Christchurch Northern Corridor - Traffic Modelling Report ABN:

Transcription

1 Report Christchurch Northern Corridor - Traffic Modelling Report ABN: November 2014 Beca 2014 (unless Beca has expressly agreed otherwise with the Client in writing). This report has been prepared by Beca on the specific instructions of our Client. It is solely for our Client s use for the purpose for which it is intended in accordance with the agreed scope of work. Any use or reliance by any person contrary to the above, to which Beca has not given its prior written consent, is at that person's own risk.

2 Revision History Revision Nº Prepared By Description Date 1.0 Kari Sinnathamby Draft for Discussion 19/08/ Kari Sinnathamby Draft for NZTA and CCC 27/08/ Kari Sinnathamby Final 03/11/14 Document Acceptance Action Name Signed Date Prepared by Kari Sinnathamby 03/11/2014 Reviewed by John Row 03/11/2014 Approved by Bryce Carter 03/11/2014 on behalf of Beca Ltd Beca // 3 November 2014

3 Table of Contents 1 Introduction Background Report Purpose Project Description Report Structure Model Structure CTM Demand Model CAST Assignment Model Modelled Project Model Inputs and Assumptions Forecast Year Land Use Assumptions Time Periods Economic Inputs CTM and CAST Demands CTM Trip Totals Trip Distribution Analysis CAST Model Demands Traffic Network Results Introduction Effects on Daily Traffic Volumes Effects on Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Heavy Commercial Vehicle (HCV) flows Project Screenlines Effect on Travel Time Effect on Level of Service Upstream and Downstream Effect Induced Traffic Analysis Delays and Vehicle/Capacity Ratios Summary LoS definition... 3 Appendices Appendix A Modelling Assumptions Techincal Note Appendix B Network Summary Appendix C CTM Matrices Appendix D QTP Memorandum Appendix E Traffic Volumes Locations Map Appendix F Travel Time Graphs Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 1

4 Appendix G Peak Hour Traffic Flows Appendix H V/C Ratios and Delay Plots Appendix I Travel Time Matrices Appendix J Level of Service Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 2

5 1 Introduction 1.1 Background Opus International Consultants Ltd (Opus) and Beca Ltd (Beca) have been commissioned to undertake transportation modelling to assess the effects of the completion of the Christchurch Northern Corridor (CNC). Opus have been commissioned by the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA), while Beca are a sub-consultant to Opus for the traffic modelling. The completion of the CNC includes two projects being progressed through separate planning and delivery processes, one undertaken by NZTA and the other by the Christchurch City Council (CCC). The projects are closely linked and for the purposes of the traffic modelling will be treated as a single project. NZTA has proposed the construction of the Northern Arterial (NArt) and the upgrade of Queen Elizabeth II Drive to four lanes (QEII Drive 4-Laning). The NArt and QEII Drive 4-Laning are part of the Roads of National Significance (RoNS) package and will provide improved efficiency to encourage regional and national economic development. A key strategic driver is to improve access to the Port of Lyttelton and the Christchurch CBD, while providing relief to the Main North Road corridor to facilitate opportunities for improved passenger transport and amenity values. CCC has proposed the construction of the Northern Arterial Extension (NAE) and the Cranford Street Upgrade (CSU). The NAE and CSU is a key component of CCC s planned transport network for north Christchurch, supporting the Christchurch Greater Urban Development Strategy and the Christchurch Northern Access Transport Investigation (CNATI). Those strategic projects have confirmed the need for the NAE and CSU works to address current transport deficiencies and to support projected residential and business growth to the north of the city, providing better access into the Central City from the north. 1.2 Report Purpose This report presents the results of traffic modelling to assess the effects of the operation of the CNC on the Christchurch road network. This will inform the Integrated Transportation Assessment (ITA) being prepared by Beca for the NArt and QEII Drive 4-Laning and other aspects of the assessment of environmental effects. The traffic modelling will also inform a Transport Assessment Addendum (TAA) report being prepared by Beca for CCC relating to the NAE/CSU project. The purpose of this report is to detail the findings of the forecast year (2031) traffic modelling that has been undertaken to assess the effects of the CNC project. The report also details the assumptions and inputs to the traffic modelling undertaken using regional and project level models. Although not included in the original scope, if required operational traffic modelling of individual intersections/interchanges, together with any modelling of construction traffic effects, will be included in the NZTA ITA and CCC TAA reports. This may include micro modelling of specific elements of the project that will be highlighted through the project assignment level modelling, but will exclude micro modelling of downstream effects. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 1

6 1.3 Project Description The CNC, as defined in this report, encompasses the following projects: Northern Arterial (NArt) Queen Elizabeth Four Laning (QEII Drive 4-Laning) Northern Arterial Extension (NAE) Cranford Street Upgrade (CSU). Figure 1-1 shows the location of the proposed works. The NArt comprises a new section of motorway starting from the SH1 Main North Road off ramp and traveling south to connect into QEII Drive. The NZTA project for the QEII Drive 4-Laning upgrades QEII Drive from 2 lanes and converts local roads connecting to QEII Drive to left-in leftout only. Additionally, as part of the NArt, there will be the widening of the Waimakariri Bridge northbound from two to three lanes, but no additional southbound lanes. The CCC project for the NAE proposes to construct of a new four-lane median divided arterial road, linking the proposed NArt with Cranford Street. CCC also proposes to upgrade Cranford Street to four-lanes between the NAE and the Innes Road intersection to the south, known as the CSU. Figure 1-1: CNC Overview Plan Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 2

7 1.4 Report Structure The remainder of this report is structured as follows: Chapter 2: Discusses the modelling system structure used to undertake the assessments Chapter 3: Contains a summary of the project modelled for the CNC Chapter 4: Details the assumptions used in the modelling Chapter 5: Details the trip demands, processes for disaggregation, application of factors and discusses the predicted effects for passenger transport (PT) and cyclists Chapter 6: Contains an assessment of the traffic effects Chapter 7: Contains the conclusions of this report. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 3

8 2 Model Structure The modelling for the CNC project uses the following components of a hierarchical modelling structure: A strategic Demand model that relates land use (such as population and employment) to person travel patterns at a strategic, region-wide level. The demand model used for this project is the Christchurch Transport Model (CTM) A Project Assignment model, which is similar in area to the demand model, but has a more refined network in the project area. This model loads the vehicle trip patterns predicted by the demand model onto the road network to test various options and investigate the traffic effects at a more detailed level. The assignment model used for this project is the Christchurch Assignment and Simulation Traffic (CAST) model. An Operational model, which uses micro-simulation to look at specific intersections and connections in even greater detail. It is the Project Assignment model, which is the main subject of this modelling report. Details are also included with respect to the assumptions used in the strategic Demand model. The hierarchy of models is required, as it is not practical to develop a system in a single model to cover both the strategic demand issues across the whole region and more detailed traffic effects. This hierarchical system is a common modelling approach and has previously been used successfully in Christchurch. A visual representation of how the project assignment model and demand model interact is give in Figure 2-1. Agreed Land Use Inputs CTM Demand Model Demands for Other Modes Network, Policy & Economic Inputs Regional Traffic Demands Improvement Projects Project Assignment Model Model Outputs Analysis and Reporting Figure 2-1: Modelling Structure 2.1 CTM Demand Model The CTM model covers the road network of Christchurch and the surrounding settlements of Kaiapoi, Rangiora, Woodend, Rolleston, Templeton, West Melton, Lincoln, Tai Tapu and Lyttelton. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 4

9 The road network includes the major roads and some minor roads in and around Christchurch. The land uses described in CTM include dwellings, employment and education. The model itself comprises of the following key modules: Trip Generation. This is where the number of person-trips are estimated as a function of the land use data (population, employment, school roll etc) Mode Choice. This is where the choice of preferred travel mode is determined, based on the relative costs of the various modes. The CTM modes for mode choice are car (driver and passengers combined) and passenger transport. Trips by car are converted into vehicle trips later in the model. The model also estimates the number of cycling trips although these are not fully modelled through to link flows Trip Distribution. This is where the trips produced in each zone (generally by the households), are matched to a preferred destination. This distribution is predicted as a function of the relative attractiveness of each destination zone and the travel costs to reach each destination Time of Day. This is where the proportion of daily trip making occurring in each period is calculated. These proportions change in response to changes in travel costs Trip Assignment. This is where the resulting travel demands, in the form of origin to destination trip tables, are loaded to the road and passenger transport networks. For the road assignment, an iterative process is used to firstly identify the lowest-cost route between each origin and destination, followed by an estimation of the speeds and delays on each route associated with the predicted traffic flows on the route. The CTM model is implemented in the Cube Voyager software, which is a well-used and proven platform for this kind of analysis. It is the CTM model that predicts the overall regional traffic patterns, based on the inputs and forecasts of population and employment growth, together with the assumed level of road and passenger transport infrastructure. This model also predicts how trip making will change in response to a major project, such as the CNC. Details of the inputs and results of the future year modelling are covered later in this report. 2.2 CAST Assignment Model The project assignment model is similar to the assignment module in the CTM model, but represents the road network in greater detail. It is only an assignment model in that it takes the traffic demands from the CTM model and assigns them to the road network. Land use data is not used directly in this part of the model and it only includes vehicle traffic trips (not passenger transport trips, although scheduled bus services are modelled). The project assignment model covers the same wider area as the CTM model, namely the greater Christchurch Region. However, it covers the area around the CNC in greater detail than the CTM model, as the road network within this study area has been reviewed and refined, as part of the development of the CAST model. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 5

10 3 Modelled Project This chapter summarises the CNC project that has been tested and reported in this document. Two scenarios have been developed for the modelling assessments, a Do-Minimum and an Option. The Do-Minimum does not have any of the works that make up the CNC. The Option network includes the NArt, QEII Drive 4-Laning, NAE and CSU. The Option network an additional lane northbound across the Waimakariri Bridge. For the purposes of modelling only, the Option network also includes permanent bus priority lanes on Main North Road, which it is expected may be enabled, when the NArt is constructed. All other network assumptions remain the same between the two scenarios. Table 3-1 summarises all the major network changes associated with the projects forming the CNC. Table 3-1: Extent of Works Summary Project Northern Arterial (NArt) QE II Drive 4-laning Northern Arterial Extension (NAE) Cranford Street Upgrade (CSU) Extent of Works 4 lane median divided motorway beginning from Chaneys (SH1 327/1.7) travelling south to join QEII Drive between Grimseys Road and Winters Road Intersection South facing on and off ramps connecting to the new alignment at Belfast Road Dumbbell interchange where the new alignment meets QEII Drive with both north and south facing on and off ramps One additional lane northbound across the Waimakariri Bridge 4-laning of QEII Drive between Main North Road and Marshland Road Conversion of QEII Drive s intersections with Grimseys Road, Winters Road, Philpotts Road and Hills Road to left-in / left-out only 4 lane extension of the Northern Arterial to Cranford Street 3 arm roundabout with slip lanes, where the NAE meets Cranford Street Construction of the NAE, also causes the severance of Winters Road and requires new access arrangements 4-laning of Cranford Street from the NAE roundabout to the Innes Road intersection The conversion of intersecting roads on Cranford Street between the NAE and Innes Road to left-in / left-out only Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 6

11 4 Model Inputs and Assumptions This chapter describes the key inputs and assumptions made to create the future forecasts in the CTM model and CAST assignment model. A technical note further detailing the network changes and assumptions is included in Appendix A. 4.1 Forecast Year The forecast year that has been used is This year is used, as it is around 10 years following the anticipated completion of the projects that comprise the CNC project. 4.2 Land Use Assumptions Traffic Design Group (TDG) ran the CTM model to produce the demand matrices. The demand matrices were then passed on to Quality Transport Planning (QTP) for conversion for use in CAST model. Land-use assumptions were based on a CTM land use scenario incorporating both the CCRP Rapid Recovery and the City Centre Blueprint, which was then applied to the finer-grain zoning structure of the CAST model. 4.3 Time Periods The CAST model covers the following three time periods: AM Peak (07:00 to 09:00) Inter-Peak (IP) (a 1-hour average of the 09:00 16:00 period) PM Peak (16:00 to 18:00) CTM time periods are the same as the CAST model Network Assumptions In terms of future network configurations, used in the CTM and CAST models, the assumptions have been developed in conjunction with NZTA and CCC and are agreed to represent the most likely overall future network. Appendix B contains a summary of the assumed network changes in place by 2031 for the Do- Minimum and Option models. For the purposes of modelling, it has been assumed that the planned bus priority on MNR is in place despite this being not part of the CNC project. 4.4 Economic Inputs The key economic inputs to the CTM model are land use changes, vehicle operating costs, passenger transport fares, parking costs and users value of time, which converts these monetary costs into equivalent minutes of travel. These inputs are the standard CTM Version 6 inputs. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 7

12 5 CTM and CAST Demands This chapter discusses the travel demands originating from the CTM model and how they are used in the CAST model. 5.1 CTM Trip Totals Vehicle Trip Demands The forecast year vehicle demands were obtained from the CTM model for the Do Minimum and Option, based on the inputs and assumptions described earlier. Additionally demands for cycling and PT were also obtained from the CTM model. Matrices were received by period for the following trip purposes: Home Based Work Home Based Education Home Based Shopping Home Based Other Home Based Social and Recreational Non-Home Based Other Employers Business trips Medium/Heavy Commercial Vehicle. Table 5-1 displays the CTM vehicle daily trip totals by purpose as received from QTP for Table 5-1: 2031 CTM Total Vehicle Demands Total Trips Purpose Daily Do-Minimum Option Home Based Work 270, ,324 Home Based Education 88,599 88,606 Home Based Shopping 154, ,245 Home Based Other 147, ,131 Home base Social and Recreational 143, ,334 Non-Home Based Other 312, ,095 Employers Business 57,054 57,059 Total 1,172,704 1,172,794 Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 8

13 From Table 5-1, the following can be determined: Between the Do-Minimum and Option networks, there is a small increase in the total vehicle trips for each purpose in the Option network, except home based shopping vehicle trips The overall traffic growth in vehicle trip totals is negligible, being less than 0.01%. The disaggregation of the CTM vehicle trip matrices for use in the CAST model is covered in Section Trip Distribution Analysis We have analysed the change in trip distribution with a sector comparison of daily movements. The sectors in the CTM model are structured as shown in Appendix C Vehicle Demands Vehicle demands obtained from the CTM model are tabulated in Appendix C. Table C-3 is a sectorised origin-destination matrix of vehicle trips for all zones within the CTM. From Table C-3 in Appendix C, the following can be determined: Overall, there is only a very small increase of 90 (>0.01%) in the total number of daily vehicle trips. However, there were significant changes in the trip distribution between multiple zones There were significant changes in the trip distribution to and from Waimakariri: There is an increase in the number of daily trips from Waimakariri to Mairehau and CBD of 1,160 (31%) and 1,820 (25%) respectively There is an increase in the number of daily trips from Mairehau and CBD to Waimakariri of 650 (53%) and 570 (35%) respectively Daily trips from Waimakariri to Mcleans Island, Belfast, Harewood and Burnside decreased by 440 (6%), 394 (9%), 135 (10%) and 207 (7%) respectively There was a decrease of 2,070 (3%) daily trips within Waimakariri. Trips within Mairehau and the CBD also decreased by between 320 to 370 (around 1 to 2%) Passenger Transport Demands PT demands obtained from the CTM model are tabulated in Appendix C. Table C-2 is a sectorised origin-destination matrix of PT trips for all zones within the CTM. From Table C-2 in Appendix C the following can be determined: Overall, there are negligible changes in trip distribution and changes that occur are very small The largest increase in the number of PT daily trips to a zone occurred in Waimakariri. There were 42 (5%) additional trips made to Waimakariri from all zones Mairehau had the largest increase in daily trips leaving the zone with an additional 19 (<1%) trips away from Mairehau to all zones The largest decrease in number of PT daily trips from a zone occurred in Belfast. There were 30 (1 to 2%) fewer trips from Belfast from all zones Between the Do-Minimum and the Option, there is a noticeably fewer daily trips being made to Mairehau from all other zones. In total, there were 32 (<1%) fewer daily trips made to Mairehau in the Options than in the Do-Minimum In the Option, there were 18 fewer daily trips made from Belfast to the CBD, which amounted to a 2% decrease in the number of daily trips Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 9

14 There is greater number of PT daily trips made from Mairehau to zones in the North and West of Christchurch. These zones include Waimakariri, Belfast, Burnside and Riccarton with a total increase in daily trips of 8 (7%), 3 (4%), 8 (2%) and 7 (1%) respectively Cycling Demands Cycling demands obtained from the CTM model are tabulated in Appendix C. Table C-1 is a sectorised origin-destination matrix of cycling trips for all zones within the CTM. From Table C-1 in Appendix C the following can be determined: Overall, there are negligible changes in trip distribution and changes that do occur are very small Mairehau had the greatest decrease in daily trips occurring to the zone with 26 (<1%) fewer trips made from all zones. Mairehau also had the largest increase in trips away from the zone with 14 (<1%) increase in daily trips to all zones The CBD was the zone that had the largest decrease in total trips with 47 (<1%) fewer daily trips in the Option than the Do-Minimum Between the Do-Minimum and the Option, there are noticeably fewer cycling trips being made within Waimakariri and from Waimakariri to other zones. Overall, there were 45 (1 to 2%) fewer daily trips made within and to Waimakariri There was an increase in the number of daily trips between Waimakariri and the CBD by 1% The total number of daily trips from Belfast decreased by 39 (2%) with intra-zonal trips decreasing by 10 (2%) trips An increase in cycling daily trips occurred between Mairehau and the surrounding zones Burnside, Burwood and Mcleans Island of approximately 1% to each of them. 5.3 CAST Model Demands The future year project assignment model demands were taken from the CTM model for the Do- Minimum and the Option for the three time periods discussed in Section Disaggregation The disaggregation process was undertaken by QTP. The disaggregation process used to convert the CTM model zones to the project assignment model zones is documented in the memo provided by QTP and contained in Appendix D. The CTM demands have been disaggregated (split) from the CTM zone system to the CAST zone system for the future year traffic matrices. The QTP memorandum on the disaggregation process identifies some widespread, but generally modest differences, in the land use inputs from the last official version of the CTM and CAST models (version 6, with the land use inputs referred to as the CCRP Rapid Recovery scenario). Following discussion with TDG, it has been confirmed that the land use inputs for the CNC Option modelling are for a CTM land use scenario incorporating both the CCRP Rapid Recovery and the City Centre Blueprint, which when applied to the finer-grain zoning structure of the CAST can result in some differences in comparison to the CAST land use inputs. It is understood from TDG that this may explain the land use differences noted by QTP. However, it has been agreed with NZTA that the modest land use differences are unlikely to significantly affect the modelling undertaken for the CNC. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 10

15 5.3.2 Variable and Fixed Matrices Modelling undertaken in this report has been done with a variable matrix structure. The Do- Minimum and Option networks were run with different matrices designed to represent their respective scenarios. Table 5-2 illustrates the matrix structure used in this modelling report. In summary, the Do- Minimum network was run with Do-Minimum demand matrices and the Option network was run with Option demand matrices. Table 5-2: Variable Trip Matrix Structure Variable Matrices Network Do-Minimum Demand Matrix Option Do-Minimum Option An analysis with a fixed matrix structure was also undertaken and is reported in Section 6.6. In this scenario, the Option network is run with the Do-Minimum demand matrices. The primary modelling done in this report accounts for induced traffic by using the variable matrix approach above and is in accordance with NZTA s Economic Evaluation Manual. This is currently considered to be best practice for studying the traffic effects of a project. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 11

16 6 Traffic Network Results 6.1 Introduction This chapter describes the traffic effects of the CNC project on the wider Christchurch region, as well as the local network effects. It is based on comparisons of the Do-Minimum and Option scenarios (as described in Section 3) from the CAST model. The following abbreviations are used in this section of the report for the scenarios assessed: DM = Do-Minimum network with Do-Minimum demand matrix OPT = Option network with Option demand matrix OPT dm = Option network with Do-Minimum demand matrix. Daily flows have been calculated from the project assignment model by factoring the AM, IP and PM 1-hour flows and combining them to derive the daily flows. This calculation is done by applying the following factors for light vehicles: AM Peak = 2.61 Inter-peak = 8.49 PM Peak = 2.61 Separate factors were used to derive daily flows for HCV s and buses. These factors are the standard factors used with CAST. Due to the higher factor in the inter-peak, changes in flows at this time have a greater influence on the changes at a daily level. This section covers the effect of the project on daily flows, peak flows and heavy commercial vehicles. The section also makes use of screenlines to examine the direction effects that the project has on traffic flows. The section also reports on travel times, level of service, upstream and downstream effects and induced traffic effects. 6.2 Effects on Daily Traffic Volumes This section of the report illustrates the effect of the operation of the CNC project on the traffic flows on the strategic routes, major arterials and local roads in the vicinity of the project. Figure 6-1 shows the daily flows around the project area in the Do-Minimum network and Figure 6-2 the same information for the option network. There is also a flow differences plot provided and flow differences at key location on the network tabulated in this section. The location of where these flows are taken is shown in Figure E-1 in Appendix E. Figure 6-3 is a flow difference plot obtained from the CAST model and shows the changes in daily traffic volumes between the Do-Minimum and Option networks in Positive (Green) shows where the traffic is predicted to increase compared to the Do-Minimum and negative (Blue) indicates where traffic is expected to decrease as a result of the Option. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 12

17 Figure 6-1: Daily Do-Minimum Flows Figure 6-2: Daily Option Flows Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 13

18 From Figure 6-1and Figure 6-2 the following observations can be made: In both the Do-minimum and Option networks the majority of traffic travels towards the city centre on the major routes such as the West Belfast Bypass, Main North Road and Marshland Road and in the in the case of the option the Northern Arterial. It is clear that in the Option network that this is decrease in daily volume on the West Belfast Bypass, Main North Road and Marshland Road corridors. With a large volume of traffic opting to use the NArt. South of the project area traffic volumes appear relatively consistent between the Do-Minimum and Option network as traffic disperses into the denser road network found near the city. Figure 6-3: Predicted Changes in 2031 Daily Flow between Do-Minimum and Option The following observations can be made when looking at Figure 6-3: Strategic routes north of the CNC show an overall increase in daily traffic volume between the Do-Minimum and Option Parallel routes to the NArt all show a decrease in daily traffic volumes between the Do-Minimum and the Option. In particular, major routes such as the West Belfast Bypass, MNR and Marshland Road all show less daily traffic with the completion of the CNC Roads that connect immediately south of the CNC, such as Cranford Street and Innes Road, show increases in daily traffic volumes There is a significant increase in the amount of daily traffic traveling on the widened QEII Drive between the Do-Minimum and Option network. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 14

19 6.2.1 Strategic Routes Table 6-1 below shows the changes in vehicles per day (vpd) on the strategic routes in the vicinity of the project. From Table 6-1, the following observations can be made: On the Christchurch Northern Motorway (CNM) over the Waimakariri River, there is an increase of 4,100 vpd in the Option from the Do-Minimum. Whilst on MNR over the Waimakariri River, there is a decrease of 1,000 vpd in the Option from the Do-Minimum. This results in a net increase of 3,100 vpd over the Waimakariri River 4,900 fewer vpd traveling along the West Belfast Bypass in the Option network The NArt, only present in the Option network, has 42,200 vpd. Approximately 11,600 of these vehicles leave/enter the NArt at the QEII Drive Interchange. A further 30,600 vpd are to/from the NAE/CSU. Table 6-1: Changes in Daily Vehicles on Strategic Routes No. Road Name Location DM (veh/day) OPT (veh/day) Change OPT DM % S1 SH1 North of lineside road interchange 21,800 22, % S2 SH1 North of Tram road interchange 48,900 50,900 2,000 4% S3 SH1 South of Tram road interchange 63,700 67,800 4,100 6% S4 Belfast Bypass West of MNR 28,500 23,600 4,900 17% S5 Johns Road Between Wilkinson Road and Sawyers Arms Rd 37,000 33,600 3,400 9% S6 MNR Over the Waimak Bridge 10,600 9,600 1,000 9% S7 NArt Between Belfast and QEII interchange 42,200 42,200 0% S8 NAE Between QEII and CSU 30,600 30,600 0% Major Arterials Table 6-2 shows the changes in daily traffic volumes on the major arterials in the vicinity of the CNC. From Table 6-2, the following observations can be made: On the northern portion of MNR, there are 15,200 fewer vpd in the Option than in the Do- Minimum. This decrease goes up to 17,300 vpd on MNR to the north of QEII Drive On the northern portion of Marshland Road, there are 3,700 fewer vpd in the Option than in the Do-Minimum. This decrease goes up to 10,800 vpd on Marshland Road to the north of QEII Drive On Cranford Street, north of McFaddens Road, there are an additional 20,900 vpd On QEII Drive, west of the NArt/QEII Drive Interchange, there is an increase of 10,500 vpd in the Option network over the Do-Minimum On QEII Drive, east of the NArt/QEII Drive Interchange, there is an increase of 4,300 vpd in the Option network over the Do-Minimum. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 15

20 6.2.3 Local Roads Table 6-2: Changes in Daily Vehicles on Major Arterials No. Road Name Location DM (veh/day) OPT (veh/day) Change OPT DM % M1 MNR Between Dickeys and Factory Road 25,200 10,000 15,200 60% M2 MNR Between Lagan and Englefield Street 28,700 10,300 18,400 64% M3 MNR North of QEII 39,600 22,300 17,300 44% M4 MNR South of QEII Drive 39,500 31,900 7,600 19% M5 MNR West of Cranford Street 25,600 25, % M6 Cranford Street North of CSU roundabout 26,600 18,300 8,300 31% M7 Cranford Street North of Mcfaddens 27,800 48,700 20,900 75% M8 Cranford Street Between Innes and Knowles Street 22,600 41,600 19,000 84% M9 Cranford Street Southeast of Innes Road 22,300 30,500 8,200 37% M10 Marshlands Road North of Chaneys 17,800 14,100 3,700 21% M11 Marshlands Road Between Guthries and Turners Road 20,900 10,900 10,000 48% M12 Marshlands Road Between Hawkins and Prestons Road 23,100 12,300 10,800 47% M13 Marshlands Road North of QEII 35,500 25,600 9,900 28% M14 Marshlands Road South of QEII Drive 28,000 21,700 6,300 23% M15 QEII Drive West of NArt interchange 26,100 36,600 10,500 40% M16 QEII Drive East of NArt interchange 23,900 28,200 4,300 18% M17 Innes Road South of QEII Drive 19,200 17,700 1,500 8% M18 Innes Road East of Cranford Street Upgrade 13,000 14,900 1,900 15% Table 6-3 shows the changes in vpd on the local roads in the vicinity of the project. From Table 6-3, the following observations can be made: There is a marginal change in the daily traffic volumes on Prestons Road (-1%/5%). Belfast Road, east of MNR, has an increase of 4,300 vpd in the Option over the Do-Minimum. However, on the other side of the Belfast Road Interchange, there is a decrease of 200 vpd. The increase is likely due to the installation of south facing ramps on Belfast Road connecting to the NArt Innes Road southwest of the Cranford Street/Innes Road intersection has an increase in traffic volume of 3,600 vpd The local roads south of the CNC all have increases in traffic. These roads include Mays Road, Malvern Street, Mersey Road, Shernorne Street and Heaton Street. All these road show an increase in vpd in the order of magnitude of between 1,600 and 2,300 vpd. Table 6-3: Changes in Daily Vehicles on Local Roads No. Road Name Location DM (veh/day) OPT (veh/day) Change OPT DM % L1 Prestons Road East of Grimseys Road 7,100 7, % L2 Prestons Road West of Marshlands Road 7,400 7, % L3 Belfast Road East of MNR 4,200 8,500 4, % L4 Belfast Road West of Marshlands Road 2,700 2, % L5 Tram Road West of SH1 interchange 9,900 10, % L6 Reveils Road North of SH1 interchange with lineside 3,600 3, % L7 Innes Road West of Cranford street Innes road intersection 14,700 18,300 3,600 24% L8 McFaddens Road Southwest of Cranford Street 7,100 6, % L9 Rutland Street Between McFaddens and Weston Street 5,800 5, % L10 Mays Rd Between Rutland and Papanui Street 900 2,600 1, % L11 Malvern Street Southwest of Cranford Street 1,700 4,000 2, % L12 Mersey Street Southeast of Innes Road 4,100 6,300 2,200 54% L13 Sherborn Street South of Cranford street 17,200 19,200 2,000 12% L14 Heaton Street South west of Innes Road 12,200 13,800 1,600 13% L15 Akaroa Road Between Briggs and Hills Road 11,800 7,100 4,700 40% L16 Shirley Road East of Hills Road 15,800 15, % L17 Hills Road South of Shirley Road 19,800 19, % L18 Hills Road Between Akora and Shirley Road 11,700 10, % Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 16

21 6.3 Effects on Peak Hour Traffic Volumes The effect of the CNC on AM and PM peak hour flows is discussed in this section. Tables detailing the changes in volume between the Do-Minimum and Option can be found in Appendix G. The following observations can be made about the AM peak hour flow: On strategic routes, the West Belfast Bypass has the greatest change in traffic volumes, which decrease by 330 (14%) veh/hr All other strategic routes showed a negligible change in traffic volumes The major of arterials parallel to the NArt, MNR and Marshland Road, had the largest decrease in traffic volumes between the Do-Minimum and Option: Volumes on MNR decrease by between 500-1,500 (20-70%) veh/hr Volumes on Marshland Road decrease by between (30-50%) veh/hr Cranford Street northwest of Innes Road had the largest increase in traffic on arterial roads, increasing by about 1,750 (100%) veh/hr In terms of local roads: Innes Road, southwest of Cranford Street, had the largest increase in traffic volume of 380 (36%) veh/hr Rutland Street showed the biggest decrease in traffic volumes of 310 (51%) veh/hr Mersey Street had the largest percentage increase in volume of 115%, however, this amounted to 300 additional vehicles The following observations can be made about the PM peak hour flow: For strategic routes the largest increase in volume occurred south of the Tram Road interchange. Volumes here increase by 540 (9%) veh/hr. The largest decrease in volume occurred on the West Belfast Bypass of 400 (20%) veh/hr. The largest decreases in traffic for major arterials occurred on MNR and Marshland Road north of QEII Drive: Volumes on MNR decrease by between 1,350-1,590 (40-70%) veh/hr Volumes on Marshland Road decrease by between (15-40%) veh/hr Cranford Street, northwest of McFaddens Road, had the greatest increase in traffic in arterial roads, increasing by about 1,590 (67%) veh/hr In terms of local roads: The biggest increase in traffic volume occurred on Innes Road, southwest of Cranford Street of 470 (37%) veh/hr Belfast Road had the greatest percentage increase in volume of 108%, which amounted to about 390 veh/hr The biggest decrease in traffic volume came on Mersey Street of 410 veh/hr (72%). 6.4 Heavy Commercial Vehicle (HCV) flows This section discusses the effect of the CNC on the freight movements around Christchurch City. Although the CAST model does predict the movements of trucks, it should be noted that the intent is more to show the number and origin/destination of trucks, rather than necessarily the routes taken. This is due to routing being affected by very different factors to those which apply to private drivers and those in smaller vehicles. As a consequence the truck volumes from CAST (and most Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 17

22 strategic models) are more indicative of the changes that could occur rather than predicting the number of trucks on a particular road during a particular time period. Heavy Commercial Vehicle (HCV) flows were extracted from the CAST model and are presented in the form of daily flows in Table G-3 in Appendix G. The difference in HCV flows between DoMinimum and Option is also shown in Figure 6 4. From Table G-3, it is clear that between the Do-Minimum and Option a large portion of HCV traffic has shifted from MNR and Marshland Road onto the Northern Arterial. In the Do-Minimum, there is a combined HCV flow of 3,800 vpd on MNR and Marshland Road. In the Option, there is increase in the total HCV flows from 3,000 vpd to 4,350 vpd across MNR, Marshland roads and the NArt with 2,300 vpd being on the NArt. Daily flows from the CAST model also show that HCV flows on the local roads south of the CNC project increase, particularly on Mersey Road and Malvern Street by 130 (81%) and 90 (300%) respectively. From Figure 6 4, the following observations can be made about the likely effect of the Project and the full CNC on truck routes and volumes: Similarly to general traffic, truck volumes on the parallel routes to the CNC are expected to drop as trucks transfer onto the CNC. This includes a reduction in truck numbers through the residential and retail areas of Belfast and Redwood on Main North Road. This switch is shown as extending south of the end of the Project, with more trucks expected to use the lower end of Cranford Street and Innes Road to the west However, parallel routes like Main North Road, Papanui Road (the main PT corridor), Hills Road and Westminster Street are all expected to see a reduction in the number of trucks using them Figure 6-4: Daily Truck Volume Differences with CNC Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 18

23 6.5 Project Screenlines To better understand the effects of the Project on the regional and city-wide road network, forecast traffic volumes north and south of the Project across screenlines have been extracted from the models. Screenlines are made up of separate road links, which generally capture the major traffic movements moving in a certain direction. It provides information on which roads or corridors are used, and how these change as a result of the Project. As noted previously, the biggest effect of a new road is typically existing drivers re-routing to take advantage of the better travel conditions provided. Traffic volumes across screenlines to the north of the Project area are shown in Table 6.4. Based on the daily traffic volumes reported in Table 6.4 the following observations can be made about the effects of the full CNC (north of the Project components): Table 6-4: Forecast AWDT (Vehicles) North of Project 2031 Road Location DM Opt Diff % Diff Waimakariri River North of QEII Dr CNM 62,400 67,000 +4,600 7% MNR 11,100 10,100-1,000-9% TOTAL 73,500 77,100 +3,600 5% SH1 Johns Rd 36,700 33,900-2,800-8% Gardiners Rd 10,600 8,400-2,200-21% Main North Rd 38,600 22,500-16,100-42% Grimseys Rd 4,500 4, % Northern Arterial N/A 41, ,500 N/A Hills Rd 4,100 5, % Marshland Rd 34,800 25,600-9,200-27% Burwood Rd 7,400 5,800-1,600-22% TOTAL 136, , ,200 7% It is expected that there will be only a small increase in the number of vehicles crossing the Waimakariri River, increasing by just under 4,000 vehicles per day (a 5% increase on what would be expected without the CNC in place). It is likely that the capacity constraint imposed by keeping the two lanes southbound on the bridge across the River is restraining the increase in cross river trips All of this increase across the Waimakariri is on the Christchurch Northern Motorway (CNM), and also includes about 1,000 vehicles switching across from the old Waimakariri River bridge to a more attractive route. This indicates that this additional traffic is likely to be heading for the Northern Arterial, as the CNC cannot be easily accessed from Main North Road and the old Waimakariri River bridge At the screenline immediately north of QEII Drive (just north of this Project) it is easy to see the effect of the CNC. Traffic volumes on all the major north-south parallel routes to the CNC are expected to drop, with decreases of up to 16,100 vpd predicted. Moving further away from Main North Road and Marshland Road across this screenline, the predicted drop in north-south traffic volumes with the CNC is less, but is still likely to have a positive impact, especially on roads that travel through residential areas (such as Gardiners Road and Burwood Road). The total daily volume of traffic across this screenline is expected to increase by just 10,000 vpd (up 7% on the situation without the CNC). Some of this increase will be induced traffic with the remainder comprising vehicles that double back on their journeys to get to or from the CNC (and Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 19

24 the NArt in particular). For instance, prior to the CNC, travelling between b Redwood and Belfast would involve travelling north along Mainn North Road. With the CNC, C this tripp can also be made by firstly travelling south to QEII Drive, and then north along the NArt. N Whilst t faster, this latter rerouting would involve two crossings of this screenline rather than just one The only existing road forecast to see ann increase in traffic is Hillss Rd (north of QEII Drive). Although daily traffic volumes are expected to increase by just over 20%, thiss represents an increase of less than 1,000 vpd. This increase would raise the daily traffic volume on Hills Road from 4,100 vpd up to approximately 5,000 vpd. This is considered to be well within the typical capacity of this type of road Effect on Travel Time Peak Hour Travel Time Routes Figure 6-5 below shows the travel time routes reported for the Do-Minimum andd Option networks. These routes were modelled in the peak direction in the respective AM A and PM peak hours. For these routes, graphs were generated showing the travell time on the route and these can be found in Appendix F. These graphs are travel time vs distance plots, which show how long it takes to travel a particular distance. Figure 6-5: : Travel Time Route Map Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 20

25 From the graphs in Appendix F, the following observations can be made: Across both the AM and PM peaks, there was an improvement in travel time for the Option network over the Do-Minimum: In the AM peak, there was an improvement in travel time of between 3-5 minutes across all routes assessed In the PM peak, there was an improvement in travel time of between 5-8 minutes across all routes assessed Travel time improvement on routes via the MNR and Marshland Road are likely to be a result of a decrease vehicle demand on these routes. With the NArt in place, a significant reduction in trips on these routes has occurred therefore improving the travel time Improvements in travel time on the West Belfast Bypass are likely to be a result of a combination of a reduction in vehicles on this route and the increased capacity on the Waimakariri Bridge going northbound, which is most evident in the PM peak Travel times on Prestons Road differed only marginally between Do-Minimum and Option networks. Travel time distribution was almost identical between Do-Minimum and Option in both directions on Prestons Road Travel times on QEII Drive were shown to be similar between Do-Minimum and Option networks. The Option had a higher travel speed, evident from the shallower gradients on the graph, but had extra delay associated with the new interchange From Woodend to the City Centre in the AM peak, the travel time via the NArt was approximately 30 minutes. In the Do-Minimum, travels times on MNR and Marshland Road were about 40 minutes for both routes. With the CNC in place, travel time is expected to drop to about 32 minutes resulting in a travel time improvement of 8 minutes on those existing routes From the City Centre to Woodend, the travel time on the NArt was approximately 23 minutes in the PM peak. The Do-Minimum travels times on MNR and Marshland Road were about 30 minutes and 32 minutes respectively, resulting in an improvement of between 7 and 9 minutes travel time with the CNC in place Sub-Period Travel Time Variability Further analysis was done on travel times to establish the effect that the CAST sub-periods had on travel time. The sub-periods in the CAST model are structured as shown in Table 6-5. Table 6-5: CAST Sub-period Structure Time Period Sub Period Length 7:00 7:30 am 0.5 hours 7:00 9:00 am 7:30 8:00 am 0.5 hours 8:00 9:00 am 1.0 hours 4:00 4:30 pm 0.5 hours 4:00 6:00 pm 4:30 5:30 pm 1.0 hours 5:30 6:00 pm 0.5 hours Results of the analysis showed there was a high degree of variability in travel times within the three sub-periods of any given time period. Graphs of these results can also be found in Appendix F. This will be examined further in the subsequent NZTA and CCC effects assessment reporting. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 21

26 6.6.3 Travel Time Matrices Travel times on the wider network were also sourced from the CAST model. These travel times are presented in the form of origin-destination matrices found in Appendix I. From the tables in Appendix I, the following observations can be made: In the AM peak hour: There was a decrease in travel time between zones north of the Waimakariri River (Rangiora, Woodend and Kaiapoi) to the City Centre, Papanui and Riccarton Travel times between Belfast and the City Centre and Papanui also decreased significantly The largest decrease in travel time was Woodend to the City Centre of 12 (30%) minutes All increases in travel time were negligible. In the IP peak hour: There was a significant decrease in travel time between zones north of the Waimakariri River (Rangiora, Woodend and Kaiapoi) to the City Centre and Papanui Travel times between Belfast and the City Centre, Riccarton and Papanui also decreased significantly The single largest decrease in travel time between two locations was 7 (29%) minutes between Papanui and Woodend The largest increase in travel time occurred from Riccarton to Papanui of 1 (8%) minutes. In the PM peak hour: There was a significant decrease in travel time between zones north of the Waimakariri River (Rangiora, Woodend and Kaiapoi) to the City Centre and Papanui Travel times between Belfast and the City Centre, Riccarton and Papanui also decreased significantly The single largest decrease in travel time between two locations was 13 (32%) minutes between the City Centre and Woodend The largest increase in travel time occurred from Kaiapoi to Woodend of 2 (15%) minutes Total Travel Time vs Distance Travelled The total change in distance travelled and travel time between the Do-Minimum and Option are presented in Table 6-6. Table 6-6: Total Distance and Travel Time AM PM DM OPT Change DM OPT Change Transient Queues Over Capacity Queues Link Cruise Time Total Travel Time Travel Distance Average Speed From Table 6-6 it can be seen that the Option performs better than the Do-Minimum in all statistics analysed. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 22

27 6.7 Effect on Level of Service An assessment of the level of service (LoS) likely to be experienced by road users has been undertaken using outputs from the CAST model. The assessment for the road sections between intersections uses link volumes taken directly from the model Level of service for road sections is a measure describing the operational conditions within a traffic stream, based on service measures such as speed, freedom to manoeuvre, traffic interruptions, and comfort and convenience. Six levels of service are defined, using the letters from A to F, with LoS A representing the best operating conditions and LoS F the worst. For road sections, the calculation of the level of service is dependent on the type of road being assessed, with different criteria applied to multi-lane motorways and expressways, rural highways and urban roads. The reason for using different criteria for these different road types is due to differences in the expectations of road users on different types of roads. For multi-lane and two-lane highways the LoS was calculated using the method detailed in the Highway Capacity Manual. For urban roads the LoS was determined using the LoS of intersections along the length of the road. This was done because on roads with many intersecting streets the LoS is governed by the LoS of the intersections. The LoS of the intersections was determined using the total delay time at the intersection. The definition for each LoS can be found in Appendix J as found in the HCM Results The full results of the LoS analysis can be found in Appendix J. A summary of the key findings is given below. For urban roads The only intersection which showed a decline in LoS from Do-Minimum to Option was the Main North Road/Belfast Road intersection. The LoS dropped from B to C, which occurred in both the AM and PM peaks. The Main North Road/ Johns Road intersection showed notable improvement in LoS from D to B All other intersection examined either improved in LoS or remained unchanged. For Two-lane and Multilane Highways Marshland Road improved in LoS from E in the Do-Minimum to C in the Option. QEII Drive changed from a Two-lane Highway to a Multilane Highway between Do-Minimum and Option. The LoS declined from B to E when this occurred. The LoS was assessed on the NArt to be B 6.8 Upstream and Downstream Effect This section examines the upstream and downstream effects of the operation of CNC. Figure 6-6 to Figure 6-8 are flow difference plots obtained from the CAST model. The figures show the changes in daily traffic between the Do-Minimum and Option in Positive (Green) shows where the traffic is predicted to increase compared to the Do-Minimum and negative (Blue) indicates where traffic is expected to decrease. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 23

28 Figure 6-6: Predicted Changes in Daily Flows North of Waimakariri River Figure 6-6 illustrates the effect on daily traffic flows with the CNC on the area north of the project. The following observations can be made from Figure 6-6 with support from the information in Section 6.2.3, 6.6 and 6.10: There is a large increase in the traffic volume on SH1 north of the Waimakariri River (9,200 vpd) A large portion of traffic leaves SH1 at Lineside Road and continues north on the local road Revells Road (40%) Travel time graphs show a steeper gradient in this area indicating a decrease in travel speed Delay plots indicate an increase in delay along SH1 and increase in delay on the off ramps at Tram Road, Ohaka Road and Lineside Road. Delay plots also indicate significant delay generated on SH1 where the Tram Road on-ramp connects to SH1. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 24

29 Figure 6-7: Predicted Changes in Daily Flows around Cranford Street Figure 6-7 illustrates the effect on daily traffic flows with the CNC has on the area south of the project. The following observations can be made from Figure 6-7 with support from the information in Section 6.2.3, 6.6 and 6.10: There is a general increase in the daily traffic volumes between the Do-Minimum and Option on Cranford Street and the roads that surround Cranford Street There is a large increase in the volume of daily traffic on Cranford Street north of McFaddens Road (+18,800 vpd) Travel time routes on Cranford Street have a sharp increase in gradient, indicating a significant reduction in free flow speed or increase in delays The large increase in volumes and delays on Cranford Street coupled with the general increase in traffic volumes on surrounding roads indicate that traffic may be re-routing to avoid delays on Cranford Street. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 25

30 Gardiners Road Harewood Road Memorial Ave Figure 6-8 : Predicted Changes in Daily Flows West of CNC Figure 6-8 shows there is a general decrease in the traffic volumes to the west of the CNC. In particular, routes such as Memorial Avenue, Harewood Road and Gardiners Road show a reduction in traffic volumes with the CNC. 6.9 Induced Traffic Analysis Modelling in this section of the report was done to analysis the amount of induced traffic on the network. To do this an artificial situation was created by changing the matrix inputs to the Option model which would be able to quantify the changed traffic. The Option model was also run with both the Do-Minimum matrix, which eliminates any traffic matrix changes caused by the network configuration and allows the induced traffic to be identified. The analysis process involved examining routes where traffic flow had increased or decreased due to the assignment of the different matrices. Traffic flows were obtained for the same locations as in Section 6.2 for strategic routes, major arterials and local roads in the vicinity of the CNC. The full results can be found in Table G-4 of Appendix G. Table 6-7 below presents the key findings on the induced traffic relating to the CNC project corridor. Figure 6-9 also shows the changes in daily traffic between the Option matrices and Do-Minimum Matrices in 2031 on the Option network. Positive (Green) shows where the traffic is predicted to increase compared to the Do-Minimum matrix and negative (Blue) indicates where traffic is expected to decrease. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 26

31 Table 6-7: Induced Traffic Effects Strategic Routes Major Arterials Local Roads No. Road Name Location OPT (veh/day) OPT dm Change (veh/day) OPT OPTdm % S2 SH1 North of Tram road interchange 50,400 48,200 2,200 5% S3 SH1 and MNR Across Waimakariri Bridge 76,700 73,600 3,100 4% S4 Belfast Bypass West of MNR 23,200 24, % S7 NArt Between Belfast and QEII interchange 41,700 36,500 5,200 14% S8 NAE Between QEII and CSU 30,100 26,100 4,000 15% No. Road Name Location OPT (veh/day) OPT dm Change (veh/day) OPT OPTdm % M7 Cranford Street North of Mcfaddens 48,300 45,500 2,800 6% M8 Cranford Street Between Innes and Knowles Street 40,600 39,300 1,300 3% No. Road Name Location OPT (veh/day) OPT dm Change (veh/day) OPT OPTdm % L3 Belfast Road East of MNR 8,500 7, % Figure 6-9: Change in Daily Flow between OPT matrix and DM matrix From Table 6-5 and Figure 6-9, the following observations can be made: On strategic routes the induced traffic was no more than ±5% of the total daily traffic with the exception of the NArt (14%) and NAE (15%) On major arterials the induced traffic was no more than ±6% of the total daily traffic On local roads the induced traffic was no more than +5% of the total daily traffic, with the exception of Belfast Road (10%). Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 27

32 6.10 Delays and Vehicle/Capacity Ratios Delays and Vehicle/Capacity (V/C) ratios were compared across both the Do-Minimum and Option networks. This investigation was carried out to identify areas where the operation of the CNC had more significant effects on the network. Figures showing network wide delay and V/C ratios are shown below, with increases being shown in Green and decreases in Blue. Figure 6-10: AM Peak Changes in Delay Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 28

33 Figure 6-11: AM Peak Changes in V/C Ratio Figure 6-12: PM Peak Changes in Delay Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 29

34 Figure 6-13: PM Peak Changes in V/C Ratio Review of Figure 6-10, 6-7, 6-8 and 6-9 show that generally across the network on parallel routes to the CNC, there is a decrease in both delays and V/C ratio. However, the figures also show that there is an increase in delay and V/C ratio to both the north and south of the proposed CNC. This is particularly evident in the PM peak. Areas that have been adversely affected by the CNC are looked at in more detail below. Figures referred to in this section can be found in Appendix H. Figures H-1 to H-8 refer to delays, figures H- 9 to H-16 refer to V/C ratios and figures H-17 to H-24 refer to volumes. The following observations can be made when looking at the figures in Appendix H: Delays Delay plots shown in Figures H-1 to H-8 show that the largest delays occur in the PM peak period south of the CNC. Of the delays in the PM peak period the largest delays occur to side roads that connect to Cranford Street. These delays are as high as 2minutes in some cases and 40 seconds longer than in the Do-minimum. There are significant delays in the AM peak period north of the Waimakariri River but these are only slightly higher than the Do-minimum, making these unavoidable delays that are part of natural traffic growth. V/C ratios these have been banded with different colours representing different V/C ratios. Blue is 75-85, Magenta is 85-95, red is and grey is 100 and above. In the AM peak period the section of road between Innes and Malvern road has V/C ratio between 95 and 100 in the Option. In the do minimum the highest V/C ratio on Cranford Street occurs north of McFaddens Road of between 85 to 95. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 30

35 In the PM peak period there are high V/C ratios on many of the side roads that connect to Cranford Street, with McFaddens Road having a V/C ratio in excess of 100 in the Option. Additionally on Cranford Street south of Innes Road there is a V/C ratio of between 85 to 95. The Do-Minimum in the PM Peak Period has higher V/C ratios along Cranford Street ranging from 75 to 95 north of Innes Road. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 31

36 7 Summary Opus and Beca have been commissioned to undertake transportation modelling to assess the effects of the completion of the CNC. This will inform the ITA being prepared by Beca for the NArt and QEII Drive 4-Laning and the TAA report being prepared by Beca for CCC relating to the NAE/CSU project. This report details the assumptions and inputs to the traffic modelling that has been undertaken at a regional and project assignment level. The purpose of this report is to detail the findings of the forecast year (2031) traffic modelling that has been undertaken to assess the effects of this project. The key findings from the strategic model included: Overall total number of daily vehicle trips changed marginally between Option and Do-Minimum (>0.01%). However, there was significant change in the trips distribution between multiple zones In terms of cycling trips, changes in total number of daily trips and trip distribution were negligible In terms of PT trips, changes in total number of daily trips and trip distribution were negligible The key findings from the project assignment model included: Traffic volumes on routes parallel to the NArt all showed a decrease in traffic volume between the Do-Minimum and Option. These routes included the Western Belfast Bypass, MNR and Marshland Road Investigating the effect of the CNC on HCV movements showed that it caused 2,300 trucks/day to re-route to the NArt, which was 50% of all truck movements in the Option network Travel times improved with the CNC. All the routes investigated showed a decrease in travel time of between 3 and 8 minutes in both the AM and PM peaks. The CNC route was also shown to be the quickest route between north of Christchurch and CBD Analysis of travel time matrices showed that the operation of the CNC decreased travel time between areas to the north of Christchurch and the City Centre Analysis of downstream effects showed that the operation of the CNC increased traffic to the south of the scheme by 18,800 vpd. This resulted in increased delays, particularly on Cranford Street in the AM peak, which may lead to re-routing to local roads south of the CNC. Increases in traffic volumes on these local roads were each between 1,300-2,500 vpd. There are mostly positive effects provided by the operation of the CNC in terms of reduction in travel times and congestion. However, it is recommended that more detailed studies be undertaken to investigate the increase in traffic volumes to the north and south of the CNC. These changes in volumes could cause potential problems for existing roads and intersections. The effects of this should be examined in more detail through the NZTA ITA and CCC TAA reporting. Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page 1

37 Appendix A Modelling Assumptions Technical Note

38 Technical Note By: John Row Date: 4 June 2014 Subject: CTM - Specification of Northern Arterial Networks for ITA Assessments Our Ref: Introduction This Technical Note sets out the model specification for the CTM modelling runs for the Northern Arterial (NArt), Northern Arterial Extension (NAE) and Cranford Street Upgrade (CSU) projects Integrated Transport Assessments (ITA s). The Do Minimum case is being compared to a single Option case (which includes all three of these projects along with complementary projects). Only one model year is required, being 2031 (which will be approximately 10 years post-opening). The most recent set of official demographics (UDSPQv2?) will be used for the model runs. As this assessment will account for induced traffic effects, full four-stage model runs are required i.e. trip generation, distribution, mode choice and assignment, for both the Do Minimum and Option networks. 1 Network Specification Based on the CTMv6 network, changes or coding reviews are required as specified in the following sections: Section 1.1: General points and network away from the area of effect of the projects being assessed; Section 1.2: Specification of Option network elements; and Section 1.3: Specification of Do Minimum network (exclusions from Option network). 1.1 Common Network The points in Table 1 are general questions on the model or relate to locations not directly affected by the projects being assessed, and will be common to the Option and Do Minimum networks. Table 1: Common Network Changes Location Link Type Marshland Rd Elements Review link type to north of Christchurch in vicinity of projects to ensure consistency (as link type affects signposting, which affects light vehicle generalised cost). QEII Dr between Innes Rd & Marshland Rd currently combination of link types 3 & 4 should these be link type 2. CSM1 & CSM2 currently link type 2 (State Highway) should these be link type 1 (Motorway). Remains as is, not 4-laned as shown in LURP. Beca // 4 June 2014 // Page // NZ

39 Technical Note Location MSR/CSM2 Y- Interchange CSM1 off-ramp to Halswell Junction Rd Elements Northbound from MSR to CSM2 increase lanes from 1 to 2 (5253 -> > 5267). Southbound on-ramp merge between CSM2 and MSR currently 2 way stop with priority on MSR, not CSM2 either need to change geometry so MSR southbound comes in from left or delete intersection and ban turns in penalty file (node 5253). Change from 2 way stop to 2 lane roundabout Gap Acceptance model, Critical Gap 4.4, Follow Up time 1.3 (Node 5272). 1.2 Option Option network is based on CTMv6 future year Option network modified as per Table 2. Table 2: Option Network Project Northern Arterial Northern Arterial Extension Elements Northern Arterial: Link Type 1 from Northern Motorway through to mainline over QEII interchange. Northern Motorway southbound across Waimakariri River decrease from 3 to 2 lanes (remains 3 lanes northbound) (1769 -> > > > > 5159). No link from Main North Road to NArt northbound remove link > 5160, remove intersections 5213 & 5160 from intersection file. South facing on- & off-ramps at Belfast Rd (1 lane ramps with priority T intersections with Belfast Rd) (southbound > 5696, northbound > 2016) as per WBB NArt with Ramps DS/Opt4S supplied for NArt operational assessment. QEII Dr 4-laning: QEII Dr immediately east of interchange increase lanes from 1 to 2 (5364 <-> 5703 <-> 3996). QEII Dr westbound through Innes Rd roundabout increase lanes from 1 to 2 lanes, increase speed from 50 to 80 (2268 -> > > 2269). QEII Dr eastbound through Innes Rd roundabout increase speed from 50 to 80 (2269 -> > > 2268). QEII Dr/Innes Rd roundabout 2 lanes westbound, so increase capacity by decreasing Follow Up time from 2.7 to 1.3. QEII Interchange: Freeflow sliplane from NArt north to QEII Dr east lanes decreased from 2 to 1 (5702 -> 5703). Southbound sliplane from NArt to QEII Interchange lanes decreased from 2 to 1 (5702 -> 5364). Northern Arterial Extension: Main southbound connection between NAE and Cranford St has priority from NAE to Cranford St south change First Arm from 5283 to 1217 (node 4595). NAE/Cranford St Intersection: Beca // 4 June 2014 // Page // NZ

40 Technical Note Project Cranford Street Upgrade Main North Road Bus Priority Corridor Bus Service Changes Elements NAE southbound link to roundabout decrease lanes from 2 to 1 (5226 -> 5263). Cranford St southbound between roundabout & main NAE southbound sliplane (5263 -> 5495). Northbound bypass of roundabout along Cranford St add 1 way, 1 lane link bypassing roundabout between > 5497 (will need new node). No Second Link Remove Hills Rd Extension links through to QEII Dr (1212 <-> 5493 <-> 5492 <-> 5132). Remove QEII Dr/Hills Rd second link intersection (node 5132). Cranford St: Cranford St/McFaddens Rd restricted to left-in/left-out (1216). Cranford St between Innes Rd & McFaddens Rd restricted to leftin/left-out only ban right turns from zones 311 (turn ) and 440 ( ) if possible. Cranford St/Innes Rd Intersection (2122): Lane geometry on Innes Rd (NE) from 2308 changed to LT T R. Exit lanes set to 2 on all departures. Lane geometry on Cranford St (S) from 1471 changed to LT T R. Lane geometry on Innes Rd (SW) from 1190 changed to L T T R. High quality PT corridor along Main North Road (as per CNATI): General traffic capacity removed between West Belfast Bypass/ Dickeys Rd intersection in north and QEII Dr/ Northcote Rd intersection in south decrease lanes from 2 to 1 along full corridor between 1152 (north) and 2108 (south). Add buslane on overbridge between Styx Mill Rd & Farquhars Rd (1208 <-> 1924 <-> 1628). Express Bus Services on Northern Arterial: Between Kaiapoi and central Christchurch: Travelling non-stop from Tram Rd via Northern Motorway (accessed at Tram Rd), NArt, NAE, Cranford St through to Bealey Ave. Then stopping route to Bus Exchange (via whatever route is appropriate from there (Manchester St?)). Peak period, peak direction only. 30 minute headway. Between Kaiapoi and Northlands superstop, then on to central city: Travelling non-stop from Tram Rd via Northern Motorway (accessed at Tram Rd), NArt, QEII and MNR (and then on to central city via MNR/Papanui Rd?). Peak period, peak direction only. 30 minute headway. Between Rangiora and central Christchurch: Travelling non-stop along Lineside Rd to Northern Motorway (accessed at Lineside Rd), NArt, NAE and Cranford St through to Bealey Ave. Then stopping route to Bus Exchange (same route as Beca // 4 June 2014 // Page // NZ

41 Technical Note Project Elements service from Kaiapoi). Peak period, peak direction only. 30 minute headway. 1.3 Do Minimum The Do Minimum network excludes all elements of the Options, as noted in Table 3. Table 3: Do Minimum Network Project Northern Arterial Northern Arterial Extension Cranford Street Upgrade Main North Road Bus Priority Corridor Bus Service Changes Elements Remove entirely Remove entirely Remove entirely Peak period peak direction partial bus lanes only. Buslanes on MNR, north of Cranford St, only between following nodes: AM: > > > > > > > > > > > 1465 IP: > >1925 -> > 1927 None PM: > > > > > > > > > > 1286 Remove Option express services. 2 Outputs Required The following outputs are required from the model runs: Model catalog to be supplied to Beca (for extraction of PT and active mode trip information); and Vehicle matrices to be supplied to QTP for conversion to CAST matrices. John Row Senior Transport Planner Beca // 4 June 2014 // Page // NZ

42 Appendix B Network Summary

43 Table C-1: Do-Minimum and Option network summary Components Do-Minimum Option Blenheim Road Deviation Johns Rd/Main North Rd Signal Improvements Marshland Rd 4 Laning - Briggs Rd to QEII Dr Prestons Rd Speed Reduction to 50kph (Waitikiri Corner) Dunbars Rd/Halswell Rd Signals Ferry Road Rd/Humphreys Dr Signals Russley Rd/Yaldhurst Rd Signals Blakes Rd Speed Changes Bus Priority - Hills Rd (North Avon Rd to Shirley Rd) Bus Priority Corridor - Main North and Papanui Rd Halswell Junction Rd/Main South Rd Signals Harman St/Lincoln Rd Signals Logistics Drive Extension (to Sawyers Arms Rd) Pound Rd/Yaldhurst Rd Roundabout QEII Dr/Travis Rd/Burwood Rd Signals Rolleston - Byron St Extension Roydvale/Memorial Signals SH1/Rolleston Dr/Hoskyns Rd Signals

44 Springs/Blakes Rbt Waimairi Rd/Peer St Signals Fernside Rd/Flaxton Rd Improvements (WDC) Harewood Cycle Project - Nunweek Blvd to Highstead Rd Marshland Rd/QE II Dr Signals Wigram Rd Realignment (Awatea Dunbars Overbridge Bridge) Stop Aidanfield Overpass (CSM1) Christchurch Southern Motorway (CSM1 only) Ferrymead Bridge Widening & Main Road 3 Laning Halswell Junction Rd/Shands Rd Signals Ron Guthrey Rd/Peter Leeming Rd Signals Western Corridor - Memorial to Yaldhurst Yaldhurst Rd Speed Reduction to 70kph (Russley Rd to Pound Rd) Yaldhurst Village Development Network (Living G) Collector Road Through CSW6 (rem arm is L2) Lineside Rd Interchange Signalisation Accessible City Christchurch Central Network Changes Airport Southern Development Network

45 Amyes/Springs Intersection Awatea Rd Speed Changes Belfast /Main North Belfast Village Development Network (CN1 Applefields) Burwood Rd/Mairehau Rd Signals Capital A Trumpet Fulton Hogan Development Network (CSW4) Gardiners Rd/Sawyers Arms Rd Signals Glandovey/Idris 705 Greers/Northcote/Sawyers Arms Signals Islington Park Drive Development Marshland Rd Speed Reduction to 70kph (Prestons Rd to Belfast Rd) Marshland Rd/Hawkins Rd/Lower Styx Rd Signals Marshland Rd/Prestons Rd Signals Memorial Russley Interchange Northcote Road 4 Laning - Sawyers Arms Rd to Main North Rd Ohoka Rd/Island Rd (W Ohoka offramp) Pound Road (Resa) Deviation

46 Pound Road Deviation to SH1 (Close Barters Rd) Prestons Development Network Rolleston Development Network Sawyers Arm Corridor Improvement Travis/Bassett St Improvements Wairakei/Wooldridge Western Belfast Bypass Western Corridor - Groynes to Sawyers Western Corridor - Sawyers to Memorial Western Corridor - Yaldhurst to Waterloo Wigram Development Network (CSW1) Wigram Magdala link (Overbridge) Wigram Rd Speed Changes Aidanfield / Halswell LiLo Belfast Industrial Development Network (CB1) Broughs Rd Extension CB2 Network Changes including Edmonton / Shands CB7 Spine Rd Option Christchurch Southern Motorway (CSM1 and CSM2)

47 Dunbars Rd Extension Grays / Ryans Priority Converted to Rbt Grimseys Rd/Prestons Rd Signals Halswell / CAP X 4-Way Signals Halswell Road 4 Laning - Curletts Rd to Dunbars Rd Halswell Road Speed Changes Highfield Park Development Network (CN5 & CN6) HJR Extension Levi/Lowes and Jones Road intersection upgrade Main South Rd Four-Laning (MSRFL) Marshes Rd/Shands Rd Signals Northwood Blvd/Johns/Groynes Priority Intersection Orchard / Wairakei Priority Converted to Rbt PC68 Local Road Network Changes Pound / Ryans Priority Converted to Rbt Sparks / Hendersons Signalised T Sparks Road Speed Changes Tennyson St safety improvement Awatea Rd/Springs Rd Signals

48 Belfast Rd/Marshland Rd Signals Cashmere Rd/Centaurus Ave/Colombo St/Dyers Pass Signals CB7 Spine Rd Option 6 (incremental to Opt 5) Collector Road Through CSW7 Cranford St 4 Laning - NAE to Innes Deans Ave/Riccarton Rd Signals Ferry Rd 4 Laning - Aldwins Rd to Fitzgerald Ave Frankleigh Ave/Lyttelton St Signals Highstead/ Sawyers Arms Hoon Hay Rd/Sparks Rd Signals Lincoln Road 4 Laning - Curletts Rd to Wrights Rd Main North Rd Narrowing Northern Arterial Northern Arterial with Extension (QEII Dr to Cranford St) Orchard Road Extension QE II 4 Laning - Main North Rd to Innes Rd Rolleston SH1 Interchange MSRFL (Weedons Ross to CSM2) Rolleston signal removal/overbridge

49 Seymour St/Shands Rd Signals Sparks / CAP Extension Signalised T Symes Rd Closure Symes Rd Extension to Harvard Ave CN3 Improvements Hawkins / Prestons Signals Lincoln Southern Bypass Main North/Marshland/Spencerville Milns / Sparks / Sutherlands Signalised Ts Shands Rd 4-laning CSM2 - HJR

50 Appendix C CTM Matrices

51 Figure C-1: Christchurch Region Sectors Map