Managing and Adapting to Sea Level Rise in Egypt. Coastal Research Institute

Transcription

1 Managing and Adapting to Sea Level Rise in Egypt Coastal Research Institute

2 Global Perspective

3 Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice and ice sheets

4 Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century (1.8 to 4.0 o c)according to special report on emission reduction scenarios (SRES)

5 This figure relates temperature changes and sea level rise for 6 different global models (18 to 59cm to year 2100

6 Global Mean Sea Level from Tidal Gauge observations around the world 2.0 mm/year 0.8 mm/year Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year

7 Contribution to Sea Level by Thermal Expansion 20 Rate = 0.4 mm/year ( ) DMSL (mm) Year

8 DMSL (mm) Contribution to Sea Level by Mountain Glaciers : 0.5 mm/year DMSL (mm) Year

9 Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007 Scenario Case Constant year 2000 concentrations Temperature Change (Relative to C) Best Estimate 0.6 B1 Scenario 1.8 A1T Scenario 2.4 B2 Scenario 2.4 A1B Scenario 2.8 A2 Scenario 3.4 A1FI Scenario 4.0 Sea Level Rise (m) (Relative to ) Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical exchange in the ice flow Not available

10 CoRI Activities

11 Impact of climate changes on coastal zones was investigated by MWRI, Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) and Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands ( ) The study at that time has estimated the sea level rise impact on all the entire coastal zones of Egypt (3500 km) in terms of quality and quantity. The study focused on the Nile Delta coast as it has been considered the most vulnerable area in the coastal zones of Egypt The study estimated the impacts of sea level rise if water has raisin by 1m, 2m, and 3m as shown in the figure.

12 Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels 1m zone 2m zone 3m zone

13 Results by CoRI & Delft (1992) and IPCC (2006) are comparable Because both studies ignored the morphological features of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta as (coastal sand dunes and ridges). Vulnerable areas defined by IPCC in 2006 Vulnerable areas defined by CoRI and Delft in 1992.

14 Coastal Research Institute increased its activities to define precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges) AMP 15.0 WBP 5.8 RGP 0.0 Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1964 Shoreline 1971 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1996 Shoreline m Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1964 Shoreline 1971 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1996 Lake Burullus m Shoreline Evolution at Burullus lake outlet (1810 to 2000) Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Light House Grand Hotel Paved Road m Shoreline Evolution at Baltim Sea Resort (1955 to 1990) Shoreline 1895 Shoreline 1911 Shoreline 1935 Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1983 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1995 Shoreline m Shoreline Evolution at Damietta Promontory (1895 to 2000) Shoreline 1965 Shoreline 1982 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline m Protection Sea Wall Shoreline Evolution East of Damietta Nile Branch (From 1965 to 2000) MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION NATIONAL WATER RESEARCH CENTER COASTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE GIS and Remote Sensing Unit Shoreline Retreat (meter/year) Shoreline Evolution at Rosetta Promontory (1900 to 2000) : : : : : : : :1987 Time Period (Year) 1987:1988 Abu Qir Research Station Zone 1988:1990 West of Rosetta Mouth East of Rosetta Mouth Shoreline Retreat Rate East and West Rosetta Mouth During The Past Century ALP 49.0 ALP 50.0 ALP 51.0 ALP 52.0 ALP 53.0 ALP 54.0 ALP 55.0 ALP 56.0 ALP 57.0 ALP 58.0 ALP 59.0 ALP 60.0 ALP 61.0 ALP 62.0 ALP 63.0 ALP31 ALP33 ALP37 ALP :1991 ALP14 ALP17 ALP :1994 ALP9 ALP1 ALP3 1994: RHP 0.0 RHP 10.0 RHP 21.0 RHP 20.0 RHP 19.0 RHP 18.0 RHP 17.0 RHP 16.0 RHP 15.0 Rosetta Field Station Zone RHP 30.0 RHP 28.3 RHP 26.8 RHP 24.8 RHP 23.0 RHP 22.0 RHP 30.1 WBP 2.9 WBP 4.1 WBP 4.6 WBP WBP 6.8 WBP 9.0 WBP 10.6 WBP 15.1 WBP 13.2 WBP 17.8 WBP 21.7 WBP 25.0 WBP 30.0 WBP Institute Administration Building 2 Abu Qir Research Station 3 Rosetta Field Station 4 Burullus Field Station 5 Ras El Bar Research Station WBP 40.0 WBP 45.0 Burullus Field Station Zone WBP 50.0 WBP 59.9 WBP 58.6 WBP 57.6 WBP 56.8 WBP 62.6 WBP 61.6 WBP 60.6 BRP 0.6 BRP 0.2 BRP 1.5 BRP 1.0 BRP 2.0 BRP 4.0 BRP 3.0 BRP BRP 7.0 BRP 6.0 BRP 5.0 BRP 8.0 BRP 9.0 BRP 9.5 BRP 11.4 BRP 13.0 BRP 13.4 BRP 14.8 BRP 16.5 BRP 20.0 Hydrografic and Land Profiles (Since )1971 Tide Gauge Stations 19(Years Separated) Wave and Current Gauge Stations (S4DW 13)(Years Separated) Longshore Current (Litteral current )Measurement Stations (Since 1982) Current beyond breaker zone Measurement Stations 25(Years Separated) Weather Station (Since 2000Separted) Water Quality Sampling Stations (Since 1998 Separated) Sediment Sampling Stations (Since )1971 BRP 24.0 BRP 28.0 BRP 38.0 BRP 43.0 BRP 48.0 BRP 55.0 BRP 56.6 BRP 57.7 GSP 1.0 GSP 3.9 Ras El Bar Research Station Zone GSP 9.7 GSP 13.0 GSP 17.9 GSP 17.0 GSP 16.0 GSP 23.1 GSP 20.3 GSP 19.3 GSP 24.4 GSP 24.1 GSP 28.3 GSP 27.0 GSP 26.4 GSP 25.4 GSP RGP 0.1 RGP 1.5 RGP 6.0 RGP 2.5 RGP 20.0 RGP 22.0 RGP 32.0 RGP 37.0 RGP 40.0 GPP km المحطات الحقلية 2015 واألنشطة 2nd June البحثيةTalks المختلفة Climate لمعهد Cairo بحوث الشواطئ About 200 hydrographic beach profiles along the Nile Delta coast

15 Suez Canal 31 o 00' 31 o 30' 32 o 00' Mediterranean Sea ROSETTA PROMONTORY BURULLUS Burullus Lagoon Baltim Gamasa DAMIETTA PROMONTORY Abu Quir Bay Port Said NILE DELTA Idku Lagoon Beach and backshore Old Dunes Cultivated Land Coastal Dunes Desert Northern Coast Ridge 0 20km توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل 30 o 00' 30 o 30' Cairo 31Climate o 00' Talks 2nd June 31 o 30' o 00' 32 o 30'

16 Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast. (CoRI-2007), First Scenario Station Tide measured duration Average Annual ASLT (Cm) Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2050 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2075 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2100 Alex El-Burullus Port Said

17 Three scenarios were established with the actual morphology The first scenario was established by assuming that the same rate of temperature change (0.6 ºC over the last century) will occur till The second scenario was established by temperature projection till Temperature change is assumed to be 1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century. The third scenario was established by temperature projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.

18 Results Considering Natural and Man-made Protection Systems

19 Al-Manzala Lake Borders Al=Atwy (8km) (3.28m) Al-Rodah (12 km) (2.84 m) Al-Lithy (27 km) (3.6 m) Al-Shipool (38 km) (3.13m)

20 West Al-Burullus Port (+1.5 m ) N West New Port (+1.5 m) - N Al-Burullus Lake Borders Baltim (+2.0 m) E Baltim (+2.0 m) - E New New Road Road to (+ Kafr 2.15 m) S Al-Sheikh (+2.15) S Brimbal Area (+1.75 m) W

21 Mohammed Ali Sea Wall at Abu Quir Bay

22 Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100, (CoRI 2007)

23 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta Area According to CoRI measurements till 2100 (With Mohammed Ali wall lakes borders) Year Total Area Affected (km2) Total % of the Nile Delta Area

24 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario

25 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (B1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall lake's borders) Year Total Area Affected (km2) Total % of the Nile Delta Area

26 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1FI Scenario

27 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders) Year Total Area Affected (km2) Total % of the Nile Delta Area

28 Impacts of SLR and the vulnerability of coastal communities, economic sectors and natural systems in the areas of Ras El Bar, New Damietta City and Gamasa Cultivated land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100 land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100

29 Coastal Hydrodynamic

30 Methodology The historical measured wave data from 1977 to 2010 are examined to investigate the effects of climate change on wave climate. ImSedTran-2D numerical model is used to describe changes in wave energy from place to place and to check the stability of the existing coastal structures.

31 Wave measurement stations

32 Wave data sources along the southeastern Mediterranean coast No. Location Position Instrument Depth Period Duration (month) Meas. Interval 1 El Hamra Lat. 30 o 55.9' N; Long. 28 o 50.1' E S4DW 8.0 July 1998 to May minutes 2.0hr. 2 El Dikheila Harbor Lat. 31 o N; Long. 29 o E S4DW 17.0 March 1992 to March minutes 4.0hr. 3 Abu Quir Headland OSPOS 6-8 Some records during the period from 1971 to minutes 6.0hr. 4 Abu Quir Bay Lat. 31 o ' N; Long. 30 o ' E CAS 18.5 Sep 1985 to Dec, minutes each 6.0hr. 5 Abu Quir Bay Lat 31 o N; long 30 o E S4DW 14.1 Dec to Nov minutes 4.0 hr. 6 Burullus OSPOS 6-8 Some records during the period from 1972 to minutes 6.0hr. 7 Damietta Harbor Lat. 31 o ' N; Long. 31 o ' E S4DW 12.0 Sep to June 1999 June 2001 to March 2004 Nov to Sep minutes 4.0 hr. 8 West Ras El-Bar Lat. 31 o ' N; Long. 31 o ' E CAS 7.0 May 1985 to Dec minutes each 6.0hr. 9 East of Ras El-Bar OSPOS 6-8 Some records during the period from 1972 to minutes 6.0 hr. 10 Ashdod, Israel Wave rider hr.

33 Segnificant wave height (m). Wave direction from North Significant wave period (sec.) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthes mean-st. Dv. Medium Mean mean+st. Dv. Max. Storm season: Oct. To March Swell season: June to Oct. Spring season: April and May More than 75% of the year, the wave heights less than 1.0 m and more than 50% of the year, the wave periods range between 5.5 and 6.5 sec. In summer about 50% of the waves oscillate between NNW and WNW directions while in winter 50% of the waves oscillate between N and NW directions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthes Wave characteristics in front of Damietta harbor illustrated all the available observation during the period from 1997 to 2010 at 12.5 m depth.

34 Results

35 There is an increasing trend in the mean significant wave height during the period from 1985 to 2010 by rate ranged from 2.6 to 2.9 cm/year. The increase in wave height during the period from 1985 to 2010 coincides with a decrease in wave period ranged from 0.01 to 0.26 sec/year. It may be due to increase in sea wave and decrease in the swell waves.

36 Wave distribution obtained from ImSedTran-2D model after 50 years shows that the wave energy in front of the coastal structures within this area increases by about 20% within high storms. While it decreases by about 1% for the normal wave condition Stability check within the coastal structures lifetime show that nearly most of the Egyptian coastal structures are over designed and will not be affected by the increase in wave energy due to the climate change

37 Adaptation Strategies

38 According to IPCC summary report for decision makers, Nov. 2007, it is recommended to create wetlands in areas vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying deltas. (Al-Manzalla, Al-Burullus, Idku, and Maryot Lakes are one of the natural adaptation processes). Protection constructions carried out by Shore Protection Authority (SPA) (Damietta, Rosetta, and Al-Burullus). Natural sand dunes systems Mohammed Ali Wall which protects low lands at Abu-Quir Bay in the western region of the Nile Delta.

39 The international road could act as the second defensive line to protect north zone of the country. In this concern, it should be mentioned that UNDP in 1992 had a roundtable meeting about considering the road as a mitigation measure against the impact of sea level rise. Al-Salam Canal goes by Al-Manzalla Lake and its banks have levels more that two meters above lake's water level.

40 Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road International coastal road

41 Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast and coastal protection works

42 Artificial Sand Dune Proposed nourished areas

43 Increase the efficiency of existing protection work Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low Lands

44 Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Abu Quir Bay Low Lands ( m Below Sea Level) Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall

45 Protect the vulnerable areas Ras-El-Bar City shore before Shore protection Ras-El-Bar City shore After Shore protection

46 Resent plan Increase the accuracy of the data ( full hydrographic survey for the coastal area GPS reference stations for land subsidence measurement expand the meteorological measured stations). Use the Dredged material from port approach channels and lakes to construct artificial dunes. Multi used coastal structures ( convert the hydrodynamic energy to electrical and or mechanical energy).

47 Conclusions

48 Conclusions Climate Change is a continuous and slow process. Temperature increased by 0.6 ºC in the last century due to upnormal activities as wars, industrial revolution.etc. The current study provides an assessment to vulnerability of the Nile Delta coasts to sea level rise (SLR) expected from the climate change. The study was carried out by using actual measurements of tide gauges for the last three decades. Statistical analysis indicated that the rate of average mean SLR is 5.3mm, 2.3mm, and 1.6 mm in Port Said, Al-Burullus, and Alexandria respectively. Results indicate that the vulnerable areas have percentages of 0.74, 0.97, and 3.01 of the area of the Nile Delta area for CoRI, B1, and A1FI scenarios respectively. This means that less than 1.0% of the Nile Delta area will suffer from sea level rise in CoRI and B1 scenarios and about 3% with A1FI scenario.

49 What is our priority?? The climate change with its high uncertainty Or our existing problems of: - Lack of resources. - Shoreline erosion. - Outlet sedimentation. - North lakes pollution. - Deterioration of the coastal zone ecosystems. - Increase of population. - Increase demand for fresh water. - Lack of electricity. - Deterioration of the infrastructure in general - etc.

50 Thank you

51