HORSE RACING NATION S KENTUCKY DERBY SUPER SCREENER

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2 HORSE RACING NATION S KENTUCKY DERBY SUPER SCREENER INTRODUCTION There are countless ways to dissect the probable Kentucky Derby field in search of the ultimate winner. Dosage Index, Dual Qualifier status, Speed Ratings, prep race quality, Graded Stakes wins, workouts days before the Derby and trainer s Derby record are just a few of the criteria that people use when assessing the probable Derby contenders. These types of factors fall in and out of favor over the years and each has had its share of success in helping track down a Kentucky Derby winner. Each year, we are reminded of other important, proven screening criteria we should keep in mind as we handicap the Kentucky Derby. Examples would include the following: Don t bet to win on Derby entrants that have never run as a 2 year-old Only one horse (Regret) has ever won the Derby off only 3 lifetime starts (make that only two horses now that Big Brown achieved this feat in 2008) Post position 20 has never produced a winner (Big Brown busted that one as well) Must have a final prep race run at the mile and eighth distance (Charismatic was able to break that barrier in winning the 1999 Kentucky Derby and several second place Derby finishers as well) Must have a prep race in April (Yep, Big Brown defied that rule, too!) It s not to say that these criteria aren t useful, but if followed blindly, it would have lead to eliminating Big Brown from the win spot two years ago and potentially several long shot second place finishers in past runnings of the Kentucky Derby. NEW DERBY SUPER SCREENER A few years ago, we went on a search for more reliable, yet flexible, screening criteria by which we could identify (and eliminate), with greater confidence, Kentucky Derby win and in-the-money contenders. We at Horse Racing Nation believe we have found a superior screening methodology that we are excited to share with you as we enter the final days before the Derby. We re calling it the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Super Screener. All past performances services providers offer great products and we at Horse Racing Nation use several of these productive information sources. For the sake of consistency, we have used BRIS past performances data as the data source from which our Super Screener criteria was built. Over the years, we began to see consistent patterns emerge in the pace and speed rating values and configurations generated by Derby winners (and in-the-money finishers) in their final prep races. BRISNET provides access to the PP s of any horse in their database, so we decided to go back and examine the BRIS PP s for every Derby winner over the past 16 years. We quickly assessed that you only need (and should look at) the final two prep races run prior to the Derby to draw solid win contender conclusions. Let s take a look at a summary of the past 16 Derby winners and the pace lines and speed ratings of their final two prep races.

3 PAST 16 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS PACE LINES AND SPEED RATINGS OF TWO PRIOR PREP RACES (data source: BRISNET) YEAR DERBY WINNER PREP RACE DISTANCE 1994 Go For Gin 1995 Thunder Gulch 1996 Grindstone 1997 Silver Charm 1998 Real Quiet 1999 Charismatic 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2001 Monarchos 2002 War Emblem 1 mile 2003 Funny Cide 2004 Smarty Jones 2005 Giacomo 2006 Barbaro 2007 Street Sense 2008 Big Brown 1 mile 2009 Mine That Bird TWO PRIOR PREP RACES PACE/FINAL TIME RUNNING LINES 1 st Call 2 nd Call Late Pace Speed Rating The Late Pace number may require some explanation for those of you not familiar with BRIS figures. Late Pace represents the time run from the second call to the finish of the race. In a mile race, that would be the final quarter time. Higher the number, the faster the horse was closing in the final stage of the race. The first Super Screener pattern that emerges is something we all know. The Derby is won primarily by horses that have stamina in the final stages of the race. This is indicated by the pattern of increasing values observed in the prep race pace lines of most Derby winners. We ll get to the exceptions shortly, especially, Mine That Bird.

4 Next, in looking at the final speed rating of the two prep races, we can quickly draw another Super Screener conclusion that holds for just about every Derby winner over the past 16 years. To be considered a win contender, the horse must have posted a final BRIS speed rating of 102 in one of the final two prep races. Also, the difference in the final speed rating of the two prep races cannot exceed 10 points. In just about every year, this screen alone can eliminate many win contenders from consideration. There are two exceptions to this rule. The first is Giacomo. Best he could do in the final preps was a 100 BRIS speed rating. So, in a race in which we anticipate a pace meltdown as we had in 2005, 2001 and 1996 (and likely to have in 2010) drop the win contender Super Screener BRIS speed rating to 100 for closers only. The other exception to this screener, and most all other screening criteria known to mankind, is Mine That Bird s 2010 Kentucky Derby victory. I can still see my self looking up at a track monitor and eyeing Mine That Bird s odds at 50-1 and asking myself why is he ONLY All I can say about that outcome is the following: 1. How much did track conditions that day (slippery, soaked, track with strong rail bias) play in the outcome? While Mine that Bird made a good showing in the Preakness, the rest of his races in 2009 were mediocre at best. 2. Last year s 3 year-old male crop was arguably one of the weakest in recent history. Just a handful of the starters are still in training. 3. Only three horses solidly passed our Super Screener criteria last year, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Musket Man. Papa Clem came close and West Side Bernie qualified on one prep race but the difference between his final two prep races speed ratings exceeded 10 points and made him a toss. I Want Revenge was scratched, Dunkirk ran a troubled mid-pack finish though rebounded nicely in the Belmont Stakes, Musket Man finished 3 rd and Papa Clem finished 4 th. 4. Pioneerof the Nile, finished second but did not pass the Super Screener criteria. After the Derby, he never fired a good race. So, we need to put an asterisk on the 2009 Derby and chalk it up to a field in which the only horse that solidly met our criteria was scratched from the race. Another pattern that seems to really hold up well is when the late pace number and the final speed rating BOTH exceed 100. Thirteen of the sixteen past Derby winners qualify on this rule and it does a good job of eliminating more of the field. The exception to this rule is when you have super horses like Silver Charm and Big Brown that are committed front runners. While these are the only two examples from the past 16 years (we ll get to War Emblem in a minute), we can tentatively conclude that a front runner can qualify for the win spot if it meets the following prep race pace line pattern: 1st Call 2 nd Call Late Pace Final Speed Rating In the most recent runnings of the Derby, front running second place finishers such as Hard Spun and Lion Heart either met or came close to meeting this criteria to offer additional evidence of its validity. All horses but Mine That Bird qualify on this next Super Screener criteria. All Derby win contenders must post a 2 nd call pace figure of at least 90 in one of their final two prep races. Even the come-from-the clouds type closers that have won the Derby meet this criteria. You can eliminate many deep closers from the win spot using this rule despite lofty numbers being generated in the late pace number. Just too much to

5 overcome too late in the race which is why so many deep closers finish third or fourth in the Kentucky Derby and other races for that matter. Let s isolate a few individual Derby winners that produced some interesting results. First up is Thunder Gulch. If you were to have rated Thunder Gulch off his final prep race at the quirky Keeneland Race Course, he would have been an automatic throw out based on the Super Screener criteria we have presented. This is why considering the two final prep races run at a distance of at least a th (we never use a prep race run at less than miles) is so important. Based on Thunder Gulch s prior prep race, the Florida Derby, he becomes a strong qualifier especially with posting both a BRIS late pace and speed rating of 103. Charismatic presented an interesting dilemma in handicapping the 1999 Kentucky Derby. His Santa Anita Derby prep was at the distance but the numbers did not meet our Super Screener criteria. Charismatic s final prep was run at the distance at Keeneland and that pace line did meet our criteria. Even then, I failed to put Charismatic in the win spot since I so rigidly required a final prep race despite Lucas s extraordinary Derby success. Had we had the benefit of our Super Screener criteria, Charismatic would have been an automatic win contender. Street Sense was another horse in which we were forced to use the th prep race due to the freaky nature in which his final prep race was run at, where else?...keeneland! The Bluegrass Stakes that year featured the slowest early and mid pace numbers ever run in a Derby prep. This was essentially a 2-furlong race from the top of the stretch to the finish line as indicated by Street Sense s huge late pace figure of 113. Going back to his th prep race, this was also run in slow early fractions but it was clear from this race (and his Breeders Cup win) that Street Sense had an incredible turn of foot and could overcome these slow paces (something he would not encounter in the Derby having closed from back of the pack along the rail against a strong early pace). That th prep race not only met all our Super Screener criteria but that pairing of the Late Pace figure of 116 and the Final Speed Rating of 105 was all we needed to put Street Sense on top. If you must use a th prep race, insist on at least a BRIS 106 late pace figure to be considered a win contender (assuming all other criteria are met). Lastly, we wanted to point out something about the committed wire-to-wire specialist, War Emblem. His final prep race was run at Hawthorne Racecourse in the Illinois Derby. He crushed that field gate to wire, yet his pace line looks more like that of a presser. He certainly qualified as a win contender on that pace line and Final Speed Rating, but it was a clear indication that he had everything going his way at Hawthorne that day. Big wins like that are tough to figure given we tend to see inflated pace and speed rating numbers that can t be reproduced. Given Bob Baffert was the last minute trainer, we didn t question War Emblem s final prep race pace line and speed rating and used it to include him as a strong contender for the win spot despite his long odds at post time. SUPER SCREENER EXAMPLE ANALYSIS 2008 DERBY Given that the 2009 Derby results seemed so fluky due to track conditions, let s go back and take a look at the 2008 Kentucky Derby field and apply our Super Screener criteria against the pace lines and final speed rating of their final two prep races to see how this played out.

6 2008 DERBY FIELD (in Post Position order) Cool Coal Man THE 2008 KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD FINAL TWO PREP RACE SUPER SCREENER ANALYSIS (data source: BRISNET) PREP RACE DISTANCE syn Tale of Ekati Anak Nakal Court Vision Eight Belles Z Fortune Big Truck syn Visionaire syn Pyro syn Colonel John syn syn Z Humor Smooth Air Bob Black Jack syn syn Monba syn Adriano syn Denis of Cork 1 mile Cowboy Cal Recapture the Glory turf Gayego syn Big Brown 1 mile TWO PRIOR PREP RACES PACE LINE/FINAL SPEED RATINGS 1 st Call 2 nd Call Late Pace Speed Rating Fog Fog COMMENTS Not close to qualifying Marginal with those very strong pace figs but an in the $ spot only Not even close Not a win contender and questionable for in $ spot Strong win contender. Meets all criteria. Would prefer preps Marginal but doesn t meet final fig criteria and no pace meltdown here Didn t belong in this race. Owner had Derby fever. Way too slow doesn t come close to any criteria Doesn t come close and last was the big clue Late pace times were huge but needed more to contend for win Not even close Doesn t meet front runner pace minimums. Another who didn t belong here Showed nothing close to meeting the Super Screener Good play against not up to the test. 20 point gap in final preps Does not meet super screener criteria. Did pair strong late pace figs Front runner had no chance pace criteria not even close Just missed on the mid pace requirement of 90 in $ contender Front runner pace figs too weak especially in the 19 hole Absolutely dominant in meeting all stress criteria. 20 post no problem

7 In applying Horse Racing Nation s Super Screener criteria, our top horses for the 2008 Derby were as follows, along with their actual finish in the race: WIN CONTENDERS ACTUAL DERBY FINISH #1 Big Brown First #2 Eight Belles Second 2 nd Place to 4 th Place Contenders #3 Tale of Ekati Fourth #4 Recapture the Glory Fifth #5 Z Fortune Tenth #6 Colonel John Sixth #7 Denis of Cork Third The exacta was picked cold and the Trifecta and Superfecta bottom horses were all selected. None of top seven horses selected finished in the back half of the field though Z Fortune made it close! One more interesting observation and potential Super Screener criteria is the pairing of triple digit BRIS Late Pace figures in the final two prep races. This type of stamina consistency is critical in identifying the most likely in-the-money contenders of all the closers entered in the field. As a side note, none of the horses that prepped on synthetic race surfaces came close to hitting the board. Now, none of these horses met the Super Screener criteria either, which may have contributed more to their failure than the surface they prepped on. We ll need to keep an eye on this in Derby races to come. SUMMARY OF THE SUPER SCREENER CRITERIA No tool or set of rules can replace great creative handicapping (e.g. Denis of Cork was cutting up the CD surface in the mornings leading up to the 2008 Derby and he paired two triple digit BRIS Late Pace figs. in his final preps making him a stronger hit-theboard contender) but, versus some of the old stand bys, it appears we have developed a Super Screener that focuses on the most critical differentiators that best identify the winner and the in-the-money contenders of the most difficult race in the sport to win. We believe the primary reason our Super Screener has proven to be so useful over the years is because in this particular race, young horses are being asked to do something they will never have to do again run a 1 ¼ for the first time, do so in a huge field and against fortitude-testing pace lines. Let s summarize the key Super Screener criteria for picking the Kentucky Derby winner: 1. Use the two most recent prep races in applying the Super Screener 2. Discount or ignore prep races that were run loose on the lead especially on sloppy track surfaces

8 3. Derby win contenders must post a BRIS speed rating of at least 102 in one of their final two prep races. Exception: In a race with an anticipated pace meltdown, closers can qualify with a 100 BRIS speed rating ( miles distance) posted in one of the final prep races. 4. The difference between final speed ratings of the two prep races cannot exceed 10 points. 5. For closer types, demand a BRIS 2 nd call pace figure of at least 90 and for both the late pace figure and speed rating, you must see at least a minimum rating of For committed front runners, require a 1 st call pace number of 105 or higher, a 2 nd call pace number of at least 115, and a final speed rating of at least 102 (caution: this screener criteria is still developing due to the limited sample size) 7. If you must use a th mile race, demand at least a 106 BRIS late pace number. A higher number, would be preferred. 8. Never apply the Derby Super Screener on any prep race run at less than a 1 1/16 th. 9. If a horse shows triple-digit BRIS late pace figures in both of his/her final two prep races but falls short on meeting other Super Screener criteria, consider that horse to be a serious bottom-of-exotics threat. 10. Apply the Derby Super Screener with caution if none of the horses solidly meet the screening criteria (and the 2010 qualifies on this point) or the track condition at Churchill Downs comes up any condition other than fast. This Super Screener criteria has identified the Derby winner and contenders in each of the past 16 years (exception being 2009) and it eliminates non contenders from the win spot. Use it with confidence to pick your 2010 Kentucky Derby winner and Trifecta/Superfecta contenders! Next, a complete analysis of the 2010 Kentucky Derby probable field using the Horse Racing Nation s Derby Super Screener. PUTTING THE 2010 DERBY FIELD THROUGH THE HORSE RACING NATION SUPER SCREENER In our introduction to the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Super Screener, we explored time-proven clues found in the running line of each Derby entrant that can help us more confidently separate the true win contenders from the win pretenders. Never in the career of these 3 year-olds will they be asked to repeat the tremendously stressful feat of, for the first time, running a mile and a quarter while tackling a field of 19 other horses. It requires a special animal with tremendous fitness and a little racing luck to overcome the huge obstacles on the way to the winner s circle. Horse Racing Nation s Derby Super Screener does more than just ask where a horse finished in his prep races and what was his final time. It puts scrutiny on how the horse ran those prep races by submitting the entire running line against the time-tested Super Screener criteria in which every winner but one (Mine That Bird) of the past 16 runnings of the Kentucky Derby has met (even Giacomo, Thunder Gultch, War Emblem, Monarchos and other big-priced winners!). Some years, several horses meet the Super Screener criteria and in other years, such as in 2008, only two horses met the Super Screener criteria. This year, only one horse meets the Super Screener criteria (barely) Regardless, it is most useful at separating win contenders from win pretenders.

9 Remember, nothing replaces good, creative and comprehensive handicapping. But use the Super Screener to validate your convictions, make decisions on it could go either way horses and slim down your Derby exotics wagering tickets. Now, the moment we have all been waiting for. Let s apply the HRN Derby Super Screener to the 2010 Kentucky Derby field listed in Post Position order. THE 2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD FINAL TWO PREP RACE HORSE RACING NATION SUPER SCREENER ANALYSIS (pace and speed rating source: BRISNET) 2010 KY DERBY FIELD (Listed in Post Position Order) PREP RACE TWO PRIOR PREP RACES PACE LINE/FINAL SPEED RATINGS 1 st Call 2 nd Call Late Pace Speed Rating COMMENTS Morning Line Odds 1 Lookin At Lucky Ice Box Noble s Promise Super Saver Line of David Stately Victor 30-1 syn SA Derby Rebel FL Derby Ftn Youth Ark Derby Rebel Ark Derby TB Derby Ark Derby 1 Mile T Alw syn Bluegrass Turf ALW Big trouble in last. Qualifies (narrowly) off Rebel prep in which he passed the dirt test. Clearly one of the classiest of the bunch. Nice pairing of triple-digit late pace # s. Inherits top win contender role with Eskendereya out. Get s the dreaded 1 Post. Will take back along the rail. He s beatable. Qualifies as a win contender on the last race but speed rating difference between two preps exceeds the 10-point limit (barely). FL Derby prep must be discounted. Will be over bet. Bottom of exotics contender. Does not meet Super Screener criteria. Had big trouble at the start in Ark Derby. Came close in Rebel start but does not meet Late Pace 106 minimum. Was doubtful but works have been strong. Distance? Bottom of exotics contender at most. A front runner with some decent stamina and consistency. Early pace figures fall short, however. Raced very well at CD before. Only chance is if Borel can take him back and get a dream trip on the rail which is possible with the 4 post draw. Like him but only wins came when he had the lone lead early. Another need-to-lead type that just doesn t have the superior pace figures to pass the Super Screener criteria. Loose on the lead prep wins should be highly discounted unless pace numbers were ferocious. A factor early and then fades. Misses on 10-point speed rating variance maximum and does not meet other Super Screener criteria. Will run better than his odds indicate and dirt surface poses no problems. Mild bottom of exotics player.

10 7 American Lion Dean s Kitten Make Music For Me Paddy O Prado Devil May Care Conveyance Jackson Bend Mission Impazible Discreetly Mine Awesome Act Dublin 12-1 ILL Derby syn San Felipe syn LanesEnd Trf Palm Beach Bluegrass 1 Mile Trf Pasadena syn Bluegrass Trf Palm Beach BonnMiss SilverBullet Sunland Dby 1 Mile Southwest Wood Ftn Youth La Derby 1 Mile Southwest La Derby Risen Star Wood Gotham Ark Derby Rebel If he could rate, last race qualifies for win contender but he s a committed front runner, in a field of many, that does not meet the Super Screener pace criteria for speed types. Had things all his way in the ILL Derby on a speed-favoring rail. But he is head strong and difficult to rate. Note: like others, figs moved up going from SA to dirt. Assuming a pace melt down, this one nearly misses the Super Screener win criteria. (needs one more point in both the Late Pace and Speed Ratings), Would much prefer to see paired Late Pace figs. Big question is ability on dirt. Lone try was a disaster against Eskendereya. Works tell us nothing. Jockeys aren t excited about him. Looking less desirable but Super Screener says don t dismiss. Was better at sprints. Ran close with Lookin At Lucky last year. Nice bottom of Superfecta bomber but fails on Super Screener. Just gets into the field. Jock chooses over Dean s Kitten. Strong early pace figures in last come close to Super Screener front-runner criteria but late pace numbers are pretty anemic in both preps. Will out run his long odds, but looks like a fader. Last was strong and stacks up well against a weak bunch of boys. Don t like the huge difference in speed ratings between the two final preps. She s no Eight Belles but she s a contender with these. Tells you what connections feel about this field. While the Southwest race was his best, the Super Screener does not consider races less than miles. Sunland Derby numbers are not close to Screener requirements. Is THE speed of the speed. Has the honor of finishing second to Eskendereya twice but never closer that 8 ½ lengths back. Numbers don t come close to passing Super Screener criteria. Would have passed criteria with a final speed rating 3 points higher in last. Has the feel of a wise guy horse. Is this Pletcher s Invisible Ink or Bluegrass Cat? Likes CD surface. Is one of the few that posted a 100+ Late Pace # at the mile distance. With this field, a mild win contender. Definitely a strong on-theboard contender. Strategy must be keep this horse mid pack. One of eight other front runners in the field but like most of the others, his pace figures don t come close to the Super Screener criteria. Only hope is to take him way back and make one run. Lost shoe in last and is better than that. Gotham numbers make him a marginal win contender (needed seven more points in his Late Pace figure). LP s are too weak to be considered a strong win contender. Overrated? Barely misses passing the Super Screener criteria on both preps. Needs a few more points in the late pace and

11 18 Backtalk Homeboykris Sidney s Candy 5-1 Ill Derby 1 Mile Handicap 1 Mile Allowance 1 Mile Hollybull syn SA Derby syn San Felipe speed ratings. Not putting in encouraging works. Is the most consistent of the bunch. If they try to use him from the 17 hole, forget it. Needs to relax early and then just try to pick up as many tired horses, late, as possible. Other than going 2 for 2 on the CD surface, there is not much to like about this one. Doesn t come close to meeting our Super Screener criteria. Connections are doing a rain dance. If track comes up sloppy, consider as a mega long shot on your tickets. Does not qualify without prep races at longer than a mile. Even if we used these races, he doesn t pass the Super Screener criteria. Looks like a one-turn specialist. The 116 LP number achieved against Radiohead does draw attention. But Radiohead s flop in FL Derby does not encourage. Will run better than his long odds would indicate against this weak field. Dutrow confirms he ll be held to the back and then try to pass as many tired horses as possible to pick up a check. Shocker pick on the bottom, especially with these. Well, coming from the 20 post, he will definitely be outside other speed horses. Confirmed front runner does not meet the early pace Super Screener criteria. The last running line looks nearly identical to Street Sense s Bluegrass prep race configuration, however. The 114 late pace figure IS impressive. Caution: horses that run at SA and then on dirt post higher pace and speed ratings (7 to 9 points higher). Making this one a bottom-ofexotics contender. Works have been very strong but that post position is just awful, especially for a confirmed front runner. Now let s take a look at the projected order of finish for the 2010 Kentucky Derby using the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Super Screener. HORSE RACING NATION S SUPER SCREENER 2010 KENTUCKY DERBY PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH STRONGEST WIN CONTENDER 1 Lookin At Lucky 3-1 Here by default OTHER WIN CONTENDERS 8 Dean s Kitten 50-1 (misses by one point, would ACTUAL DERBY FINISH DIFFERENTIAL

12 be a huge surprise) TOP 2 ND PLACE CONTENDERS (in order of preference) 14 Mission Impazible Ice Box Dublin Devil May Care Super Saver Awesome Act 10-1 BEST BOTTOM OF TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA CONTENDERS (in order of preference) 6 Stately Victor Noble s Promise Sidney s Candy Homeboykris American Lion Make Music For Me 50-1 TOSS OUTS 10 Paddy O Prado Line of David Conveyance Jackson Bend Backtalk Discreetly Mine 30-1 Visit often for all the latest Kentucky Derby news, videos, polls, comments, insight, handicapping, recommended Trifecta/Superfecta tickets and the best contender profiles on the web! Don t forget to check back to see how our Derby Super Screener did in picking the top finishers of the 2010 Kentucky Derby. GO FAST AND WIN!