Aspects and Case Studies of the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources. Part II (Case Studies)
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1 Aspects and Case Studies of the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources Part II (Case Studies) Manfred Koch Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology, University of Kassel, Germany Haramaya University, Ethiopia, March 16, 2012
2 Overview 1. WATER RESOURCES IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE 1.1 Climate change: Observations and predictions 1.2 Climate change: Hydrological impacts 1.3 Climate change: Groundwater resources sustainability 2. SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF SURFACE - AND GROUNDWATER RESERVOIRS 2.1 Basics of water budget analysis and implications on sustainable water management 2.2 Scales and variability of climate and hydrological systems 3. MODELING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE- AND GROUNDWATER 3.1 General issues related to hydro-climate modeling 3.2 From global to local scale: downscaling from the climate to the hydrological model. CONCLUSIONS /PART I CASE STUDIES /PART II 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River/ Ethiopia 4.2 Omo River / Ethiopia 4.3 Thailand / Rayong Province 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru 4.5 Fulda catchment /Germany
3 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
5 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
6 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
7 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
8 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
9 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
10 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
11 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
12 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
13 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
14 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
15 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
16 4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum
17 4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum
18 4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum
19 4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum Objectives of research (1) Main objectives model cascade dams & reservoirs operation in the Omo river basin for optimal water use. network cascade dams & reservoirs, using the HEC-ResSim model. (2) Specific objectives simulate runoff & inflow to reservoirs in the Omo river basin with theswat model. develop & recommend optimal dam & reservoir operation rule curves for cascade dams & reservoirs. evaluate the effects of various reservoir operating alternatives for either preventing flooding or for avoiding precarious low flows downstream of the reservoirs.
20 4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum Research Methodology Models: 1) SWAT model: Basin daily streamflow model 2) HEC-ResSim model: Reservoir operations model Data: 1) SWAT: Daily values of precipitation, max & min air temperature, solar radiation, RH, & wind speed. DEM, land-use, soil-coverage 2) HEC-ResSim: Observed and SWAT-modeled flow hydrographs, reservoir pool elevations, physical & operational reservoir data Final Delivery * Development of a model that represents the cascade dams & reservoirs, * Delivery of optimal water use operational model for Omo river basin
21 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province # 8 7 ## 6 # 1 # # # 4 3 # ; 11 # 12 # ## 5
22 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 8 %U 9 %U Streams %U Raingages # Sub-basin outlet # Watershed outlet Reservoir Subbasins # %U 2 6 %U # 1%U # 7 %U ## %U 5 # # %U 4 %U 3 # %U # 11%U 10 ## %U 12 # Map of Khlong Yai basin and the streamflow network with reservoir locations
23 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province Conceptual methodology of the study
24 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province Monthly mean temperature (ºC) NCEP surface air temperature / Grid 12.5N-13.5N/101E-102.5E monthly mean temperature Year temperature anomaly trend line y = x Temperature anomaly (ºC) relative to Anomalies of monthly mean air temperature at surface relative to and the trend of monthly mean temperature in Rayong and Chonburi provinces
25 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province streamflow anomaly monthly streamflow trend line y = x Monthly streamflow (cms) Year Streamflow anomaly (cms) relative to Streamflow at outlet of subbasin 2 / obs data of station Z.15 Observed monthly streamflow and trend at outlet of subbasin
26 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 30 Streamflow at outlet of sub-basin 1 / SWAT of Khlongyai basin error Monthly streamflow (cms) streamflow shallow percolation Observed flow Simulated flow calculation error Error (cms) Observed and simulated monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 1
27 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province Monthly streamflow (cms) streamflow at outlet of sub-basin 2 / SWAT of Khlongyai basin error Observed flow Simulated flow calculation error streamflow Error (cms) Observed and simulated monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 2
28 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province Streamflow at outlet of sub-basin 3 / SWAT of Khlongyai basin error Monthly (cms) Observed flow Simulated flow Shallow percolation calculation error streamflow Error (cms) Observed and simulated monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 3
29 4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 30 Monthly rainfall/streamflow/precolation at outlet of subbasin 2 0 Streamflow (cms) Rainfall/Percolation Streamflow Observed flow Rainfall Simulated flow Percolation Rainfall/Precolation (mm/month) Rainfall, percolation and monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 2
30 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru
31 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Basins and areas specifically threatened by climate change
32 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Cumulative mean specific mass balances (a) and cumulative total mass balances (b) of glaciers and ice caps, calculated for large regions (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005).
33 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru CUENCA RIO SANTA HUARAZ TRUJILLO CANAL CHAVIMOCHIC CHIMBOTE CANAL CHINECAS
34 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru
35 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Rainfall predictions Average Dec-Jan-Feb rainfall Average Dec-Jan-Feb rainfall Source: SENAMHI
36 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Temperature predictions Average Mar-Apr-May temperature Average Mar-Apr-May temperature Source: SENAMHI
37 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Water balance predictions Water balance Water balance Source: SENAMHI
38 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru Mann-Kendall Test of monotonic trend: negative
39 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru / Time series Correlation of temperature with El Nino SST Linear regression/prediction of temperature by El Nino SST
40 : 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru Wavelet analysis of El Nino SST and station temperature
41 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru Wavelet multiresolution analysis of station temperature and El Nino SST
42 4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany Edertal reservoir System output Location maps Germany >> Hessen >> Fulda basin Germany N 20 km AE = 6930 km²
43 4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany Fulda catchment with sub-basins and picture of the Eder dam
44 4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /REMO-predictions/ Temperature Future temperatures Increase between 2 and 4 degrees, depending on SRES Least increase for the optimistic B1 scenario Delay effect for the A1B scenario at the end of the 21 st century
45 4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /REMO-predictions/ Precipitation Future Precipitation Periods of significantly higher yearly precipitation No long-term trend in yearly precipitation More precipitation in winter /less in summer
46 4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /REMO-predictions / Runoff Future Runoff Increase of yearly flow rate in all scenarios Most runoff increase is detected in the optimistic B1 scenario Significant increase of winter runoff in all scenarios Oscillation of the mean yearly runoff amount
47 4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /SWAT- streamflow predictions Moving average of the calculated yearly runoff amount (mean of 23 years)
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