GERI Animatic, Marne-la-Vallée, December 5, 2012 Francis Papon

Transcription

1 THE FRENCH INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR TRANSPORT, DEVELOPMENT AND NETWORKS GERI Animatic, Marne-la-Vallée, December 5, 2012 Francis Papon Francis Papon, December 5,

2 Data sources Sales: Chambre syndicale then CNPC since 1890 Fleet: Impôt sur les vélocipèdes 1893 to 1959, National Travel Surveys: 1966 to 2008 Traffic: national highways 1903 to 1960, Paris since 1997 Accidents: ONISR since 1982 Trips and modal share: national and local travel surveys in urban areas since 1976 Francis Papon, December 5,

3 French bicycle market Sales French supply Imports Exports (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) Source: FIEV Francis Papon, December 5,

4 Bicycle traffic peaked on French highways Cumulated traffic intensity on nagonal highways (per day) Source: Barles, 2004 Francis Papon, December 5,

5 A decreasing involvement of bicyclists in accidents in France In 1970: 795 killed and injured In 2010: 147 killed and 3969 injured Basis 100 in 1995 Accidents Bicycles FataliGes Injured Serious injury Source: ONISR Francis Papon, December 5,

6 Travel surveys in France Over 100 surveys in French cities from 1966 to present (Certu, Dreia) but bicycles only since National Travel Surveys: , , , , (Insee, Soes, Inrets) home to work trips 1959 Old surveys only known from publications Francis Papon, December 5,

7 Local travel surveys and Béthune Maubeuge Brest Besançon Savoie Côte Basque Pau Montpellier Vienne Fort-de-France Francis Papon, December 5,

8 A general decline of bicycle trips 0,30 bicycle trips per person per day 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 Rennes Rouen Elbeuf Amiens Aix- en- Provence Belfort Dunkerque Lorient Nancy Orléans Reims Valence Clermont- Ferrand Etang- de- Berre Grenoble Rennes Rouen Toulon Valenciennes Francis Papon, December 5,

9 0,35 A recent rise in some of the largest cities 0,30 Strasbourg bicycle trips per person per day 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 Toulouse Nantes Saint- EGenne Strasbourg Bordeaux Toulouse Lille Marseille Lyon Paris PeGte couronne Grande couronne Île- de- France 0,05 Lyon Marseille 0, Francis Papon, December 5,

10 A rising national bicycle fleet Source: CNPC and nagonal travel surveys Francis Papon, December 5,

11 Bicycle narrow share of trips 1200 million trips per week Public Transport 600 3,9% Car PTW ,2% 2,7% 2,8% Bicycle Walk Source: nagonal travel surveys Francis Papon, December 5,

12 Bicycle narrow share in mileage million passengers- kilometres per week ,8% 0 1,5% 0,9% Source: nagonal travel surveys Other Public Transport Car PTW Bicycle Walk Francis Papon, December 5,

13 Evolution of bicycle mobility in France Bicycle fleet 000 Bicycle share (%) in Home to work trips Bicycle trips per person per day Bicycle mileage (km) per person per year ,7 2, Source: nagonal travel surveys Francis Papon, December 5,

14 French transport biographic survey Retrospective surveys use people s memory Other studies in France outside transport Transport biographies in UK, Switzerland, Germany In France biographic survey in NTS grids filled One line per year One column for each variable: dwelling place, household size, number of children, number of motorcycles, number of cars, main activity, activity place, main transport means Two aims: historical and longitudinal Francis Papon, December 5,

15 Main home to work means share in Britain Source: Pooley & Turnbull, 2000 Francis Papon, December 5,

16 The French National Travel Survey st visit sample of dwellings (30,000) 2nd visit Between visits individuals living in the households respondent households (20,000) vehicles [cars&vans, quads, motorcycles, bicycles] KISH (18,500) vehicle diary (1 week) commuting trips to work, school or kindergarden daily trips 1 weekday and 1 or 2 weekend day long distance trips biography GPS survey 1,150 grids filled at the end of 2nd visit Francis Papon, December 5,

17 Comparability with historical cross section surveys (1) Biases in biographic survey Problem Mobility definition: Only one main mode to a regular place (work or education), or other trips, per year Solution Comparison of main transport mode for three groups -those commuting to work -those commuting to education -others Francis Papon, December 5,

18 Comparability (2): Biases in biographic survey Problems Geography: Only 17 regions were surveyed Sampling: Over-sampling of multi-car households Structure: The structure of the population from the biography sample differs from the actual structure that existed then Solution Weighting correction for recovery of the sample Francis Papon, December 5,

19 Comparability (3): Biases in biographic survey Problem Survival: Only survivors in 2008 from 1907 to 2002 generations were recorded Solution Survival rate weighting Extrapolating backwards previous generations behavior Francis Papon, December 5,

20 Comparison biographies vs cross section surveys Biographies yield reliable modal share for regular trips Source: NTS , regular trips, NTS , biographies Francis Papon, December 5,

21 Biographies: bicycle main means modal share Decade vs age (bicycle share in %) Source: NTS , biographies Francis Papon, December 5,

22 Biographies: bicycle main means modal share Decade vs generation (bicycle share in %) Source: NTS , biographies Francis Papon, December 5,

23 Biographies: bicycle main means modal share Generation vs age (bicycle share in %) Source: NTS , biographies Francis Papon, December 5,

24 Estimation of an age-period model Different generalized logistic model tested To estimate main means share Many variables difficult to know in the past Low effect of generation, high effect of period Age-period model easiest model to estimate past modal share, taking into account past age groups share Walk is reference mode Confidence intervals computed for other modes Bicycle share highest in 1930 s and 1940 s Francis Papon, December 5,

25 Main means share Source: biographies in nagonal travel survey Francis Papon, December 5,

26 All bicycle use indicators Source: diverse base 100 in 1995 Francis Papon, December 5,

27 Thank you Francis Papon, December 5,