Super Screener Stakes Weekend

Transcription

1 Super Screener Stakes Weekend Melody of Color Stakes G3 Hal s Hope G2 Buena Vista SA Optional Claimer Santa Anita Late Saturday, 2/23/19 By Mike Shutty

2 Contents I. Introduction p.3 II. Race Analysis p.4 III.Summarized Wagers Page p.11 IV.Suggested SA Late Pick 4 Wagers p Super Screener

3 Intro: Methodology, Goals, Features Welcome to the Super Screener s Super Stakes Weekend product featuring race analysis and wagering recommendations for key Graded Stakes and other high value, full field undercard races coming to you every weekend! The inspiration for this product came from our loyal Triple Crown and Breeders Cup Super Screener customers who have often asked us for a product focused on analyzing the key Graded Stakes that run each weekend throughout the year. We agreed and that s how we developed the Super Stakes Weekend version of the Super Screener. Like our approach with the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup ebooks, the Super Stakes Weekend ebook analysis is based on a robust, timetested research methodology driven by a powerful set of rules that Are based on evaluating the how a horse has run leading up to their race versus, the far less important, where the horse finished and in what time he/she completed their prior races. Evaluate the field based on pace projections, race shape, track biases, trip analysis, historical patterns for the race type and much more. Consistently separate horses that will finish in the top half of the field versus those that will finish in the bottom half of the field. Tosses vulnerable, low-priced horses Isolates long-shot bombers with the best chance to hit the board. For buyers of the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup Super Screener products, you ll find the format of the Super Stakes Weekend ebook to be quite familiar. We created some great features to ensure a truly engaging customer experience including the following: Complete race and horse-by-horse analysis Key race insights including pace projections and race profiles Critical information on emerging track biases and horse trip notes Interactive video race replays of key preps Isolation of vulnerable favorites and the top board hitting long shots Identification of horses to key in vertical and horizontal wagers Playability Score to guide wagering focus Wagering suggestions for each race On some of the biggest weekends of racing featuring multiple graded stakes on a single card, we ll also include Pick 4 wager suggestions. We hope you enjoy this new Super Screener product and as we launch, we would love to hear your feedback so that we can continue to improve your Super Screener experience. The Super Stakes Weekend product is offered as a monthly subscription. Each weekend s release will be delivered to you no later than Friday afternoon (by Noon Saturday for Holiday Monday racing). Subscribing is as easy as going to superscreener.com. Thank you for your continued support and interest. We truly value you as our customers Super Screener

4 Gulfstream Park R9: Melody of Colors Post Time: 3:58 PM ET // Playability Score = 6 (1= Pass, 10 =Super Value Potential) RACE ANALYSIS SUMMARY Pace projects to be near par with modest pressure and that will favor #9 Play On out of the Brad Cox barn who will sit very comfortably off the hip of the pace leader #7 Question of the Day. This filly has progressed well over her three starts and comes into this off the break but has worked steadily and solidly. While going wire-towire on the dirt after the race was taken off the turf, she did so laying out energy in a very balanced way, which means she can be tactical here and sit the trip that will work best for her. #3 Catch a Thrill, out of the Mark Casse barn, looked good in her debut, easily handling a weaker field coming from off the pace going this same five panels on the grass. Faces tougher and will need to stay closer but she is a top board hitter here and is certainly good enough to win it but an even better proposition to play under. #5 Ginger Nut ships in from Europe by the Hronis/Sadler team. Had an intense campaign running 8 times over 4 months but never missed the Superfecta in all those starts. Been away since August so may need this race and will find the pace here quicker than what she faced in England. She did face much tougher than what she ll encounter here and you have to respect a filly who defeated fields of 18 to 25 horses which included colts. Definitely include in your Exotic wagers. #1 Beechwood Ella will be coming from off the pace here and has a good shot to hit the board. Needs more pace to win it outright. Did not face fields as tough as #5 Ginger Nut did in Europe but does have a recency advantage over that rival. #6 Don t Make Fun has done nothing working in two starts on this turf course and at this distance. Really moved up in her second start. She ll sit off the pace and a repeat of that last race puts her in the mix. Another solid board hitter candidate. TOP WIN CONTENDERS RELIABLE BOARD HITTERS TO USE UNDER TOP VALUE TOP LONG SHOTS VULNERABLE FAVES #9 Play On (6-1) #3 Catch a Thrill (8-1) #5 Ginger Nut (4-1) #3 Catch a Thrill (8-1) #6 Don t Make Fun (6-1) #3 Catch a Thrill (8-1) None None Field Ranking #9 A Must #3 A Must #5 B Logical #1 B If Spreading #6 B If Spreading #2 C Toss #4 X Toss #7 X Toss #8 X Toss $20 Exacta Box 3,9 $3 Trifecta 3,9 with 1,2,5,6 with 3,9 OPTIONAL: $1 Trifecta 1,3,6,5,9 with 3,9 with 1,2,3,5,6,9 Wagering Strategy

5 Gulfstream Park R11: G3 Hal s Hope Post Time: 4:58 PM ET // Playability Score = 7 (1= Pass, 10 =Super Value Potential) KEY SCREENING CRITERIA Advantaged by pace set up 1-turn mile specialist Balanced Energy Distribution Profile Ascending form cycle pattern with 2nd or 3rd off a layoff Strong works leading up to this race 5 other Super Screener criteria WIN CONTENDERS PACE SET UP PACE PAR First Call = 92; 2nd Call = 100 PROJECTED First Call = 93; 2nd Call = 99 PACE LEADER(S): #3 Breaking Lucky, #7 Copper Town PRESSERS: #4 Wild Shot, #5 Quip, #9 Prince Lucky VALUE PLAYERS AND LONG SHOTS Headliner: Quip The pace will be fair, something close to par and the pressure will be significant with 5 horses duking it out early on. Even under those conditions this track surface can favor those that are within 3 lengths of the early lead early on. #8 Sir Anthony looms large here as both the Super Screener Top Win and Top Long Shot pick. He is a very consistent sort and definitely moves up on off going. The pace couldn t set up any better for him as he ll sit that perfect 3 lengths off the rapid pace and then use that late kick he found when blinkers came off. Offers tremendous value. Only knock is that he runs best a few races off a layoff but the risk is worth it. Other than #8 Sir Anthony, there are no other horses in this race that offer significant value or are viable bomber plays under. Now, the Pletcher pair of #7 Copper Town and #9 Prince Lucky make actually go off at decent odds given their challenges off poor recent races or long layoffs so it wouldn t hurt to cover that pair over and under our top two win picks just in case. #1 Tale of Silence, remarkably, draws an ideal inside post again which will work to his favor as he ll save ground sitting off the hot pace and then come on late making him the ideal single under player to build wagers around. Race Insights Key Preps Pace: Par/Solid Pressure Track Bias: Forwardly placed Fred Hooper (G3) Harlan s Holiday (G3) Race Shape: Fast/Moderate Tough Trips: 5, Super Screener

6 Gulfstream Park R11: G3 Hal s Hope Post Time: 4:58 PM ET // Playability Score = 7 (1= Pass, 10 =Super Value Potential) Horse Comments Odds Rank Multi-race use #8 Sir Anthony #1 Tale of Silence TOP LONG SHOT/OFF PACE 4 yr-old long shot bomber will sit comfortably off the highly contested pace reserving energy and then comes on late with a surge to prevail at a huge price. Rarely misses the Superfecta and certainly excels on the off going. Will be overlooked here and may need a race but the risk/reward value proposition will be very favorable. Very live long shot TOP BOARD HITTER/OFF PACE Very reliable sort that is always around the money and wins on occasion. His wheelhouse distance is these 1-turn miles as he is 4 for 4 in the Trifecta. Runs best fresh as he will here supported by a strong work pattern. Does his best work at Belmont Park but has submitted solid efforts here at GP. Look how often he draws inside. Benefits him again here A must 5-1 B logical #3 Breaking Lucky PRESSER Ran well to be 2nd on the sloppy sealed GP surface and produced another good effort going in the one-turn mile. Race prior was one of those huge tops that he tosses now and again. Has alway been best running 1st off the layoff. Probably has another good race in him as he does not run his best efforts when in the slop. Must be considered dangerous here. 2-1 B if spreading #6 Mr. Jordan OFF PACE like #3 Breaking Lucky, every now and again this 7 yr-old gelding submits a big race though it is happening with less frequency as he ages. Absolutely flopped last out but did the same last time off a layoff and then recovered. Under at a price. 8-1 B if spreading #5 Quip #9 Prince Lucky VULNERABLE FAVE/PRESSER After being away since May the 4 yr-old colt that was once a viable contender on the Derby trail makes his 2019 debut the Super Screener never scored this horse as a serious threat as his two best stakes performances were aided by absolutely perfect trips. Will need a race here and will be over bet. Going to let him beat us. PRESSER Stablemate to #7 Copper Town ran a huge lifetime top back in June before going on the shelf. Comes back now off the nearly 9-month layoff. Resumed training in late Dec. and more recent works have been quite sharp. Not without a chance. 4-1 C toss 10-1 C toss #7 Copper Town PACE This Pletcher charge had been away for a year and then returned with a big Optional Claimer win while sprinting but could not follow that up with another good race as the next two races were absolute disasters. Will have to prove he is back. 6-1 C toss #2 Fellowship #4 Wild Shot CLOSER Has done well on off tracks and that last race was no exception as he closed for 3rd in the G3 Fred Hooper at No question he is best at one-turn affairs and if the track comes up wet here move him up otherwise, his best isn t enough here. PRESSER A serious injury put this one on the sidelines in the summer of Recent return races were nothing special. Will be a pace factor here and in contention for a few furlongs then fades. Does move up if the track comes up wet X toss 8-1 X toss Wagering Strategy Suggested Tickets Ticket Cost #8 Sir Anthony gets overlooked here and at a big price. Focus wagers on that one in 1st and 2nd. #1 Tale of Silence is the most reliable board hitter so you can also single that one especially under to keep wagers narrow. Cover the Pletcher pair over and under in Trifecta s as an optional saver strategy. $20 Exacta 8 with 1,3,6 $1.50 Trifecta 1,3,6,8 with 1,8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,9 OPTIONAL: $1 Trifecta 7,9 with 1,3,8 with 1,3,5-8 and $1 Trifecta 1,3,8 with 7,9 with 1,3,5-9 $45 $30 $30 X toss

7 Santa Anita R8: G2 Buena Vista Post Time: 7:07 PM ET // Playability Score = 5 (1= Pass, 10 =Super Value Potential) KEY SCREENING CRITERIA Advantaged by pace set up Strong turn of foot Ascending form cycle pattern Very balanced energy distribution profile 2nd or t3rd race off the layoff 5 other Super Screener criteria WIN CONTENDERS PACE SET UP PACE PAR First Call = 90; 2nd Call = 95 PROJECTED First Call = 95: 2nd Call = 100 PACE LEADER(S): #4 Fahan Mura PRESSERS: #1 Take These Chains, #2 Ms Bad Behavior, #7 English Dancer VALUE PLAYERS AND LONG SHOTS Headliner: Vasilika #4 Fahan Mura will once again break away to a clear lead but one that will be more comfortable for her given the cut back to the mile distance and a return to company in which she is quite competitive. Hard to see her not holding onto a piece and she is not without a chance to wire the field. Is 7 for 7 in the Exacta on this turf course. #9 Vasilika is the obvious top choice here as she ll get the perfect swift and pressured pace set up against which she ll leverage her striking balanced energy distribution profile. She ll move forward 2nd off the layoff. Has won 9 of her last 10 starts and she is arguably the top older turf mare based in So. CA. Use with conviction. If any horse has a shot to upset #9 Vasilika it would be #1 Take These Chains shipping in for Brad Cox. 6 yr-old has raced just 6 times and has only run only two races since June 2017 but those recent efforts would be competitive here. Best if she is taken off the pace and comes with one big run. Deserves consideration. Race Insights Any horse going off at a price in this field is competing for 3rd or 4th place when it comes to hitting the board. #3 Zaffina is 9 for 10 in the Superfecta including a sharp 3rd place finish last out on the good turf course finishing a close 3rd to #9 Vasilika and #2 Ms Bad Behavior. She ll sit a good trip tracking behind all the speed and she is likely to move forward off that last effort which came after a 60-day break. Most of her success has come at this mile distance. While Mike Smith opts to stay with #2 Ms Bad Behavior over #10 Streak of Luck, Tyler Baze, who is 2 for 2 in the $ with this filly, takes the mount on what emerges as the Super Screener s top long shot pick to complete the Trifecta or Superfecta at big odds. As a 4 yr-old she has more room to improve and will do so third off the layoff. That razor sharp work last out is signaling readiness. Will sit about mid pack and continue on with strong energy in reserve to catch a piece at a price. Key Preps Pace: Swift/Pressured Pressure Track Bias: None Megahertz (G3) Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) Race Shape: Fast/Slow Tough Trips: None EP Taylor (G1) 2019 Super Screener

8 Santa Anita R8: G2 Buena Vista Post Time: 7:07 PM ET // Playability Score = 5 (1= Pass, 10 =Super Value Potential) Horse Comments Odds Rank Multi-race TOP BOARD HITTER/OFF PACE This win machine should have everything go her way here as the swift and pressured pace sets up use #9 Vasilika so well for her very balanced energy distribution profile. This mare is 8 for 9 on this turf course and after that big win in the G3 Megahertz she meets similar here. Improves 2nd off the layoff and a key single in vertical and horizontal wagers. Top player. 8-5 A must #1 Take These Chains TOP VALUE/PRESSER/OFF PACE Best if Tiago takes this one off the pace as she has been productive in doing so in her first 3 starts.very lightly raced 6 year-old has raced just 6 times and was away from June 2017 to Nov Barn ships in from the East and she poses the biggest threat to California s best older turf mare star, #9 Vasilika. Use under and defensively on top B if spreading #4 Fahan Mura #3 Zaffinah #2 Ms Bad Behavior #6 Amandine #10 Streak of Luck #8 Elysea s World #5 Compelled #7 English Dancer PACE This unrestrained pace maker was in over her head as the pace setter in the G1 Pegasus World Cup against the boys going long on the yielding turf. Returns to the turf course in which she is perfect in the Exacta in 7 starts going her wheelhouse distance of 1 mile. Hasn t had a break since early last year so she won t run her best but is good enough to hold on to a piece. TOP LONG SHOT/PRESSER/OFF PACE Another that is always around the money but more often finishes under. Was away from June to October and has improved in each race since sporting a progressive form cycle pattern. Will improve again here and offers significant value as a horse to play on the bottom of Exotics at a price. PRESSER Hasn t missed the Superfecta in her past 10 starts and is a very frequent 2nd place finisher. She projects to finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th in this race. Does her best work against G3 company or in minor stakes race. Lays out energy in a very balanced way for a presser type. Jockey Mike Smith stays with this mount. OFF PACE Was too close to a hot pace in a short field last out on the good turf. Redeems herself here with Van Dyke taking her back off the pressured pace and leveraging her balanced energy distribution profile to continue on with energy,. Use under. TOP LONG SHOT/OFF PACE While jockey Mike Smith abandons for #2 Ms Bad Behavior this filly has every right to improve third off the layoff and following that sparkling work. Move to Baze is a positive. Could close into a piece of this at a price. VULNERABLE FAVE/CLOSER Leaves the Chad Brown barn and joins the expanding Baltas stable. Will certainly get the pace this 6 year-old needs for her best outcome. Has been away since October and may need a race but has been training, forwardly. CLOSER Always managed to finish around the money with best efforts as of late coming while sprinting against non-graded company. Steps back up against much tougher here while returning to the mile distance. A 4th place finish would not shock. PRESSER Will be part of a very pressured pace against tougher so will likely have little left for the stretch drive. Did run her two best races in her last two outings. Certainly prefers this distance. Will be game into the stretch but will begin to gradually fade. 6-1 C toss 15-1 C toss 5-1 C toss 8-1 C toss 20-1 C toss 4-1 C toss 12-1 X toss 20-1 X toss Wagering Strategy Suggested Tickets Ticket Cost Any way you slice it, this race goes through #9 Vasilika. After that one, it is a pretty wide open race though #1 Take These Chains has the look of a potential upsetter. To have a shot at a better return, use the top long shot plays #3 Zaffinah and #10 Streak of Luck. $20 Exacta 9 with 1,3,4 $5 Trifecta 9 with 1,2,4,6 with 3,10 OPTIONAL: $4 Trifecta 1,4 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,10 $40 $48 X toss

9 Santa Anita R10: Optional Claimer Post Time: 8:10 PM ET // Playability Score = 7 (1= Pass, 10 =Super Value Potential) KEY SCREENING CRITERIA Cutting back in distance off a hot pace Proven at the 1 1/8 miles distance Advantaged by the pace set up Strong mid and late pace figures Lightly raced with form cycle progression 2nd or 3rd race off the layoff 5 other Super Screener criteria WIN CONTENDERS The pace will be honest and with the added ground a premium will be placed on fillies and mares whose energy distribution profile is middle and late. The trio of #9 Mirth, #3 Tammy s Window and #8 K P Pergoliscious best meet that criterion and other screening criteria. #9 Mirth emerges as the top win pick and offers good value as well. This filly is a recent addition to the always dangerous D Amato barn and is really the only filly in the field that is both lightly raced and has shown an ideal, gradual form cycle progression over her past 5 races with room for another bold move forward here. Was too close to a hot pace last out but held on reasonably well considering she needed the race. Look for a break out race here and at a more-than-fair price. #3 Tammy s Window and #8 K P Pergoliscious must be respected here. They are both advantaged by the pace set up and they boast other advantages detailed in the horse-by horse analyses. Race Insights PACE SET UP PACE PAR First Call = 86; 2nd Call = 88 PROJECTED First Call = 88: 2nd Call = 93 PACE LEADER(S): #4 Lady Mamba PRESSERS: #2 Stradella Road, #10 Drift Away #11 Qafilah VALUE PLAYERS AND LONG SHOTS Despite the ice cold barn of Gary Mandella, #1 Zusha is sneaky good as a big-time long shot player to be used under in Exotic wagers. This is her turf debut but she does have solid grass breeding on the dam side and Mandella does show that his charges can hit the board on a regular basis when they are making their turf debut. This lightly raced 4 year old filly ran a deceptively good 2nd race off the layoff tracking a hot pace but holding on well to be 5th and she was wide throughout that race losing at least 4 lengths to her rivals. With the switch to Tiago Pereira, he will take her back off the pace by 3 or 4 lengths, get her comfortable and then continue on with strong energy in the stretch. Form cycle analysis indicates that she is sitting on a big move forward and the risk/reward value proposition as a under long shot bomber is highly favorable. Demand at least 20-1 to include If the pace does not break down then #4 Lady Mamba has the best shot to hold on to a piece at a price. Smith sticks. Key Preps Headliner: Pace: Swift/Pressured Pace Track Bias: Closers Race Shape: Fast/Slow Tough Trips: 1, Super Screener

10 Santa Anita R10: Optional Claimer Post Time: 8:10 PM ET // Playability Score = 7 (1= Pass, 10 =Super Value Potential) Horse Comments Odds Rank Multi-race use #9 Mirth #3 Tammy s Window #8 K P Pergoliscious PRESSER/OFF PACE After being away for 7+ months this new filly to the D Amato barn submitted a decent debut tracking a brutally fast pace, dropping back and coming on again. Prior to that won 3 in a row on turf out East against easier. Has been improving steadily with each race and gets to run slower early here and form cycle analysis says a big move forward here. TOP VALUE/TOP BOARD HITTER/CLOSER Finally gets that needed hot pace to aid her late energy distribution profile. Proven at this distance and won under very similar conditions back on 5/5. 1st off the claim for Carava. Takes back and pounces late. CLOSER Another that will benefit most from the swift and pressured pace. Screener scores high that cut back in distance especially after contesting monster fractions (adjusted) in that last race. Faces easier and takes back off the pace. Contender. 6-1 A must 10-1 A must 5-2 A must #1 Zusha TOP LONG SHOT/OFF PACE Makes her turf debut and has some turf breeding on the dam side. Will likely come from off the pace here with Tiago in the irons while saving ground. Form cycle analysis is projecting a strong move forward. Use under C if spreading #4 Lady Mamba TOP LONG SHOT/PACE/PRESSER Of the forwardly placed types this one rates best despite just breaking her maiden last out sprinting on dirt. Career was interrupted twice due to injury. Lightly raced 5 yr-old has upside, proven on turf and moves up C if spreading #7 Super Patriot #2 Stradella Road #5 Sutro #10 Drift Away #11 Qafilah #6 Copper Fever CLOSER Baffert charge has been improving steadily though wins have come against more modest competition. Is 6 for 8 in the Trifecta on this turf course but has been best going the mile distance. Lays out energy in a balanced way. Use under. PACE/PRESSER After breaking her maiden she submitted her best 3 efforts to date. Toss the last one run on a wet/fast track. Prior two races are good enough to impact the Exotics here. However, will be part of the pressured pace. Better going shorter CLOSER Finally broke her maiden after 3 straight 2nd place finishes winning at this distance after the layoff. Smith abandons for #4 Lady Mamba. Despite this being the 2nd race off the layoff, not projecting a significant move forward. 4th place tops. PRESSER All 4 wins have come while tending or pressing the pace though will find the pace here a bit too much. Best effort to date came 2 races back but it was via a perfect trip and going shorter. Needs firms going for her best. Baze jumps to ride #9. PACE With more ground this Golden Gate shipper will find herself on the lead and will have to be used harder early to secure that position due to the outside draw. That will prove to be too much leaving little energy for the stretch drive pass OFF PACE Has raced 9 time without a break so no move forward here. Is facing much better and similar to the rivals she encountered last out with a comparable outcome anticipated. All prior success came against much easier toss C toss 4-1 C toss 8-1 C toss 8-1 X toss 10-1 X toss 15-1 X toss Wagering Strategy Suggested Tickets Ticket Cost The pace set up favors closers and the winner will come from the top 3 ranked A horses. Box that trio in a healthy Exacta and then use the next three best horses in 2nd and 3rd. Lock in on #9 to win in a narrow on top Superfecta ticket going for the bigger score. $10 Exacta Box 3,8,9 $2 Trifecta 3,8,9 with 3,8,9 with 1,2,4,7 SAVER: $1 Trifecta 3,8,9 with 1,2,4,7 with 3,8,9 OPTIONAL: $1 Superfecta 9 with 3,8 with 1,2,3,4,7,8 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10 $.20 Superfecta 3,8,9 with 1,2,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10 with 1,4 $48 $24 $36

11 Super Stakes Weekend Summarized Wagering Guide Suggested Wager Bundles to Choose From Date Track/Race Wager Total SAT 2/23 Gulfstream Park 9th $20 Exacta Box 3,9 $3 Trifecta 3,9 with 1,2,5,6 with 3,9 $40 $48 OPTIONAL: $1 Trifecta 1,3,6,5,9 with 3,9 with 1,2,3,5,6,9 $32 $20 Exacta 8 with 1,3,6 $1.50 Trifecta 1,3,6,8 with 1,8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,9 $45 SAT 2/23 Gulfstream Park 11th OPTIONAL: $1 Trifecta 7,9 with 1,3,8 with 1,3,5-8 and $1 Trifecta 1,3,8 with 7,9 with 1,3,5-9 $30 $30 $20 Exacta 9 with 1,3,4 $5 Trifecta 9 with 1,2,4,6 with 3,10 $40 SAT 2/23 Santa Anita 8th OPTIONAL: $4 Trifecta 1,4 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,10 $48 SAT 2/23 Santa Anita 10th $10 Exacta Box 3,8,9 $2 Trifecta 3,8,9 with 3,8,9 with 1,2,4,7 SAVER: $1 Trifecta 3,8,9 with 1,2,4,7 with 3,8,9 OPTIONAL: $1 Superfecta 9 with 3,8 with 1,2,3,4,7,8 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10 $.20 Superfecta 3,8,9 with 1,2,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10 with 1,4 $48 $24 $36

12 Super Screener Suggested Late Pick 4 Wagering Options Guide Santa Anita Races 7-10 Late Pick 4 Suggested Wagers to Choose From (intention is not to bet all wagers shown) Amount Wager R9 Mineshaft R10 Fair Grounds H. R11 Rachel Alexandra R12 Risen Star Cost Coming Saturday AM