High Speed Rail: Is Liverpool on Track? Frank Rogers - Deputy Chief Executive & Director of Integrated Transport Services, Merseytravel

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1 High Speed Rail: Is Liverpool on Track? Frank Rogers - Deputy Chief Executive & Director of Integrated Transport Services, Merseytravel

2 Championing the case for HS2 June 2013 HS2 Stakeholder engagement event for the Liverpool City Region September 2013 HS2 Ltd. Board meeting & reception in Liverpool December 2013 Growth Taskforce board presentation January 2014 Formal Consultation response

3 The initial case for HS2 Freight issue wasn t fully appreciated It was more about speed, not enough about capacity and connectivity Potential for re-balancing of the national economy was underestimated Local connectivity wasn t appropriately covered Economic growth and regeneration potential for the Liverpool City Region not fully recognised Opportunity for advancing spend in the North not considered

4 Liverpool City Region - Rebalancing the economy One of the fastest growing economies Inherent strengths in high value industry sectors including: Advanced manufacturing Life sciences Low carbon & renewable Financial & professional services Digital & creative Maritime & logistics 3 Enterprise Zones Source: ONS Regional GVA data

5 Liverpool City Region - Rebalancing the economy Superport developments delivering a step change in the economy Liverpool 2, a major new container facility, opens in 2015 Potential to remove over 150 million HGV miles per year from the congested roads in the South East Source: MDS Transmodal

6 Liverpool City Region - Rebalancing the economy A fast-growing visitor destination, now the 5 th most popular city for trips by overseas tourists Exhibition Centre opens in Spring 2015, delivering a further boost to the City Region s growing conference market A growing cruise market 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Overnight staying visitors (000s) Liverpool Elsewhere City Region Source: STEAM data, Liverpool LEP

7 The Liverpool City Region: an awareness of size Source: ONS data

8 Background to HS2 Proposal to construct a Y shape high speed rail network Phase 1 (London to Birmingham) due for completion 2026 Phase 2 (Birmingham to Leeds and Manchester) due for completion 2033 Current proposal is for Liverpool City Region to be served by classic compatible service running on existing rail network from Crewe

9 Current Offer: Proposal of 2 trains per hour: Train 1: Liverpool Runcorn Crewe London, taking 1 hour 36. Train 2: Liverpool Runcorn Crewe Stafford London, estimated at 1 hour 46 using conventional line to Lichfield. Current WCML time 2 hour 8.

10 Current Offer: Does little to help freight north of Crewe The need to value freight? Forecast daily freight paths by 2030: WCML RUS, Network Rail, 2011*. Source: KPMG Regional Impacts Study *Does not include many SuperPort traffic generators

11 Issues With HS2 Appraisal Utilised 2008 population data for the ONS projections, showing decline Census 2011 proved this was incorrect Projections for other areas proved more accurate Underestimates economic potential of the Liverpool City Region Value of released capacity for freight not covered Need for an independent economic study utilising up to date information

12 Population Census Revisions Source: ONS, Mid-Year Population Estimates

13 HS2 Economic Study Commissioned by Merseytravel and LEP on behalf of the City Region Examined four scenarios and economic impact of each :- Policy off current HS2 proposal Policy on current HS2 proposal Policy on omitting Stafford stop Policy on direct HS2 link to Liverpool Route agnostic Utilised the Oxford Economics Liverpool City Region forecasts.

14 City Region Forecasts Population Population (000s) Working age population (000s) 1,580 1,000 Forecasts Population (000s) 1,560 1,540 1,520 1,500 1,480 Forecasts Working age population (000s) ,460 Baseline Scenario 860 Baseline 1, Scenario Source: Oxford Economics for Liverpool LEP

15 City Region Forecasts Employment/Unemployment Total employment (000s) Unemployment (000s) 740 Forecasts 60.0 Forecasts Total employment (000s) Unemployment (000s) Baseline Scenario 10.0 Baseline Scenario Source: Oxford Economics for Liverpool LEP

16 City Region Forecasts GVA GVA ( m, 2010 prices) Annual GVA growth (%) 45,000 40,000 Forecasts 5% 4% 3% Forecasts GVA ( m, 2010 prices) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 GVA growth (% p.a.) 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% ,000 5, Baseline Scenario -4% -5% -6% Baseline Scenario Source: Oxford Economics for Liverpool LEP

17 HS2 Economic Report Findings A direct link (Option 4) results in the following benefits to the City Region: An increase in GVA of 8.3bn on a 60 year NPV basis ( 557m per annum) An increase in employment of over 14,000 jobs with the potential for a total of 26,000 Released capacity resulting in freight benefits of up to 40m per annum and 630m on a 60 year NPV basis Uplift in City Centre residential values estimated to be around 180m An increase of over 20,000 new residents requiring 10,000 homes to be constructed Business rates uplift estimated in the order of 30m per annum Over 700,000 additional visitors per annum to the City Region

18 Journey time savings benefits Where impacts come from (60 year NPV, Scenario 4) GVA 967m Tourism benefits GVA 1,375m What s not included: 432 1,740 Increase in business rates 395m Increase in land values 179m GVA 8,342m Impact of company HQ relocations 14,172 Use of link by other passenger services Development opportunities GVA 6,000m Released capacity for freight services 30m per path 12,000

19 Ready for HS2? Long Term Rail Strategy

20 New Connections New / upgraded infrastructure New / enhanced station Direct Link to Scotland The City Region Rail Network of Ormskirk - Preston Electrification 2043? North Wales Mainline Electrification Merseyrail Rolling Stock Replacement Borderlands Electrification Stock Int Tunnel Burscough Bridge Low Level Liverpool Station Enhancements Wapping Tunnel Airport Rail Link LSP Turnback Burscough Curves Kirkby - Wigan Electrification Tarbock Interchange P&R Halton Curve Skelmersdale Station and Link CLC Improvements Ensures HS2 services can be accessed by the City region and surrounding area Provides access to jobs and employment Delivers connections with key regional and national destinations Deeside Industrial Estate Enables growth and adds to prosperity in region by facilitating new development Chester - Crewe Electrification Direct Link to Shrewsbury / Cardiff Crewe Hub Direct Link to Stoke / Derby / Leicester

21 The case for HS2 Freight issue is now understood HS2 is about capacity and connectivity, not just speed National re-balancing of the economy is included Local connectivity is covered Economic growth and regeneration potential is appreciated Opportunity for advancing spend in the North

22 HS2 is essential for the future of this country It is also vital to take the unique opportunity that HS2 presents for the North and use it to the full. And that can only be achieved through a regional, rather than a purely local or national approach. That is why, on Phase Two, I have suggested more work needs to be done on integrating HS2 into the existing rail network and potential improvements to it. HS2 should also be fully integrated into the plans that local authorities across the North are making to regenerate their particular economies and communities. It should form part of the effort to revitalise the northern economy as a whole. A coherent approach would maximise the value to the local and national economies, and be a real catalyst for change in terms of regeneration and rebalancing the spread of wealth and prosperity in the UK. I would suggest, therefore, that the Government look at how to achieve that coherence and consensus across the region as quickly as possible. HS2 Plus, Sir David Higgins

23 Liverpool is on the right track! The economic outlook for the LCR has moved on (from the 2008 assumptions used by HS2) HS2 huge opportunity for attracting inward investment to LCR as well as indigenous economic growth Investment in supporting rail system is key to realise full potential of HS2 benefits Economic impacts will be of national significance as well as important at regional and sub regional level LCR committed to playing its part in recognising the value to the wider northern and national economy

24 Today: Moving forward Letter to Secretary of State, Minister of State, DfT and HS2 Ltd. July 2014 Campaigning continues Your City Region needs you!!! HS2 is essential for the future of the Liverpool City Region