RACE OF THE WEEK Belmont Park The Metropolitan Mile 1 Mile 3yo & up Monday, May 30, 2005

Transcription

1 RACE OF THE WEEK Belmont Park The Metropolitan Mile 1 Mile 3yo & up Monday, May 30, 2005 Over the years the Belmont surface has changed considerably the cushion, which was 2-1/2 deep back when Secretariat and the 70 s superstars were running, is now almost 4. To give you an idea of what this means, there was one day in 2003 when the cushion was only 3 the day Najran ran a mile in 1:32:24. Additionally, the track now has a higher percentage of sand, which dries out faster, but is slower when dry ( fast ) than when it had more clay. The result of the changes is a track which, among other things, is much slower, and obscures the fact that the equine athletes that compete over it are much, much faster than their ancestors of a few generations ago. In part this is because a generation for thoroughbreds takes about one-third as long as it does for humans--secretariat is to today s top racehorses as Jesse Owens is to today s track stars. Other reasons for improvement include advances in nutrition and sports medicine, including unfortunately some which have prompted the security measures recently implemented at the NYRA tracks. All of which brings us to this year s Met Mile and a short but ridiculously fast field. Where a decade ago only one or two horses a year would run a negative figure on the Thoro-Graph scale, it has now become a commonplace occurrence, and every single member of this field has already gone negative this year. Forest Danger (118) is a very fast horse, and fast horses are hard to keep sound you will notice that several Met Mile horses have extended gaps in their form. This colt ran a negative number as an April 3yo and soon thereafter went to the sidelines. Since his return he has been a monster with two huge figures (negative 4-1/2s), and Pletcher has smartly spaced his races to keep him in one piece. He comes into the Met fresh and very fast, and getting a five pound pull in the weights from Ghostzapper worth one point on the Thoro-Graph scale. All of which makes him very tough, and probably the most likely winner of the race.

2 Ghostzapper (123) is, on Thoro-Graph figures, the best horse since we started assigning ratings in 1982, and so almost certainly of all time which doesn t mean there wouldn t have been a better one if Smarty Jones had raced at four, or won t be a better one next year. On his best (which did not come in the Breeders Cup), Ghostzapper could spot Forest danger five pounds and still beat him a length or two. But there is no reason to believe that he is wound up for his best off the layoff. ove of Money -- (116) Dutrow has recently taken to entering horses back on less than one week s rest, so he s starting to look more like Oscar Barrera every day. He s good at it, too, winning 30% of his starts on 10 days or less (see profile). This colt got down to a big figure to win the Pennsylvania Derby, but took an awful long time to get back to it, which is not a good sign. But even if he can repeat that effort on short rest, which is questionable, it would leave him well short of the best efforts of the top two. Pomeroy (115) was something of an early developer, and that kind is less likely to continue to improve much as an older horse. The grouping last summer was good, and the grass conditioner had him all set for the race of his life last time so it leads us to believe that s about his limit at this point. Silver Wagon -- (114) His negative figure came three back at Gulfstream, and was followed by a bounce, and then a decent effort over one of several dead rails that popped up at Keeneland and Churchill Downs this spring. With four months since his top he could be set for a big effort now, so it s too bad they didn t enter him someplace where the competition was weaker. Sir Shackleton (116) had a very solid 3yo campaign and was one of several Zito horses that fired top efforts off layoffs this winter, a major reversal of his training pattern. ike Sun King this one then tailed off, and if he doesn t fire his best now it might be time for a break. But even if he does, he can t beat the top two unless they don t fire. Overview Not much of a betting race, but if Forest Danger and Ghostzapper both bring their A game, this could be one for the ages. Silver Wagon could be used underneath at a big price in the exotics.

3 The two most important questions in assessing a race are: How fast has each horse run in the past? How fast is it going to run today? Thoro-Graph answers the first question by creating accurate performance figures. By placing the life history in figures on a graph, we allow you the opportunity to attack the second question with confidence. Each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race. All this information is refined with a carefully crafted track variant down to one number for each horse in every race. The lower the number, the better the race. With few exceptions there will be a figure for every race a horse has run for the last four years. Thoro-Graph figures are represented numerically and in a clear graphical format that is easy to read and understand. The format makes it possible to compare horses which haverun under different conditions, at different distances over different tracks, and on different days. Any handicapper or horseman can examine each horse s history, form cycle, and relative ability in looking at today s race. With a little practice, you ll be able to identify form cycles. Some run consistent patterns, varying from a simple good race/bad race pattern, bad race after an exceptionally good effort (the bounce ), or more complex circling patterns where a horse gradually loses its form then slowly comes around toward its original level. Using our data it is possible to anticipate these moves and select horses which are not obvious to the general public. We also provide very sophisticated data that enables the handicapper to evaluate trainers and pedigrees when deciding how a horse will perform under different circumstances. Of course there are infinite variations in how horses run and no two are alike. There are no hard and fast rules on how to interpret patterns and form cycles. Every handicapper will come up with his or her patterns they like or dislike. Some people will only bet long shots. Others just want to have fun and cash a race no matter what the return. Whatever your style, Thoro-Graph provides all you need to make you a better, more informed player. It may take a little while to get the hang of reading our format, but if you stick with it, you ll realize Thoro-Graph is everything you need to win.

4 Thoro-Graph The Basics The lower the number the faster the race. On our scale 1 point = ~1 length at 5 furlongs increasingly to 2 lengths at 1 1/4 miles. Each sheet has 4 calendar years going back from right to left. The last race a horse ran would be the uppermost number in the rightmost column corresponding to the horse s age. 5 pounds in weight = 1 point at all distances. The figures are adjusted for weight carried in previous races. If 2 horses run a TG figure of 10 today, a horse in at 115 will beat a horse in at 120 by 1 point, or 1 length at 5f. Each path out from the rail (1 path) = 1 length of ground loss. Considering all else equal, in a 1 turn race a horse in the 3 path runs 2 lengths better than a horse on the rail. Our figures are not adjusted for horses that are off poorly or stumbled from the gate. Appropriate notations are made next to the figure. Dirt figures 25 1 = 25 1/ = 25 1/ = 25 3/4 Turf races are denoted by - e.g. -25 is 25 on the turf. Typeface key Races 5 1/2 furlongs and less are in italic light face e.g Races 6 furlongs to less than 1 mile are in light face e.g Races 1 mile to 1 1/8 miles are in bold face e.g Races more than 1 1/8 miles are in italic bold face e.g Race summary key Up to 8 running lines are provided for each horse. From left to right, the running line denotes race date, track, race#, track condition, distance, race condition, finish position, beaten lengths, weight, odds, Thoro-Graph figure, path, and equipment/medication information. All trainer changes, not just claims, are listed. Summary code key BAR Barshoe or aluminum pad worn bl Blinkers f Front bandages FC Front caulks Track condition key gd Good (dirt or turf) my Muddy sy Sloppy Graph code key st Stumbled start or during race gate Fractious gate or ran off op- Off poorly less than 2 lengths op Off poorly ~2 lengths op+ Off poorly 4 or more rank Erratic, buck jumped, jumped shadow bled Bled during race bi bo Bore in bore out T Big trouble during race BC FBC B N wf sf yl Back caulks Front and back caulks asix Bute Nasal Strip Wet fast Soft Yielding tu Taken up, steadied, or checked X Ran on a dead rail $ Heavily bet for no obvious reason! Buried race faster than appears to public h? Horse may not have been extended h_pace Unusually fast pace s_pace Unusually slow pace time? Time of race is in question Change of equipment, trainer, medication, etc. See race summaries for exact change. quit Stopped - final figure not representative

5 Auction Prices The sale price for all thoroughbreds sold at public auction through Summer 2004 as a (W)eanling, (Y)earling, or (2)-year-old are shown at the bottom of a horse s 2-year-old column. Trainer and sire profiles Trainer profiles with unusually good ROI (Return on Investment based on a $2 wager) will be shown on the sheets in bold. A poor ROI will be in italic. The TGI (Thoro-Graph index) for sires is the average figure achieved by all their offspring. Statistics are based solely on North American starts. Sire Averages Category Win% ITM% TGI Overall y-o y-o y-o y-o Dirt Off tracks Turf st time turf Sprints Routes st time out Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings Dam-Side Data Sheets for all horses less than 5-years old will include the race records (North American from 1992 on) for each dam and her other foals and their best Thoro-Graph figure broken down by year, sprint, route, surface and track condition. An asterisk, *, besides the dam or foal's name indicates that the horse may have raced before 1992 and those races are not included. A dash, --, in the data category means the horse did not race, so no figure. A question mark,?, means we don't have figures for those races. Thoro-Graph figures are calculated from data compiled from several sources including Equibase Company C. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company C (which includes data from The Jockey Club) and/or Thoro-Graph Inc. generally is accurate but occasional errors and omissions may occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoro-Graph Inc., Equibase Company C, and The Jockey Club disclaim responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors but would appreciate their being called to their attention. Trainer Averages (Through 2004) Category Win% ITM% ROI Overall or less over 4-1 to over Sprints Routes Dirt (inc off tracks) Turf Off tracks (Dirt) Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings MSW MC CM AW STK y-o y-o y-o y-o ast race 7 days and under ast race 8-29 days ast race days ast race 90+ days nd race off layoff rd race off layoff st time out 2-y-o (MSW) st time out 2-y-o (MC) st time out 3-y-o+ (MSW) st time out 3-y-o+ (MC) st time out mdn 4-1 or less st time out over 4-1 to st time out over nd time out mdn 2-y-o nd time out mdn 3-y-o nd time out mdn 4-1 or less nd time out mdn > 4-1 to nd time out mdn over st race after trainer change Dirt to Turf Turf to Dirt In claimers, down in class In claimers, up in class Sprint to Route Route to Sprint st time route st time turf st time asix nd time asix (in a row) st time blinkers Blinkers on Blinkers off Adding bandages Removing bandages

6 ONE SMA STEP FOR MAN NEW FIGURE-BASED TRAINER PROFIES OK, we are now publishing the new figure based trainer profiles, and have added a lot of new categories. A couple of others (seasonal categories) are coming soon, and more will be added as we go on, based in part on your input. This turned out to be pretty complicated stuff, and there will almost certainly be problems with it-- errors, or just ways that the studies can be improved to better reflect racetrack reality. This is how they work: (Statistics are based on TG figures from 1/1/98 through 12/31/03.) 1-- The studies are based on the "effective top" of each horse at the time of the race being measured. Effective top is defined here as the horse's best figure from his last six starts, or last 12 months if he ran less than 6 times during that period. This means, for example, that when we look at an instance of a trainer running a horse second off a layoff, that effort is compared to his previous 6 runs at that time. 2-- The efforts being measured are broken out into 4 categories-- a) "new top", defined as more than one point better than the previous top", b) "pair", defined as within a point better or worse than the previous top, c) "off race", defined as more than a point worse but less than 4 points worse than the previous top, d) "x", defined as 4 or more points worse than the previous top. 3-- For the categories measuring how a trainer's horses do following a top, a pair of tops etc., we only used horses that have run at least 6 times for the trainer. 4-- We did not use a sequence where there was a trainer change in the last 3 starts (except for the "trainer change" studies). We are going to take a look at this and decide whether that is the right way to go or not. 5-- The bold face and italics indicate significantly higher or lower than average, respectively, not better or worse. Meaning, a trainer with a bold face "x" group in a category is getting more BAD performances than most. 6-- We are comparing efforts to tops on the same surface only-- if a horse raced on dirt we compared his effort to his best dirt number within his last 6 starts on any surface. This is groundbreaking stuff, so we have no idea what to expect, and await your comments.

7 THE FUTURE IS NOW. AGAIN. You will notice that we have added new studies to the full Thoro-Graph sheets, based on patterns of the figures themselves, starting with the races of 6/27/04. The studies are broken out by age and time of year, but after that it gets a little complicated. The studies were run using horses that have run at least six times the three starts of the pattern (0-2-X etc.), plus at least three starts before that, in order to establish an effective previous top to compare to. Each of the last four the three of the pattern, plus the one being measured had to be within 42 days of the previous start, and all for the same trainer. The three runs in the pattern and the one being measured all had to be on the same surface (either dirt of turf), and either all sprints (less than a mile) or routes (a mile or more). The numbers are compared to the effective top of the horse, which for the purposes of these studies was defined as the best figure the horse had run in the last 6 starts before the three race pattern began. If the horse runs better than that within the three race pattern, that figure becomes his effective top. Dirt patterns compared the race being studied to the horse s dirt top, turf patterns to his grass top. Now pay attention, because that was the easy stuff. This is where things get complicated. We do not make distinctions when we output the sheets. In other words, if a horse is coming off an 0-2-X, with the races six months apart, some grass and some dirt, we are printing the 0-2-X stats, even though they don t really apply. We are doing this so you have something to work with, but it means you have to make distinctions. You can t always take the results at face value for every horse you have to handicap. Was there a significant trainer change that affected the pattern, or affects your opinion about what the horse will run today? An off race on a surface the horse doesn t like last time out? Is the horse heavily raced, making improvement less likely than on average for the pattern? The patterns shown are the ones for the surface today s race is carded for regardless, of what surface the horse has been running on, and the effective top used will be the horse s best number, regardless of surface or distance this is tricky, and we will revisit the question after we get feedback. The same categories apply as for the figure-based trainer studies top means more than one point better than his previous effective top, pair means within a point either way of that effort, off means more than one point, but less than four points worse than the effective top, and X means worse than that. et us know what you think.

8 180 Varick Street? Suite 426? New York, NY 10014? Thoro-Graph Data can be purchased: ONINE Opening an account with a major credit card takes just a few minutes. Usually, products are available 36 hours prior to post except the Analysis available the night before the races. OVERNIGHT DEIVERY You must have your own Fedex account that s easily available from Fedex by calling or their website Usually available for delivery the day before the races. THORO GRAPH - 900# INE ANAYSIS $25 Charged to your telephone, available on morning day of racing. SAES SITES Usually available the day before the races. NEW YORK Main Office - Manhattan 180 Varick Street, Suite 426, NY, NY, (btw King & Charlton) Newsstand: Manhattan--246 E. 53rd Street (between 2nd & 3rd Aves.) Newsstand: Brooklyn--Sakman s Candy Store, th Avenue (68th Str), Bay Ridge NYC OTB: Manhattan--Yankee Clipper, 170 John Street, off Water Street NYC OTB: Manhattan--Winner s Circle, 515 7th Avenue (between 37th & 38th Streets) NYC OTB: Manhattan--Inside Track, 919 2nd Avenue (between 52nd & 53rd Streets) Albany Teleplex: Albany--711 Central Avenue Hauppauge Racing Forum: Hauppauge, ong Island--690 Motor Parkway Race Palace: Plainview, ong Island Round Swamp Rd Aqueduct / Belmont: Clubhouse Coat Room (Aqu--2nd Fl) Info booth (Bel 2nd Fl) & Grandstand binocular stand Saratoga: Grandstand binocular booth. NEW JERSEY Meadowlands: Tip sheet stand - base of elevator on ground floor of Grandstand Freehold Raceway: Main program stand (adjacent to Billy s Room or Publicity Office) Monmouth: Tip sheet stand Grandstand entrance (by main gate), Clubhouse racing paper stand and Admissions office (adjacent to main gate) (in season) CONNECTICUT Bradley Teletheater: Newsstand, 11 Schoenphester Road., Windsor ocks SportsHaven: Program Stand, 600 ongwharf Drive, New Haven MARYAND FORIDA aurel: Main tip sheet stand Gulfstream: Tip sheet stand in the Clubhouse lobby Pimlico: Main tip sheet stand (in season)* Calder: Tip sheet stand in the Clubhouse lobby IINOIS Westgate Bookstore and Newsstand: Arlington Heights, in Westgate Shopping Center, 1535 West Campbell, corner of Campbell and Wilkes Arlington Park: Grandstand and Clubhouse Tip Sheet Stands (in season) / Trackside Program Stand (simulcast season) Or call Roger Vice at SOUTHERN CAIFORNIA Near Santa Anita: Valentine s iquors: Arcadia, 924 South Baldwin Avenue (year round) Hollywood Park: Program/Tip Sheet Stand just inside Grandstand Main Gate (in season) Near Del Mar: Winners Circle Resort, Solano Beach, 550 Via De a Valle ( in season) KENTUCKY Keeneland: Airport Food Mart, 5584 Versailles Road, exington Ky (in season only). Keeneland: The News Stand, 565 East New Circle Rd (in season only). OUISIANA Fair Grounds: Grandstand Program Stand, 1st floor (in season) AS VEGAS-- online account holders can use the computer in the VIP Room at Bally s Hotel as Vegas Blvd. So to download and print Thoro-Graph products. For more information contact John Avello at Note --Simulcast sets cost $35. Thoro-Graph sheets cost $25. At Meadowlands venue where multiple track simulcast books are NOT sold, the pricing is: 1st set--$25, 2 sets--$40, same day different tracks, plus $10 for each additional track, same day.

9 BE, 05/30/05, Race 9 PP 1, SIR SHACKETON SIR SHACKETON 116 Zito, Nicholas P. 07May05 CD 5 ft 7 1:20:56 STK200k 4 4¼ w settled 4w,came 5w into lane, mild gain 16Apr05 KEE8 ft 7 1:22:06 STK400k 4 5½ * 1 1 3w close up from outset, had no late response 12Mar05 GP 11 ft 7 1:21:64 STK200k 1 1½ w chased pace, 3 wide, rallied, up late, drew clear, driving 03Feb05 GP 9 ft 1M 1:35:89 AOC150k 1 4½ w steadied backstretch, rallied 4 wide, drew away, driving 02Oct04 HOO9 ft 1-1/16 1:44:04 STK500k w4w B inside, angled 4wd far turn, lugged in 3/16 28Aug04 SAR11 ft 1-1/4 2:02:45 STK1000k 5 11¼ w1w FBC rated along inside, inside trip, no response when roused 07Aug04 MNR8 ft 1-1/8 1:49:16 STK600k * 0 2 4w1w B taken in hand, saved ground, fired from the inside, surged clear 11Jul04 BE8 ft 1-1/16 1:40:02 STK150k 3 4¼ *e 1 3 2w FBC speed between rivals, chased pace, stayed on well stretch THORO-PATTERN StsTop%Pair%Off% X% Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top -2 2, Pair-Off-Off (-2, 1 1, -0 2 ) Trainer Profile - Zito, Nicholas P. RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED Starts Win% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top% Pair% Off% X% Overall or less over 4-1 to over ast 90 days ast race under 11 days ast race days ast race days ast race 90+ days nd race off lay-off rd race off lay-off Colts/Geldings STK y-o y-o Apr-Jun Dirt Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Sprint to Route Adding bandages After race 1-4pts off top At BE With Bejarano, Rafael Jockey Profile (last 12mo) - BEJARANO, RAFAE, Category Starts Wins Win% Path ROI Overall Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) At BE Sire Profile - MISWAKI Category TGI Horses Starts Wins Win% ITM ITM% SW Overall y-o y-o y-o y-o and up Dirt Off tracks Turf st time turf ess than 1M M and over st time out Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings May05BE9(5:35pm) 1M DIRT STK750k 3+ PP1 SIR SHACKETON (KY) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JU AUG SEP OCT NO V DEC 2-YEAR-OD HOO 1 3 SAR 4 MNR 0 2 BE 1 3 PIM 4 2 CD 3 2 KEE 1 3 GP 4 GP 7 3-YEAR-OD bi bo BE 01 (Mar26) ch c Miswaki - Naskra Colors (Star de Naskra) 4-YEAR-OD CD negative # KEE 1 1 GP 2-- negative # GP tu negative # BREEDING NASKRA COORS (92) Strts: 28 (5w, 20itm, 0sw) UNBRIDED COORS 00 f by Unbridled (12) Strts: 4 (0w, 1itm, 0sw)

10 PP 2, GHOSTZAPPER GHOSTZAPPER 123 Frankel, Robert J. 30Oct04 S 9 ft 1-1/4 1:59:02 STK4000k * w2w bl rushed up, set pressured pace inside, shook loose, drew clear 11Sep04 BE10 ft 1-1/8 1:46:38 STK500k 1 nk * w bl speed between rivals, carried out stretch, bumped, prevailed 21Aug04 MTH9 sy 1-1/8 1:47:66 STK200k 1 10¾ * w2w bl tracked early leader, challenged, clear, ridden out 04Jul04 BE9 ft 7 1:20:42 STK150k 1 4¼ * w bl in hand outside, 4 wide move, drew away when asked, ridden out 27Sep03 BE7 ft 6-1/2 1:14:72 STK500k 1 6½ w bl outrun early, 4 wide throughout, quick move, drew away, driving 23Aug03 SAR10 ft 7 1:22:14 STK200k 3 ½ w bl hustled along outside, 5 wide trip, finished fast outside 26Jul03 SAR7 ft 7 1:21:74 AW49kNW2X 1 ½ * 2 2 3w bl speed outside, 3 wide trip, dug in gamely when roused, driving 20Jun03 BE7 my 6 1:09:39 AW45kNW1X 1 3¼ * 2 4w bl FBC dropped back early, 4 wide trip, rolled home outside, hand ride THORO-PATTERN StsTop%Pair%Off% Dirt 5 and up Apr-Jun: Prev Top -4 3, Top-Pair-Off (-6 2, -6 2, -4 2 ) X% 30 Trainer Profile - Frankel, Robert J. RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED Starts Win% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top% Pair% Off% X% Overall or less over 4-1 to over ast 90 days ast race under 11 days ast race days ast race days ast race 90+ days nd race off lay-off rd race off lay-off Colts/Geldings STK y-o and up y-o and up Apr-Jun Dirt Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Adding bandages After race 1-4pts off top At BE With Castellano, Javier Jockey Profile (last 12mo) - CASTEANO, JAVIER, Category Starts Wins Win% Path ROI Overall Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) At BE Sire Profile - AWESOME AGAIN Category TGI Horses Starts Wins Win% ITM ITM% SW Overall y-o y-o y-o y-o and up Dirt Off tracks Turf st time turf ess than 1M M and over st time out Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings May05BE9(5:35pm) 1M DIRT STK750k 3+ PP2 GHOSTZAPPER (KY) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JU AUG SEP OCT NO V DEC 2-YEAR-OD SA 9 3 HO YEAR-OD BE negative # op- SAR 1 SAR 2 2 BE 2my 00 (Apr06) b h Awesome Again - Baby Zip (Relaunch) 4-YEAR-OD 5-YEAR-OD S negative # BE negative # MTH6 2 --sy negative # BE negative # BE

11 PP 3, OVE OF MONEY OVE OF MONEY 116 Dutrow, Jr., Richard E. 25May05 BE8 sy 1M 1:35:27 AOC75kNW2X * w quickly clear, made pace, drew away, ridden out 05Feb05 SA 9 ft 1-1/8 1:49:24 STK300k 3 3½ w2w B speed, btwn foes, set pace, met bids,clear again,bested rest 02Oct04 BE10 ft 1-1/4 2:02:44 STK1000k * 8 1w1w speed inside, contested pace, tired stretch 06Sep04 PHA10 ft 1-1/8 1:48:42 STK750k 1 8½ w1w set pace inside under rating, tried to bear out 1/4, straight 12Aug04 SAR7 sy 7 1:22:42 AW47kNW1X w speed in hand, argued pace, drew away, vigorous hand ride 09Jul04 BE5 ft 6 1:09:09 AW45kNW2 2 2¼ * 3 1 2w speed outside, contested pace, tired final furlong 12Jun04 BE4 ft 6 1:09:63 MSW43k w speed inside, set pace, drew clear when roused, widened, driving THORO-PATTERN StsTop%Pair%Off% X% Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top -1 2, X-X-Pair (8, 2 3, -1 2 ) Trainer Profile - Dutrow, Jr., Richard E. RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED Starts Win% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top% Pair% Off% X% Overall or less over 4-1 to over ast 90 days ast race under 11 days ast race days ast race days ast race 90+ days nd race off lay-off rd race off lay-off Colts/Geldings STK y-o y-o Apr-Jun Dirt Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Adding bandages After race within 1pt of top At BE With Prado, Edgar S Jockey Profile (last 12mo) - PRADO, EDGAR, S. Category Starts Wins Win% Path ROI Overall Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) At BE Sire Profile - NOT FOR OVE Category TGI Horses Starts Wins Win% ITM ITM% SW Overall y-o y-o y-o y-o and up Dirt Off tracks Turf st time turf ess than 1M M and over st time out Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings May05BE9(5:35pm) 1M DIRT STK750k 3+ PP3 OVE OF MONEY (MD) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JU AUG SEP OCT NO V DEC 2-YEAR-OD SAE PRICES FTI Y 70,000 Not For ove 2002: 24 ylngs sold, ave 46k BE 8 3-YEAR-OD PHA bo negative # SAR 2sy BE 3 1 BE (Apr06) dk b/ c Not For ove - Mescalina (Smarten) 4-YEAR-OD BE BE sy negative # SA 2 3 BREEDING MESCAINA (93) Strts: 15 (3w, 11itm, 0sw) POISH NANA 00 f by Polish Numbers (12) Strts: 14 (0w, 5itm, 0sw) AEN'S MS 99 f by Allen's Prospect (14 3 ) Strts: 16 (1w, 4itm, 0sw) ASTRID 98 f by Concern (13 3 ) Strts: 22 (8w, 12itm, 2sw)

12 PP 4, POMEROY POMEROY 115 Biancone, Patrick. 07May05 CD 5 ft 7 1:20:56 STK200k * w reluctant gate,edge in, forwardly, no late response 16Apr05 KEE6 T fm 5-1/2 1:02:22 STK100k 7 3½ w bl forced pace,between foes, 4w,forwardly to 1/8p,weakened 28Aug04 SAR10 ft 7 1:20:99 STK250k 1 1½ w awkward start, close up inside, inside move, game on rail, clear 07Aug04 SAR8 ft 6 1:09:40 STK150k 2 ¾ * w bl speed outside, 4 wide move turn, dug in gamely stretch 26Jun04 MTH9 ft 6 1:09:07 STK100k * w bl set pace, saved ground, drew clear, ridden out 17Apr04 KEE9 ft 1-1/16 1:43:82 STK325k w3w bl drift in start,bumped, well placed 3-4w,flattened out 20Mar04 AQU7 gd 1M 1:35:53 STK200k 2 2¼ w bl speed outside in hand, pressed pace, short lead stretch, gamely 13Sep03 TP 10 ft 1-1/16 1:46:61 STK100k 1 no * 8 3 1w2w closest to pace, 2 path, bid 7/16 pl, swerved out 3/16 pl,driving THORO-PATTERN Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top -1 1, Pair-X-Pair (-1 1, 5, -0 3 ) StsTop%Pair%Off% X% 33 Trainer Profile - Biancone, Patrick. RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED Starts Win% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top% Pair% Off% X% Overall or less over 4-1 to over ast 90 days ast race under 11 days ast race days ast race days ast race 90+ days nd race off lay-off rd race off lay-off Colts/Geldings STK y-o y-o Apr-Jun Dirt Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Sprint to Route Adding bandages After race within 1pt of top At BE With Stevens, Gary Jockey Profile (last 12mo) - STEVENS, GARY,. Category Starts Wins Win% Path ROI Overall Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) At BE Sire Profile - BOUNDARY Category TGI Horses Starts Wins Win% ITM ITM% SW Overall y-o y-o y-o y-o and up Dirt Off tracks Turf st time turf ess than 1M M and over st time out Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings May05BE9(5:35pm) 1M DIRT STK750k 3+ PP4 POMEROY (KY) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JU AUG SEP OCT NO V DEC 2-YEAR-OD TP 8 3 bo SAR MTH 4 2 sy 4sy st BE 8 3 sy $ SAE PRICES FTF 2 300,000 KEE Y 45,000 3-YEAR-OD SAR negative # SAR negative # op- MTH negative # KEE 4 2 AQU 4 2 gd BE 01 (Apr06) b c Boundary - Questress (Seeking the Gold) 4-YEAR-OD CD gate negative # KEE --5 BREEDING QUESTRESS (94) Strts: 17 (2w, 13itm, 0sw) GODEN CHESTNUT 02 c by Horse Chestnut (16 2 ) Unraced in N. America GOD VAUT 00 f by Arch (11 2 ) Strts: 16 (3w, 9itm, 0sw) FIGHTOFTHEBUFFAO 99 c by Sultry Song (14) Strts: 32 (8w, 17itm, 0sw)

13 PP 5, SIVER WAGON SIVER WAGON 114 Ziadie, Ralph 16Apr05 KEE8 ft 7 1:22:06 STK400k 3 3½ w saved ground, angled out, mild late gain 12Mar05 GP 11 ft 7 1:21:64 STK200k 4 3¾ w bumped start, rated off pace, lacked a rally 06Feb05 GP 9 ft 6-1/2 1:16:23 AW35kNW2X 1 1¾ w stalked 3 wide, rallied, took over inside 1/8 pole, edged away 18Dec04 CRC10 ft 7 1:22:62 STK100k w bl rail trip, even finish 14Feb04 GP 11 ft 1-1/16 1:42:71 STK250k 3 7¾ w4w bl reserved early, 4 wide far turn, angled in, gained 3rd 17Jan04 GP 10 ft 1-1/16 1:43:00 STK100k 2 2¾ * 2 1 3w4w up close early, 4 wide far turn, drifted in 1/8 pole, 2nd best 13Dec03 CRC9 ft 1-1/16 1:45:79 STK100k * 7 3 1w1w steadied first turn, raced up close on rail, missed second 30Aug03 SAR8 ft 7 1:23:47 STK200k w between rivals early, angled out, split rivals stretch, drew away THORO-PATTERN Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top 2 1, Top-Off-Off (-1 3, 1 2, 1 1 ) StsTop%Pair%Off% X% 31 Trainer Profile - Ziadie, Ralph RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED Starts Win% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top% Pair% Off% X% Overall or less over 4-1 to over ast 90 days ast race under 11 days ast race days ast race days ast race 90+ days nd race off lay-off rd race off lay-off Colts/Geldings STK y-o y-o Apr-Jun Dirt Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Sprint to Route Adding bandages After race 1-4pts off top At BE With Velasquez, Cornelio H Jockey Profile (last 12mo) - VEASQUEZ, CORNEIO, H. Category Starts Wins Win% Path ROI Overall Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) At BE Sire Profile - WAGON IMIT Category TGI Horses Starts Wins Win% ITM ITM% SW Overall y-o y-o y-o y-o and up Dirt Off tracks Turf st time turf ess than 1M M and over st time out Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings May05BE9(5:35pm) 1M DIRT STK750k 3+ PP5 SIVER WAGON (F) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JU AUG SEP OCT NO V DEC 2-YEAR-OD CRC 7 3 tu SAR 3 2 bo SAR 7 1 op- CRC 15 SAE PRICES OBS 2 120,000 OBS Y 55,000 Wagon imit 2003: 2 2-y-os sold, ave 94k Wagon imit 2002: 8 ylngs sold, ave 15k CRC 5 2 GP 4 GP YEAR-OD 01 (Mar04) gr/ro c Wagon imit - So Ritzy (Darn That Alarm) BE KEE GP YEAR-OD 1 1 X GP negative # BREEDING SO RITZY (95) Strts: 8 (3w, 6itm, 0sw) REHOBOTH 03 c by Wagon imit (14 2 ) Strts: 1 (0w, 1itm, 0sw) SO SWANKY 02 c by Fly So Free (16 2 ) Strts: 7 (2w, 2itm, 0sw) SO SNAZZY 00 c by Ghazi (15) Strts: 14 (1w, 8itm, 0sw)

14 PP 6, FOREST DANGER FOREST DANGER 118 Pletcher, Todd A. 09Apr05 AQU8 ft 7 1:20:46 STK350k 1 1¾ * w outrun early, steady 3 wide advance, determined outside, clear 14Feb05 GP 9 ft 6-1/2 1:14:44 AOC100kNW4X 1 9½ * w set pace, inside, drew off, easily 01May04 AQU8 ft 1M 1:34:49 STK150k 2 3¼ * 4 3w speed outside, contested pace, stayed on gamely stretch 10Apr04 AQU7 ft 7 1:20:67 STK150k 1 7½ * -1 1w speed inside in hand, set pace, drew away when roused, driving 13Mar04 GP 2 ft 7 1:23:50 AW34kNW1X 1 2½ * 4 1w vied for lead, inside turn, drew clear, driving 14Feb04 GP 12 ft 6 1:10:09 MSW32k 1 1½ * 4 4w bounced around start, 4 wide turn, rallied, up late, driving THORO-PATTERN StsTop%Pair%Off% X% Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top -1, X-Top-Pair (4, -4 1, -4 2 ) Trainer Profile - Pletcher, Todd A. RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED Starts Win% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top% Pair% Off% X% Overall or less over 4-1 to over ast 90 days ast race under 11 days ast race days ast race days ast race 90+ days nd race off lay-off rd race off lay-off Colts/Geldings STK y-o y-o Apr-Jun Dirt Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Sprint to Route Adding bandages After race within 1pt of top At BE With Velazquez, John R Jockey Profile (last 12mo) - VEAZQUEZ, JOHN, R. Category Starts Wins Win% Path ROI Overall Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) At BE Sire Profile - FORESTRY Category TGI Horses Starts Wins Win% ITM ITM% SW Overall y-o y-o y-o y-o and up Dirt Off tracks Turf st time turf ess than 1M M and over st time out Fillies/Mares Colts/Geldings May05BE9(5:35pm) 1M DIRT STK750k 3+ PP6 FOREST DANGER (KY) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JU AUG SEP OCT NO V DEC 2-YEAR-OD SAE PRICES FTF 2 900,000 KEE Y 150,000 KEE W 135,000 AQU 4 3-YEAR-OD AQU 1-- negative # GP 4 GP 4 tu op- BE 4-YEAR-OD AQU h_pace tu negative GP negative # h? 01 (Feb16) b c Forestry - Starry Ice (Ice Age) BREEDING STARRY ICE (94) Strts: 12 (5w, 5itm, 4sw) AKE CHAMPAIN 02 f by War Chant (13 1 ) Strts: 3 (0w, 1itm, 0sw) SKIPPING STARS 00 c by Skip Away (13 2 ) Strts: 8 (0w, 2itm, 0sw) XX

15 BE9(5:35pm) 1M DIRT STK750k 3+ 30May05 AQI PAGE 1 PP1 - SIR SHACKETON, 4yo ch c (Mar26) 116 (23 days off) 07May05 CD 5 ft 7 1:20:56 STK200k 4 4¼ neg # 3w settled 4w,came 5w into lane, mild gain 16Apr05 KEE8 ft 7 1:22:06 STK400k 4 5½ * 1 1 3w close up from outset, had no late response 12Mar05 GP 11 ft 7 1:21:64 STK200k 1 1½ neg # 3w chased pace, 3 wide, rallied, up late, drew clear, driving 03Feb05 GP 9 ft 1M 1:35:89 AOC150k 1 4½ neg # 5w steadied backstretch, rallied 4 wide, drew away, driving tu (off 124 days) 02Oct04 HOO9 ft 1-1/16 1:44:04 STK500k w4w inside, angled 4wd far turn, lugged in 3/16 B bi 28Aug04 SAR11 ft 1-1/4 2:02:45 STK1000k 5 11¼ w1w rated along inside, inside trip, no response when roused FBC 07Aug04 MNR8 ft 1-1/8 1:49:16 STK600k * 0 2 4w1w taken in hand, saved ground, fired from the inside, surged clear B 11Jul04 BE8 ft 1-1/16 1:40:02 STK150k 3 4¼ *e 1 3 2w speed between rivals, chased pace, stayed on well stretch FBC 15May04 PIM12 ft 1-3/16 1:55:59 STK1000k 6 14¾ w1w between horses first turn,chased 1/2,angled in,steady fade 24Apr04 CD 9 ft 1M 1:37:61 STK100k 1 1¾ * 3 2 2w vied between early,alternated to lane,took over,driving FBC 09Apr04 KEE6 ft 7 1:23:22 AW54kNW1X 1 1¼ * 1 3 3w raced 4-5w,inched to front, steady drive 13Mar04 GP 3 ft 7 1:23:19 MSW32k 1 1½ w vied inside, edged away, drifted out nearing 1/16 pole, prevailed bo Best Previous 12 months - Dirt: 7 Off Track: - Turf: - Sprint: 7 Route: - THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pair% Off% X% Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top -2 2, Pair-Off-Off (-2, 1 1, -0 2 ) PP2 - GHOSTZAPPER, 5yo b h (Apr06) 123 (212 days off) 30Oct04 S 9 ft 1-1/4 1:59:02 STK4000k * 4 2 neg # 2w2w rushed up, set pressured pace inside, shook loose, drew clear 11Sep04 BE10 ft 1-1/8 1:46:38 STK500k 1 nk * 6 2 neg # 5w speed between rivals, carried out stretch, bumped, prevailed 21Aug04 MTH9 sy 1-1/8 1:47:66 STK200k 1 10¾ * 6 2 neg # sy 3w2w tracked early leader, challenged, clear, ridden out 04Jul04 BE9 ft 7 1:20:42 STK150k 1 4¼ * 4 3 neg # 4w in hand outside, 4 wide move, drew away when asked, ridden out bl bl bl bl (off 281 days) 27Sep03 BE7 ft 6-1/2 1:14:72 STK500k 1 6½ neg # 4w outrun early, 4 wide throughout, quick move, drew away, driving bl op- 23Aug03 SAR10 ft 7 1:22:14 STK200k 3 ½ w hustled along outside, 5 wide trip, finished fast outside bl 26Jul03 SAR7 ft 7 1:21:74 AW49kNW2X 1 ½ * 2 2 3w speed outside, 3 wide trip, dug in gamely when roused, driving bl 20Jun03 BE7 my 6 1:09:39 AW45kNW1X 1 3¼ * 2my 4w dropped back early, 4 wide trip, rolled home outside, hand ride bl FBC (off 176 days) 26Dec02 SA 3 ft 6 1:08:35 AW52kNW1X 4 7½ * 9 3 2w squeezed bit start,chased,off rail,angled in turn,no rally B 16Nov02 HO6 ft 6-1/2 1:15:57 MSW41k w stalked pace, off rail, 3 wide bid into lane, drew off,ridden out B THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pair% Off% X% Dirt 5 and up Apr-Jun: Prev Top -4 3, Top-Pair-Off (-6 2, -6 2, -4 2 ) KEY TRAINER DATA - Zito, Nicholas P. Category Starts Win% ITM% ROI Overall ast 90 days ast race days At BE With Bejarano, Rafael Sprint to Route Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Adding bandages JOCKEY - Bejarano, Rafael Category Starts Win% Path ROI Overall At BE Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) SIRE - Miswaki Category Horses Starts Win% ITM% SW TGI Overall y-o Dirt Off tracks Turf Sprints Routes KEY TRAINER DATA - Frankel, Robert J. Category Starts Win% ITM% ROI Overall ast 90 days ast race 90+ days At BE With Castellano, Javier Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Adding bandages JOCKEY - Castellano, Javier Category Starts Win% Path ROI Overall At BE Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) SIRE - Awesome Again Category Horses Starts Win% ITM% SW TGI Overall y-o and up Dirt Off tracks Turf Sprints Routes PP3 - OVE OF MONEY, 4yo dk b/ c (Apr06) 116 (5 days off) 25May05 BE8 sy 1M 1:35:27 AOC75kNW2X * 1 2 neg # sy 2w quickly clear, made pace, drew away, ridden out (off 109 days) 05Feb05 SA 9 ft 1-1/8 1:49:24 STK300k 3 3½ w2w speed, btwn foes, set pace, met bids,clear again,bested rest B (off 126 days) 02Oct04 BE10 ft 1-1/4 2:02:44 STK1000k * 8 1w1w speed inside, contested pace, tired stretch 06Sep04 PHA10 ft 1-1/8 1:48:42 STK750k 1 8½ neg # 1w1w set pace inside under rating, tried to bear out 1/4, straight bo 12Aug04 SAR7 sy 7 1:22:42 AW47kNW1X sy 2w speed in hand, argued pace, drew away, vigorous hand ride 09Jul04 BE5 ft 6 1:09:09 AW45kNW2 2 2¼ * 3 1 2w speed outside, contested pace, tired final furlong 12Jun04 BE4 ft 6 1:09:63 MSW43k w speed inside, set pace, drew clear when roused, widened, driving THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pair% Off% X% Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top -1 2, X-X-Pair (8, 2 3, -1 2 ) KEY TRAINER DATA - Dutrow, Jr., Richard E. Category Starts Win% ITM% ROI Overall ast 90 days ast race 10 days and under ast race 90+ days nd race off lay-off At BE With Prado, Edgar S Off tracks (Dirt) Routes Adding bandages JOCKEY - Prado, Edgar S. Category Starts Win% Path ROI Overall At BE Dirt Routes Off tracks (Dirt) SIRE - Not For ove Category Horses Starts Win% ITM% SW TGI Overall y-o Dirt Off tracks Turf Sprints Routes