BELMONT STAKES WAGERING GUIDE

Transcription

1 BELMONT STAKES WAGERING GUIDE DAILY LATE-BREAKING ONLINE UPDATES BEGIN JUNE 3 Palace Malice and Mike Smith win 2013 Belmont. Horsephotos.com/NTRA XPRESS ( )

2 Fellow Racing Fan, Welcome to the seventh edition of Xpressbet s free Belmont Wagering Guide! We are on the verge of witnessing history in the Belmont Stakes... again. California Chrome s dominating victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes have the racing world poised in anticipation of just the 12th Triple Crown winner June 7 at Belmont Park. If you ll pardon the pun, the Belmont Stakes seldom is a walk in the park. At this writing, it appears a large, solid field of challengers will meet California Chrome, each with designs on derailing his bid for immortality. While many racing fans will root for the California-bred star to clear this final hurdle, some will search for an upset and accompanying boxcar mutuel payoffs. We present this wagering guide to inform and entertain current and future account holders and to make the 2014 Belmont Stakes one to remember. Inside this guide you will find just about everything you need to watch and wager on the Belmont like an expert. And, of course, you can wager on the Belmont Stakes and worldwide Thoroughbred and harness racing with Xpressbet online, by phone or via mobile device. If you don t already have an Xpressbet account, please accept this complimentary guide and act now to open an account and to earn up to $125 in bonus cash! Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com. We ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. You ll also find useful Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more. Plan to return to the Xpressbet web site daily for free updates, beginning Tuesday, June 3. These will include Johnny D s in-depth, horse-by-horse analysis and revised expert opinions and selections based on scratches, post positions, weather, etc. The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2014 Belmont Stakes and look forward to serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future. Sincerely, Ron Luniewski Xpressbet XPRESS ( ) *Restrictions apply. See website for details. National gambling support line

3 BELMONT WAGERING FACTS By Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com Below are some interesting and informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes events. WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) Win Odds Average: High: (Da Tara, 2008) Low: 1.15 (Afleet Alex, 2005) Notable: 5 of the last 6 winners were 11-to-1 or more. Place Odds Average: 6.59 High: (Stay Thirsty, 2011) Low:.35 (Smarty Jones, 2004) Notable: 9 of last 10 runner-ups were 11-to-1 or less. Show Odds Average: High: (Anak Nakal, 2008-DH) Low: 1.25 (Mine That Bird, 2009) Notable: The post-time favorite has finished 3rd twice in the last 5 years. EXACTA PAYOFFS (Last 10 Years, $2 Payoff) Average: $ High: $ (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty, 2011) Low: $25.20 (Rags to Riches-Curlin, 2007) Notable: 5 of the last 6 exactas have paid $121 or more. TRIFECTA PAYOFFS (Last 10 Years, $1 Payoff) Average: $ High: $4, (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed, 2011) Low: $218 (Jazil-Bluegrass Cat-Sunriver, 2006) Notable: 4 of the last 5 trifectas have paid $ or less. SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS (Last 10 Years, $1 Payoffs) Average: $9, (Average Odds of Fourth-Place Finishers: to-1) High: $37,026 (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed-Nehro, 2011) Low: $ (Rags to Riches-Curlin-Tiago-Hard Spun, 2007) Notable: 4 of the last 6 Belmont supers paid $5,329 or more. HIGHEST-PRICED RUNNERS IN SUPERFECTA (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) Year Odds Horse Fin Da Tara 1st Birdstone 1st Anak Nakal 3rd SHORTEST-PRICED BELMONT FAVORITES (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) Year Odds Horse Fin Big Brown dnf Smarty Jones 2nd Curlin 2nd Afleet Alex 1st Mine That Bird 3rd ODDS-ON BELMONT FAVORITES (Since 1940) Total odds-on favorites: 31 Winning odds-on favorites: 12 % of Winning odds-on favorites: 38.7% Last odds-on favorite to compete: Big Brown (.30-to-1, 2008) Last odds-on favorite to win: Affirmed (.60-to-1, 1978) EXPERT SELECTION GRID Expert Bob Neumeier Mike Battaglia Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk (NBC Sports) (NBC Sports) (HRTV) (Santa Anita) (Phila. Daily News) (SiriusXM Radio) First Tonalist Wicked Strong California Chrome California Chrome California Chrome California Chrome Second California Chrome California Chrome Tonalist Tonalist Wicked Strong Commissioner Third Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin Commanding Curve Wicked Strong Ride on Curlin Ride On Curlin Fourth Ride On Curlin Commanding Curve Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin Tonalist Wicked Strong BELMONT WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, JUNE 3

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5 Meet The 2014 Belmont Contenders by Johnny D Xpressbet.com California Chrome The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner could be headed toward racing immortality in the Belmont Stakes. If successful, he will join merely 11 previous Thoroughbreds as winners of racing s ultimate prize -- the Triple Crown. If California Chrome and jockey Victor Espinoza perform as they did in earning the first two jewels of the Crown, a Belmont triumph is a mere formality. Chrome has the right style relaxed speed to be close to any type of early pace, a wicked turn of foot to take command nearing the stretch, and enough stamina to last through the finish. But, as we know, funny things happen in the Belmont Stakes. Whether it s the track composition (they don t call it Big Sandy for nothing), the mile and one-half distance, the accumulated rigors of the Triple Crown series, a group of fresh horses who have skipped the Derby, Preakness or both, something repeatedly has gone wrong for Triple Crown candidates in the Belmont since Affirmed outdueled Alydar in Commanding Curve At nearly 38-1 odds, few gave this colt much of a chance to win the Kentucky Derby, and yet he closed well to finish a non-threatening second to California Chrome. Curve s connections opted to skip the Preakness in hindsight a prudent decision to concentrate on winning the Belmont Stakes. On paper, except for his Derby finish, Commanding Curve has little to BELMONT LAST TIMES... The Last Kentucky Derby Winner to Win: Thunder Gulch (1995) Preakness Winner to Win: Afleet Alex (2005) suggest he can upset the applecart in the Belmont Stakes. He certainly ought to relish the mile and one-half distance and that alone makes him interesting, but he has just one career win to his credit a maiden score at Churchill Downs. What Commanding Curve does have in his corner is that he s an improving 3-year-old colt. The shape of the Belmont race usually is different than the Kentucky Derby. There shouldn t be as hot an early pace to set up Commanding Curve s steady, late run. Therefore, he ll really need to kick it in to catch whichever horse makes the lead in mid-stretch. Kentucky Derby Runner-Up to Win: Empire Maker (2003) Preakness Runner-Up to Win: Victory Gallop (1998) Preakness Show Horse to Win: Editor s Note (1996) Horse to Lay-Off Since Derby to Win: Palace Malice (2013) New Triple Crown Face to Win: Ruler On Ice (2011) Prepped Last at Belmont to Win: Drosselmeyer (2010) Gelding to Win: Ruler On Ice (2011) Ride On Curlin A troubled seventh in the Kentucky Derby at over 17-1 odds, Ride On Curlin gave California Chrome Preakness backers pause when he loomed ominously briefly in the Pimlico stretch. His threat proved toothless in the final sixteenth of a mile, as Chrome drew clear on his way to victory. Like California Chrome, Ride on Curlin has had plenty of experience. He s started 11 times, with two wins, three seconds and four thirds. Clearly, he s consistent, but he hasn t yet proven that he can win at a graded-stakes level. His tallies came in an Ellis Park maiden race and in an Oaklawn Park allowance test. Coming out of the Kentucky Derby, he was fit; he had no Preakness traffic issues and he possessed a full head of steam. So, with all that in his favor, if he still wasn t able to overhaul California Chrome in the Preakness, what s to suggest he s going to be able to do it going farther? Tonalist If you re looking for a possible upset candidate in the Belmont Stakes, Tonalist just might be your horse. He s a lightly raced colt with just four starts, including two wins, a second and a fourth in his first out. Christophe Clement, a conditioner who traditionally goes slowly with his stock, trains Tonalist, so there might be more development to come. Last out, Tonalist dominated a decent field in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. Granted, that victory was accomplished over a sloppy, sealed track, so it should be served with a grain of salt. However, the manner in which Tonalist powered home suggests he s a very serious 3-year-old. He broke his maiden second out by four lengths over 11 foes going a mile and one-eighth at Gulfstream. He then finished second to the highly regarded Constitution in a Gulfstream allowance test. Behind Tonalist that afternoon were Mexikoma and Wood winner and Derby fourth-place finisher Wicked Strong! Sometimes the sun is brighter rising than it is setting. BELMONT WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, JUNE 3

6 A Cat-And-Mouse Game by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter ANALYSIS: With only four possible front-runners (CALIFORNIA CHROME, TONALIST, SAMRAAT and, if he goes, SOCIAL INCLUSION), who wants the lead? How fast/slow will they go? One of Joel Rosario s (TONALIST) favorite tactics is to dictate the early pace in distance races and play catch-me-if-youcan. Victor Espinoza (CALIFORNIA CHROME) will be acutely aware of such strategy, or could take the lead himself if the others back off the early throttle. A slowish pace appears to be in the offing with a classic cat-and-mouse game between Rosario and Espinoza set to unfold. That scenario will not benefit closers RIDE ON CURLIN, COMMANDING CURVE and WICKED STRONG. MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME vs. TONALIST. Period. Please hold your calls; we have a winner. Whatever the outcome, a tip of the cap goes to CALIFORNIA CHROME, Art Sherman and the owners for a glorious ride. VALUE PLAYS: For obvious reasons, Chromies will bet him through the roof, thus opening the door for price shoppers. COMMANDING CURVE and RIDE ON CURLIN also may be reasonably overbet, as the public does not grasp the counter-intuitive disadvantage of closers going long (especially vs. a slow pace). WICKED STRONG should be looked at closely in the 8-1 or 10-1 range. TONALIST at 4-1 or higher also fits the bill. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $40 Exacta Part-Wheel: TONALIST over CALIFORNIA CHROME and WICKED STRONG ($80) $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: WICKED STRONG over CALIFORNIA CHROME and TONALIST ($20) Recent Belmont Winner Preps Year Winner Fin. Race Track 2013 Palace Malice 12th Kentucky Derby Churchill 2012 Union Rags 7th Kentucky Derby Churchill 2011 Ruler On Ice 2nd Federico Tesio Pimlico 2010 Drosselmeyer 2nd Dwyer Belmont 2009 Summer Bird 6th Kentucky Derby Churchill 2008 Da Tara 2nd Barbaro Pimlico 2007 Rags to Riches 1st Kentucky Oaks Churchill 2006 Jazil 4th Kentucky Derby Churchill 2005 Afleet Alex 1st Preakness Pimlico PICKS 1. TONALIST 2. CALIFORNIA CHROME 3. WICKED STRONG 4. RIDE ON CURLIN Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3 Stats & Trends: DERBY WINNERS IN BELMONT (Last 10 Years) Year Horse Fin Orb 3rd 2012 did not compete Animal Kingdom 6th 2010 did not compete Mine That Bird 3rd 2008 Big Brown dnf 2007 did not compete did not compete Giacomo 7th 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd 2003 Funny Cide 3rd 2002 War Emblem 8th Last Derby winner to win Belmont: Thunder Gulch, 1995 PREAKNESS WINNERS IN BELMONT (Last 10 Years) Year Horse Fin Oxbow 2nd 2012 did not compete Shackleford 5th 2010 did not compete did not compete Big Brown dnf 2007 Curlin 2nd 2006 did not compete Afleet Alex 1st 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd 2003 Funny Cide 3rd Know This: Double-Digit Doings The last 5 Belmont Stakes each have had 10 or more starters, averaging 11.8 runners. Wired Since Swale in 1984, the only wire-to-wire Belmont winner has been Da Tara in 2008.

7 EXOTIC WAGERING CHART Belmont Stakes exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack. EXACTA BOX: ($1 Wager) 2 horse box $2 3 horse box $6 4 horse box $12 5 horse box $20 6 horse box $30 7 horse box $42 8 horse box $56 EXACTA WHEEL: ($1 Wager) One Horse with All 6 horse field $5 7 horse field $6 8 horse field $7 9 horse field $8 10 horse field $9 TRIFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager) 3 Horse Box $6 4 Horse Box $24 5 Horse Box $60 6 Horse Box $120 7 Horse Box $210 8 Horse Box $336 TRIFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager) One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field $30 8 Horse Field $42 9 Horse Field $56 10 Horse Field $72 One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1) 7 Horse Field $10 8 Horse Field $12 9 Horse Field $14 10 Horse Field $16 TRIFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others $12 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others $20 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others $30 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others $42 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) SUPERFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager) 4 Horse Box $24 5 Horse Box $120 6 Horse Box $360 SUPERFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager) One Horse with All with All with All 7 Horse Field $120 8 Horse Field $210 9 Horse Field $ Horse Field $504 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) One Horse with Two Horses with All with All 7 Horse Field $40 8 Horse Field $60 9 Horse Field $84 10 Horse Field $112 (Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1 or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1) SUPERFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others $24 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others $60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others $120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others $210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) BELMONT WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, JUNE 3

8 Strong Upset Possibility by Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Reporter ANALYSIS: CALIFORNIA CHROME will be a strong favorite. The distance is a big question mark, but that applies to all the other runners as well. Victor Espinoza will have to be patient and not get caught up with any of the early speed a premature move usually is costly in the Belmont. If CALIFORNIA CHROME has the lead turning for home, he should be tough to catch. But the mile and one-half may be the great equalizer and he could be vulnerable at short odds. MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME has proven that he is the best 3-year-old in the country. Now he has to prove that he can negotiate the Belmont distance. He definitely is not a one-dimensional horse, and he figures to be in good position right behind the early leaders in a Belmont that should have an honest pace. SOCIAL INCLUSION looks like the horse that could challenge him early, but I don t see him sticking around at the end. The main threats to CHROME s Triple Crown quest figure to come from closers RIDE ON CURLIN, WICKED STRONG and COMMANDING CURVE. VALUE PLAYS: WICKED STRONG has a couple of things going for him. He is a closer with the pedigree to get the distance, and he already has won a race over the Belmont surface. He was hung wide in the Derby and should be fresh and ready to go in the Belmont. RIDE ON CURLIN and COMMANDING CURVE both ran well behind the favorite in the Preakness and Derby, respectively, and should figure in the gimmicks. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: WICKED STRONG over CALIFORNIA CHROME, RIDE ON CURLIN and COMMANDING CURVE ($60) $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: CALIFORNIA CHROME, RIDE ON CURLIN and COMMANDING CURVE over WICKED STRONG ($30) $10 Trifecta: WICKED STRONG over CALIFORNIA CHROME over RIDE ON CURLIN ($10) New Kids on the Block Since 2007, four Belmont winners made their first Triple Crown journeys winning ones: the filly Rags to Riches in 2007, Da Tara in 2008, Drosselmeyer in 2010 and Ruler on Ice in PICKS 1. WICKED STRONG 2. CALIFORNIA CHROME 3. RIDE ON CURLIN 4. COMMANDING CURVE Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3 Stats & Trends: BELMONT WINNERS IN TC RACES (Since 2000) Year Horse TC Race 2013 Palace Malice Derby 2012 Union Rags Derby 2011 Ruler On Ice none 2010 Drosselmeyer none 2009 Summer Bird Derby 2008 Da Tara none 2007 Rags to Riches none 2006 Jazil Derby 2005 Afleet Alex Derby, Preakness 2004 Birdstone Derby 2003 Empire Maker Derby 2002 Sarava none 2001 Point Given Derby, Preakness 2000 Commendable Derby DERBY, PREAKNESS TOP 4 IN BELMONT (Since 2000) Year Horse Fin Orb 3rd 2011 Shackleford 5th 2011 Animal Kingdom 6th 2009 Mine That Bird 3rd 2008 Big Brown dnf 2007 Curlin 2nd 2007 Hard Spun 4th 2005 Afleet Alex 1st 2005 Giacomo 7th 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd 2003 Funny Cide 3rd 2002 War Emblem 8th 2002 Proud Citizen 5th 2000 Impeachment 5th Know This: Looked Past Preakness Since 2000, just 2 of the last 14 Belmont winners participated in the Preakness: Point Given (2001) and Afleet Alex (2005).

9 The End of the Drought by Jeff Siegel HRTV Analyst ANALYSIS: It s been 36 years since racing has celebrated a Triple Crown winner. A strong argument can be made that there have been a number of better colts than CALIFORNIA CHROME Spectacular Bid and Smarty Jones among them that have been denied immortality in the Belmont Stakes. So no matter how dominant the California-bred colt appears to be on paper, there s always the fear that something unforeseen will occur. Bad trip, bad ride, bad weather, late scratch; you name it, it s happened. So why should we expect the drought to end in 2014? Because it simply has to, since there s a real possibility that 2014 will be the final year we see the Triple Crown s three races-in-fiveweek s schedule preserved as it s been for so many decades. MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME registered his first official workout on March 10, Since then (64 weeks), the Art Shermantrained colt has never gone more than 14 days without at least one race or one recorded drill. In an era where many of the sport s best racehorses are made of glass, soundness and the ability to consistently compete is a trait that almost always is overlooked when judging greatness. In fact, durability may be CALIFORNIA CHROME s most admirable attribute and the reason he is the one and only Triple Crown contender in the field. VALUE PLAYS: No horse that already has faced (and been beaten by) CALIFORNIA CHROME is cause for concern. TONALIST was a visually impressive and highly rated winner of the Peter Pan Stakes, and, in doing so, showed the ability to handle an off track, a factor that might come into play on race day. His two Florida races were legit and the form has held. He represents stranger danger, similar to the type of threat Coastal posed to Spectacular Bid 35 years ago. You can look it up and see how that turned out. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $80 Exacta: CALIFORNIA CHROME over TONALIST ($80) $20 Exacta: TONALIST over CALIFORNIA CHROME ($20) Online Updates Begin June 3 Make sure to top-off your knowledge by accessing Xpressbet s Belmont Wagering Guide Online Updates beginning June 3. Updates are free and include revised expert analysis and selections based on weather, post positions, etc, and Johnny D s in-depth, horse-by-horse Belmont analysis. PICKS 1. CALIFORNIA CHROME 2. TONALIST 3. COMMANDING CURVE 4. WICKED STRONG Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3 Stats & Trends: ALL 3 TC RACES & WON BELMONT (Since 1990) Year Horse 2005 Afleet Alex 2001 Point Given 1998 Victory Gallop 1996 Editor s Note 1995 Thunder Gulch 1994 Tabasco Cat 1991 Hansel DERBY, NO PREAKNESS, WON BELMONT (Since 2000) Year Horse 2013 Palace Malice 2012 Union Rags 2009 Summer Bird 2006 Jazil 2004 Birdstone 2003 Empire Maker 2000 Commendable 2ND DERBY, SKIPPED PREAKNESS (Last 20 Years) Year Horse Fin Odds 2013 Golden Soul 9th Nehro 4th Ice Box 8th 9-5* 2006 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Empire Maker 1st Invisible Ink 5th Aptitude 2nd 8-5* 1994 Strodes Creek 3rd 6-5* *Favorite Know This: Derby Duo Rarely Repeats The Kentucky Derby exacta has not been repeated in the Belmont Stakes since the great Affirmed-Alydar rivalry of 1978.

10 Good Chance For A Sweep by Jon White Santa Anita & HRTV Analyst ANALYSIS: The way I see it, CALIFORNIA CHROME has a pretty good chance to win the Belmont and end the long Triple Crown drought. Yes, running in three major races at three different tracks in a five-week period is a difficult assignment. Since Affirmed, such outstanding horses as Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Smarty Jones and Big Brown failed to win the Belmont with the Triple Crown on the line. But I think CALIFORNIA CHROME just might have what it takes to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in CALIFORNIA CHROME has demonstrated time after time that he is able to make a perfect trip happen a la Cigar in his prime. He is amenable to being rated, which is extremely important due to the testing mile and one-half distance of the Belmont. Sometimes we have seen a bad ride in the Belmont cost a horse the Triple Crown. For instance, Real Quiet lost the Belmont and the Triple Crown by a nose in 1998 when Kent Desormeaux pulled the trigger way too early. I do not expect Victor Espinoza to do something like that with CALIFORNIA CHROME. MAIN CONTENDERS: In addition to CALIFORNIA CHROME, the main contenders are Peter Pan winner TONALIST, Wood Memorial winner WICKED STRONG, Preakness runner-up RIDE ON CURLIN and Kentucky Derby runnerup COMMANDING CURVE. TONALIST, I think, is especially scary. VALUE PLAYS: Considering CALIFORNIA CHROME will be a short price, the value play in the race is TONALIST. In the Peter Pan, TONALIST rushed up early after he did not break alertly, but he still drew away in the stretch to win by four lengths. I have tremendous respect for TONALIST S trainer, Christophe Clement. If CALIFORNIA CHROME doesn t win, I will be surprised if it isn t TONALIST. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $30 Win: CALIFORNIA CHROME ($30) $20 Win: TONALIST ($20) $26 Exacta: TONALIST over CALIFORNIA CHROME ($26) $2 Exacta Box: COMMANDING CURVE, RIDE ON CURLIN, TONALIST and WICKED STRONG ($24) Fan Favorites Out of 145 previous Belmont Stakes, 61 have been won by the betting favorite. That s a 42% win rate. Stats & Trends: DERBY 1-2 FINISHERS IN BELMONT (Since 1994) Year Derby 1-2 Finish Fin 2013 Orb-Golden Soul 3rd/9th 2011 Animal Kingdom/Nehro 6th/4th 2003 Funny Cide/Empire Maker 3rd/1st 2002 War Emblem/Proud Citizen 8th/5th 2001 Monarchos/Invisible Ink 3rd/5th 1999 Charismatic/Menifee 3rd/8th 1998 Real Quiet/Victory Gallop 2nd/1st 1994 Go For Gin/Strodes Creek 2nd/3rd WINNING BELMONT POST POSITIONS (Since 1905) Post Wins Post Wins ACTIVE JOCKEYS TO WIN BELMONT Year Jockey Horse 2013 Mike Smith Palace Malice 2012 John Velazquez Union Rags 2011 Jose Valdivia, Jr. Ruler On Ice 2010 Mike Smith Drosselmeyer 2009 Kent Desormeaux Summer Bird 2008 Alan Garcia Da Tara 2007 John Velazquez Rags to Riches 2006 Fernando Jara Jazil 2005 Jeremy Rose Afleet Alex 2004 Edgar Prado Birdstone 2002 Edgar Prado Sarava 2001 Gary Stevens Point Given 1998 Gary Stevens Victory Gallop 1995 Gary Stevens Thunder Gulch PICKS 1. CALIFORNIA CHROME 2. TONALIST 3. WICKED STRONG 4. RIDE ON CURLIN Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3

11 California Crowned by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News Columnist ANALYSIS: The big question is: Can CALIFORNIA CHROME, after running the Kentucky Derby distance, still run away from the other horses in the final quarter mile at Belmont? If the Derby and Preakness winner still has that burst, the Triple Crown will be won for the first time in 36 years. If not, there are a myriad of possibilities. CC has the same tactical edge he has had in all his races the early speed to get position. That may be even more pronounced in a race without much speed. The fractions should not be taxing, and CALIFORNIA CHROME has proven adaptable to any kind of pace. MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME has won six consecutive stakes by a combined 27 1/2 lengths, all since being united with jockey Victor Espinoza. If he runs the same race he has been running, he wins again. Late Derby closers like COMMANDING CURVE rarely duplicate that form in the Belmont, as it often is an illusion in Louisville when horses are going backward so quickly. However, I was sitting outside at the eighth pole when the other CC came by me, and he was absolutely flying. RIDE ON CURLIN made a giant run in the Preakness, but just happened to be chasing a star. When you watch video of WICKED STRONG, it is clear he is much better on a straightaway than a turn. Belmont Park, with its sweeping turns, really should suit this colt s style perfectly. The Wood Memorial winner is an upset threat. TONALIST was brilliant in his Peter Pan win. VALUE PLAYS: TONALIST may be this good, and most of the money is going to be bet on the two horses that ran in the Derby and Preakness (CALIFORNIA CHROME and RIDE ON CURLIN) as well as those Derby horses which have gotten that critical, five-week layoff. Eight of the last 14 Belmont winners have had that layoff. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $50 Exacta Part-Wheel: CALIFORNIA CHROME over WICKED STRONG and RIDE ON CURLIN ($100) Oldest Triple Crown Event The Belmont Stakes, first run in 1867, is the oldest Triple Crown event. It predates the Preakness by six years and the Kentucky Derby by eight. Longshot Run 5 of the last 6 Belmont winners have had odds of at least 11-1, averaging a $36.90 return since PICKS 1. CALIFORNIA CHROME 2. WICKED STRONG 3. RIDE ON CURLIN 4. TONALIST Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3 Stats & Trends: ODDS-ON BELMONT BUSTS Last 7 Odds-On Choices Have Lost Year Horse Fin. Odds 2008 Big Brown dnf Smarty Jones 2nd Real Quiet 2nd Sunday Silence 2nd Alysheba 4th Pleasant Colony 3rd Spectacular Bid 3rd 1-5 WHERE WINNERS WERE BRED Wins State/Country 96 Kentucky 11 Virginia 7 New Jersey 6 England 5 Florida 3 New York, Pennsylvania Tennessee 2 California Maryland Texas Ireland 1 Canada TRIPLE CROWN WINNER ODDS (Odds to $1) Year Horse Odds 1978 Affirmed Seattle Slew Secretariat Citation Assault Count Fleet Whirlaway War Admiral Omaha Gallant Fox Sir Barton.40

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13 Brink of Immortality... Again by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host ANALYSIS: Once again we assemble at Belmont Park, America s most imposing oval, hopeful that a 3-year-old Thoroughbred can end the prolonged drought between Triple Crown winners. Already having met and exceeded expectations in Louisville and Baltimore, CALIFORNIA CHROME stands on the same brink of immortality that has challenged, and bested, 12 Derby- Preakness winners since Produced out of seemingly mundane bloodstock, the CA-bred son of Lucky Pulpit has been fashioned into a tactical weapon by Art Sherman, who has brought 60+ years of horsemanship along with him. In harmony with pilot Victor Espinoza, CALIFORNIA CHROME appears capable of producing multiple bursts of speed as needed and possibly has saved a requisite, strong finish for the most opportune moment. MAIN CONTENDERS: If up to the demands of the 12-furlong distance, CALIFORNIA CHROME will get the kind of up-close, stalking trip that fairs well in the Test of the Champion. RIDE ON CURLIN thoroughly distinguished himself in the Preakness, is thriving for Billy Gowan and may be the only sophomore besides the favorite to start in all three Crown events. Derby fourth WICKED STRONG and Rajiv Maragh did what they could from the difficult No. 20 post, and offer the grinder s profile that gets major shares. TONALIST is receiving the same upset glare that Freedom Child saw out of the Peter Pan last year before running a pop-and-stop 13th. VALUE PLAYS: Is Todd Pletcher trainee COMMISSIONER a live outsider? The WinStar homebred is arguably the best-bred participant for the Belmont trip, sired by 1992 winner A.P. Indy and out of a mare by 1997 winner Touch Gold. COMMISSIONER wasn t catching TONALIST in the sealed slop Peter Pan, but has the steady, stayer s style that plays well in this event without fail. He ll be no better than the 7th choice, which makes him a $30-$ 40 horse. And for all the bashing Pletcher receives about his Derby record, give him an equal amount of praise for his 13: mark in this race since WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: CALIFORNIA CHROME with WICKED STRONG, RIDE ON CURLIN, COMMISSIONER with WICKED STRONG, RIDE ON CURLIN, COMMISSIONER, TONALIST, COMMANDING CURVE and MATUSZAK ($75) $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: COMMISSIONER over CALIFORNIA CHROME, WICKED STRONG, RIDE ON CURLIN, TONALIST and COMMANDING CURVE ($25) PICKS 1. CALIFORNIA CHROME 2. COMMISSIONER 3. RIDE ON CURLIN 4. WICKED STRONG Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3 Stats & Trends: FASTEST BELMONT FINAL TIMES Year Time Horse :24 Secretariat :26 Easy Goer 1992 A.P. Indy :26-2/5 Point Given 1988 Risen Star :26-4/5 Affirmed BELMONT WINNERS SINCE AFFIRMED (Last 35 Years) 14 newcomers to Triple Crown trail 11 veterans of both Derby and Preakness 9 Derby runners who skipped Preakness (2 had middle prep) 1 Preakness runner who skipped Derby LARGEST BELMONT CROWDS Year Attendance Winner ,139 Birdstone ,222 Sarava ,864 Empire Maker ,476 Da Tara ,818 Lemon Drop Kid After TC candidate I ll Have Another scratched: ,811 Union Rags Largest without Triple Crown at stake: ,857 Point Given Know This: Unlucky Above 7 No horse has ever won the Triple Crown when facing more than 7 rivals in the Belmont Stakes. Battle of the Bulge No Triple Crown winner has faced more than 32 total rivals in the 3-race series. California Chrome already has faced 27 through the Derby (18) and Preakness (9).