DERBY COUNTDOWN. Gotham Tampa Bay Derby San Felipe SATURDAY, MARCH 10, Bolt d Oro Photo by Barbara D. Livingston

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1 SATURDAY, MARCH 10, 2018 CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Gotham Tampa Bay Derby San Felipe Bolt d Oro Photo by Barbara D. Livingston

2 RACE 1 SUPER LOOKS Gotham Super Looks BY PETER THOMAS FORNATALE TENTH RACE Probable Post 5:42 EST 1 Mile. 3-Year-Olds. Gotham (Grade 3). Purse: $300,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 6 Free Drop Billy...Davis D Firenze Fire...Franco M Enticed...Alvarado J Beautiful Shot...Arroyo A S Dial Operator...McCarthy T Whereshetoldmetogo...Rocco J S Jr Old Time Revival...Hamilton S D Cove Blue...Landeros C Nine Route...Carmouche K PICKS: MIKE BEER Firenze Fire Free Drop Billy Dial Operator BYRON KING Free Drop Billy Enticed Firenze Fire CHUCK KUEHHAS Beautiful Shot Enticed Free Drop Billy 1. DIAL OPERATOR ( , $50,940, 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 79 Trainer: Jason Servis Pedigree: Dialed In Heir Stream (Wildcat Heir) Formulator Facts: He makes a potentially tricky stretchout from 5 1/2 furlongs to a mile, but it s notable that Servis typically has a lot of success with sprint-to-route moves. He wins at 24 percent with 49 percent in the money and a $1.97 ROI in the category. When you filter for graded stakes, the sample size obviously goes way down but the stats remain impressive: two of the six have won and four of the six have finished in the money for a fat $6.80 ROI (the winners were Actress in last year s Black-Eyed Susan and Firenze Fire in last year s Champagne). Outlook: A lot of money has been bet and lost over the years on closing sprinters stretching out, and while this is clearly a cool and talented horse it s hard to design the race in a way where he wins. Despite the stretchout, he doesn t look fast enough pace-figure wise to make the top. He could look to get position going forward and finish well as he did sprinting but using that energy early might take the starch of his finish. He ran well last time closing into a slow pace after a deft ride by Feargal Lynch got him off the bad Laurel rail. The above stats also give some hope that Servis can get a miracle out of him. But overall, he has to be considered a longshot. Value: In terms of value on the win end, 20-1 would be required. Anywhere in the double digits he could be considered to run on for the lower rungs of vertical exotics. 2. COVE BLUE ( , $36,733, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Dale Romans Pedigree: Ghostzapper Need (Strong Hope) Formulator facts: Dale Romans won this race last year with J Boys Echo. He has okay numbers with runners in graded stakes making their third start off the layoff (16 percent winners, 38 percent in the money, $2.38 ROI) but none of those winners were making their stakes debut. With 3-year-olds on dirt making their third start off the bench he is 14 percent winners, 38 percent in the money, $1.19 ROI. Outlook: Slow-developing colt has been working well for Romans at Gulfstream. Looking at his figures, he s developed at 3 and should continue to do so in these hands. He is also a candidate to make the lead early, perhaps looking to emulate his stablemate Promises Fulfilled from last week. Is he ready for this level of test? That remains to be seen, especially as this race came up pretty salty all things considered. Value: He could be considered as a wire-to-wire threat above 12-1, but with all the other speed signed on that s probably a tall task. 3. BEAUTIFUL SHOT ( , $92,080, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 75 Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Pedigree: Trappe Shot Beauty for Ashes (City Place) Formulator facts: Trainer Keith Desormeaux doesn t often ship to the Big A. In fact, in the last five years he s only sent out one runner, Dalmore, who was a longshot alsoran in the 2016 Wood. Overall in New York he s 3 for 32 with nine runners in the money and a $0.67 ROI. The three winners came in a six-week span in 2015 (Danette, Texas Red, and Exaggerator).

3 Gotham Super Looks CONTINUED Outlook: Bay ridgling caught the eye when sprinting in his debut on a day when he was the only horse to rally off the pace at Del Mar. He looked great again winning a stakes before running an even third in the Bob Hope, a race that s produced a couple of next-out winners, suggesting the form is okay. He also may have been compromised by the slow pace there. He ducks the California crew to come east, a sensible decision, but he still has plenty to find to compete with the likes of these. The distance is another question mark. Value: Double-digit odds would be required, and he seems much more likely to run underneath. 4. WHERESHETOLDMETOGO ( , $132,862, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Anthony Pecoraro Pedigree: El Padrino Undisputed Legend (Domestic Dispute) Formulator facts: Pecoraro has only had five runners in graded stakes, only one of which hit the board, all doubledigit odds. He s got fine numbers with horses coming off a win: 18 percent winners, 49 percent in the money, $1.65 ROI. Outlook: Maryland-bred looks to step up into the big leagues after demolishing a starter allowance at Gulfstream last time with a perfect trip. He also ran well in the slop three back at Gulfstream going a one-turn mile, making a strong move to the front before being collared late. We know how good he is, and others here have more upside. Value: At 20-1 or so, he could be included in your verticals, but even at that number, a win bet wouldn t be very enticing. 5. FIRENZE FIRE ( , $589,100, 24 Derby points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Jason Servis Pedigree: Poseidon s Warrior My Every Wish (Langfuhr) Formulator facts: People tend to think of Servis as a claiming trainer, and his numbers are indeed best in the department. In a massive sample, he s 27 percent winners and 60 percent in the money with a $1.96 ROI in claimers and just 10 percent winners and 40 percent in the money with a $1.90 ROI in graded stakes. Of course, Firenze Fire himself has buoyed those latter numbers with scores at 11-1 and Outlook: Had a perfect trip in the Withers and just didn t seem to see out the trip. But today he cuts back to one mile and is back going one turn, conditions under which he s a perfect 2 for 2, both in stakes. It remains to be seen how much he s truly developed. It s not a great sign that his best figure came in October of his 2-year-old season. That said, the race two back under these conditions was pretty good. He was out of position early and finished well. Has to be seen as a main contender getting back to what he does best. And the race shape with plenty of speed signed on also helps. He looks very likely to crack the exacta and is a win candidate. Value: Feels like he could be bettable at anything north of FREE DROP BILLY ( , $495,220, 14 Derby points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Dale Romans Pedigree: Union Rags Trensa (Giant s Causeway) Formulator Facts: Over the last five years, trainer Dale Romans has had three winners with 3-year-old males in graded stakes on the dirt (Keen Ice, Brody s Cause, J Boys Echo), and all three were making their second start off a layoff just like Free Drop Billy. Overall, he s 3 for 14 with a $4.22 ROI and 43 percent in the money with the move. Outlook: Talented colt looks poised for a big run off a second in the Holy Bull. Looking at his internal fractions, he is running fastest early and late in his races a sign of an improving horse. As for his performance in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, where he was bet heavily, it s a toss-out as he was stuck on the deadest of dead rails. He s cutting back a bit in distance, and while that s not necessarily ideal, all the pace in this race should bring his reserves of stamina into play. Value: A key at 8-5 or higher. 7. OLD TIME REVIVAL ( ), $48,400, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 87 Trainer: Kenneth Decker Pedigree: Brethren Diary (Congaree) Formulator facts: Decker has yet to have a winner on the NYRA circuit in five tries, although Awesome Banner did run second for him in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga last year at He has had a modest 10 percent winners and 34 percent in the money, but his ROI is relatively solid at $1.77. Outlook: Maryland invader had the misfortune of running into the multiple stakes winner Still Having Fun the last two times. He s not far back based on the figure he ran last time, but he might be in trouble when it comes to race shape, though he does have a sneaky wire chance. He looks to need the lead to do his best running and there are two inside him who run faster early, according to TimeformUS. He ll need some breaks or to show a new dimension to make a major impact, but it s not out of the

4 Gotham Super Looks CONTINUED question. He rates a chance at least to be the best of speed. Perhaps he can hang around for third at a big price. Value: One to use with more logical contenders at 15-1 or higher. 8. NINE ROUTE ( , $127,448, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 74 Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart Pedigree: The Factor-Flash Act (Sky Mesa) Formulator facts: Trainer Jeremiah Englehart has done very well in New York and he s even had a taste of graded stakes success on the national stage, winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2013 on disqualification with Ria Antonia. Overall in graded stakes he has struggled however: He s just 2 for 28 with 7 runners finishing in the money. Outlook: Based on figures and form he may find himself overmatched here. He s another who could be part of the early pace, but he might be the third or fourth best speed signed on and that s not typically a recipe for success. Look him back in against New York-breds after his form gets dirtied up in here. Value: Tough to get too excited in this spot but could be thrown in north of ENTICED ( , $230,680, 13 Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Pedigree: Medaglia d Oro It s Tricky (Mineshaft) Formulator Facts: Kiaran McLaughlin won this race in 2006 with Like Now. Outlook: Looked poised for a strong 3-year-old campaign after capping 2017 with a score in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Last time out in the Holy Bull he got his doors blown off by Audible, but perhaps he had a little excuse as the rail didn t seem like the place you wanted to be that day and he was stuck down on it for much of the running. Is that enough of an excuse to forgive and forget? That all comes down to price. He s already showed talent and he has the bloodlines to keep improving. Will the real Enticed please stand up? Value: 4-1 feels right but guessing you won t get that. Still, he s not one you want to have beat you if he can be easily included as a backup. HOW I M PLAYING: This looks like a spot to key around Free Drop Billy in the hopes that the crowd ends up divided over the other logical contenders. I ll bet him to win and in exactas with Firenze Fire and Enticed, pressing Firenze Fire. Perhaps a small saver or two with him underneath overlaid contenders.

5 RACE 1 CHART Gotham Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Dial Operator 10-1 Cove Blue 30-1 Beautiful Shot 8-1 Whereshetoldmetogo15-1 Firenze Fire 5-2 Free Drop Billy 9-5 Old Time Revival 15-1 Nine Route 30-1 Enticed 7-2 Track s morning line odds AVERAGE WINNING BEYER FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2013: Vyjack, : Samraat, : El Kabeir, : Shagaf, : J Boys Echo, 102

6 RACE 1 PACE PROJECTION Gotham Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS The Pace: The TimeformUS Pace Projector expects the early part of the race to be fast and contested. Two of the nine horses entered are assigned a TimeformUS Running Style of Leader, and another is labeled Speed. Upgrades: Firenze Fire (#5) has the top TimeformUS Late Pace rating in the field. He flattened out a bit closing into a fast pace when finishing second in the Withers Stakes last time out but should appreciate the cutback in distance to a one-turn mile. Enticed (#9) draws the advantageous outside post and has enough speed early to track off the leaders and pounce first. Free Drop Billy (#6) has not tried a one-turn race since September but has run well in all three of his sprints. He is cross-entered in the Tampa Bay Derby. Downgrades: The three speed horses, according to the Pace Projector, are Cove Blue (#2), Old Time Revival (#7), and Nine Route (#8). All three are at least 15-1 on the morning line and figured to have a tough time in this race, even if the pace was not expected to be hot. Dial Operator (#1) has won both career starts but has never raced longer than 5 1/2 furlongs. He also is stepping way up in class.

7 RACE 2SUPER LOOKS Tampa Bay Derby Super Looks BY ANDREW CHAMPAGNE ELEVENTH RACE Probable Post 5:20 EST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. TamDby (Grade 2). Purse: $400,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 5 Flameaway...Lezcano J Free Drop Billy...No Rider Vino Rosso...Velazquez J R World of Trouble...Ortiz I Jr Enticed...Gallardo A A Untamed Domain...Ortiz J L Tiz Mischief...Rosario J Quip...Geroux F Grandpa Knows Best...Leparoux J R Arazi Like Move...Spieth S Caloric...Gonzalez A Blinkers On: Arazi Like Move, Vino Rosso PICKS: MARTY MCGEE Vino Russo Untamed Domain Quip CHUCK KUEHHAS World of Trouble Vino Russo Tiz Mischief BYRON KING Tiz Michief Vino Russo Flameaway 1. ARAZI LIKE MOVE ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 74 Trainer: Aldana Gonzalez Pedigree: Graydar Bares Tripper (Sky Mesa) Formulator Fact: Gonzalez has had success with horses routing for the first time. Over the past five years, she s 3 for 15 (20 percent, $3.84 ROI) with such runners. Outlook: This gelding tries two turns for the first time in this spot following a dud in the Pasco, where he was beaten nearly 24 lengths by World of Trouble. His pedigree suggests that two turns shouldn t be an issue, but he s winless since winning his maiden for a tag last summer at Delaware Park, and he ll have to take a substantial step forward to compete with this bunch. Value: I can t endorse him at any price. 2. TIZ MISCHIEF ( , 6 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 82 Trainer: Dale Romans Pedigree: Into Mischief Indivia (Tiznow) Formulator Fact: Over the past 90 days, Romans is 4 for 15 (27 percent, 10 for 15 in the money) with horses routing second off a layoff. Outlook: He came off a brief freshening with a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, where he finished more than 13 lengths behind Audible and nearly eight back of stablemate Free Drop Billy. He could step forward in the second start of his 3-year-old campaign, but he s basically run the same race from a figure standpoint four times in a row. Value: His normal race likely gets him a piece of it, so he certainly has some appeal in the exotics at anywhere close to his 8-1 morning-line odds. 3. VINO ROSSO ( , 2 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Pedigree: Curlin Mythical Bride (Street Cry) Formulator Fact: Pletcher has won this race in four of the past five years and ran second and third behind Ring Weekend in Outlook: He raced greenly in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis, only getting going in the final furlong or so. He was beaten a bit more than a length by Flameaway and adds blinkers in this spot for Pletcher, who has had great success with this move in the past. As a fairly inexperienced horse, he has every right to take a step forward for connections who have had plenty of success in this race. Value: While he figures to be a fairly short price, he may not be favored. He s an appealing option in all wagers at his 4-1 morning-line price. 4. GRANDPA KNOWS BEST ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 79 Trainer: Ken McPeek Pedigree: More Than Ready Cocktail Cruise (Hennessy) Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, McPeek and jockey Julien Leparoux are 1 for 29 together in graded stakes races. Their lone victory came with Java s War in the 2013 Blue Grass at Keeneland. Outlook: The lightbulb went on late last year, when he reeled off a pair of wins at Churchill Downs to end his 2-year-old season. This spot represents a significant step

8 Tampa Bay Derby Super Looks CONTINUED up in class off a four-month layoff, though, and while he s shown significant early zip, this seems like a tough ask given the quality of the opposition. Value: If everything goes perfectly for him, he could hang on for a sliver at a big price. I can t see him as anything other than a possible longshot in the bottom rungs of tri and super wagers, though. 5. FLAMEAWAY ( , 10 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 93 Trainer: Mark Casse Pedigree: Scat Daddy Vulcan Rose (Fusaichi Pegasus) Formulator Fact: Over the past 90 days, Casse is 9 for 28 (32 percent) with last-out winners in route races bet to 12-1 odds or lower. Outlook: He s 2 for 2 this season, and both times he s shown heart when setting the early pace and being challenged in the stretch. That s an admirable trait, but this isn t an easy spot given his running style. World of Trouble s presence in particular all but ensures Flameaway will not sit an easy trip on the front end. Value: He s the 3-1 morning-line favorite, but I think he ll drift up a bit from that price. His résumé makes for a tough call. Either you think Flameaway is a value play at 4-1 or higher given his recent record and upward-trending Beyers, or you believe he s a bet-against after a pair of picture-perfect trips. I m in the latter camp, but I understand the first line of reasoning. 6. ENTICED ( , 13 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Pedigree: Medaglia d Oro It s Tricky (Mineshaft) Formulator Fact: Over the past six months, McLaughlin is 1 for 18 with routers second off a layoff. Outlook: He was a nonthreatening fourth when breaking from the rail in the Grade 2 Holy Bull. That was his first start in a bit more than two months, and he gets off the rail, so improvement is logical in his next prep race. The question is, which one will it be? He s one of two horses cross-entered here and in the Gotham, and where he runs will largely depend on the weather in New York. Value: If he runs, he ll be a playable price, and he s got back races that suggest anything higher than 6-1 is an overlay. 7. FREE DROP BILLY ( , 14 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Dale Romans Pedigree: Union Rags Trensa (Giant s Causeway) Formulator Fact: The earlier stat applying to Tiz Mischief also applies here. Outlook: There s no shame in running second to Audible, as Free Drop Billy did in the Holy Bull. He was easily second-best that day while running closer to the pace than he traditionally did as a 2-year-old. His pedigree says that he ll improve with experience, and continued development would make him tough if conditions prevent him from traveling to Aqueduct for the Gotham. Value: He ll likely be the betting favorite if he runs, and anything in the 5-2 to 3-1 range seems reasonable. 8. WORLD OF TROUBLE ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 97 Trainer: Jason Servis Pedigree: Kantharos Meets Expectations (Valid Expectations) Formulator Fact: Offspring of Meet Expectations are 1 for 8 in races at a mile or longer. Outlook: This horse represents the wild card in the race. He returned to the races with a smashing performance in the Pasco, stopping the timer in 1:21 and change for the sevenfurlong distance. The burning question is, can he get two turns? We ll likely find out when the field turns for home since, if he shows the early speed he displayed last time out, he s the one they ll have to run down. Value: I d need at least 5-1 to back him in any way in this spot, and there s no telling if we ll get that or not (especially given the two horses entered who may not run). Anything shorter seems like an underlay given his inexperience at this distance. 9. UNTAMED DOMAIN ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 85 Trainer: Graham Motion Pedigree: Animal Kingdom Ciao (Lear Fan) Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Motion is 1 for 7 with horses switching from turf to dirt in graded stakes races. His lone win came with Tiger Ride in the Grade 3 Valley View, which was rained off the turf. Outlook: He tries dirt for the first time after establishing himself as a strong turf prospect. Given the uncertainty among this year s dirt horses, it s easy to understand this barn taking a shot, and at least you know the distance won t be a problem. The pace scenario could also set up for a deep closer, and he s shown a strong turn of foot. Value: It s unclear if he ll like dirt, but if the turf form comes with him, he ll likely outrun his odds. He presents real value in the exotics, especially if the two crossentered horses run and his odds drift up as a result.

9 Tampa Bay Derby Super Looks CONTINUED 10. QUIP ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 77 Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset Pedigree: Distorted Humor Princess Ash (Indian Charlie) Formulator Fact: This meet at Tampa Bay Downs, Brisset is 3 for 8 in route races (five in the money). Outlook: He looked like a good one when he won his first two starts, the second of which was a romp in an allowance at Keeneland. However, when bet down to 5-1 in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he faltered, running seventh behind Enticed and Tiz Mischief. He s been off since then, and he d likely need a career-best effort in his first start since November to get a piece of this. Value: He may be one to watch down the line, but I m taking the stance that he needs a race. It s not inconceivable to think he could crash the tri or super at a big price, but anything beyond that seems like a reach. 11. CALORIC ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 70 Trainer: Michelle Winters Pedigree: Stay Thirsty Sweetest Song (Unbridled s Song) Formulator Fact: Winters has a small barn, but her record on dirt is strong. She s 4 for 17 with such runners since September. Outlook: He ll make his fourth career start for his third different trainer, and while he s flashed some ability in his last two outings (both wins), they were against claimers. Here, he s drawn the far-outside post against graded stakes opposition, and this seems like a very tall order. Value: His 50-1 morning-line price is an underlay. HOW I D PLAY IT: I need to offer two different sets of wagers, as it s unclear if Free Drop Billy and Enticed will run. If they do, I ll key Free Drop Billy in exactas, as I think he s the horse to beat if he stays in Florida (he may also be a horizontal-wager single). If he ships north, I ll use Vino Rosso and Untamed Domain on top of several others. THE BET: $5 Exacta Key Box: 7 w/2,3,6,9 ($40) OR $5 Exacta Key: 3,9 w/2,3,5,8,9 ($40)

10 RACE 2 CHART Tampa Bay Derby Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Arazi Like Move 50-1 Tiz Mischief 8-1 Vino Russo 4-1 Grandpa Knows Best 30-1 Flameaway 3-1 Enticed 6-1 Free Drop Billy 7-2 World of Trouble 5-1 Untamed Domain 6-1 Quip 20-1 Caloric 50-1 Track s morning line odds AVERAGE WINNING BEYER FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2013: Verrazano, : Ring Weekend, : Carpe Diem, : Destin, : Tapwrit, 96

11 RACE 2 PACE PROJECTION Tampa Bay Derby Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS The Pace: A field of 11 is drawn for the Tampa Bay Derby, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector expects the pace to be fast and contested. Of these 11, eight have been assigned a TimeformUS Running Style of Leader, Speed, or Tracker. One of the Trackers, Vino Rosso (#3), is adding blinkers for the first time and is likely to show more speed than he has in past races. This is included in the Pace Projector. Upgrades: Vino Rosso has run very well through the stretch in all three of his starts, despite facing a slow pace each time. Blinkers should keep him focused, and he should get a great trip from an inside post. Tiz Mischief (#2) needs to improve but should get nice setup in his second start of Free Drop Billy (#7) is cross-entered in the Wood Memorial. He should love the pace if he stays in Florida for this one. He closed from the middle of the pack as a 2-year-old to win the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. Downgrades: World of Trouble (#8) ran a monster race winning the Pasco Stakes last time out over this same Tampa surface, but he is trying two turns for the first time, will face pace pressure, and is drawn wide. Quip exits the very strong Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes but also is drawn wide and is coming off a 100-plus-day layoff.

12 RACE 3 SUPER LOOKS San Felipe Super Looks BY RON GIERKINK SIXTH RACE Probable Post 2:30 PST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. SnFelipe (Grade 2). Purse: $400,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 4 McKinzie...Smith M E Bolt d Oro...Castellano J J Kanthaka...Prat F Lombo...Bejarano R Ayacara...Desormeaux K J Aquila...Pedroza M A Peace...Van Dyke D Calexman...Quinonez A Blinkers Off: Peace PICKS: BRAD FREE McKinzie Bolt d Oro Kanthaka RICH WROBLE Kanthaka McKinzie Bolt d Oro MICHAEL HAMMERSLY Ayacara Bolt d Oro McKinzie 1. BOLT D ORO ( , 14 Derby points) Best Beyer: 103 Trainer: Mike Ruis Pedigree: Medaglia d Oro Globe Trot (A.P. Indy) Formulator Facts: Ruis is 3 for 24 (13 percent) with day layoff types over the past two years, with a return on investment of $2.30. He s 2 for 10 during that time in graded stakes ($1.36 ROI). Outlook: After a hard-fought tally in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, he was a breathtaking 7 3/4-length winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner. He was favored over an outsidebiased track in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, but a five-wide trip led to a disappointing third behind the future champion of the division, Good Magic, who was subsequently a beaten favorite in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. He missed training in late December due to a muscle pull, which delayed his return to competition, but has been working right along. His major move was a sixfurlong gate drill in 1:12 on Feb. 26, in which he got away slowly before mowing down a workmate in the stretch, while under some encouragement from Javier Castellano. He has the call on the son of a San Felipe winner. Value: It s rarely a good thing to have a setback when on the Derby trail. He figures to need one to help get him back into race shape, which was apparently the case with Good Magic in the Fountain of Youth. Don t accept anything less than 5-2 on the 2-1 second choice on the line. 2. LOMBO ( , 10 Derby points) Best Beyer: 86 Trainer: Michael Pender Pedigree: Graydar Burg Berg (Johannesburg) Formulator Facts: During the past five years, trainer Michael Pender is 2 for 22 (9 percent) with 3-year-olds exiting a victory, with a return on investment of $1.37. Lombo s new rider, Bejarano, finished second on his lone mount at the meet for Pender. Outlook: He s improved significantly with each subsequent outing, capped by a daylight score in his first two-turn try in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis. The Lewis contained two maidens, and was essentially a first-level allowance, in which Lombo set sail on a clear lead and kept on going while several of the protagonists were awful. Pender told DRF after the Lewis that the colt is capable of relaxing on the engine. He s got one way of going, he said. I think he can rate. He showed me that in the morning. Value: This group is much tougher than the one he defeated in the Lewis. At least 10-1 would be fair value on a horse who might have company up front from Aquila or Calexman. 3. AYACARA ( , 5 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Pedigree: Violence Pacifica Highway (Pulpit) Formulator Facts: Desormeaux won the 2016 Santa Anita Derby with eventual Kentucky Derby runner-up and Preakness victor Exaggerator, who was a troubled third in the San Felipe. He s 8 for 54 (15 percent) in 3-year-old graded stakes during the last five years, with a return on investment of $1.43. When teaming up with his brother, Kent, at the current Santa Anita meet, he s a solid 7 for 24. Outlook: Prior to finishing a clear second last out with blinkers on in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, his best race was arguably a distant fourth behind Bolt d Oro and Solomini in the Grade 1 FrontRunner in late September.

13 San Felipe Super Looks CONTINUED Following a layoff, he rallied for second in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes on the Tapeta at Golden Gate on Dec. 2. He tried another new surface when a non-threatening sixth in the Eddie Logan Stakes on the grass Dec. 29. Value: This field is much deeper than the Lewis, so demand at least His late-running style makes him more viable for the lower rungs of the exotics than for the top spot. 4. MCKINZIE ( , 20 Derby points) Best Beyer: 99 Trainer: Bob Baffert Pedigree: Street Sense Runway Model (Petionville) Formulator Facts: Baffert is 2 for 5 at the current Santa Anita meet when using Mike Smith. Going back five years, he boasts an impressive 41 percent strike rate (9 for 22) with 3-year-olds in graded stakes returning from a 61- to 180-day break, with a return on investment of $2.40. Outlook: His unbeaten record has a blemish due to the controversial disqualification of stablemate Solomini in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he ran greenly. He was much more professional most recently Jan. 6 when taking the Grade 3 Sham by 3 1/2 lengths over All Out Blitz and My Boy Jack, who returned to capture the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn. He had a brilliant seven-furlong work in 1:23.80 on March 4, during which he cruised by his workmate in deep stretch before galloping out strongly. He also drilled three-quarters in a bullet 1:12.60 on Feb. 17. Value: Baffert has won the San Felipe a record six times, including last year with Mastery. He appears to have this colt poised for another powerful performance, so evenmoney might be fair value for chalk players on the 8-5 morning line favorite. 5. AQUILA ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Simon Callaghan Pedigree: Union Rags Sangrita (Mr. Greeley) Formulator Facts: Over the last five years, Callaghan is 2 for 14 (14 percent) with last-out maiden winners in graded stakes, with a return on investment of $1.77. He s 1 for 2 when giving journeyman Martin Pedroza a leg up at this Santa Anita meet. Outlook: By a Belmont Stakes winner, the $685,000 juvenile purchase has improved by leaps and bounds with each subsequent outing (all three of his races were around two turns). He received an 88 Beyer for his front-running maiden victory going 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 16, and has since worked quickly for the trainer of 2015 Kentucky Derby runner-up Firing Line. Value: The pace scenario will be more taxing than in his graduation, and he could be relegated to a stalking position, akin to his second-out second-place finish. He s in capable hands, appears to possess some upside, and is worth a long look at a minimum of CALEXMAN ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 68 Trainer: Vladimir Cerin Pedigree: Midshipman Mattie Cakes (Meadowlake) Formulator Facts: In the past five years, Cerin is 6 for 57 (11 percent) with synthetic-to-dirt starters, with a return on investment of $0.77. He s 0 for 6 in 3-year-old graded stakes during that time. Outlook: He made his four starts on three different surfaces, earning his diploma third time out on the grass at Del Mar in November. After a freshening Feb. 17 at Golden Gate, he was ambitiously spotted in the El Camino Real Derby on the synthetic Tapeta track, in which he set fast fractions before tiring badly. He finished up the track behind McKinzie the only time he tried the dirt, and has never cracked 70 on the Beyer scale. Value: In his graded stakes debut, he will be the rank outsider, and is only worth a flyer at 50-1 or higher. 7. PEACE ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Richard Mandella Pedigree: Violence Queen s Triomphe (Cure the Blues) Formulator Facts: During the last five years, Mandella is 7 for 34 (21 percent) in 3-year-old graded stakes, with a return on investment of $2.65. With blinkers off during that time, he s 4 for 26 (15 percent), with an ROI of $1.15. Outlook: He gave the more experienced Shivermetimbers a run for his money while narrowly losing a fast maiden special second-time out at Del Mar, and then defeated the talented twosome of Regulate and Restoring Hope in winning a Dec. 30 maiden special route at Santa Anita. That strong showing made him the 2-1 second choice in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, in which he failed to threaten during a wide trip before checking in fifth with the addition of blinkers, which may have contributed to his subpar showing. Value: He was hugely disappointing in the Lewis. Only give Peace a chance if he s dismissed at KANTHAKA ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 99 Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Pedigree: Jimmy Creed Sliced Bread (Distorted Humor) Formulator Facts: Flavien Prat, who had other options, is sticking with him and is 3 for 8 at the meet aboard

14 San Felipe Super Looks CONTINUED Hollendorfer-trained runners. Over the past five years, Hollendorfer is 4 for 20 (20 percent) with 3-year-olds going from a sprint to a route in graded stakes, with a return on investment of $1.35. Outlook: Fresh off his maiden triumph, he got an ideal setup last time in the Grade 2 San Vicente, winning the seven-furlong tilt going away after coming from seven lengths off a rapid pace. He possesses a sprint-oriented pedigree, and is certainly questionable going long against this caliber of competition. Value: One of worst bets in racing is a closing sprinter stretching out, especially when their breeding leans more toward one-turn racing than two turns. Due to that big last-out Beyer and his high-profile connections, he s the 4-1 third choice on the line, and isn t worth backing at less than 6-1. HOW I D PLAY IT: McKinzie looks to be the now horse in this quality Derby prep. He can be singled in horizontal wagers, and keyed on top in exactas with Ayacara and Aquila.

15 RACE 3 CHART San Felipe Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Bolt d Oro 2-1 Lombo 8-1 Ayacara 8-1 McKinzie 8-5 Aquila 15-1 Calexman 30-1 Peace 15-1 Kanthaka 4-1 Track s morning line odds AVERAGE WINNING BEYER FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2013: Hear the Ghost, : California Chrome, : Dortmund, : Danzing Candy, : Mastery, 105

16 RACE 3 PACE PROJECTION San Felipe Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS The Pace: The field of eight includes two horses designated by TimeformUS as having a running style of Leader, Lombo (#2) and Calexman (#6), and five others that have shown enough speed to be considered Trackers. These are horses that have tactical speed and are likely to engage the leaders on the backstretch. With so much speed in the race, the TimeformUS Pace Projector expects to the pace to be fast. Lombo and Calexman have shown similar speed and are likely to engage each other early. Upgrades: McKinzie (#4) and Bolt d Oro (#1) are by far the most talented horses in the field. Both are versatile runners that possess enough speed to stay in striking distance, regardless of pace, and still finish strongly. Ayacara (#3) has the best TimeformUS Late Pace Rating in the field and will be passing others late. Downgrades: Lombo won the Robert B. Lewis last time out while setting a quick pace, but he was mostly running clear and wasn t facing the quality of competition. Kanthaka (#8) closed nicely to win the San Vicente Stakes last out. He is trying two turns for the first time but has the look of a closing sprinter.

17 Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH 9/16/17... Iroquois /16M... Churchill Downs...The Tabulator /30/17... FrontRunner /16M... Santa Anita...Bolt d Oro /7/17... Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Firenze Fire /7/17... Breeders Futurity /16M... Keeneland...Free Drop Billy /4/17... BC Juvenile /16M... Del Mar...Good Magic /25/17... Kentucky Jockey Club /16M... Churchill Downs...Enticed /2/17... Remsen /8M... Aqueduct...Catholic Boy /9/17... Los Alamitos Futurity /16M... Los Alamitos...McKinzie /17/17... Springboard Mile... 1 mile... Remington Park...Greyvitos /6/18... Sham... 1M... Santa Anita...McKinzie /13/18... Lecomte... 1M 70 yds... Fair Grounds...Instilled Regard /13/18... Jerome... 1 mile... Aqueduct...Firenze Fire /15/18... Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park...Mourinho /3/18... Withers /8M... Aqueduct...Avery Island /3/18... Holy Bull /16M... Gulfstream...Audible /3/18... Robert B. Lewis /16M... Santa Anita...Lombo /10/18... Sam F. Davis /16M... Tampa Bay Downs...Flameaway /17/18... Risen Star /16M... Fair Grounds...Bravazo /17/18... El Camino Real Derby /8M... Golden Gate...Paved /19/18... Southwest /16M... Oaklawn Park...My Boy Jack

18 Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH 3/3/18... Fountain of Youth /16M... Gulfstream...Promises Fulfilled /10/18... Gotham... 1M... Aqueduct /10/18... Tampa Bay Derby /16M... Tampa Bay Downs /10/18... San Felipe /16M... Santa Anita /17/18... Rebel /16M... Oaklawn /17/18... Jeff Ruby Steaks /8M... Turfway Park /24/18... Louisiana Derby /8M... Fair Grounds /25/18... Sunland Derby /8M... Sunland Park /31/18... UAE Derby /16M... Meydan /31/18... Florida Derby /8M... Gulfstream /7/18... Wood Memorial /8M... Aqueduct /7/18... Blue Grass /8M... Keeneland /7/18... Santa Anita Derby /8M... Santa Anita /14/18... Arkansas Derby /8M... Oaklawn Park /14/18... Lexington /16M... Keeneland

19 Kentucky Derby 2018 Point Standings (through 3/9/18) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS 1... Bravazo... D. Wayne Lukas $343, Promises Fullfilled... Dale Romans , Good Magic... Chad Brown ,238, Firenze Fire... Jason Servis , Snapper Sinclair... Steve Asmussen , McKinzie... Bob Baffert , Strike Power... Mark Hennig , Instilled Regard... Jerry Hollendorfer , Bolt d Oro... Mick Ruis , Free Drop Billy... Dale Romans , Solomini... Bob Baffert , Catholic Boy... Jonathan Thomas , Avery Island... Kiaran McLaughlin , Enticed... Kiaran McLaughlin , My Boy Jack... Keith Desormeaux , Combatant... Steve Asmussen , Mourinho... Bob Baffert , Flameaway... Mark Casse , Greyvitos... Adam Kitchingman , Audible... Todd Pletcher , The Tabulator... Larry Rivelli , Lombo... Mike Pender , f-paved... Michael McCarthy , Noble Indy... Todd Pletcher , Tiz Mischief... Dale Romans ,400 NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS Hollywood Star... Dale Romans , Ayacara (GB)... Keith Desormeaux , Machismo... Anthony Quartarolo , City Plan... Eoin Harty , Principe Guilherme... Steve Asmussen , Seven Trumpets... Dale Romans , All Out Blitz... Simon Callaghan , Coltandmississippi... Todd Pletcher , Sporting Chance... D. Wayne Lukas , Givemeaminit... Dallas Stewart , Lone Sailor... Tom Amoss , Tap Daddy... Steve Asmussen , Kingsville... Danny Pish , Marconi... Todd Pletcher , Take the One O One... Brian Koriner , Vouch... Arnaud Delacor , Vino Rosso... Todd Pletcher , Dark Vader... Peter Eurton , Blended Citizen... Doug O Neill , Kowboy Karma... Larry Jones , Night Strike... Bret Calhoun , Mugaritz... Jonathan Wong , Lionite... Steve Asmussen , For Him... Mike Pender , High North... Brad Cox ,200 + Not Triple Crown nominated ++ Late Triple Crown nominee +++ Owner will pay $200,000 supplemental