Sandown Wetherby & Leopardstown Analysis:

Transcription

1 Sandown Wetherby & Leopardstown Analysis: Trends & Pedigree Analysing three races from Sandown, three from Leopardstown & one from Wetherby from an alternative viewpoint Guide by Narrowing The Field

2 Deloitte Hurdle (Grade 1) 6 th February 1.55 Leopardstown

3 Deloitte Hurdle: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Deloitte so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Deloitte Hurdle Trends 1 15/15 no more than 8 previous NH starts 2 15/15 had last run between 22 & 67 days previous 3 14/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 4 13/15 were aged 5 or /15 had 2, 3 or 4 previous hurdle starts 6 13/15 had a top 2 finish on NH debut 7 13/15 had between 2 & 4 starts in current season 8 12/15 were IRE bred 9 12/15 finished 1st or 2nd last time out 10 11/15 had won a bumper and did not run on the flat 11 11/15 recorded a top 2 finish on their Hurdle debut 12 11/15 ran in a Graded race last time out 13 11/15 had previously won at G1 or G2 level 14 11/15 had at least 2 previous hurdle victories

4 2016 Deloitte Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Deloitte Hurdle to this year s entrants Tot BELLSHILL Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 14/14 TOMBSTONE Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N Y N N 10/14 PETIT MOUCHOIR Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y N N 10/14 BLEU ET ROUGE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N N 9/14 CONEY ISLAND Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N N N 8/14 Trend Follower(s) BELLSHILL

5 Deloitte Hurdle: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Deloitte Hurdle and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 15/15 had 8 points or more in their DP DI 13/15 had a DI of 1.67 or below 12/15 had a CD of 1.33 or below CD 13/15 had a CD of 0.39 or below 11/15 had a CD of 0.33 or below DPA (4/15) - DQ - 0 / / PATB - 1

6 2016 Deloitte Hurdle Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit BELLSHILL / CONEY ISLAND PATB TOMBSTONE / Can t be discounted Not ideal Wide of the mark N/A N/A PETIT MOUCHOIR / BLEU ET ROUGE /

7 2016 Deloitte Hurdle: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style BELLSHILL CP CP TOMBSTONE CP CP BLEU ET ROUGE HU/CP HU/CP CONEY ISLAND CP/HU CP/HU PETIT MOUCHOIR CP/HU CP/HU HU CP FR BELLSHILL TOMBSTONE BLEU ET ROUGE CONEY ISLAND PETIT MOUCHOIR No clear pace angle here so it could well get tactical. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-6 / cp-6 / hu-3

8 Deloitte Hurdle Trial Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 15) BELLSHILL 15/15 TOMBSTONE 11/15 Conclusion/Selection(s) BELLSHILL (W Mullins) I would have thought this one would have been odds-on for this contest so I m a bit surprised that 11/8 is floating about. He s done nothing wrong so far in 3 starts over hurdles and the only times he has slightly disappointed so far in his career has been in big fields when there isn t much cut underfoot. He s the one they all have to beat here.

9 Scilly Isles Chase (Grade 1) 6 th February 2.25 Sandown

10 Scilly Isles Novices Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Scilly Isles Novices Chase so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Scilly Isles Novices Chase Trends 1 14/15 had a 50%+ W-P Chase S/R 2 14/15 had between 2 & 4 chase starts 3 14/15 had between 2 & 4 runs in current season 4 13/15 had previously finished in the top 2 at 2m4f/5f 5 13/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 6 13/15 finished 1st or 2nd last time out 7 13/15 top 2 finish on their chase debut 8 12/15 ran within past 40 days 9 12/15 recorded their best chase RPR LTO 10 12/15 had between 1 & 3 previous chase victories 11 12/15 had 16 or less previous National Hunt starts 12 11/15 were aged 6 or /15 recorded an RPR of 141+ LTO

11 2016 Scilly Isles Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Scilly Isles Chase to this year s entrants Tot TEA FOR TWO Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y 12/13 BRISTOL DE MAI Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 10/13 AS DE MEE Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N N Y Y N 8/13 BITOFAPUZZLE Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y Y N N 8/13 MAXIMISER Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N N Y N N 7/13 UBAK N Y Y Y N N N Y Y N Y N Y 7/13 Trend Follower(s) TEA FOR TWO

12 Scilly Isles Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Scilly Isles Chase and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP 12/15 had between 10 & 22 points in their DP DI 10/14 had a DI of 1.67 or below 9/14 had a DI of 1.12 or below CD 13/14 had a CD of 0.58 or below 9/14 had a CD of 0.15 or below DPA (6/15) - DQ - 2 / / PATB - 2

13 2016 Scilly Isles Chase Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit AS DE MEE / TEA FOR TWO BITOFAPUZZLE Can t be discounted UBAK / BRISTOL DE MAI / Not ideal Wide of the mark N/A MAXIMISER /

14 2016 Scilly Isles Chase: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style AS DE MEE CP CP MAXIMISER FR/CP FR/CP TEA FOR TWO CP CP UBAK HU HU BRISTOL DE MAI FR/CP FR/CP BITOFAPUZZLE FR/CP FR/CP UBAK HU CP FR AS DE MEE MAXIMISER TEA FOR TWO BRISTOL DE MAI BITOFAPUZZLE This could be run at a decent clip with MAXIMISER, BRISTOL DE MAI and BITOFAPUZZLE all potentials to be on the front-end. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-6 / cp-6 / hu-3

15 Scilly Isles Chase Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 14) TEA FOR TWO 13/14 BRISTOL DE MAI 10/14 Conclusion/Selection(s) TEA FOR TWO (N Williams) Like Bellshill I thought this one would be odds-on as well so again I m surprised by the 11/8 available. These conditions should be prime for him G/S form of 2111, RH track form of , form of over 2m3f 2m5f and he already has a G1 chase on the CV and he should take all the beaten going this way round. Bristol De Mai is his closest challenger on my figures and the betting but with NTD having a Sandown record of 1/57 (0/32 over fences) since 2010 I couldn t begin to consider him here.

16 Flogas Chase (Grade 1) 6 th February 2.30 Leopardstown

17 Flogas Novice Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Moriarty Chase so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Flogas Chase Trends 1 15/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 2 14/15 had 18 or less previous NH starts 3 14/15 had at least 1 previous chase victory 4 14/15 had a 50%+ W-P Chase S/R 5 14/15 were aged 7 or /15 had previously won at 2m4/5f 7 13/15 were (IRE) bred 8 13/15 ran within past 51 days 9 12/15 recorded a top 2 finish on their chasing debut 10 12/15 recorded a top 3 finish last time out 11 11/15 had between 2 & 4 starts in the current season

18 2016 Flogas Novice Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Moriarty Novice Chase to this year s entrants Tot OUTLANDER Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 11/11 MONKSLAND Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y 10/11 PONT ALEXANDRE Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 10/11 ZABANA Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 10/11 MCKINLEY Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y 9/11 BLAIR PERRONE Y Y N Y Y N Y Y N Y N 7/11 Trend Follower(s) OUTLANDER

19 Flogas Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Moriarty Chase and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 13/15 had 8 points or more in their DP 12/15 had between 8 & 18 points in their DP DI 10/13 had a DI of 1.12 or below 9/13 had a DI of 1.00 or below CD 11/13 had a CD of 0.39 or below 9/13 had a CD of 0.11 or below DPA (4/15) - DQ - 0 / / PATB - 3

20 2016 Flogas Chase Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit ZABANA DQ MONKSLAND / PONT ALEXANDRE BLAIR PERRONE OUTLANDER / Can t be discounted N/A Not ideal MCKINLEY Wide of the mark N/A

21 2016 Flogas Chase: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style BLAIR PERRONE CP/HU CP/HU MCKINLEY CP CP MONKSLAND CP CP OUTLANDER CP CP PONT ALEXANDRE FR FR ZABANA CP CP HU CP FR BLAIR PERRONE MCKINLEY MONKSLAND PONT ALEXANDRE OUTLANDER ZABANA PONT ALEXANDRE should pull the field along from the front here. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-6 / cp-7 / hu-2

22 Flogas Chase Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 12) OUTLANDER 12/12 ZABANA 11/12 MONKSLAND 11/12 PONT ALEXANDRE 11/12 Conclusion/Selection(s) OUTLANDER (W Mullins) Plenty in this lads favour here. 2 from 2 at Leopardstown, with soft in the going description and in the Nov Feb period. He needs to prove he s a proper G1 animal here but he was always likely to improve for fences and he can continue his progression here.

23 Towton Novices Chase (Grade 2) 6 th February 2.45 Wetherby

24 Towton Novices Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 14 winners of the Towton Novices Chase so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Towton Novices Chase Trends 1 15/15 had previously won over at least 2m5f+ 2 14/15 were aged 6, 7 or /14 had a 50%+ W-P Chase S/R 4 13/15 had 17 or less NH starts 5 13/15 had recorded at least 1 previous chase victory 6 13/15 between 2 & 4 starts in current season 7 12/15 did NOT run in a graded race last time out 8 12/15 ran within past 48 days 9 11/15 finished 1st or 2nd last time out 10 11/14 recorded their best Chase RPR LTO 11 11/14 finished in top 2 on chasing debut 12 11/15 had between 2 & 4 chase starts

25 2016 Towton Novices Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Towton Novices Chase to this year s entrants Tot DEFINITLY RED Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/12 BLAKLION Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y 10/12 KINGSWELL THEATRE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y 10/12 BITOFAPUZZLE Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N Y Y 9/12 RUN RUCTIONS RUN Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y 9/12 NATIVE RIVER Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N N Y 8/12 Trend Follower(s) DEFINITLY RED

26 Towton Novices Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Towton Novices Chase and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP 12/15 had 14 points or more in their DP DI 11/14 had a DI of 0.92 or below CD 11/14 had a CD of 0.08 or below 10/14 had a CD of 0.00 or below DPA (6/15) - DQ - 3 / / PATB - 2

27 2016 Towton Novices Chase Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit BITOFAPUZZLE Can t be discounted BLAKLION Not ideal NATIVE RIVER / Wide of the mark RUN RUCTIONS RUN / KINGSWELL THEATRE / DEFINITLY RED /

28 2016 Towton Novices Chase: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style BLAKLION CP CP NATIVE RIVER CP CP KINGSWELL THEATRE CP CP DEFINITLY RED CP CP BITOFAPUZZLE FR FR RUN RUCTIONS RUN CP/HU CP/HU HU CP FR BLAKLION NATIVE RIVER BITOFAPUZZLE KINGSWELL THEATRE DEFINITLY RED RUN RUCTIONS RUN BITOFAPUZZLE looks the likely pace-setter in this although I suspect the others won t be all that far behind. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-4 / cp-8 / hu-3

29 Towton Novices Chase Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 13) DEFINITLY RED 12/13 BITOFAPUZZLE- 10/13 BLAKLION 10/13 KINGSWELL THEATRE 10/13 Most likely winner DEFINITLY RED (B Ellison) This lads jumping does need to improve but the fact he jumped average last time out and still got to within 3L of Black Hercules says plenty about his talent and if we consider he should jump better on this better ground (seemed to just be struggling to jump the fences out of the sticky ground) and with two chase runs under his belt I m more than willing to take a shot at him. He gets plenty of weight from a few of these (7lbs from the first two in the market) and that makes him of plenty interest as well. He s a graded winner over hurdles, he s in the Dec to Feb period and I m happy to stick with the trends topper here.

30 Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 6 th February 3.00 Sandown

31 Heroes Handicap Hurdle: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Heroes Handicap Hurdle so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Heroes Handicap Hurdle Trends 1 14/15 ran within past 63 days 2 14/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 3 14/15 had previously won at 2m4f or further 4 13/15 had 3 or less previous handicap hurdle victories 5 13/15 were aged between 6 & /15 had between 2 & 5 previous hurdle victories 7 13/15 carried or less to victory 8 12/15 recorded at top 4 finish last time out 9 12/15 won 1 of last 3 starts 10 12/15 had an OR 135 or below 11 11/15 had 14 or less previous hurdle starts 12 11/15 had 14 or less previous NH starts 13 11/15 had between 2 & 4 starts in the current season

32 2016 Heroes Handicap Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Heroes Handicap Hurdle to this year s entrants Tot BAYWING Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/13 DONNAS DIAMOND Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/13 SADDLERS ENCORE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N 11/13 YALA ENKI Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y 10/13 ANTEROS Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N Y 10/13 LITTLE BOY BORU Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N N Y 9/13 JOIN THE CLAN Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N Y 8/13 INVICTA LAKE Y N Y N Y Y Y Y N Y N N Y 8/13 MEDINAS N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N N N 7/13 IBIS DU RHEU Y Y N Y N N N Y N N Y Y Y 7/13 FOXCLUB Y N Y N Y Y N N N N N N N 4/13 Trend Follower(s) BAYWING DONNAS DIAMOND

33 Heroes Handicap Hurdle: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Heroes Handicap Hurdle and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 12 points or more in their DP DI 13/14 had a DI of 1.55 or below 11/14 had a DI of 1.32 or below CD 14/14 had a CD of 0.50 or below 11/14 had a CD of 0.36 or below 1/14 had a CD below DPA (10/15) - DQ - 2 / / PATB - 4

34 2016 Heroes Handicap Hurdle Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit LITTLE BOY BORU / MEDINAS / DONNAS DIAMOND ANTEROS / INVICTA LAKE DQ JOIN THE CLAN Can t be discounted BAYWING SADDLERS ENCORE PATB FOXCLUB DQ Not ideal Wide of the mark N/A YALA ENKI / IBIS DU RHEU /

35 2016 Heroes Handicap Hurdle: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style MEDINAS CP/HU CP/HU FOXCLUB HU/CP HU/CP IBIS DU RHEU HU/CP HU/CP YALA ENKI FR FR JOIN THE CLAN HU HU BAYWING CP/HU CP/HU DONNAS DIAMOND CP CP ANTEROS HU HU SADDLERS ENCORE CP CP LITTLE BOY BORU HU HU INVICTA LAKE HU/CP HU/CP HU CP FR MEDINAS YALA ENKI JOIN THE CLAN FOXCLUB IBIS DU RHEU ANTEROS BAYWING LITTLE BOY BORU DONNAS DIAMOND SADDLERS ENCORE INVICTA LAKE YALA ENKI could get an easy lead on the front end here although one assumes he won t be given as easy a lead as he got last time out. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-2 / cp-4 / hu-9

36 Heroes Handicap Hurdle Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 14) DONNAS DIAMOND 13/14 BAYWING 12/14 SADDLERS ENCORE 11/14 ANTEROS- 11/14 Conclusion/Selection(s) SADDLERS ENCORE (P Hobbs) This 7yo ran an eye-catching race off a lengthy break last time out at Wincanton, only fading late on when, naturally, his absence took its toll (620 days). Prior to his absence he fired in two victories in novice hurdles, beating Southfield Vic at Wincanton & Virtuel D Oudon at Exeter, both horses that have since gone on to back up that form numerous times. With that in mind, and with the promise he showed last time out, you would have to conclude that OR 129 is well within range for him and with the Hobbs team also firing at a decent rate in the past 14 days (7/25, 9 places) I m happy to side with this unexposed 7yo. DONNAS DIAMOND (C Grant) This one will definitely need to step up a gear for this but he comes in off a career best effort and a return to softer ground will be a bonus (14113 on Soft). He s at his best in the Jan Mar period ( ) and could well out run his double figure price.

37 Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) 6 th February 3.35 Sandown

38 Masters Handicap Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Masters Handicap Chase so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Masters Handicap Chase Trends 1 15/15 were either making their track debut or had previously recorded a top 3 finish at track 2 14/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 3 13/15 previously won at class 3 level or higher 4 13/15 had previously won at 3m+ 5 13/15 top 2 finish 1 of last 3 starts 6 13/15 carried or less to victory 7 13/15 had an OR of 139 or below 8 13/15 had between 1 & 4 starts in the current season 9 12/15 were aged between 7 & /15 recorded a top 5 finish last time out 11 12/15 had no more than 3 previous chase Hcp wins 12 12/15 had between 11 & 37 NH starts

39 2016 Masters Handicap Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Heroes Handicap Hurdle to this year s entrants Tot SAROQUE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/12 SUMMERY JUSTICE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 11/12 KNOCK HOUSE Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y 10/12 LE REVE Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y Y 9/12 UNIONISTE Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N Y Y 8/12 BLACK THUNDER Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N Y Y 8/12 PETE THE FEAT N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N 7/12 SEVENTH SKY Y Y Y N Y N N N Y Y N N 6/12 Trend Follower(s) SAROQUE

40 Masters Handicap Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Masters Handicap Chase and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP 13/15 had between 8 & 20 points in DP DI 11/14 had a DI of 1.67 or below 10/14 had a DI of 1.29 or below CD 11/14 had a CD of 0.50 or below 9/14 had a CD of 0.25 or below DPA (5/15) - DQ - 1 / / PATB - 3

41 2016 Masters Handicap Chase Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit PETE THE FEAT / KNOCK HOUSE / LE REVE PATB BLACK THUNDER / Can t be discounted SUMMERY JUSTICE / SAROQUE / SEVENTH SKY Not ideal UNIONISTE / Wide of the mark N/A

42 2016 Masters Handicap Chase: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style SEVENTH SKY CP CP UNIONISTE HU/CP HU/CP BLACK THUNDER CP/HU CP/HU LE REVE CP/HU CP/HU KNOCK HOUSE CP CP SUMMERY JUSTICE CP/HU CP/HU SAROQUE CP/FR CP/FR PETE THE FEAT CP CP HU CP FR SEVENTH SKY UNIONISTE SAROQUE BLACK THUNDER LE REVE KNOCK HOUSE SUMMERY JUSTICE PETE THE FEAT SAROQUE looks the most likely to go from the front here. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-3 / cp-7 / hu-5

43 Masters Handicap Chase Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 13) SAROQUE 12/13 KNOCK HOUSE 11/13 SUMMERY JUSTICE 11/13 LE REVE 10/13 Conclusion/Selection(s) LE REVE (L Wadham) I would have these as pretty much ideal conditions for him and he could well back up last year s victory by winning again here. If you look at his form on RH flat or slightly und tracks, G/S or Soft ground, 10 or less runners, Class 2 level or below and 2m3f 3m trips then you get a form line of ; he gets those exact conditions here. He s been running well enough recently under not always quite ideal conditions but he s dropped down to a handy mark of OR 144 and given that he placed in the BetBright Chase & Bet365 off higher weights I do think it s a mark that s within him. He also has excellent chase form at Sandown of 2113 and should be bang there come the business end. SAROQUE (V Williams) This 9yo gave his all in the Welsh National (finished 4 th ) but that 29.5f in heavy ground was beyond him (probably doesn t really stay beyond 3m form of 2427F4) and he ll appreciate this drop back in trip. He s another with good chase form at Sandown (124) and he s also returning within his prime DSLR window (3 of his 4 career wins when returning within 30 days) and he could well get an uncontested lead on the front end here. If Coleman gets him into a good rhythm out front (Coleman back in plate a definite bonus as he has ridden horse to all 4 of his career wins) he may prove hard to peg back.

44 Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1) 6 th February 3.40 Leopardstown

45 Irish Gold Cup: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Irish Gold Cup so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Irish Gold Cup Trends 1 15/15 had at least 3 previous chase wins 2 15/15 had their last start between 14 & 49 days previous 3 14/15 had previously won at Grade 1 level 4 14/15 had between 9 & 32 previous NH starts 5 13/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 6 13/15 had previously recorded a victory at the track 7 13/15 had between 1 & 4 runs in the current season 8 13/15 had previously won at 3m+ 9 13/15 ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race LTO 10 12/15 were (IRE) bred 11 12/15 won 1 of their last 3 starts 12 12/15 were aged 7, 8 or /15 had 16 or less previous chase starts 14 11/15 had a 70% W-P Chase S/R

46 2016 Irish Gold Cup Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Irish Hennessy to this year s entrants Tot ROAD TO RICHES Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/14 VALSEUR LIDO Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 12/14 FOXROCK Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N 11/14 GILGAMBOA Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N 11/14 SIR DES CHAMPS Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N 11/14 CARLINGFORD LOUGH Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N 10/14 FINE RIGHTLY Y Y N Y Y N Y N N Y Y Y Y Y 10/14 FIRST LIEUTENANT Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N 9/14 WOUNDED WARRIOR N Y N Y N N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 9/14 ON HIS OWN Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N N N 8/14 Trend Follower(s) ROAD TO RICHES VALSEUR LIDO

47 Irish Gold Cup: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Irish Hennessy and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 12/15 had 12 points or more in their DP 11/15 had between 12 & 20 points in DP DI 11/12 had a DI of 1.18 or below 10/12 had a DI of 1.00 or below CD 10/12 had a CD of 0.08 or below 9/12 had a CD of 0.00 or below DPA (5/15) - DQ - 0 / / PATB - 1

48 2016 Irish Hennessy Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit FINE RIGHTLY DQ FIRST LIEUTENANT PATB ROAD TO RICHES / ON HIS OWN / Can t be discounted CARLINGFORD LOUGH / SIR DES CHAMPS / Not ideal VALSEUR LIDO / Wide of the mark WOUNDED WARRIOR / FOXROCK / GILGAMBOA /

49 2016 Irish Gold Cup: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle Horse RS Running Style CARLINGFORD LOUGH CP/HU CP/HU FINE RIGHTLY CP CP FIRST LIEUTENANT CP/HU CP/HU FOXROCK CP/HU CP/HU GILGAMBOA HU/CP HU/CP ON HIS OWN CP/FR CP/FR ROAD TO RICHES FR/CP FR/CP SIR DES CHAMPS CP CP VALSEUR LIDO CP/HU CP/HU WOUNDED WARRIOR CP/FR CP/FR hu cp fr CARLINGFORD LOUGH FINE RIGHTLY ON HIS OWN FIRST LIEUTENANT ROAD TO RICHES FOXROCK GILGAMBOA SIR DES CHAMPS VALSEUR LIDO WOUNDED WARRIOR This should be run at a decent gallop with ROAD TO RICHES, ON HIS OWN & WOUNDD WARRIOR all potential front-runners in this. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-3 / cp-7 / hu-5

50 Irish Gold Cup Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 16) ROAD TO RICHES 14/16 VALSEUR LIDO 12/16 SIR DES CHAMPS 12/16 FINE RIGHTLY 12/16 Conclusion/Selection(s) Road To Riches probably wins this but I don t want to touch him at odds-on and there are plenty of decent each-way prices floating around elsewhere anyway. VALSEUR LIDO (W Mullins) He actually wasn t running all that bad a race when tipping up at the last in the King George although he s another of these Mullins horses that seems a stronger proposition on home soil ( in Ireland 03F this side of Irish Sea). Interestingly this is only the second time Ruby Walsh has ridden him (won the other time) and as a second season chaser with 2 G1 s already in the bank there is plenty chance he has more improvement still to come. SIR DES CHAMPS (W Mullins) The 2013 winner has to bounce back after a poor effort in the Lexus but I can forgive him that run on two counts; 1 - I m not convinced Heavy was ideal for him (0125 on ground win coming when left in front two out) whereas he has Soft ground form of and 2 For some reason he often runs below-par in December (form of 1124F45 compared to in other months). Granted it s unlikely he is the horse of old but that lexus effort can be forgiven and 25-1 is a damn tasty price for him here.

51 Please undertake sensible betting practices at all times. Visit to find out more about gambling. Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.