February 6, Dr. Michelle Wargo Rub, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center
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1 James Yost Chair Idaho W. Bill Booth Idaho Guy Norman Washington Tom Karier Washington Jennifer Anders Vice Chair Montana Tim Baker Montana Ted Ferrioli Oregon Richard Devlin Oregon February 6, 2018 MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: Council Members Laura Robinson, Program Liaison Coordinator SUBJECT: Presentation on survival of adult spring/summer Chinook salmon through the estuary and lower Columbia River amid a rapidly changing predator population BACKGROUND: Presenter: Summary: Dr. Michelle Wargo Rub, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center Dr. Wargo Rub is a Fisheries Biologist for NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center. Much of Dr. Wargo Rub's research is focused on salmon run timing and the effects marine mammal predation has on it. At the February Council meeting, Dr. Wargo Rub will present to the Council members the latest findings of her research on marine mammal predation on Chinook salmon in the estuary and lower Columbia River. Relevance: Preserving program effectiveness by supporting expanded management of predators is a priority of the Council s 2014 Fish and Wildlife Program. Background: A NOAA research group led by Dr. Wargo Rub has been studying the annual spring Chinook run since 2010 and has captured, marked and released several thousand fish, tracking their progress as they move up the river to spawn. NOAA contracts with commercial fishers to catch spring Chinook in the estuary around river mile 28, near Tongue Point east of Astoria. Researchers insert tags into the fish and release them back into the river. Sea lions also are tagged in the Astoria area so their 851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Steve Crow Portland, Oregon Executive Director Fax:
2 movements in the river can be monitored. According to Dr. Wargo Rub, most stay in that area, but a small percentage travel all the way to Bonneville where up to half of the predation on spring Chinook occurs. Eight years of research has shown year-to-year variations on Chinook survival and run timing in the lower river and estuary. Of particular interest is a peak in Chinook mortality in Many reasons, such as flow variations, could account for annual differences in Chinook mortality, but Dr. Wargo Rub feels confident that pinniped predation plays a large role. More Info: Attached is Dr. Wargo Rub s December 2017 presentation to the ISAB.
3 Survival of adult spring/summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) through the estuary and lower Columbia River amid a rapidly changing predator population A. Michelle Wargo Rub, Ben Sandford, Don Van Doornik, Matthew Nesbit, Samuel Rambo, Jesse Lamb, Louis Tullos, Gordon Axel, Brian Burke, Kinsey Frick, Mark Sorel, David Huff, & Rich Zabel NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC)
4 The primary goal of this study is to provide estimates of survival and run timing for spring/summer Chinook salmon returning to the Middle & Upper Columbia & Snake Rivers UCR Study Area MCR SR Photo by Darren Ogden, NOAA NWFSC
5 Commercial tangle net crew hauling in a Chinook salmon
6
7 Rkm 60 Bonn TR Rkm 232 N = 76 Fish in 2010 N = 64 Fish in 2011
8 Weighted Mean Survival for Interior CR adults (FL 56 cm) Year Adult Chinook salmon (N) Range of sampling dates Baseline Survival (95% CI) Baseline Mortality Potential Mortality due to harvest and handling Unexplained mortality /14-5/11.74 ( ) /1-5/16.73 ( ) /23-5/31.69 ( ) /19-6/14.60 ( ) /20-5/13.46 ( ) /19-5/8.52 ( ) * 70 3/28-5/23.70 ( ) * 89 3/21-5/22.62 ( ) *Preliminary estimates and assume 7% harvest
9 Upriver spring/summer Chinook salmon mortalities year Total CR spring/summer Chinook salmon returns (N) Upriver spring/summer Chinook salmon returns (N) Number of upriver fish mortalities (95% CI) , ,345 (.67) 34,688 (9,460-59,916) , ,158 (.68) 28,751 (2,212-33,174) , ,090 (.68) 30,464 (18,278-40,618) , ,136 (.64) 34,478 (13,545-54,180) , ,635 (.77) 104,333 (82, ,170) , ,994 (.69) 106,928 (75, ,717) ,215* 19,210 (2,744-37,048) ,008** 24,242 (10,101-39,393) *Upriver return to Bonneville Dam as of 5/31/17 **Upriver return to Bonneville Dam as of 6/11/17
10 Radio Telemetry
11 Radio Telemetry Results % 13% 10% 13% 18% California Sea Lion Presence N=30 Chinook Salmon Mortality N=80 33% 3% 48% 7% 3%
12 Radio Telemetry Results % 7% 15% 0% California Sea Lion Presence N=30 Chinook Salmon Mortality N=78 50% 0% 10% 25% 3% 0%
13 Median TT to Bonn PIT: 2016=1.8d 2017=5.7d Median TT to Bonn PIT: 2017=9d TT from release to Brown s Island=6.7d in 2016 and 15.1d in 2017
14 Early modelling GLM Regression analysis indicates the following variables are significantly related to survival: CSL haul out counts at the EMB Clip Status Water temperature below Bonneville Dam (also highly correlated with date) Bonneville Spill However, these predictors are describing only 8% of the variance. We need to go further if we are going to use the resulting model to predict survival.
15 Random effect: Tagging date Linear Mixed Effects Modelling Fixed effects: Clip status Exposure to CSL based on EMB counts and travel time to Bonneville Dam Eulachon abundance (based on plankton counts) Bonneville Dam spill *The area under the ROC was.71 indicating the model is adequate with respect to being able to predict survival
16 Linear Mixed Effects Modelling Mean Range Unit Odds ratio (95% equivalent CI) Clip NA 0-1 NA 0.67 ( ) CSL ( ) Eulachon 3.2 x x x ( ) Spill ( ) The mean, range, unit equivalent and estimated odds ratios for the fixed effects covariates (Clip = no adipose fin, CSL = sea lion exposure, Smelt = smelt abundance, Spill = spill over Bonneville Dam (kcfs)) selected for the final model.
17 Conclusions: We have identified significant mortality that is unexplained by harvest and handling for upriver spring/summer Chinook salmon This mortality appeared to peak during 2014 and 2015 at approximately 100k fish. Mortality during 2016 and 2017 was ~19k and ~24k respectively and appears to be similar to estimates from ranging from 29-35k Pinniped predation is likely the primary source of mortality but not all animals are equal with respect to the impact they are having on returning fish Additional covariables potentially influencing survival include spill, abundance of smelt, and clip status
18 Acknowledgements: Susan Hinton, George McCabe, and Bob Emmett of NOAA Fisheries Pt. Adams Research Station, Jim Simonson and crew of NOAA Fisheries Pasco Research Station, Laurie Weitkamp of NOAA Fisheries NWFSC, Newport Research Station, David Kuligowski of NOAA Fisheries NWFSC, Manchester Research Station, John Hess, Doug Hatch & Ryan Brandstetter of CRITFC, Jason Romine and Mike Parsley of USGS, Chris Kern and Geoffrey Whisler of ODFW, Matt Campbell of IDF&G, Brian, Frank, & Stephanie Tarabochia, and Dan Marvin of Astoria, OR, Sean Hayes of NOAA Fisheries SWFSC, Kane Cunningham & Colleen Reichmuth of the Institute of Marine Sciences, Long Marine Laboratory, UCSC, NOAA Near Term Priority (2010 & 2011) and NOAA Fisheries Cooperative Research (2012, 2013, & 2014), Albert Little, Wyatt Wullger, Ben Rudolph, & Cody May of Ocean Associates, Dave Caton & Lila Charlton of PSMFC
19 % Survival Survival varied by tagging date Early Middle Late Sampling period
20 Travel Time to Bonneville Dam (d) Median Travel Time (d) to Bonneville Dam by release group Mar 17-Mar 27-Mar 6-Apr 16-Apr 26-Apr 6-May 16-May 26-May 5-Jun 15-Jun 25-Jun U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 18
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847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR Phone: (503) Fax: (503) us at
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