EASY GOER STAKES ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 EASY GOER STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #1 Stanford 2nd: #1 Stanford 3rd: #1 Stanford TVG ANALYST MIKE JOYCE Stanford is a free square on the bingo board, people. He s a layover on sheets. He s the fastest horse in the race. Since he was stretched out earlier this year, there have been two horses to beat him: Materiality and International Star. He was considered for the Derby. It s Pletcher and Castellano honestly, this race isn t even a race. I have no idea who is second best in here, and I couldn t possibly care. Make that Pick-5 and Pick-4 and be done with it. No insightful analysis can get this horse beat. It would have to be something bizarre. He ll win by 7.

2 WOODY STEPHENS STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #1 Ready for Rye 2nd: #3 Competitive Edge 3rd: #4 Two Weeks Off TVG ANALYST MATT CAROTHERS In last year s Woody Stephens, Bayern not only won by 7 1/2 lengths, earning a 108 Beyer, but also went off at a remarkable 9-1. He would later go on to win the BC Classic. I doubt that there are any future G1 winners at 10 furlongs in the 2015 running, but the field is competitive, and, yes, Competitive Edge is probably the one to beat. He is an undefeated 4-for-4, and was so devastating in winning the G3 Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard, many were clamoring for him to give it a shot and take on American Pharoah in the Belmont. Fortunately, all the noise fell on deaf ears when it came to his trainer, Todd Pletcher. This seven-furlong event makes much more sense for this lightly-raced 3-year-old, who has never been beyond a mile and will be making just his third start off a layoff on Saturday. If Ready for Rye can duplicate his March 7th performance in the Grade 2 Swale, he wins, plain and simple. I will be gambling that he does. He was so good that day, earning a 105 Beyer, and did so while blowing away the heavily-favored G1 winner Daredevil in the process. The bounce theory has never been a handicapping angle that I have been overly keen on, but I think that is precisely what happened to him in the G3 Bay Shore on April 4th. Regression in performance was due to coming back just 28 days after running a career-best, which is essentially the definition of what it means when a horse bounces. This time around, Ready for Rye has had two months to prepare, which is the same amount of time off he had going into the Swale. This, of course, is just another example of why the feat American Pharoah is trying to accomplish winning three races at three trying distances in five weeks at three completely different tracks is so rare, and has not been done since the great Affirmed in Hopefully, that streak ends Saturday.

3 JAIPUR STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #5 Unbridled s Note 2nd: #1 Power Alert 3rd: #10 Channel Marker TVG ANALYST DAVE WEAVER Race Four is the Jaipur Invitational, which is contested at the exciting distance of six furlongs on the turf. At such a short distance, you know there will be a ton of speed signed on. Here, the likes of #1 Power Alert, #6 Something Extra, and #11 Spring to the Sky will be among those battling for the early lead. It should set up nicely for a horse with finishing power such as Unbridled s Note (10/1). The multiple stakes-winner on grass has thrown in a few clunkers on dirt, but the surface switch could result in a nice performance. Of the speed horses, Power Alert looks to be the sharpest. However, it is worth noting that jockey Julian Leparoux abandons him to ride #4 Ageless. Keep an eye out for #10 Channel Marker (20/1), who could finish strong in deep stretch to be in the trifecta.

4 OGDEN PHIPPS ANALYSIS 1st: #2 Wedding Toast 2nd: #4 Untapable 3rd: #3 House Rules TVG ANALYST DAVE WEAVER The debate is on who will be the heaviest favorite of the day, American Pharoah or Untapable? Perhaps it will be in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, which goes as the fifth race. #4 Untapable (2/5) is the undisputed queen of her division. However, her two races this year haven t been as spectacular as what we saw from her in 2014, so I m going to take a shot against her with #2 Wedding Toast. She doesn t always run the same race, but her best effort can certainly compete with either of Untapable s last two outings. #3 House Rules has run her best races elsewhere (0-for-4 at Belmont Park), so that probably limits her chances to being a trifecta partner.

5 BROOKLYN INVITATIONAL STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #5 Effinex 2nd: #10 Sky Kingdom 3rd: #8 V. E. Day TVG ANALYST GINO BUCCOLA The Belmont Stakes isn t the only 12-furlong race on Saturday s card. A field of 13 older horses will contest the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap at that grueling distance, and between the huge field and the lack of a solid favorite, this should be a great betting race. #5 EFFINEX (7/2) is my top pick. This 4-year-old colt has never been better, and he won going a mile and a quarter last out at Aqueduct while earning a 107 Beyer number. His pedigree suggests he should get the distance, and there s enough pace in this race to set up for his late kick. #10 SKY KINGDOM (6-1) could get first run at the early leaders. A runaway winner of the Grade 3 Tokyo City at this distance last out, he s worked very well for Bob Baffert and has never finished out of the exacta in four 12-furlong tries. The pace figures to be hot, but this is exactly what he wants to do. #8 V. E. DAY (6-1) rounds out my trifecta. I m tossing the Fort Marcy completely, as it was his first race in seven months. When he s given a clean trip, he s very tough, as evidenced by his win in the Grade 1 Travers last summer. The presence of jockey Javier Castellano only helps his cause.

6 ACORN STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #9 Promise Me Silver 2nd: #11 Miss Ella 3rd: #1 Oceanwave TVG ANALYST PAUL LO DUCA #9 Promise Me Silver has absolutely been spectacular. The filly by Silver City is 8-for-8 with wins at six different race tracks! She s the favorite, but is also one to beat. #11 Miss Ella has done nothing wrong herself. She s 2-for-2 lifetime, she beat a good group in the Beaumont at Keeneland, and that race was only her second career start! Her talent is immense, and she just gives away seasoning to Promise Me Silver. #1 Oceanwave split the field in her last start, the Kentucky Oaks. She puts blinkers on and lures Victor Espinoza to ride. I think the cutback in distance will enhance her closing kick! So the play here is a $10 exacta box for $60 total. Good luck to everyone, and go Pharoah!

7 JUST A GAME STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #4 Coffee Clique 2nd: #6 Filimbi 3rd: #3 Discreet Marq TVG ANALYST KURT HOOVER A very competitive field of ten fillies and mares line up to do battle for the winner s share of a lucrative $700,000 purse. Last year s victor, Coffee Clique, makes her third start of the year and looks like the horse to beat. Despite being the beaten favorite in both her 2015 starts, she bobbled at the start of the Distaff Turf Mile, and figures to be dead fit for Saturday s race. She should also get a great stalking trip sitting just behind Discreet Marq and Tepin. Both are classy mares, and if either one can shake loose early, the early leader could be very tough to run down. Throw in Filimbi, who is a mile specialist, and this figures to be a very tough race, with maybe less than a length separating this group at the wire. Older fillies and mares on the turf has always been my favorite division.

8 METROPOLITAN HANDICAP ANALYSIS 1st: #9 Honor Code 2nd: #4 Tonalist 3rd: #8 Pants On Fire TVG ANALYST TODD SCHRUPP The Met Mile is a true showcase of some of the best older horses in America and beyond. An example of what makes the Met Mile one of the best races on Saturday is the presence of both Breeders Cup Classic winner Bayern and Godolphin Mile winner Tamarkuz. A big factor in the pace scenario for the Met Mile is the post position draw for Private Zone. He won the Cigar Mile last year on the rail at Aqueduct and has won some of his biggest races by staying on the inside. In a field of 10, you can expect a fast pace to begin with, but the expected pace duel should be with Private Zone and Bayern. Bayern s 2015 debut was a major disappointment. However, he had an excuse at the start, and he showed last year at Belmont in the Woody Stephens he can rebound from a poor performance and be brilliant. With the expected blistering pace duel in the Met Mile, Tonalist has an ideal set-up at a track where he has yet to lose. Another horse who will benefit from a pace meltdown is Honor Code, whose running style has been effective despite never truly getting a ridiculous early pace in front of him. Even Pants On Fire could be a factor at a price if the pace scenario in the Met Mile takes it s toll on the early leaders. Suggested Play:.50 cent Trifecta Part Wheel 4,8,9 with 4,8,9 with ALL = $24 and.50 Trifecta Part Wheel 4,8,9 with ALL with 4,8,9 = $24 TOTAL Investment = $48

9 MANHATTAN STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #10 General A Rod 2nd: #11 Jack Milton 3rd: #2 Twilight Eclipse TVG ANALYST MIKE JOYCE My first thought was, Why are they running General A Rod in the Manhattan? He has never tried the turf before and this is more than an aggressive placing, but his trainer is Todd Pletcher, and you have to consider that the man knows what he is doing. Upon closer examination, you ll notice that the bottom side of the pedigree says turf, even though his sire, Roman Ruler, is a below-average turf sire. Also, his dam s only victory came over a synthetic surface. Todd admitted that this was a swing for the fences but thought the 10-furlong distance would hit him right between the eyes. He s also run the best ThoroGraph figures by a solid point or two compared to the main contenders in here. He s got natural speed, is taking the blinkers off (an angle I love), and is probably the fastest horse in the race he just needs to take to the turf. At 20-1, I ll take a shot with Pletcher and Johnny V. I ll use the other Pletcher in Jack Milton, who will also be a bit of a price despite being just as good as anyone else in here. There isn t a lot separating the top five horses in here, and you get the sense that they could all take turns beating each other. In these situations, trip handicapping comes in handy, and Nakatani is one of the best on the turf. I ll box these two with Twilight Eclipse. I want a price, but I m not going to be dumb about it. Twilight Eclipse s resumé speaks for itself and he s the horse to beat in here.

10 BELMONT STAKES ANALYSIS 1st: #5 American Pharoah 2nd: #8 Materiality 3rd: #1 Mubtaahij TVG ANALYST SCOTT HAZELTON This is the culmination of a five-week journey which began May 1st in Louisville, Kentucky, when American Pharoah backed up everything his training had suggested when winning the Derby. Two weeks later, Baltimore turned into a breeze for Pharoah, which is why I truly feel we will witness history on Saturday evening in Elmont, New York. This horse has too much talent, too much raw speed and is just straight up too much for the rest of this field. Not one of these horses is as good as Pharoah is, and one would have to make a major leap combined with a major regression from the Derby/Preakness champ in order to create a situation where AP gets beat. American Pharoah s two workouts at Churchill since the Preakness have showed no sign of a tired or worn-out horse. For him, it s been just more of the same, and that s a good thing. Materiality may pose the biggest threat given the fact that we all know he s a good horse that had a rough journey in KY. On Saturday, he will have a much better draw being on the outside of American Pharoah. Materiality has enough early speed to stay within reach of AP and that s why he poses the biggest threat. It doesn t hurt that his sire, Afleet Alex, was one of the flashiest Belmont Stakes winners ever, one that improved over the five weeks of the Triple Crown. Finally I still believe in Mubtaahij. I feel that Mike DeKock did the right thing in allowing this horse to stay in the U.S. and train at Belmont to prepare for this test. Fitness will not be a question mark with Mubtaahij, and neither will the 1 1/2 miles. His pedigree is easily the best for distance of the Belmont Stakes. If any one international trainer is to pull off a big run in the U.S. my money would be on Mike DeKock. Enjoy a race that, regardless of the outcome, will be discussed each time we return to this point on the North American racing calendar.