TRAVERS STAKES XPRESS ( ) AUGUST 27, 2016 SARATOGA. National Gambling Support Line

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1 TRAVERS STAKES AUGUST 27, 2016 SARATOGA XPRESS ( ) National Gambling Support Line

2 rewards SPLIT 3 MILLION POINTS ON TRAVERS DAY 2 MILLION POINT SPLIT ALL-GRADE 1 PICK 4 (RACES 8 11) Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line Hit Saratoga s Early Pick 4 or All-Grade 1 Pick 4 to win a lucrative split of XB Rewards Points. 1 MILLION POINT SPLIT EARLY PICK 4 (RACES 2 5) Redeem your Points for wagering credits, free past performances, racetrack experiences and more! XPRESS ( )

3 6 Personal Ensign Stakes 750,000 Grade 1 Post Time: 2:23PM ET Fillies & Mares 1 1/8 Miles A Wide Open Affair Johnny D, Xpressbet.com & XBTV Analysis: This race may be the worst gambling opportunity of your lifetime. There is no edge in this race, no angle, no advantage. Might as well use a hatpin to pick a winner. Five 4-year-old fillies will tangle and four of them are Grade 1 winners. Three won their most recent start by more than two lengths. The remaining two gals were second behind those Grade 1 winners. Three of these have won more than half their lifetime starts. In 57 total races members of this field have been in the money 46 times (80%) with 33 outright wins (58%)! Picking best in show among these is like culling diamonds at De Beers. Main Contenders: Still, we attempt to split hairs. CURALINA is the 9/5 morning-line choice off an odds-on Shuvee romp in the slop at the Spa on July 31. CAVORTING is second choice at 2-1 based on a powerful Phipps triumph last out on June 11 at Belmont. Both love Saratoga the former is 2-of-4 and the latter is 3-3 at the Spa. FOREVER UNBRIDLED is third choice at 7-2. She finished a troubled second to CAVORTING in the Phipps. Her career pretty much involves winning (four times) or finishing behind either I M A CHATTERBOX (four times) or CAVORTING (once). You could say those three are the main contenders (out of five starters), but then you d be forgetting I M A CHATTERBOX - a multiple Grade 1 winner on a two-race win streak. CHATTERBOX got the best of CURALINA last summer at Saratoga in the CCA Oaks, but was disqualified and placed second. Value Plays: By nothing short of attrition, the lone true value in this field is PAID UP SUBSCRIBER, who was second to I M A CHATTERBOX last time out in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap and previously won the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs. If she can find a way to finish on the board, your exotic wagers are going to pay a little more. 50 Wagering Strategy: 50 Win: CAVORTING (50) Johnny D s 1. CAVORTING 2. CURALINA 3. I M A CHATTERBOX 4. PAID UP SUBSCRIBER Last 5 Personal Ensign Winners: 2015 Sheer Drama J. Bravo 2014 Close Hatches J. Rosario 2013 Royal Delta M. Smith 2012 Love and Pride J. Velazquez 2011 Ask the Moon J. Castellano Longshot Personal Ensign Winners: (Since 2000) Year Horse Payout 2012 Love and Pride Persistently Shadow Cast Passing Shot Trust the Chalk: Extraordinarily, the favorite has finished in the Exacta in 21 of the last 25 editions of the Personal Ensign (11 wins, 10 seconds). Last year s favorite, Stopchargingmaria, finished 4th, breaking a streak of nine straight Exacta finishes by favorites. Beware the Del Cap: Since 1996, Delaware Handicap winners have won the Personal Ensign five times, with an overall record of (1.47 Win ROI). The last two Del Cap winners to race in the Personal Ensign each won it (Sheer Drama, 2015 and Royal Delta, 2013). Speed Carries: Since shortening to its current 1 1/8-mile distance in 2012, no Personal Ensign winner has rallied to win the race from further back than third place.

4 7 Ballerina Stakes 500,000 Grade 1 Post Time: 2:59PM ET Fillies & Mares 7 Furlongs It s Gotta Be Mia Aaron Vercruysse, XBTV Analysis: Unlike last year s Ballerina, which only featured seven starters and two or three primary contenders, this year s edition is ten runners deep and all of them are graded stakes winners. Talk about competition! When you handicap 7F races, no matter what the class, projecting pace and race flow is often an enigma. Although they re called sprint races, the extra furlong often caters most to horses coming from off-the-pace or cutting back in distance. With that in mind, let s concentrate on entrants with previous 7F success and a route-based foundation. Main Contenders: CARINA MIA is the only youngster in the field, but is this race really much tougher than taking on Songbird, which she did last out? Eh, no. As a matter of fact, MIA should love the cutback in distance. She has enough speed to put herself in the race and has a proven ability to finish strong - two big positives. She is 3-for-4 in one-turn races and Joel Rosario opts to ride her over defending Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner, WAVELL AVENUE. SHEER DRAMA has a lot going for her as well. Unlike my top pick, DRAMA is an old lady. Been here done that. She is at the Spa, won last year s Grade 1 Personal Ensign here and I love that she s cutting back in distance from route races (are you seeing a theme here?). Value Plays: Among the others, BY THE MOON, SPELLING AGAIN and HAVEYOUGONEAWAY all enter this off career best performances and each could regress. Then again, maybe they won t. BY THE MOON has never finished off the board in three starts at Saratoga and beat WAVELL AVENUE in her last race downstate at Belmont. 50 Wagering Strategy: 20 Win/Place: CARINA MIA (40) 5 Exacta Box: CARINA MIA and SHEER DRAMA (10) Last 5 Ballerina Winners: 2015 Unbridled Forever J. Velazquez 2014 Artemis Agrotera R. Maragh 2013 Dance to Bristol X. Perez 2012 Turbulent Descent J. Velazquez 2011 Hilda s Passion J. Castellano Sub-Even Money Ballerina Starters: (Since 1995, Odds to 1) Year Horse Odds Finish 2012 Turbulent Descent st 2004 Lady Tak st 2001 Dream Supreme rd 1998 Colonial Minstrel th 1997 Flat Fleet Feet th 1996 Capote Belle nd 1995 Inside Information nd Go (Price) Shopping: Since 1991, Ballerina favorites are just 4-for- 25 with a paltry 0.69 Win ROI. Furthermore, since 2007, favorites are only 1-for-9 with four off-theboard finishes. The average Win payout in that span is Crowned Later: Since 1998, winners of Florida s Princess Rooney are 0-for-9 in the Ballerina with no finishes in the Exacta. However, three fillies, Maryfield (2007), Happy Ticket (2005) and Lady Tak (2004), all went on to win the Ballerina after losing in the Rooney. Aaron s 1. CARINA MIA 2. SHEER DRAMA 3. BY THE MOON 4. SARA S SIS

5 8 King s Bishop Stakes 500,000 Grade 1 Post Time: 3:35PM ET 3YO 7 Furlongs For All the Biscuits Anthony The Big A Stabile, Xpressbet Radio on HRRN Analysis: While the Travers certainly figures to be the highlight of the day, this baker s dozen will almost assuredly give that field a run for its money in the excitement department. SUMMER REVOLUTION, JAZZY TIMES and DREFONG, a trio of up-andcomers representing both coasts, figure to take a ton of action while all making their stakes debut in a race featuring five graded stakes winners and a couple who ve won minor stakes, including a horse who was at the top of nearly every Kentucky Derby poll at the start of the season, MOHAYMEN. This race starts an All-Grade 1 Pick 4 that carries a guaranteed pool of 1 million. Main Contenders: SUMMER REVOLUTION returns just three weeks after an eye opening entry level allowance win that kept him perfect in two starts. DREFONG ships in from Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert riding a three race win streak. MOHAYMEN cuts back to one turn for the first time since taking the Grade 2 Nashua at Aqueduct last fall. TOM S READY used the cut-back method last out when he stormed home to win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens with a last-to-first run at Belmont. MIND YOUR BISCUITS is a perfect 2-for-2 in starts with blinkers, including a determined tally in the Grade 2 Amsterdam last out over the course. Value Plays: STAR HILL gets a new pair of blinkers and a positive rider switch to Florent Geroux for a guy that can pop at a price in Rusty Arnold. RATED R SUPERSTAR has won both of his tries on conventional dirt with blinkers, including the Grade 3 Carry Back at this distance in his latest. Both figure to be aided by what should be a hotly contested pace. 50 Wagering Strategy: 20 Win: MIND YOUR BISCUITS (20) 5 Exacta Key Box: MIND YOUR BISCUITS with MOHAYMEN, STAR HILL and TOM S READY (30) Last 5 King s Bishop Winners: 2015 Runhappy E. Prado 2014 The Big Beast J. Castellano 2013 Capo Bastone I. Ortiz Jr Willy Beamin A. Garcia 2011 Caleb s Posse R. Maragh Largest King s Bishop Exactas: (Since 1991, 2 Payout) Year Horse Payout 2013 Capo Bastone/ Mentor Cane Willy Beamin/ Fort Loudon Runhappy/ Limousine Liberal Valid Video/ Great Notion Visionaire/ Desert Key 126 Three s Company: Three current jockeys John Velazquez (0.69 Win ROI), Edgar Prado (4.46) and Mike Smith (2.40) lead all riders with three King s Bishop victories. Prado won last year s race aboard Runhappy at odds of 11/1. Toteboard Fireworks: Three of the last four editions of the King s Bishop have been marked by massive payouts (see above chart). The 2013 running featured a 759 Exacta, 16,639 Trifecta and 61,232 Superfecta. Big A s 1. MIND YOUR BISCUITS 2. MOHAYMEN 3. TOM S READY 4. STAR HILL

6 9 Forego Stakes 700,000 Grade 1 Post Time: 4:12PM ET 7 Furlongs The Beat Rolls On Jeff Siegel, XBTV Analysis: Five of the 12 entrants in this seven furlong, Grade 1 sprint exit the A.G. Vanderbilt Stakes, which was contested over three-quarters of a mile at Saratoga four weeks ago. The Vanderbilt winner, A.P. INDIAN, earned a career top speed figure in that race while employing an ideal pace-pressing outside trip. It s not difficult to envision a similar scenario today. A winner of nine of 15 career starts (with four seconds), the son of Indian Charlie is unbeaten in three career starts at today s distance and worked a bullet five furlongs last week to keep him on edge. The only concern is the weight assignment he s picking up six pounds but that mildly concerning issue is overshadowed by a projected pace that plays to the strength of the Arnauld Delacour-trained gelding. Main Contenders: MARKING, comfortably drawn just outside of A.P. INDIAN, ran that rival to a head in the Grade 3 Belmont Sprint Stakes in July and, for whatever it s worth, will enjoy a four pound shift in the weights today. The Godolphin-homebred is most effective as a stalking sprinter, and while he s never been able to handle a legitimate Grade 1 runner, it usually takes one to beat him. CATALINA RED is 3-for-3 at this distance, including a career top performance in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes. He was a better-than-looked third in the Vanderbilt and should run well, assuming he can negotiate a decent trip from the rail. Value Plays: LIMOUSINE LIBERAL was runner-up to champion Runhappy over this course and distance in last year s Grade 1 King s Bishop and could return to top form following a nearly two month layoff. He s always been the type of horse that runs well when fresh. STALLWALKIN DUDE is an old pro enjoying good recent form and is two-for-two over the Spa s main track. 50 Wagering Strategy: 20 Win: A.P. INDIAN (20) 5 Exacta Box: A.P. INDIAN and MARKING (10) 5 Exacta Key Box: A.P. INDIAN over CATALINA RED and LIMOUSINE LIBERAL (20) Last 5 Forego Winners: 2015 Private Zone M. Pedroza 2014 Palace C. Velasquez 2013 Strapping Groom J. Alvarado 2012 Emcee A. Garcia 2011 Jackson Bend C. Nakatani Wire-to-Wire Forego Winners: (Since 1991, Odds to 1) Year Horse Odds 2015 Private Zone Strapping Groom Crafty Friend Affirmed Success Housebuster 0.60 Paging Mr. Pletcher: The Forego is the only of today s stakes races that Todd Pletcher has yet to win. He is 0-for-14 in the race, with his best finish coming with Left Bank (2nd, 2001). Can t Trust the Chalk: While favorites have won just two of the last 12 editions of the Forego, they ve also won two of the last four. Last year s favorite, Private Zone, took the field wire-to-wire for a 3 ¾-length score. Don t Forget the Longshots: In each of the last four years, at least one horse has finished in the Forego Trifecta at odds of 15/1 or higher. The average Trifecta payout in that span is 512 for a 2 bet! Jeff s 1. A.P. INDIAN 2. MARKING 3. CATALINA RED 4. LIMOUSINE LIBERAL

7 10 Sword Dancer Stakes 1,000,000 Grade 1 Post Time: 4:49PM ET 1 1/2 Miles Turf If You Can t Beat Em... Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com Analysis: Many bettors, myself included, will lean on the Sword Dancer as a Free Bingo Square in multi-race wagers. After all, it serves as the penultimate leg of the 1 Million Guaranteed All Grade 1 Pick 4 and 250K Guaranteed Pick 6, as well as the start of the Late Pick 4, meaning several of the day s most lucrative wagers intersect through it. And with FLINTSHIRE being the most likely winner on the card, most bettors will be cheering hard for those Juddmonte green, pink and white silks down the lane. Main Contenders: Simply put, there s no denying FLINTSHIRE s status as North America s premier turf horse. He s far superior to anyone he is facing today, and it s hard to envision a scenario in which he s defeated. This globetrotting six-year-old has raced in prestigious races at tracks in France, Great Britain, Dubai and Hong Kong, but he appears right at home at Saratoga, where he is a perfect 2-for-2. He overcame a pedestrian pace to easily defeat GRAND TITO and TWILIGHT ECLIPSE last month in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, and if they couldn t beat him in the prep race, they aren t going to beat him today. Value Plays: With FLINTSHIRE firmly entrenched at miniscule odds, nearly everyone else is going to offer significant value. The best of his rivals appears to be stablemate, MONEY MULTIPLIER, who has placed in a pair of Grade 1 races this year and has an affinity for racing at Saratoga. GRAND TITO was just ¾-length behind FLINTSHIRE in the Bowling Green, but he did so after setting slow fractions. There is more pace signed on this time around, which could hinder his chances. 50 Wagering Strategy: 30 Exacta: FLINTSHIRE over MONEY MULTIPLIER (30) 10 Trifecta: FLINTSHIRE over MONEY MULTIPLIER over GRAND TITO and TWILIGHT ECLIPSE (20) Last 5 Sword Dancer Winners: 2015 Flintshire (GB) V. Cheminaud 2014 Main Sequence R. Maragh 2013 Big Blue Kitten J. Bravo 2012 Point of Entry J. Velazquez 2011 Winchester C. Velasquez Repeat Sword Dancer Winners: (All-Time) Years Horse 2009, 2010 Telling 2007, 2008 Grand Couturier (GB) 2001, 2002 With Anticipation 1989, 1990 El Senor 1983, 1984 Majesty s Prince In Good Company: A victory by Flintshire would make him the sixth horse to win back-to-back editions of the Sword Dancer. See the above table for the full list. Is He Due? Bill Mott leads all current trainers with three Sword Dancer victories. He is winless with his last 14 starters in the race, though. His last win came in 1996 with Broadway Flyer. Shaky Speed: Since 1991, only two horses (With Anticipation, 2001 and Kiri s Clown, 1995) have won the Sword Dancer in wire-to-wire fashion. In that same span, six horses have won the race with lastto-first moves. Dustin s 1. FLINTSHIRE (GB) 2. MONEY MULTIPLIER 3. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE 4. GRAND TITO

8 11 Travers Stakes 1,250,000 Grade 1 Post Time: 5:44PM ET 3YO 1 1/4 Miles The Other Baffert Horse Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports Analysis: This year s Travers appears to be heavy on speed, with frontrunners LAOBAN, DESTIN, AMERICAN FREEDOM and CONNECT all looking to race on or near the lead. And with that much early firepower, I can t help but think this race is going to fall apart late and set up for an off-the-pace runner. There are plenty of solid closers in the field, including Belmont Stakes winner, CREATOR, and Preakness/ Haskell victor, EXAGGERATOR, but I m going to focus my bets on a price horse with plenty of upside Bob Baffert s ARROGATE. Main Contenders: Despite being the lesser-known of Baffert s two Travers entrants (stablemate AMERICAN FREEDOM was runner-up in the Haskell), ARROGATE is the horse I m most interested in. He s making his stakes debut, but despite his lack of credentials he is an incredibly dangerous horse on Saturday. He has always been wellregarded by Baffert and I think his rail draw ensures a comfortable stalking trip from just behind the speed. He s on the upswing and, with just four starts under his belt, he has plenty of room to move forward. EXAGGERATOR merits respect, but his last four wins came on wet tracks and there is no rain in the forecast this weekend at the Spa. Value Plays: GOVERNOR MALIBU, CREATOR and GUN RUNNER are all 10/1 or higher, and each exits a race where circumstances significantly hindered their chances. GOVERNOR MALIBU and CREATOR were 2nd and 6th, respectively, in the Jim Dandy, but the lack of pace that day significantly dulled their closing kicks. This race should play out differently. Similarly, GUN RUNNER didn t handle the sloppy track in the Haskell, so I m expecting better from him Saturday. He ll have to overcome an outside draw, but I trust Florent Geroux to carve out a solid trip. 50 Wagering Strategy: 10 Win/Place: ARROGATE (20) 1 Trifecta Box: ARROGATE, CREATOR, GOVERNOR MALIBU and GUN RUNNER (24) 2 Exacta: ARROGATE with CREATOR, GOVERNOR MALIBU and GUN RUNNER (6) Last 5 Travers Winners: 2015 Keen Ice J. Castellano 2014 V.E. Day J. Castellano 2013 Will Take Charge L. Saez 2012 Alpha (DH) R. Dominguez 2012 Golden Ticket (DH) D. Cohen 2011 Stay Thirsty J. Castellano Winning Travers Post Positions (Since 1901) Post Wins Post Wins Money s on Javy: Javier Castellano has won the Travers an unprecedented five times in just seven tries. His Win ROI in the race is a spectacular A Dandy of a Prep: Since 1992, 13-of-25 Travers winners prepped in Saratoga s Jim Dandy Stakes. On the other hand, just five winners in that span prepped in the Haskell. Eddie s 1. ARROGATE 2. GOVERNOR MALIBU 3. GUN RUNNER 4. CREATOR

9 12 Ballston Spa Stakes 400,000 Grade 2 Post Time: 6:20PM ET Fillies & Mares 1 1/16 Miles Turf Miss Temple City Stands Apart Stan Salter, Laurel Park & MD Horse Radio Analysis: Even-money on LADY ELI off nearly a 14-month layoff and facing older horses for the first time? No thanks, I ll pass. Yes, based on her resume as a 2 & 3-year-old, she is the deserved favorite. However, she had better be ready for a major league slugfest, as she faces some very talented and accomplished older fillies & mares today, including MISS TEMPLE CITY, ONUS and SENTIERO ITALIA. Main Contenders: I think MISS TEMPLE CITY is sitting on a big effort. Her most recent race in the Grade 1 Diana was huge, as she got stuck behind a wall of horses turning for home but still managed to rally for fourth, beaten only a neck in a blanket finish. Her win against older males at Keeneland in April earned her a 108 Beyer, and if she runs anything close to that, LADY ELI will wish she was still running against 3-year-olds. ONUS chased a fast pace last out in the Grade 1 Diana and didn t embarrass herself at all, only beaten about two lengths. I think she takes a step forward today and runs a lifetime best race for strong connections. Finally, like I mentioned, LADY ELI is in deep off the layoff and against this field, especially at a track nicknamed the Graveyard of Champions. But if you like her, don t let me talk you off this filly who is 6-for-6 with two Grade 1 wins. Value Plays: SENTIERO ITALIA is great value at 9/2 on the morning line for Kiaran McLaughlin. She actually beat my top pick, MISS TEMPLE CITY, last summer in the Grade 2 Lake Placid here at Saratoga and also won her seasonal debut on Opening Day at the Spa against allowance horses. 50 Wagering Strategy: 10 Win/Place/Show: MISS TEMPLE CITY (30) 5 Exacta Box: MISS TEMPLE CITY and ONUS (10) 5 Exacta Box: MISS TEMPLE CITY and SENTIERO ITALIA (10) Stan s 1. MISS TEMPLE CITY 2. ONUS 3. SENTIERO ITALIA 4. LADY ELI Last 5 Ballston Spa Winners: 2015 Dacita (CHI) J. Castellano 2014 Abaco J. Ortiz 2013 Laughing (IRE) J. Lezcano 2012 Zagora (FR) R. Dominguez 2011 Daveron (GER) E. Castro Wire-to-Wire Ballston Spa Winners: (Since 1991, Odds to 1) Year Horse Odds 2013 Laughing (IRE) My Typhoon (IRE) License Fee Pleasant Temper One Dreamer Aurora Paris Opera 6.20 The Johnny & Javy Show : John Velazquez (4-for-19) and Javier Castellano (2-for-6) have combined to win the Ballston Spa six times. Velazquez s Win ROI in the race is 2.39, while Castellano s is a robust Heating Up: Already regarded as one of the world s top trainers, Chad Brown is 2-for-7 in the Ballston Spa, with a Win ROI of He won last year s edition with Dacita (17.00) and also took the 2012 version with Zagora (5.00). Slim Pickins: Since 1991, only one horse Salve Germania in 2009 won the race at odds of 9/1 or higher. She paid when Javier Castellano guided her to victory.