Risks and Opportunities: Lessons from Ride Services

Transcription

1 Risks and Opportunities: Lessons from Ride Services Bruce Schaller Schaller Consulting Photo: New York Times C2SMART Symposium October 23, 2018

2

3 Uber Our goal is simple: take 1 million cars off the road in New York City eliminate our city s congestion problem for good Lyft Shared rides are helping to reduce the carbon footprint left by driving alone ber (July 2015): yft (Jan. 2016):

4 998 1 l ( a c i g lo o n h c e t Neil Postman on ) change Technological change is not it is which means, it additive ecological, changes everything and is, therefore, too important to be left entirely in the hands of Bill Gates.

5 What s Happening What it Means Implications for AV

6 What s Happening What it Means Implications for AV

7 Human-driven Autonomous Human-driven

8 in h t w o r g Rapid Taxi/TNC ridership Ridership by end of 2018: Taxi/TNC billion +34% Local bus 4.7 billion Urban rail 4.3 billion +23% Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July Revised 9/2018. (Annual rate)

9 Concentrate d in city core Source: Unpublished trip data

10 Concentrate d in city core Lyft pick-ups in San Francisco Bay Area October 2017 Source: Transpo Group, San Francisco Bay Area Congestion Report, August 2018.

11 and at peak hour Chicago San Francisco Lyft pick-ups, by time of day and day of week, October Source: Transpo Group, Chicago Congestion Report, and San Francisco Bay Area Congestion Report, August 2018.

12 th w o r g e g Milea 976 million additional miles driven (New York City, 2013 to 2017) 85% more VMT from TNC versus previous mode (Denver area) 20-26% of vehicles making intra-s.f. trips in Downtown/Mission district Sources: Schaller Consulting, Making Congestion Pricing Work. Henao, Impacts of Ridesourcing. SFCTA, TNCs Today.

13 red a h S : T M V g Solvin Rides? "Lyft is focused on... getting more people to share a ride." - Lyft spokesperson shared ride and Express Pool rides [are] something we re very much behind. - Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi

14

15 n e v E s e s ea r c n I e g a Mile ps i r T d e r a With Sh Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.

16 t o n C N T f i d use e v a h d l u o W e d i r r o f e l b availa Public transit 15-33% Walking/Biking 10-24% Not make the trip 60% 8-22% Personal auto 7-40% Taxicab 1-40% Sources: Clewlow and Mishra, Adoption, Utilization and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the U.S. Henao, Impacts of Ridesourcing. Rayle, et. al., Just a Better Taxi? MAPC, Fare Choices These data reflect relatively dense urban conditions. 40%

17 Jobs up -Subway ridership down New York

18 Boston

19 Chicago

20 San Francisco

21

22

23 Customer is saying Save time Reduce stress

24 l o o P r e b U Express Shared Straight line (minimize turns) Walk to pick-up location

25 What s Happening What it Means Implications for AV

26 Taxi Door-to-door, exclusive ride on-demand Transit Straight line routes, shared ride, walk & wait

27 Taxi Door-to-door, exclusive ride on-demand Transit Straight line routes, shared ride, walk & wait

28 Scooter Bike Walk TNC Taxi Door-to-door, exclusive ride on-demand Chariot Via Uber Pool Express Lyft Shared Ride Public Transit Straight line routes, shared ride, walk & wait

29 What s Happening What it Means Implications for AV

30 X Xx X X X X X X x

31

32 1930

33

34 Getting there: Make high-capacity transit fast, frequent and reliable and universal wherever needed Supplement with 4-20 passenger vehicles

35 Autonomous shuttle pilot

36 Evolve from today Shuttles Feeders to transit Integrated service and fares Increase mainline frequency and then capacity Give priority Dedicated street space Signal timing Ban conflicts (turns) Take the friction out of the transfer

37 Bronx

38 Quito, Ecuador

39 Guangzhou, China

40 Toronto

41 Make transit Best way to get around town