THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (on 10/24/2015

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1 THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (on 10/24/2015 OVERVIEW It was a very nice result yesterday when we decided to trust our All A Entries combo and only invest $54 into a sequence that looked pretty wide-open to me. It was a sound strategy, as our A-parade came in, resulting in a $ score. Today s $500K Guaranteed Late P4 is interesting, but it s definitely tricky because there are two MSWs for 2-year-olds, with several first-time starters in each one, so we ll have to rely on some up-to-the-minute info. Today also marks the return of Om and Dortmund, two horses inextricably linked with the great American Pharoah. Read on PICK 4 LEG 1 (R6): We start off today s Late P4 sequence with the first of two MSW juvenile races, this one contested at 5.5-furlongs on the main-track and your guess is as good as mine as to which of the three Bafferts is the most well-meant! Check the tote and paddock for clues, but for now, I m going top-heavy because we have such little information. #1 JES JAA (5/1) cost $165K back in April but is just getting to the races now. He s had plenty of steady works, and if you look at the September 13 work, you know he can run a little bit. Two things concern me: first, a 2-year-old drawing the rail in his debut is never a bargain; second, Sadler has been a little chilly this meet. GRADE: C. #2 ARABIAN LEOPARD (7/2), the first Baffert runner, was sent off at 3/5 in his debut, where he had a troubled start in a race that was won by his longer-priced stablemate (i.e., the other Baffert). In his second start, he was sent off at 9/5, where he tracked wide at one-mile before calling it quits. This $575K purchase has impressed in the mornings but hasn t been able to transfer that sizzle to the maintrack. Garcia sides with another Baffert, while Espinoza hops aboard here. Do we give this guy one more try on the cutback even though he looks like a two-turn horse? GRADE: A. #3 POLICE ESCORT (8/1), the second Baffert runner, was a $150K yearling, and while he has some very fast works heading into this race, he was based at Los Al up until early September before switching over to the A-team. Desormeaux hops aboard this Pennsylvania-bred. If you key off the September 30 work, he looks capable. GRADE: A. #4 IRON ROB (6/1) is the most experienced runner in the field, but that s not necessarily a good thing. His first two races were no good, but he showed a bit more stick in the lane in his last two starts, where he exhibited sharp early speed. The trainer is a bit chilly this meet, and he s never done particularly good work with juveniles. GRADE: C. #5 PAPA PAPA PAPA (10/1) set a blazing pace in his debut and then stopped like he was shot. Trainer Mark Glatt has since gelded this guy and put two quick works into him. He should outrun his odds. GRADE: B. #6 XANTO (15/1) is a son of Gio Ponti trained by Elizabeth Gray, who is saddling her first runner of the year. The horse has been training steadily at San Luis Rey, but he looks like he might appreciate more ground and more experience, as well as a switch to turf. GRADE: X. #7 NOTHINGELSEMATTERS (6/1) cost $70K back in May, and it looks like he had some trouble getting into a steady routine until he got to Santa Anita in September. Mario Gutierrez has done a terrific job riding Reddam-owned juveniles this year. GRADE: A. #8 OPPIDUM (5/1), the third Baffert, showed speed in his debut at Del Mar, where he pushed a fast pace and weakened badly. He was sent off at nearly 7/1 that day, so I can t imagine he was in it to

2 win it, since Baffert firsters always take money when they are live. He s been freshened since, which isn t a great sign, but the works have been pretty good and this is where Garcia ends up. GRADE: A. #9 JURY (4/1) cost $140K back in March, and he s spent most of his time since then training with King Jerry s D-team at Los Al. That said, Bejarano sees fit to ride, and it s hard to ignore a trainer who wins 30 percent of the time at first-asking. GRADE: B. LEG 2 (R7): Today s featured event is the always fascinating $200K Twilight Derby (G2), a 1-1/8 mile turf affair for 3- year-olds-only. Can Om wire the field in a race that lacks any other quality speed? #1 HUNT (IRE) (8/1) made his first U.S. start at Del Mar, where he showed a serious late kick going one-mile on the turf. He closed resolutely to just miss despite a pretty slow pace. Before that, his career in Europe was just mediocre, but I like that he s been given some time and has been pointed for this. Plus, Smith stays put despite having other options. GRADE: A. #2 MISTER BRIGHTSIDE (IRE) (6/1) has won three races overseas, but they all have come sprinting on straightaways. He gets Lasix for his U.S. debut, which I like, and even though he s never been this far, he must be considered because of his European experience. I mean, they must have shipped him over here for a reason, right? GRADE: A. #3 OM (9/5) showed that his defeat of American Pharoah last year wasn t a fluke by running a hole in the wind in the Del Mar Derby (G2), where the hood was removed so Gary Stevens could perfectly ration this guy s brilliant speed. After the Del Mar Derby (G2), trainer Dan Hendricks said that this was next, so you know this date has been on his calendar. Plus, he s got a major pace advantage here. GRADE: A. #4 GROUND RULES (6/1) has run some very nice dirt races; in fact, he looks a bit like his stablemate Prospect Park, who was very good on the dirt before freaking on the turf in the La Jolla (G3), beating Om. I m not sure this guy is as good as that one, however, and I find it troublesome that Desormeaux doesn t ride back. GRADE: C. #5 BOONE DOCKS (20/1) just wired one of the weakest groups of maidens you ll ever see at Santa Anita, setting a leisurely pace before repelling a small challenge to get the win. This is much deeper water today. GRADE: X. #6 SOUL DRIVER (9/2) ran two very sharp mile races in overnight-stakes before stretching out to today s distance in the Del Mar Derby (G2) and not really firing. Smith sticks with the rail horse, even though this guy has proven class. If he gets back to his summer form, he could be dangerous, but that s a big if. GRADE: B. #7 DADDY D T (12/1) broke his maiden in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf last year at Del Mar beating some honest horses, but he hasn t won since, and he s still eligible for an N1X. He s clearly had some physical issues, since he hasn t been seen since March, and even though one can expect him to have matured a great deal since then, this is a very tough spot to come off a long layoff especially since Sadler is a dismal 0-for-56 under these circumstances. Wait for next time? GRADE: C. #8 ROYAL ALBERT HALL (GB) (8/1) is a very honest horse who really tries, even when he s in over his head. He found East Coast turfers way too tough in the Hill Prince (G3), but before that, he ran second to Om at 30/1. At this point, he looks better suited to the gimmicks, but Bejarano rides for the first time, and Banjo is always good for a couple of lengths upgrade. GRADE: C. #9 SECOND SUMMER (8/1) just broke his maiden at Del Mar, showing a nice turn of foot to get the money. I like the way this horse finishes his races, so the 1-1/8 mile distance should be right up his alley. I just wonder if a few of these are a little farther ahead of him right now. That said, trainer Peter Eurton is positively on fire, and I m sure this has been the goal ever since the maiden-breaker. GRADE: C.

3 #10 VERRACO (20/1) definitely has some ability, which is why I find it curious that Cassidy has risked him for a tag three times yet no one bit. After just beating $75K claimers, he now tries stakescompany, where he has failed to impress. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R8): The third leg of today s sequence is an overnight-stakes races, the $70K Big Bear, contested at one-mile on the main-track, and it s an important race because it marks the return of Dortmund, the once-feared stablemate of American Pharoah. Can he return to form after being sidelined since the spring? #1 CAT BURGLAR (9/2), the first Baffert entrant, looked like he was on his way to being a solid handicap horse last year before he had to hit the bench. His races this year have not been nearly as good and, in fact, I don t think Baffert quite knows what to do with him, since he s tried five different distances to no avail this year (including a 6.5-furlong sprint and a 1-1/2 mile route and he s worked him on the turf!). He definitely has some good morning activity heading into this race, and he should get a good trip behind his stablemate and the other speed. GRADE: C. #2 MOTOWN MEN (5/1) is capable of running some very big races, but he s had a pretty hard campaign ever since he was claimed back in March for $40K. I can t fault what Ted West has accomplished with this guy since then, but I d really like to see this warrior freshened up after several tough races. That said, he loves Santa Anita and today s distance, and he should get a good off-the-pace trip. Tyler is back on board, and he rides him perfectly. GRADE: B. #3 POINT PIPER (4/1) has run two really sharp dirt races since joining the Hollendorfer barn, including a 30/1 upset in an overnight-stakes at Del Mar. He is a very good finisher, and he should benefit from what I expect to be a quick pace. He ll also have plenty of stamina cutting back from 1-1/8 miles. GRADE: A. #4 SOI PHET (6/1) is a cool horse, but for a horse who owns 8 career wins, don t you find it troublesome that he s 0-for-10 at Santa Anita? On his best day, he fits here, but he seems to do his very best running at Los Al. GRADE: X. #5 DORTMUND (4/5) ran a valiant third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) this year, setting the pace and digging in only to be edged late by two other rivals, including his stablemate American Pharoah. He then laid an egg in the Preakness (G1) and went to the shelf, where he had to overcome a serious illness. I m thrilled to see this big chestnut back in training because I ve always admired his physicality and natural speed for such a big horse. His last two works are sizzling, so he should be ready to run, but he s facing elders for the first time and he ll have some pace pressure today. GRADE: A. #6 MYSTERY TRAIN (ARG) (20/1) makes things very tricky for Dortmund because the only thing that isn t a mystery about this Argentinian Grade 1 winner is that he has plenty of early speed, so he s likely to hound Dortmund the whole way. Of course, that also compromises his already slim chances, having shown that his skill-set is better suited to lesser circuits, where he has performed much better than here. GRADE: X. LEG 4 (R9): We close out the sequence with the second of two juvenile races, and this one is an MSW contested at one-mile on the turf. We don t have much to go on, but we ll do our best. #1 MR. ROARY (12/1) cost $110K in April and now debuts for a trainer who doesn t often win first-out or with 2-year-olds. I do, however, like the breeding for turf and I also like that Desormeaux takes the mount. I bet this one has a little bit of run in him, but maybe we ll look for him next time. GRADE: X. #2 FIN DE SEMAINE (20/1) only cost $42K in March, and Paddy Gallagher rarely has them cranked first-out. The presence of bug-boy Panicucci makes me think this one is out for a spin. GRADE: X.

4 #3 OPENING ROADS (15/1) is a firster by Temple City who only brought $30K as a yearling. Kitchingman is decent with firsters, and he legs up bug-boy Kennedy for the 7-pound weight-break. I m sure the instructions are to send hard and hope for the best but it s always tough to win at first asking when going two-turns. GRADE: X. #4 UNDENIABLE U (10/1), the first Baffert entrant, debuted at 5.5-furlongs at Los Al, where he was well-beaten. He now tries the turf, which isn t really Baffert s move. The fact that he has experience is a plus, and so is the presence of Espinoza, but I d like to see how this one handles the turf first. GRADE: C. #5 STRONG VALUES (6/1) makes his third career start after two okay one-mile turf races. That experience will help, especially since he s shown an ability to pass horses. He had some trouble last time and was still only beaten 2-3/4 lengths. GRADE: B. #6 UNAPOLOGETIC (8/1) also makes his third career start after two okay spins over the turf. He also had some trouble last time, so I do think he s capable of better, especially since his trainer can do no wrong right now. GRADE: B. #7 CANADA (4/1) has taken money in both of his starts but has been very unlucky. In his debut, he ran into Hollywood Don, who later won a stakes race, and last time, he had an absolute horror trip. Stevens hops back aboard this $500K yearling purchase, and I think we ll finally see the best of him today. GRADE: A. #8 QUALITY LINE (10/1) hasn t made much of an impact running over dirt, so Victor Garcia tries the turf to shake things up. That s not really his move, though I will say that the pedigree suggests turf should be fine. But I almost wonder if this is a turf-to-dirt move for a cutback next time. GRADE: X. #9 ABOVE BOARD (8/1), the second Baffert, cost $350K as a yearling and now makes his first lifetime start on the turf which is odd for a Baffert runner. But the works suggest he can run. GRADE: C. #10 BRITISH BULLDOG (7/2) cost $210K back in April and then showed a decent run in his debut to finish second at Del Mar at 28/1. Proctor rarely has them fully cranked for their first starts, especially going two-turns on the turf. I expect this is the horse to beat today. GRADE: A. #11 AZTEC WARRIOR (5/1) cost $225K back in May, so you know he can run a bit. He s also bred nicely to handle the turf. Bejarano takes the call, which is good, but I d have to think this guy is just out for a spin today to gain some experience, especially given the tricky outside post. GRADE: C. SUGGESTED WAGER Because of the uncertainty in the first leg, I don t want to invest in the whole matrix, which is quite costly right now ($190), so I ll just stick with the first three lines until I have better information heading into leg one. The All A Entries and A s with Two B s ticket costs $126, while the All A Entries and A s with One B costs $80. My plan is to narrow down leg one based on tote and paddock paddock Tweet, and maybe then I ll be able to get more coverage in the other legs. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: (SCROLL DOWN FOR TODAY S TICKETMAKER MATRIX.)

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