SEE ANALYSIS FOR GULFSTREAM RACES 5 AND 6 HEREINBELOW

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1 californiawinning.com GULFSTREAM PARK, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2018 SEE ANALYSIS FOR GULFSTREAM RACES 5 AND 6 HEREINBELOW Message Board to My Subscribers Welcome everyone to Gulfstream Park, our home for the next three weeks. A few general comments appear to be in order. In terms of the menu of races, Gulfstream has nine on a weekday and ten or eleven on weekends. Of course, they race four days a week for our purposes- Thursday through Sunday. Remember we are here because we do not want to suffer debilitating weather, such as often visits the tracks in the northeast. On a preliminary basis it would appear that the equine athletes are generally not a highly rated as those we are used to for Del Mar and Santa Anita. We may see $50,000 claimers at best, for example, whereas we commonly see $ claimers and even some $ claimers back west. There are some Bafferts and Hollendorfers as trainers to be sure: See Todd Pletcher (the Baffert of the East ), Kathleen O Connell, Armando De La Cerda, and Mark Casse, to name a few. There may not be any Mike Smiths, or Flavien Prats, but there are some Talamos and Desormeauxs, like Emiseal Jaramillo, Samy Camacho, and Egar Zayas, and even Tyler Gaffalione, who we saw out west and summers at Saratoga, for example. I am not sure if we will see him in the next three weeks.

2 SPECIAL PROJECTS-MONMOUTH PARK 9/9/18: REVISED PRICING As you recall, I am available to handicap a track of your choosing, other than our three principal tracks, for a race day. I need three days prior notice, please. The good news is that I am reducing my price for such, to remain most competitive, to a mere $15. I have been asked to handicap Monmouth Park s closeout day, next Sunday. Not because it is a great track with great equine athletes, trainers and jockeys. It isn t. However, they are anticipated to have a huge Pick 6 carryover, hence the request. Remember you can have a copy of this Special Project for next Sunday for a mere $15. To pay $15, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston. You will have to have a PayPal account, or you can create one. PayPal is an excellent funds transfer company, totally safe, and every red-blooded American should have a PayPal account. Have a winsome day, ladies and gents SOME HANDICAPPING TIPS Angles: Weight Allowance; Rest I have convinced myself, if not you ladies and gents, that weight allowance, that afforded an apprentice, is a significant angle to examine when handicapping a thoroughbred race. My case in point: one Evin Roman. A you know, he is no longer an apprentice, of course, and he is a fine jockey in his own right. Not top-echelon, mind you, but certainly high-average.

3 His current win percentage is.12. He does not seem to be engaged by the toptier trainers any longer. I saw him a year or so ago in a few stakes races as an apprentice, but not lately. He is still very good, but not what he was as an apprentice. I recall that while he was an apprentice, his win percentage was.18 for a while, and it may have even hit.19. Those win percentages were achieved while he was allowed seven-pounds/five-poounds. So for the sake of argument we will say his win percentage towards the end of his apprenticeship was.18. It is now.12. This is a substantial decline: by a whopping 33%! There are only two possible reasons for this: (i) he is not getting the good mounts, and/or (ii) the weight allowance afforded him a huge advantage in a race, as it is like getting a head start. Now of course the decline could be as a result of a combination of both factors, and that is why I said and/or. Even now, however, we see how successful Asa Espinoza (.14) and Edgar Payeras (.17) are as apprentices with huge weight allowances, namely, five pounds, and also H Figueroa (.17), seven pounds. It will be fascinating to watch the projected decline in their respective win percentages at the end of their apprenticeships/weight allowances. If my theory is correct, there will be a significant declination in all. As you know another angle I am currently developing is rest ( beware the restless horse ) or lack thereof. The principle simply stated is this: if a horse is racing on less than 28 days rest, it will be more difficult for him/her to win the race. Could he/she still win? Sure. A few horses seem almost unaffected by short rest, some are used to it and apparently thrive on it. But they are in the minority. My theory is that a race takes so much out of the horse, what with the fact of competition, whip being applied, etc., that unless they have four weeks rest they will not perform optimally. A restless horse may still challenge, and they may hit the board, but my theory is that it is that much harder for the restless horse to win the race.

4 Neither of these angles is intended as a be all-end all. They are important factors to consider, to be sure, but to truly handicap a race we have to consider not one or two or even three of route angles: we need to look at everything. Note- for the many newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in the free version of californiawinning.com s selections. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! Note: The first post time today is 11:00 am PDT, 2:00 pm EDT. Friday, September 7, 2018 Del Mar Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I

5 do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard californiawinning.com, Graded Selections.as follows Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. ***** GULFSTREAM: RACES 5 AND 6 SEE BELOW

6 RACE 5: THE VID, ONE AND ONE-SIXTEENTH MILES, TURF COURSE Very well-rested Conquest Sandman is the deserving, prohibitive favorite who will likely walk : he has only won five if five races at RD, not to mention seven of fourteen races here, he comes off an easy route win here at RD plus 330 feet, with this excellent jockey aboard, and his 2018 earnings dwarf all others, he wins barring some anomaly. One of a Kind will challenge, at least for a while, as he wins over 25% of his grass races, always of the route variety, he closes well and carries stakes master Gaffalione. Salute the Colonel wins 25% of his grass races too and won two of three at RD, look for him to show up. Likeable Longshot: (There is one for this race, and there are others today, but these are not available in this free portion of today s analysis to see this Likeable Longshot, the others, and our full expert analysis for all of today s races, just follow the instructions below remember, we are the best Southern California thoroughbred handicapper in the world!!!...) RACE 6: Six entries have won at RD, only once though Well-rested Miss Casuarina has won here at RD less 330 feet, and placed at RD here as well in her sole try at such, she is a clear and present danger. Optimistic Shot is the ML favorite, as she has top-tier connections, she hit the board in three of four dirt sprints and even won RD less 330 feet. High End Lady, racing off two weeks rest, like most of the entries, is erratic but does show flashes, she won at RD last October and carries an above-average jockey. ***** To see the entire analysis of today s card---including the all-important Likeable Longshots --- go to Today s Full Race Card at californiawinning.com and click the $5 button, and use your debit or credit card, or your PayPal account to pay $5, or, if you have a PayPal account, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment there (it s easier) OR BETTER YET---

7 Better yet, why not subscribe now, it s about 65 cents per day far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they don t give you a graded handicap, and its less than what the touts charged for their little blue card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, to subscribe for 35 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay a mere $20 through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Or to save money, you can subscribe for six months for $100, or for one year for $200 (30% discount). Thanks very much. californiawinning.com (all rights reserved) Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?