Preview of The 144th Kentucky Derby Preview by californiawinning.com

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1 californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Saturday, April 21, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Preview of The 144th Kentucky Derby Preview by californiawinning.com A lot can change between now and Saturday, May 5, about two weeks away from now. But at this juncture, the following twenty horses will be in The Kentucky Derby, barring untoward events, and their trainers are also listed. Note that not only have no morning line odds yet been set, but also the riders assigned to each entry are yet to be determined, although we can make some pretty good guesses as to the latter. Here are the nineteen current points leaders, in descending order, plus Gronkowski: Magnum Moon (Todd Pletcher) Good Magic (Chad Brown) Audible (Todd Pletcher) Noble Indy ( Todd Pletcher) Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher, 4 th Entry!) Bolt D oro (Mick Ruis) Enticed (Kieran Mclaughlin) Mendelssohn (A P O Brien) Justify (Bob Baffert) Quip (Rodolphe Brisset) Flameaway (Mark Casse) Solomini (Bob Baffert) Bravazo (D Wayne Lukas)

2 My Boy Jack (J Keith Desormeaux) Promises Fulfilled (Dale Romans) Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans) Lone Sailor (Thomas Amoss) Hofburg (William Mott) Firenze Fire (Jason Servis) Gronkowski (Jeremy Noseda) This European Horse with no U.S. racing experience won his entry into the Kentucky Derby by winning the Burradon Stakes (one mile) at Newcastle Race Course, Newcastle Upon Tyne, England. (Yes, he is named after New England Cheatriot tight end Rob Gronkowski.) Notice the absence of the hobbled McKinzie, of course, due to his injury. He has accumulated 40 Derby qualifying points pre-injury, however, more than Firenze Fire (with 39). Theoretically, then, if McKinzie recovers in time to enter he could displace Firenze Fire or replace another scratched horse higher in the standings. I can find nothing definitive at the time of this writing to render this assumption incorrect. I will update this list periodically between now and my official Kentucky Derby Preview which will be transmitted to subscribers approximately May 1. Note: The first post time today is 12:00 pm PDT, 4:00 pm EDT Saturday, April 21, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!!

3 (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty calendar-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant

4 information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 2 and 3 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Note: Likeable Longshots are not available in this free version of californiawinning.com s selections, because M/L odds were not available at the time of this posting. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! ***** RACE 2: Pure Pursuit knows almost nothing but the dirt route, hits the board in the majority of his races, is the only entry to have as much as placed at RD, carries a HOF rider and sports a string of transcendent recent works, not the least of which was five 59 flat about a week ago, a harbinger of a great race. Extremely wellrested Tap You re It hit the board in his debut last year, at RD. his works are decent as are his connections. Lucky Staxx is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the M/L favorite, as he hit the board in three of four main track races, and missed a win by a half-length last time out, here at RD plus one furlong, look for him to pressure this field.

5 RACE 3: Lewis Vale wins 25% of his races, and comes off a comfortable win here at RD, with this rider aboard, the venerable gelding will challenge the field. Rested Rprettyboyfloyd kills RD (OB in nine of eleven races), he will give this field a run for your money. Mesa Sky, the M/L favorite, is such in large measure because he has won two consecutive races (both sprints), and, more importantly, has won e heady four of eight races here, including a win at RD almost three years ago, he is trained by one of the best, my only issue is that he just raced here last Saturday, in fact winning a sprint handily, although he won that race after only six days rest I just think the cumulative effect of two consecutive short-rest intervals could prove his downfall in this spot ***** ***** californiawinning.com NOTE: For additional totally free races from today s racing card, the Likeable Longshots, and other free expert handicapping information, go to californiawinning.com and click on Free Daily Selections OR better yet, why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day less than what the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, for Today s Full Race card for the mere sum of $2, or, better yet, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?

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