NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC)
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1 Survival of adult spring/summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) through the estuary and lower Columbia River amid a rapidly changing predator population A. Michelle Wargo Rub, Ben Sandford, Don Van Doornik, David Teel, Matthew Nesbit, Samuel Rambo, Jesse Lamb, Louis Tullos, Kinsey Frick, April Cameron, Nicholas Som, Mark Henderson, Mark Sorel, David Huff and Rich Zabel NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC)
2 The primary goal of this study is to provide estimates of survival and run timing through the estuary and lower CR for spring/summer Chinook salmon returning to the Middle & Upper Columbia & Snake Rivers There is concern that pinnipeds entering the CR during spring is impacting adult salmon through predation 234 RKM UCR ESA Listed Photo credit: Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife March 2015; 6k harbor seals (top) & 2k sea lions (bottom) Study Area MCR SR Photo credit: Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
3 Commercial tangle net crew hauling in a Chinook salmon Fish are captured by CR commercial fishermen, tagged by NOAA Fisheries research biologists, and released. Greater than 2500 adult salmon have been PIT- tagged for this study since 2010.
4 NOAA & ODFW began tracking fish and pinnipeds using RT in 2016
5 Weighted Mean Survival for Interior CR adults (FL 56 cm) Year Adult Chinook salmon (N) Range of sampling dates Baseline Survival (95% CI) *Preliminary estimates and assume 7% harvest Baseline Mortality Potential Mortality due to harvest and handling Unexplained mortality /14-5/11.74 ( ) /1-5/16.73 ( ) /23-5/31.69 ( ) /19-6/14.60 ( ) /20-5/13.46 ( ) /19-5/8.52 ( ) * 70 3/28-5/23.70 ( ) * 89 3/21-5/22.62 ( )
6 Upriver spring/summer Chinook salmon mortalities year Total CR spring/summer Chinook salmon returns (N) Upriver spring/summer Chinook salmon returns (N) Number of upriver fish mortalities (95% CI) , ,345 (.67) 34,688 (9,460-59,916) , ,158 (.68) 28,751 (2,212-33,174) , ,090 (.68) 30,464 (18,278-40,618) , ,136 (.64) 34,478 (13,545-54,180) , ,635 (.77) 104,333 (82, ,170) , ,994 (.69) 106,928 (75, ,717) ,215* 19,210 (2,744-37,048) ,008** 24,242 (10,101-39,393) *Upriver return to Bonneville Dam as of 5/31/17 **Upriver return to Bonneville Dam as of 6/11/17
7 Radio Telemetry Results % 13% 10% 13% 18% California Sea Lion Presence N=30 Chinook Salmon Mortality N=80 33% 3% 48% 7% 3%
8 Radio Telemetry Results % 7% 15% 0% California Sea Lion Presence N=30 Chinook Salmon Mortality N=78 50% 0% 10% 25% 3% 0%
9 Linear Mixed Effects Modelling Random effect: Week of tagging nested within year with autoregressive component Fixed effects: Clip status Exposure to California Sea Lions based on EMB abundance during the week fish were tagged Abundance of Shad in the estuary during the week fish were tagged Note: Annual Eulachon abundance is highly correlated (=.83) with annual CSL abundance *The area under the ROC was.70 indicating the model is good with respect to being able to predict survival
10 Model response curves: Survival Probability
11 What have we learned? We have identified significant mortality that is unexplained by harvest and handling for upriver spring/summer Chinook salmon This mortality appeared to peak during 2014 and 2015 at approximately 100k fish. Pinniped predation is likely the primary source of mortality but not all animals are equal with respect to the impact they are having on returning fish Additional covariates potentially influencing survival include the abundance of shad, and clip status, and the abundance of eulachon Stay tuned.. Up close study of tailrace survival Population level survival and behavior as we summarize results using parentage-based genetics
12 Acknowledgements: Susan Hinton, George McCabe, Paul Bentley, and Bob Emmett of NOAA Fisheries Pt. Adams Research Station, Jim Simonson and crew of NOAA Fisheries Pasco Research Station, Laurie Weitkamp of NOAA Fisheries NWFSC, Newport Research Station, David Kuligowski of NOAA Fisheries NWFSC, Manchester Research Station, John Hess, Doug Hatch & Ryan Brandstetter of CRITFC, Jason Romine and Mike Parsley of USGS, Chris Kern and Geoffrey Whisler, Matt Tennis, Bryan Wright, Robin Brown of ODFW, Steve Jeffries of WDFW, Matt Campbell of IDF&G, Brian, Frank, & Stephanie Tarabochia, and Dan Marvin of Astoria, OR, Sean Hayes of NOAA Fisheries SWFSC, Kane Cunningham & Colleen Reichmuth of the Institute of Marine Sciences, Long Marine Laboratory, UCSC, NOAA Near Term Priority (2010 & 2011) and NOAA Fisheries Cooperative Research (2012, 2013, & 2014), Albert Little, Wyatt Wullger, Ben Rudolph, & Cody May of Ocean Associates, Dave Caton & Lila Charlton of PSMFC
13 % Fish Survival Numbers of sea lions Survival trend (upper curve) Survival trend (lower curve) /11 3/21 3/31 4/10 4/20 4/30 5/10 5/20 5/30 6/9 6/19 Figure 1. Trends in Survival for PIT-tagged adult Chinook salmon tagged from and from (dashed and solid lines) and the corresponding number of sea lions observed at haul out sites (vertical bars) near Astoria, Oregon (rm 16).
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FISH PASSAGE CENTER 1827 NE 44 th Ave., Suite 240, Portland, OR 97213 Phone: (503) 230-4099 Fax: (503) 230-7559 http://www.fpc.org/ e-mail us at fpcstaff@fpc.org MEMORANDUM TO: Stuart Ellis (CRITFC) FROM: