SATURDAY 2016 EASY GOER STAKES MATT CAROTHERS 1 ST CUPID 2 ND RACE ME HOME 3 RD ECONOMIC MODEL PLAYBOOK BELMONT STAKES

Transcription

1 2016 EASY GOER STAKES MATT CAROTHERS 1 ST CUPID 2 ND RACE ME HOME 3 RD ECONOMIC MODEL Easy Goer was, is, and always will be one of the greatest horses to ever compete at Belmont Park. Eight of his fourteen lifetime wins occurred over Big Sandy, where he went 8-for-10. His biggest score was clearly his emphatic 8-length romp over Sunday Silence in the 89 Belmont Stakes, denying him the Triple Crown. Easy Goer s final time of 2:26 is still the second-fastest final time in a race that is about to be run for the 148th time. None of the five 3-year-olds competing in his namesake race are close to Easy Goer in terms of talent, but you do have a few in here that are lightly raced with plenty of upside. Cupid is the horse to catch, and also the horse to beat. His wire-to-wire win in the Rebel at Oaklawn was very impressive from a numbers and visual standpoint. The score also came in just the fourth start of his career, and immediately thrust him into most Derby conversations. After the Rebel win, he went off at 4/5 in the Arkansas Derby, where he proceeded to get caught up in a ridiculous speed duel and finished a distant 10th. If being part of a crazy pace wasn t enough of an excuse, it was discovered days after the race that he had been suffering from breathing problems, which resulted in subsequent throat surgery. A healthy Cupid should dominate things on the front end in this non-graded stakes. After picking chalk I will go with a bit of a price to finish second. Race Me Home really stepped up on the stretchout in career start number three, breaking his maiden at He showed plenty of gameness in nailing the runner-up on the wire, in a race that appears to be somewhat key. The race s third place finisher was a nice maiden winner at Churchill in his next start, and Forever d Oro, who ran fifth, not only was a next-out maiden winner at Belmont, but will be competing in Saturday s Belmont Stakes for Dallas Stewart.

2 2016 ACORN STAKES SCOTT HAZELTON 1 ST CATHRYN SOPHIA 2 ND CARINA MIA 3 RD GO MAGGIE GO Sometimes there are races on huge days that are going to be extremely formful. Think the Kentucky Derby this year, the Breeders Cup Classic last year, and the Acorn on Saturday. Very few, myself not included, felt that Cathryn Sophia was going to be at her best two turning in the Oaks after her flop at Keeneland. Well, most were wrong. The one thing we know is that, not only was she great in Kentucky, she can be great one-turning, as she ll be asked to do at Belmont. Here s to hoping most of us are right this time. Carina Mia proved to be an absolute force in the Eight Belles Stakes at Churchill. She has proven that one-turning is part of her repertoire. She has as much chance to win this as any, but I don t think she has the class as the filly above, especially after how much the next sophomore flattered the Oaks champ in her Pimlico display. Go Maggie Go is lightly-raced in her career, yet heavily-raced for a sophomore filly over this fiveweek stretch. She easily handled Land Over Sea in the Black Eyed Susan, who completely bounced. However, the two fillies above absolutely make her look third best in this event that has very little depth beneath her.

3 2016 BROOKLYN STAKES RICH PERLOFF 1 ST SHAMAN GHOST 2 ND TURCO BRAVO 3 RD KID CRUZ The theme of this year s running of the Brooklyn S. (G2) is blinkers off, as two of the top contenders have clearly benefitted from the removal of the hood. Shama Ghost looked entirely ordinary in the first three starts of his career, all with blinkers. His connections tried him on dirt, turf, and synthetic, in an attempt to unlock his potential. Then, they tried him without blinkers, and, four months later, he was a Queen s Plate winner. His seasonal debut at Belmont on May 21 wasn t bad, and now James Jerkens (subbing in for Brian Lynch) reaches out to Joel Rosario. Turco Bravo is another horse that has benefitted from the removal of blinkers. Gary Contessa added blinkers to this gelding s equipment prior to the race on December 13th, 2014; in 12 starts with the hood, he only managed one win. Since taking the blinkers back off, Turco Bravo has two stakes wins, and two thirds. He comes off a win in the Flat Out on May 15 at 1 3/8 miles, so the 12 furlongs of the Brooklyn shouldn t be an impediment. Javier Castellano rides him back, which is always a plus. Kid Cruz is a legitimate threat for the win. All three of his prior starts at Belmont have been in one-turn races, but he has demonstrated a fondness for the layout (3: 2-1-0), and four of his seven career victories have been around two turns. It s worth noting that he handled Turco Bravo pretty handily in the Excelsior S. at Aqueduct on April 9th going 1 1/4 miles.

4 2016 OGDEN PHIPPS STAKES DAVE WEAVER 1 ST CAVORTING 2 ND CURALINA 3 RD STOPCHARGINGMARIA Cavorting ran out of her skin last time, drawing away to win the Ruffian Stakes in an eye-catching final half-mile. She has never been better, is nearly unbeatable at Belmont Park (only loss here came at age 2 after a bad start) and she should have a fast tempo to chase. Curalina never runs a bad race (she s finished in the money in all nine of her career starts), and she looked sensational in her 4-yearold debut, winning the La Troiene by a whopping seven lengths. She appears to be the obvious favorite in the field for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. Stopchargingmaria, winner of the Breeders Cup Distaff just two starts back, is the leading money earner in the field with nearly $3 million. However, the one-turn distance might not be her preference and she s never won at Belmont Park. For those reasons I won t include her in my top two wagering positions.

5 2016 JAIPUR INVITATIONAL BRITNEY EURTON 1 ST COMMUTE 2 ND GUNS LOADED 3 RD MOSLER The Jaipur Invitational was named after Jaipur, the champion 3-yearold colt of 1962 who ran one of the most memorable Travers Stakes on record. He won by a fraction of a nose in a track-record time over Ridan. Prior to his thrilling victory in the Travers, he was victorious in the Belmont Stakes - it is only fitting that there s a race named after him on Belmont Stakes Day. With fourteen horses, you know this race comes down to getting a good trip. If you are playing the Pick Six, you will need to go deep, but Commute looks to be on the up and up. His speed figures are gradually moving in the right direction, he can be tactical enough to get good positioning from that outside post, and he has some highpercentage connections in Mark Casse and Johnny V. Many horses in this race are coming off of peak performances (which could result in a bounce), lackluster performances, or troubled trips. What I like about Commute is that he doesn t fit into any of those categories. His win in the allowance event last out was superb, but not such a peak performance that I expect him to bounce. He s trending upward, and I see that trend continuing with a trip just off the pacesetters come Saturday. Guns Loaded had a horrendous trip last out, much in part to his poor break. This gelding likes to be sitting just off the pace, and he found himself 7 1/2 lengths off the pace at first call - not an ideal scenario when you re only going five furlongs. He finds himself in a tough outside post again today, but he does have an extra furlong to work with. The Doug O Neill camp may not have their champion Nyquist in the Belmont Stakes, but by the looks of it they could have a very nice Saturday in Elmont, NY. Mosler became a very interesting horse to me after watching the replay of the Elusive Quality. I was toying between Mosler and A Lot for my third pick, but what separated the two for me was the fast pace A Lot was able to run into and the possibility of a bounce next out. I would absolutely use A Lot in my Pick Six, but for the purposes of my top three selections, I m giving Mosler the edge. What impressed me most about Mosler was his ability to press fast fractions in the Elusive Quality and stick it out to finish third only beaten three lengths. On top of that, he was coming off of a seven-month layoff! If I know anything about Hall of Famer Bill Mott, he may have his horses ready to run off the bench, but they re even better second off the layoff.

6 2016 WOODY STEPHENS STAKES CHRISTINA BLACKER 1 ST SHARP AZTECA 2 ND DIG DEEP 3 RD IMPERIAL HINT We have a full field for the Woody Stephens this year and several sharp horses with the ability to win this race. The longer I look at it, the more difficult I think it will be to defeat Sharp Azteca. He is my top selection in here and just too good if he brings his A game. Sharp Azteca was able to set blazing fractions last time out and kept going despite that early duel. I think he ll have company up front on Saturday with both Justin Squared and Awesome Gent, but he has proven that he is the speed of the speed and has the class to pull clear after a contested early pace. My second selection will be Dig Deep. Although he has finished in the exacta in all four career starts, it looks as if he has developed in to a graded stakes-caliber performer in his last two races. He has proven that he possesses enough speed to keep up with the pacesetters, but does his best running when sitting just off the leaders. I think he will sit a great trip juts behind the aforementioned speed horses and will be right there to pounce as they turn for home if any of the speed backs up. Keep in mind that his last race at Charles Town was a two-turn race at seven furlongs, so his early speed might have been dulled a bit by that race. My third horse will be Imperial Hint. I loved him in the Pat Day Mile, and unfortunately, he just couldn t keep up with Sharp Azteca and faded after the fast opening half mile of 44 flat. The Carvajal barn has decided to switch to Paco Lopez for the Woody Stephens, and he draws well outside of all the other speed. I think they may try to get him to relax a little as they take on Sharp Azteca for the second time. His recent works at Monmouth are a little slower than what we saw going in to the Pat Day Mile, which seems to indicate that they are trying to slow him down overall lately. He also has the ability to be a graded stakes winner, he just needs the right trip.

7 2016 JUST A GAME STAKES KURT HOOVER 1 ST CELESTINE 2 ND LADY LARA 3 RD STRIKE CHARMER A very competitive field of thirteen fillies and mares has been assembled for this year s Just A Game. Let s try for a Bill Mott exacta. Celestine comes off a dominating win in the Honey Fox. She has a versatile running style, loves the Belmont turf course, and this may be her best distance. Lady Lara ran a dull race as the favorite in the Honey Fox. However, she ran a solid second behind the division s queen (Tepin) two back. Meanwhile, Strike Charmer comes off a powerful win in the Beaugay over this course.

8 2016 MET MILE PAUL LO DUCA 1 ST STANFORD 2 ND BLOWFELD 3 RD DONWORTH Stanford has turned out to be the horse that Todd Pletcher thought he was. Despite a ton of promise as a 3-year-old, setbacks meant he did not run in the Derby. The son of Malibu Moon is fresh, and I think turns the tables on his stablemate, Blofeld, who narrowly beat him in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Blofeld is just a better one-turn horse than a two-turn horse, plain and simple. He has great tactical speed. Even though he s drawn inside, he s tough as nails, and as a Grade 2 winner running in his own backyard, he s tough to ignore. Donworth did not have the best of trips in the Charles Town Classic when beaten by Stanford. Nyquist is not here, but Doug O Neill might have a say on Saturday. He s been running longer distances, and I think the cut back could be huge. He did win his debut at seven furlongs!

9 2016 MANHATTAN STAKES MIKE JOYCE 1 ST BIG BLUE KITTEN 2 ND DIVISIDERO 3 RD FLINTSHIRE Stop me if you feel like you ve hear this cliché, but I ve seen this movie before. Right down the title sponsor of Woodford Reserve, the Manhattan might as well be called the Turf Classic Imitational. All the stars from Churchill have resurfaced here today with one notable addition: International superhorse Flintshire. We may have to concede that Flintshire is the horse to beat, and by all means, he could just gallop past the top three finishers from the Turf Classic for a layup score. He s taken to New York in the past as evidenced by his Grade 1 victory in the Sword Dancer at the Spa last summer. He s made $7,000,000 that past 2 years while only winning twice and makes regular trips to Hong Kong, France and the U.S. as if he were shipping from New Jersey to Delaware. Try to beat him at your own peril. Now for my own peril: While I mentioned the top three finishers could get scorched by Flintshire, I ll refrain from making the same comments about the fifth place finisher. Big Blue Kitten is clearly the second-best horse in this field, and if I get anywhere near 6-1, there is a win bet in my future. The race in Louisville was his first start of the year, he s back at Belmont where he s had a ton of success, and if he fires his best shot, he s almost as talented as Flintshire. This just in: Divisidero won the Woodford Reserve. True! You wouldn t know it due this industry s penchant for not giving enough credit to horses that actually win races, but yeah, he won! He didn t show a tremendous turn of foot, but he just kept staying on. I liked his effort. I in no way think he s better than Flintshire or Big Blue Kitten but he s better than people think and Prado will have to devise a way to get another nice trip like he did last time. With regard to Flintshire, see above. I can t leave him out completely, not with the Manhattan being involved in two separate Pick Fours and the Pick Six.

10 2016 TODD SCHRUPP 1 ST STRADIVARI 2 ND EXAGGERATOR 3 RD GOVERNOR MALIBU The 2016 Belmont is the most recent example of how participation in the Triple Crown has dramatically changed in this era. Out of the field of 20 from the Kentucky Derby, only two will have run in all three races. However, five entrants in this year s Belmont will have run in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and waited for the Belmont. Clearly you only run in all three races if you feel obligated to (Exaggerator) or are really ambitious (Lani). Not having to go through the rigors of two prior races in the weeks before the testing mile and a half of the Belmont is clearly an advantage. Another distinct advantage in the Belmont, proven year after year, is tactical speed. If there was ever a race made for the proverbial first jump this is it. Stradivari s outside draw in the Preakness proved to be problematic. His post position in this race is perfect. Gettysburg is right next to him and will absolutely be sent to help out his stablemate Creator, much like he did in the Arkansas Derby. This will allow Stradivari to get a tracking trip and the first jump turning for home. In the Preakness, Exaggerator got a dream trip, and for him, an ideal wet racetrack. The forecast as of right now indicates he won t get an off track, and as for the trip, he shouldn t get a favorable pace scenario. He s too consistent not to use, but he s very vulnerable in here as the favorite. Governor Malibu was second in the Peter Pan last out to a very promising winner. A tractable running style combined with form that looks typical of an improving 3-year-old make him look like a real upset possibility.