Evaluation of the Effects of Summer Operation of the Suisun Marsh Salinity Control Gates (SMSCG) on Delta Water Quality
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1 Evaluation of the Effects of Summer Operation of the Suisun Marsh Salinity Control Gates (SMSCG) on Delta Water Quality Yu (Joey) Zhou, Kevin He, Eli Ateljevich, Nicky Sandhu Bay-Delta Office/California Department of Water Resources (DWR BDO) April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 1/20
2 Acknowledgement DWR Bay-Delta Office Bob Suits, Lan Liang, Ines Ferreira DWR Division of Operations and Maintenance Michal Koller, Ted Sommer DWR Division of Operations and Maintenance Siqing Liu, Bryant Giorgi, Dan Yamanaka AnchorQEA Michael MacWilliams, Aaron Bever April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 2/20
3 Introduction: Suisun Marsh ebb SMSCG flood Known hot spot for Delta Smelt Major restoration projects planned Complex habitat Tidally impacted April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 3/20
4 Introduction Suisun Marsh Salinity Control Gate (SMSCG) Downstream Flood Ebb 1 flashboard / 3 radial gates/ 1 boat lock; typical Operation: Oct - May Ebb Tide: Gates Open Freshwater pushed towards Suisun Marsh (downstream) Net flow downstream 2-3k cfs Flood Tide: Gates Closed Freshwater can t get pushed back out of marsh April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 4/20
5 Introduction Motivation Reduce salinity & improve Suisun marsh habitat Action Delta Smelt Resiliency Strategy Proposed action #4 Re-operate SMSCG in summer of Above Normal (AN) or Below Normal (BN) years 2018 summer (August) pilot experiment Objective/scope of this study Inform the pilot experiment via DSM2 modeling Validate historical modeling performance & water quality (WQ) compliance Set up a forecast model impacts of gate operation (Aug. 2018) on salinity water cost analysis to comply with WQ standards at key locations April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 5/20
6 Method Modeling scenarios Historical modeling for representative years 2005 (AN), 2012 (BN) Forecast modeling for 2018 (BN) Scenario 1: Baseline open (no operation in August) Scenario 2: Re-op SMSCG (all 3 gates) operation in August Scenario 3: Re-op (1 st half): SMSCG operation in 1 st half of August Scenario 4: Re- op (2 nd half) : SMSCG operation in 2 nd half of August Additional Scenarios: repeat scenarios 2-4 assuming 2 gates in operation April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 6/20
7 Method Water Quality Standards D1641 Objective at Jersey Point (April 1 August 15) Guidance standard at Jersey Point: 1.64 mmhos/cm year around Collinsville, Fall X2 (for AN and Wet years, not active for BN) April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 7/20
8 Results: Historical DSM2 Historical Validation WQ control stations no data 0.89 National Steel Emmaton Collinsville Jersey Rock Slough Year 2005 Jul-Oct Year 2012 Jul-Oct Operation period Non-operation period Table shows the correlation (r 2 ) of daily-average EC between CDEC and DSM2 April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 8/20
9 Results: Historical 14-day Running Ave EC [mmhos/cm] Over-simulates the EC Gate operation in August increases peak EC < 10% not exceed D1641 standard Observed and Simulated EC versus D1641 WQ Objective at Emmaton in 2012 (BN) Observed D1641 Objective DSM2 Baseline DSM2 Re-op 0 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 10/31 Date April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 9/20
10 Results: Historical 14-day Running Ave EC [mmhos/cm] Over-simulates the EC Observed and Simulated EC versus D1641 WQ Objective at Jersey Point in 2012 (BN) 2.5 Observed D1641 Objective Guidance Standard 2 DSM2 Baseline DSM2 Re-op 0 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 10/31 Date Gate operation in August increases peak EC at ~14% exceeds D1641 and the guidance standard April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 10/20
11 Results: Historical show consistent up-down trend and similar range for net flow & EC represent MTZSL gate-operating pattern, with downstream net flow elevated and EC lowered smoother trend for non-operating period; under-estimates the net flow about cfs for gate-operation period April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 11/20
12 Method 2018 Forecast Model Objective: provides flow and salinity forecast up to the end of 2018 Configuration: Hydrology based on O&M 2018 forecast (BN for now) Boundary inflows, Delivery, DICU Monthly->daily with conservative spline Martinez downstream boundary astronomical stage forecast Delta Structures based on forecast from all stakeholder agencies Historical reference of previous similar water years Water Quality (EC) generated from in-house planning/forecast scripts Martinez EC generator, San Joaquin regression April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 12/20
13 Results: Forecast 14-day Running Ave EC [mmhos/cm] Simulated EC versus D1641 WQ Objective at Jersey Point in 2018 (assuming BN) D1641 Objective DSM2 Baseline DSM2 Re-op (August) DSM2 Re-op (1st Half August) DSM2 Re-op (2nd Half August) Guidance Standard Operations required to meet D1641 and Guidance Standards 0 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 10/31 Date Re-op in August: 5.0% increase in peak (versus baseline) Re-op in 1st half of August: 1.2% increase Re-op in 2nd half of August: 3.6 % increase April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 13/20
14 Method Water Cost Analysis Constrained Optimization Minimize flows that meets Water Quality and Flow standards (D-1641 and others) Linear Approximation (COBYLA) Mild regularization to keep solutions are in the Calibration zone Operation 1 Operation 2 Why using this tool Well-defined definition of water cost Results close to realistic operation pattern April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 14/20
15 Results: Water Cost Water Cost Optimization for Baseline Scenario April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 15/20
16 Results: Water Cost Water Cost Optimization for All Scenarios 14-day Running Ave EC [mmhos/cm] D1641 Objective DSM2 Re-op (August: Water Cost) DSM2 Re-op (1st Half August: Water Cost) DSM2 Re-op (2nd Half August: Water Cost) Guidance Standard j y ( g ) p g 0.4 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 10/31 Date April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 16/20
17 Results: Water Cost Net Delta Outflow for All Scenarios Water cost Difference from base Average flow (cfs) 105 days volume (taf) Re-op Re-op Re-op Volume (taf) is calculated in period 7/5-10/17 April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 17/20
18 Results: Gate Efficiency Differences small for 2-gates versus 3-gates operation Re-operation period Mean NSL Flow (cfs) 3 gates open 2 gates open Flow efficiency August ,010 1, % August ,038 1, % August ,044 1, % 1st Half of August 2018* 2nd Half of August 2018* 2,041 1, % 1,981 1, % *semi-monthly average flow at NSL; other flows in monthly average in August. April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 18/20
19 Summary The impact of SMSCG Re-operation on water quality of Delta area in Below Normal years is limited given equal flow. The water cost of compliance is small, roughly TAF The 1 st or 2 nd half-month operation scenarios have about half the water cost. April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 19/20
20 Next Steps Next Steps Update as necessary according to hydrology forecast 2018 August pilot study provides field data Modeling above normal (AN) years constraints like Collinsville etc Incorporate in CalSIM for system-wide study over varied hydrology April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 20/20
21 Questions? April 4, CWEMF Annual Meeting 21/20
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