FLORIDA DERBY WAGERING GUIDE

Transcription

1 FLORIDA DERBY WAGERING GUIDE XPRESS ( ) National gambling support line

2 Hello Race Fans! Welcome to the first edition of Xpressbet s Florida Derby Wagering Guide! The crown jewel of Gulfstream Park s Champion s Meet is the Grade 1, 1,000,000 Florida Derby. A key Triple Crown prep race, the Florida Derby is a strenuous 1 1/8-mile test that will help determine which horses will continue along the path to Churchill Downs, Pimlico and Belmont Park. To help you separate the contenders from the pretenders in this year s Florida Derby, we ve produced this handy Wagering Guide so that you can bet the race with confidence. Our Florida Derby Wagering Guide was written with you, the Bettor, in mind. With nearly a decade of experience in producing big race Wagering Guides, we strive to provide you with the information, statistics and insights you need to solve the Florida Derby puzzle. Inside this Guide, you ll find Race Analysis, Contender Profiles and Value Plays, along with a 100 Wagering Strategy to help you play the race intelligently. At Xpressbet, we do more than simply process your wagers. To us, it s important that we arm our customers with the best handicapping information available. Take a look at our free Daily Picks, access the products in our Pro Shop and read our free Wagering Guides. Hopefully they ll help you cash a few wagers. Bet the Florida Derby with Xpressbet on your computer or mobile device on Saturday, March 29, and we hope our Wagering Guide will help you pinpoint the winner. Plus, play the races with us that day and you ll receive XB Rewards Points for all of your bets. In addition, you ll earn Double XB Rewards Points for your Gulfstream Park Pick 4 wagers, and Triple XB Rewards Points for your Rainbow 6 bets. Be sure to come back and download our Santa Anita Derby Wagering Guide next week, and don t forget to check out our famous Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes Wagering Guides in May and June. Good Racing Luck! The Xpressbet Team XPRESS ( )

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4 Get to know the Horses 1. Wildcat Red (3/1) Owner: Honors Stable Corp. Trainer: Jose Garoffalo Jockey: John R. Velazquez Having drawn the rail, it s nearly certain that WILDCAT RED will employ catch me if you can tactics once the gates spring in this year s Florida Derby. He showed exceptional courage last month when he took a strong Fountain of Youth field wire-to-wire, but some handicappers feel that performance was bolstered by a speed-favoring racetrack. There are new challenges this time, including an extra sixteenth of a mile and tougher horses chasing him. Simply put, it won t be easy for him to take this field the entire way again. His familiarity with the track he has 4 wins in 6 starts at Gulfstream coupled with the experience and savvy of Johnny Velazquez, a two-time Florida Derby winning jockey, are to his benefit, though. 2. Matador (15/1) Owner: John C. Oxley Trainer: Mark E. Casse Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux After beginning his career at Woodbine MATADOR made his first career dirt starts over a quirky surface at Tampa Bay Downs, running fourth and fifth in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Many horses simply don t take to that surface, though, so some handicappers will give him a pass for those performances. His credentials are still rather modest, and as a closer, MATADOR will be at the expense of racing luck today. If the frontrunners go too fast early, he will be one of those lying in wait to confront them down the lane. MATADOR s resume is light, and he hasn t shown the talent that some of these others have, so ensure the price is right before diving in. 3. Cairo Prince (9/5) Owners: Godolphin Stable, Terry Murray, Paul Braverman, Harvey Clarke and Craig Robertson Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin Jockey: Luis Saez A son of 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, CAIRO PRINCE didn t waste any time in making a name for himself, winning Aqueduct s Grade 2 Nashua Stakes in just his second career start. After finishing a strong second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes - a race run at this 1 1/8-mile distance - CAIRO PRINCE was a runaway victor in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes here in January. A winner of 3 races from 4 career starts, his best asset may be his push-button acceleration, which allows him to track the leaders early and pounce when the time is right. If he s on top of his game, there s a good chance he ll be the one in front as they hit the top of the stretch. 4. Constitution (4/1) Owners: WinStar Farm, LLC and Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano CONSTITUTION didn t make his first start until January and while it s never easy to make your stakes debut in a Grade 1 race, this one may have the talent to make that leap a seamless one. He has already made light work of two overmatched fields, and his connections aren t strangers to success at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher is on his way to his eleventh consecutive Gulfstream Park Leading Trainer Title, while this meet will be the third straight in which Javier Castellano, who opts for this one over General a Rod today, wins the Leading Jockey Title. With his tactical speed, CONSTITUTION should track the leaders and you can look for him to make a bold move to the front as they near the head of the lane. Watch Us on YouTube

5 Get to know the Horses 5. East Hall (20/1) Owner: H. Jack Hendricks & Roger Justice Trainer: William A. Kaplan Jockey: Juan C. Leyva A latecomer to the Florida Derby field, EAST HALL enters this race on the heels of off-the-board finishes in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. While his resume and reputation aren t nearly on par with some of his peers, he does have a history of running well at Gulfstream Park, including two wins and a third-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Derby. Jockey Juan Leyva will likely take him far back early and they ll look to run past some tiring rivals late. It appears unlikely that this one is a threat to win the race, but exotics players should consider him for their Trifectas and Superfectas. 6. General a Rod (7/2) Owner: J. Armando Rodriguez Trainer: Michael J. Maker Jockey: Joel Rosario GENERAL A ROD has never finished worse than second in 4 career starts and has already found his way to the winner s circle at Gulfstream Park. He defeated Wildcat Red by a head in January s Gulfstream Park Derby, and was narrowly defeated by that rival in last month s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. While this race sets up as a rubber match between those two, the presence of several new shooters muddies the waters. GENERAL A ROD drew well and he has the tactical speed to sit just off the early speed, which could allow him to get a jump on some of his other rivals. Trainer Mike Maker, who has started 5 horses in the Run for the Roses, recently called GENERAL A ROD the best chance I ve ever had for Derby success. 7. Allstar (30/1) Owner: Crossed Sabres Farm Trainer: Marcus Vitali Jockey: Orlando Bocachica Coolmore shelled out 175,000 for this son of Flower Alley as a two-year-old, but within two starts they were willing to sell him for a 25,000 maiden claiming tag. That s never a good sign. Claimed in January by his current connections, ALLSTAR won twice at Calder and makes his stakes debut here against significantly tougher competition than he has ever faced. A lastminute entrant, ALLSTAR will need to run the best race of his life to factor in the outcome today, and success would come as a surprise to handicappers and the oddsmaker, who made him the longest shot on the board at 30/1. 8. Spot (8/1) Owner: Joseph H. Moss Trainer: Nicholas P. Zito Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie SPOT was spot on in his first start under the tutelage of Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito, as he ran down the highly-regarded globetrotter, No Nay Never, in Gulfstream s Grade 2 Swale Stakes. After dropping far back early, he unleashed a powerful kick to easily defeat that field, earning a berth in this race in the process. While unproven around two turns, SPOT has the pedigree to excel racing at this distance. His sire, Pulpit, was the runner-up in the 1997 Florida Derby and subsequently sired Ice Box, the winner of this race in Look for him to sit back and let some of the others blaze the path up front. With so much speed signed on, he just may have enough kick to give Zito a record fourth Florida Derby win. Watch Us on YouTube

6 Wagering Strategies & Recommended Picks Analysis: What a great rendition of the Florida Derby! With so many talented and fast horses signed on, you can trust that they ll be moving pretty swiftly on the front end. Don t just assume that such a pace will set this race up for a closer, though. With the speed of WILDCAT RED and GENERAL A ROD dictating the pace, CAIRO PRINCE and CONSTITUTION could sit a dream trip just in behind those horses. Look for those two to get a jump on the best closers SPOT and MATADOR and for this to be a wide open race at the quarter pole. The Recommended last 3yo to win Picks the w 1. Cairo Prince 2. Constitution 3. Spot 4. General a Rod Main Contenders: There are simply very few knocks on the resume of CAIRO PRINCE, who needs a big performance here to earn his place in the Kentucky Derby field. With this performance being so important to his future, it s fair to anticipate a big Florida Derby effort from him. CONSTITUTION has all of the makings of a superstar, while GENERAL A ROD, and to a greater degree, WILDCAT RED, may be hindered by the 1 1/8-mile distance. Value Plays: SPOT is definitely a horse worth considering for your exotic wagers. While the four Main Contenders all appear pretty solid, SPOT is the best of the closers and will get involved should any of the top ones falter. He has the trainer and pedigree to succeed here, and at 8/1 on the morning line, he offers significantly better value than any of the favorites. Wagering Strategies: 5 Trifecta #3 Cairo Prince / #4 Constitution, #6 General a Rod, #8 Spot / #1 Wildcat Red, #4 Constitution, #6 General a Rod, #8 Spot (45) 2 Trifecta #1 Wildcat Red, #4 Constitution, #6 General a Rod, #8 Spot / #3 Cairo Prince / #1 Wildcat Red, #4 Constitution, #6 General a Rod, #8 Spot (24) 5 Exacta #3 Cairo Prince / #1 Wildcat Red, #4 Constitution, #6 General a Rod, #8 Spot (20) 11 Win #3 Cairo Prince (11) Pick 4 Strategy: Race 11 - Wide open race, we re recommending horses that love the course MR. ONLINE, HEY LEROY as well as TETRADRACHM. Race 12 NEVADA KID is in great form, but we recommend NIKKI S SANDCASTLE and NORUMBEGA as well. Race 13 Wide open race ALL button if you have the bankroll. Race 14 We love CAIRO PRINCE, but we recommend CONSTITITUTION as well. Are they Due? No favorite has won the Florida Derby since Big Brown did so in Last year s favorite, Itsmyluckyday, finished 2nd at odds of 1.70/1. Watch Us on YouTube

7 Florida Derby Facts & Figures Mike Smith and Edgar Prado lead all active riders with 3 Florida Derby wins each. 3 other riders have won the Florida Derby more than once: Edgar Prado (2007, 2006, 2002) Mike Smith (1996, 1995, 1994) Shane Sellers (1999, 1998) Alex Solis (1997, 1986) John Velazquez (2013, 2009) 6 horses have won the Florida Derby at odds of 20/1 or higher. 2 of those winners came within the last 10 years. The highest-paying winners of the Florida Derby are: Williamstown Kid (1966; ) Croeso (1983; ) Friends Lake (2004; 76.80) Brian s Time (1988; 67.60) Bull Inthe Heather (1993; 60.80) Ice Box (2010; 43.40) Nick Zito leads all active trainers with 3 Florida Derby wins. The only other active trainer to win the race more than once is D. Wayne Lukas. Zito s 3 Florida Derby wins came with: Dialed In (2011) Ice Box (2010) High Fly (2005) 7 Florida Derby winners went on to win the Eclipse Award for Champion Three-Year-Old Male Horse. They are: Big Brown (2008) Thunder Gulch (1995) Holy Bull (1994) Unbridled (1990) Snow Chief (1986) Swale (1984) Spectacular Bid (1979) Don t Count us Out 2 of the last 3 Florida Derby winners made their final prior start in allowance races and lost! Both Dialed In (2011) and Take Charge Indy (2012) lost allowance races immediately before they won the Florida Derby. Roses in their Future? Since 2006, the Florida Derby has produced 3 Kentucky Derby winners no other final prep race has produced more than 1. Sunshine State Strength Since 1990, the only Florida Derby winner that didn t make their most recent prior start at Gulfstream Park was Empire Maker, who won the 2003 rendition after running previously at Santa Anita. Not Bad for a Day s Work The winner of the Florida Derby earns 600,000 for about 110 seconds of work. That s 5,454 per second. Not bad for a day at the office!

8 EARN 2X POINTS ON THE FLORIDA DERBY All Pick 4 bets at Gulfstream on Florida Derby Day earn Double Rewards Points. rewards Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, IA, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line XPRESS ( )