle is that the race is always run at a strong pace and so it is imperative that your horse has the stamina to get home. As with the Gold Cup, the race s history shows that this invariably has a greater bearing on the outcome than an ability to quicken. Although Faugheen has been ridden prominently on occasions it is very hard to make the running in a race at the Festival, so Ruby Walsh may prefer to settle just off the pace and come with a run from the home turn. That will not concern him, as Faugheen has displayed an ability to change gear. 13

15 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Faugheen is now rated on 168 and I retain my belief that he is probably quite special. However at the price, especially in a race of this calibre, you want everything to be right and the one area of concern is his jumping. In each of his races he has got close to at least one hurdle, but having said that it does not seem to stop him. That was the case when he got close to the third last before winning last season s Neptune Novices Hurdle. It is a scary thought for the opposition that Mullins believes he can improve the horse still more and, with an official rating just 1lb superior to The New One, that may well have to be the case. I have been most impressed with The New One this season. I saw the horse at close quarters at Haydock in November, where I formed the impression he had grown into a stronger individual than last year. Also, and this had been a concern last season, Sam Twiston-Davies is riding him with much more confidence. On his first three runs this season he has been content to track the leaders and deliver his mount with a well-timed run approaching the last. On his most recent outing in the Haydock mud, after jumping right, the horse had to work harder. Unlike Faugheen, The New One has come up against the best, notably here last year when he ran third to Jezki in the Champion Hurdle. Much has been written about that race. Even now, looking back at the race, it is difficult to say for certain if The New One should have won. The incident in question happened at the third flight of hurdles, when the horse lost what looked about five lengths and considerable momentum when hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Connor. Twiston-Davies was in no rush, rightly in my view, to try to recover the lost ground but then at the fourth last the pace quickened, apparently catching the rider unawares, with the result that The New One dropped a couple more lengths adrift of the leaders. This was, in my view, the critical point of the race. The rider then appeared to take on the air of someone resigned to defeat, sitting motionless before becoming more animated as the horse began to run on again down the hill. Still six lengths adrift of the leaders at the last, he took a stride or two to pick up before powering home to finish two and threequarter lengths behind the winner. Pulling up after the line, The New One had the look of a horse with more to give. 14

16 Day one The New One lost more ground as a result of the interference than the margin by which he was beaten. It was, though, at the point when he lost his place that his chance of winning was most significantly compromised. The following month The New One tackled a further half mile and got up close home to pip Rock On Ruby in the Aintree Hurdle, perhaps finding the race more of a challenge than expected at the end of a busy season. This season The New One, and his jockey, have looked in greater harmony. A very easy victory at Kempton was followed by a defeat of the decent Zandy Man at Haydock. It was, though, next time at Cheltenham that we saw most vividly the rider s new-found confidence. Waiting upsides the leader as they turned for home, with main rival Vaniteux and Barry Geraghty poised to challenge, he quickened up in a few strides after the last to win going away by four and a half lengths. The turn of foot shown by the horse was impressive but, of more significance, was the fact that Twiston-Davies had the belief that his mount would find what was required. Twelve months earlier I suspect that would not have been the case. It was a little similar, but in very different circumstances, a month later at Haydock. The heavy ground was never going to suit him at odds of 1/6 I took the view he was a horse to lay and indeed he had to work very hard to pass Bertimont, a useful horse but rated 18lb inferior, from the last. Testing ground does not suit The New One, but such conditions should not prevail on Champion Hurdle day. Of more concern is that both here and on other occasions he has shown a tendency to jump right. Of further concern is that this was seen at its most extreme on his latest start. Perhaps it was due to seeing too much daylight in a small field, in which case it may be less of an issue in a Champion Hurdle. There is not a lot of collateral form between Faugheen and The New One to call upon. Hint Of Mint, beaten two and a quarter lengths in receipt of 8lb by The New One at Kempton, later finished over 13 lengths behind Faugheen at Ascot, receiving 4lb. That tenuous link would give Faugheen the edge by 7lb. 15

17 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Faugheen s short price is based more on reputation than hardcore form. Having said that, he visually impresses and leaves the impression he has not yet been fully stretched. Tactically I would not expect Ruby Walsh, assuming he opts for Faugheen over Hurricane Fly, to allow himself to present a target for The New One. He will, though, be aware that The New One has found himself outpaced in the past and so he may try and get first run on the turn for home. Jezki will appeal to many as the each-way value at around 6/1. He has had the misfortune to come up against Hurricane Fly three times this season, on his debut at Punchestown and then twice at Leopardstown. He has not left the impression that he has improved since last season, but Jessica Harrington has stressed time and again that his season has been focused specifically on winning a second Champion Hurdle. Formerly quite keen and hard to settle notably in this race last year - Jezki is more tractable these days and I don t expect that to be a problem here. Last season he had almost three lengths in hand of The New One, but I now rate that horse the better of the two. Jezki may also have been helped in last year s race by the first-time application of the hood, something that may not be as effective now that he is used to it. I can see the logic of fancying Jezki at the price as he will appreciate what is likely to prove better ground than he s had in Ireland and he also appears to peak in the spring. The passing of the years should not count against Hurricane Fly because horses of his age have won and run well in the Champion Hurdle before. It does, though, say something for the class of this year s race that this winner of 26 races 22 at Grade 1 level and officially top-rated horse in the race currently stands at 8/1 fourth best in the market. One of the keys to this remarkable horse is the ground the softer it is the better it suits him. The other is that he loves a tight flat track. Ten visits to Leopardstown have resulted in 10 victories, but he has won two Champion Hurdles and it would be entirely wrong to suggest he is not suited to Cheltenham. Last season he was beaten five lengths by Jezki in the Champion Hurdle but this season he has beaten him by between half a length and last time seven and a half lengths. That represents a range of about a stone between the two. Ruby Walsh has not, at the time of writing, announced whether he will ride Faugheen or Hurricane Fly. It would certainly lead to serious 16

18 Day one unrest in the market if he rejected the favourite, but if the heavens were to open then the decision might not be as inevitable as some may think. It is inconceivable that Hurricane Fly will run a bad race. He has strung together another three Grade 1 races this season and he is the top-rated horse in the race on a mark of 169, 2lb ahead of The New One and 1lb ahead of Faugheen. Arctic Fire has taken the fancy of a few judges. The six-year-old was a close second in last season s County Hurdle from a mark of 141 and is now rated 21lb higher, on 162, having put in three good runs in Grade 1 company. Most of that improvement has been revealed in his two latest runs behind Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown where, on both occasions, he was keeping on well at the finish. In the Irish Champion Hurdle he was closing steadily on the winner from the last, perhaps indicating that the stiffer finish at Cheltenham will play to his strengths. The time before he had finished even closer to the winner. It is to his credit that those fine efforts have been on testing ground because Arctic Fire is definitely better suited to good going. His form puts him within 2/3lb of Hurricane Fly and Jezki and Willie Mullins understandably suggests there is more to come from him. With the ground and stiffer track in his favour, he may well be capable of closing the gap. At 16/1 he represents fair each-way value. Irving is not certain to run. He returned to winning ways when quickening up smartly to win the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle but then pulled up with a foot infection in the Christmas Hurdle before running better when second to Blue Heron in the Kingwell Hurdle. Irving was apparently coughing after last year s disappointing run in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, but he strikes me as the sort of horse that will be best suited to a flat track. It would be a surprise to see him win. Vaniteux, a good third in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, was raised 7lb from 147 to 154 after carrying 11st 12lb into second behind Garde La Victoire in the Greatwood Hurdle. He was, though, soundly beaten by The New One in receipt of 8lb next time before running second to Rock On Ruby stepped up to an extended 2m 4f at Cheltenham in January. On strict lines of form he faces a stiff task. Kitten Rock has crept into contention from left field. Beaten from a mark of 137 when seen last May, he has returned this season the winner of all his four starts, rising 16lb to a mark of 153. It could be dangerous to underestimate this five-year-old because he is very hard to assess in relation to the established contenders. He has won his races in Ireland from behind and also from a handier position. Having 17

19 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 won over 2m 3f at Naas in January the stiff two miles at Cheltenham should not bother him. Edward O Grady is a master at bringing a talented horse along and it will be interesting to see if he encourages owner JP McManus, who also has Jezki, to run the horse. Purple Bay has eight lengths to find with Faugheen from the Christmas Hurdle. He may prefer a sharper track. Annie Power seems set to run in the Mares Hurdle. I would be very surprised to see her switched here for her belated seasonal debut. Un De Sceaux is also quoted in the betting but his sights are firmly set on the Arkle Trophy. Bertimont is held by The New One but the better ground at Cheltenham will suit him better than the conditions at Haydock. His trainer Dan Skelton believes there are better things to come from the five-year-old. Finally, don t dismiss the chance at very long odds of Garde La Victoire. On figures he is within a stone of the principals and he runs well at Cheltenham, on his most recent visit there beating Vaniteux by a length and a quarter in the Greatwood Hurdle. He was then beaten twice at Ascot before putting his greater experience to good use to nudge out Jollyallan in a Listed race at Sandown. Afterwards Philip Hobbs said the plan would be the County Hurdle or, if it stayed dry, the Coral Cup. My preference would be the Champion Hurdle, as he is a very tough horse with a will to win. I should really stay loyal to Faugheen having advised him in the Dark Horses Annual, but I thought he represented poor value at 5/1 back then and at current odds of 5/4 or thereabouts with the bookmakers he makes even less appeal. Furthermore, on official figures there is little between the top four, with Hurricane Fly top on 169, followed on 168 by Faugheen and Jezki with The New One next on 167. Faugheen may have the potential to be superior to his mark, but in a race of this calibre is that something you are prepared to take even-money about? Hurricane Fly s price of 8/1 is bordering on the insulting for a horse that has won two Champion Hurdles and 22 Grade 1 races. Any softening of the ground will be in his favour. I will be surprised if Jezki proves good enough. He needs to be better than he was last year to win and the evidence suggests he has, if anything, regressed. Kitten Rock could be anything he is very hard to assess but Arctic Fire, on good ground, would be my best outsider at 16/1. Of the others I have time for Garde La Victoire but he is not a certain runner. I wish the best of luck to those who stepped in to back Faugheen in the autumn. However, for those who have not yet got involved, I like Arctic Fire to make the frame. The New One is overpriced at 3/1. 18

20 Day one OLBG Mares Hurdle (2m 4f) 4.00 A good race for Irish-trained mares, thanks to the dominance of Quevega! Front runners seem to struggle in this race. Annie Power seems to be on track to make a belated return to action in this Grade 1 contest. Willie Mullins proved in his brilliant handling of Quevega that he can prepare a horse at home to win at the Festival, and on all form this winner of all but one of her dozen starts will be hard to beat if appearing here at her best. Her one defeat came at this meeting last year, when she was beaten by More Of That on her first attempt at three miles in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. The debate over whether she stayed the trip still continues. My view, as is so often the case, is that she did stay the three miles there were proven performers behind her but not as well as the winner. That is now academic anyway, because she has twice won over this shorter trip. The main concern for her backers is that she needs to settle. She has a tendency to race keenly anyway, and that may prove even more of an issue if she comes here fresh after a long absence. As with Un De Sceaux earlier, and Coneygree later in the week, it is unusual to see a horse that races keenly win at the Festival. The option for Ruby Walsh is to allow her to make the running, as she won from the front at Doncaster and Punchestown last season. Glens Melody, a stable-companion of Annie Power, ran a blinder to get within three-quarters of a length of Quevega last season. She has proved a consistent performer in the top mares events and doesn t know how to run a bad race. Soft ground suits her and she deserves to win a big one. I have plenty of time for Carole s Spirit, who has finished in the first three in all but one of her 11 starts. She returned this season with a comfortable victory in a Listed race over an extended three miles at Kempton, stealing what became a race-winning advantage at the start, before running the very progressive Bitofapuzzle to half a length 19

21 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 in a 3m Grade 2 at Ascot. Carole s Spirit is now rated 19lb higher than she was last season, improvement that has come over three miles. She is, though, a lovely mare with a tremendous will to win. The stiff track will offset the drop in trip and she could make things tricky for Annie Power if Ruby Walsh decides to try and dictate things from the front. Polly Peachum returned this season with a three-lengths defeat of Blue Buttons at Wincanton before pulling up in an extended 3m Listed contest at Kempton. She has been kept fresh since and is a game performer when on song. The Pirate s Queen did well to beat Bitofapuzzle last time at Haydock because connections said the heavy ground that day would not have suited her. She is steadily progressing but has a few pounds to find. Stable-companion L Unique is useful on her day but held by Polly Peachum and Carole s Spirit. Of the others The Govaness is worth keeping an eye on. Fergal O Brien s six-year-old has been brought along quietly and is bred to relish the step up in trip. She has run well on each of her three visits to Cheltenham. Annie Power faces a stiffer task than the betting would suggest. Carole s Spirit s proven stamina and admirable attitude should see her play a part. Polly Peachum and Glens Melody are also contenders. Toby Balding National Hunt Chase (4m) 4.40 Previous form is a good starting point - 10 of the last 13 winners were first or second last time out. A good race for favourite backers winning three of the last five, but not so good for Paul Nicholls with no winners from 15 representatives.ning three of the last five, but not so good for Paul Nicholls with no winners from 15 representatives. The quality of the National Hunt Chase has gradually improved in recent years and was duly promoted to a Listed contest last year, when the race was named after the late Terry Biddlecombe. Formerly the day two opener of the Cheltenham Festival, this four mile stamina-sapping marathon is now the penultimate race on the first day. 20

22 Day one With the race limited to amateur riders and first-season chasers jockeyship counts for a great deal. With most of the runners heading into the unknown with regard to the trip and, with exception of a few, some unfamiliar with their pilot it is a race that is important to look for a sound jumper with a stamina-laden pedigree. Owner Gigginstown House Stud could hold the key to the contest because, at the time of writing, they have three of the top four horses in the betting. The Willie Mullins-trained Don Poli has a touch of class and is the current clear market leader but he has the RSA Chase, for which he is also the favourite, as an alternative. Six-year-olds do not have a good record in this race, with only one winner that age or under since However, the gelding has already enjoyed success at the Cheltenham Festival when displaying a gritty attitude to lift the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Novices Hurdle last year. He then signed off his hurdling campaign with a narrow-margin defeat by dual-grade 1 hurdler Beat That at the Punchestown Festival, when tackling the highest level for the first time. Don Poli made his chasing debut over 2m4f at Gowran Park in November where he jumped soundly and stayed on stoutly to win by two and a half lengths from Wounded Warrior. After the race Mullins immediately nominated this race as a likely target, stating that staying is this horse s forte. Don Poli was seen to best affect when landing the hotly-contested Grade 1 Topaz Novice Chase in determined style at Leopardstown at the end of December. A slightly slower jump at the last allowed subsequent Grade 1 winner Apache Stronghold to poke his head in front but this son of Poliglote was not going down without a fight. Regaining the lead on the run-in, he powered away at the finish to win by three lengths. Mullins son Patrick will be waiting in the wings to get the leg up on Don Poli in this race and he will know the horse well. Whichever race Don Poli finds himself in he is not to be taken lightly. He has the pace to win over three miles and the stamina to get further. He is also blessed with the natural ability to jump. Willie Mullins rates him highly, alluding to him as a potential Gold Cup horse next season. This race looks tailor-made for Very Wood and he could prove to be Gigginstown s favoured choice. Noel Meade s six-year-old also has the age statistics to overcome but like Don Poli he too boasts course form. A point-to-point winner back in March 2013, the son of Martaline won a bumper at Punchestown in April 2013 on his racecourse debut. He then won a maiden hurdle at Galway in October the same year before 21

23 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 running with credit in three Graded events later that season at Navan, Fairyhouse and Naas, behind the likes of Briar Hill and The Tullow Tank. The step up to three miles for the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Festival was sure to play into the strengths of Very Wood and so it proved. The six-year-old, who was sporting first-time cheekpieces, was held up for much of the contest before being produced to challenge at the final flight. Digging into his reserves he powered on resolutely up the hill to beat a floundering Deputy Dan by a little over four lengths. He then signed off the season at Punchestown with a fairly uninspiring run behind Beat That. After a successful chase debut at Galway in October, where he won with a little more in hand than the winning margin of one and a half lengths suggests, Very Wood s Cheltenham preparation wheels began to well and truly fall off. He failed to finish on his next two starts, first at Punchestown in November, when his jumping went west and Bryan Cooper pulled him up, and secondly when failing to react favourably to first-time blinkers. Given time to refresh and with cheek-pieces reapplied he returned to winning ways in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan in February. His jumping was still not foot-perfect but he stayed on powerfully to justify Bryan Cooper s choice to ride him over the other Gigginstown runner Thunder And Roses. While it would seem Very Wood has developed a few quirks he still retains all his ability. It would also be fair to say better ground may benefit him, although he does act well on the softer Irish soil. Very Wood s fluency over the larger obstacles may come under scrutiny but the six-year-old will have a more than capable jockey in the plate, with Nina Carberry likely to take the ride. Noel Meade could also saddle the enormous but talented Wounded Warrior. The son of Shantou has a similar profile to his stablecompanion Very Wood. He won his point-to-point in March 2013 and then landed a bumper at the second time of asking at Navan in December. He then made a winning debut in a maiden hurdle in January 2014 before feeling the pinch in a Grade 2 later that month, finishing a staying on-fourth behind Sure Reef. The six-year-old signed off his hurdling career with a well-beaten fourth on his first attempt at three miles in a valuable handicap at Fairyhouse, before falling at the sixth flight at the Punchestown Festival in April. It is fair to say Wounded Warrior was unlucky to bump into two top-drawer novices on his first two chasing starts. Firstly he 22

24 Day one found Shanahan s Turn just over three lengths too good for him at Punchestown in October and then Don Poli outclassed him at Gowran in November. It was at Navan in December where he was able to stamp his authority on the field. Racing more towards the head of proceedings, he relished the challenge and routed his opposition to win by a widening six and a half lengths. A combination of extreme conditions and an inadequate trip were to blame for his lacklustre performance in the Grade 2 Novice Chase at Limerick on Boxing Day a defeat that was quickly forgotten next time out when he outstayed his rivals at Naas over a more suitable three miles. It is hard to assess Wounded Warrior s performances with any degree of accuracy. To the eye he looks a fairly lazy horse and he may not necessarily improve for a step up in trip. Having said that, for a horse of his stature he is incredibly agile at his fences and can gain several lengths in the air at crucial stages. Tactics will be interesting come the day. He appears to be a horse that is more adept to racing up with the pace perhaps because he lacks gears - even though he won a bumper in his early days. This could be advantageous as he will avoid the majority of thrills and spills that unsurprisingly arise in a race of this nature. The hat-trick seeking Sego Success has to be high on any shortlist given his profile and the stable s track record in this race in recent years. Alan King s seven-year-old is fairly lightly raced for his age, with only nine career starts to his name including two point-to-points. It would be fair to say he has taken a little time to truly hint at what he is capable of. Sego Success had a mixed start to his racing career. He was brought down on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon in November 2013, before going on to win a 3m novices hurdle at Southwell in decisive fashion a month later. The bay then appeared to not get home in the 3m Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices Trial at Haydock in February a race which the stable won the year before with Two Rockers. He then fell on his final hurdle race at Exeter in April when attempting to mount a challenge at the penultimate flight but was short of room and came to grief. Since going chasing the son of Beneficial has won two of his three starts, both in the manner of a horse who relishes a trip. After beating subsequent Listed handicap chase winner If In Doubt at Wetherby, Sego Success followed up in good style at Warwick in November, following in the footsteps of Midnight Prayer and Godsmejudge who 23

25 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 won the Warwick race before winning and finishing third respectively in the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Festival. Although the trip is an unknown for Sego Success, Tom Cannon who rode the horse to victory at Warwick said stamina is the horse s forte. Alan King then wasted no time in nominating this race as his next target. Sego Success will go into the race rated 143, 4lb higher than last year s winner Midnight Prayer and, Godsmejudge who were both rated 139. Sego Success ticks a lot of the right boxes. He s a good jumper, his pedigree is packed with stamina, he has age on his side and his trainer knows a thing or two about winning the race. Another thing that could be in the gelding s favour is the potential for better ground. Although he has won on soft ground, he has seemed to appreciate a better surface. He could be a cracking each-way bet at odds of around 8/1. Cogry could be one to keep an eye on. The Nigel Twiston-Davistrained gelding steadily improved this season and warrants close inspection. Twice a winner over hurdles, he then finished a wellbeaten ninth in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle behind Very Wood, before falling at the third from home when weakening in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree. The six-year-old has done well to build on what was not an ideal start to his chase career when he fell at Uttoxeter in December. He has since put together three very smart performances, including one placed effort at Haydock over an inadequate trip and two victories over a more appropriate distance. The latest of those was at Warwick where he stayed on dourly in a 3m 2f novices chase to repel a resurgent Doing Fine on the run to the line, having been racing from a long way from home. Cogry s pedigree is that of a stayer, but he does not look an overly big horse and may find the task of jumping 26 fences at a brisk pace a bit of a challenge. Nigel Twiston-Davies won this race with the six-yearold Tricky Trickster back in The Job Is Right has to regain his early season form if he is to figure at the finish. Michael Hourigan s gelding finished a close second to Very Wood in October and was only beaten three and a half lengths in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown. He then kept on well to beat a four-runner field at Punchestown. After unseating at Gowran in a handicap won by Djakadam in January, The Job Is Right reverted to hurdles and was soundly beaten by Dedigout in a Grade 2 at Navan. The odds do appear to be stacked against the horse. 24

26 Day one Willie Mullins could run Perfect Gentleman. After winning at Tipperary in October Mullins said the horse wants three miles on good ground and mentioned this race as a possible target, although at 10 years of age he is not getting any younger. He will be a good each-way price for punters but his pedigree does not lead me to believe he will relish the demands of this endurance test. Paul Nicholls does not have a good record in this race, with just two placed efforts from 15 starters, but at around odds of 25/1 Vilvaldi Collonges could prove to be a lively outsider. With only one victory to his name it would be easy to overlook the son of Dom Alco, but like most of the sire s progeny they excel at marathon trips. The sixyear-old is one of the most inexperienced in the field and has come up against a top novice on both his chase starts this season. A onelength beating behind Kings Palace last time out flatters him, but he jumped with accuracy and stuck to the task well. Paul Nicholls is likely to call upon a good amateur jockey and it would be of no surprise to see Vivaldi Collonges outrun his odds. Doing Fine could look massively over-priced at 50/1 for a trainer who won this race in 2013 with Teaforthree. Rebecca Curtis gelding was seen to best effect when finishing second to Cogry at Warwick in February. Both horses had been racing a long way from home, but he saw out the trip extremely well. The first-time cheek-pieces that day seemed to help and the step up to four miles could also be a plus his dam stayed four miles. This is a difficult race to assess given the uncertainly of the runners at the head of the market. Don Poli cannot be dismissed lightly given his rock-solid Group 1 form, but for a relatively inexperienced horse odds of 3/1 do not offer punters much value. Of the two Noel Meade-trained geldings I would favour Very Wood. He has winning course form and this race looks tailor-made for him but his jumping could let him down. The horse I am siding with is Sego Success. Alan King who trained Midnight Prayer to victory 12 months ago has brought Sego Success along in a similar fashion. Whilst he does not appear the most flashy horse in the line-up, he has taken everything in his stride and looks open to any amount of improvement. The step up to four miles is an unknown quantity for the gelding, but on paper his pedigree says he should stay. Of the outsiders keep a close eye on Vivaldi Collonges. If the penny drops for this inexperienced individual he could outrun his odds and make the frame (Jodie Standing). 25

27 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices Handicap Chase (Ext 2m 4f) 5.15 Another race where previous form is important eight of the last 10 winners were in the first two last time out (five of the last six won last time out). I was very keen on Present View when he won this last year but there is nothing as strong as that this time around. Tony Martin s Noble Emperor lacks experience, with just six lifetime starts, but he ran second to Very Wood in a Grade 2 over three miles at Navan having won a weak contest by 22 lengths the time before. This would be just his fifth race over fences but he stays further and is likely to progress beyond his mark of 142. Horizontal Speed is very consistent. First or second in 12 of his 15 starts, he is currently rated 3lb below his hurdle mark with the promise of more to come over fences. His last two starts have confirmed that he is improving, running Saphir De Rheu to 11 lengths at Exeter in December and then beating Red Devil Boys by 15 lengths at Wetherby. The slight concern is that he jumped a little to his right at Wetherby. Gary Moore may let the lightly-raced Traffic Fuide take his chance. The five-year-old has shaped well in four starts over fences, winning at Southwell and then last time beating Seventh Sky at Plumpton. This is a step up for him, but he is a horse with a promising future. Little Jon will win a decent staying chase at some point of his career, but his jumping has lacked fluency and he needs to learn to settle. His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies says he is well handicapped. Blood Cotil is nicely treated on 140. He met some useful horses as a hurdler and hinted that he may be capable of matching that level of form over fences when winning easily last time at Naas. Nick Gifford has Generous Ransom in great fettle. The seven-year-old, who is also in on Thursday, would have won here more easily last time out but for a mistake at the last. He is progressive but needs to improve his jumping. 26

28 Day one Paul Nicholls has saved Keltus for this race. A useful performer over hurdles he ran fourth to Hawk High in last year s Fred Winter Hurdle from a mark of 128 he ran second to Court Minstrel on his chasing debut in September and was second to Royal Regatta at Newbury in November. The trainer has not said much about this fiveyear-old but I have reason to believe that we have not yet seen the best of him. Good ground suits him particularly well. The concern is the trip. Knock House attacked the fences with great zest on his chasing debut at Fakenham in October before being outclassed behind Kings Palace at Cheltenham. He ran a good race last time at Kempton and is a useful prospect with potential. Thomas Crapper, by contrast, has had plenty of experience, with 24 starts to his name. He has yet to win over fences but has run well against the likes of Court Minstrel, Vibrato Valtat and Irish Saint. He has run well here over hurdles and looks sure to be staying on strongly at the finish. The three I like are Keltus, Noble Emperor and Horizontal Speed. Of these, Keltus and Horizontal Speed make the most appeal. If you would like to keep in touch with Marten s thoughts on a regular basis then read his free-to-view journal at: or ring him on: Selections given in the first minute (calls charged at 1.50 a minute at all times - may cost more from a martenjulian 27

29 Day Two Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle (2m 5f) 1.30 A good race for the Irish contingent they have won five of the last nine runnings. Willie Mullins has a good record in this race, having saddled three winners and had five placed horses in the last ten years. 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Pattern race over hurdles. All but one of the last 16 winners had won over at least 2m 4f. Willie Mullins, who has around half-a-dozen of the top 10 in the betting, had yet to commit to firm running plans at the time of writing. Leaving his horses aside for the moment, the best of the home team on form is Parlour Games. An experienced horse on the Flat for Godolphin, attaining a mark in the high 90s at his peak, he has won four of his seven starts over hurdles including a defeat of the useful Blaklion in a Grade 2 contest sponsored by Neptune Investment here in November. In the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury he beat Vyta Du Roc by a neck, with Blaklion a length and a quarter back in third. Parlour Games is much improved from the horse that was beaten at odds of 1/5 at Stratford back in June. He found an instant change of gear after the last to put distance between himself and Blaklion here in December. That turn of foot was less apparent at Newbury, but he was still able to travel smoothly into the race before staying on bravely from the last. The prospect of good ground will not bother him and his experience, with 22 runs to his name on the Flat and over hurdles, will stand him in good stead. By contrast Nicky Henderson s Kilcrea Vale has run just twice, winning a point-to-point in May and then landing a weak race by 26 lengths on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen in January. The son of Beneficial could not have won that race any easier and his trainer 28

30 Day Two would not be sending him for a race of this calibre unless he felt the horse had the class to cope. Kilcrea Vale is evidently very highly regarded and whatever happens here, he must be kept in mind as a novice chaser in times to come. Latest reports suggest he may miss the meeting. Ordo Ab Chao improved markedly on recent efforts when battling on bravely to beat the well-regarded Value At Risk here in January. He has two alternative engagements at the meeting but trainer Alan King says he would not want ground quicker than good to soft, which may be an issue. Moving on to the Willie Mullins yard the current favourite is Nichols Canyon, a Pattern-class performer on the Flat for John Gosden (rated 104 at his peak) and the winner of three of his four starts over hurdles. Nichols Canyon was a stayer on the Flat, so this step up to two and a half miles should not bother him. He has looked more a galloper than a horse with gears. Outlander looked a fast-improving horse when beating Martello Tower with plenty in hand over 2m 4f last time at Leopardstown. The son of Stowaway travelled smoothly into the race before striding away on the run to the line. The winner of three bumpers in the 2012/13 season, Outlander does not lack pace despite having proven form over further. He already appeals as an exciting prospect for novice chasing. Tell Us More looked as if he would benefit from three miles when beaten three-quarters of a length by stable-companion McKinley at Naas in January. Shaneshill has the all-important course experience having chased home Silver Concorde in last year s bumper. He then reversed form with the winner at Punchestown and this season made a winning hurdling debut at Fairyhouse before finishing second to No More Heroes at Navan in December. This is probably the right trip for him but he needs to brush up his jumping. Black Hercules, fourth in last year s bumper just a couple of lengths behind Shaneshill, is more likely to run in the Albert Bartlett. By contrast Alvisio Ville would be better over the two miles of the Supreme. Arbre De Vie would be interesting following his victories at Fairyhouse and Warwick. He may be best on easy ground. Windsor Park is held by both Outlander and Nichols Canyon. He won two bumpers, once on the Flat and then his first two starts over hurdles, leading Dermot Weld to describe him as a stayer with speed. Windsor Park is a son of Galileo out of a daughter of Mr Prospector, so don t be surprised to see him improve if the race is run on better 29

31 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 ground. His trainer is a master at getting a horse right for the big day and I expect him to go well. Beast of Burden, winner of two novice hurdles at Ffos Las and Bangor, is one to keep in mind for fences next season. Vyta Du Roc is overpriced at 25/1 given that he ran Parlour Games to a neck at level weights at Newbury. He won his four previous starts over hurdles, having started at Uttoxeter last May, and he won at this track in November. The six-year-old would be one of the better outsiders if this is his chosen target. Latest reports suggest the Albert Bartlett is the more favoured. Outlander travels well and appears to have a change of gear. This looks the right race for him. Windsor Park is steadily improving with Parlour Games the obvious one to beat. RSA Chase (Ext 3m) 2.05 Look for horses that ran in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle last year four of the last five winners contested it. Another key stat is 19 of the last 22 winners were novice hurdling the previous season. Raiders from Ireland do well here, winning 16 of the last 18 runnings. Another race in which to avoid the older horses, with no winner aged nine or over since The RSA Chase once had a reputation for ruining a horse s long-term career and I can recall the days when the race was something of a graveyard for favourites, invariably being won by an old-fashioned slogger. That is less the case these days, with future Gold Cup winners Denman (2007), Bobs Worth (2012) and Lord Windermere (2013) winning the race in the last 10 years. Conditions at Cheltenham are generally less gruelling than they were, so perhaps the race takes less out of a horse. The betting is currently dominated by three horses Don Poli, King s 30

32 Day Two Palace and Coneygree but the one which most interests me is The Young Master. Currently rated on 151, Neil Mulholland s six-yearold is 15lb lower than top-rated Coneygree, on 166, but I love the way this horse races and he appeals to me as an ideal type for this. Latest news is that Barry Geraghty comes in for the ride. The Young Master won three of his 12 starts over hurdles last season, from marks of 94, 103 and 110. Remarkably, for a horse that stays beyond three miles over jumps, he has also won twice on the Flat over two miles, at Southwell off 46 and Kempton off 51. Since switching to fences he has won all four starts, starting with a novices chase at Worcester in September and then over 3m 1f at Cheltenham (121), a slightly longer trip at Wincanton (130) and then at Ascot off 144. He was subsequently disqualified at Wincanton because he was not qualified for the race. The Young Master races with great zest and tenacity. He is one of those horses that you can rely on to give his all, and that is the type of character you want in a horse for the RSA. The horse is also entered for the National Hunt Chase, but I would expect this to be his target. The clear choice on form is Coneygree. Connections have not yet decided, as I write, whether to run here or let him take his chance in the Gold Cup. The son of Karinga Bay was a gutsy staying hurdler, winning two Grade 2 races at Cheltenham in 2012, but he has proved even better over fences with an unbeaten run of three from three at Newbury, Kempton and then back at Newbury in the Denman Chase. On the latest occasion he beat Houblon Des Obeaux, rated 162, by seven lengths with the consequence that his mark was raised 13lb from 153 to 166. Coneygree only knows one way to race, and that is from the front. As you are aware from my earlier comments it is, in my view, very hard for a horse to make all in a top Festival race. Having said that Coneygree looks better than an average novice chaser and his class, if this should be his chosen target, should see him through. Willie Mullins seemed keen to aim Don Poli in the National Hunt Chase but apparently the owners favour this event. The six-year-old has won five of his eight races, with three seconds, and he followed up a victory on his chasing debut at Gowran Park in November with a defeat of Apache Stronghold in a 3m Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Don Poli showed a turn of foot between the last two fences at Gowran and then great tenacity next time at Leopardstown. He is hard to fault. 31

33 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Kings Palace was one of my leading fancies for last year s Festival but he was inhibited by a breathing problem and was very tired when falling at the last flight in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle. That issue has since been addressed but you can never be sure that it won t return, especially when a horse is asked to race at the top level. Kings Palace was an exceptionally good jumper of hurdles and he looks to be just as effective over fences. He has twice beaten Sausolito Sunrise, by five lengths in receipt of 5lb and then by seven lengths conceding 3lb, which represents an improvement through the runnerup of 10lb. Last time he beat Vivaldi Collonges by a length in a match, coming home with plenty in hand despite a shuddering blunder three fences from home. Kings Palace is probably still the best jumper in the race. Tactically he does not need to make the running and if Coneygree runs here then connections would be well advised to leave him to it. My concern with Kings Palace is that the demands of this race may precipitate a recurrence of his respiratory problems. Southfield Theatre has won three of his four starts over fences, last time beating the disappointing Melodic Rendezvous by two and threequarter lengths at Exeter. He was beaten a nose by Fingal Bay in the Pertemps last year and is another horse that likes to be up with the pace. His defeat came in ground softer than ideal at Newbury. Valseur Lido found Apache Stronghold half a length too good for him last time at Leopardstown. He had beaten that horse by eight lengths the time before at Fairyhouse. Very Wood proved himself an out-andout stayer when he beat Deputy Dan in last year s Albert Bartlett. The longer National Hunt Chase looks the more appropriate race for him. Sausalito Sunrise, who is also in the handicap on Tuesday, is held by Kings Palace and fell last time at Kempton behind Coneygree. The Young Master is fair value at 8/1 to make the frame. Coneygree will set a strong pace if this is his chosen race, while Kings Palace will be in contention if he gets home. 32

34 Day Two Coral Cup Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f) 2.40 Eight of the last 10 winners here were second-season hurdlers. Previous winning form is also a good indicator -15 of the last 20 winners had won earlier in the season. Despite being raised 10lb for not winning this season, Activial brings very sound credentials to this race. Harry Fry s lightly-raced five-year-old made a very good impression when winning the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton last year, but his trainer decided to give this meeting a swerve and save him for Aintree. He did not run very well there, but this season he has returned with thirdplaced efforts in two of the season s most competitive 2m handicap hurdles. The first was when he ran Bayan to two lengths, after tripping at the second last, in the Ladbroke at Ascot and the next was when he finished four lengths behind Violet Dancer in the Betfair Hurdle. The trainer says that Activial needs this longer trip, so this race is likely to be favoured over the County Hurdle. He can be competitive from a mark of 147 and I expect him to start one of the market leaders. Quick Jack must be high on our list for his chosen target. Tony Martin s six-year-old, who is also in the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle, was last seen finishing a very creditable third to Big Easy in the Cesarewitch. Before that, back in July, he won a 2m race on the Flat at Galway having won at the November meeting here off 113 and then third to Gilgamboa in a competitive handicap hurdle at Leopardstown. Quick Jack loves to be fresh and he enjoys good ground. I have no doubt that he has been prepared for this meeting and the only slight concern is the trip, as he has never raced beyond two miles over hurdles. He did, though, stay the 2m 2f of the Cesarewitch despite coming from a family mainly of milers. I am very keen to keep this still unexposed hurdler on our side but, with uncertainty over his target, any bet should be placed with a run. 33

35 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 We need to keep an eye on Paul Nicholls Aux Ptits Soins even though precious little is known about him. The five-year-old has run just three times, all in France, winning on his debut last March and then again in September. The second and fourth, from the later race, went on to win so the form has a fairly robust look to it. He apparently worked well at home with Lac Fontana, who is rated on 151, so an opening mark of 139 for this French import is probably workable. There has been support for him in the ante-post market. Regal Encore was high on my list for this meeting last year but he did not make the cut for the handicap. Intriguingly campaigned as a novice, when he invariably ran on from out of his ground, he was then beaten in the Imperial Cup and a competitive handicap at Punchestown. He started this season behind Shelford in a Grade 3 at Chepstow before running down the field in the Greatwood Hurdle. He eventually won his first handicap, stepped up to almost three miles, from a mark of 129 at Exeter. Trainer Anthony Honeyball believes the horse is better over a distance of ground, so the Pertemps Final may be favoured over this race. Now rated on 139, he is not certain to get into the race but probably has more to offer. Abbyssial, who was travelling well when falling at the second last in the Grade 2 won by Kitten Rock at Gowran Park, is quite classy. He also has entries for the County Hurdle and World Hurdle. Brother Brian won here over this trip in April off 127 and then won again from a 7lb higher mark at Kempton in November. He put up his best effort when third to Rock On Ruby here in December, suggesting a mark of 144 is more than fair. He is also in the Pertemps Final. Batavir is improving fast but has other options. Stable-companion Unique De Cotte also has alternatives. He won here in November and then at Ascot in February in the style of a horse with more to give. This is probably the right race and trip for Tea For Two. Bayan was third in this last year but is now a stone higher. Goodwood Mirage is apparently showing good form at home. He is also in the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe, but this longer trip on good ground could bring out the best of him. Pearl Swan, well treated if you go back to his form two years ago, is another to note. He is, though, less likely to be suited to this longer trip. Activial, Quick Jack and Regal Encore are the three I favour. Of the others Brother Brian looks well treated. Activial, who will appreciate rain, looks sure to run well. 34

36 Day Two Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m) 3.20 Look for horses who contested the Tingle Creek Chase as 10 of the last 14 winners previously ran in the race. Previous Festival form is also a good indicator 19 of the last 30 winners had won at the Festival before. With only one winner since 1977, avoid horses aged ten and over. I have never approached this race with such a feeling of uncertainty. In fact it would surprise me if anyone who studies the game could confidently express a strong view on the likely outcome. Many will assume that the race revolves around the wellbeing of Sprinter Sacre, who is still rated on a mark of 188, a full 16lb superior to last year s winner Sire De Grugy. Last year before we knew that Sprinter Sacre would miss the race, I was coming round to the view that Sire De Grugy was actually the one to beat. His season had begun from a mark of 161 in a Chepstow handicap, and then a second to Kid Cassidy, before winning the Tingle Creek by four lengths, the Desert Orchid Chase by the same margin and the Clarence House Chase at Ascot by 11 lengths from the talented Hidden Cyclone. Sire De Grugy s subsequent victory in this race for Gary Moore and his son was met with universal rejoicing from racing s inner sanctum, with the jockeys leaving the sanctuary of the weighing room to welcome the victorious partnership as they returned to the winner s enclosure. Nobody could remember seeing anything like it before, with racing s hardened professionals acknowledging the achievements of a dyed-in-the-wool racing family more accustomed to plying their trade on wet Mondays at Plumpton. This season the horse has had a less straightforward run up to the race, appearing at Newbury in February and unseating his rider when looking held at the second last. Then, enterprisingly as things turned out, a fortnight later he ran off top weight in a handicap chase at Chepstow. Giving upwards of 20lb to his rivals, he pulled away from the third last to win by seven lengths from the useful Grey Gold. 35

37 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Post-race reports from the trainer have been very upbeat and it would not surprise me to see the punters take the view, on the day, that he is a more reliable bet than Sprinter Sacre. Nicky Henderson will probably, in years to come, have rather more to say about the problems he has faced with Sprinter Sacre. In many ways Henderson belongs to the old school, preferring to keep some matters between himself and the owner who does, after all, pay the bills. However it is well documented that Sprinter Sacre has had heart problems, blood vessel problems and, I believe, issues with his wind. Yet, such are his achievements that his mark of 188 is the second highest in Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification history, behind only Kauto Star s post-2009 King George rating of 190. That is a terrifying prospect for the opposition in this race as, in theory, it means that the nine-year-old can afford to run about a stone below his best and still win. Having said that, on his return to action in the Clarence House Stakes he was beaten three lengths at level weights by Dodging Bullets, who is rated on 165. He did have Twinlight, on the same mark, five lengths behind so depending on which line of form you believe he ran to something between 162 and 170 still a long way below his peak mark of 188. A post-race veterinary examination revealed that the horse had bled from the nose something that occurs frequently and is not, necessarily, detrimental to a horse s performance. I think we have to accept that Sprinter Sacre has a fragile constitution, and this is the one place that will be tested. We will probably see him travelling powerfully on the bridle for a long way, but that climb to the line may find him out. Dodging Bullets has come of age this season, with victories in the Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase. A line through Somersby, who finished behind on both occasions, suggests he improved about a stone between those runs something the handicapper confirms, having raised him from 158 to 171. Dodging Bullets appreciates good ground and he has won three of his seven starts at Cheltenham. Noel Fehily says the horse had plenty more to offer at Ascot and, on figures, he is within a pound of Sire De Grugy. However, of the two, I would expect Sire De Grugy to come home the stronger. This now looks like being the target for Champagne Fever even though he has not won over the trip, in four attempts, since winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle two years ago. The grey s best form in 36

38 Day Two the last two years has been over two and a half miles, but that is no deterrent when it comes to a championship two-mile race at the Festival, especially as he can be keen. His mark of 162 leaves him with plenty to find but he has won at two Cheltenham Festivals and that counts for a great deal. Mr Mole seems to have found a level of consistency this season. The seven-year-old s two defeats of Brick Red aren t good enough to win this, but he had Sire De Grugy beaten before that horse fell in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Paul Nicholls has always held the horse in high regard and he believes Tony McCoy may have found the key to him, although judging by his antics at the start at Newbury he may still have a few more tricks to play with. Hidden Cyclone, with 19 finishes in the frame from 24 starts, is going to be a popular each-way choice. The 10-year-old was second to Dynaste in the Ryanair last season but then fell on his next two starts, before running second to Twinlight at Leopardstown over Christmas. He beat Bright New Dawn by five lengths at Punchestown but he needs those above him in the market to underperform if he is to win. If the ground is soft he will run here. The Ryanair will be more favoured on good ground. Of the others Special Tiara could set the field a merry dance. The eight-year-old impressed with his bold display of jumping when he beat Balder Succes by just over two lengths in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton. Whether he enjoys an uncontested lead here depends on the mood Mr Mole is in, but Sire De Grugy was over 15 lengths too good for him in this race last year and there is no evidence that he has improved a stone since then. Simply Ned ran second to Uxizandre on his only visit to the track and has since run third on unsuitably heavy ground to Twinlight at Leopardstown. A line though Balder Succes leaves him with a stiff task. I have no strong view on this race, with uncertainty, for different reasons, over both Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy. It is a race I am more than happy to sit back and enjoy. 37

39 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (3m 7f) 4.00 Irish raiders do well here. They have won eight of the last 10 runnings. Look at the head of the betting for clues 15 of the last 17 winners started in the first three in the betting. Enda Bolger is obviously the trainer to follow having won or had placed horses in seven of the last 10 runnings. Horses aged under eight should be avoided only two have won from a representation of 88. Pasquini Rouge has a better chance than his odds suggest but on all form Any Currency is a worthy favourite for this 3m 7f marathon. Martin Keighley s 12-year-old has run creditably many times at this track, most recently when beating Quantitativeeasing by 12 lengths over this course and distance in December. Twelve months ago he was beaten a short-head in this race by Balthazar King. Sire Collonges beat Any Currency here in December, 2013, while Richard Johnson is hopeful for Duke Of Lucca. No marks for imagination but Any Currency is the one that they all have to try and beat. If you would like to keep in touch with Marten s thoughts on a regular basis then read his free-to-view journal at: or ring him on: Selections given in the first minute (calls charged at 1.50 a minute at all times - may cost more from a martenjulian 38

40 Day Two Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Ext 2m) 4.40 Look at horses who have run just the qualifying three times this accounts for seven of the last 10 winners. Although mares have a low sample they have still won four of the last 10 runnings. Look for horses who have recently run. Eight of the last 10 winners had run in the previous 25 days. Gordon Elliott put forward this race as the target for Hostile Fire after he beat Zafayan by three lengths in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in January. The son of Iffraaj won there with something in hand, swinging along on the bridle turning for home before taking up the running approaching the last. Rated at a peak of 81 for Ed de Giles on the Flat, Hostile Fire does not have the best of strides but is expected to play a hand in the finish. There are numerous multiple entries to contend with here, with very little serious betting activity expected until nearer the day. Dan Skelton has said he is keen to run Zarib, a low-80s performer on the Flat in Ireland and the winner of two of his three starts over hurdles, the latest at odds of 1/4 in a novices hurdle at Wincanton. A mark of 133 is possibly a little on the low side. I expect Harry Fry to have a good meeting and Mick Jazz may have been let in lightly on 130. Following a couple of runs in France he ran fourth to Old Guard at Newbury before chasing home the very useful Top Notch back there in December. He has been keen on his two outings for these connections so the strong pace may help him settle. Sebastian Beach, who bounded away with a maiden hurdle at Chepstow, attained a mark of 84 on the Flat with Richard Hannon. That victory was a marked step up on his runs at Exeter and Ludlow, where he ran third to the useful Beltor. Sebastian Beach has since been beaten at Newbury. Dr Richard Newland told me a while back that he was aiming Vosne Romanee at this race. The son of Arakan was never 39

41 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 rated much above the mid-60s on the Flat for Keith Dalgleish but he won a couple of moderate races at Cartmel and Fontwell in the autumn and has since run quite well on the all-weather. He would not be the most straightforward horse in training, but his trainer knows how to get one ready for the big day and a mark of 126 is probably fair. If Beltor has a serious chance in the Triumph Hurdle, as many believe, then we need to take a close look here at All Yours, who ran second to him in the Adonis. He could be well treated on 137. Bidourey, rated 140, is unbeaten in five starts, twice in bumpers. Gwencily Berbas, a winner of his fourth and final start in France, impressed on his debut for Alan Fleming when winning by 12 lengths at Fairyhouse in February. He has loads of potential but his jumping lacked fluency and the hustle and bustle may be too much for such an inexperienced horse. Golden Doyen is extremely game and has to be considered. He toughed it out when beating Hargam at Cheltenham in November and then ran second last time at Ascot to that winner s stable-companion Top Notch. He has come up against some of the season s top novices having run Karezak to a head on his hurdling debut back in October. He is also in the Triumph Hurdle, and a prominent showing is expected. We need to keep an eye on Gary Moore s Baron Alco, even though he has been beaten twice since winning at Sandown in November. The trainer thinks he could be quite a good horse and the ground should suit him far better than the mud at Chepstow in December. This is never an easy race to unravel, but Hostile Fire won very easily at Fairyhouse and his shrewd handler said afterwards that this would be the plan. I also like Vosne Romanee, Golden Doyen and Mick Jazz. latest news Selections given in the first minute Calls charged at 1.50 a minute at all times May cost more from a mobile 40

42 Day Two Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Ext 2m) 5.15 Winning previous form is important here 20 of the last 22 winners won last time out. The Irish contingent do well, with 17 wins from the last 22 runnings. Look at the head of the market as 14 of the last 22 winners were in top six of the betting. This is not a race which makes great appeal this year. Moon Racer has not been seen out since hacking up here on his UK debut for David Pipe by 12 lengths back in October. Bought for 225,000 in the spring after winning for former connections at Fairyhouse in April he could be something special. Wait For Me did well to beat some useful performers on his debut at Ascot in February. See The World has to be respected following his truly remarkable victory at Wincanton, where he lost about 15 lengths when veering left a quarter of a mile out only to run on again and win. He could be anything. General Principle could not have won any easier at Punchestown, coming home 22 lengths clear of the second. Stone Hard looks useful and Modus has been saved since last spring for this race. Peter Bowen says Ghost River is one of the best young horses he has ever trained. Barters Hill is very tough rain would help him and Nicky Richards has high hopes for Western Rules. It is unclear which of his many entries Willie Mullins will send to post. This is a race to sit back and enjoy. Willie Mullins 41

43 Day Three JLT Novices Chase (2m 4f) 1.30 Another good race for the Irish with three winners from the last four runnings. Look to previous winning form for clues eight of the 12 had won on their previous start. Having left experienced observers swooning in admiration after a breathtakingly impressive chasing debut at Navan in October, Vautour secured himself pole position in the early ante-post betting for the Arkle Trophy. There were murmurings that Willie Mullins might have a better one at home we had not seen Un De Sceaux up to that point but having won last season s Supreme Novices Hurdle over two miles, the Arkle looked the obvious target. I would not have been alone in securing the best price I could on Vautour for the Arkle, confident in my expectation that he would win a couple more races and facilitate a trading option into a bet for nothing. When Un De Sceaux fell on his chasing debut in November it looked as if Vautour would be the number one Arkle candidate, but then on 20 December Un De Sceaux atoned for his earlier mishap when powering away in a 2m chase at Fairyhouse while Vautour, six days later, ran poorly to be beaten 17 lengths by a horse that had finished eight lengths behind him at Navan. Vautour looked more like his old self against two inferior opponents next time out, after which Ruby Walsh said he had always ridden the horse like a stayer this despite the horse having only once run, from 10 lifetime starts, over two and a half miles. Vautour is bred to stay one of his half-brothers won a cross-country chase over 2m 7f - even though he is generally ridden up with the 42

44 Day THREE pace. I am obviously disappointed that he is not running in the Arkle that won t happen unless the favourite has to miss the race but I want to stay with him as I believe he has a great talent. I would not mind if Ruby Walsh elected to make the running because, unlike Un De Sceaux, he can settle well in front. I never like siding at this meeting with a horse that fell on its previous outing. I don t know what light the statistics shed on last-time fallers here, but I seem to recall they seldom win, and Ptit Zig fell at the ninth fence in the race won by Balder Succes at Ascot having won his four previous starts at Exeter, Warwick, Ascot and Cheltenham. At Ascot he beat Josses Hill by nine lengths and at Cheltenham beat the useful Champagne West by six lengths. Ptit Zig was a very useful hurdler, running third in the 2013 Fred Winter and then last year not disgraced when sixth to Jezki in the Champion Hurdle. He is already rated a 2lb better chaser on official figures. Paul Nicholls says the horse has pleased him since Ascot and will have learnt from that mistake. Although he has won and run well on good ground, I have always felt he is better suited to easier conditions. Apache Stronghold has been mixing it with the best of the Irish novice chasers. Following a debut chasing success at Down Royal in October he found Valseur Lido eight lengths too good at Fairyhouse. He was then beaten three lengths by Don Poli over three miles before reversing form with Valseur Lido and beating him by half a length at Leopardstown. That race may have left its mark, because Apache Stronghold was all out to win with nothing in hand. Valseur Lido, who is also in the National Hunt Chase and the RSA, is untried beyond 2m 5f. He was beaten about 11 lengths by stablecompanion Vautour in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last season and would come into this race with a fair chance, but Willie Mullins would prefer him to tackle one of the longer races. This race may also be the target for the mare Gitanes Du Berlais. The five-year-old, who receives up to 8lb from her rivals, has run just twice over fences but won both times, at Limerick and Sandown. She looked a progressive horse on her latest start and at 14/1 she makes each-way appeal. Splash Of Ginge has been kept busy for a novice chaser, running six times since being beaten a long way on his chasing debut at Perth back in September. He then ran four times here, beating Ainsi Fideles in October and Hunt Ball back here in January. He fell between times and then last time was pulled up behind Gitane Du Berlais at Sandown. He is a tough sort of horse but did finish 20 lengths behind Vautour in the Supreme last year. 43

45 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 The Tullow Tank has not yet attained the level of form over fences that he achieved as a hurdler. I really liked him last season but he does not seem to be enjoying life over fences. I will be disappointed if Vautour does not win this. I would have fancied him strongly to win the Arkle Trophy, and I don t envisage this longer trip presenting much of a problem. Gitanes Du Berlais could be the each-way value. Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race - 3m) 2.05 A good race for older horses as seven of the last nine winners were aged eight and over. Last time out winners have had a fairly low representation here but have won 10 of the last 19 runnings. Not a race for five-year-olds, with only one winner from that age group in the race s history. Batavir, a winner three times, second once and third twice from his last six starts, has worked his way up the ratings from a mark of 119 in November to 132 here. He made all to win over 2m 6f at Ascot and then followed up under a penalty over the same trip at Wincanton. David Pipe s six-year-old has a Flat pedigree and is not certain to stay this three miles. Stable-companion Unique De Cotte made very hard work of landing some decent bets from a mark of 115 on his seasonal return over 2m 5f here in November. He then ran poorly 12 days later at Newbury before making all to win over an extended 2m 3f from a mark of 125 at Ascot in February. The seven-year-old, now on 135, has more to offer but he is a far from fluent jumper, and that may find him out in a field of this size. Big Easy is an admirably consistent dual-purpose performer. Winner of the Cesarewitch in October, he has since run second four times and fourth once from four starts over hurdles. Two of those runs were over three miles and more here, two outings ago getting beaten a nose off 11st 10lb. He would need to defy an all-time high mark of 145 to win this, but he has the class to do so and he won t be far away. 44

46 Day THREE Anthony Honeyball has not yet decided whether to run Regal Encore here or in the Coral Cup. I expect him to opt for this race, because he is certain to get a run while in the Coral Cup that is less likely (61 st on the list). After winning over an extended 2m 7f last time at Exeter the trainer said the horse relished the step up in trip. Regal Encore has always promised rather more than he has delivered, notably when running second to Briar Hill in the 2013 Festival Bumper, and then when catching the eye with some strong late finishes as a novice hurdler. A 10lb rise for his last win is hardly lenient, but the son of King s Theatre may realise his potential over this longer trip. JP McManus, who owns Regal Encore, can also be represented by Join The Clan. The son of Milan was always likely to return to winning ways when stepped up in trip given his stout pedigree, and he had slipped down to an attractive mark (122) when he won a 3m 2f qualifier for this race at Warwick in January. He then followed up over 3m 1f off 133 at Wetherby and is now rated on 139. This is his sole entry at the meeting and I expect him to take a hand at the finish. Tony Martin has to be respected in a race of this type and Edeymi is rather less exposed than his record would suggest. The son of Barathea, who was bred by the Aga Khan, has won just once from 15 starts over hurdles. He was quietly fancied when brought down early on in the 2013 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey s Handicap Hurdle since when he has won a 2m handicap on the Flat at Galway. It is very hard to get a profile of this horse, but the impression is that he can win a big one and this may be it. He has run creditably over the trip so stamina should not be a problem. Stable-companion Mydor is far more exposed, having won three of his 10 starts over hurdles. He has been in good form this season, winning twice in January and then running Lean Araig to a head in a 3m qualifier for this race at Punchestown in February. Having been rated on 95 a year ago, he is now on 130 following a 9lb rise for his latest run. The handicapper may now have him in his grip. Brother Brian has never been over this trip and has an entry for the Coral Cup. This progressive son of Millenary is bred to stay and is well treated on 144 given his fine effort at level weights when third to Rock On Ruby in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle here in December. A literal reading of that performance suggests he is at least 10lb better than this mark. Sybarite won here on good ground off 125 in October and has since run well on two return visits to Cheltenham off 133 and 135. There is much to like about the way this nine-year-old has been staying on 45

47 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 at the finish, and the prospect of good ground would be in his favour. Sybarite really likes it here and, at 25/1, there is some each-way value to be had with him. Dawalan has a touch of class. Strongly backed to win the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle here last season, he has since risen 17lb due to successes at Aintree (off 133) and Musselburgh (off 142). He is also entered for the Coral Hurdle. Stable-companion Call The Cops could be interesting following his easy victory at Doncaster last weekend. He also has an entry for the Coral Cup. The JP McManus pair Join The Clan and Regal Encore are interesting. Edeymi appears to have been put to one side for this meeting while Call the Cops could be interesting. Ryanair Chase (2m 5f) 2.40 Previous course form is the first thing to look at here. 16 of the last 20 winners or runners up had won at Cheltenham before. Four of the last 10 winners had previously been placed in the Ascot Chase. Not a race for big priced winners only one horse has finished bigger than 6 1 while eight of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite. This year s Ryanair has a very open look to it. Don Cossack is the worthy favourite having strung four victories together, beating Wonderful Charm by just over eight lengths at Down Royal in November and then Boston Bob in Grade 1 company at Punchestown before last time being left clear by the last-fence fall of Champagne Fever at Thurles. The better ground should not bother him as he has run well on it before. He is a progressive horse, having risen 15lb from 151 to 166, and Gordon Elliott has had this race in mind for the horse all season. Cue Card has talent to burn but remains a hard horse to catch right. I had him down as an unlikely stayer over three miles until he won last season s Betfair Chase at Haydock, and that was followed by a gutsy second in hock-deep ground to Silviniaco Conti in the King George. He was given a breathing operation last summer, but that doesn t appear to have made much difference because his three 46

48 Day THREE runs this season at Exeter, Haydock and Kempton have been disappointing. It is possible that he may benefit from coming here a fresh horse, back to two and a half miles and on better ground. Furthermore he likes this place, having won the bumper here in 2010, run fourth in the 2011 Supreme Hurdle, second to Sprinter Sacre in the 2012 Arkle and then a nine-lengths winner of this race in That is an outstanding Festival record by any standards, and if Colin Tizzard thinks he has the horse right then he could go very close. He has apparently worked well at Wincanton coming into this race. Balder Succes comes here in good form. He seems much happier over two and a half miles and last time beat the very useful Ma Filleule at Ascot with a little bit in hand. The seven-year-old is unbeaten in three starts over fences at this trip and the better ground will be fine for him. Ma Filleule comes to her best in the spring and gets the 7lb mares allowance. She has just over three lengths to find with Balder Succes but excelled here last year when running Holywell to one and threequarter lengths over an extended three miles, before winning the Topham Trophy from a mark of 150 by eight lengths. She ran well back there in December, second to Sam Winner over an extended three miles, and has strong claims, especially if the ground is on the good side. Johns Spirit has won three times at Cheltenham and ran one of his best races when beaten a head here by Caid Du Berlais in November from a mark of 156. He was not disgraced when stepped up to three miles for the King George a trip which is probably further than ideal and he comes into this race a fresh horse. On figures he has a few pounds to find, but his yard is now in form again and his liking for the track will stand him in good stead. Stable-companion Taquin Du Seuil has looked out of sorts this season but a return to form now seems likely. He won the JLT here last year but has struggled in four starts this season, three of them over three miles or more. Last spring Jonjo O Neill said he could be a Gold Cup horse, but the evidence suggests he is better at this shorter trip. A mark of 154 a drop from 159 at the start of the season illustrates the task he faces, but this is a horse with a touch of class and it would not surprise me in the least to see him run well. From his mark the entry for the 2m 5f handicap later in the day was a possible option but latest news suggests that he will run here. 47

49 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Hidden Cyclone, second to Dynaste in this race last season, is apparently more likely to tackle the Queen Mother Champion Chase if the ground is soft. On good ground he could go for this longer race. In November, 2013, he finished a close third to Johns Spirit trying to concede 13lb. On form he would be here with a great chance if they were a late change of plan. The form that Eduard showed when running second to Many Clouds, trying to concede the winner 6lb, at Carlisle in November (Holywell 15 lengths back in third), could hardly have worked out better. He then ran second to Wishfull Thinking at Huntingdon. At 25/1 he is overpriced for a horse that has finished in the first two in all but one of his 13 starts. Ballynagour, who has two other entries, was kept fresh to win the Byrne Group Plate here last spring. He then ran very well to finish third and second in Grade 1 races at Aintree and Punchestown. Connections have followed the same routine this year, having not run him since he was pulled up in the Hennessy. This is not an easy horse to catch right, but we can safely assume he will come here peaked to run his best. Wonderful Charm represents the best value in the race at 33/1. The seven-year-old was fifth in the JLT last year when he was hampered at the fourth last, losing ground and momentum. This season he returned a fresh horse with a defeat of Colour Squadron at Newton Abbot before running second to Don Cossack at Down Royal. The ground was against him in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon and he then failed to see out the trip in the King George. The key to this horse is to have him fresh. He also prefers good ground. When on song he is a very good jumper and on the best of his form he is within a few pounds of the market leaders. If Cue Card can return to form he will go well. Johns Spirit loves it here and Wonderful Charm, who will be fresh, is overpriced at 33/1. 48

50 Day THREE Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3m) 3.20 Look for horses with recent winning form - nine of the last 10 winners won last time out. Respect the head of the betting as the last 14 winners figured prominently in the market. Front runners do not do well here only one has been placed since In the unlikely presence of last year s winner More Of That this race has a very open look to it. Zarkandar always runs well at this meeting, winning the Triumph Hurdle in 2011 and running well in two Champion Hurdles before running fourth in this race last season. He was probably unlucky not to beat Reve De Sivola at Ascot in December having shaped well before that in three runs at Auteuil, notably when winning a valuable race there over three miles in November. Zarkandar has the best overall form in the race but one can t help feeling there may be one too good for him. Noel Fehily takes the mount. Stable-companion Saphir Du Rheu put forward his claims when beating Reve De Sivola by a neck here in January. That was a return to hurdling having unseated and fallen in two of his three starts over fences. Paul Nicholls says he can improve the six-year-old from that form and he comes here the most progressive horse in the field. The horse they all have to beat is Rock On Ruby. The 10-year-old s record over hurdles at Cheltenham reads in fact the only time he has finished out of the first three in 24 lifetime starts was when fourth in a bumper on his racecourse debut and then when well behind in last year s Arkle Trophy. Rock On Ruby has won and been second in two Champion Hurdles and he has been in great form this season, winning his last two starts over an extended 2m 4f here at Cheltenham. Harry Fry has deliberately kept him fresh for this race but the big question is whether he will stay the three miles? His pedigree is unclear on that point. His full brother Alpine Glade never once tackled three miles from 35 starts, but he did win at a modest level in Ireland over 2m 6f. Others in the family raced mainly at two miles, while the dam s sire Tirol was a top-class miler. In my view Rock On Ruby will stay the trip, but not perhaps as well as others. His supporters would have preferred regular pilot Noel Fehily to be taking the mount. 49

51 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Annie Power is more likely to run on the first day. In receipt of 7lb from the geldings she would start favourite to win if there were a change of plan. Although beaten by More Of That last season she got the trip well enough, in my view, but the Mares Hurdle looks the right target for her. Stable-companion Briar Hill was earmarked for this race but he has looked out of sorts this season. He was running better last time only to take a tumble at the last flight when in contention. Lieutenant Colonel, sixth to Faugheen here last year, commands the greatest respect. A 10-lengths winner over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse in April, he then ran third to Vautour at Punchestown in May. This season a brief foray over fences, when he finished second, was followed by Grade 1 victories over hurdles, on both occasions beating Jetson, at Fairyhouse and then stepped up to three miles for the first time at Leopardstown. At just six years of age this son of Kayf Tara has scope for improvement and he is a fine jumper. Un Temps Pour Tout seemed to get the three miles well enough when staying on into third behind Saphir Du Rheu here in January. He has almost 5lb to find with the winner on these terms but that was his first run since May and he may be capable of reversing the form. Cole Harden was 16 lengths behind the winner in that race, but this game six-year-old has since been given a wind operation. He is held by Rock On Ruby on earlier form but this is a very gutsy galloper who is sure to give his backers a run for their money at a big price. Whisper is not yet confirmed a certain starter. He put up an excellent effort here off 153 to win the Coral Cup and then followed up in a Grade 1 over this trip at Aintree. Nicky Henderson has had trouble getting him back and a decision about his participation will be made after he works at Kempton. Jetson is consistent but held by Lieutenant Colonel. The admirable Reve De Sivola, who will meet Saphir Du Rheu on 4lb better terms for half a length, had beaten Zarkandar by a head the time before at Ascot. His close form with two of the market principals gives him a greater chance than his current odds of 20/1 would suggest. The softer the ground the more it will suit him. Reve De Sivola would look massively overpriced at 20/1 if the rain came down and Rock On Ruby can never been excluded. Briar Hill hinted that he was on the way back last time and Cole Harden will outrun his price but at 12/1 Lieutenant Colonel makes some appeal. 50

52 Day THREE Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (2m 5f) 4.00 Look at the ratings for clues, as 25 of the last 27 winners were officially rated no higher than 141. Previous experience bodes well as 19 of the last 23 winners had run at the Festival before. Not a great race for the Irish with just one winner in the race s history. Respect the lower weights only two horses in the last 20 winners carried over 11st. David Pipe holds a strong hand here with Ballynagour and Monetaire. Ballynagour did us a favour here last year, returning fresh from a four-months break to beat Colour Squadron by eight lengths from a mark of 140. He then put in a career-best effort to finish third to Boston Bob in the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree before chasing home Sizing Europe back over two miles at Punchestown. He was pulled up in the Hennessy on his return and again comes to this meeting fresh. He has alternative entries for the Coral Cup, where he could run from a 5lb lower mark, and the Ryanair Chase. Monetaire is less exposed, having run just twice in the UK since arriving here from France. He has plenty of experience, having won twice from 31 starts in France, and he followed up a promising third to Bold Henry on his return in November with a defeat of Solar Impulse from a mark of 126 at Newbury. Subsequently raised 12lb to 138, Monetaire may have been kept off the track to protect his mark with this race in mind. He also has an entry for the Grand Annual. Taquin Du Seuil has dropped 5lb, from 159 to 154, since running fourth in the Denman Chase. Jonjo O Neill believes this is quite a tempting mark for last year s JLT Novices Chase winner even though his form this season has fallen short of that level. The horse has not quite lived up to the hopes once held for him, but the yard comes into this meeting in cracking form and Taquin Du Seuil seems to like it here. This could be the right race for Buywise, who has three other entries during the week. He ran fifth to Caid Du Berlais here in the Paddy Power and meets that horse on 8lb better terms for just over three lengths. Evan Williams says this is a gross horse, so he gave him a spin over hurdles at Ffos Las, where he won easily at very short odds. Buywise beat Astracad by five lengths here last April having run a good fifth in the novices chase at this meeting. The eight-year-old 51

53 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 has won six of his 11 starts and is still improving. He must command respect whatever his target. Caid Du Berlais, second to Flaxen Flare in the Fred Winter two years ago, won the Paddy Power here in November and was then pulled up a month later. He returned to form behind Splash Of Ginge in a 2m 5f handicap here on New Year s Day. Paul Nicholls says that although he has won on soft ground he may be more suited to better going. Un Ace may be more advantageously placed in the novices chase on the first day. Camping Ground lacks experience in this country, having won his first race for Robert Walford at Warwick last month. He won five of his eight starts in France and may still be unexposed. Ataglance, who won the Martin Pipe and a valuable handicap at Aintree in 2012, has not won a race since. He has, though, put up some very sound efforts including here last year, when he ran Present View to a head in the novices chase. Ballynagour would be respected if he were to run here while his lessexposed stable companion Monetaire is probably well treated. Buywise should also get a look in. Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m 2f) 4.40 The last six winners carried 11st 6lb and over. Stamina is also a good pointer the last 15 winners all ran over at least 3m last time out. Not a great race for Paul Nicholls, with just one placed horse from 16 runners. I have given a positive mention elsewhere to Pendra, who is bred to stay this 3m 2f trip but may not be an ideal conveyance for an amateur rider. Lightly raced for a seven-year-old, with just six races over fences to his name, the son of Old Vic promises to prove superior to this mark of 139 and it appears that his trainer Charlie Longsdon has kept him fresh for this meeting. Gallant Oscar, also entered on the first day, will be suited to easy ground. He has also run just twice over fences and looks fairly treated on 133, just 1lb higher than his chase mark a year ago, when you take into account the official margin of 23lb he has improved over 52

54 Day THREE hurdles since the start of November. The concern is that he has twice failed to complete, falling once and unseating his rider in last year s Irish Grand National. Masters Hill is a progressive sort who ran fifth of 18 to Very Wood in last season s Albert Bartlett. He is a likeable type of horse but has to defy a 7lb rise for his win at Exeter. Gevrey Chamertin likes to race prominently but can be ponderous over his fences and is prone to errors. Stable-companion Broadway Buffalo loves soft ground and has improved for being given a chance early on. Mud would be in his favour. This is very open but Gallant Oscar would make appeal if this were his selected engagement in the expectation Tony Martin will engage the services of a top amateur rider. Masters Hill and Pendra also merit a close look. Tony Martin 53

55 Day Four JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f) 1.30 Avoid the outsiders here eight of the last 10 winners started in the first four in the betting. Previous winning form is also a good pointer, as 17 of the last 21 winners won last time out. Lower rated horses from the Flat should be avoided only one winner was rated lower than 80 on the Flat since This race is rather less of a lottery than it was many years ago. Countrywide Flame (33/1) took some finding in 2012, but most other recent winners have started at 10/1 or shorter. The current favourite is Peace And Co, who is as short as 11/8 in one place but more generally available at around 9/4. At that price, with a maximum field, I would expect there to be more layers than players on Betfair, with a possible lengthening in his price on the day. Peace And Co is unbeaten in three starts, the first at Clairefontaine in June, where he jumped well in front to beat a subsequent winner and Grade 2-placed horse by three and a half lengths. His first run in this country was at Doncaster in December, where he went clear on the bridle from the second last to win by 19 lengths from a horse, receiving 3lb, that next time out ran the winner s stable-companion Hargam to six lengths at Musselburgh. Then, despite being unsuited to a very slow pace and pulling hard, Peace And Co beat the reliable Karezak by three lengths here at Cheltenham, conceding 3lb. It is no wonder that Peace And Co is so short in the betting. A line through Doncaster runner-up Starchitect gives him a margin of 16lb in hand of second-favourite Hargam and, more tenuously, even more of an advantage over many of his other contemporaries. On lines of form he is a worthy favourite. Furthermore he is generally a very slick jumper and the likely strong pace should help him settle. 54

56 Day four A case may be made for taking on a couple of the short-priced favourites at this meeting but, on form, Peace And Co is not one of them. Hargam, at around 6/1, ran three times for the Aga Khan on the Flat in France last summer. He won over 1m 4f at Longchamp in May and then ran fourth in a Listed contest back at nine furlongs, doing his best work late on. On his UK debut he can second to the very gutsy Golden Doyen before beating Karezak by a length and a quarter, in receipt of 3lb, and then he beat Starchitect at Musselburgh by six lengths. Hargam is a smaller horse than Peace And Co and seemed to be well suited by the good ground he got at Musselburgh. On the book he has anything between 8 and 16lb to find with the favourite. Nicky Henderson will also run Top Notch, who is unbeaten in five starts. His first two victories came last spring in France, and since joining these connections he has won at Newbury, Ascot and Haydock. The plan had been to hold him back for the Supreme, but latest reports suggest he will join his stable companions here. A line though Golden Doyen puts him in within a pound or two of Hargam. He is progressing fast and looks sure to take a hand. Beltor has shot into the picture following his impressive victory in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. It is not often you see a horse which takes such a keen hold quicken away as he did, especially in a race of such calibre. He had a progressive profile for Sir Mark Prescott on the Flat, winning a 1m 2f handicap at Redcar on his belated seasonal debut last September from a mark of 71, before running third off 76 at Nottingham. As a two-year-old he raced six times, finishing third three times. Robert Stephens, who bought the horse for 30,000gns at Tattersalls in October, was formerly assistant trainer to Sir Mark. Beltor did not surprise his trainer when winning at 16/1, despite wandering around in the closing stages, at Ludlow in January from horses in second and third that won next time out. Then at Kempton he beat All Yours by five lengths, with Bivouac a stable-companion of Peace And Co and Hargam a further nine lengths back in third. In receipt of 3lb, Beltor comes out 11lb the better of a horse that was beaten just over 14 lengths by Peace And Co at Cheltenham. The line through Bivouac, before allowing for the ease of his success at Kempton, puts Beltor within 3lb of Peace And Co so he goes to post with the soundest of credentials. 55

57 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Petite Parisienne, who won and finished second once and third twice from four starts on the Flat in France, followed up a second on her hurdling debut at Punchestown in December a race she should have won - with a hard-fought defeat of Kalkir in a Grade 1 contest at Leopardstown. It is a while since a filly won this race, but this daughter of Montmartre has a tremendous attitude and she receives a valuable 7lb allowance. Kalkir has been running like a horse that already needs further than two miles. The strong pace will bring his stamina into play which may enable him to reverse recent form with Petite Parisienne. Willie Mullins seems quite keen on his chance. Pain Au Chocolat, who can take quite a hold, will also be suited by the strong pace. The ground may be an issue with him as he seemed to enjoy the mud at Plumpton and Sandown. Karezak has run well in the races won by Hargam and Peace And Co. Second on nine of his 12 starts, including four times on the Flat, the son of Azamour seems genuine enough but there is no reason why he should reverse form with the market principals. He is, though, a good jumper and comes into the race as one of the most experienced horses in the field. At around 20/1 he is one of the better outsiders. One of the most interesting horses in the race is Gwencily Berbas. Alan Fleming s son of Nickname, who won once from four starts in France, stayed on well to beat his two rivals very easily by 11 lengths at Fairyhouse. He looks an out-and-out galloper with a future over fences but, despite his inexperience, he is one to note for the longer term. Nothing makes great appeal at the time of writing. Peace And Co is, by a clear margin, the pick on form and such is his margin of superiority I would not be rushing to oppose him. Of the remainder Beltor comes into the reckoning while Top Notch and Karezak make each-way appeal at 12/1 and 20/1 respectively. 56

58 Day four Vincent O Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f) 2.05 A good race for the Irish raiders, with six of the last eight. 10 of the last 11 winners were first or second-season hurdlers. Ruby Walsh does well here he has won four of the last 11 runnings. Look at the weights just two winners since 1960 have carried over 11st 2lb. Sgt Reckless warrants a special mention. Mick Channon s imposing eight-year-old might have won last year s Supreme Novices Hurdle with a better ride, having made up an enormous amount of ground into fourth from the home turn. He has since won a novices chase and a 1m 4f Flat maiden at Lingfield. Unfortunately he was raised 16lb, from 130 to 146 after Cheltenham, but he could still be effective here off 144. He also has an entry for the Arkle, but in light of his inexperience over fences this would be the wiser option. Quick Jack appears to have been put aside specifically for this meeting. Tony Martin s six-year-old was last seen running a threequarter length third to Big Easy in the Cesarewitch but his earlier form over hurdles, notably here in November 2013, marks him up as an ideal type for this race. He also has entries for the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, but this two miles looks the right trip for him. The concern is that he is 57 th on the list and so may not make the cut. Richard Johnson says that Cheltenian is one of his best chances of the week. It seems a while ago now that the nine-year-old won the Festival Bumper that was back in 2011 since when he has run just nine times, once over fences and on eight occasions over hurdles. He ran well when 5/1 favourite for this race last year, up there until the second last, and then ran two good races at Aintree and Punchestown. He ran one of his best races last time out when second to Violet Dancer in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. A 5lb rise, from 141 to 146, makes things tougher but at 20/1 this still unexposed horse makes some appeal. Calipto, fourth in the Triumph Hurdle, has run to a similar level of form in his three subsequent starts at Aintree, here in October and then last time when fourth, two places behind Cheltenian, at Newbury. I am not sure that he is suited to this stiff track. Modem 57

59 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 is a specialist in competitive handicap hurdles in Ireland but as a consequence he has been creeping up the handicap. Savello, winner of last season s Grand Annual Chase, can run from a 22lb lower mark over hurdles. He was fourth in a decent race last time at Leopardstown but he has five other options including the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Arbre De Vie also has other entries but would be coming here in good form. Activial is more likely to run in the longer Coral Cup. Ted Veale would be a contender if running here. Jonjo O Neill believes he has Goodwood Mirage at his best. A strongly-run race over two miles, on good ground, could be right up his street. Sgt Reckless, Cheltenian and Quick Jack are three to keep in mind once the declared runners are known. Of these Sgt Reckless, still unexposed over hurdles, makes some appeal. Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (3m) 2.40 Look for recent course experience seven of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. Stamina is also a good pointer eight of the last 10 winners had contested a race over three miles. Hurdle experience also matters as no winner had raced less than three times over hurdles. Running plans are undecided for a few of these, but Willie Mullins seems keen to aim Black Hercules at this race. The son of Heron Island won a point-to-point and two bumpers last season before putting up an excellent effort when fourth to Silver Concorde at the Festival. This season he has won both his starts over hurdles, lobbing along but jumping sloppily to land odds of 1/6 on his debut before stepping up to three miles to beat Alpha Des Obeaux by two and a half lengths, both races at Cork. Those races were on heavy ground, and Black Hercules looks an outand-out stayer despite his fine form in bumpers and over hurdles at two miles. The concern is that he is not yet a fluent hurdler. Gordon Elliott wants to run No More Heroes, a son of Presenting who won over 2m 6f at Punchestown in November and then showed great tenacity to beat Shaneshill by one and three-quarter lengths in a Grade 2 at Navan. He was a little disappointing when fifth of seven to 58

60 Day four Outlander last time at Leopardstown. There was nothing wrong with his attitude at Navan and he looks the right type for three miles round here. Dan Skelton is proving a decent trainer of a good horse and in Value At Risk he has the quality of animal that could be a valuable flag bearer for him in years to come. He was a few lengths behind Black Hercules in last year s Festival Bumper but then ran better when third to Shaneshill at Punchestown. He hacked up by 22 lengths on his hurdling debut for this trainer at Newbury before finding Ordo Ab Chao three-quarters of a length too good for him over an extended 2m 4f here in January. Value At Risk might have won that race if his rider had kicked for home at the top of the hill. As a son of Kayf Tara out of the very decent Miss Orchestra, a gutsy mare that won the Midlands Grand National over 4m 2f, Value At Risk is entitled to improve for the step up in trip. This is a progressive young stayer, with the potential to go a long way as a chaser. Nicky Henderson hopes to run Caracci Apache, a son of High Chaparral from a useful German family. He didn t seem to be anything special in two runs in bumpers in the summer but looked a different horse when he appeared over hurdles in December, beating his useful stable-companion Clean Sheet by one and a quarter lengths. A month later he won very easily over 2m 5f at Plumpton before beating Blaklion by a head over an extended three miles at Doncaster. Described by Henderson as untrainable last year, Caracci Apache has improved in leaps and bounds this winter and he has the great advantage of having won over the trip on reasonable ground. Henderson also runs Vyta Du Roc and Out Sam. The former split Parlour Games and Blaklion last time at Newbury having won his first race over hurdles at Uttoxeter in May. That was followed by further victories at Hexham, Cheltenham and Sandown. He is untried at the trip. Out Sam has won at Newbury and Ascot. He has not looked a natural over hurdles and may find this all too much for him. Blaklion is highly regarded by Nigel Twiston-Davies. A winner of an Irish point-to-point and then a dual-winner of bumpers at Ffos Las and Haydock, he went to Perth for his hurdling debut in September but hated the track and scrambled home. He looked much better a month later, winning the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle at Chepstow, and then ran well facing a stiff task when trying to 59

61 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 concede 3lb to Parlour Games over 2m 5f here. He looked far more at home stepped up to three miles back here in December, winning by 11 lengths, since when he has again run close to Parlour Games and then last time came that narrow defeat by Caracci Apache at Doncaster. Blaklion put up a gutsy effort when I saw him win the second of his bumpers at Haydock last season, and he seems to display the same attitude over hurdles. Never out of the first three under Rules, he is one of those horses that you can trust to always give of his best and, at 14/1, I make him the value of the race. Another horse that appeals at a decent price is Thomas Brown, a son of Sir Harry Lewis comes from the family of Gold Cup winner Forgive N Forget. The six-year-old did well to win two bumpers last year in the light of his stout pedigree and this season he has won two of his three hurdles, beating Vago Collonges over an extended 2m 5f at Exeter and then last time over an extended 2m 4f here at Cheltenham. Harry Fry says that Thomas Brown is an out-and-out galloper, so the strong pace and this first crack at three miles should be right up his street. He has a terrific attitude and I expect him to outrun his price. Stable-companion Bitofapuzzle would command plenty of respect if lining up here. The mare doesn t do things very quickly but she is all heart, as we saw when she just got the better of the equally gutsy Carole s Spirit in a Grade 2 at Ascot. Fry may also run Fletchers Flyer, a son of Winged Love who has won two out of four hurdles this season. He kept on well when failing by just half a length to concede 3lb to Definitly Red at his first attempt at three miles at Haydock. There is scope for improvement in his jumping. Martello Tower, twice behind Outlander and the winner of three of his six races over hurdles, ties in with the Irish novices. He is proven over the trip. Beast Of Burden, like many of these, has the profile of a decent staying chaser. He has won minor events at Flos Las and Bangor and seems to be going the right way. He does need to settle, though. Tea For Two has more suitable alternatives at the meeting over shorter trips. The Neptune is the better option for Windsor Park, who is not bred to stay this far. Value At Risk will run well but the two I like are Blaklion, who is very tough and progressive, and Thomas Brown, who is bred to appreciate this longer trip. Bitofapuzzle could run well if her trainer decides to let her take her chance. 60

62 Day four Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Ext 3m 2f) 2.40 King George VI Chase or Lexus Chase runners do well here 14 of the last 15 winners featured in one of those races. Not a race for outsiders as 13 of the last 14 winners were in the first three in the betting. Older horses do not do well here there has been no winner older than 10 since Nine of the last 13 winners did not run during the same calendar year. The Cheltenham Gold Cup picture had a rather murky look to it when I was writing the Dark Horses Jumps Guide back in the autumn and now six months later the picture is, if anything, even cloudier. Silviniaco Conti is favourite at around 3/1 following his defeat of Menorah, Dynaste and Cue Card in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and then a comfortable success in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. His margin over Dynaste at Kempton was half the distance he beat him by at Haydock, but Dynaste was probably a fitter horse the second time they met. Paul Nicholls has intentionally kept him fresh since Kempton as he believes this suits him. Silviniaco Conti has run three times at Cheltenham, once over hurdles and then in the last two Gold Cups. An official mark of 174 leaves him 8lb clear of next best Bobs Worth, who is on 166, and he indisputably brings the best recent form into the race. Although his nine chase victories comprise of five at Grade 1 level, and the other four at Grade 2, to my eyes he didn t truly relish the hill in last year s Gold Cup, while the year before he fell three fences from home when apparently travelling well. For me he is not suited to the track or the way the Gold Cup is run. Nicholls insists the horse is an out-and-out stayer, a view that is borne out by his victory in the hock-deep ground of the 2013 King George, but all his wins have been on flat tracks something the trainer has publicly noted before - and the sight of that daunting climb to the line may simply not be his thing. Bobs Worth has four lengths to find with Lord Windermere on last year s Gold Cup form but I think the horse was below par on the day. He is clearly fragile just six runs in two seasons tells us that but his overall record at Cheltenham reads , including three Festival successes, so he must still command the utmost respect if he gets here in one piece. There was little encouragement from his sole run this season in the Lexus Chase, where he was the last to finish, 61

63 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 but this is a horse that likes to be fresh and it would not surprise me to see him return to his best. The most interesting horses in the race is Djakadam. Willie Mullins said a while back that the six-year-old had the potential to be a Gold Cup horse, and he was going well when falling four from home in last season s JLT Novices Chase. He started favourite to make a winning return in the Hennessy Gold Cup, but dropped away from the second last - perhaps not staying the extended 3m 2f trip. Dropped to 3m 1f next time for the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park, he travelled and jumped well throughout to win by eight lengths under 11st 10lb (a mark of 145). Djakadam is related to horses that stayed well but there remains a lingering doubt about him getting home over the Gold Cup trip at Cheltenham. However, at the age of six and with just five chases to his name, he has the potential to find the improvement required to tackle the best. I envisage him travelling well for a long way without, perhaps, finishing the race as strongly as some of his rivals. Stable-companion Boston Bob was my original Gold Cup selection from the Dark Horses. He was never put into a challenging position on his return behind Road To Riches at Down Royal and then found less for pressure than expected when second to Don Cossack in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown. He stayed on well enough when fourth to Road To Riches in the Lexus, finishing just over six lengths behind the winner, before running a similar race when fourth to Carlingford Lough, never nearer than at the line. To my eyes Boston Bob has been running in the manner of a horse that is steadily coming to hand. That was the case last season, when he produced his best form in April at Aintree and Punchestown, and although he has officially deteriorated by 4lb from that level (down to 160 from 164), he likes good ground and is bred to relish the trip. I expect him to run his best race of the season. Mullins will also run On His Own, who should probably have been awarded last year s race had the stewards enforced the strict letter of the law. He has not matched that level of form this season, but the Festival possibly brings out the best of him. The same comment certainly applies to The Giant Bolster. David Bridgwater s remarkable 10-year-old has run second, third and fourth in the last three Gold Cups and nobody would begrudge him a victory in the race. He has, though, finished a long way behind Many Clouds 62

64 Day four and Silviniaco Conti this season his mark has dropped from 164 to 157 and his overall profile is regressive. I am a great believer in staying with Cheltenham Festival form and that is why I give Holywell a leading chance. His record 16 podium finishes from 19 starts reads very well for a horse that can run the occasional shocker. Twice he has battled up the hill at the Festival, first when winning the Pertemps Final in 2013 and then last season when he beat Ma Filleule by one and three-quarter lengths, conceding 7lb, in a Grade 3 handicap chase over an extended three miles. Holywell was even more impressive last April, when he beat Don Cossack by 10 lengths in the 3m 1f Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree, running to a mark 5lb above his rating. He returned to winning ways in a low-key race last time at Kelso having failed to impress on his first two starts. That was how it was in his pre-christmas runs last season, suggesting Holywell is a spring horse favouring good ground. Last year s winner Lord Windermere ran a blinder on his return to action at Punchestown, staying on strongly from the second last despite the 2m 4f trip being short of his best. He was then beaten over 11 lengths in the Lexus, finishing a length ahead of Bobs Worth and behind five of the horses he will meet here, before running a little better in third behind Carlingford Lough in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown. Lord Windermere, like Holywell, has two Festival successes to his name, following up his 2013 RSA victory with that battling defeat of On His Own in last year s Gold Cup. The horse proved that he was an out-and-out stayer last March, coming from way off the pace to score what looked an unlikely victory. The nine-year-old s form is not good enough to win he is held by Carlingford Lough, for one but he came into last season s Gold Cup with a similar profile and he has that all-important affinity with the track. He is evidently well suited to the pace at which the Gold Cup is usually run and the consequent emphasis that it places on stamina. I expect him to run well. Many Clouds followed his gutsy effort off 151 in the Hennessy with a one and a quarter length defeat of Smad Place in the Betbright Cup Chase at Cheltenham, conceding the runner-up 8lb, with Dynaste, rated on 167, a further neck back at level weights. Many Clouds is 63

65 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 one of the most progressive horses in the race having risen 21lb, from a mark of 144 at Carlisle in November to 165. That leaves him just 9lb adrift of the favourite and he has the added benefit of having won over the course and at Newbury beyond the distance. Unlike Silviniaco Conti, Many Clouds has won at stiff tracks twice at Carlisle and once at Exeter and Cheltenham and he has probably not yet finished improving. Many Clouds has serious claims in such an open race. Road To Riches is also upwardly mobile. He beat Rocky Creek by 11 lengths at Down Royal in November, after which Noel Meade said that they had changed his diet and training regime during the spring. He confirmed he was still improving when beating last year s Gold Cup runner-up On His own by a length and a half in the Lexus Chase, with Sam Winner, Boston Bob, Carlingford Lough, Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth all finishing behind him. Road To Riches had an incredibly hard race in the Lexus, under firm driving for the last half mile and staying on doggedly from the final fence. It did not make for pretty viewing and the exertions may have left their mark. Road To Riches has only once tackled more than three miles and that was when last behind At Fishers Cross over an extended three miles as a hurdler. He is, though, bred to stay and runs as if he will. Carlingford Lough, who gives Tony McCoy his last ride in the Gold Cup, is as tough as old boots. Successful in the 2013 Galway Plate from a mark of 133, he is now rated 33lb higher on 166 having run the best race of his career when beating Foxrock by three-quarters of a length in the Hennessy. Strictly on that form Carlingford Lough has something in hand of Lord Windermere, Boston Bob and On His Own, but we are talking of only a few pounds between them. The horse is, though, exceptionally tough and he is the ideal mount for McCoy s vigorous and animated style of riding. No news is through, as I write, about the participation of Coneygree. The eight-year-old is very inexperienced over fences, having run just three times, but he has won each of them and last time at Newbury he beat sound yardstick Houblon Des Obeaux by seven lengths in the Denman Chase, with proven horses further behind. That earned Coneygree a 13lb rise, from 153 to 166, putting him within just 8lb of Silviniaco Conti. Given the open nature of this 64

66 Day four year s Gold Cup it would not surprise me if connections decided to run Coneygree here rather than the RSA Chase. My concern would be that it is very hard for a horse, let alone a novice, to make all in a championship race at the Festival. I cannot imagine that he will be ridden any other way, and he is far from certain to enjoy an uncontested lead. Sam Winner is another progressive chaser that is going the right way. I thought he kept on very gamely at the finish when running third behind Road To Riches in the Lexus. He is now officially rated 15lb higher than when beating The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham in November, and that was followed by a one and a quarter length defeat of Medermit at Aintree. Sam Winner has won at the track and over an extended 3m 3f of the Old Course here in November. He has far more stamina than you would expect of a horse that won twice as a juvenile hurdler and ran fourth in the Triumph Hurdle. A mark of 162 represents the task facing Sam Winner, but as a progressive horse with proven stamina over further he has a better chance than his price of 33/1 would suggest. Don Cossack would have claims if Gordon Elliott switched here from the Ryanair. He does, though, look more effective over two and a half miles at the moment. Silviniaco Conti apart, there is not more than a pound or two between the established contenders and I would not be prepared to dismiss the chance of any horse with total conviction. A mistake here or there could make all the difference and I do not envisage there being a wide-margin winner of the race. The one abiding principal which has served me well in relation to the Gold Cup is that it is primarily a test of stamina. In fact the history of the race shows that stamina can compensate for a horse s lack of class. Without wishing to detract from their achievements, neither Lord Windermere nor Synchronised had obvious claims going into their Gold Cups but won the race because their stamina was superior to their rivals. Of the established performers I expect Boston Bob to go well. He was my original choice for the race and he has been quietly creeping back into form. Spring is his time of year and he is looking increasingly like a horse that now requires every yard of the Gold Cup trip. Holywell also rings his best form to the meeting. 65

67 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 From the new crop I like Many Clouds, Djakadam and Sam Winner. Of these, Sam Winner is the assured stayer, but Many Clouds should be fine as well because he has won over an extended 3m 2f in the Hennessy and at the track. There is nothing written in stone that states we have to have an opinion, let alone a bet, in the Gold Cup. This is the first time that I can remember when I have not had a serious ante-post interest. However because a selection is expected from me I am opting for Many Clouds. He is the most progressive horse in the race and has the scope to make up the leeway with the more established older order. Boston Bob and Sam Winner are others to consider at the value prices. St James s Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (Ext 3m 2f) 4.00 Recent winning form is a good pointer 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out. Recently, the Irish have done well, winning the last four runnings. Best to avoid older horses as 22 of the last 24 winners were aged under 11. Hunter chases are not everyone s forte, but if you can get your head around the point-to-point form you can end up with a decent priced winner. While the professionals regain their breath after the main event, the amateurs have a go in their own version of the Gold Cup. Run over the same course and distance, this is a race where you want a decent jockey on your side. Market leader Paint The Clouds goes into the race unbeaten over fences. Warren Greatrex s trained 10-year-old is fairly lightly raced for his years, due to a fractured pelvis and a tendon injury. However, the gelding has a pretty impeccable record to his name, having only been outside the top four places on three of his 21 career starts. Since pulling up in the 2013 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle the gelding has racked up four victories in the hunter chase sphere, with an aggregate winning distance of 56 lengths, the most notable of those wins being the Champion Hunters Chase at Stratford in May where he beat subsequent winner Shoreacres by eight lengths. Paint The Clouds reached a peak of

68 Day four as a hurdler and is already rated 137 over the larger obstacles but still remains unexposed. The son of Muhtarram probably still has room for improvement which could spell trouble for his rivals given how convincingly he dispatched former Racing Post Trophy winner Quinz, despite given him 15lb, on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in February. After that race his jockey Sam Waley-Cohen said the horse was a bit gassy in the early stages, a view that was echoed by his trainer who said he had left the horse a little short of fitness. That race should have put Paint The Clouds spot on for a tilt at the big one at Cheltenham. It is uncertain whether Waley-Cohen will be able to take the ride on this gelding as his father may run Warne. On The Fringe is no stranger to this race, having been third and fourth on his two previous attempts. Enda Bolger s gelding is no slouch. After finishing third to Tammys Hill in this race last year he overcame a bout of lameness causing him to miss Aintree to win in emphatic style at the Punchestown Festival in May a race that he was winning for the third year. He then gained a bloodless victory at Killarney later that month. On The Fringe has received the same preparation as last year. His seasonal reappearance came on Boxing Day at Down Royal in a race he won 12 months ago. Unable to gain back-to-back successes after getting tired after the second from home, he stayed on at the one pace to be beaten 19 lengths by Oscar Barton. He then went to Leopardstown where Prince De Beauchene was too good for him, but he stayed on strongly to be only beaten three quarters of a length. Enda Bolger has admitted that he is unsure whether it s a case of him not being quite good enough at Cheltenham, or whether or not the track is not quite to his liking. Whatever the case, he is still a class act on his day and one that will give you a good run for your money. Rodger Sweeney is hoping Salsify can win the race for a recordbreaking third time. Dual Foxhunter Chase winner Salsify returned from a 409-day absence having suffered from a knocked joint to finish fourth behind Prince De Beauchene at Leopardstown in February. He was taken to the front after the seventh fence, but soon felt the pinch and was headed before the last. That prep run should have helped to blow away any cobwebs from the 10-year-old. The key to this horse is the ground. Although he has won on heavy going, by far and away his best form is on the good ground. Provided he comes on for his reappearance he could be a threat. 67

69 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 Current Event, who has been notching up a series of wins in the point-to-point field, was able to translate his form to the track when winning in impressive fashion at Musselburgh in February. Held up to the light that win does look questionable. Monsieur Jourdain who was 13 lengths back in third then went on to be beaten 56 lengths by Paint The Clouds. Current Event was previously trained by Paul Nicholls, for whom his current handler Rose Loxton now works. Alan Hill is hoping Harbour Court can bounce back after what was a pretty disappointing end to last season. The nine-year-old was sent off the 5/1 favourite in this race last year but failed to land a blow, a defeat which his trainer attributed to his interrupted preparation. He was even more disappointing on his final start when tailed off back at Cheltenham in April, his trainer again stating the horse was jaded after a hard race at the Festival. Harbour Court finished second on his seasonal point-to-point debut and then made hard work to win at Milborne St Andrew in February, but Hill is much happier with the preparation this time around and believes his horse has got the buzz back. Harbour Court does not appear to be the easiest horse to train or ride, but he does have a bit of class about him. He is one to keep an eye on. Alan Hill may run Consigliere. The ex-david Pipe trained gelding is by no means a back-up plan. Since winning at Chepstow last season in a very easy fashion, he has notched up two wins between the flags. His trainer fancies his chances and gives him a good each-way shout at 25/1. Adrian Maguire has Two Rockers and Seventh Sign to call upon. Both horses were trained last season by Alan King but have since enjoyed success in the hunter chase and point-to-point sphere. Seventh Sign has three wins from four starts in open points to his name and kept on well behind Prince De Beauchene on his only start under Rules for his new handler. His Flat-biased pedigree does not necessarily lend itself to 3m 2f at Cheltenham but he does have a touch of class and appears to be the trainer s first choice going to the Festival. At only six years of age it could be a question of coping with the demands of the race, rather than not having the ability to win. Declan Queally rides. Two Rockers was highly thought of by his former handler, but he lost his way at the end of his hurdling career. The eight-year-old should be four wins from four starts in the point-to-point field but for unseating his jockey at the final fence last time out. He is bred for the job and 68

70 Day four given his young years he is open to improvement over fences. On paper this does not look like a vintage renewal. The favourite Paint The Clouds comes here in good heart and has previous experience at Cheltenham, but he may just find this race a little too competitive. On The Fringe is consistent and may not need to improve to make it third time lucky and you cannot discount a resurgence from Salsify. Despite the years being against him, the horse I am keen to take a chance with is Consigliere. He was a fairly useful sort for David Pipe and has made a good start for Alan Hill who also saddles Harbour Court. Of the two, the 12-year-old is the hardened battler and could just have enough left in the tank to make a bold bid. Of the others the inexperienced Seventh Sign could be interesting if he handles the occasion (Jodie Standing). 4.40: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (Ext 2m 4f) 4.40 Another race where recent winning form is a good pointer the last four winners won last time out. All six winners were second season hurdlers while 19 of the 21 win and place horses were first or second-season hurdlers. This is one of the trickiest races of the week to analyse, with most of the leading contenders have alternative entries. Paul Nicholls says this is the more likely target for Le Mercurey, who has dropped 5lb from a mark of 149 to 144. The ex-french five-yearold was beaten a long way by L Ami Serge on his UK debut and then stayed on well to finish third to Baradari in a Grade 2 hurdle over an extended 2m 3f at Ascot in January. He won twice from three starts in France, and was travelling well when falling on the other occasion. Whatever the outcome he is one for chasing next season. This is one of four entries for Roi Des Francs, a winner twice and second from three starts over hurdles. Quick Jack commands respect in his chosen engagement but 57 th on the list here he is not certain to get in. His stable-companion Edeymi appears to have been lined up for the meeting. Unique De Cotte won for conditional rider Kieron Edgar in November but the horse is not a good jumper and that was 69

71 mar ten julian s cheltenham bulletin book 2015 over 2m 5f. Goodwood Mirage would be interesting but may not be a suitable mount for a conditional rider. Pearl Swan is well treated on 138 if Paul Nicholls has got him back to his best. He would have gone close to winning the 2012 Triumph Hurdle but for coming down at the last. There is far too much uncertainty about running plans to come to any firm conclusions. Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Ext 2m) 5.15 Look at the weights 13 of the last 15 winners carried under 11st. Novices have done well in recent years winning four of the last six runnings. Ratings also offer a clue as no winner has been officially rated over 147 since It looks as if Noel Meade has prepared Ned Buntline for this race. The seven-year-old, who is owned by JP McManus, can run here from a mark just 2lb higher than when running second to Savello in this race last year. His only appearance this winter was at Leopardstown over hurdles at Christmas. Eastlake, sixth here last year and also owned by JP McManus, can now run from a 2lb lower mark. The nine-year-old has had problems with his knees over the years, but he ran well to finish third last time at Ascot over a trip beyond his best and he likes good ground. This race has probably been his target for a while. David Pipe s Monetaire has to be on the short-list for his chosen engagement (also in on Thursday). The ex-french nine-year-old has looked as if this is his trip in his two runs in the UK and a 12lb rise to 138 should see him get into the race. Softer ground would not bother him. Camping Ground was quite keen over an extended 2m 4f on his UK debut at Warwick. He showed plenty of ability over two miles in France. 70

72 Day four Tony Martin appears to have primed a few horses for the meeting and Ted Veale, who the County Hurdle two years ago and then fell two fences out in last year s Arkle, looks sure to run well again. He mixes it between hurdles and chases and has alternative entries this week in the County Hurdle and the Arkle Trophy. The front-running Next Sensation, fourth in this race last year, can run this time from a 1lb higher mark. Blood Cotil is well treated on 141. This is a tricky end to the week, but Eastlake makes some appeal at 16/1. Cheltenham Aftermath 71

73 mar ten julian s WINTER GUIDE 2014 g Star Betsg Marten Julian Vautour ggg L Ami Serge gg The Young Master g Jodie Standing Apache Stronghold ggg Sego Success gg Coneygree g Steve Dixon The New One ggg Quick Jack gg Sire Collonges g Rebecca Dixon Any Currency ggg Karezak gg Big Easy g 72