The Need for AMTs Growing the Next Generation

Transcription

1 The Need for AMTs Growing the Next Generation Mike Arata Bob Ireland Crystal Maguire Mark Thom Larry Slate United Airlines Airlines for America ATEC Purdue University The Boeing Company April 26, 2017

2 Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Demand for commercial aircraft technicians 2016 Technician Outlook

3 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 3

4 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 4

5 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 5

6 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 6

7 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 7

8 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 8

9 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 9

10 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 10

11 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 11

12 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 12

13 US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce by Age Labor Supply vs Labor Demand by Year Number of FTEs 5,000 Median Age of US Labor Force US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce Median Age of US Commercial MRO Maintenance Technician Workforce FTE Difference 3,000 Demand Supply 1,000 4,500-1,000 4,000-3,000-5,000 3,500-7,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Rate of Attrition vs Rate of Entry by Year Percent Attrition Difference Entry Rate 0.6% Rate 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Oliver Wyman 13

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15 The Need for AMTs. Growing the Next Generation. MRO Americas, April 26, 2017 Crystal Maguire, Executive Director 15

16 Who we are ATEC mission is to promote and support aviation maintenance technician education, current focus on: Choke points in the pipeline Areas of opportunity to increase capacity and close the skills gap The majority of our members are part 147 AMTS (nearly 70% of all AMTS are members) The rest of the membership is made up of industry employers (e.g., MROs, airlines, etc.), education suppliers (e.g., book publishers, teaching aids manufacturers, etc.) and non-certificated schools with aviation programs (i.e., high schools, Community College of the Airforce) 16

17 AMTS Survey Most schools provide more than just A&P, including standalone programs in avionics (24%), composites (15%), welding (15%), unmanned aircraft systems (14%), and non-destructive testing (12%) AMTS respondents reported a student-placement rate of 76% upon graduation another indication of increased demand for A&Ps The vast majority of respondents (70%) expect their institution s enrollment to increase in the following year 17

18 Areas of Opportunity Only sixty percent of graduates elect to take the A&P mechanic test One in four graduates (25 percent) did not pursue a career in aviation 700 students from response group alone 18

19 Non-Aviation Employers of AMTS Grads Military Facilities maintenance Farming Construction Industrial machinery Non-aviation manufacturing Utilities Heavy Equipment Rail Theme parks Oil and gas Alternative energy Automotive

20 Part 147 NPRM Removes specific curriculum requirements from the rule Retains the current 1900 curriculum hour requirements but redistributes to put more emphasis on general and airframe and allows for a credit hour system ATEC, industry-supported, comments suggested less prescriptive language that would allow competencybased programs 20

21 Where are we now? Part 147 rulemaking is expected this summer All AMTS have been issued operations specifications to manage curriculum An FAA/industry Aviation Maintenance Technician (AMT) Airman Certification Standards (ACS) working group was established to update and modernize mechanic testing standards 21

22 The AMT ACS Brainchild of the Airman Testing Standards and Training Aviation Rulemaking Committee, chartered in 2011 and made up of pilot community and FAA representatives. An integrated standard that will guide the creation and maintenance of the written, oral and practical mechanic test. It will clearly dictate the knowledge, risk management, and skill required of an FAAcertificated mechanic. 22

23 Part 147 and the ACS The new part 147 will remove current curriculum requirements (we hope it will also eliminate proposed static curriculum topics) ACS would/should be utilized as a foundation for training standards The training standard would thereafter be regularly reviewed and updated through the ACS process 23

24 Recruitment Challenges GAO Report : Data provide less support for a shortage of aircraft mechanics; while the occupation has had a low unemployment rate, both employment and earnings have stayed about the same, suggesting that demand for this occupation has not outstripped supply. Mynextmove.org is an interactive tool for job seekers and students to learn more about their career options, sponsored by the DOL 24

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26 Think Globally, Act Locally National workforce problems are ultimately solved when communities and get active in a planned, strategic way ATEC tools and initiatives Employer expo at the Annual Conference AMTS directory, employer resources that includes expected graduates and career development contacts for all participating AMTS High school and dual enrollment programs 26

27 Crystal Maguire, Executive Director

28 SURVEY OF FACULTY HIRING NEEDS FOR PART 147 PROGRAMS Data was collected from 40 Part 147 programs about current Part 147 faculty, the current need for faculty, and the potential future need for faculty. Private and non-collegiate programs were not evaluated in this study. Study collected and analyzed data on the potential upcoming shortage of faculty in A&P collegiate programs. Found difficulty in filling faculty positions in Part 147 programs Found increasing institutional requirements for incoming faculty to have earned graduate degrees. Survey of Faculty Hiring Needs for Collegiate Part 147 Programs. (2016) Mary E. Johnson, PhD; Pedram Motevalli; J. Mark Thom; Purdue University

29 HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION OF CURRENT A&P FACULTY 120 Highest levels of education (2-yr and 4-year) programs? Number of Faculty Certification Only High School Degree or GED Associates Bachelors Masters Doctoral

30 ANTICIPATED NUMBER OF EDUCATOR REQUIREMENTS AND PREFERENCES FOR NEXT 1-3 YEARS Required for incoming faculty/instructors? Preferred for incoming faculty/instructors? Required for program administrators? Preferred for program administrators? Certification Only High School Degree or GED Associates Bachelors Masters Doctoral Analysis Some kind of degree is needed A degree for instructors is desired Some kind of degree is needed Increased need for advanced degrees

31 ANTICIPATED NUMBER OF EDUCATOR REQUIREMENTS AND PREFERENCES FOR NEXT 4-10 YEARS Required for incoming faculty/instructors? Preferred for incoming faculty/instructors? Required for program administrators? Preferred for program administrators? Certification Only High School Degree or GED Associates Bachelors Masters Doctoral Analysis More advanced degrees needed But, we really wish we didn t have to More advanced degrees needed Again, we really wish we didn t have to

32 SO WHY IS THIS SHIFT IN EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS RELEVANT? Purdue graduating A&P class circa 1979 THE WORLD IS DIFFERENT TODAY THAN IT WAS IN 1979

33 Students are different: More diverse More global Less mechanically experienced Easily frustrated Returning veterans may require a different style of instruction

34 The technology is different The recruiting image is different The need to be recognized as a professional is different The struggle to compete at state levels for academic funding is more competitive The regulatory requirements for Part 147 are evolving, and so is the oversight compliance system Being the best 777 mechanic on the planet is no longer enough

35 A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COMMENTS FROM ADMINISTRATORS OF THE SCHOOLS SURVEYED, IN THEIR OWN WORDS University administrators do not hold this type of program in high regard, 1) because the core education is deemed to be a certificate or associate degree level, and 2) the students are getting their hands dirty while learning. This makes the program susceptible to suspension or termination because it does not fit their perception of what an education should look like. Hiring younger faculty that will stay long enough to become seasoned educators, able to put up with the "dual master" system of meeting academic and FAA standards. The struggle most FAR 147 has is the inability to hire instructors with the corresponding education level to satisfy State's requirements along with the working experience in the overall FAA curriculum areas,

36 WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? An Educate the Educators program needs to be developed to: Get good mechanics the credentials and degrees required for the future Educate mechanics on the modern methods of student education Teach and share the administrative best practices for operating in a Part 147 regulated environment Develop the professional standing of the profession

37 There are educational tools today that can deliver this kind of information on a national scale, leading to a higher education degree for the professional A&P educator. How important do we consider this to be? How do we fund it? Industry? Federal? How do we coordinate it? Should there be a professional curricula defined? What should the professional A&P instructor or school of the 21 st century, look like?

38 2017 Technician Outlook Larry Slate Regional Vice President, Americas Boeing Commercial Aviation Services April 26, 2017 Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

39 What s trending in aviation? Strong, resilient, growing market expected to continue Passengers flying where they want when they want Single-aisle is fastest growing, most dynamic segment Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Keiko Murakami for JCAB WG.ppt 39

40 How do we address the shortage? Increasing workforce pool is just one way to address the shortage. Increasing capacity at schools or building new schools begins to address the short term issues. Regulatory help may be needed (shorten course requirements; test out) Is the workforce pool shortage the real problem? Or, is it the symptom of a greater problem? Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Keiko Murakami for JCAB WG.ppt 40

41 Competition for resources is just one challenge Shrinking workforce and competing industries increases the difficulty in drawing new people to aviation. Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Carbary, Pilot & Technician Outlook.ppt 41

42 Today s young people are harder to reach Aviation is not as attractive as in the past Young people learn differently Interact differently Are interested in different things. Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Keiko Murakami for JCAB WG.ppt 42

43 How do we reach these students? Next generation technician for next generation aircraft One important aspect of creating a safe and highquality maintenance operation is ensuring all technicians have a strong sense of moving along an attractive and professional career path. (Aviation Week, October 2014) -When do they start thinking of career options? -Do all aviation majors pursue aviation careers? Increase awareness among elementary school kids Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Keiko Murakami for JCAB WG.ppt 43

44 We should begin early K-12 Engagement is critical Make aviation fun Make aviation relevant Convey the importance of aviation in their daily lives Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Keiko Murakami for JCAB WG.ppt 44

45 Manufacturing Programs in Washington State Bellingham Northwest Career Technical Academy Port Townsend HS North Olympic Peninsula SC Port Angeles HS Elma HS Port Angeles Central Kitsap HS West Sound Tech SC Bremerton HS South Kitsap HS Capital HS Olympia Seattle SC Tacoma 5 Seattle Clover Park HS Everett Granite Falls HS Sedro- Woolley HS Snohomish HS Glacier Peak HS Marysville A&T HS Sno-Isle SC WaNIC SC Puget Sound SC Renton HS Lindbergh HS Kent-Meridian HS Auburn HS Enumclaw HS Emerald Ridge HS Washington HS Franklin Pierce HS Pierce County SC Newport HS NEWTECH SC Shadle Park HS Spokane Grand Coulee Dam HS Spokane Valley SC Ellensburg HS Columbia Basin SC 90 Wenatchee Moses Lake Wahluke HS Hoquiam HS Yakima Yakima Valley Tech West Valley HS 5 82 Tri-Tech SC Tri Cities Sea-Tech SC Walla Walla Skill Centers Traditional HS Clark County SC Fort Vancouver HS Vancouver Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 45

46 Washington State Manufacturing Pipeline Approach Experienced Workers Veterans AEROSPACE EMPLOYMENT Internal Movement Targeted strategic outreach events K 8 th Grade Engage with student development programs Skill Center (11-12 th ) Traditional High School (9-12 th ) Student Development Program Community/ Technical College Internship / Apprentice model 4-Year College Engage with career technical educators Partner to address industry workforce development needs Developing the Future Manufacturing Workforce Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

47 Summary No one size fits all solution Increase capacity Engage with regulatory to shorten time requirements and make the training more relevant Engage with industry to make the Aviation profession more attractive to new people Start talking to people while they are still young, plant the seed of Aviation Start now! Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Carbary, Pilot & Technician Outlook.ppt 47

48 Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.