There are a few bright young brains on the horse racing scene. One of those is the subject of this month s Q&A, Josh Wright.

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2 Welcome There are a few bright young brains on the horse racing scene. One of those is the subject of this month s Q&A, Josh Wright. I've met Josh a couple of times, the most memorable being on a day out at Sandown Park where he backed a 33/1 winner that was running at Aintree! Champagne followed and so the party began. Josh put up that selection on his website for all his followers to bet also. The highlight this month from a potential profit point of view is Rory Delargy's horses to follow for the new jumps season. Rory is one half of the team behind the highly successful Racing Consultants service. Gold members get the full list which is sure to throw up some big winners this winter. (Join OCP Gold Here) Our Little Acorns series has a system for October that should produce some profit to add to the portfolio and the arbitrage column goes back to basics. We have our usual product reviews and tipster tables. And finally the story of the blatant doping that was going on in the 1960'. I hope you enjoy this issue. Happy Punting Darren Power

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4 Q & A with Josh Wright of Racing To Profit This month we have a Q & A with Josh Wright of Josh has recently joined the Betting Insiders team at Betting School as a contributor and takes with him some new and refreshing ideas and thoughts on the racing industry. 1. What or who led you in to the racing world? Where does your interest come from? In 2007, aged 18, I moved up to Liverpool to study. My hometown is not too far from Newmarket but in truth before I became an adopted scouser I had no real interest in racing. It was trips to Aintree that first got me hooked and watching the likes of Monet s Garden in the Old Roan Chase were some of my earliest memories. However my initial foray into betting was very much profit driven. I wanted to win money, and I thought it would be easy. This led me to losing around 2600 on a tipster service in my first year at University. That experience scarred me, as did the dent it left in my student bank accounts for quite some time after. But, that experience was the start of developing a passion for the sport, and it was the slap around the face I needed. From then on I knew I needed to rely on my own ability

5 and to learn about the sport. It is the daily challenge and puzzle that I now enjoy most, rather than a naïve profit driven motive. I appreciate and enjoy the sport first and foremost. This enjoyment is obviously enhanced by being profitable but I look at a race wanting to find the best bet, the winner, and wanting to be proved right rather than thinking about how much I could win. It is a tough sport and you are always learning. 2. Do you think gambling / betting has a place in modern day society and if so what style of betting do you think appeals to the modern day gambler. What are they looking for? Yes. (I don t like the term gambling, as I don t see myself as a gambler- gambling for me implies a lack of skill, a coin toss gambling on horse racing is not the same as gambling on roulette - red or 0 not for me anyway). Betting will always have a place as humans will always be opinionated and want to take a view about a certain event. There are bettors and there are gamblers and everyone is driven by different motives. There are no right or wrongs. My main driver now is trying to solve the puzzle. That is what I get enjoyment from. I like being right. Every horserace is a challenge. Profiting long term from racing is a challenge. I would think most people who read my blog are, like me, recreational punters, who love the sport and relish the daily challenge. I am looking to be entertained and have yet to find any past time as stimulating or as enjoyable as horse racing. 3. The racing industry is often being criticised these days, too many races and poor cards, insufficient prize money to encourage entries etc. Is there anything that you would like to see change within the horse racing industry? Well it would be nice for everyone to get along and all the disparate interests in the sport to come together and find workable solutions to the sports problems. I think, collectively, all those engaged in the sport are aware of, or could reel off, plenty of problems/concerns. Finding solutions appears to be the issue. A general acceptance that at some point decisions will have to be made that will not please everyone, would be a good start, quickly followed by a willingness to make positive change. At times it feels like the sport is sleep walking into oblivion, paralysed by indecision, infighting, and petty squabbles. It is badly lacking in decisive leadership. There are plenty of bright minds in the sport but nothing ever seems to be done. Making positive changes appears to take an age, or not happen at all. Issues with

6 accurate going reports, dwindling field sizes and horse population, a lack of new owners, poor race planning etc. etc. seem to have been around to some degree since I started following the sport. Horse Racing appears to be full of opinionated talkers, but not enough doers. This new bettor s forum is a good start they will come up with plenty of decent and well thought through suggestions to improve the sport let s hope somebody listens and takes timely, positive action. 4. What about within the gambling industry in general? Are there any changes you would like to see there? Gambling, in the crudest sense, can ruin people s lives and many can find themselves losing control. This affects them and society as a whole. Britain at the Bookies brought that home, and specifically the Fixed Odds Betting Terminals. What angers me are the likes of Coral (to name but a few) who will happily restrict me from betting 10 on a horse but will let someone vulnerable blow 2k on one of their machines. I forget the chaps name that lost all that money in a few minutes of madness. He wasn t trying to solve the puzzle. He was ill. He was addicted. The manager could see him losing huge amounts but did nothing for quite some time. That is the bad side of the gambling industry and needs to be addressed. Sometimes intervention is required and those machines, with the levels that vulnerable people are able to pump into them, do not help. When it comes to those machines bookmakers appear to only care about profit, rather than the people using them. 5. What would you consider to be a highlight of your racing experiences to date? Punting wise there have been a few highlights. Finding 33/1 and 50/1 winners always give you a real buzz and I have been lucky to pick out a few. They don t come along very often (for me anyway) so you have to savour them! The likes of Very Wood 50/1 (Chelt 2014),Heavy Metal (50/1) and Oscar Time (33/) were highlights from last year. Wayward Prince winning the Scottish National at 33/1 would be a more recent highlight. The most satisfaction comes from putting them up on my blog and knowing others have backed them. That is a great feeling. In terms of experience at the racetrack, one moment stands out The 2012 Grand National. This race encapsulated everything that is great about the sport and why it is such a thrill.

7 I am yet to pick the winner of the race but this was the closest I have come. I was there, stood in one of the stands with a few friends. One of them had backed Neptune Collonges at 33s. His girlfriend knew someone who worked in Nicholls yard and it is fair to say they were hopeful of a big run. That was enough for my friend to have a good EW bet on him. I am a big user of trends and stats for big races, especially for drawing up a shortlist. I had backed Sunnyhillboy one of a few bets in the race. The rest is history. In a pulsating finish I lost out in a photo by a nose. I was crestfallen, my friend was ecstatic. It was pure drama and a finish that I can still picture now. To rub it in I don t think he even bought a round! It is such excitement that keeps me coming back for more, day after day. 6. What approach to betting do you take yourself? What do you think of staking plans, loss retrieval systems etc.? It is safe to say I am probably a bit too conservative for my own good at times but I am very much a level stakes punter, and content with my approach. I judge myself by my ability to make a profit over time betting 1 point level stakes. While profit is not my main motivator the sport would not be fun if I were consistently losing money. 1 point for me used to be 5 and is now up to 20. As I have become more confident and profits have grown steadily I have been comfortable upping my stakes. I am content with my current approach to betting to the point where losing runs and financial losses do not affect me emotionally. That is the crux for me. I do not want to be in a position where the amount I bet and recent results affects my judgement on races or my enjoyment of the sport. I have no set opinions on staking plans etc. It is all about comfort levels, emotionally and financially. In general I would say that if an approach doesn t work to 1 point level stakes then I wouldn t touch it. But, having said all that, I am not as studious as I should be when it comes to how I bet, and how I could make myself more profitable. That is something I need to improve on. 7. What are your future plans with Anything in the pipeline you can tell us about? I want the blog to be the best source of free information available. My aim from day 1 has always been to provide something of interest and use to help my readers find their

8 own winners, as well as my own opinions. The blog is a mixture or big race previews (trends/stats), micro systems/research, stats and horse profiles. In the last few weeks I have started a Tip of the Day feature. It is a trial but its aim is to provide a shortlist of horses that could go well based on stats. In general these look at trainer track stats, trainer/jockey combos, trainer records with handicap debutants, CD specialists, Pace Horses (likely front runners that could stay there) etc. From there I try and pick one to tip. My final decision making has been questionable to date but it is good fun and the shortlist (normally 3-5 horses) in particular has highlighted plenty of winners. I do relish attacking 3m+ handicap chases so can t wait for the jumping to get going again! My belief in trainer stats as a way in has led me to produce an in-depth guide for the jumps season which I am rather excited about. It details every jumps track and trainer records by handicap hurdle, handicap chase, handicap debutants and trainer/jockey combos. I think it is a must have guide for this jumps season, but I suppose I am biased! You can join my list if you wish and be the first to hear about blog posts etc., as well as more about my new stats guide. Just head to the address below and I will you a free report which includes a few Trainer Track Profiles 8. What interests do you have outside of horse racing? For my sins I am a follower of Liverpool always next year FC. Politics is my other big interest and I am never short of an opinion or two. Other than that I do spend a lot of time thinking about racing once you have the bug, outside of spending time with friends and family I struggle to find time for much else. I also like a good bottle of red wine, but what I actually know about wine you could write on a postage stamp. Although I am a Suffolk boy a large chunk of my heart is in Liverpool and, having moved away a year ago, I am itching to head back. Josh Wright

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10 Six Autumn Jumpers To Follow Most lists of horses to follow for the jumps season tend to focus on the stars of the show, those beasts who are expected to get top billing at the Cheltenham Festival in March, but there s no great mystery in putting up horses who will start at short odds for most of their racecourse outings, and it pays to dig a little deeper to get results. Many lists also tend to focus on the form shown at the big Spring Festivals, but the season isn t just about Cheltenham and Aintree, and a 7/1 winner in October pays just as well as one in March! Here are a selection of horses who failed to fire, or even make it, to Cheltenham and/or Aintree, but find themselves underrated and/or underweighted as a result: BOONDOOMA (IRE) Trainer: Dr Richard Newland 8-b-g Westerner Kissantell (Broken Hearted) There isn t a better target trainer in the land than Dr Richard Newland, and the Worcestershire-based handler has an interesting prospect for the better handicap chases this season in the shape of Boondooma, who beat a useful sort in Ifandbutwhynot at Haydock in December, having pushed Melodic Rendezvous hard on his previous outing. Prior to that, this well-proportioned point winner had been noted staying on well on his chase bow at Ascot, and had always given the impression as a hurdler that he would be seen in an even better light over larger obstacles.

11 The son of Westerner is a half-brother to BetBright Chase winner Rocky Creek as well as the ill-fated but hugely talented Tell Massini, and his pedigree suggests he will stay well, so he deserves plenty of credit for what he s achieved at around two miles as a chaser. His absence since December will deter some, but I believe that Dr Newland simply believes he has a horse who can win a big handicap off his current mark of 147, and has plotted his second season accordingly. He s liable to start off over hurdles in the next few weeks with a view to preserving his mark for the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November. He s currently under the radar given his absence, and punters and oddsmakers alike are inclined to ignore him when analysing that race, so it should pay to take the best ante-post price available in the days after the entries are first published. ANDY KELLY (IRE) Trainer: Emma Lavelle 6-ch-g Flemensfirth - Fae Taylor (Desert Style) Emma Lavelle is a frustrating trainer to follow, as so many of her youngsters impress in appearance before winning in bumpers/over hurdles, only to fail to fulfil their potential at the job they appear bred for. As such, it s best to take a short-term view about many of her horses, as well as focusing on the areas in which she excels. In that respect, I like to see her switch her prospective chasers straight into handicap company, as her record with that approach is particularly profitable. Andy Kelly has always appealed as a staying chaser, and it s to his credit that he did so well initially over hurdles given his physique and pedigree. He proved a disappointment last season, with three runs quite spread out, suggesting he d had an issue or two at home, but the upshot is that he s fallen in the weights, and his OHR of 123 is potentially lenient should he be revived by a summer break. It s worth remembering that he had the likes of Vaniteux behind when runner-up on his sole start in points, and that he s been very lightly raced since winning a maiden hurdle at Stratford a couple of years ago. His best effort, when narrowly beaten by Bygones Sovereign at Ascot looks even better now, with the winner now rated 25 lbs higher, and the pair ten lengths clear of the useful Kilmurvy. It goes without saying that he d look a certainty over hurdles if refinding that form, but it s as a novice chaser that he s expected to make a bigger splash, and he should be able to utilise that hurdles mark in his new discipline if placed accordingly. Gold members can get the rest of Rory's horses in the Gold edition PDF In the members area. You can subscribe to On Course Profits Gold for less than 1.70 per month - Click Here

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13 Creatures Of Habit There is no doubt that trainers are creatures of habit, barring a major disruption such as a virus in the yard trainers will tend to follow a similar pattern in bringing their horses to their races year in and year out. If we bear this in mind we can potentially produce a method in which we can ascertain those trainers who will aim to bring their runners to peak form at certain times of the year, with their main aim being to target the large meetings and festivals. These days the National Hunt season runs all year round, including through the summer months, with the races being mainly aimed at those flat bred types of horses which can generally cope with the faster conditions that summer brings. October onwards you will start to see the larger yards start to map out their racing campaigns for the coming true National Hunt season which runs through the winter months and which cumulates with the pinnacle that is the Cheltenham Festival and the Aintree Grand National. One trainer who is generally fit and raring to go at the start of the season though is Nigel Twiston-Davies and for that we are going to focus on him for this month s method.

14 For anyone who isn t familiar with him we will give you a quick resume of his career to date including some of his major achievements. Based at Grange Hill Farm in Naughton near the National Hunt headquarters of Cheltenham, Gloucestershire Twiston-Davies has been one of the leading jumps trainers for a number of years. He is experienced both in and out of the saddle and he is the only current trainer to have won the Grand National on more than one occasion, and he has won all five races over the national fences at Aintree. His location will no doubt mean that it is no surprise that he coverts victory at his local track and one very memorable day back in 2010 at the Cheltenham Festival he managed wins on three successive days winning the Christie s Foxhunter Chase, the Jonny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Handicap Chase and the Gold Cup. Racing is in the family s blood. His two sons Sam and Willie are both now top flight jockeys with Sam Twiston-Davies now the retained jockey of eight time British jump racing Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. At the age of 17 Sam won the Christie s Foxhunter Chase on Baby Run whilst Willie was also aboard the same horse when he became the youngest jockey, aged at just 16, to win the Foxhunter Chase. The yard s facilities boast not one but two all-weather gallops, two horse walkers and an equine pool providing an excellent combination of facilities for those horses which are returning from injury, or starting out on the fitness road. Additionally there are five flights of hurdles and schooling fences on the uphill grass gallops. The outdoor school is used for grid work and practice over the baby obstacles, the stepping stones before the horses graduate to full schooling on the gallops. Twiston-Davies has a solid reputation for being able to turn out tough, fit, racehorses ideal for the start of the main jumps season where the races are run on the more tradition National Hunt going of good to soft or softer. The table below shows the top level performance of all of the yards runners over the jumps during October for the last 4 seasons.

15 * The profit or loss based on placing a 1 level stake on each runner at the returned industry Starting Price. If we go back even further we can see that blindly backing Nigel Twiston-Davies s runners during the month of October would have produced a profit in 7 of the last 10 years. We also have to consider though that the yard s runners very often will attract market support and it is therefore reasonable to assume that the two years of marginal losses could easily have turned a profit by taking early prices, best odds guaranteed or possible even using the Betfair Starting Prices. Taking a closer look at these figures and splitting the results out over the various race types over the last four seasons it is clear to see that the National Hunt Flat races should be avoided. This isn t where the profits lie.

16 Ignoring NHF races would clearly have improved our profits for the period we are looking at. In fact the NHF entries for the full period would have resulted in a loss of just less than 25 points. So we have excluded the National Hunt Flat races but is there any significant difference in the profits between Handicap and Non Handicap races? Both race types are profitable but the Return on Investment for Non-Handicaps is % in recent years as opposed to 4.40% for those runners in Handicaps. As mentioned previously the Nigel Twiston-Davies runners very often will attract market support and so it is worth noting how these runners fare based on Starting Prices. Although one winner, Nikola, which won a Veterans Handicap Chase at Aintree in 2011 did go off at 14/1 there were a further 36 selections which lost when returning a Starting Price of 14/1 or greater.

17 This gives a good indication that the market can be a positive aid in determining whether a Twiston-Davies runner has a realistically solid chance of running well or not. One further point of note is that we have never been keen on backing those horses which are odds on. The above results may be a small sample size but they too seem to bear this out and therefore we would choose to ignore these runners. If we build in the pricing thresholds to our horseracebase selection criteria by eliminating all runners which were odds on and all those runners which were priced at 14/1 or greater the following shows our results. The profit compares favourably with our original profit based on backing all selections irrespective of starting price. It is important though to bear in mind that although the figures we are quoting appear to be on the small side these profits are based on a very simple 1.00 level stake. We would assume that most regular gamblers would bet probably in the region of per selection. Can we glean anything from splitting the races between both Chases and Hurdles? Our split shows that the Hurdle races give a 24% Return On Investment with a smaller 6.8% ROI for Chase races. So, finally what do we have? After delving and playing with criteria and figures is there anything news worthy in amongst all these tables and numbers? Summary As we have mentioned before with this kind of analysis and looking back using databases such as horseracebase we have to be careful that we are not guilty of back fitting too much. It is very easy to manipulate statistics and figures so that read as we would like them to but quite often this often results in the method failing any kind of common sense check.

18 With this in mind we have detailed below the final criteria and the proof of results will be in what happens over this month of October. We will report back for all to see. Criteria for the selection process. Back Nigel Twiston-Davies Runners in the month of October when the following criteria are matched. Race Type Non Handicaps Runner Type Chasers and Hurdlers Pricing When odds are between Evens and 12/1 inclusive. Over the last five years you would have averaged 8 points profit from an average of 3 bets a week. (In fact in the last 10 years there has been on one losing year with a loss of 6 points). Admittedly any profits are not going to be a fortune but they will be a handy add on to our Acorn Principle which we have featured in earlier Issues. Acorn Principle Update Things have been pretty quiet so far. Just 5 selections to date (14th September) from our small field angle with one winner, Heartsong as 6/4F. It s still early days and hopefully this new trainer angle will bring in a reward or two for our patient efforts.

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20 Product Reviews Welcome Back We have four new services which have come under review this month and although it is early days a couple are showing promise. Big Race Bookie Busters It is early days with this service but at the moment it looks like we are the ones which are being busted! Putting up 1-3 selections every day and predominantly each way mid-priced bets we have had 3 winners and 8 placed horses from a total of 41 bets and we are currently standing at a loss of just over 46 points. Okay it is early days and so we won t pass judgement yet but this has not been the best of starts.

21 Currently offering a 30 day 1.00 trial (normally per month) you can find out more by here. Master Racing Tipster This is another service whose review is in its early days and so far from 39 selections we have had 8 winners and we are showing just a small loss of 3.50 points. Selections are sent out the previous evening for the next day s racing but we have had difficulty matching the advised prices so you need to be quick of the mark once the selections come through. We ll see what next month can bring. If you would like to find out more about Master Racing Tipster - Click Here. Precision Sports Bets We are just a couple of weeks in to reviewing Precision Sports Bets which comes from Sportsworld Publishing. The service covers a number of different sports but as yet the bulk of the selections have come from horse racing and we are showing a modest profit of 3.50 points. Hopefully we will have more positive news to report next month. Find out more about Precision Sports Bets - Click Here

22 Soccer Goals Syndrome We will shortly be starting our review of Steve Davidson s latest football system which promises a profitable return for just 15 minutes of your time every a week. The service uses pre match prices found on Oddschecker and then backing them with the bookmakers. You can read more here Updates Bet Alchemist Things haven t really picked up for Bet Alchemist with the latest month producing a further negative of over 14.5 points. Our cumulative loss over the 7 month period we have been reviewing amounts to just under 32 points. Once we add in our subscription costs of per month then we really are unable to talk up a good picture we are afraid. Based on our results over the period of review we cannot recommend Bet Alchemist. In The Know Racing The profit for ITK for the month of August has been excellent with a total points profit for the month of over 80 points.

23 The service is relatively expensive at including VAT every 28 days but we cannot fault the results with a win strike rate of 26% and a return on investment of 27%. Over a three month period there were 86 selections which clearly demonstrate a selective approach and would suggest that they do have knowledge that maybe others don t. This service would therefore suit the bigger gamblers among you who are happy to place larger stakes to cover the subscription costs while making a healthy profit. Well worth considering. Find out more about the service Click Here Fold 4 Gold You may remember that we mentioned last month that this service requires nerves of steel. It s possibly the biggest rollercoaster you will ever ride. Well the service lost a further 18 points up to the middle of August and the end of our three month review period and our overall loss was just less than 25 points which had been significantly bolstered by the 130+ points we mentioned last month. If you are a thrill seeker then this may well appeal to you but make sure you have a healthy sized betting bank to cope with the losing runs. Find out more about Fold4Gold Click Here Profit At The Races We have come to the end of our review on this All Weather service.

24 During August there were a total of 57 selections in the month which ran in 45 races over 16 days, so averaging 3-4 selections a day. Just 5 of these selections won with the highest priced winner at BSP and the lowest priced at Our longest losing run was 23 bets and in one race we had four selections in an eight runner race, not one of which won. At the end of three months we are standing with a total loss of 44 points. Based on these results we would say this is one to avoid. Find out more about Profit At The Races Click Here Stallion Racing The last month of the review of this service has produced 11 selections 3 of which were winners, but the month ended overall with a loss of just less than points. Our cumulative position at the end of the review is a negative to the tune of 57 points. Stallion Racing is not a service we can recommend.

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26 Getting Nobbled October 1963 saw the Daily Sketch report that the biggest doping ring in horse racing history had been broken. This gang involved had no shame and its members were able to brazenly nobble the horses in some of Newmarket s very best racing yards. The gang had no fear when targeting the best horses in training, including those who were to be potential Derby winners. Shortly after midnight on 31st March 1960 a car made its way quietly from the Carlton Hotel in Newmarket to the clock tower on Moulton Road. Inside the car, a Ford Zodiac, were six men, four of which were stable lads from various yards around the area. These six men were involved in the biggest horse doping scandal to hit racing and which was masterminded by a bookmaker and gambler, Bill Roper. That evening in March the team had picked upon the stable of Jack Waugh at Heath House in Newmarket and to target a two year old in training there named Treasure Hunt. Treasure Hunt had won his last race with ease and he was a horse which bookies, gamblers and the racing correspondents were keen to be on next time out when he was due to race on 1st April.

27 The dopers that evening were Kenny Santus, Michael Heffernan, Jack Stiles and Darkie Steward. Using methyl amphetamine they forced it down Treasure Hunts throat unbeknown to anyone else. At the race the next day at Windsor Treasure Hunt was set off as the red hot favourite but to the surprise of all involved with the horse he could only manage to finish in 10th place. During this time there were no official doping tests or steward s inquiries after a race so the crooks laughed all the way to the bank as Roper had cashed in by knowing that Treasure Hunt couldn t win but Treasure Hunt wasn t the only horse which was targeted that Spring. The saboteurs were confident enough to nobble the very best that Newmarket had to offer at that time. Phillip Snuffy Lawler was a stable lad working at Warren Place which back in those days was the stable of Noel Murless then Father-in- Law of Sir Henry Cecil. Murless had the 1957 Oaks winner Carrozza for the Queen at the yard but just two years later Lawler had been recruited as a doper and by 1961 had doped numerous horses with Murless unaware. Murless couldn t believe that the lad who he trusted completely would have had any involvement in doping even though rumours abounded in the town at the time, and he continued to disbelieve the rumours so much so that for the 1960 Derby he had Lawler looking after the Derby favourite, St Paddy. Lawler had been approached on three separate occasions by the doping team who tried to convince him to dope the Sir Victor Sassoon s colt, before the Dante at York, on the eve of the Derby and before the St Leger, but despite having been offered in the region of in today s money he continued to refuse to be involved.maybe it was for the glory of the thought of being able to lead in a Derby winner, who knows. Eventually though, within a year, Lawler played a pivotal role in the most famous doping incident of them all. Pinturischio or Pint of Sherry as he was referred to by the bookmakers. He was thought to be the next big thing to come out of the Warren Place yard. Pinturischio was also owned by Sir Victor Sassoon and the horse was the son of Pinza the 1953 Derby winner. Due to an outbreak of coughing at the yard Pinturischio s racing debut had been delayed, but when he did finally hit the tracks on 13th April 1961 with Lester Piggott on board he won the Wood Ditton Stakes at Newmarket easily and against other well thought of horses too at odds of 2/5.

28 His next run was in the 2000 Guineas as the 7/4 favourite that year but he could only manage to finish fourth with the placed runners all priced as outsiders, the first and second placed horses being priced at 66/1. The trainer, Murless, had mentioned beforehand that there was a chance that the going and distance may not suit the horse and he was still buoyant with confidence that the Derby was a race to be won by Pinturischio. The horse put in a brilliant gallop on 13th May at the yard and was due to race on 16th May at York in the Dante Stakes, a recognised Derby trial but when it came to the race he was indisposed and his odds for the Derby went out to 9/1 from favourite at 5/1. He made a recovery and resumed work on the gallops but towards the end of the month Murless said there had been a further relapse and that the horse would not be running. A couple of days later the horse picked up again but having watched him exercise the trainer announced that he would definitely be scratched from the race. The horse had been doped by Lawler and the gang by using croton oil, one of the most powerful laxatives known to man. What had in fact happened is that the gang doped him not once but twice. After the first dose the signs of recovery he showed meant that the gang felt the need to dope him a second time with the combination of the two doses almost killing the colt. He was never to race again. The whole doping process was only made possible by the stable lad Lawler being involved and it was a shocking act given the ultimate consequences for the horse. Lawler had been bribed to the tune of 600, approximately in today s money. No one was ever charged in connection with the doping of Pinturischio but he was just one of many horses which were victims of the doping gang run by Roper. What was going on eventually came to the attention of the authorities when an attempt was made to dope a horse at the stables of the Queen Mother s trainer, Major Peter Cazalet. Back in the 60 s the Jockey Clubs track record on doping was highly unreliable. They were accusing respectable trainers including Vincent O Brien of doping when they had done nothing and doped horses were going undetected. Eventually things all came to a head when the Duke of Norfolk, a former senior steward of the Jockey Club announced that two of his horses had been nobbled which he had, had confirmed by a private testing of the horses involved.

29 It was only as a result of his involvement that the Jockey Club got its act together to introduce a new testing regime, but it had come too late for Pinturischio. The plan went something like this The ring leader of the doping gang, Roper, would have his mistress, Swiss born Micheline Lugeon pull up at a yard in a chauffeur driven car posing as a French racehorse owner and express an interest in placing her horses at the yard being targeted. Security at the yards in those days was lax and so she would be shown around the facilities with Roper following behind taking note of the lay out of the yard etc. They would then look to bribe stable lads to administer the laxatives, if unsuccessful in finding a willing participant the gang themselves would break in to the yard at night and deliver the dose. They only ever targeted well fancied horses, and usually when they were running in small fields. Once the deed was done bets would be placed on the other horses in the race. When the story did finally break trainers started talking and recognised a similar pattern of events had occurred at their stables. Fred Rimell said that the femme fatale had been shown around his stables just before the 1961 Grand National and had taken notice of a grey horse. Not long after he saw her at a racecourse with people he knew to be of a dubious nature so he moved the grey horse elsewhere and installed a ringer in its place. Low and behold the ringer was doped, the dopers were duped, and the horse, Nicolaus Silver went on to win its race. Eventually though as is often the case the doping gang overreached themselves, and got themselves caught. In August 1962 there was a three runner race at Lewes. Countess priced at 4/11, Lucky Seven priced at 11/4 and the rank outsider Dear Joe was priced up at 20/1. Countess was trained by Dick Thrale at Downs House in Epsom and finished the race plum last looking half asleep! A Sporting Life journalist used his contacts in the bookmaking world and found that the man who had been backing the other two horses was Bill Roper, someone he knew to be a shady character.

30 The Jockey Club took quite a while to act on the information which was passed to them, but finally in October 1963 Roper, Lugeon and the others went on trial at Lews Assizes. The Pinturischio affair was never brought up in court, apparently as a result of a deal which was brokered with Snuffy Lawler who turned Queen s Evidence to tell of his refusal to dope St Paddy prior to the Derby in Following a long trial all parties were found guilty. Roper receiving a three year prison sentence and Lugeon a one year sentence. The Scotland Yard investigations concluded that the equivalent of 3.6million had been won by the bookies as a result of the doping ring. Pinturischio s withdrawal from the Derby left that year wide open and one horse, Psidium (meaning Guava flower) had an advantage with a veteran experienced jockey on board in the Frenchman Roger Poincelet. Psidium had only finished 18th of 22 runners in the 2000 Guinea s that year and so went into the Derby as a 66/1 shot. Just occasionally though that big priced outsider finally has their moment of glory and this was to be Psidium s day. The Derby course is shaped like a horseshoe and 1.5 miles long with the first half a mile being run uphill, then there is a downhill run to Tattenham Corner on a tight bend. The course continues downhill and then a furlong from the winning post the courses rises again and this is all run in under 3 minutes. Psidium was left standing at the start, though the jockey said that he had done this to stay out of trouble, and he was the last horse of the 28 runners at they reached the top of the hill and well adrift of the field as they reached Tattenham Corner. Poincelet though knew what he was doing. He worked Psidium around the outside and finally tucked him in just behind the leading pack which was busy fighting it out amongst themselves. Then, just 150 yards from the finishing line Poincelet pounced! He urged Psidium into an amazing burst of speed and they came home two lengths clear of the field as the winner. The then racing correspondent for The Times commented that Psidium was the best horse in the field, mmmmm easy to say after the event as they certainly weren t building the horse up before the off! With the wonder of the internet you can watch the 1961 Derby and Psidum s victory courtesy of British Pathe.

31 Psidium is Number 23 in the pale blue with red spots. The footage isn t that clear so they are not too easy to pick out but you can certainly see them fly at the end! Sadly soon after his victory Psidium was injured and he never raced again, though he did go on to be a successful sire. The full story of the doping ring can be read in the book 'Doped' by Jamie Reid (paperback edition published 2014).

32 Profiting from lay betting and managing your bank. In the past we have made the assumption that as readers you know what we are talking about when we come out with betting terms such as laying but we thought it may be worth looking at the term in more depth this month, for example what to look for, and more importantly how to make a profit. Laying a bet as a gambler is when you are acting as the bookmaker, and when laying on the betting exchanges such as Betfair you accept a bet from another person. If their bet wins you pay out their winnings, if their bet loses you keep the punters money (less any exchange commissions). That all sounds very simple doesn t it, so we can now all rush out and become budding bookmakers overnight and make our fortunes. Oh if only it WAS that simple. The major bookmakers employ a multitude of minions to compile their odds, each one usually a specialist in a particular sporting area, be it football, tennis, darts, reality TV you name it, and that man or woman will be the master or mistress of their sport or event.

33 But even with the masses of information and experience the professionals have to hand many of them have gone broke or disappeared having been swallowed up by larger and more competitive firms. It is only the very largest and best bookmakers which will survive in an ever more difficult market. You are therefore unlikely to make any more money over the long term laying than you are backing. Both are equally as difficult to turn a profit from. And there we have it; the bottom line will always be about making a profit and protecting that hard earned betting bank. Let s say that you enjoy a flutter and regularly stake on a bet. You decide to follow a system which suggests that you will need a 100 point bank. You would need 1000 sitting in an account that you can afford to risk on your staking. Do you have that amount of money sitting spare you can afford to lose? Maybe you should start small and look to grow your bank? Maybe you should also look to review your betting strategy and betting bank at regular intervals?

34 We are sure that most of us don t think about where we place any profits we make. Most of us undoubtedly lump any profits or losses in the same pot as our original betting bank without considering how much we are even staking for that matter. This can mean that win or lose any profits we do gain are always being placed at risk. We need to review our strategies and staking regularly. With our 100 point bank at per point some will say that you should look to reevaluate your staking at intervals (or at a 5% deviation from your original betting bank). If you win (5 successful lay bets not accounting for commissions), you can increase your staking slightly and recalculate your bet stake given the extra now in your betting account. Equally you can adjust your staking down if you are on a currently standing at a loss. An alternative approach, and one some of us consider to be more prudent, is to look to take your profits when they reach a level you can do something with and enjoy them rather than keep on blindly trying to grow a bank further by adding more and more profit. Don t let greed take control because you can guarantee you will hit a losing run and the next thing you know your bank will be in a negative before you get chance to enjoy those profits you once had. Betting is linked to ups and downs, everyone experiences the same ride, some may be on a rollercoaster some may be on a kiddies seesaw but ups and downs are guaranteed when it comes to gambling.

35 You have to accept this, but if you can take some of the profits on the way it means you can have something to show for your betting and also can feel a little more confident about what you are doing. If you can find a selection system that is based on sound principles and you are prepared to put some work in too there is no reason why you shouldn t treat yourself from your profits along the way. Okay your betting bank isn t going to grow as quickly but at least you are enjoying the rewards along the way. Imagine hitting a massive losing run and seeing all that profit being eroded away, how demoralising would that be? Take a little of the cream off the profits from the top when things are going well and keep your confidence high because losing runs you will hit there is no doubt. If you don t want to spend them put the cream away in a separate account and watch them grow there, safely tucked away elsewhere. Back to the laying before we digress into the realms of betting psychology. Laying on the exchanges can help to add to your profits if you can watch and learn. The exchange markets are highly transparent and you too can view the betting markets as the bookmakers see them. If you are going to be betting on horseracing you need to learn at least a little about how to analyse a race so you need to be able to choose your races selectively and ultimately act on instinct, and be quick to act, in laying your bets. There is a downside to laying which you need to be aware of, you only need one winning selection (i.e. your lay bet to be a loser) and your accrued profits can be wiped out with the pay-out you will need to make to the winning punter. You ll find yourself right back at the start or possibly worse, as laying is a drip feed approach. It is something which many a punter going into the lay market for the first time can find highly demoralising. You have been win, win, winning and then bang! All those profits have gone. You have to have a value approach and if laying is your game that means being able to lay at prices lower than you would be expecting. So, how can you make money laying using the principle of arbitrage? The concept itself is very simple as it means we are looking for that value but on both sides of a bet. Back at as a high a price as possible and lay the same bet off as low as possible and therefore pocket that difference.

36 Betting Exchanges take a commission from any winning bets or lays you make so you really need to find a big price at the bookmakers and ideally a significantly lower price with the Exchange, but remember the bigger the price you are laying at on the Exchanges the greater your liability. If someone wants to bet 100 at 25/1 and you want to lay that bet you will need to have in your Exchange account 2500, can you cover that? Scouring the odds comparison sites can often bring in a few opportunities, but be aware if horse racing is your thing that backing and laying horses in this manner is one way to ensure that your bookmaker accounts will become restricted. They HATE arbitrageurs. The best bets to look for are those which we call outrights. Look at golf or tennis for example. If you can find any bigger prices at the bookmakers than on the exchanges, you can you have a potential moneymaking opportunity. Use our friend,the Oddschecker hedging tool which we have mentioned in previous Issues, to check that what you have found is in fact a true arb, and DON T forget to take into account the Exchange commissions. Ensure that you have the liquidity to cover your lay bet and that you have sufficient leway to lay at a slightly bigger price if necessary. The beauty of golf and tennis championship markets for example is that in general there will always be plenty of liquidity on the Exchange markets. There is little point betting on a little known market and then trying to lay your bet off on the exchanges if there is insufficient money waiting to be matched. Backing a player at (10/1) and laying back at 8.50 will make a profit regardless, but look at as many of the players involved as you can and take care. Some players may appear to offer a good opportunity but once you have taken the commissions into effect you ll find that they are not as profitable as they first seemed. If you can find multiple players to back and lay you may reduce your commission liability overall, and ideally you want to green up. Green up means having a positive green figure showing on your Exchange account for each player in that market. Whoever wins means you will win too, but also be prepared to red up, or maybe we should refer to this as red down.

37 If you turn your market all red, so that you are losing an amount on each player you ll pay no commission, but you will have a winning bet with the bookmaker(s) if you can cover all players / options, as this is where the profit of the arb will come from. Remember with an arb we are looking to cover all possible outcomes of an event. Football arbs are also worth comparing for profits on the back and lay sides with the +0.5 handicap bets (which is the same as backing the opposing team and the draw) as the differences can on occasions be significant and every extra 1 can add up. It is also possible to back and lay between the various exchanges but remember again the commissions will need taking into account in your calculations. You also have the option of laying in running and this can be a very nice earner. You may have placed an arb before the event started but then decide that you fancy a little flutter just for fun. You can lay a selection that you really don t fancy to win the event to the tune of your potential profit based on the current arb in play. This is the same as backing the option you think WILL win) and watch the match safe in the knowledge that at worst you are going to break even or even better make a larger profit. Okay it is not strictly arbitrage trading but it is well known that the big teams in English footballs Premier League can and often do shorten in price shortly before kick-off as the Saturday punters money comes flooding in. There is a valid argument for following tipsters in the racing and football press, but you have to get in early. Place your bet and then wait as the prices shorten as everyone else jumps on the bandwagon and then you can lay back for a profit. You can lay the draw in football matches too. Take an early price on the draw at big odds and then wait until the match goes in running. The longer you wait the greater the profit but don t be too greedy as you can guarantee that goal will be scored just as you are about to lay your bet. There is varied opinion about which months of the year offer the best arbitrage opportunities. You can potentially sit infront of the pc all day and not make a penny and then on another day make 100 in 30 seconds. It s all about being in the right place at the right time. One thing we can promise and that is that the level of rewards is directly related to the amount of time you are prepared to put in.

38 Top Ten Tipsters Our On Course Top Ten looks to search out those services which over the past three months have actively produced either, a good strike rate and modest profit or a good rate of return with a lower strike rate, ideally both. If your gambling style is risk averse, and you are someone who struggles to handle the losing runs, then search for a Tipster who is providing a good strike rate with a reasonable ROI (Return on Investment). That way you can look to earn steady profits and stand less chance of suffering long losing runs. If you are a high risk taker and happy to wait out those long losing runs then you can look to those Tipsters who may have a considerably lower strike rate, but who tip those larger priced winners which often give a greater ROI overall. All of our top ten services are collated based on their performance over a three month period recorded at level stakes and Best Odds Guaranteed. If you are new to betting and have time to shop around then you should certainly look to make the most of the Best Odds Guaranteed prices.