March 31, 2018 Gulfstream Park

Transcription

1 March 3, 8 Gulfstream Park XPRESS ( )

2 Meet the Xpressbet Florida Derby Contenders By Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com : If you want your Xpressbet Florida Derby pick to have the right trainer and jockey, look no further than. Both his trainer, Todd Pletcher, and jockey, John Velazquez, have won this race four times the most alltime for each craft. has won three straight races by 7 combined lengths, including a 5 ½length score in the G Holy Bull at Gulfstream on February 3. If he can duplicate that performance, he ll be awfully tough to beat. : One of the fastest horses in the Xpressbet Florida Derby, led every step of the way to win the G Xpressbet Fountain of Youth on March 3, his third victory in four career starts. His backers that day were rewarded handsomely $38 for a $ bet. He won t be a longshot this time around in fact, he may even go favored! A victory would avenge the heartbreaking defeat of his sire, Shackleford, in the Florida Derby, when he was passed by Dialed In just before the finish line. : The faster the pace in the Xpressbet Florida Derby, the more it ll favor the race s best closer,. After beginning his career on the turf, won the G Remsen on the dirt last December at Aqueduct, catapulting him onto the Triple Crown Trail. He ll have a new jockey in the Xpressbet Florida Derby as Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride him for the first time. Ortiz was aboard when he won the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth. Strike Power: Heading into the G Xpressbet Fountain of Youth last month, horseplayers wondered if Strike Power would be effective in twoturn races. After all, he d never raced beyond 7furlongs and some handicappers felt he didn t look great galloping out after his victory in the G3 Swale. Those concerns were handled with ease, as Strike Power crossed the finish line second behind, beaten just ¼lengths. Now horseplayers are faced with another question can he finish one spot better this time around Storm Runner: Despite finishing seventh in the G Xpressbet Fountain of Youth, several factors point to a turnaround for Storm Runner. His trainer, Dale Romans, remarked the colt had no chance in the Fountain of Youth due to a troubled trip, and it s worth noting he was bet down to 9/ that afternoon off a 5/ morning line. His backers should expect better value and, hopefully, a better result.

3 Xpressbet Florida Derby Expert Picks Eddie Olczyk Jeff Siegel Aaron Vercruysse Anthony Stabile NBC Sports XBTV XBTV Xpressbet Radio @TheBigAStabile Hofburg Mississippi Hofburg Hofburg Mississippi Strike Power Strike Power Stan Salter Johnny D Jeremy Plonk Dustin Fabian Maryland Jockey Hofburg Hofburg Storm Runner Mississippi

4 Betting the Triple Crown Preps Check Out these Great Promotions! MoneyBack On the Preps Make a Win Bet on this spring s hottest Triple Crown preps and we ll refund it if your horse finishes nd or 3rd. % Takeout On the Preps Hit the selected % Takeout Bet for each prep race and we ll refund the takeout if you hit it! Conditions Apply. Visit Xpressbet.com for details. Conditions Apply. Visit Xpressbet.com for details. Remaining Prep Races Jockey Prep Track % Takeout Promotion Florida Derby Gulfstream % Takeout on Gulfstream s Late Pick UAE Derby Meydan (Dubai) % Takeout on UAE Derby Exactas Santa Anita Derby Santa Anita % Takeout on Santa Anita s Late Pick Wood Memorial Aqueduct % Takeout on the Wood Memorial Pick Blue Grass Keeneland % Takeout on Blue Grass Trifectas Arkansas Derby Oaklawn % Takeout on the Arkansas Derby Double Lexington Keenland % Takeout on Lexington Exactas 4..8 Federico Tesio Laurel % Takeout on Federico Tesio Exactas Visit Xpressbet.com for a Full List XPRESS ( ) Must be 8 or older ( in AL, AZ, IA, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line

5 Xpressbet Florida Derby Stats and Trends AllTime Xpressbet Florida Derby Record Today s Trainers Post Trainer Horse Starts Win Place Show Win ROI AVG Odds Mark Hennig Jaime Meija Stanley Gold Dale Romans Dale Romans Jonathan Thomas Bill Mott Todd Pletcher Mark Casse Strike Power Millionaire Runner Tip Sheet Storm Runner Hofburg Mississippi $. $. $. $. $. $. $.4 $. 5.9/ 8.3/ 57.6/ 34.3/ 34.3/.58/ 6.8/ 5.35/ AllTime Xpressbet Florida Derby Record Today s Jockeys Post Jockey Horse Starts Win Place Show Win ROI AVG Odds Luis Saez Jose Batista Edgard Zayas Robby Albarado Tyler Gaffalione Irad Ortiz Jr. Jose Ortiz John Velazquez Julien Leparoux Strike Power Millionaire Runner Tip Sheet Storm Runner Hofburg Mississippi $. $. $. $. $. $. $.8 $ / 3.8/ 6.5/ 5./ 6.7/ 5./ 9.4/ 8.7/ Winning Xpressbet Florida Derby Post Positions Since 99 Post Starters Winners

6 Dubai World Cup $,, Dubai Race 9 (Post Time: :5PM ET) 3YO+, /4 Miles (Dirt) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf Time to Buck the Trend By Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com Analysis: As you ll see in the stats and trends in the right pane of this page, there is a historical formula for use when identifying the Dubai World Cup winner. Chances are good the winner is going to either come from the US or Dubai, with seven of the last nine dirt World Cups (it was contested on a synthetic trace from 4) having been won by US horses. Furthermore just one horse won the World Cup after making his final prep in Europe Almutawakel, way back in 999. I think that trend changes in 8, as Frenchbased TALISMANIC is my pick to win the Dubai World Cup. Main Contenders: WEST COAST is going to be heavily bet based on his loaded resume, which includes wins in the G Travers and G Pennsylvania Derby and a runnerup performance in the G Pegasus World Cup. With Gun Runner in Kentucky making babies, this is his chance to move to the top of the division. My top pick, TALISMANIC, won the G Breeders Cup Turf last fall at Del Mar and was a phenomenal nd behind Highland Reel in the G Hong Kong Vase in December. He has finished in the Exacta in 3of8 career starts, but has never raced on the dirt. The closest he came was the synthetic surface at Chantilly in France, which he won on in a prep race on March 6. His sire, Medaglia d Oro, raced exclusively on dirt and finished nd in the 4 World Cup. And all reports from Dubai indicate he has taken a liking to the surface. GUNNEVERA finished directly behind WEST COAST in both the G Travers and G Pegasus World Cup and can t be overlooked. Value Plays: THUNDER SNOW and NORTH AMERICA spent the entire winter in Dubai and has one win from three starts at the meet. THUNDER SNOW is familiar with US bettors who remember his antics in last year s Kentucky Derby, but NORTH AMERICA got the latest laugh, beating THUNDER SNOW by 5 ¼lengths in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 on March. $5 Wagering Strategy: $5 Exacta Box: TALISMANIC and WEST COAST ($) $ Trifecta Key: TALISMANIC with WEST COAST, THUNDER SNOW, and GUNNEVERA ($) $ Trifecta: TALISMANIC, WEST COAST with TALISMANIC, WEST COAST with ALL ($4) $ Trifecta: TALISMANIC, WEST COAST with ALL with TALISMANIC, WEST COAST ($4) Arrogate (M. Smith) overcame a bad start to give Bob Baffert his third Dubai World Cup victory and first since. Among those he defeated in the World Cup was eventual Breeders Cup Classic winner and Horse of the Year, Gun Runner (F. Geroux). Neolithic (J. Velazquez) rounded out a 3 sweep for USbased horses. Dubai World Cup Snapshot: (Since 996) Stakes Record: :59.5 (Dubai Millenium, ) Largest Win Margin: 4 (Well Armed, 999) Most Victories (Trainer): 7 (Saeed bin Suroor) Most Victories (Jockey): 4 (Jerry Bailey) Most Victories (Country): (United States) American Made: USbased runners have won of editions of the Dubai World Cup, including of7 editions run on a dirt track (Meydan had a synthetic surface for the 4 runnings). USbased runners have won seven of the last nine Dubai World Cup s contested on a conventional dirt track. Where They Prepped: Horses that made their final preworld Cup start in Dubai have won editions of the Dubai World Cup, followed by Gulfstream Park (6 winners) and Santa Anita (3 winners). Just three horses won the Dubai World Cup after competing in their final prep race somewhere other than the United States or Dubai (Japan had winners and France had ). Dustin s Picks. TALISMANIC (GB). WEST COAST 3. THUNDER SNOW (IRE) 4. GUNNEVERA

7 Cutler Bay Stakes $5, Race 4 (Post Time: :PM ET) 3YO, Mile (Turf) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf Different Setup, Different Result By Jeremy Plonk, Analysis: The Cutler Bay is the first stakes offered on the card, and is a key part of the Early Pick 5. With a field of six, it s natural for horseplayers to try and find their Pick 5 single here. That can lead to a major overlay if you can beat the favorite. A horse that pays $8 or $9 in this situation can play almost like a or 5 shot in the Pick 5 payouts if you think the favorite can be beaten. Main Contenders: SPEED FRANCO cuts back to his (literally) perfect distance at mile, where he s unbeaten in three tries. He was lone speed with no excuse when surrendering the lead in the G3 Palm Beach over a sixteenth farther in trip as the 85 favorite on March 3. The question now becomes pace and how he ll be ridden with Jose Ortiz taking over in the reins for the first time. THERAPIST was third in the Palm Beach and figures to improve secondtime off the layoff and second outing with Lasix. He earned a 99 BRIS late pace figure and benefits if SPEED FRANCO takes heat. That likely comes from SALAMANZAR, winner of the Texas Glitter sprinting 5furlongs here on February 4. But note horses going from turf sprints to mile listed stakes at Gulfstream are just for3 and 6% in the money since. Value Plays: NEEPAWA gets a 6pound weight break from SPEED FRANCO and must make up 3lengths from the Palm Beach. He has fired bullet workouts since that race and could be poised for a strong effort. THE DOW gets rider Nik Juarez on a big class rise, but he s 35% wins and 66% in the Exacta in smallfield turf miles at Gulfstream. Multirace value comes in beating SPEED FRANCO with THERAPIST. Dover Cliffs (J. Ortiz) became the second winning Cutler Bay favorite in as many years. Longshot Gemologister (J. Chimafi) led early and held on to finish nd at odds of 87/, keying a $3 Exacta payout. Cutler Bay Snapshot: (Since 6) Stakes Record: Largest Win Margin: :34.74 (Giant Run, 6) / (Dover Cliffs, 7) Winning Favorites: (.%) WiretoWire Winners: (5.%) Average Win Odds:.7/ Average Exacta ($): $3.5 Average Trifecta ($): $3.75 Two Soon to Tell With just two prior editions, it s probably too early to develop key Cutler Bay trends and facts. Favorites are a perfect twofortwo in the race, however, with Dover Cliffs (7) and Giant Run (6) both winning as the public s pick. Early speed horses have finished in the Exacta in the last two years. $5 Wagering Strategy: $4 Exacta: THERAPIST with SPEED FRANCO ($4) $5 Exacta: THERAPIST with NEEPAWA and THE DOW ($) Jeremy s Picks. THERAPIST. SPEED FRANCO 3. NEEPAWA 4. SALMANAZAR

8 Sanibel Island Stakes $5, Race 5 (Post Time: :3PM ET) 3YO Fillies, Mile (Turf) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf Nominee for Best Performance By Stan Salter, Maryland Horse Analysis: Nice job by the Gulfstream Park Racing Office putting together a nice group of promising 3YO fillies for this race. To my eyes, there are two fillies that stand over the field. Trainer Christophe Clement is a turf specialist and he sends out the favorite, BEST PERFORMANCE, who was second in the G Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly Turf last November at Del Mar. She hasn t run since, but shows several solid fivefurlong workouts on her tab, which indicates she is ready to fire a big effort off the layoff. The Championship Meet s leading trainer Todd Pletcher will send out the likely secondchoice with the wellbred Tapit filly AMERTUME, who drew the rail. Main Contenders: BEST PERFORMANCE hasn t run a bad race yet, and she has shown she can run well fresh, which is what she will have to do today coming off almost a fivemonth layoff. Her running style is to rally from off the pace, so expect her jockey, Jose Ortiz, to take back and try to save ground going into the first turn. If she s on her A game, she will blow by this field in the final strides. AMERTUME was bred to be a very nice filly, and she s run well in both of her starts, with a game runnerup performance in her most recent race, the G3 Herecomesthebride on March 3. She s been ridden by the Hall of Famer Johnny Velazquez in both of her starts, and he should get a nice groundsaving trip breaking from the inside. Pletcher and Velazquez are winning at a 3% clip together during the Gulfstream Championship Meet, with a positive ROI. Conquest Hardcandy (E. Zayas) took the field gatetowire for trainer Antonio Sano. Fillies trained by perennial powerhouse turf trainers Graham Motion (Happy Mesa) and Chad Brown (Taperge) finished 3. Sanibel Island Snapshot: (Since 5) Stakes Record: :34.68 (Harmonize, 6) Largest Win Margin: 3 /4 (Celestine, 5) Winning Favorites: (.%) Average Win Odds: 6.37/ Average Exacta ($): $48.53 Average Trifecta ($): $76.77 Failed Favorites: While favorites are for3 in the brief history of the Sanibel Island, they have finished in the Exacta on a pair of occasions. Last year s / favorite, Happy Mesa, was beaten just a neck. Value Plays: The only twotime winner in the race is FERDINANDA, who is a homebred for the late William M. Backer, one of the top breeders in Virginia history. She is by Giant s Causeway and she is a perfect for over this course for trainer Barclay Tagg. If she continues to progress she might be able to pull off the upset with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons. ORIGINATOR won her debut sprinting over this turf course and was a solid second last out in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs. $5 Wagering Strategy: $3 Exacta: BEST PERFORMANCE with AMERTUME ($3) $ Exacta: BEST PERFORMANCE with ORIGINATOR and FERDINANDA ($) Stan s Picks. BEST PERFORMANCE. AMERTUME 3. FERDINANDA 4. ORIGINATOR

9 Gulfstream Hardacre Mile $3, Grade Race 8 (Post Time: 3:PM ET) 4YO+, Mile (Dirt) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf 7 Triple Crown Stalwarts Square Off Again By Jeff Siegel, Analysis: Last year at about this time, ALWAYS DREAMING and IRISH WAR CRY were atop the thoroughbred racing world, with the former winning the Xpressbet Florida Derby and then the Kentucky Derby, while the latter was easily capturing the Wood Memorial before finishing second in the Belmont Stakes. Almost shockingly, neither has won a race since. Today, ALWAYS DREAMING is likely to be a bit rusty in what will be his first start since August. Plus, he has yet to win a oneturn race. On the other hand, IRISH WAR CRY has the benefit of a recent run at Gulfstream in the G3 Hal s Hope on February 4 and catches what projects to be a very soft pace that may allow him to be the controlling speed. Though he s never been one to trust (he s failed as the favorite three times), the Graham Motiontrained colt couldn t have found a more ideal situation. Main Contenders: TOMMY MACHO and PAGE MCKENNEY are thoroughly professional veterans who have shown consistent form in these types of races for several seasons. While neither can claim a G win on their resume, both are in fine form at the present. TOMMY MACHO is fresh from a nice win in the Fred W. Hooper Stakes over this track and distance in late January while PAGE MCKENNEY just cruised to a six length win in a twoturn overnight stakes here last month. The 8yearold usually competes in longer races but it s worth noting that he s won his last two outings around one turn. Value Plays: In this small field of six, it s difficult to find many real price chances. CONQUEST BIG E just finished well behind IRISH WAR CRY in the Hal s Hope, but has never earned a tripledigit Beyer Speed Figure, which will likely be needed to win this race. MR. JORDAN is a tough old pro, but is winless in career starts at Gulfstream Park. Still, the race can be playable if you can locate a vertical exotic key. For me, that s IRISH WAR CRY. $5 Wagering Strategy: $3 Win: IRISH WAR CRY ($3) $5 Exacta Box: IRISH WAR CRY, TOMMY MACHO ($) $5 Exacta Box: IRISH WAR CRY, PAGE MCKENNEY ($) Held in February last year, Jorge Navarro s Sharp Azteca (E. Zayas) reaffirmed his affinity for the Gulfstream Park oval with a 4 ½length score over Awesome Slew. He would subsequently finish 3rd in the Godolphin Mile (G) before winning the G Cigar Mile in November. Gulfstream Park Mile Snapshot: (Since 99) Stakes Record (8F): :33.8 (Palace Malice, 4) Largest Win Margin (8F): 5 /4 (Discreet Dancer, 3) Winning Favorites: (44.4%) WiretoWire Winners: 3 (.%) Average Win Odds: 4.35/ Average Exacta ($): $69.7 Average Trifecta ($): $44.5 Failing Favorites: Despite the above stat that favorites have won of7 runnings since 99, they ve been beaten in eight of the last ten years. Speed Doesn t Carry: Frontrunners have not fared well in the Gulfstream Park Mile, with just 3of7 editions being won in gatetowire fashion since 99. Tackleberry () was the only horse to lead every step of the way since 3. The Javier & Johnny Show: Start your handicapping with horses ridden by John Velazquez and Javier Castellano. They ve combined to win seven of the last editions of the Gulfstream Park Mile Castellano has four wins and Velazquez has three. Jeff s Picks. IRISH WAR CRY. TOMMY MACHO 3. PAGE MCKENNEY 4. ALWAYS DREAMING

10 Honey Fox Stakes $5, Grade 3 Race (Post Time: 4:49PM ET) 4YO+ Fillies & Mares, Mile (Turf) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf Grizzel in the Fox By Anthony The Big A Stabile, Xpressbet Analysis: There is a little something for everyone in this renewal of the G3 Honey Fox. You have multiple graded stakes winners like LULL and ON LEAVE. There are two in here who just tasted stakes victory for the first time STORMY VICTORIA and TEAM OF TEAMS. There is GRIZZEL, who always seems to answer the bell on the grass but has run into some pretty tough customers. GLORY TO KITTEN puts her perfect fiveforfive record over the course on the line while others are taking a step up in class. A fantastic way to start the late Pick 4! Main Contenders: ON LEAVE is a multiple graded stakes winner that won the G3 My Charmer locally when she was last seen on December 6. She s hit the board in all six tries at a mile, with four victories to her credit, but was done no favors at the draw as she drew Post Position # for Hall of Fame trainer, Shug McGaughey, and rider, Irad Ortiz Jr. GRIZZEL finished behind the likes of New Money Honey, Quidura and Holy Helena last season before a solid second in her 4YO debut in the Sand Springs on March 3. Gulfstream s leading rider, Luis Saez, picks up the mount as Javier Castellano, who rode her last time out, is in Dubai. STORMY VICTORIA flew home from last early to take the South Beach Stakes after falling a halflength short in the My Charmer. She should get a solid pace to close into once again for a heatingup Christophe Clement barn. Value Plays: If you re a horseforthecourse fan, GLORY TO KITTEN is for you. She s taking a serious step up in class, but five of her six wins have come over the local sod and she s as versatile as they come. Her rail draw is perfect, as well. TEAM OF TEAMS and John Velazquez put them to sleep on the front end of the Sand Springs most recently, her first victory since taking her stateside debut nearly a year ago. Christophe Clement s Celestine (J. Ortiz) captured her second consecutive victory in the Honey Fox in gatetowire fashion, becoming the second backtoback winner of the race in the last five years (Centre Court, 3 & 4). Honey Fox Snapshot: (Since 99) Stakes Record (8FT): :33.8 (Centre Court, 3) Largest Win Margin (8FT): 3 /4 (Celestine, 6) Winning Favorites: (46.%)WiretoWire WiretoWire Winners: 8 (3.8%) Average Win Odds: 4.6/ Average Exacta ($): $96.5 Average Trifecta ($): $364.5 Super Leparoux: Jockey Julien Leparoux has an impressive 84 record in the Honey Fox, with a lifetime Win ROI of $4.35. He won four consecutive editions of the race from to 4 and finished third last year aboard Linda. Taking It All the Way Since 5, six editions of the Honey Fox were won in gatetowire fashion. Celestine won both the 6 and 7 editions leading the entire way. $5 Wagering Strategy: $ Win: GRIZZEL ($) $5 Exacta Key Box: GRIZZEL with ON LEAVE, GLORY TO KITTEN and TEAM OF TEAMS ($3) Big A s Picks. GRIZZEL. ON LEAVE 3. GLORY TO KITTEN 4. TEAM OF TEAMS

11 Gulfstream Park Oaks $3, Grade Race (Post Time: 5:5PM ET) 3YO Fillies, /6 Miles (Dirt) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf An Upset in the Oaks By Johnny D, Analysis: National interest in what happens with 3yearold fillies always pales in comparison to hype reserved for male counterparts. This year is no exception. While the male 3yearold crop headed toward the Kentucky Derby seems packed with talent, the filly division appears to lack depth. This season s Gulfstream Park Oaks is a reflection of the wideopen nature of the female sophomore class. Six of 3 entered here last raced at Gulfstream Park. Four of those exit the oneturn, onemile G Davona Dale on March 3, topped by that day s runnerup, TAKE CHARGE PAULA. Four other entrants emerge from Tampa s Suncoast a twoturn event at a mile and forty yards including that race s winner C.S. INCHARGE. Analysis of this Oaks must begin, but not end, with those races. Main Contenders: G3 Forward Gal winner and G Davona Dale runnerup TAKE CHARGE PAULA deserves serious attention in here. She has speed and has won two out of her three races at Gulfstream. With five wins in eight career starts, she must be respected. C.S. INCHARGE parlayed a sloppytrack maiden score into a hardfought Suncoast victory at Tampa Bay over DAISY and MIHRAB foes she meets again in here. Those recent successes will make her an attractive wagering proposition, perhaps more attractive than she ought to be. After all, she was nearly 8 in the Suncoast after failing to finish within seven lengths of any winner in four previous maiden races. DAISY, a mere threequarters of a length behind C.S. INCHARGE at Tampa as heavy favorite, should get support. She has a maiden win and a victory in the G3 Tempted last November at Aqueduct on her resume. Value Plays: PRINCESS WARRIOR finished fourth in the G3 Herecomesthebride on March 3 at Gulfstream. That race was at a mile and onesixteenth on the turf and was her first out since November, so it should serve as a perfect tune up for this twoturn dirt test. She broke maiden in her debut at Churchill and was a wellbeaten second in the G Alcibiades, before finishing eighth of 3 in the G Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. She seems to have the perfect laterunning style for a race like the Gulfstream Oaks that appears loaded with frontrunners trying twoturns for the first time. Hotriding Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes over. Mark Casse s Salty (J. Rosario) unleashed a powerful closing kick and scored by 4 ¼lengths for trainer Mark Casse. She went on to finish 5th in the Kentucky Oaks while hindered by an outside post position. Gulfstream Park Oaks Snapshot: (Since 99) Stakes Record (8.5FT): :4.4 (Miss Oceana, 984) Largest Win Margin (7.5FT): 3/4 (Dreaming of Julia, 3) Winning Favorites: 4 (5.9%) WiretoWire Winners: 6 (.%) Average Win Odds: 3.8/ Average Exacta ($): $36. Average Trifecta ($): $7. Favorites Rarely Fail: Since 99, favorites have won 4 editions of the Gulfstream Park Oaks, including seven of the last nine. In Todd We Trust: Supertrainer, Todd Pletcher, won four editions of the Gulfstream Park Oaks from 4, but has been shut out since. Nonetheless, his career record in the Oaks is 44, with a lifetime $.86 Win ROI. Be Wary of the Speed: No filly has taken the Gulfstream Park Oaks in wiretowire fashion since 6. Since then, fillies that led at the first point of call went on to finish in the Trifecta just of times. $5 Wagering Strategy: $3 Win: PRINCESS WARRIOR ($3) $ Exacta Box: PRINCESS WARRIOR, DAISY ($) Johnny D s Picks. PRINCESS WARRIOR. DAISY 3. TAKE CHARGE PAULA 4. ALTER MOON

12 Pan American Stakes $5, Grade Race 3 (Post Time: 6:PM ET) 4YO+, / Miles (Turf) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf Happy to Bet Against the Champ By Aaron Vercruysse, Analysis: In order to be the champ, you have to beat the champ. And in the G Pan American, last year s winner, SADLER S JOY, is back for an encore. In addition to being the defending champ, SADLER S JOY also comes off a nice return win earlier this month in the G Mac Diarmida, his first start since the G Breeders Cup Turf on November 4. And that poses a specific problem. If you re like me and want to beat the favorite, we might be up against it. SADLER S JOY never runs a bad race and he loves this course. He has just three local starts but has more wins at Gulfstream than the rest of the field combined. Plus, he has three wins at this marathon ½mile distance. So he should repeat at a short price right Well my Twitter handle so I at least have to try to look elsewhere, right Main Contenders: In addition to SADLER S JOY, ONE GO ALL GO may once again have a pace advantage against this field. He nearly went gatetowire to upset SADLER S JOY in the Mac Diarmida, a race in which he was beaten just ¾length. He once again appears to be lone speed, which makes him dangerous. BULLARDS ALLEY has the field s biggest Beyer Speed Figure (4) and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. to climb on. How about my pick, HI HAPPY He doesn t exit the Mac Diarmida like many of his rivals. Instead, we saw him last in the G Gulfstream Park Turf. That was his first start for Todd Pletcher and his first start in months and it resulted in a career best Beyer Speed Figure as he was beaten just length by the highlyregarded Heart to Heart. There s reason for optimism to believe he can move forward. He has a tactical edge over some of his rivals as he should sit a nice trip on or near a projected slow pace. I think he ll get first run and hold off SADLER S JOY down the lane. Value Plays: CLASSIC COVEY gets a nice rider upgrade to John Velazquez and goes out for Bill Mott after an allowance loss on February. The addition of Velazquez is a positive sign Johnny V doesn t get on no hopers very often but the horse s resume doesn t instill much confidence. Tom Albertrani s Sadler s Joy (J. Leparoux) got the best of a thrilling threeway photo finish that also included Designed for War (J. Rosario) and Patterson Cross (J. Lezcano). Sadler s Joy would go on to win the G Sword Dancer at Saratoga. Pan American Snapshot: (Since 99) Stakes Record (FT): :.63 (Twilight Eclipse, 3) Largest Win Margin (FT): 4 (Twilight Eclipse, 3) Winning Favorites: 5 (8.5%) WiretoWire Winners: 4 (4.8%) Average Win Odds: 5.3/ Average Exacta ($): $63.7 Average Trifecta ($): $.68 Mottstanding: Trainer Bill Mott has won the Pan American a record six times. Since 99, 6 of his 9 starters have finished in the Trifecta. His Win ROI in that span is $.. No AARP Card: In 57 prior editions, 5 winners were six or sevenyearsold at the time of their victory. Three of the last four winners were age six or seven. $5 Wagering Strategy: $3 Win: HI HAPPY ($3) $ Exacta Box: HI HAPPY, SADLER S JOY ($) Aaron s Picks. HI HAPPY (ARG). SADLER S JOY 3. BULLARDS ALLEY 4. ONE GO ALL GO

13 Xpressbet Florida Derby $,, Grade Race 4 (Post Time: 6:36PM ET) 3YO, /8 Miles (Dirt) Post Time: 4:4 PM ET / Miles Turf An Xpressbet Florida Derby Shocker! By Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports Analysis: An openandshut edition of the Xpressbet Florida Derby Not in my eyes. While some handicappers will be betting horses like AUDIBLE and CATHOLIC BOY with both fists, I m looking at this race differently. Nobody jumps off the page at me, and I don t think the gap between the favorites and everyone else is that wide. So with that thinking in mind, my Xpressbet Florida Derby pick is / outsider HOFBURG. Oh, and don t forget, the Xpressbet Florida Derby is the final leg of the possibly massive Rainbow 6 mandatory payout on Saturday, so the race takes on even more importance for horseplayers. Main Contenders: If the pace in the Xpressbet Florida Derby is fast, and most handicappers agree it will be, HOFBURG should benefit. He caught my eye with a sustained rally from an outside post when he broke his maiden on March 3 and he strikes me as the type of horse that should improve with experience. Plus, if Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott thinks he s up to the task that s good enough for me. CATHOLIC BOY is another that would benefit from a fast pace. He won the G Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct with ease last December and finished a solid nd in the G3 Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in February. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides him for the first time Saturday and will be licking his chops at the expected speed duel between the finishers in last month s Xpressbet Fountain of Youth, STRIKE POWER and PROMISES FULFILLED. AUDIBLE, who won the G Holy Bull in February and is looking to give Todd Pletcher a record 5th Xpressbet Florida Derby win, drew outside of those two speed horses and should get a comfortable trip from just behind them. Value Plays: I m not sure there s much more value to be had than HOFBURG s / ML price. If he hits the finish line first, it s safe to say the payouts will be massive. $5 Wagering Strategy: $8 Win/Place: HOFBURG ($6) $ Exacta Box: HOFBURG, CATHOLIC BOY, AUDIBLE ($6) $ Trifecta: HOFBURG with CATHOLIC BOY, AUDIBLE with ALL ($8) Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez teamed for their second Xpressbet Florida Derby victory in three years with Always Dreaming. The son of Bodemeister would go on to win the Kentucky Derby five weeks later. Xpressbet Florida Derby Snapshot: (Since 99) Stakes Record (9FT): :46.8 (Gen. Duke, 957) Largest Win Margin (9FT): 9 3/4 (Empire Maker, 3) Winning Favorites: 7 (5.9%) WiretoWire Winners: 5 (8.5%) Average Win Odds: 6.3/ Average Exacta ($): $.56 Average Trifecta ($): $33. Best of Class: Last year s winning connections Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez lead all active trainers and jockeys with four Xpressbet Florida Derby wins each. Favorite Drought: Despite six of the last nine Xpressbet Florida Derby winners going postward at odds lower than 3/, no posttime favorite has won the race since Big Brown in 8. 5 to Remember: Last year, Always Dreaming became the 5th horse to sweep the Xpressbet Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. Nyquist (5), Orb (3), Big Brown (8), Barbaro (6) and Monarchos () also accomplished the feat this millennium. Eddie s Picks. HOFBURG. CATHOLIC BOY 3. AUDIBLE 4. MISSISSIPPI

14 Ticket Time! Recommended Picks for the Day s Biggest Bets $75, Guaranteed Late Pick 4 One of horse racing s most popular bets has a $75, guarantee on Xpressbet Florida Derby Day! Bet it with your Xpressbet account to take advantage of our % Takeout Offer. Visit Xpressbet.com to learn more. Race :, 3, 4, 6, 8, Race :, 3, 5, 9 Race 3: 3, 8 Race 4: 6, 7, 8 Total Ticket Cost ($.5 Base): $7. Mandatory Payout Rainbow 6 Xpressbet Florida Derby Day is Mandatory Payout Day for the Rainbow 6. That means the entire carryover must go! Heading into Friday s races, the carryover was over $4.5 million. If that holds until Saturday, there are going to be some very happy handicappers! Race 9:,, 7 Race : 3, 4, 9 Race :, 3, 4, 6, 8, Race :, 3, 5, 9 Race 3: 3, 8 Race 4: 6, 7, 8 Total Ticket Cost ($. Base): $59.