SATURDAY, APRIL 15, 2017 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION. Classic Empire Photo by Barbara D. Livingston

Transcription

1 SATURDAY, APRIL 15, 2017 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Arkansas Derby Lexington Classic Empire Photo by Barbara D. Livingston

2 RACE 1 ANALYSIS Arkansas Derby Analysis BY MATT BERNIER The final major prep race for the 143rd Kentucky Derby is the $1 million Arkansas Derby, and in many ways it s the most important Derby prep. Unanimous 2-year-old champion Classic Empire makes the second start of his 3-year-old campaign, and he ll look to rebound in a big way following a subpar effort in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4. If he s able to redeem himself and get back on track, he will quickly reassume his position as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Classic Empire capped his 2-year-old season with a giant effort in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. The 102 Beyer Speed Figure he earned that day is far and away the fastest race any of the Arkansas Derby horses have run, and anything remotely close to that effort makes him strictly the horse to beat. Having said that, the Breeders Cup effort is a bit of an outlier on his page; he s never earned a Beyer higher than 90 in any of his five other starts. The other concern if you re a fan of Classic Empire is his fitness. This is a horse that s raced one time since November, and all things considered that one effort was a dud. We know what Classic Empire is capable of on his best day the question now becomes whether we get one of his best days on Saturday. Malagacy, trained by Todd Pletcher, has done nothing wrong in his three-race career, putting together an unbeaten record with a combined winning margin of nearly 30 lengths. Most recently Malagacy was a comfortable winner of the Rebel Stakes, the local prep race for the Arkansas Derby. Entering the Rebel, questions about distance limitations were fair regarding Malagacy, but he proved that 1 1/16 miles was well within his scope. Saturday he ll have to navigate 1 1/8 miles, and breaking from the outside post does him no favors. Look for Javier Castellano to use Malagacy s early speed to move him into a forward position entering the first turn. The remainder of the Arkansas Derby field outside the top two is a bit of a cluster. It s necessary to reach in order to make a case for many of the runners exiting the Rebel, and some of the new shooters have distance/surface/ class concerns. Of the Rebel also-rans, Untrapped, Petrov, and Sonneteer will likely take the majority of the interest. Untrapped will add blinkers for the first time in this race, but there are major distance questions looming over him. Petrov had a beautiful trip in the Rebel, sitting a few lengths off the pace before commencing a bid rounding the far turn. He ultimately flattened down the lane, adding to the growing narrative that he needs shorter distances to flourish. Sonneteer was a maiden entering the Rebel Stakes and still is, but that didn t stop him from making a sustained bid from the rear, shooting up the rail and winning a photo for second. He ll need to improve in order to win on Saturday. Lookin At Lee is a horse that should appreciate the added distance in the Arkansas Derby, but as is the case with all one-run closers, he s always going to be at the mercy of pace and trip. There doesn t appear to be a ton of early foot signed on here, but he may be one of the few runners entered that truly wants every bit of the nine furlongs. ELEVENTH RACE Probable Post 6:18 CDT 1 1/8 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. ArkDerby (Grade 1). Purse: $1,000,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 2 Classic Empire...Leparoux J R Malagacy...Castellano J J Untrapped...Smith M E Rockin Rudy...Gutierrez Mario Petrov...Santana R Jr Lookin At Lee...Contreras L Sonneteer...Desormeaux K J Conquest Mo Money...Carreno J Silver Dust...Lanerie C J Grandpa s Dream...Canchari A L Rowdy the Warrior...Quinonez L S One Dreamy Dude...Franco G Blinkers On: Silver Dust, Untrapped Blinkers Off: Rockin Rudy, One Dreamy Dude PICKS: MATT BERNIER Lookin At Lee Classic Empire Malagacy MARY RAMPELLINI Classic Empire Malagacy Untrapped KENNY PECK Petrov Classic Empire Malagacy BYRON KING Petrov Malagacy Classic Empire

3 RACE 1 SUPER LOOKS Arkansas Derby Super Looks BY PETER THOMAS FORNATALE ROCKIN RUDY ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 95 Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Pedigree: Midshipman Ruthie the Rocket (Confide) Formulator facts: Blinkers off in a graded stakes race worked wonders for Doug O Neill last weekend, when Irap won his maiden in the Blue Grass Stakes at Overall, he s 2 for 12 with the move, with four of those in the money. The other winner, Frank Conversation in the 2016 Twilight Derby, also was more than Outlook: It s not immediately apparent what this horse is doing in this race, but that s also the story of this year s Kentucky Derby chase, isn t it? We ve seen some strange results, so why not run a horse coming off a pair of seconds going down the hill in a major prep? As O Neill told DRF s Mary Rampellini, He s never been two turns. He s had some marathon works with the blinkers off and settled and finished well, so he ll run for the first time without blinkers. I m optimistic he ll run very well. The dam s foals are just 4 for 47 routing on dirt, with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 67. Value: There s not a lot here in terms of traditional handicapping, but history has shown that you can do worse than throwing a few bucks on O Neill with blinkers off in a graded stakes at 30-1-plus odds. CLASSIC EMPIRE ( , 32 Derby points) Best Beyer: 102 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Julien Leparoux Pedigree: Trappe Shot Exit Three (Giant s Causeway) Formulator facts: Mark Casse s numbers in graded stakes on dirt off layoffs of 60 to 180 days aren t pretty. He s just 1 for 25 with a $0.22 ROI. He has perhaps been a little unlucky in that sample, as eight of those runners (32 percent) have finished ITM. Outlook: The bad boy of the bunch. Speaking of bad, see his third in the Holy Bull last time. Excuses abounded during and after the last race (training mishap, foot abscess, back issue) but Casse has been raving about his recent work to DRF s Mike Welsch, saying the spectacular move gave him chills. Here s the thing: The old Classic Empire, the 2-year-old male champ who ran a 102 Beyer in a thrilling Breeders Cup Juvenile win against a good horse, wins this for fun. But there s a lot of water under the bridge since then, and it s not like he s going to be a longshot here, so the wise move is to play against. Value: I can t blame any who want to at least save with Classic Empire in the top spot, especially those with clever opinions elsewhere in the horizontals. But at least some of the play should leave him out entirely, including in the verticals. SILVER DUST ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 86 Trainer: Randy Morse Jockey: Corey Lanerie Pedigree: Tapit Filare l Oro (Hard Spun) Formulator facts: Morse is 23 for 171 with a $1.20 ROI with horses making their third starts off a layoff. His overall graded stakes numbers show the limitations of a small sample size. He s 2 for 16 for a $2.36 ROI, but none of the other 14 hit the board. Adding blinkers, he s 5 for 54 with a $0.65 ROI. Outlook: He s missed the board in the last two local preps for this, but he s back for more. He raced well enough last time to earn a career-best Beyer, and while he was fifth, he was beaten less than four lengths with legitimate trouble. The problem is that he doesn t stack up all that well against this field in terms of either his late pace or the Beyers. He ll need to improve massively, and the trainer s third-off-the-bench numbers and stats with blinkers don t suggest that that is all that likely. Value: He could run on for a small piece of the pie late but is tough to imagine in the exacta. PETROV ( , 8 Derby points) Best Beyer: 96 Trainer: Ron Moquett Jockey: Rafael Santana Jr. Pedigree: Flatter Saracina (Bertrando) Formulator facts: Moquett s runners have underperformed recently in graded stakes, compiling a record and a $0.12 ROI over the past five years. Outlook: Comes into this off three solid efforts in the local stakes, but he clearly has a bit to find with the best of these, several of whom have already beaten him. He owns tactical speed, which is usually an asset, but there is a lot of early pace in here. Then there s the matter of how he might turn the tables on Malagacy. While there isn t a pressing reason for him to do so, he will be a multiple of that one s price, and should Malagacy regress in his second start going long, this consistent performer could be in the mix at a good number. Value: At double-digit odds, he might be an interesting

4 Arkansas Derby Super Looks CONTINUED horse to play around with underneath and even a little on top in case the favorites falter. GRANDPA S DREAM ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 77 Trainer: Chris Hartmann Jockey: Alex Canchari Formulator facts: Hartmann generally does well with horses who won their maiden races last out: 22 for 85, with 52 percent ITM and a $2.15 ROI. But none of those was in graded stakes. Overall at the graded level, he s 3 for 22, with 32 percent ITM and a $1.68 ROI. Outlook: This spot looks like a reach for this recent maiden winner. Only one horse has run back since the last, and he neither won nor improved his figure. It s also notable that Grandpa s Dream was 21-1 even in the maiden race, so it s hard to imagine there is enough hidden talent for him to be a factor here. He won on the engine last time, but it s doubtful he ll be able to make the top against this group. Value: He looks to be an easy toss-out. LOOKIN AT LEE ( , 12 Derby points) Best Beyer: 86 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Luis Contreras Pedigree: Lookin At Lucky Langara Lass (Langfuhr) Formulator facts: Asmussen is 8 for 52 with 40 percent ITM in graded stakes with horses making their third start off a layoff. His overall third-off-the-layoff numbers are right in line with his tremendous baseline numbers of 20 percent winners and 50 percent ITM. Barn has won this race three times, most recently last year with Creator. Outlook: He made up some ground last time in a race that featured an average pace early, but the problems are twofold. The final time of the race wasn t that impressive, and the winner, Malagacy, wasn t losing ground to this closer despite having done a lot more running early on. Additionally, that lack of a strong finish calls into question how far he really wants to go. Value: He s a consistent performer who could be used in the bottom rungs of exotics at a big enough price (north of 20-1). SONNETEER ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 77 Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Pedigree: Midnight Lute Ours (Half Ours) Formulator facts: The Desormeaux brothers have a solid record together, 56 for 319 (18 percent), with 50 percent ITM and a $1.85 ROI. In graded stakes, those numbers stay excellent, 11 for 74, with 47 percent ITM and a $2.09 ROI. Outlook: Made a late run up the wood to just grab second at a huge price in the Rebel. The stars really had to align for him there, and the horses he finished just ahead of did more running than he did in trying to run down Malagacy. Still, there is more pace here than last time, and he s among the best closers in this bunch, and that could work to his advantage. He wouldn t be the first maiden to have an impact on this year s Kentucky Derby trail. Value: An interesting horse to include, especially underneath, at 10-1 or higher. ROWDY THE WARRIOR ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 80 Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Luis Quinonez Pedigree: Warrior s Reward Lovely Sage (Gentlemen) Formulator facts: In graded stakes at Oaklawn, Von Hemel is 3 for 21 (14 percent), with 33 percent ITM and a $1.81 ROI. Outlook: Won his maiden last September, and his form has stalled out since, as he recently failed to crack the exacta against restricted optional claimers. He s raced in open stakes three times, with a third and a fourth to his credit, but those efforts were way behind what will be needed to do the same here. Was horrible in the Southwest, and that could well be the case again here. He has shown just a little bit of finish in the past, so if you wanted to leave him in for fourth in case things really fall apart, I wouldn t blame you. Value: Potentially usable for third and fourth at north of 50-1 on the smallest of tickets. UNTRAPPED ( , 24 Derby points) Best Beyer: 91 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Mike Smith Pedigree: Trappe Shot Exit Three (Giant s Causeway) Formulator facts: Asmussen s numbers in graded stakes at Oaklawn are right in line with his excellent baseline numbers. He s 10 for 52, with 50 percent ITM and a $1.85 ROI. He s 0 for 7 when adding blinkers in graded stakes. Outlook: Asmussen reaches out for the best money rider around in Mike Smith. He had a slightly troubled trip last time, getting stuck in traffic early and making a nice move to get into contention when just missing the place loot. He was on short rest (21 days) there and has had an extra week to prepare for this. He s already shown that the gains he demonstrated in the Risen Star were real, and he could be poised to move forward again after essentially pairing up his speed figures in the last two starts. Value: He s finished on the board three times in a row in graded stakes, all at square prices. He seems like a good candidate to do so again and would offer value at north of 6-1.

5 Arkansas Derby Super Looks CONTINUED ONE DREAMY DUDE ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 69 Trainer: Jack Van Berg Jockey: Geovanni Franco Pedigree: First Dude Dreamy Dream (Whitney Tower) Formulator facts: Jack Van Berg is 0 for 12 in graded stakes, with none of them hitting the board. That stat looks poised to be to 0 for 13. Outlook: The hood comes off for this runner, who is in deep. All of his figures and form suggest he ll be overmatched. Van Berg has had plenty of success locally over the past couple of years, but this would be an incredible training feat. Value: Overbet even at expected triple-digit odds. CONQUEST MO MONEY ( , 20 Derby points) Best Beyer: 87 Trainer: Miguel L. Hernandez Jockey: Jorge Carreno Pedigree: Uncle Mo Stirring (Seeking the Gold) Formulator facts: Hernandez and Carreno have proved to be a potent combination, with a mark of 25 for 83 (30 percent) and 49 percent ITM. Their overall ROI is $2.09. Outlook: Sunland specialist owns a pair of listed stakes wins and was not disgraced in the Sunland Derby, but now he faces the crucial question faced by many a local phenom in various walks of life: Will his act play on the road? In truth, this might be the perfect place and the perfect year to try to answer that in the affirmative. He moved early and wide last time. The early fractions were fast there, and he briefly made the top before getting engulfed by the impressive winners. Those types of moves into a hot pace often portend improvement. He also has experience at the distance, which could be beneficial. Has the look of a surprise package. Value: I d be interested in using anywhere over 6-1, and you should get all of that and more. MALAGACY ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 97 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano Pedigree: Shackleford Classiest Gem (Dehere) Formulator facts: Like so many of his numbers, Todd Pletcher s stats the second time routing in a graded stakes are excellent, 18 for 79 (23 percent), with 49 percent ITM and a $2.00 ROI. Filtered for 3-year-olds on dirt, they get even better: 25 percent winners, 57 percent ITM, and a $2.54 ROI in a 40-start sample. Pletcher has won this race four times, most recently with Danza in Outlook: He had a perfect trip last time when easily overwhelming a field that included many of these same runners. Prior to that, he won a pair of Gulfstream sprints by 22 lengths combined. His pedigree seems to tilt toward going a bit shorter (on the dam side, he s had four siblings to race in North America all were winners and they are a combined 8 for 33 sprinting on dirt vs. 1 for 7 on dirt at one mile or longer). There is a lot more pace here than last time, and that, combined with distance questions, could be his undoing. Value: If the crowd goes overboard on the Classic Empire hype machine, perhaps he could sneak off at a usable price, but the gut says this is a race to try to find something in the longer odds range given the questions surrounding this guy and Classic Empire.

6 RACE 1 CHART Arkansas Derby Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Rockin Rudy 12-1 Classic Empire 8-5 Silver Dust 20-1 Petrov 12-1 Grandpa s Dream 30-1 Lookin At Lee 15-1 Sonneteer 15-1 Rowdy the Warrior 30-1 Untrapped 6-1 One Dreamy Dude 50-1 Conquest Mo Money 15-1 Malagacy 2-1 AVERAGE WINNING BEYER Track s morning line odds FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: : Danza, : American Pharoah, : Danza, : Overanalyze, : Bodemeister, 108

7 RACE 1 PACE PROJECTION Arkansas Derby Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS A full field of 12 is set to contest the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector anticipates a fast pace. Three horses in the field show a TimeformUS Running Style of Leader, and two others are labeled Trackers and have shown high speed. Rebel Stakes winner Malagacy (#12) is perfect in three tries and predicted to lead early but draws the far-outside post. Petrov (#4) and 2-year-old male Eclipse Award champion Classic Empire (#2) figure to be the ones he ll have to engage on the front end. The likely fast pace could point to the three horses with 100+ TimeformUS Late Pace Ratings Lookin At Lee (#6, 115), Sonneteer (#7, 105), and Rowdy Warrior (#8, 102). The Race Rating of 116 indicates that all of these would have to improve over prior races as none has reached the 110 level on TimeformUS Speed Figures as of yet. Sonneteer is the most likely of those. He is improving each time out, having actually increased his figure in every start of his nine-race career. His last race was a second-place finish in the Rebel, where he finished well ahead of Lookin At Lee.

8 RACE 2 ANALYSIS Lexington Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN Saturday s Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland probably won t have any impact on this year s Kentucky Derby, but it might provide a Preakness contender or two, and features several horses well bred for turf and synthetic races down the road. West Coast, trained by Bob Baffert, steps up following a pace-pressing maiden score at Santa Anita. While the $425,000 purchase looked good striding away in the stretch, it must be noted that he faced only two rivals as the prohibitive 1-20 favorite. Simply put, West Coast was supposed to win that race. He ll be forwardly placed once again under Martin Garcia in the Lexington and has the pedigree to be a good one. His dam, Caressing, captured the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. Time to Travel also boasts strong bloodlines as a full sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Hard Not to Like. Now under the tutelage of Michael Matz, Time to Travel received a solid 88 Beyer Speed Figure when wiring a field of maidens on the Florida Derby undercard. He drifted out considerably in the stretch of that race, however, and one must wonder how he ll adapt to moving out in distance while facing stronger pace pressure. No Dozing makes the third start of his form cycle for Arnaud Delacour, a trainer who won the Lexington in 2015 with Divining Rod. No Dozing failed to factor in two graded events at Tampa Bay Downs, and he steadied from in between horses entering the first turn of the Tampa Bay Derby last month before attempting a middle-race move into a strong pace. He drops in class on Saturday and can work out a good stalking trip in the second flight. Resiliency looks to be coming into his own for trainer Steve Asmussen. A rallying winner of an entry-level optional-claiming event at Fair Grounds on March 5, Resiliency can race closer to the pace if need be. Like Time to Travel and No Dozing, Resiliency has powerful turf influences in his female family. If he doesn t pop on Saturday, he s one to watch for future turf assignments. Souper Tapit doesn t have much speed, but he rolled past horses impressively in his career debut at Fair Grounds. Most recently, he was the lone 3-year-old against allowance-caliber older horses and failed to make up ground in a race dominated by speed types. Senior Investment finished first in three consecutive starts before passing a couple of tired horses late when sixth in the Louisiana Derby. A late-running son of Discreetly Mine, Senior Investment may need a strongerthan-expected pace to adequately set up his late bid. Convict Pike cracked the top three in his last five starts, but those races came on synthetic and turf. His two previous dirt races fail to excite. There are some angles here as he ll add blinkers for his second start of the form cycle, but he needs a strong Beyer boost in order to contend for top honors. Lookin At Blessing had no chance when chasing subsequent Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming. The pace of that race was glacial, and Lookin At Blessing tried to rally from last. He should get a better pace situation here. He s Munnie has won two of his last three races, all at the lesser Turf Paradise circuit. His most recent score was his turf debut. Perhaps grass will be his ultimate destination. Capt. Grider s recent form has been abysmal, but he did win his career debut at Keeneland. NINTH RACE Probable Post 5:34 EDT 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. Lexingtn (Grade 3). Purse: $200,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 10 West Coast...Prat F No Dozing...Rosario J Time to Travel...Prado E S Senior Investment...Hill C Resiliency...Geroux F Convict Pike...Cruz A Souper Tapit...Albarado R J Lookin At Blessing...Juarez N He s Munnie...Mena M Capt. Grider...Castanon J L Blinkers On: Convict Pike, West Coast PICKS: DAN ILLMAN No Dozing West Coast Time to Travel BYRON KING No Dozing Senior Investment West Coast KENNY PECK Souper Tapit Time to Travel Resiliency MARTY McGEE Senior Investment Souper Tapit Resiliency

9 RACE 2SUPER LOOKS Lexington Super Looks BY PETER THOMAS FORNATALE RESILIENCY ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 86 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Florent Geroux Pedigree: Malibu Moon Here Comes Ameila (War Chant) Formulator facts: Asmussen s numbers are typically good across the board but are weak in the third start off a layoff in 3-year-old graded stakes: 3 for 26 with a $1.16 ROI. Outlook: Won his a-other-than against a field that included impressive next-out winner Excitations and did so despite trouble. He projects to get a midpack, inside trip here but hasn t shown as much late kick as some of today s rivals. He s worked three times since the last and will have to have improved significantly to run with the best of these. Value: At the morning line of 6-1, he d be an underlay; looks more like a marginal contender. SOUPER TAPIT ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Robby Albarado Pedigree: Tapit Zo Impressive (Hard Spun) Formulator facts: In 3-year-old graded stakes on dirt, Mark Casse is just 3 for 85, with 34 percent ITM and a $0.33 ROI. He has, however, won two graded stakes at this meet, with Awesome Slew in the Commonwealth and Holding Gold in the Shakertown, not to mention Salty in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (one of the 3-year-olds), so perhaps the overall form of the barn trumps that stat. Outlook: Bombed as the even-money favorite last time in allowance company in his first start against elders. He s back among fellow sophomores here, but the level of difficulty still goes up. While this isn t the strongest Grade 3, it s still a graded stakes. Plodding type will need a lot of pace help, and it doesn t appear all that likely that he ll get it. Value: A longshot whom vertical players could use on the bottom rungs if longer than 10-1, but feels like he might be an underlay all the way around. SENIOR INVESTMENT ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: Ken McPeek Jockey: Channing Hill Pedigree: Discreetly Mine Plaid (Deputy Commander) Formulator facts: McPeek s numbers in Grade 3 stakes are moderate, 11 for 111 (10 percent), with 41 percent ITM and a $1.15 ROI. Outlook: Two-time winner found the going too tough last time in the Louisiana Derby and takes a drop to the Grade 3 level here that he should appreciate. He s another who projects to be far back early and will attempt to make a run late, but it s unclear if the race shape is going to allow that. Still, based on the impressive race two back, he has to be considered a peripheral contender at least, especially for underneath as he s probably the best closer who will be anywhere near the front at the pace call. Value: On the win end, 6-1 would be beatable, and overall, he looks more like one for underneath. NO DOZING ( , 9 Derby points) Best Beyer: 87 Trainer: Arnaud Delacour Pedigree: Union Rags Stay Awake (Pulpit) Formulator facts: Delacour has good numbers with horses coming off a layoff in general: 27 for 101, with 64 percent ITM. Filtering further for graded stakes, he s 2 for 6, with another two ITM and a positive ROI. On the negative side, he s 0 for 10 in graded stakes with runners who were off the board in their previous starts. Outlook: The form of last year s Remsen has been much maligned, and with good reason. That field combined is just since. It s hard to offer any excuse for his sleepy performance in the Tampa Bay Derby. That said, this horse once showed promise, and he s back in a much easier spot. His trainer is optimistic, telling DRF s Nick Fortuna that he s been doing terrific, and that he loves Keeneland. His paper backs up the former assertion: He was fourth here to 2-year-old male champ Classic Empire in the Breeders Futurity last fall. Value: At near his morning line of 4-1, I might be inclined to give him one more chance before signing the divorce papers. TIME TO TRAVEL ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Michael Matz Jockey: Edgar Prado Pedigree: Hard Spun Like a Gem (Tactical Cat) Formulator facts: Four times before, a horse has made a trainer switch to Matz and gone right into a graded stakes, and one of them won at 7-1, while the other three were off the board. In general, his first-after-the-switch numbers are low, just 2 for 28, with 29 percent ITM. Outlook: Talented runner has tons of upside, which he demonstrated in demolishing a maiden field at Gulfstream last out in a good time on the front end. This will be his first time going long, and he could improve for the added ground: The dam won at 10 furlongs, and dad could

10 Lexington Super Looks CONTINUED do it all (while some think of him as a sprinter, he ran good seconds in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic). His future could be turf, but his combination of skills makes him very dangerous here. Value: He s another I d consider in the 7-2 or 4-1 range. CONVICT PIKE ( , 10 Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Rusty Arnold Jockey: Angel Cruz Pedigree: Broken Vow Witchy One (Smart Strike) Formulator facts: Arnold is 0 for 4 going from synthetic to dirt in graded stakes, but his overall numbers are solid on the surface switch, 7 for 42, 57 percent ITM. Those numbers compare favorably to his baseline of 12 percent winners and 39 percent ITM. Outlook: He comes here off a third in an ugly-looking running of the Spiral, an effort comparable to his previous synthetic effort in Ocala, Fla. How will he handle dry dirt, which he hasn t seen since his irrelevant 4 1/2-furlong debut? That s an open question, but my best guess is that he ll be okay on it based on the ability he s flashed in the mornings. Jockey Cruz had success at Keeneland last year in graded stakes in limited opportunities. Value: A lot of question marks, but an interesting longshot if allowed to go off at 10-1 or more. CAPT. GRIDER ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 42 Trainer: Dante Zanelli Jockey: Jesus Castanon Pedigree: Astrology Majestic Dy (Dynaformer) Formulator facts: Other than this horse, Zanelli has had just two runners in the last five years, and both ran last in 10-horse fields. Outlook: Outlook? More like good luck. No principle of handicapping offers this overmatched runner any hope. HE S MUNNIE ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 79 Trainer: Dan McFarlane Jockey: Miguel Mena Pedigree: Munnings Brief Mark (Benchmark) Formulator facts: With four starters, Dan McFarlane has never had a runner on the board at Keeneland. In graded stakes, he s 0 for 7, but Hard Seven earned him a couple of thirds. Outlook: Experienced runner goes from a listed stakes on turf in Arizona into a much deeper pool. That race on the green was 14 points faster on the Beyer scale than what he s done on dirt, and even if that improvement had nothing to do with the surface, he s still got plenty to find to hang with the best of these. Value: A big longshot who would be a surprise to see on the board. LOOKIN AT BLESSING ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 78 Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Nik Juarez Pedigree: Lookin At Lucky Southern Accents (Birdstone) Formulator facts: Once a force on the Triple Crown train, Zito is just 3 for 45, with 31 percent ITM and a $1.31 ROI, in the past five years with 3-year-olds in graded stakes on dirt. Outlook: At first glance, this colt might appear to be overmatched, but there are some things to recommend him. Zito certainly has expertise in developing 3-year-olds despite what the stat above suggests. And his last race is actually really interesting. The winner, Always Dreaming, came back to win the Florida Derby impressively, and it seems that the reason the Beyer was so low there was a function of the incredibly slow pace that this guy was spinning his wheels trying to close into. He s probably not good enough to win, and it s not like this really sets up for him, but he could easily outrun what should be long odds. Value: A possible candidate to use extensively in bottomup tris and supers, securing him in third and fourth with logical runners above. WEST COAST ( , no Derby points) Best Beyer: 91 Trainer: Bob Baffert Pedigree: Flatter (Carressing Honor and Glory) Formulator fact: Baffert s numbers in 3-year-old dirt stakes off a maiden win are pretty good given the inherent difficulty of that move. He s 5 for 22 (23 percent), with 50 percent ITM. The ROI is low at $1.11 his baseline ROI is $1.59, but it s hard to hold that against him. When you re as famous as he is, you re going to get overbet. Outlook: Baffert said after the Santa Anita Derby that his dreams of capturing the 2017 Kentucky Derby went out the window with Mastery s injury, but as last year proved, a patient approach with 3-year-olds can yield big dividends (see: Arrogate). West Coast debuted back in February, losing to his entrymate in a race that s proven productive. Next out, he was less than visually awesome for a 1-20 shot in his maiden win, though he did manage to get the job done easily enough in the end. He s the outside of the possible speeds, and that could lead to a good trip. He s no doubt a top contender. Value: Price is the issue here as he still has a lot to prove and this isn t an easy task. I d put him in the same category odds-wise as No Dozing and Time to Travel, and that will make him an underlay. Still, a defensive use on many

11 RACE 2 CHART Lexington Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field BEYER SPEED FIGURES Resiliency 6-1 Souper Tapit 10-1 Senior Investment 5-1 No Dozing 4-1 Time to Travel 4-1 Convict Pike 8-1 Capt. Grider 50-1 Beyer too low for scale (42). He s Munnie 20-1 Lookin At Blessing 15-1 West Coast 3-1 Track s morning line odds AVERAGE WINNING BEYER FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2016: Collected, : Divining Rod, : Mr Speaker, : Winning Cause, : All Squared Away, 89

12 RACE 2 PACE PROJECTION Lexington Pace Projector US TimeformUS s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com. ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS A group of 10 is entered in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. The TimeformUS Pace Projector feels that the pace will be honest, with no special notations. Three horses are shown as likely to vie for the leading position. Time to Travel (#5) is given the slight nod with a 103 TimeformUS Early Pace Rating. He won his maiden last out in a sprint while going wire to wire but earned only a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. West Coast (#10, 102 TimeformUS Early Pace Rating) also comes into this contest off a maiden score. He battled through quick early fractions and pulled away to an easy score in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight contest at Santa Anita. Grade 2 Remsen Stakes runner-up No Dozing (#4, 100) is the third horse. The Remsen has been an anti-key race of sorts, with the field a combined 1 for 16 since, including No Dozing s two losses. West Coast ran a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his win last time, and that is tops in the field. If the pace turns out quicker than expected, Souper Tapit (#2) has much the best TimeformUS Late Pace rating, with a 117. Next is Senior Investment (#3), with a 103. The two have run TimeformUS Speed Figures of 103 and 106. Improvement and some pace help will be needed to find the winner s circle against those mentioned earlier as pace factors.

13 Road to the 2017 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH Sept Iroquois /16M... Churchill Downs...Not This Time Oct FrontRunner /16M... Santa Anita...Gormley Oct Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Practical Joke Oct Breeders Futurity /16M... Keeneland...Classic Empire Nov BC Juvenile /16M... Santa Anita...Classic Empire Nov Delta Downs Jackpot /16M... Delta Downs...Gunnevera Nov Remsen /8M... Aqueduct...Mo Town Nov Kentucky Jockey Club /16M... Churchill Downs...McCraken Nov Cattleya Sho*... 1M... Tokyo...Mont Saint Legame (JPN).n/a Dec CashCall Futurity /16M... Los Alamitos...Mastery Jan Jerome... 1 mile 70 yds... Aqueduct...El Areeb Jan Sham... 1M... Santa Anita...Gormley Jan Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park...Uncontested Jan Lecomte... 1M 70 yds... Fair Grounds...Guest Suite Feb Withers /16M... Aqueduct...El Areeb Feb Holy Bull /16M... Gulfstream...Irish War Cry Feb Robert B. Lewis /16M... Santa Anita...Royal Mo Feb Sam F. Davis /16M... Tampa Bay Downs...McCraken Feb El Camino Real Deby /8M... Golden Gate...Zakaroff Feb Hyacinth*... 1 M... Tokyo...Epicharis (JPN)... N/A Feb Southwest /16M... Oaklawn Park...One Liner

14 Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH Feb Risen Star /16M... Fair Grounds...Girvin March 4... Fountain of Youth /16M... Gulfstream...Gunnevera March 4... Gotham /16M... Aqueduct...J Boys Echo March Tampa Bay Derby /16M... Tampa Bay Downs...Tapwrit March San Felipe /16M... Santa Anita...Mastery March Rebel /16M... Oaklawn...Malagacy March UAE Derby /16M... Meydan...Thunder Snow March Spiral /8M... Turfway Park...Fast and Accurate March Sunland Derby /8M... Sunland Park...Hence April 1... Florida Derby /8M... Gulfstream...Always Dreaming April 1... Louisiana Derby /8M... Fair Grounds...Girvin April 8... Wood Memorial /8M... Aqueduct...Irish War Cry April 8... Blue Grass /8M... Keeneland...Irap April 8... Santa Anita Derby /8M... Santa Anita...Gormley April Arkansas Derby /8M... Oaklawn Park April Lexington /16M... Keeneland *Points are for Japan-based horses only

15 Kentucky Derby 2017 Point Standings (through April 9) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS Girvin... Joe Sharp $849, Gormley... John Shirreffs $884, Irap... Doug O Neill $744, Irish War Cry... Graham Motion $672, Thunder Snow (IRE).Saeed bin Suroor $1,621, Always Dreaming... Todd Pletcher $589, Gunnevera... Antonio Sano $1,137, Practical Joke... Chad Brown $966, J Boys Echo... Dale Romans $305, State of Honor... Mark Casse $309, Tapwrit... Todd Pletcher $295, Malagacy... Todd Pletcher $540, Hence... Steve Asmussen $481, Fast and Accurate.Mike Maker $320, McCraken... Ian Wilkes $385, Battle of Midway... Jerry Hollendorfer $224, Patch... Todd Pletcher $200, Battalion Runner... Todd Pletcher $140, Cloud Computing... Chad Brown $115, Untrapped... Steve Asmussen $210, Classic Empire... Mark Casse $1,493, Royal Mo... John Shirreffs $213,000 NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS Local Hero... Steve Asmussen $140, Conquest Mo Money.Miguel Hernandez $296, Iliad... Doug O Neill $220, Master Plan... Todd Pletcher $214, Sonneteer... Keith Desormeaux $186, Blueridge Traveler... Kenny McPeek $95, Wild Shot... Rusty Arnold II $132, True Timber... Kiaran McLaughlin $124, Petrov... Ron Moquett $195, Lookin at Lee... Steve Asmussen $328, Term of Art... Doug O Neill $119, One Liner... Todd Pletcher $300, Mo Town... Tony Dutrow $205, Impressive Edge... Dale Romans $57, Reach the World... Bob Baffertt $50, Convict Pike... Rusty Arnold II $47, Hollywood Handsome.Dallas Stewart $40, Bonus Points... Todd Pletcher $52, American Anthem... Bob Baffert $23, Warrior s Club... D. Wayne Lukas $27, Midnight Pleasure... Craig Dollase $54, Silver Dust... Randy Morse $52,000 + Not Triple Crown nominated ++ Late Triple Crown nominee +++ Owner will pay $200,000 supplemental