EACES biennial congress Budapest, September 4-6, 2014

Transcription

1 EACES biennial congress Budapest, September 4-6, 2014 Rustem Nureev Financial University under the Russian Government, Moscow, Russia & Evgeny Markin Russian State University of Physical Education, Sport, Youth and Tourism, Moscow, Russia OLYMPIC BUSINESS CYCLES: THE MODELS OF ADMINISTRATION AND FINANCING 1. Literature review 2. Olympic Business Cycle: main stages 3. Olympic Business Cycle: Economic vs Politics 4. Models of administration and finance and GDP growth 5. Sochi 2014 case 1

2 1. KEY RESEARCHES Main Literature: - Wladimir Andreff & Jan-Ftancois Nys «Sport Economy» (1986) - Holger Preuss Economics of the Olympic Games. Hosting the Games (2008) - Frank Daumann and Markus Breuer «The Award of the Olympic Games - Incentives for Corruption in a Multiple Principal-Agent Relationship» (2010) - Sport influence on Europe economy and labor market: D. Dimitrov, L. Helmenshtayn, B. Moser, A. Klyaysner and J. Schindler (2006), L. Kahn (2000) and P. Staudohar (1996). - Sport marketing and management in sport: М. Shank, I. Blackshow, S. Brown, - State management in sport area and sport infrastructure and new jobs creation: R. Noll, А. Zimbalist. - Olympic Games Economy: R. Barney (1994), K. Heinemann (2002), R. Mandell (1984), A. Gutman (1992). 2

3 Key researches In Russian: - Investigations in the area of physical training and sport economy: B.S. Kuzmak, R.M. Orlov, V.I. Zholdak, V.E. Levitin, V.V. Kuzin - Questions of labor productivity and physical training dependence : V.I. Zholdak. - Factors which defines the efficiency of physical training: A.M. Alekseev. The theory of physical training and sport economy : V.M. Rutgaizer, V.V. Galkin. - The interest to Olympic Games economy appears at the beginning of 90s. - Olympic marketing: V.V. Ponyavin, V.I. Koval 3

4 2. Olympic business cycle: Main Stages Olympic business cycle (OBC) is a period of time between the moment when the country announce to participate in Olympic bid, and the moment of next (after the Olympics) tourists season finishing in host country. There is 3 main stages can be assigned within Olympic Business cycle. The main criteria is Olympic Games. 1) pre-olympic stage (~ 9 years); - Olympic Bid participation (~ 2 years); - Olympic Games organizing (~ 7 years); 2) Olympic stage (~ 1/6 year); 3) post-olympic stage (~ 1 year). 4

5 Year City and Country The Length of Olympic Business Cycles Games of Olympiads Olympic Winter Games Bid starting Electi on Length of OBC (years) Year City and Country Bid starting Electi on Length of OBC(years) 1896 Athens (Greece) no data no data Paris (France) no data no data Saint-Luis (USA) no data no data London (Great Britain) no data no data Stockholm (Sweden) no data no data Antwerp (Belgium) no data no data Paris (France) no data no data Chamonix (France) no data no data Amsterdam (Netherlands) no data no data St. Moritz (Switzerland) no data no data Los-Angeles (USA) Lake-Placid (USA) Berlin (Germany) Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Ger) London (Great Britain) St. Moritz (Switzerland) Helsinki (Finland) Oslo (Norway) Melbourne (Australia) Cortina d Ampezzo (Italy) Rome (Italy) Squaw-Valley (USA) Tokyo (Japan) Innsbruck (Austria) Mexico City (Mexico) Grenoble (France) Munich (Germany) Sapporo (Japan) Montreal (Canada) Innsbruck (Austria) Moscow (USSR) Lake-Placid (USA) Los-Angeles (USA) Sarajevo (Yugoslavia) Seoul (South Korea) Calgary (Canada) Barcelona (Spain) Albertville (France) Atlanta (USA) Lillehammer (Norway) Sydney (Australia) Nagano (Japan) Athens (Greece) Salt-Lake-City (USA) Beijing (China) Turin (Italy) London (Great Britain) Vancouver (Canada) Rio-de-Janeiro (Brazil) Sochi (Russia)

6 Olympic business cycle VS classical business cycle The common features 1) Fluctuations (waves) 2) Length 10 years (Juglar cycle) 3) The same phases Differences 1) The different order of phases 2) Consequences (for some countries Olympic business cycle is cause of growth, for another the cause for regression) 3) Olympic business cycle is a unique cycle for the country, but the classical business cycle is regular (take place one after another). It has the same economic features in different countries but depends on cultural specific and mentality. 4) Olympic business cycle is either help to economy to overcome the depression or to make a strong support for stable growth. 5) Classical business cycle has the same influence in different countries. Olympic business cycle depends on the scale of country economy. 6

7 2.1. Pre-Olympic Stage Main Indicators of Olympic Bids International Olympic Committee has developed a special system of Applicants and Candidate cities estimation. Candidature Acceptance Procedure includes 11 indicators: 1. Government support, legal issues and public opinion (including compliance with the Olympic Charter and the World Anti-Doping Code*); 2. General infrastructure 3. Sports venues 4. Olympic Village(s) 5. Environmental conditions and impact 6. Accommodation 7. Transport concept 8. Safety and security 9. Experience from past sports events 10. Finance 11. Overall project and legacy Independent analytical agencies calculate BIDINDEXes: - Gamesbids. - Aroundtherings. 7

8 General Approach 1. Each indicator can be in diapason from 1 to The acceptable minimum is If city receives less than 6 then this indicator is colored in matrix in red color. 4. It is the signal that city has not enough developed in this sphere. 5. Let s illustrate this procedure on the example of Games of XXXI Olympiad

9 Elections of 2016 Olympic Host City 1) Government support, legal issues and public opinion (including compliance with the Olympic Charter and the World Anti-Doping Code*). * The Working Group has commented on the Applicant Cities compliance with the World Anti-Doping Code, but not assigned grades. Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 9

10 2) General infrastructure Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 10

11 3) Sport Venues Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 11

12 4) Olympic Village(s) Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 12

13 5) Environmental conditions and impact Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 13

14 6) Accommodation Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 14

15 7) Transport concept Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 15

16 8) Safety and security Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 16

17 9) Experience from past sports events Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 17

18 10) Finance Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 18

19 11) Overall project and legacy Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 19

20 FINAL SCORE Source: Games of XXXI Olympiad 2016 Working Group Report 20

21 Source: The Bid Indexes of GamesBids Agency on the eve of 2014 and 2016 Olympics final voting International sport analytical agencies also have their own ratings. They analyze the same indicators by themselves and present Bid indexes. BidIndex results on the eve of 2016 Olympics capital choosing CITY HIGH LOW CHG INDEX Chicago Madrid Rio-de-Janeiro Tokyo BidIndex results on the eve of 2014 Olympics capital choosing CITY HIGH LOW CHG INDEX PyeongChang Salzburg Sochi

22 Number of Applications Austria Belgium Germany Spain Number of Candidate Cities to Host The Games of Olympiad ( ) Italy Canada Russia (USSR) USA Finland France Switzerland Sweden Yugoslavia Japan China Mexico Brazil Argentina Cuba Turkey Great Britain Malaysia Egypt Tailand Puerto-Rico SAR Greece Australia South Korea Hungary Netherlands Ireland Czech Republic Azerbaijan Dubai Countries Calculated by authors on the base of

23 Austria Belgium Germany Spain Number of Candidate Cities to Host Olympic Winter Games ( ) Italy Canada Norway Poland Russia (USSR) Slovakia USA Finland France Switzerland Sweden Yugoslavia Japan Andorra China Bosnia & Herzegovina South Korea Kazakhstan Georgia Bolgaria Countries Calculated by authors on the base of

24 Public and private cost-benefit analysis on pre-olympic stage Participation in election procedure Costs Benefits Public Olympic bid documentary support, Participation fee, preparing and organization of activities to popularize the idea of Olympic Games hosting inside the country and abroad Olympic Games Questionary preparing Applicant City advertising, infrastructure development and preparing for IOC Commission visit country image increase, knowledge increase about applicant city abroad Business - Participation analysis Investment attraction increase Created by authors 24

25 Public and private cost-benefit analysis on pre-olympic stage Olympic Games Organizing Costs Benefits Public Business Organization costs, - Administrative costs - Opening and closing ceremonies - Olympic touch relay Technical costs (stadiums, swimming pools, Olympic village, press-center etc.) Infrastructure development (roads, underground, electronic communications etc.) Environmental protection Hotels construction Tourism infrastructure development in hope for the future benefits DIRECT TV rights selling, Sponsors (national and worldwide) licensing ticketing (partially) Sells through the Internet Coins, lottery etc. INDIRECT unemployment decrease aggregate demand growth taxes growth business activity growth country and city availability growth Investment attraction growth Advertising of goods and services Created by authors 25

26 Public and private cost-benefit analysis on pre-olympic stage Olympic Games Organizing Committees revenues from marketing programs ( ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 4,4% 1,8% 2,1% 17,1% 16,6% 9,8% 19,0% 20,3% 17,4% 10,6% 15,4% 15,8% 40% 30% 20% 10% 47,6% 48,9% 53,3% 0% Periods of time TV rights selling Sponsorship National Sponsorship Ticketing Licensing Created by: 2006 Marketing Fact File, IOC report,

27 The scheme of IOC financial flows Previous Olympic Games << >> Olympic Games Broadcusting The Olympic Partnership Licensing Ticketing National Partners National licensing Next Olympic Games << >> 100% 100% 100% 100% International Olympic Committee (IOC) 51% 10% 0% 5% 40% 10% 49% NOCs and ISF of Olympic movement member-countries 50% 100% 95% 100% Organizing Committee of the Olympic Games 100% Created by: Marketing Fact file IOC, 2002; Marketing Fact file IOC, 2006; Галкин В.В. Экономика и управление физической культурой и спортом. Изд. «Феникс», Ростов-на-Дону, 2006;

28 2.2. Public and private cost-benefit analysis on Olympic stage Costs Benefits Public Business Security Sportsmen accommodation and food Advertising activities, festivals etc. Utilities Subsidies to the Factories and companies which are closed for the Games period to traffic jams avoiding and so on. General organizational costs restrictions for factories and industry companies work number of tourists increase, country image increase, ticketing (partially) Sells through the Internet GDP and GRP growth taxes country image increase, Investment attraction increase Advertising of goods and services souvenirs and sport equipment selling plastic cards transactions hotels full filling sportsmen and guests expenditures Created by authors 28

29 2.3. Public and private cost-benefit analysis on post-olympic stage Costs Benefits Public Business Infrastructure and equipment operation costs Infrastructure and equipment operation costs bank interest revenue assets selling, hosting other mega events hosting other mega events souvenirs and sport equipment selling tourism Created by authors 29

30 3. Olympic Business Cycle: Economic vs Politics Summary of Gross Spending Related to the 2010 Games Source: 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games Report 30

31 Distribution of the investments for the Olympic Games (%) Created by: Preuss H. The Olympics. Handbook on the Economics of Sport. Edited by Wladimir Andreff abd Stefan Szymanski. Edward Elgar Publishing, UK,

32 Political and economic business activity inside the Olympic business cycle (a typical issue) Business Activity Previous OG Debrief Economic Business Cycle (by revenue) Political Business Activity 2 года 5 лет 2 года 1 год Economic Business Cycle (by costs) Т 0 The beginning of Bid Procedure Т 1 Host-city and country announcement Т 2 Venues and infrastructure readiness Т 3 Olympic Games (2 weeks) Т N Time Source: created by author. 32

33 Econometrical analysis Y t = α + β*y t-1 + θ β is the coefficient shows the rate of GDP growth per capita in Olympic Games hostcountries. β 0 10 years before Olympic Business Cycle β 1 Olympic Business Cycle China ,93 1,31 Italy ,56 1,14 Greece ,93 1,23 USA ,95 0,99 Australia ,01 0,60 Japan ,10 0,69 33

34 4. ADMINISTRATION AND FINANCING MODELS OF SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES IN We followed by Holger Preuss model (2000). But we only a little change the level of models defining. 1. Model of public administration and financing (the share of public participation more than 67%); 2. Mixed model of administration and financing (the share of public participation from 33% to 67%); 3. Model of private administration and financing (the share of public participation less than 33%) 34 34

35 Administration and financing models of summer Olympic Games in Created by: Preuss, Holger. Economics of the Olympic Games. Hosting the Games Sydney: Walla Walla Press in conjunction with the Centre for Olympic Studies, The University of New South Wales, 2000, 291 p.; Коваль В.И. Олимпиада 80 (экономический аспект), «ЗНАНИЕ», Москва, 1978 (Koval V.I. Olympics 1980 (economic aspects). Moscow, 1978, in Russian); Прицельный олимпийский огонь // Эксперт, Москва, август 2004 (Direct Olympic fire // Expert, August 2004, in Russian); Игры кончились // Smart Money, , 27 (117) (The Games ended // Smart Money, , 27 (117), in Russian) 35

36 Inflation in Olympic Host Countries Created by: World Bank 36

37 Investments in Olympic Host Countries Created by: World Bank 37

38 Spain s (a) and Australia s (b) GDP per capita and GDP growth in dynamics ( ) a) Spain b) Australia Created by: World Bank, International Monetary Fund 38

39 Greece s (a) and China s (b) GDP per capita and GDP growth in dynamics ( ) a) Greece b) China Created by: World Bank, International Monetary Fund 39

40 The Role of Economy Size in Defined Models It should also be noted that analysis of different models of administration and financing must also take into account the size of the economies themselves. Olympic Games of 1984 and 1996 in the United States had no noticeable effect on the economy in view of the fact that the correlation of the budget of the Games and the U.S. budget was too small about 0.01% per capita. GDP per capita in the United States was growing steadily, but the GDP growth rates ranged. Otherwise this correlation reached 1,13% per capita annually in some countries (Greece). Examples: USA, etc. 40

41 5. SOCHI 2014 CASE. Usually it is divided 4 main levels of administration and financing: 1. the state of the Olympic Games host-country, 2. the region/ district, 3. the city (the capital of the Games) and 4. the private sector. All of these levels is involved in Sochi Olympics organizing: - the President and the Government of Russia, - Krasnodar Region Administration, - Sochi Administration and - private sector. The Games Organizing Committee is usually responsible for Games preparation. In Russia it is the "Sochi 2014" Organizing Committee Created by the analysis of Russian State Laws and Official documents Sochi 2014 OCOG 41 41

42 Total costs for Olympic Winter Games (bln $) Russia Canada Italy USA Japan Norway Calculated by Authors on: Flyvbjerg В. Stewart A. Olympic Proportions: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Olympics Working Paper // Saïd Business School, University of Oxford

43 Main economic indacators of Russia, Sothern Federal District and Krasnodar region (2012 vs 2005). Krasnodar region Sothern Federal District Russia Capital Investments per capita, RUB (Rank) (27) (11) Unemployment (%) 7,4 5,6 8,4 6,2 7,1 5,5 Income per capita, RUB Sourse: created by authors on Goskomstat data (

44 TOP-30 of Russian Cities for Doing Business (2012) Calculated by Authors on Forbes data 44

45 Gross regional product index growth (2006=100) Krasnodar region Average in South Federal Region Sourse: created by authors on Goskomstat data (

46 Average income per capita (month; RUB; 1990 г. thousand RUB) OBC Sochi , Russia South Federal District Krasnodar region Source: calculated by authors on Rosstat data ( 46

47 Sochi 2014 Summary. Model of public administration and financing; 1) institutional preconditions for the effective private sector development; 2) world s best practice implementation; 3) features private business oriented management on the state level. 47

48 Conclusion (1) Olympic business cycle is a specific type of middle run business cycle. Olympic business cycle can help to overcome the country regression or make an impulse for rapid economy growth. The cost-benefit analysis and correlation between economic and political business cycles have shown that the highest accumulation of financial and administrative resources is needed on pre-olympic stage. Otherwise the payback of the Games and its legacy depends on the program which will be realized on post-olympic Stage. The econometrical analysis has shown that GDP growth is higher during the Olympic business cycle. As a result, countries can give the impulse to the economy through the Games organizing. The payback of the Games and Mid Run-Long Run economic growth in host country depends on the model of administration and financing which was chosen for Games organizing. 48

49 Conclusion (2) There are 3 main models of Olympic Games administration and financing: - Model of public administration and financing - Model of private administration and financing - Mixed model of administration and financing The effectiveness of the Olympic Games can be understood in a narrow (direct payback of the Games) and a wide (due to the Games set the stage for long-term and sustainable economic development) sense of the word. If private management model and financing payback of the Games means success for the organizers and investors. The population of the Olympic Games, with high probability, slightly felt the economic impact of this event. If the model of governance and financing - Games organizing is the way to improve infrastructure, to stimulate demand and improve the quality and standard of living. 49

50 Thank you for your attention! 50