APRIL 1, 2017 GULFSTREAM PARK

Transcription

1 APRIL 1, 2017 GULFSTREAM PARK California Chrome and Jockey Victor Espinoza win the 2014 Preakness Stakes National Gambling Support Line XPRESS ( )

2 LIMITED TIME CHOOSE YOUR SIGN UP BONUS $500 SIGN UP BONUS Promo Code: TC2017 $20 FREE BET Promo Code: TCFREE20 XPERIENCE THE BEST IN ONLINE WAGERING MORE DEPOSIT OPTIONS, NOW INCLUDING PAYPAL FREE HD VIDEO FREE PAST PERFORMANCES OVER 300 TRACKS TO CHOOSE FROM XB REWARDS LOYALTY PROGRAM Conditions Apply. Visit Xpressbet.com/Bet-the-Florida-Derby to learn more XPRESS ( ) Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line

3 Appleton Stakes $200,000 - Grade 3 Post Time: 1:24 PM ET 4YO+ 1 Mile Turf Youth vs Experience Johnny D, Xpressbet.com Analysis: The 2017 renewal of the Appleton has attracted a compact field of just seven runners. Nevertheless, the race appears to feature one of the most perplexing conundrums facing horseplayers on nearly a daily basis. Should the player back an aging, classy veteran from a winning barn enjoying a significant dip in class, or a young upstart, improving with each race and full of promise and potential? This question never has a simple answer. However, best results more often are attained when one leans towards the younger option. Even though Youth is wasted on the young, much money is wasted on the old. Main Contenders: ALL INCLUDED has banked nearly $400,000 from four wins in 16 starts and has won half of his six starts at the one-mile distance of the Appleton. He hails from the barn of Hall-of-Fame resident and meet-leading conditioner, Todd Pletcher. The nation s top jockey, Javier Castellano, will ride. Last out, ALL INCLUDED finished third (promoted to second via DQ) in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. He was beaten a mere length. So, what s not to like? Thanks for asking. First, he s a six-year-old that s 0-for-6 over the Gulfstream turf course. Second, even though he s been facing better than he ll meet in here, he hasn t won a race since July of 2015! On the other hand, DELTA PRINCE is a four-year-old colt who has made just four starts with two wins, but both came at this distance over this turf course. Jimmy Jerkens is the trainer and his horses are winning at a gaudy 28% clip during the meet! Value Plays: It s sometimes difficult to find an intriguing Value Play in a seven-horse field. This is one of those times. OUR WAY, who races for trainer James Bond (27% at the current meet), has won 4-of-11 starts and earned nearly $225k. He s 2-for-3 on Gulfstream turf and 3-of-6 at the distance. SIDING SPRING was cut out to be a good one and finally has hit his best stride with two consecutive wins on his resume. $6 Trifecta Key: DELTA PRINCE with ALL INCLUDED, SIDING SPRING, OUR WAY ($36) $10 Exacta: ALL INCLUDED with DELTA PRINCE ($10) $4 Exacta: SIDING SPRING with DELTA PRINCE ($4) Last 5 Appleton Winners: 2016 Reporting Star L. Saez 2015 War Correspondent J. Velazquez 2014 Hey Leroy A. Solis 2013 Za Approval J. Lezcano 2012 Corporate Jungle J. Castellano Profile of a Appleton Winner: (Since 1991) Average Odds /1 Winning Favorites (42.3%) Average Win Margin Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (3rd Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Wire-to-Wire Winners... 4 (15.4%) Favorites are Rolling: Favorites have won seven of the last ten editions of the Appleton. Additionally, the public s pick has not finished outside of the Trifecta in that span. It s Always a Nail-Biter: No edition of the Appleton has been decided by more than a length since Millennium Dragon won the race by 1 ¼-lengths in Is Another Streak Coming? We ve established that favorites have been on a roll in the last 10 years. However, between 1999 and 2006, the average Win odds of the Appleton winner were nearly 15/1. The longest-priced winner in that span was Associate, who scored at 36/1 in Johnny D s 1. DELTA PRINCE 2. ALL INCLUDED 3. SIDING SPRING 4. OUR WAY

4 Orchid Stakes $200,000 - Grade 3 Post Time: 1:53 PM ET 4YO+ Fillies & Mares 1 3/8 Miles Turf Olorda Ready to Bloom Aaron Vercruysse, XBTV.com Analysis: Over the last 20 years, trainers Christophe Clement (7 wins) and Todd Pletcher (5 Wins, including last year with Photo Call) have dominated this turf marathon. So it s pretty odd to find neither with a starter on Saturday. At first glance, the obvious next option would be that man with the last name BROWN to get us in the black. Chad has been a top trainer at every venue on the East Coast, wins at a remarkably high percentage and sends out the likely Orchid favorite, OLORDA. It will take all I have to find a reason to beat her, but you know me I m going to try to find an alternative. Main Contenders: The way I see it, there is only one (singular) main contender in this field. Then there is everyone else. If you re a class handicapper, OLORDA is a standout. Not only is she the lone graded stakes winner in this field, but she has a trifecta of Grade 3 wins on her resume, including one in France at Longchamp and one each in Kentucky and Florida, with her local win coming in last year s Very One Stakes on this very course. She ran into trouble in her seasonal debut on March 4, but I m willing to forgive that. It was her first start since April and it is a huge positive that, for the first time since coming to the States, she races twice in a row without a layoff line. That means she is most likely no worse for wear. The bummer is her price. Value Plays: Let s find some value in this compact field with the thinking being if anyone upsets OLORDA, it will be because she went too fast early on and was pushed out of her comfort zone. TEMPLE FUR came from an impossible post last time to score an upset against lesser. SUMMERSAULT is looking for her third win in a row with that last score coming with a career top number. And then there s MAQUETTE, who looks outclassed based on a pair of Group 3 tries last summer in France and also may be up against it from a style standpoint. She has some X-Factor appeal, however, because she may be bigger and better this time around and she does get Lasix for the first time. $5 Exacta Box: OLORDA, TEMPLE FUR and SUMMERSAULT ($30) $5 Trifecta Key: OLORDA with TEMPLE FUR and SUMMERSAULT ($10) $10 Exacta: MAQUETTE with OLORDA ($10) Last 5 Orchid Winners: 2016 Photo Call (IRE) J. Castellano 2015 Beauty Parlor J. Velazquez 2014 Anjaz R. Maragh 2013 Regalo Mia L. Contreras 2012 Hit It Rich J. Castellano Profile of an Orchid Winner (Since 1991) Average Odds /1 Winning Favorites... 8 (30.7%) Average Win Margin Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (3rd Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (4th Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Wire-to-Wire Winners... 6 (23.1%) Money s on Johnny V: Top jock, John Velazquez, has five wins from 15 career starts in the Orchid, with three seconds and two thirds on his resume. His ROI in the race is a robust $3.85. The Todd & Christophe Show: Since 1994, Todd Pletcher and Christophe Clement have won the Orchid a combined 12 times. In that span, Christophe has a $2.35 ROI in the race, while Todd s is $2.60. Aaron s 1. OLORDA (GER) 2. TEMPLE FUR 3. SUMMERSAULT 4. MAQUETTE

5 Sir Shackleton Stakes $100,000 Post Time: 2:53 PM ET 4YO+ 7 Furlongs Dropping the Hammer Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com Analysis: This year s edition of the Sir Shackleton Stakes doesn t appear to be light on speed. Confirmed frontrunners BLUEGRASS SINGER, MR. JORDAN and SEVENTH SENSE love to duke it out on the lead, and I also expect GRAND BILI to be forwardly placed from his rail post position. If they all go and I expect some combination of that quartet will this race should fall right into the lap of THE TRUTH OR ELSE, HAMMERS VISION or FIRE MISSION, all of whom prefer to do their running from a bit further back in the pack. I think HAMMERS VISION is a best bet today here s why. Main Contenders: HAMMERS VISION seems to be a Jack of all trades type of horse, having raced reasonably well on both turf and dirt at a number of tracks in New York, Florida and Ontario. What do I like most about him? I think this distance hits him right between the eyes. In races run at seven-furlongs or less, HAMMERS VISION has three wins and two seconds from seven starts, whereas he s 0-for-6 with just one second in races run at a mile or beyond. Big difference. Couple that with a favorable pace setup and Joel Rosario picking up the mount and I m all in. I d be remiss if I didn t give due credit to BLUEGRASS SINGER, who just ran great in an allowance race on March 15, and FIRE MISSION, who goes second off the claim for high-percentage trainer, Jorge Navarro. He drew well and won a stakes race last out. Value Plays: With no heavy favorite, there seems to be value at just about every turn. My pick, HAMMERS VISION, should offer value. FIRE MISSION should too. The same goes for FRENCH QUARTER, who steps up in class after being claimed and has won two straight. New trainer David Fawkes has inherited a horse that is in great form and this aggressive spot indicates he likes what he sees from him. $20 Win: HAMMERS VISION ($20) $3 Exacta Box: HAMMERS VISION, FRENCH QUARTER and FIRE MISSION ($18) $2 Exacta Box: HAMMERS VISION, BLUEGRASS SINGER and FIRE MISSION ($12) Last 5 Sir Shackleton Winners: 2016 Grande Shores E. Zayas 2015 Pants On Fire P. Lopez 2014 Happy My Way J. Bravo 2013 Travelin Man R. Napravnik 2012 Travelin Man J. Velazquez Profile of a Sir Shackleton Winner (Since 2010) Average Odds /1 Winning Favorites... 3 (42.9%) Average Win Margin Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Wire-to-Wire Winners... 1 (14.3%) Sir Who? The race is named for millionaire Sir Shackleton, who raced between 2004 and 2006 for owner/breeder, Tracy Farmer, and trainer, Nick Zito. He won three races at Gulfstream Park, including the Grade 2 Richter Scale Handicap in That race has since been renamed the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes. Form Holds: In eight editions of the Sir Shackleton, the longest-priced winner of the race was Grande Shores, who paid $9.40. Just three horses that started at odds of 10/1 or higher have finished in the Trifecta. Dustin s 1. HAMMERS VISION 2. FIRE MISSION 3. FRENCH QUARTER 4. BLUEGRASS SINGER

6 Sanibel Island Stakes $100,000 Post Time: 3:23 PM ET 3YO Fillies 1 Mile Turf Scheme-ing for a Score Stanton Salter, Maryland Horse Radio Analysis: This one-mile turf contest attracted a solid group of three-year-old fillies. The likely favorite is Graham Motion s HAPPY MESA, who just finished fourth against Grade 3 fillies in the Herecomesthebride Stakes, but that race was just okay. She ll be bet, as will Chad Brown s TAPERGE, and Tom Proctor s TAKE A DEEP BREATH (GB). They re all nice fillies, but I ve got my eyes on H. James Bond s SCHEME. She was great when winning her debut here in December and overcame plenty of traffic trouble that day. I don t want to miss out when she makes it 2-for-2 in her young career on Saturday. Main Contenders: SCHEME looks like a potential star to me. She s well-bred for the turf, out of a Storm Cat mare who was 2-for-3 on the lawn at Santa Anita. Her second-dam was a monster going long on the turf, winning nine times and bankrolling almost $700K. In her only start, SCHEME checked going into the first-turn, was inside with traffic around her down the backstretch, and after she made her far-turn move along the inside, had to bully her way through horses at the top of the stretch to get the money at 27/1. Watch the replay you ll be impressed! That race has produced three next-out winners and another horse who won two starts later. HAPPY MESA showed a lot of potential as a two-yearold, winning the Selima Stakes sprinting on the turf at Laurel Park and finishing second going long in the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita. In her comeback race on March 4, she found herself behind a wall of horses turning for home and closed with late interest to be fourth. TAPERGE has had two strong starts this year and is by top sire, Tapit. That means the sky s the limit for her, but she must step up her game. Finally, TAKE A DEEP BREATH goes out for Tom Proctor, who does very well with horses he imports from Europe. This filly ran great in her US debut in Tampa, but wheels back against a much tougher field this time. More Florida Derby FL Derby/KY Derby Winners (All Time) Year Horse 2015 Nyquist 2013 Orb 2008 Big Brown 2006 Barbaro 2001 Monarchos 1995 Thunder Gulch 1990 Unbridled 1984 Swale 1979 Spectacular Bid 1968 Forward Pass 1964 Northern Dancer 1961 Carry Back 1958 Tim Tam 1956 Needles Value Plays: ACCEPTING looks like an intriguing entrant. She was the beaten favorite last out in an allowance race at Gulfstream, but picks up the services of top jock, Paco Lopez. She has speed and might bounce right back into form in her third start off the layoff. $10 Win, Place: SCHEME ($20) $10 Exacta: SCHEME with HAPPY MESA and TAPERGE ($20) $5 Exacta: SCHEME with ACCEPTING and TAKE A DEEP BREATH ($10) Stan s 1. SCHEME 2. HAPPY MESA 3. TAPERGE 4. TAKE A DEEP BREATH (GB)

7 Honey Fox Stakes $300,000 - Grade 2 Post Time: 4:25 PM ET 4YO+ Fillies & Mares 1 Mile Turf Repeat Performance Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com Analysis: In last year s Honey Fox, CELESTINE took the lead at the break, guided the field through manageable fractions and kicked clear to a 3 ¼-length victory over MISSISSIPPI DELTA. What s to stop a repeat performance in 2017? CELESTINE once again found a field void of much early speed and pairs with a jockey, Jose Ortiz, who is a masterful gate rider and shouldn t have to work very hard in guiding her to the front. If nobody goes with her early, CELESTINE will be very difficult to reel in late. Main Contenders: CELESTINE, obviously. She s 7-for-15 in her career, 4-of-7 at Gulfstream and is the only one of these with a Grade 1 victory on her resume, which she notched in last year s Just a Game at Belmont. If she brings her A-game she s going to be very tough to beat, especially at her preferred onemile distance. Two alternatives to the heavy favorite are LINDA and MISSISSIPPI DELTA. LINDA has evolved into a top-level filly and closed her 2016 campaign with a powerful score in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill Downs. She has been working out on a consistent basis at Palm Meadows since mid- February, but she still may need a start prior to bringing her best. MISSISSIPPI DELTA was second in this last year at odds of 12/1 and won her comeback race here last month. She loves Gulfstream but will need to run better than ever before if she s to beat this bunch. Value Plays: LORI S STONE presents decent value. She should save ground from her rail draw and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, who knows his way to the winner s circle at Gulfstream Park better than just about anyone else. She should be a little sharper than she was last out when she finished third behind CELESTINE in a race here on March 4. Plus, she s a four-time winner on the lawn at Gulfstream, so she definitely has an affinity for the local sod. $25 Exacta: CELESTINE with MISSISSIPPI DELTA and LINDA ($50) Last 5 Honey Fox Winners: 2016 Celestine J. Alvarado 2015 Lady Lara (Ire) J. Alvarado 2014 Centre Court J. Leparoux 2013 Centre Court J. Leparoux 2012 Tapitsfly J. Leparoux Profile of a Honey Fox Winner (Since 1992) Average Odds /1 Winning Favorites... 9 (37.5%) Average Win Margin Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (3rd Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Wire-to-Wire Winners... 6 (25.0%) Super Leparoux: Jockey Julien Leparoux has won four of the past six editions of the Honey Fox and his ROI in the race is $4.97. Additionally, he finished second last year aboard Mississippi Delta at odds of 12/1. Taking It All the Way? Since 2005, five editions of the Honey Fox were won in wireto-wire fashion. Last year s winner, Celestine, contributed to that trend, leading every step of the way in her victory. Down to the Wire: Since 1998, 13-of-18 editions of the Honey Fox were decided by a length or less. Dustin s 1. CELESTINE 2. LINDA 3. MISSISSIPPI DELTA 4. LORI S STONE

8 Gulfstream Park Oaks $250,000 - Grade 2 Post Time: 4:57 PM ET 3YO Fillies 1 1/16 Miles The Plecher/Velazquez Show Goes On Anthony The Big A Stabile, Xpressbet Radio on HRRN Analysis: NONNA BELLA has history on her side in Saturday s Gulfstream Park Oaks, a 100 Point race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won this race four times and her Hall of Fame jockey, John Velazquez, has already notched five Oaks victories. Both are records. Undefeated in two sprints, she ll be making her graded stakes and two-turn debut while giving up a seasoning edge to all but one of her rivals. TEQUILITA has a class edge over the bunch as she s the only stakes winner in the field, having won the Grade 2 Forward Gal over the strip in her last start nearly two months ago. Like NONNA BELLA, this will be her first try around two turns. Main Contenders: Between her connections and distance-laden pedigree, NONNA BELLA must be respected. Like most Pletcher runners, she loves Gulfstream Park and has plenty of speed to get her into the game early. Plus, two sprints to a route is one of my favorite handicapping angles. TEQUILITA is looking for her fourth win in a row and looks to remain undefeated since trainer Michael Matz added Lasix to her repertoire last fall. By 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, distance shouldn t pose a problem for her. These two fillies are the only pair in the field with multiple wins on their respective resumes. SALTY just missed to NONNA BELLA in her debut at odds of 24/1 before breaking her maiden nicely when adding Lasix and changing trainers to Mark Casse. Value Plays: SUMMER LUCK has gained ground through the stretch of her last four tries, including the Grade 2 Davona Dale last out, and should appreciate the added distance. MODACIOUS found herself caught up in a speed duel last out after coming from off the pace to win at first asking and finish second in an entry level allowance/optional claimer two back. Nik Juarez has the call as he wraps up a strong Gulfstream Park Championship Meet. $20 Win: NONNA BELLA ($20) $6 Exacta: NONNA BELLA with SALTY, MODACIOUS and SUMMER LUCK ($18) $2 Trifecta Key: NONNA BELLA with SALTY, MODACIOUS and SUMMER LUCK ($12) Last 5 G.P. Oaks Winners: 2016 Go Maggie Go J. Velazquez 2015 Birdatthewire I. Ortiz Jr In Tune J. Castellano 2013 Dreaming of Julia J. Velazquez 2012 Grace Hall J. Castellano Profile of a G.P. Oaks Winner (Since 1991) Average Odds /1 Winning Favorites (50.0%) Average Win Margin Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (3rd Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Wire-to-Wire Winners... 6 (23.0%) Bet on Todd: Super-trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won four editions the Gulfstream Park Oaks and his all-time record in the race is His ROI is $3.18. Favorites are Key: Favorites have won five of the last six editions of the Gulfstream Park Oaks and 12 of the past 21. Only one favorite in that span finished out of the Trifecta. It s Usually a Blowout: Since 1991, only four editions of the Gulfstream Park Oaks were decided by one-length or less. They re all still chasing Dreaming of Julia, who won by a record margin of 21 ¾-lengths in Big A s 1. NONNA BELLA 2. SALTY 3. MODACIOUS 4. SUMMER LUCK

9 Cutler Bay Handicap $100,000 Post Time: 5:32 PM ET 3YO 1 Mile Turf Where s the Pace? Millie Ball, XBTV.com Analysis: There isn t a clear standout in this year s edition of the Cutler Bay, but what jumps out at me is the lack of pace. CONQUEST BANDIT appears to be the lone speed and trainer Mike Maker appears to be trying to harness that speed by removing the blinkers in order to help him relax and get the trip. Lone speed is always dangerous, but I just don t trust this colt. In his most recent start he broke from the gate lathered in sweat and was aggressive into the first turn and down the backside. He settled down once he hit the lead, but he had little left when challenged. With that in mind, I m pretty confident they won t ask CONQUEST BANDIT to rate this time! With such little speed signed on, INHERITTHEWIND and DOVER CLIFFS both look to sit a perfect stalking trip and each has significant upside. Main Contenders: INHERITTHEWIND was very professional is his career debut. He broke sharp and rated beautifully around the first turn for Julien Leparoux, which enabled him to move from inside to outside and stalk the leader. And when the real running started, he accelerated on command and won relatively easily. I expect him to get a similar trip, stalking CONQUEST BANDIT. INHERITTHEWIND is a son of Tapit, out of a multiple graded stakes placed mare and sold for $400K at auction as a yearling. Trainer Mark Casse told me, he is an improving colt and he is fast! DOVER CLIFFS is a physically stronger looking colt than INHERITTHEWIND and he broke his maiden last out in remarkably similar fashion. He strikes me as a colt who doesn t quite have as much tactical speed and demonstrated he is still a little green when drifting in down the stretch last time out. But, like INHERITTHEWIND, he has a ton of upside with a nice turf pedigree and is training forwardly. Neither would be a surprise. Value Plays: SIR SEBASTIAN came up through the claiming ranks and appears to be much better as a three-year-old, having won three of his last four races. He experienced traffic in the stretch in the Sage of Monticello Stakes two back but showed a really good punch to win an allowance last time out, beating ERASMO S DREAM. $4 Trifecta Key: INHERITTHEWIND with ERASMO S DREAM, CONQUEST BANDIT, SIR SEBASTIAN and DOVER CLIFFS ($48) $2 Win: INHERITTHEWIND ($2) More Florida Derby Post Position Stats (1991) Post Wins/Starts Post Wins/Starts (Win%) 1 0/26 (-) 2 3/26 (11.5%) 3 4/26 (15.4%) 4 7/26 (26.9%) 5 1/26 (3.8%) 6 4/26 (15.4%) 7 4/25 (16.0%) (Win%) 8 1/23 (4.3%) 9 0/18 (-) 10 1/14 (7.1%) 11 0/8 (-) 12 1/5 (20.0%) 13 0/3 (-) 14 0/1 (-) Since 1991, the Florida Derby has been won in 23-of-26 years by horses breaking from Post Positions 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Largest Winning Margin Empire Maker (2003)... 9 ¾ Lengths Fastest Time Gen. Duke (1957)... 1:46 4/5 Largest Win Payout Williamstown Kid (1966)... $ Smallest Win Payout Spectacular Kid (1979)... $2.10 Honest Pleasure (1976)... $2.10 Most Wins by a Trainer Todd Pletcher... 3 Wins John Veitch... 3 Wins Nick Zito... 3 Wins Most Wins by an Active Jockey Edgar Prado... 3 Wins Mike Smith... 3 Wins John Velazquez... 3 Wins Millie s 1. INHERITTHEWIND 2. DOVER CLIFFS 3. SIR SEBASTIAN 4. ERASMO S DREAM

10 Pan American Stakes $200,000 - Grade 2 Post Time: 6:06 PM ET 4YO+ 1 1/2 Miles Turf Familiar Foes Square Off Again Jeff Siegel, XBTV.com Analysis: Familiar foes meet over 1 1/2-miles on the turf in a race that most likely will produce a cavalry charge from the quarter pole home. The logical favorite is TAGHLEEB, a winner in his last two starts, including the Grade 3 W.L. McKnight Stakes over this course and distance in late January, a race in which he earned a career top speed figure. Freshened for two months - he was a program scratch (trainer s decision) March 4 in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes. The son of Hard Spun is a true stayer with a highly-effective turn of foot that allows him to cope with any type of pace scenario. With good racing luck, the Mike Makertrained six-year-old should be hard to contain when it matters the most. Main Contenders: Besides TAGHLEEB, you ve got PATTERSON CROSS, who was arguably best in the aforementioned Mac Diarmida. The lightly-raced son of Arch was at least three wide every step of the way without cover, yet kept on bravely the length of the stretch and wound up second, beaten just a head by Wake Forest while equaling his career top speed figure. With just eight races on his resume, the Bill Mott-trained colt clearly has room for further development and if he moves forward today, he could easily capture his first career stakes race. SADLER S JOY looks very similar on paper to Patterson Cross. The son of Kitten s Joy has raced just seven times, but his narrow defeat to TAGHLEEB in the McKnight shows he s a major player at this level. Value Plays: MR. MAYBE is rounding back to his best form and may be sitting on an explosive performance. He was a non-threatening 10th in his seasonal debut in the McKnight, but he encountered traffic problems that day and lost all chance. He then finished eagerly to be fifth (beaten just one-length) in the Mac Diarmida five weeks later and really won t have to improve much to win a race of this type. He ll be a square price and deserves consideration in both your vertical and horizontal exotics. $8 Exacta: TAGHLEEB with PATTERSON CROSS, SADLER S JOY and MR. MAYBE ($24) $5 Exacta Box: TAGHLEEB and PATTERSON CROSS ($10) $4 Exacta Box: TAGHLEEB and SADLER S JOY ($8) $4 Exacta Box: TAGHLEEB and MR. MAYBE ($8) Last 5 Pan American Winners: 2016 Kaigun J. Bravo 2015 Imagining I. Ortiz Jr Newsdad J. Rosario 2013 Twilight Eclipse J. Castellano 2012 Newsdad J. Leparoux Profile of a Pan American Winner (Since 1991) Average Odds /1 Winning Favorites... 5 (19.2%) Average Win Margin Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (3rd Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (4th Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Wire-to-Wire Winners... 4 (15.4%) Mott-standing: Trainer Bill Mott has won the Pan American a record six times, and since 1991 he has a record of in the race with an ROI of $2.32. It s Just a Number: Including the 2015 winner, Imagining, seven seven-year-olds have won the Pan American. Tearing Up the Track: The 2013 and 2014 editions of the Pan American were the fastest in history, with Twilight Eclipse (2013) stopping the clock in 2:22.63 and Newsdad (2014) hitting the wire in 2: Jeff s 1. TAGHLEEB 2. PATTERSON CROSS 3. SADLER S JOY 4. MR. MAYBE

11 Xpressbet Florida Derby $1,000,000 - Grade 1 Post Time: 6:40 PM ET 3YO 1 1/8 Miles Price Hunting Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports Analysis: I m handicapping this year s Xpressbet.com Florida Derby under the widely-held assumption that Todd Pletcher will scratch one of his two entrants, most likely BATTALION RUNNER, who will instead race in the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby. With the impressive BATTALION RUNNER out, this field doesn t look quite as daunting, which could open the door for an under-the-radar type to jump up and knock off likely favorite GUNNEVERA, who merits respect but has to overcome an outside post. Main Contenders: GUNNEVERA has become one of the consensus Kentucky Derby favorites based on his victories in the Grade 2 Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth, Grade 2 Saratoga Special and the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot. Javier Castellano, who was in the irons for all three of those wins, will be aboard once again Saturday. The only knocks on him are he s somewhat pace-dependent and also must overcome a far outside draw. Castellano will have to toe a fine line between saving ground and not spotting the field too many lengths. I like what I ve seen from STATE OF HONOR, who sheds the blinkers for trainer, Mark Casse. His last two races at Tampa came against Triple Crown Trail heavy hitters like McCraken and Tapwrit and the last time he raced at Gulfstream he just missed in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. With the shades off, I think he ll settle just behind the speed and get first run on GUNNEVERA. If he relaxes, I think he has a huge shot at upsetting this field at very attractive odds. Value Plays: IMPRESSIVE EDGE and UNBRIDLED HOLIDAY are both doubledigits on the morning line, but I m using each of them in my exotic wagers. They actually have a lot in common both are sons of 2002 Florida Derby winner, Harlan s Holiday, both brought at least $400K at public auction and both are seeking their first stakes victory. IMPRESSIVE EDGE is the more polished of the two, having won an allowance race last out by 8-lengths, but both should take advantage of a favorable pace setup and should be heard from late if the pace falls apart. $20 Win: STATE OF HONOR ($20) $10 Exacta: STATE OF HONOR with GUNNEVERA, IMPRESSIVE EDGE and UNBRIDLED HOLIDAY ($30) Last 5 Florida Derby Winners: 2016 Nyquist M. Gutierrez 2015 Materiality J. Velazquez 2014 Constitution J. Castellano 2013 Orb J. Velazquez 2012 Take Charge Indy C. Borel Profile of a Florida Derby Winner (Since 1991) Average Odds /1 Winning Favorites... 7 (26.9%) Average Win Margin Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Average Beaten Lengths Lengths (3rd Call) Average Beaten Lengths Lengths Wire-to-Wire Winners... 5 (19.2%) Odds in their Favor? No favorite has won the Florida Derby since Big Brown won in Last year s favorite, Mohaymen, finished fourth behind Nyquist. The Todd Squad: Todd Pletcher, Gulfstream s leading trainer every winter since 2004, has won the Florida Derby three times (2015, 2013, 2007). His overall record in the race is ($1.08 Win ROI). It s (Almost) Always Sunny : Of the previous 66 editions off the Florida Derby, only five were run on a wet track. Furthermore, 22 of the last 23 versions were run on a track labeled fast. Eddie s 1. STATE OF HONOR 2. GUNNEVERA 3. IMPRESSIVE EDGE 4. UNBRIDLED HOLIDAY

12 866.88XPRESS ( ) Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line