Fifth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models. 31 May - 11 June, 2010
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1 Fifth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models 31 May - 11 June, 2010 Validation of a high resolution version of the RegCM over the Carpathian basin and analysis of transient climate change simulations. TORMA Csaba Zsolt and Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Barcza Z., Coppola E., Giorgi F. Eotvos Lorand University, Department of Meteorology Pazmany P. Setany 1/A, H-1117 Budapest HUNGARY
2 Validation of a high resolution version of the RegCM over the Carpathian Basin and analysis of transient climate change simulations Csaba Torma, Judit Bartholy, Rita Pongrácz, Zoltán Barcza, Erika Coppola, Filippo Giorgi
3 Outline Testing phase Validation A1B future simulation ( and ) Summary Future plans
4 Testing phase Model settings Resolution Central grid Map projection Number of grid points 10km, 20km, 25km, 45km, 50km 47.5N, 18.5 E Lambert 200x100, 140x120, 120x100, 100x80, 94x72, 90x70 ICBC NNRP1 és NNRP2 (2.5 o ), ERA40 (2.5 o, 1 o ) Convective schemes: Grell (FC80), Grell (AS74), Kuo, Emanuel Number of vertical levels 14,18,23
5 Testing phase Field of interest
6 Testing phase λ ur = o ϕ ur = o λ c = 18.5 o ϕ c = 47.5 o λ lb = o ϕ lb = o
7 CRUTS1.2 Grell(FC80), 18 Nest) 1961 june Grell(FC80), 23 Grell(FC80), 18 Grell(FC80), 14 Emanuel, 23 Emanuel, 18 Emanuel, 14
8 Testing phase Multi-year bias fields Autumn Spring Winter Summer
9 Testing phase RegCM3 RegCM Beta Driving field ERA40 ERA40 Number of grid points Number of vertical levels Spin up 1 year 1 year Integration time Time step 90 s 90 s Cloud-to-rain autoconversion rate Raindrop evaporation rate coefficient (kg m -2 s -1 ) -1/2 s (kg m -2 s -1 ) -1/2 s -1 Raindrop accretion rate 6 m 3 /kg/ s 3 m 3/ kg/ s
10 Testing phase Temperature bias ( C) RegCM3 RegCM Beta -1.5 Precipitation bias (%) RegCM3 RegCM Beta Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn 0 Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn
11 Validation 120x100 λ c = 18.5 o ϕ c = 47.5 o
12 Validation ERA40 E-OBS CRU Autumn Summer Winter Spring
13 ERA40 CRU Winter Validation E-OBS Autumn Summer Spring
14 Validation RegCM RegCM RegCM RegCM (ERA) (ERA) (ERA) (ERA) Temperature (C) Precipitation (%) Temperature (C) Precipitation (%) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Winter Spring Summer Autumn CRU E-OBS
15 Validation Lon: Lat:
16 Validation Time series of area-averaged monthly precipitation RegCM CRU Year mm/day
17 Validation Time series of area-averaged monthly precipitation Precipitation Bias ( ) Year Bias [%]
18 Validation Dry spell (5 consecutive days < 1mm/day) Spring Autumn Summer Winter
19 Validation Wet spell (5 consecutive days > 1mm/day) Spring Autumn Summer Winter
20 Validation Budapest lon=19 o lat=47.5 o Station data comparisons (Budapest, Debrecen) Debrecen lon=21.6 o lat=47.5 o
21 a, 6 4 Validation Deviations from the mean annual cycle of temperature, Budapest ( ) RegCM Station Temperature ( o C) ~ -1 o C Ye ar ~ 0,5 o C b, Temperature ( o C) Deviations from the mean annual cycle of temperature, Debrecen ( ) RegCM Station Ye ar
22 Validation a, Precipitation, Budapest ( ) RegCM Station Precipitation ( mm/month) Year 1980 b, Precipitation, Debrecen ( ) Precipitation ( mm/month) RegCM Station Year
23 Validation
24 Validation
25 A1B future simulation ( and ) Expected change of average temperature (A1B) Temperature (Celsius)
26 A1B future simulation ( and ) ~ 0.8 o C Spring change ~ 2.6 o C Autumn Summer Winter
27 A1B future simulation ( and ) November October December January February March April September August July June May ( )-( ) ( )-( )
28 A1B future simulation ( and ) ,5% Winter +8% -10% -2% Spring Summer change -5% -18% -4% Autumn +5%
29 Summary - Wide range of test runs (domain, schemes, vertical levels ) - RegCM Beta reproduces well the observed surface air temperature, from climatology to interannual and decadal scales (except winter) - RegCM Beta tends to overestimate precipitation - The modell is able to reproduce the interannual variability of precipitation and dry/wet spells as well - On local scale, RegCM Beta shows good agreement with station data - Warmer and drier summers, and warmer but wetter winters can be expected in far future (Hungary)
30 Future plans - Mini ensembeles cooperating with the Hungarian Meteorological Service (4 regional models: Aladin, REMO, PRECIS, RegCM)
31 Thank you for your attention! Grazie per la attenzione! Köszönöm a figyelmet!
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