DERBY COUNTDOWN. Withers Holy Bull Robert B. Lewis SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3, Tiz Mischief Photo by Barbara D. Livingston

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1 SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2018 CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Withers Holy Bull Robert B. Lewis Tiz Mischief Photo by Barbara D. Livingston

2 RACE 1 SUPER LOOKS Withers Super Looks BY BYRON KING EIGHTH RACE Probable Post 4:20 EST 1 1/8 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. Withers (Grade 3). Purse: $250,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 4 Avery Island...Bravo J Firenze Fire...McCarthy T Marconi...Franco M Bal Harbour...Carmouche K Coltandmississippi...Alvarado J California Night...Hernandez R M PICKS: MIKE BEER Avery Island Marconi Firenze Fire KENNY PECK Avery Island Firenze Fire California Night CHUCK KUEHHAS Bal Harbour Avery Island Firenze Fire 1 FIRENZE FIRE ( $539,100, 20 Kentucky Derby Points) Best Beyer: 90 Jockey: Trevor McCarthy Pedigree: Posiedon s Warrior My Every Wish (Langfuhr) Formulator Facts: His family s past-performance lines within Formulator suggest he is already outrunning a sprinter s pedigree. His pop was a Grade 1 winner at six furlongs, and his dam retired after two starts racing in maiden claimers going three-quarters. Outlook: He is the established class, having won the Grade 1 Champagne over eventual Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and champion Good Magic, and has the benefit of a race this year, coming over this track when he won the Jerome over a tiring, muddy strip. Obviously, this race differs from the Champagne and Jerome in terms of distance, coming around two turns and 1 1/8 miles. He performed poorly in his one race going beyond a mile and around two turns in the Breeders Cup, finishing seventh, beaten 20 lengths, though he did run a temperature briefly in the days before the race. Value: He is 9-5 on the morning line and seems likely to start close to that price while vying for favoritism with Avery Island. 2 MARCONI ( $48,000, 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 74 Jockey: Manny Franco Pedigree: Tapit Ponche de Leona (Ponche) Formulator Facts: Since Irad Ortiz departed for Florida, Franco has been aboard six of trainer Todd Pletcher s 11 Aqueduct starters since the first of the year, winning with one of those mounts at $ odds. The others were unplaced. Outlook: The jury is still out on Firenze Fire s ability to stay 1 1/8 miles, but not so with this colt. He raced exclusively at 1 1/8 miles in two starts as a juvenile, finishing second before coming away a 5 1/2-length winner. Now he kicks off his 3-year-old season, and the placement here is logical given his success over the trip. But he has to really step up his game from a speed-figure and class perspective, as he has just a career-best 74 Beyer and has yet to face anything but maidens. Being by Tapit and a half to Breeders Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man, and having cost $2 million at auction at Keeneland in September 2016, he obviously has major pedigree power. Value: He seems clear to start as the third favorite behind Avery Island and Firenze Fire but could drift up from his 3-1 morning line. 3 BAL HARBOUR ( $155,675, 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 82 Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche Pedigree: First Samurai Casino Transaction (Carson City) Formulator Facts: Pletcher s record with 3-year-olds in graded stakes on dirt at Aqueduct pales in comparison to how he does elsewhere an indication that his New York runners are second stringers relative to those he races in Florida. He is 7 for 55 with such runners over the past five years, and a couple of those winners came during the fall meets before much of the barn went south. Outlook: He proved no match for Mask in the Mucho Macho Man last out at Gulfstream, but this horse ran well in defeat to handle the rest, including the well-regarded third-place finisher, Dak Attack. This one has yet to go beyond a mile but has finished well at that distance, and

3 Withers Super Looks CONTINUED his one two-turn start at the one-mile distance did result in a victory in the Sapling. Still, being out of a Carson City mare who never won beyond six furlongs, his pedigree isn t as geared toward the 1 1/8-mile distance as others in the lineup. Value: Coming out of races in Florida, he may take action as the fresh face and get knocked down slightly from his 6-1 morning line. 4 AVERY ISLAND ( $215,332, 4 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 83 Jockey: Joe Bravo Pedigree: Street Sense Kinda Spicy (A.P. Indy) Formulator Facts: McLaughlin has surprisingly won just a single graded race for 3-year-old dirt horses at Aqueduct over the past five years though it was a big one, with Frosted in the 2015 Wood Memorial. A number have run well in defeat, however, such as True Timber, who was second in this race last year after a third in the Jerome. Outlook: He lost the Remsen but lost little in defeat with a second to Catholic Boy, who is on just about everyone s top-10 list for the Kentucky Derby. He also gained valuable experience in the race, drafting behind horses after being wrangled off the pace a trip in contrast to the smooth victories he enjoyed on the lead in a maiden race and in the Nashua last year. His works suggest that he s ready for his return, and he figures to enjoy a favorable trip, likely sitting just off expected pacesetter California Night. Value: Probable to vie for favoritism with Firenze Fire and start close to his 8-5 morning-line price. 5 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI ( $90,637, 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 77 Jockey: Junior Alvarado Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile Selva (Forest Wildcat) Formulator Facts: When the public dismisses a Pletcher trainee the probable case with this horse it typically is correct in its assessment. Dirt horses starting for him at Aqueduct at odds of 10-1 or greater are 2 for 94 over the past five years. Outlook: He needs to move forward to challenge, having already been defeated by Bal Harbour a couple times and Firenze Fire most recently. Perhaps he can if he catches a fast track, a surface he seemingly prefers over wet surfaces. Both of his wins came on fast tracks, though going just seven furlongs. One has to suspect he is in here because of a lack of other desirable racing options. He has already won a first-level allowance, so Pletcher really has no choice but to run him in a stakes race, and a stakes at Aqueduct is better for him than one in south Florida. Value: Will likely be cold on the tote board following a third in the Jerome and with some new shooters coming to town; 12-1 on the line. 6 CALIFORNIA NIGHT ( $36,000, 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 75 Jockey: Rafael Hernandez Pedigree: Midnight Lute Moon over Malibu (Malibu Moon) Formulator Facts: Trainer Mike Maker is rarely this aggressive with a first-out maiden winner. Over the past five years, merely three such types have returned in graded stakes for him, and only 14 ran in any kind of stakes race. The one winner of the bunch, Right On Kitten, was 3-5 odds in the race she won, the La Senorita at Retama Park. Outlook: His strength is speed. He won his lone start on the lead at Aqueduct on Dec. 10 when sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs, and the lead looks like his for the taking once again, with this race drawing mostly stalkers and closers. It seems improbable that any riders on opposing horses are going to want to test this horse early, knowing he is a longshot coming out of a maiden sprint. Easy lead or no, it is difficult to envision him having the foundation beneath him to withstand Avery Island, Firenze Fire, and others going 1 1/8 miles in his first stakes assignment. Value: Given the daunting task of routing for the first time and running in a graded stakes race in his second start, he may even go higher than his 15-1 morning line, even in a short field. HOW I M PLAYING: Avery Island is the pick and warrants support in the win pool. And though Firenze Fire may not be as effective around two turns as one, he still warrants use underneath in the exacta, as does Bal Harbour to a lesser degree. The suspicion is that the underlay figures to be maiden winner Marconi, who will get bet off his $2 million purchase price and flashy pedigree.

4 RACE 1 CHART Withers Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Firenze Fire 8-5 Marconi 9-5 Bel Harbour 3-1 Avery Island 6-1 Coltandmississippi 12-1 California Night 15-1 Track s morning line odds AVERAGE WINNING BEYER FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2013: Revolutionary, : Samraat, : Far From Over, : Sunny Ridge, : El Areeb, 92

5 RACE 1 PACE PROJECTION Withers Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS The Pace: The race features a good mix of running styles, with running styles of Leader, Speed, Tracker, and Midpack represented. Upgrades: California Night (#6) is shown on a clear early lead after an easy wireto-wire win in his debut. He stretches out here, but being the controlling speed is always an advantage. Downgrades: None all the horses in the field have shown some tactical speed and/or versatility in running style.

6 RACE 2SUPER LOOKS Holy Bull Super Looks BY ANDREW CHAMPAGNE TWELFTH RACE Probable Post 5:49 EST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. HolyBull (Grade 2). Purse: $350,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 1 Enticed...Rosario J Tiz Mischief...Albarado R J Mississippi...Leparoux J R Free Drop Billy...Saez L Audible...Castellano J J Pony Up...Velazquez J R Hollywood Star...Ortiz I Jr Aequor...Lezcano J Master Manipulator...Ortiz J L Bandito...Zayas E J Tip Sheet...Jaramillo E PICKS: MIKE WELSCH Tiz Michief Free Drop Billy Enticed KENNY PECK Enticed Mississippi Pony Up BYRON KING Audible Enticed Tiz Michief 1 ENTICED ( , 12 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Jockey: Joel Rosario Pedigree: Medaglia d Oro It s Tricky (Mineshaft) Formulator Facts: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and Rosario are 0 for 16 together dating back to July of last year. Their last win together in a dirt route came with Sticksstatelydude in the 2016 Discovery. Outlook: Everything about this colt s pedigree says he ll get better with age, and that s how he s been managed by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Rather than rush him to the Breeders Cup Juvenile off of a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Champagne, McLaughlin opted to send Enticed to the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, where he prevailed by a head over Tiz Mischief (who also shows up in this spot). Value: Enticed is certainly one of the ones to fear, especially if he s grown and matured since we last saw him two months ago. 2 FREE DROP BILLY ( , 10 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 85 Jockey: Luis Saez Pedigree: Union Rags Trensa (Giant s Causeway) Formulator Facts: Trainer Dale Romans and Saez are 6 or 21 together this meet at Gulfstream Park with a positive ROI ($2.10). Outlook: He flopped when sent off at 7-1 in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but had compiled a strong résumé prior to that uncharacteristic dud. He showed he could get two turns with a win in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, and before that ran second to the talented Sporting Chance in the Grade 1 Hopeful. Note that DRF s Marty McGee reported Monday it s likely either Free Drop Billy or Hollywood Star will scratch and await next weekend s Sam F. Davis at Tampa. Value: Draw a line through the Juvenile, and you have a logical exotics contender. Despite the likely race shape not necessarily playing to his strengths, his best shot almost certainly gets him a piece of this. 3 MASTER MANIPULATOR ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Jockey: Jose Ortiz Pedigree: Tale of the Cat Whatdreamsaremadeof (Graeme Hall) Formulator Facts: Trainer Eric Guillot is 0 for 22 the past four years with last-out winners. Outlook: It all came together for him last time out, when he wired a field of maidens going this route over a sloppy track last month. Ortiz riding back is certainly a plus, but the last time Master Manipulator tried high-quality opposition was in the Grade 1 Champagne, where he beat just one rival home and was thumped by more than 28 lengths. Additionally, it wasn t like they were going very fast early last time, and he only had to beat five other horses. Value: It s tough to see him having improved enough since the Champagne to do well against this type of competition. He may be prominent early, but it s hard to envision him as anything more than a pace factor. 4 AUDIBLE ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Jockey: Javier Castellano Pedigree: Into Mischief Blue Devil Bel (Gilded Time) Formulator Facts: Trainer Todd Pletcher and Castellano are 1 for their last 16 in graded stakes races on dirt. Their lone such win since mid-april came with Madefromlucky in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup at Parx.

7 Holy Bull Super Looks CONTINUED Outlook: A $500,000 purchase, he jogged against open company last time out at Aqueduct for his powerhouse connections. There are still some questions to answer, especially given that he beat just three others that day and this is his first start in a stakes race. However, he s shown professionalism in each of his three outings and runs like a horse that should love two turns. Value: His victories came against New York-breds and in a short field in a race rained off the turf. If you like him, chances are you won t get much of a price given the presence of Pletcher and Castellano. 5 BANDITO ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 65 Jockey: Edgard Zayas Pedigree: Creative Cause Rafaelini (Bernardini) Formulator Facts: Trainer Dale Romans and Zayas are 0 for 9 together over the past five years, with just one in-themoney finish. Outlook: He showed speed and stopped badly in his first start against winners, which came in the Grade 2 Remsen. Prior to that, he graduated in an off-the-turf event at Keeneland, and while he deserves credit for winning a two-turn race at such an early juncture, that was in the slop, and it doesn t seem like he beat much. Value: Dale Romans has several promising closers in here, and it wouldn t be surprising if he opted to use this one as a rabbit (especially given the relative lack of serious early zip to be found elsewhere). I can t endorse him on his own. 6 HOLLYWOOD STAR ( , 4 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 76 Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Pedigree: Malibu Moon Hollywood Story (Wild Rush) Formulator Facts: Trainer Dale Romans and Ortiz are 4 for 13 the past five years on dirt with a $4.18 ROI, but are 0 for 6 together in the past three years. Outlook: He was never seriously involved in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, where he was forced to break from the outside post in a 12-horse field, but he did rally mildly to finish sixth. Prior to that, he was second in a pair of graded stakes races, and he s got several flashy local workouts ahead of this race. As mentioned earlier, this one may scratch in favor of the Sam F. Davis. Value: As a true one-run closer, he may need more pace than he ll get, and he almost certainly needs to run a career-best race to be a factor. However, the local work tab is encouraging, and it wouldn t be shocking if he ran on late to round out the tri or super. 7 TIZ MISCHIEF ( , 4 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 82 Jockey: Robby Albarado Pedigree: Into Mischief Indivia (Tiznow) Formulator Facts: Progeny of Indivia are 5 for 18 in races run at a mile to 1 3/16 miles. Outlook: He did everything but win last time out in a real acid test. He broke slowly from post 12 in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and was put to a drive fairly early in the race, falling short by a head. His workouts since coming to Florida have been sharp, and if he can turn some of the morning zip to tactical speed in the afternoon, he could sit a dream trip. Value: Of the four Romans trainees, this is the one I feel strongest about. He ll have to battle Enticed, who edged him last time out, and that rival does draw a better post given the short run into the first turn, but there are definitely things to like here. 8 PONY UP ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Jockey: John Velazquez Pedigree: Aikenite A. P. Petal (A.P. Indy) Formulator Facts: A. P. Petal is also the dam of S maverlous, a nine-time winner and earner of more than $685,000 best known for winning the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap in Outlook: It s tough to knock a horse that s never finished worse than second. He took a step forward last time out, when he missed by just a neck in the Kitten s Joy Stakes (won by graded stakes winner Flameaway). With Castellano opting to ride stablemate Audible, Velazquez hops aboard, but this one is a tricky read since his last three races have come on turf. Value: From a Beyer standpoint, he fits, but it s tough to translate how he ll run on dirt against this bunch after he s spent so much time on the grass. 9 TIP SHEET ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 78 Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo Pedigree: Brethren Jitterbug Blues (Pleasant Tap) Formulator Facts: Trainer Stanley Gold is 2 for 41 at Gulfstream this meet, and 0 for 18 in local route races. Outlook: He stumbled badly in an allowance last time out, but salvaged third behind a pair of high-quality runners (one of which also shows up in this spot). His wins came in a maiden claimer at Gulfstream last summer and an optional claimer/starter allowance run in the slop at Gulfstream Park West. Value: He d have to step it up considerably against this bunch and will likely be one of the longest shots on the board.

8 Holy Bull Super Looks CONTINUED 10 AEQUOR ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 78 Jockey: Jose Lezcano Pedigree: Flatter Lila Paige (Cryptoclearance) Formulator Facts: Trainer Gustavo Delgado is 1 for his last 18 with dirt horses stretching out from sprints to routes. Outlook: He certainly seems to be the race s most likely pacesetter. He s shown ample early speed in four sprint races, although he s gone 0 for 2 against stakes opposition. His pedigree indicates two turns may be within his scope, but he d likely need to take a sizable step forward to make a splash in these waters. Value: He ll likely be gunned to the front from his outer post, which isn t an attractive proposition for any horse at this route, let alone one trying two turns for the first time. I prefer others. 11 MISSISSIPPI ( , 0 Kentucky Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Jockey: Julien Leparoux Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile Katz Me If You Can (Storm Cat) Formulator Facts: Trainer Mark Casse has won with 6 of his last 12 dirt routers bet to 10-1 or lower in their second start off a layoff of 45 days or more. Outlook: Much was expected from this $700,000 purchase, and while he disappointed in his debut, he came back with a solid maiden win at Churchill Downs and a second behind the ultra-talented Noble Indy in his first start against winners. Based on those credentials, he s one of the ones to beat, but the post position is a real buzzkill, especially with the short run into the first turn. Value: Mississippi does possess tactical speed, and while he may be wide going around the first turn, he could wind up in a perfect spot waiting for front-runners to come back to the field. If that scenario materializes, he could be in good shape turning for home with a short stretch to navigate. HOW I D PLAY IT I need to offer two scenarios here, since it s possible Free Drop Billy scratches. If he runs, I must use him in some capacity, even though he s not necessarily one of my key horses. In that circumstance, I m keying Enticed and Mississippi on top in exactas, with Free Drop Billy and Tiz Mischief underneath. If Free Drop Billy scratches, I ll simply use that money to box my three other horses. In both cases, I ll also box my top two selections on their own, and those will be the two horses I ll focus on in horizontal wagers as well. I m against Audible, and I m hoping I can create a bit of value by playing against a horse that may be overbet due to both the margin of victory last time out and his connections. THE BET $5 exacta part-wheel: 1, 11 /1, 2, 7, 11 ($30) $5 exacta box: 1-11 ($10) or $5 exacta box: 1, 7, 11 ($30) $5 exacta box: 1, 11 ($10)

9 RACE 2 CHART Holy Bull Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Enticed 3-1 Free Drop Billy 4-1 Master Manipulator 5-1 Audible 6-1 Bandito 6-1 Hollywood Star 8-1 Tiz Mischief 12-1 Pony Up 15-1 Tip Sheet 20-1 Aequor 20-1 Mississippi 30-1 Track s morning line odds AVERAGE WINNING BEYER FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2013: Itsmyluckyday, : Cairo Prince, : Upstart, : Mohaymen, : Irish War Cry, 101

10 RACE 2 PACE PROJECTION Holy Bull Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS The Pace: A fast pace is expected due to the presence of two horses with the Leader running style, Aequor (#10) and Mississippi (#11). Three others are listed as Tracker horses that prefer to be in close attendance of the pace. The two main speed horses drawing outside with a short run to the first turn and the large field size further support the notion the pace will be taxing. Upgrades: The top TimeformUS Late Pace Ratings in the field belong to Tip Sheet (#9), Tiz Mischief (#7), and Audible (#4). A few others that don t need to be near the front that have shown enough talent to be considered include Free Drop Billy (#2) and Enticed (#1) Downgrades: Aequor and Mississippi along with Master Manipulator (#3) would probably prefer things to be easier on the front end. Note: Gulfstream Park s 1 1/16-mile races start close to the first turn and use an alternate finish line that shortens the stretch. Any pace advantage that off-pace runners may possess is often partially negated by the course layout.

11 RACE 3 SUPER LOOKS Robert B. Lewis Super Looks BY RON GIERKINK FIFTH RACE Probable Post 2:30 PST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. RBLewis (Grade 3). Purse: $150,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 7 Peace...Smith M E Shivermetimbers...Bejarano R Lombo...Prat F Pepe Tono...Roman E A Inscom...Baze T C Ayacara...Desormeaux K J Regulate...Talamo J Dark Vader...Elliott S Blame the Rider...Gutierrez Mario Blinkers On: Ayacara, Peace PICKS: BRAD FREE Ayacara Peace Pepe Tono RICH WROBLE Lombo Dark Vader Ayacara MICHAEL HAMMERSLY Peace Shivermetimbers Ayacara 1 AYACARA ( , 1 Derby point) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Pedigree: Violence Pacific Highway (Pulpit) Formulator Facts: In the past five years, trainer Keith Desormeaux is 21 for 126 (17 percent) with turf-to-dirt runners, with a $1.52 return on investment. When adding blinkers during that time, he s 4 for 23 (17 percent, $1.32 ROI). Outlook: His best race arguably was a distant fourth behind the talented twosome of Bolt d Oro and Solomini in the Grade 1 FrontRunner on Sept. 30. Following a twomonth layoff, he closed late to finish a lapped-on second in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes on the Tapeta at Golden Gate on Dec. 2. He tried another surface most recently when a non-threatening sixth in the Eddie Logan Stakes on the grass. Getting back on the dirt should be just what the doctor ordered for the son of a hot young sire, and he figures to mount a bid from the back of the pack after saving ground early. Value: In a race that reads more like a first-level allowance than a stakes, he could be a major player, and the price should be on the square side. 2 PEPE TONO ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 80 Trainer: Victor Garcia Pedigree: Bodemeister Cassis Royale (A.P. Indy) Formulator Facts: In the last five years, Garcia is 1 for 5 in graded stakes, with a return on investment of $2.60. With last-out maiden winners during that time, he s 2 for 17 (12 percent), with an ROI of $1.02. Outlook: By the sire of last year s Kentucky Derby winner (Always Dreaming), and out of an A.P. Indy mare, the deep closer has derby written all over his pedigree. Following a belated sixth in his seven-furlong debut, he came wide from left field to land a maiden special in his second and most recent excursion in a two-turn mile. Value: His laid-back style makes him an ideal candidate for the lower rungs of intra-race wagers, and he could be along for all the spoils if the two potential speeds go nuts on the front end. 3 DARK VADER ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 76 Trainer: Peter Eurton Pedigree: Tale of Ekati Dark Obsession (Grand Slam) Formulator Facts: Eurton s stable has taken off in recent years. He s 19 for 105 (18 percent) in graded stakes over the past five years, with a profitable return on investment of $3.15. In 3-year-old graded stakes during that period, he s 4 for 33 (12 percent, $3.42 ROI). Outlook: The Ohio-bred s lone stakes start in a restricted event at Belterra was disappointing, as was a subsequent turf experiment at Del Mar on Nov. 1. He has worked quickly at Santa Anita since graduating with determination by a nose traveling a mile at Los Alamitos on Dec. 14 Value: Unlike most of his opposition, he has yet to crack 80 on the Beyer scale, and might not be ready for prime time just yet. Taking a wait-and-see approach. 4 LOMBO ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Michael Pender Pedigree: Graydar Burg Berg (Johannesburg) Formulator Facts: Pender scored with 8 of 97 (8 percent) of his sprint/route runners going back five years, with a

12 Robert B. Lewis Super Looks CONTINUED return on investment of $0.88. He s 1 for 2 with stretchouts in graded stakes ($2.30 ROI) since then. Outlook: He s improved dramatically with each subsequent outing, capped by a third-out maiden victory going three quarters in which he pressed a lively pace before drawing clear. There is sufficient stamina in his pedigree to handle the stretchout to 1 1/16 miles. Graydar won the Grade 1 Donn Handicap and Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap the average win distance of his progeny is 6.4 furlongs. Burg Berg was a versatile stakes winner who found the mark going long. Value: He figures to be on the lead, in his first venture around two turns, with Shivermetimbers breathing down his neck. The old adage that one should strive to get fair value on any horse trying something new applies here, and anything under 10-1 would be an underlay. 5 SHIVERMETIMBERS ( , 1 Derby point) Best Beyer: 89 Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby Sealaunch (Unbridled s Song) Formulator Facts: Going back five years, the Hall-of-Famer Hollendorfer possesses a 23 percent strike rate (40 for 171) in 3-year-old graded stakes, with a return on investment of $1.68. When you narrow it down to Santa Anita sophomore stakes during that time, he s 23 for 94 (24 percent, $1.53 ROI). Outlook: Off a prominent fourth behind McKinzie in the Grade 3 Sham, he s arguably the class of this field, and note that he defeated the next-out winner Peace when winning a maiden race going a mile at Del Mar. He got a Beyer in the 80s in all four of his outings, which gives him an edge on his opposition in that department. He s getting another rider switch, to Rafael Bejarano, who is 2 for 13 at the meet for this deep barn. He should have a good trip pressing the probable pacesetter, Lombo, and can put that one away before holding off the live closers. Value: He s one of the favorites, but chalk players shouldn t accept less than 2-1 on him. 6 INSCOM ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Simon Callaghan Pedigree: Distorted Humor Lemon Kiss (Lemon Drop Kid) Formulator Facts: Callaghan is 0 for 7 with turf/dirt starters in graded stakes over the last five years, but three of those runners made the board. In 3-year-old graded stakes during that time, he s 6 for 45 (13 percent, $1.31 ROI). Outlook: He s been campaigned as a turf expert since bombing as the odds-on favorite at first asking on dirt at Los Alamitos, which isn t surprising when you consider that he s a half-brother to Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap victor Lochte. He had a troubled/wide trip the only time he failed to crack the top two on the grass in the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille, after which he just missed as the favorite in the Eddie Logan Stakes. Value: His connections appear to be taking one last shot on the dirt to see what they have before going back to the turf. A price of at least 8-1 would be acceptable on the $850,000 yearling purchase. 7 PEACE: ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Richard Mandella Pedigree: Violence Queen s Triomphe (Cure the Blues) Formulator Facts: In the past five years, the papa Mandella is 8 for 34 (24 percent) in 3-year-old graded stakes, with a return on investment of $2.75. With blinkers on during that time, he s 5 for 37 (14 percent, $1.42 ROI). Outlook: He gave the more experienced Shivermetimbers a run for his money while narrowly losing a fast onemile maiden special second time out at Del Mar. He was a workmanlike maiden winner last time over Regulate, who came back to fail miserably as the favorite in another two-turn maiden special at Santa Anita. Value: A rare runner adding blinkers off a victory, he s retaining Big Money Mike Smith, who s 1 for 8 at the meet for Mandella. That s a positive sign, so give Peace a chance if he isn t among the favorites. 8 REGULATE ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 74 Trainer: Bob Baffert Pedigree: Quality Road Modulate (Mizzen Mast) Formulator Facts: Baffert is 23 for 89 (26 percent) in 3-yearold graded stakes at Santa Anita going back five years, with a return on investment of $1.90. When you filter that category down to males, he s 18 for 60 (30 percent, $2.10 ROI). Outlook: The Juddmonte Farm homebred looked like a fairly promising prospect after giving Peace a run for his money when second in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special Dec. 30, but then came up empty in a bounce-like effort as the favorite 20 days later. Baffert has won this event six times, but never with a maiden, and this colt certainly isn t the second coming of American Pharoah. Value: He s competing on short rest off a dreadful performance, and is light on Beyers compared to all the others. Baffert fans might take a flyer at 20-1 or higher. 9 BLAME THE RIDER ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 75 Trainer: Doug O Neill Pedigree: Jimmy Creed Shiny Sheet (Press Card) Formulator Facts: O Neill is 5 for 89 (6 percent, $1.22 ROI) in 3-year-old graded stakes at Santa Anita over the past five

13 Robert B. Lewis Super Looks CONTINUED years. Whittling it down to males, he s 5 for 55 (9 percent, $1.98 ROI). Outlook: The maiden has improved significantly with each subsequent race. With blinkers added two weeks ago, he was a belated third behind Pepe Tono in his first venture around two turns in a one-mile maiden special. O Neill has won this stakes twice, most recently in 2012 with future Kentucky Derby winner I ll Have Another, who was ridden by Mario Gutierrez. His outside draw could lead to a wide trip, and it would be surprising to see him crack the top three. Value: O Neill occasionally pops with a huge longshot in a stakes, but this one appears to be in way over his head. At best, he could round out the super. Peace s 3-1 morning line price is an underlay, and Shivermetimbers is a 7-2 overlay on the line. I ll bet Shivermetimbers to win at 3-1 or higher, and key him on top in exactas with Ayacara, Pepe Tono, and Lombo. HOW I D PLAY

14 RACE 3 CHART Robert B. Lewis Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Ayacara 8-1 Pepe Tono 6-1 Dark Vader 10-1 Lombo 5-1 Shivermetimbers 7-2 Inscom 6-1 Peace 3-1 Regulate 8-1 Blame the Rider 15-1 Track s morning line odds AVERAGE WINNING BEYER FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2013: Flashback, : Candy Boy, : Dortmund, : Mor Spirit, : Royal Mo, 94

15 RACE 3 PACE PROJECTION Robert B. Lewis Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS The Pace: The Pace Projector indicates the pace is likely to be fast. With a Leader running style in the field along with five Trackers, the pace should be solid at a minimum. Two horses also are adding blinkers, which could result in even more speed than expected. Upgrades: Both Ayacara (#1) and Pepe Tono (#2) have shown very little early speed but could become contenders should the fast pace materialize. Downgrades: Lombo (#4) may have to deal with pressure sooner rather than later, with so much tactical speed in the race.

16 Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH 9/16/17... Iroquois /16M... Churchill Downs...The Tabulator /30/17... FrontRunner /16M... Santa Anita...Bolt d Oro /7/17... Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Firenze Fire /7/17... Breeders Futurity /16M... Keeneland...Free Drop Billy /4/17... BC Juvenile /16M... Del Mar...Good Magic /25/17... Kentucky Jockey Club /16M... Churchill Downs...Enticed /2/17... Remsen /8M... Aqueduct...Catholic Boy /9/17... Los Alamitos Futurity /16M... Los Alamitos...McKinzie /17/17... Springboard Mile... 1 mile... Remington Park...Greyvitos /6/18... Sham... 1M... Santa Anita...McKinzie /13/18... Lecomte... 1M 70 yds... Fair Grounds...Instilled Regard /13/18... Jerome... 1 mile... Aqueduct...Firenze Fire /15/18... Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park...Mourinho /3/18... Withers /8M... Aqueduct /3/18... Holy Bull /16M... Gulfstream /3/18... Robert B. Lewis /16M... Santa Anita /10/18... Sam F. Davis /16M... Tampa Bay Downs /17/18... Risen Star /16M... Fair Grounds /17/18... El Camino Real Derby /8M... Golden Gate /19/18... Southwest /16M... Oaklawn Park

17 Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH 3/3/18... Fountain of Youth /16M... Gulfstream /10/18... Gotham... 1M... Aqueduct /10/18... Tampa Bay Derby /16M... Tampa Bay Downs /10/18... San Felipe /16M... Santa Anita /17/18... Rebel /16M... Oaklawn /17/18... Jeff Ruby Steaks /8M... Turfway Park /24/18... Louisiana Derby /8M... Fair Grounds /25/18... Sunland Derby /8M... Sunland Park /31/18... UAE Derby /16M... Meydan /31/18... Florida Derby /8M... Gulfstream /7/18... Wood Memorial /8M... Aqueduct /7/18... Blue Grass /8M... Keeneland /7/18... Santa Anita Derby /8M... Santa Anita /14/18... Arkansas Derby /8M... Oaklawn Park /14/18... Lexington /16M... Keeneland

18 Kentucky Derby 2018 Point Standings (through 2/2/18) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS 1... Good Magic... Chad Brown $1,200, Firenze Fire... Jason Servis , McKinzie... Bob Baffert , Bolt d Oro... Mick Ruis , Solomini... Bob Baffert , Instilled Regard... Jerry Hollendorfer , Enticed... Kiaran McLaughlin , Free Drop Billy... Dale Romans , Greyvitos... Adam Kitchingman , Catholic Boy... Jonathan Thomas , The Tabulator... Larry Rivelli , Mourinho... Bob Baffert , Combatant... Steve Asmussen , Avery Island... Kiaran McLaughlin , Bravazo... D. Wayne Lukas , Hollywood Star... Dale Romans , Principe Guilherme... Steve Asmussen , Tiz Mischief... Dale Romans , Seven Trumpets... Dale Romans , All Out Blitz... Simon Callaghan , Snapper Sinclair... Steve Asmussen ,810 NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS Givemeaminit... Dallas Stewart , My Boy Jack... Keith Desormeaux , Lone Sailor... Tom Amoss , Tap Daddy... Steve Asmussen , Kingsville... Danny Pish , Take the One O One... Brian Koriner , Vouch... Arnaud Delacor , Coltandmississippi... Todd Pletcher , Promises Fullfilled... Dale Romans , Kowboy Karma... Larry Jones , Ayacara (GB)... Keith Desormeaux , Bode s Maker... Allen Milligan , Night Strike... Bret Calhoun , Lionite... Steve Asmussen , For Him... Mike Pender , Alkhaatam... Chad Brown , Ebben... Steve Margolis , High North... Brad Cox , Zing Zang... Steve Asmussen , Regalian... Chris Englehart , Shivermetimbers... Jerry Holldendorfer ,000 + Not Triple Crown nominated ++ Late Triple Crown nominee +++ Owner will pay $200,000 supplemental