PLOD BOY BONUS PLAYS. March 2011

Transcription

1 Racing Flow Incorporated PLOD BOY BONUS PLAYS March 2011 March 31, 2011 OAKLAWN Race 9 7 Roma Jean (4-1): we'll close out an excellent month with this Triple vs Zip Upgrade. Roma Jean was posted here on March 11, a race in which she pressed a Zip +191 in her return to sprinting - that winner's BL12 was nearly 7. The route race two back was vs a Zip +101 on an important Closer Biased +167 track - that winners BL12 was more than 22, and the sprint three back was an impressive 'Quick to Zip' +246 effort on an Important Closer Biased +182 track - that winner's BL12 was 11. Today, she draws outside and is the controlling, dominant speed. Will be surprised if the ML odds hold up on this filly. 2nd at 8-1 Post proved to be a negative. No match for the winner. Her Racing Flow enhanced DRF Formulator PPs are posted below. -plod boy phil 3/31/2011 9:54am ET

2 Roma Jean March 30, 2011 No Upgrade today, but if you want a tip, scroll to the bottom of the Home page and hit 'Play'. I'll be back on Thursday. 3/29/ :12pm ET March 27, 2011 FAIR GROUNDS Race 7 2 Barbies M (12-1): debuted at a route of ground chasing a Plod -133 on a modestly Speed favoring surface in a race originally carded for the turf. That 'vs' effort has the look of a useful prep for a filly more than eligible to like the grass. Off the board at J J's Classic (5-1): we'll dismiss the last, an 'off the turf' event. Upgrade the effort two back when the wide pace setter of a Zip note that the top three finishes all closed from far back, with BL12s of 18, 13 and 22.

3 Off the board at 6-1 -plod boy phil 3/26/ :25pm ET March 26, 2011 OAKLAWN Race 11 9 Good Question (7/2): Upgrade the last, and first down at the level, when making a solid closing run on an Important Speed Biased -171 track behind a Speed favoring -91 Flow. That winner went wire to wire. Goes first time today for new connections in a paceless race, making the ML favorite 10 Trojan War the one to run down. $7.20 WINNER - he ran down the ML favorite $30.00 EXACTA - This exotic came back a bit short...no surprise with so many readers. Get the best quantitative Bias and Flow information available from the Plod Boys of Racing Flow. Go to the home page to subscribe now.

4 3/26/ :45am ET March 25, 2011 Back on Saturday. Best of racing luck today to Racing Flow subscribers. 3/25/2011 8:00am ET March 24, 2011 GULFSTREAM Race 3 12 Double Holiday (20-1): upgrade the race two back when chasing wide on an Important Speed Biased track. Last out, he was again on the wrong side of a modest speed bias and a -114 Flow. Faces nothing special here and is very interesting at even half the ML. Off the board at 25-1 Race 4

5 9 Violator (10-1): we'll dismiss the last miserable no show and focus on the very impressive vs Plod -165 Win with a BL12 of 10 in his maiden score two back. Gelding is capable of getting far back early, but can finish better than any of these and is a must play. Return of Paco adds to appeal. Off the board at 10-1 Race 6 8 Fly Magic (8-1): makes third lifetime start following two upgraded efforts. The debut was vs a Plod -167 while the latest was vs an Important Speed Bias and a Flow. Adds Blinkers today Outrun at plod boy phil 3/23/2011 9:35pm ET March 23, 2011 GULFSTREAM Race 3 1 Joltin' Joe (10-1): upgrade the last when pressing the pace on a Severely Closer Biased strip, two back, he was slightly against the grain of a modest speed bias and negative Flow, and the debut was on the wrong side of an Extreme Race that favored speed. Inside draw may limit options, but price is fair. $12.80 WINNER His PPs are below.

6 SANTA ANITA Race 2 2 Jack O' Lantern (3-1): returned of an extended layoff two back against the grain of a race flow that favored speed. Dropped to current level in latest, pressing between horses on a Severely Closer Biased surface. Tries the bottom again without Blinkers today. 3rd at 3-1 3/23/ :22pm ET Joltin' Joe March 20, 2011 AQUEDUCT Race 7 1 Show Trial (12-1): recorded essentially 'neutral' win in his last closing vs a modest -127 Flow on a track that was playing kind to speed. Impressed two back with a vs Plod -182 Win with a BL12 of 8.7! A little Flow will go a long way with this 4 yr old making his first start off the claim.

7 Off the board at 14-1 FAIR GROUNDS Race War Regent (7/2): set the Zip +145 last out in the slop - that winner's BL12 was Two back, was a Disqualified vs Zip +164 Winner - very impressive indeed. More than fair chance here to take them start to finish. Off the board at 3-1 Add 'pacesetter of a Zip on a Closer friendly surface' to his credentials OAKLAWN Race 8 5 Isabull (6-1): a 'TVP', or Triple vs Plod Upgrade. Was behind a w-w winner of a Plod on Jan 17 off a 10 week gap, chased a w-w winner of a Plod -116 on an important Speed Biased -165 track, and last out took a courageous, and essentially hidden run at the w-w winner of a Plod -128 on a Speed Biased -154 track. Hang on if they Zip. Scratched -plod boy phil 3/29/ :12pm ET

8 March 19, 2011 Check back tomorrow for a Sunday Upgrade. Also, Plod Boy Jake will be on TrackFacts LIVE tomorrow morning. Go to: 3/19/ :10pm ET March 17, 2011 I'll be back on Saturday. 3/17/2011 7:35am ET March 16, 2011 AQUEDUCT Race 4 8 Talk to Nick (8-1): put a line through his last when he made a 90 left turn out of the gate (as a bold type upgrade) dumping both jockey and backers' cash. Prior to, he'd set the pace vs a moderate +156 Bias and +56 flow, and had been a two length clear pace setter on a Severely Closer Biased track four back in November. Breaks from the wide post again, but just looks to fast to ignore at overlaid odds...hold on kid.

9 2nd at 3-1 Race 9 7 Shady Road (5-1): last was a very impressive 'vs Zip' +166 dueling effort on a surface that was favorable to closers. Readers may recall that a recent posting of upgraded cheaper stock returning on short rest was a miserable failure. That being said, a 'vs Zip Turn Back' is a 'vs Zip Turn Back' and she does sprint for the first time with blinkers on. Dream trip? $16.80 WINNER By the length of the stretch GULFSTREAM Race 5 5 Fisherman's Wharf (10-1): I'll stick with the theme of the day, the 'vs Zip Turn Back', by looking closer at this gelding. Connections added Blinkers in his last, an 8.5f pacesetting effort vs a Zip that winner's BL12 was more than 25! Two back, this one closed well enough despite a -129 Flow. Willing to bet that the blinkers were added with this race in mind. $16.60 WINNER Race 7 4 Gothics Peak (4-1): debuted on the turf last out chasing a wire to wire winner behind a Plod not an easy task. Regular readers know we hold the upgraded turf debut in high regard when making the next start on grass. Note that two back, he set a pressured pace, despite breaking slowly, on a dirt course that was Closer favoring. Takes the Blinkers-Off sporting two notable works since the

10 upgraded race. $6.40 WINNER 3/15/ :23pm ET March 13, 2011 FAIR GROUNDS Race 5 5 Elle Atlantic (7/2): upgrade the last, a 'Quick to Zip' +141 effort. Nicely bred filly was too close and moved too soon to the lead, only to be passed by three deep closers. 2nd at 5/2 6 Destiny's Gold (4-1): impressed in her last when closing well despite being very wide behind a modestly Speed favoring -92 Flow on an important Speed Biased -160 track. 3 rd at 6/5 3/13/ :10am

11 March 12, 2011 GULFSTREAM Race 11 8 Fly Bye Wildcat (8-1): comes in off three straight vz Zip upgrades - was 'Quick to Zip' +181 three back, pressed a Zip +169 two back, and last out was the overly aggressive pace setter of a +116 Flow. Removes the blinkers today. Off the board at 5-1 Expected him to come off the pace today, but not from that far back. 3/12/ :25am ET March 11, 2011 OAKLAWN Race 8 5 Roma Jean (8-1): Upgrade the last when the pace setter at 8f of a +101 Flow (closer favoring) on a Closer Biased +169 track - that winner's BL12 was more than 20! Two back, also a stakes race, she pressed a Zip +248! on a Severely Closer Biased +200! track - that winner's BL12 was 11. Note that the next out winner from the Jan 15th race was a 'Quick to Zip' upgrade. Speedy filly turns back today primed for strong effort. Off the board at 10-1 Still interested in this one.

12 3/11/ :50pm ET March 10, 2011 Check back tomorrow for a Friday Upgrade. 3/10/2011 2:45pm ET March 7, I'll be in Scottsdale, AZ completing our new mandatory 'MLB Spring Training Week' for burnt out Plod Boys from Monday the 7th thru at least Tuesday the 15th. While a Flow free week on this page is possible, be sure to do your due diligence, as one never knows when we'll blow up the board. -plod boy phil 3/6/2011 9:03pm ET March 6, 2011 SANTA ANITA

13 Race 6 10 Hard to Resist (12-1): upgrade the last when pressing the pace on a +170 Closers Bias and a closer friendly +90 flow - that winners' BL 12 was 4.5. Tries turf today and is worth a play at near the ML. $12.80 WINNER 13 Beautiful Sunday (8-1): was on the wrong side of the Bias and Flow in her first two races. Last was slightest of upgrades. Switch to the turf could help her put it all together despite difficult post. Completed $98.80 Exacta I am happy to report that roughly 62% of the regular hits on this page did check in during the 4+ hrs between posting and post time. Anyone making the $2 exacta box cashed for the cost of a two month Full Service Subscription. During that 8 wk period, you'd receive 8 Weekly Updates of all Racing Flow Flow and Bias figs, 8 wks of the '60 Day Extreme Race Report', and 24 editions of the Upgrades & Downgrades Report (each Friday - Sunday). 3/6/2011 2:05pm ET March 5, 2011 FAIR GROUNDS Race 6

14 5 Chrome Cruiser (7/2): Upgrade the vs Closer Bias +184 track last out when too close and making early bid to the top - that winner's BL12 was Turns back to 6f Races cancelled SANTA ANITA Race 7 8 Fandino (9/2): upgrade the last, a vs Zip +190 pressured pace setting effort. May be best served resorting to the downhill tactics employed in March of Class drop proves kind. Off the board at 10-1 Dead on the board...never close to the top despite the slowest half mile down the hill in a long time. Won next out at $9.00 as an Upgrade on the Upgrades & Downgraded Report. pbp 3/5/2011 1:30pm ET March 4, 2011 GULFSTREAM Race 8

15 6 Prizes Galore (6-1): upgrade her last, an impressive vs Plod -215 closing effort. Also receives modest upgrade for the race two back when clearly too far behind a modestly speed favoring bias and flow. Like the fact that she has no downgraded turf races on the paper...more than capable with fair set up. Off the board at 5/2 FAIR GROUNDS Race 5 2 August High (10-1): a 'vs Zip Turn Back' today...sounds familiar, yes? Was too close to a Zip +180 on an Important Closer Biased surface last out. That is 'Extreme'. Lightly race filly was also too close to a Zip +135 in her debut - that race winner's BL12 was a robust 22. Off the board at 7-1 HAWTHORNE Race 6 2 Raspberry Jam (15-1): made first start at this level in latest, an otherwise non-descript vs Plod wait a minute, there's no such thing as a nondescript vs Plod -182 Upgrade. See the Upgrade, Bet the Upgrade. $9.20 WINNER OAKLAWN

16 Race 3 6 Daareb (8-1): 7 yr old was claimed out of his last, an Upgraded vs Bias -164 wide try behind a Speed favoring -99 Flow. 2nd at 9-1 TURFWAY Race 10 4 Sunburst (9/2): closed wide to win from 7th vs a Plod -259 on a track that was playing more than kind to speed (-135). Came into that win off a vs Plod -129 upgrade following a nine month freshening. Legit repeat candidate in my book. 3rd at 5/2 8 Lord & T (7/2): was wide on an Important Speed Biased surface last out, three back won in solid fashion when bidding 3w off a -177 Flow. I'm pretty sure there are worse places to put your money than on this one, especially if they Zip. 4th at 9-1 3/3/ :58pm ET March 3, 2011

17 GULFSTREAM Race 3 6 Otamai (8-1): last two have been 'Speed Upgrades', vs Zips of +103 and +243, at a distance of ground on the turf - note that the winners of his last two races had BL12s of 19 and 24! Turns back to 7.5f and makes the surface switch to the main track today. Regular readers of this page over the last two years know that the Plod Boys are fans of the 'vs Zip Turn Back'. The last time this girl was on the GP dirt, March 28, 2010, she set the pace of a Zip +144 against better horses. $16.00 WINNER * Thank you 'JQ Public' for the bandwagon ride aboard the 'unbeatable' #1 at 2/5. Well done. * Thank you jockey Carlos Marquez, Jr...Jr., for 'handy' rocking chair ride aboard this monster. SANTA ANITA Race 1 7 Jax El (5/2): was the pace setter of a Zip +203 last out at 8f on the turf. Two back, won on this downhill course as the clear leader in a +90 Flow...while that effort alone may not have been upgraded, it adds to overall appeal. Off the board at 4/5 May have set a one horse Zip. Bet chalk, lose money.

18 Race 5 7 Rule the Storm (7/2): drops following the Upgraded 'vs Zip' +142 pace setting effort in a $43K Stake race. The return race two back off a two month gap was no disgrace when leading better in an event that was won by a midpack closer. 2nd at 8/5 pbp 3/2/2011 9:40pm ET The Racing Flow Extreme Race Report tabs $14.20 Winner in Wednesday's 2nd at Gulfstream Subcribers and recent first time inquirers likely landed upon #2 Sweet Enticement, who was off slowly most recently behind the Speed Biased day of Jan 28th and a Flow figure, that if standing alone, would have dictated a wager by itself. His DRF Formulator PPs, enhanced with easily uploaded Racing Flow figs, are posted below...see the Upgrade, bet the Upgrade. Formulator is the best handicapping tool on the market for any handicapper that keeps race or trip notes. If you are working off the 'Extremes' PDF file, you need only to look up a race and determine if the horse in question's running line was aided or hindered by the Bias and Flow. Answer Hindered: Make a bet.

19 GP Race 2: March 2, 2011 March 2, 2011 AQUEDUCT Race 1 2 Empire Express (3-1): receives a very modest second look for the last, his first try down at the level, on a day when the track was kind to speed. Two back, he receives a strong 'vs Pod' -154 Upgrade against better when hopelessly chasing a winner with a BL12 of just 1. Paper and blood says he gets 10 furlongs better than the rest. 2nd at 3-1 A nose not good enough with the easier trip. 5 Stopbluffing (5/2): had been on the wrong side of the Flow in five straight prior to the last out 'neutral' win when lapped on the leader in a slightly speed happy Flow. Some chance to take them all the way. Gander at the Daily Double 'will pays' before investing. $5.70 Winner $20.80 EXACTA Race 2

20 2 Tribeca (2-1): upgrade the impossible task against better last out when chasing a Plod The return race two back, off an eight week freshening, was modestly against the grain of a dirt surface and Flow that combined to be kind to Speed. $6.00 WINNER $17.80 Daily Double: If you did as advised and took a moment before the 1st race to checked the DD 'will pays', you merely had to decide if the potential for a $13.80 profit on a $4 bet was worthwhile. If you said yes, then you cashed. GULFSTREAM Race 6 8 All Drama (6-1): Upgrade the last for finishing deceptively well despite the well documented Speed Bias of Feb 10. Recall that the winner of GP's 5th last Thursday was the lone wide upgrade in the race. Generally speaking, Speed Bias and Inside Bias are one in the same. Replay watchers will note that 'Drama' finishes pretty well considering the task at hand. Note that all three of her wins were either Bias or Flow aided. Granted, the PPs do not indicate the likelyhood of the needed 'Zip', but this is horse racing. The ML price warrants an investment. Off the board at 4-1. Looks like this one is now a back to back 'vs' Upgrade next out having chased while hopelessly wide. Check Flow figs on Tuesday to confirm. Won the next time out on February 13 th, paying $25.20!

21 HAWTHORNE Race 3 3 Zimany (4-1): upgrade the wide run in the last behind a Plod -147 and a winner that was just a head off the pace. Gelding was worthy of a modest upgrade heading into his MC win on this course. Off the board at 5/2 Yikes, that was simply awful. -plod boy phil 3/1/ :50pm ET From the 'You can lead 'em to water' file Interested handicappers hopefully made a note regarding the Racing Flow interpretation of the Gulfstream dirt track on January 28th. For a reminder, the PBBPs for February, in all their disappointment, are posted below. As stated before, whether a PBBP wins or losers is important, but regardless, each horse provides valuable information regarding a race date or a particular race. For a refresher on Jan 28th, read postings from Feb 17th and Feb 18th. Like deja' vu all over again, see the 'A Winner and a Loser' posted below regarding the potential for 2nd timer starters that received a 'vs Plod' or 'vs Bias' upgrade to

22 make a significant forward move, typically at big odds. Doesn't #13 Ju Ju Bling ($56.20) look familiar? The $1 DD P/W in Race 2 of: 2 / 1, 2, 13, returned $ /2/2011 8:010pm ET GP Race 3: March 2, 2011 A WINNER and a LOSER Posted below are two examples of runners that received a 'vs Plod' upgrade in their racing debut. For new visitors, a 'Plod' is an event in which the race shape, or Flow, favored Speed horses. The first, See Tobe, returned $33.40 to win when stretching out and dropping into MC company. The second, Clear March (3rd), was as green as grass. Regular readers of this page and holders of any recent edition of the Racing Flow Extremes Race Report will recall similar paper for Introvert ($56.60), who won 2nd time out as a bold type Upgrade from the last race at GP on January 17.

23 3/1/2011 8:35pm ET GP R6: Feb. 24, 2011 FG R9: Feb. 28, 2011 Racing Flow Extreme Race Report produces a $497 exacta Monday at the Fair Grounds Two horses in today's 6th race at the Fair Grounds exited the Closer's 'Extreme Race' from Feb. 7th. Both Redredred and Vibrant Saint took different tactics today, rating off what looks to have been a Zip, providing Flow players with another scoring opportunity. Get all Racing Flow Data, the Extreme Race Report and every Upgrades & Downgrades Report offered for just $50/mo. Just go the Home Page to susbcribe.

24 The Uprgades & Downgrades Reports from Gulfstream on Saturday and Sunday are posted below. Since I posted Friday's big day, it's only fair to show the other two. GP U/D Report: Feb. 26, 2011 GP U/D Report: Feb 27, 2011 The Racing Flow Extreme Race Report produces $60 winner at Gulfstream The winner of the 10th race at GP on Friday, Tribal Bead ($60.00), exited an 'Extreme Race' Today's hero's last was vs the grain of a Severely Closer Biased surface and a Closer favoring Flow. Over the last two weeks, a total of eight U/D Reports, Racing Flow subscribers have received a $111 winner and the $542 exacta, a $33 winner and the $321 exacta, a $192 exacta, today's $60 winner, as well as a number of other double digit winners. All of these winners have been at Gulfstream Park, horse racing's premiere winter meeting. How does your ROI compare? Go to the Home Page to subscribe now.

25 The entire Upgrades & Downgrades Report for Gulfstream is posted below. 02/25/2011 6:52pm ET GP 'UDR': February 25, 2011 The Racing Flow Extreme Race Report continues to produce large mutuels for our subscribers. While Monday's posted runner, Bluegrass Bull, failed in the 7th, the Southwest Stakes winner, Archarcharch ($31), was also part of the same pressured Zip +283! in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Congrats to long time Plod Boy favorite Slambino ($33.60), who won the 9th race at Gulfstream on Sunday as a Racing Flow upgrade. The Upgrades & Downgrades Report had three upgraded runners in the race, including the runner-up Livingston Street, who completed a $321 exacta. The February 'freebies' on the this page continue to struggle, but each, win or lose, provides valuable information to readers of this page. Like they say, you can lead them to water... -plod boy phil 02/23/ :05pm ET

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