SATURDAY, APRIL 16, 2016 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION. Cupid Photo by Coady Photography

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1 SATURDAY, APRIL 16, 2016 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Arkansas Derby Lexington Cupid Photo by Coady Photography

2 Arkansas Derby Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN Although Bob Baffert is based in Southern California, his home away from home, as it pertains to Kentucky Derby preps, is at Oaklawn Park. Over the past five years, Baffert is 9 for 17 (53 percent) with a $3.55 ROI in these races, and CUPID (10) looks to add to those gaudy figures when he starts favored in Saturday s Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby at nine furlongs. Cupid handled six of his Arkansas Derby rivals in last month s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and a repeat of that effort likely would put him back in the winner s circle. He didn t break alertly in the Rebel but was hustled up by Martin Garcia to set the pace along the rail. His final lead change was violently awkward, but he soon righted himself and rebroke when urged inside the furlong marker. Cupid drew outside the other speeds on Saturday and might prompt those horses while racing in the clear. The distance is the main question since Cupid s female family is stocked with sprinters. Perhaps nine furlongs is a bridge too far considering his bloodlines, but he is unquestionably the horse to beat. WHITMORE (8), a troubled second in the Grade 3 Southwest in February, had the outside stretch momentum in the Rebel before Cupid put up the no passing sign. He s moved forward on the Beyer Speed Figure scale in all of his starts this year but has lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in all three prior route starts. It s possible he ll be more effective at shorter distances. Conversely, CREATOR (3) is bred to run long and was motoring home late when third in the Rebel. The Tapit colt has blossomed since moving to Oaklawn and has the look of a late-developing sort who is reaching career form. He ll be moving in the stretch along with SUDDEN- BREAKINGNEWS (4), the beaten favorite in the Rebel. Suddenbreakingnews displayed a powerful turn of foot to win the Southwest but was stopped at a crucial point on the final turn in the Rebel. A horse with his running style is always at the mercy of race and pace luck, but Suddenbreakingnews can contend if everything falls his way. DAZZLING GEM (7) has tremendous upside, with only three starts on his record, but he ll need to put it all together right now to beat this field. He missed a week of training due to a foot abscess prior to his even thirdplace finish in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and has the tactical speed to sit just off the lead. He s an intriguing long-term prospect. AMERICAN PIONEER (5) was beaten by Dazzling Gem on Jan. 18 but returned to flatter that foe when an impressive maiden graduate on the Rebel undercard. This is a big ask from a class standpoint, but it s evident that this Awesome Again colt has lots of talent. UNBRIDLED OUTLAW (6) was a troubled third in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last year before fading badly in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He faced older runners on the Rebel undercard and acquitted himself very well, finishing second after contesting the pace. That race looks like a perfect prep, and he could be the pacesetter Saturday. GETTYSBURG (12) owns a victory at this distance and wasn t embarrassed by the favored Collected when second at Sunland Park last month. He must overcome a wide post. The rest of the field might be exposed at this class level. DISCREETNESS (1, seventh in both the Southwest and Rebel), CUTACORNER (2, ninth in the Southwest and eighth in the Rebel), LUNA DE LOCO (9, 13th in the Southwest), and GRAY SKY (11, sixth in the Rebel) complete the bulky field. ELEVENTH RACE Probable Post 6:18 CDT 1 1/8 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. ArkDerby (Grade 1). Purse: $1,000,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 10 Cupid...Garcia M Whitmore...Ortiz I Jr Suddenbreakingnews...Quinonez L S Gettysburg...Velazquez J R American Pioneer...Bejarano R Creator...Santana R Jr Unbridled Outlaw...Lanerie C J Dazzling Gem...Talamo J Discreetness...Court J K Luna de Loco...Bravo J Gray Sky...Vazquez R A Cutacorner...Birzer A E

3 Arkansas Derby Super Looks BY KENNY PECK DISCREETNESS (Record: , 10 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: William Fires (Won 2011 Arkansas Derby with Archarcharch) Jockey: Jon Court (Won Arkansas Derby in 2010 and 2011) Formulator Facts: Trainer William Fires has only one graded stakes victory in the last five years but that win was in the 2011 Arkansas Derby, with Archarcharch. Fires and jockey Jon Court, his son-in-law, show a flatbet profit when teaming up this year at Oaklawn (10 wins from 44 starts, $2.47 ROI). Outlook: Did rally a bit in the Rebel Stakes last time out, closing from 11th to finish seventh, but was really no threat despite the fast early fractions. This is his sixth straight stakes appearance, but while he did win the Smarty Jones and the Springboard Mile his two starts over this track against graded stakes company were not as good, and his Beyers are light compared with the top contenders. Value: Figures to be a long price and he s tough to use off his last two starts, as he was no threat behind several of these same runners with no apparent excuse. CUTACORNER (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Jack Van Berg (won 1981 Arkansas Derby with Bold Ego) Jockey: Alex Birzer Formulator Facts: This jockey/trainer combination has clicked for 12 wins from 73 tries at the current Oaklawn meet, good for a positive ROI ($2.76). Trainer Jack Van Berg is in graded stakes going back to Outlook: Finished behind several of these same runners in both the Rebel and the Southwest Stakes, over this same track, and that was despite favorable race. He has not posted a Beyer that s good enough to win this, and the task only figures to be tougher here, as he doesn t figure to get as much pace help as he did in his last two tries. Value: Likely to be among the longest prices on the board and he s tough to endorse even for a small share, as his style is likely to put him against the race flow and seemingly too slow to overcome that hurdle. CREATOR (Record: , 10 Derby points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Steve Asmussen (won Arkansas Derby in 2002 and 2007) Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Formulator Fact: Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. have combined to win with 6 of 20 runners (30 percent) in graded stakes at Oaklawn going to back to 2013 ($3.17 ROI). Outlook: Finished a surprise third in the Rebel, aided by a quick pace up front. That effort resulted in the best Beyer (90) of his career, and it was the fourth straight time he s posted an improved Beyer. He s consistent, having hit the board in six of his seven starts, and he figures to make a late run in the Arkansas Derby, as he should appreciate the added distance. Value: Should be in the neighborhood of 10-1, and he s worth using underneath in exotics, though he could be too late if the fractions are on the mild side. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (Record: , 10 Derby points) Best Beyer: 93 Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Luis Quinonez Formulator Facts: Trainer Donnie Von Hemel and jockey Luis Quinonez have combined to win with 4 of 18 runners in graded stakes at Oaklawn Park going back five years. The barn has won eight races with horses making their third start off the layoff and trying a route on the Oaklawn dirt, and all but one of those winners went off at odds of 7-2 or less. Outlook: Had a little bit of traffic trouble in the Rebel but he was probably not going to win the race even with a clean trip, as he was only rallying mildly late despite an ideal setup. He won the Southwest with a big late run, but he was aided by a race flow very favorable to closers, and he benefited most of all, coming from last. This edition of the Arkansas Derby doesn t seem to feature all that much speed and his running style could leave him with a lot to do. Value: He ll be among the top five favorites in the field but he could be vulnerable as a stone closer, since there doesn t appear to be enough speed to produce a quick, contested pace, and that seems to be what he needs to run his best race.

4 Arkansas Derby Super Looks CONTINUED AMERICAN PIONEER (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Wayne Catalano (won 1997 Arkansas Derby with Crypto Star) Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (won 2013 Arkansas Derby with Overanalyze) Formulator Fact: Trainer Wayne Catalano is only 2 for 32 (6 percent) in graded stakes races going long on dirt. Outlook: The most lightly raced horse in the field, with only two starts, and this is his first start against winners. But while he spots an experience edge to the others, he is likely to still be on the improve for a trainer who does very well with young horses. His tactical speed should mean he s well positioned early on, and the relative lack of pace in this race should mean those runners with forward trips have the edge. His latest Beyer is a little light compared with the top contenders. Value: The big step up from the maiden ranks into a Grade 1 top Kentucky Derby prep will scare away some bettors, so he figures to offer value at around 8-1 or so. UNBRIDLED OUTLAW (Record: , 2 Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corey Lanerie Formulator Fact: Trainer Dale Romans has won at 17% ($2.61 ROI) with horses in graded stakes making their second start off a layoff. Outlook: Had his share of traffic problems in the first three starts of his career, and he was used up prompting an honest pace in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in his last start of But he returned to run a strong second against older optional claimers in his latest. The concern is that he was unable to last there despite being on a loose lead through average fractions, and he goes farther than he s ever gone today. Also, he could regress in his second start off the layoff, as many horses do after they post a top Beyer in their first start off the break. Value: He is listed at 10-1 on the morning line, and that seems a bit of an underlay for a horse who is more likely to regress than he is to move forward off his most recent. DAZZLING GEM (Record: , 20 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Joe Talamo Formulator Fact: Trainer Brad Cox has five graded stakes wins on the dirt going back five years, and all five winners were 5-1 or under. Outlook: He faded after stalking the pace in the Louisiana Derby in his most recent try, registering a Beyer that matched the figure he put up in an allowance win two back. He did hold well for the show there considering the trip, and the fact that he has some tactical speed is certainly a plus in this race, but he would have to improve at least 10 Beyer points if he s to threaten here. Value: He s consistent but he has not proven he can run fast enough to beat this group, making 12-1 a tad short as a longshot stab. WHITMORE (Record: , 24 Derby points) Best Beyer: 92 Trainer: Ron Moquett Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Formulator Facts: Trainer Ron Moquett and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. are 0 for 7 when they have teamed up. Moquett is 1 for 61 (2 percent) with graded stakes runners going back five years. Outlook: Finished first or second in four of his five starts, with his only sub-par effort coming when he caught a muddy track in the Delta Jackpot. He s 2 for 3 on dry footing, but both of those wins were sprints, and he has yet to win around two turns. He does fit here on the strength of that last Beyer, earned in the Rebel, but he was also the recipient of a very favorable race flow, with fast fractions aiding the closers, just as he was when he was second in the Southwest two back. He may not get that same kind of trip here, which could make it tough for him to match that figure, something he would need to do to win this, it seems. He has posted improving Beyers this season but he could take a step back here. Value: He s the second choice on the morning line at 9-2, but he could have trouble running to his last couple of speed figures, making a relatively short price a little tough to take. LUNA DE LOCO (Record: , 1 Derby point) Best Beyer: 79 Trainer: Steve Asmussen (won Arkansas Derby in 2002 and 2007) Jockey: Joe Bravo (won 2014 Arkansas Derby with Danza) Formulator Fact: The combination of trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Joe Bravo is 0 for 7 going back to Outlook: Finished far behind several of these runners in the Southwest, but he was up against it there, too close to the pace in a race that set up well for the speeds. That came on the heels of a deceptively good try in the Smarty Jones, where he held well to miss the show by less than a length in only his second start. He rebounded nicely against optional-allowance runners in his latest, showing good positional speed and closing nicely late, and if he can stay close in the early stages today he could have an advantage on the stone closers. Value: He ll be a huge price because his Beyers are light, but he does have a legit chance at a part of this given his running style and that he has license to post a muchimproved figure. Not wild about his chances of beating a horse like Cupid, but he s one to consider for exotics.

5 Arkansas Derby Super Looks CONTINUED CUPID (Record: , 50 Derby points) Best Beyer: 95 Trainer: Bob Baffert (won Arkansas Derby in 2012 and 2015) Jockey: Martin Garcia Formulator Facts: Trainer Bob Baffert is 11 for 22 (50 percent) in graded stakes races at Oaklawn Park going back five years. Baffert saddled American Pharoah to victory in the 2015 Arkansas Derby prior to that colt s Triple Crown run. Outlook: The horse to catch and beat, and it won t be easy. He was very game in victory in the Rebel last time, as he was under early pressure through solid opening fractions yet he held off all challengers late despite a perfect setup for the closers. He lands in an Arkansas Derby that is a little light on pace, and that only figures to help his cause. He figures to be on the lead once again, with no obvious pace-presser in the field capable of running with him, and he can certainly wire these if he s able to back down the fractions, despite never having run this far. Value: He is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite but he s likely to be lower than that, probably in the neighborhood of 7-5 or 8-5. That does seem light considering the size of this field and several unknown quantities, but he is also the most likely winner of the race. GRAY SKY (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (won Arkansas Derby in 1984 and 1985) Jockey: Ramon Vazquez Formulator Facts: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is only 2 for 37 in graded stakes races at Oaklawn over the past five years. All five of his runners in the past five Arkansas Derbies finished off the board. Outlook: Made a big mid-race move in the Rebel only to flatten out late, but that was a very good effort from him. He figures to benefit from the experience, but he also has his work cut out for him and would need a better effort to win this. He seems up against the race flow as a closer, whereas he was behind a quick pace in that last one and was still unable to post a figure good enough to hit the board in a race like this. Value: Looms one of the longer prices on the board due to his light speed figures, and he s not an easy horse to like in any of the top spots. GETTYSBURG (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 87 Trainer: Todd Pletcher (won Arkansas Derby in 2000, 2001, 2013 and 2014) Jockey: John Velazquez Formulator Facts: Trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race twice in the past three years, with Overanalyze in 2013 and Danza in Pletcher has five graded stakes wins at Oaklawn since 2012, and sports a flat-bet profit from his 20 starters in graded stakes at Oaklawn since 2012 ($5.83). Outlook: He s widest of the 12 entered but he has the speed to get position, and that s an important consideration, especially given how this race figures to shape up in terms of pace. He should be just off favorite and expected pacesetter Cupid, and if that runner has a tough time handling the distance, this colt could be in a perfect spot. He is the only horse in this field with success at this distance -- and one of only two to have even tried 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. His trainer has won this race four times, and this colt has a string of steady, competitive Beyers. Value: Will be around 5-1 or 6-1, and he is a win candidate despite the wide post.

6 Arkansas Derby Pedigree BY MARK SIMON DISCREETNESS Pedigree: Discreet Cat Fondness (by Elusive Quality) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.47 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 48 Sire history: 6 crops of racing age, 528 foals, 4.7% SWs, 2.1% Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 2 starters, 1 winner, SW Discreetness Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.1 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71 CUTACORNER Pedigree: Even the Score Pathologist (by Gone West) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.76 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 48 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 416 foals, 3.4% SWs, 1.2% Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 2 starters, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 69.5 CREATOR Pedigree: Tapit Morena (by Privately Held) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.47 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 68 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,013 foals, 7.6% SWs, 4.8% Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 1 starter, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8.5 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS Pedigree: Mineshaft Uchitel (by Afleet Alex) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.35 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 56 Sire history: 10 crops of racing age, 747 foals, 5.5% SWs, 2.4% Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 2 starters, 2 winners, incl. SW Suddenbreakingnews Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 84 AMERICAN PIONEER Pedigree: Awesome Again Makoma (by Malibu Moon) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.45 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 55 Sire history: 15 crops of racing age, 1,100 foals, 5.7% SWs, 2.9% Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 1 starter, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8.5 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA UNBRIDLED OUTLAW Pedigree: Unbridled s Song Letgomyecho (by Menifee) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.19 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 61 Sire history: 17 crops of racing age, 1,700 foals, 6.8% SWs, 3.2% Dam s produce record: 8 foals of racing age, 6 starters, 4 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.3 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71.8 DAZZLING GEM Pedigree: Misremembered Dazzler (by Vindication) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.41 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 43 Sire history: 2 crops of racing age, 58 foals, 3.4% SWs, 1.7% Dam s produce record: 4 foals of racing age, 3 starters, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.2 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 78 WHITMORE Pedigree: Pleasantly Perfect Melody s Spirit (by Scat Daddy) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.68 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 44 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 483 foals, 4.1% SWs, 1.4% Dam s produce record: 1 foal of racing age, 1 winner, 1 SW Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.0 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA LUNA DE LOCO Pedigree: Malibu Moon Fancy Prancer (by Bertrando) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.07 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 57 Sire history: 14 crops of racing age, 1,476 foals, 6.6% SWs, 2.4% Dam s produce record: 10foals of racing age, 8 starters, 8 winners, incl. SWs Miss Sassy Sue, Littlemiss Allison, Robo Willie, Dakota Sue Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.2 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71.6

7 Arkansas Derby Pedigree CONTINUED CUPID Pedigree: Tapit Pretty n Smart (by Beau Genius) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.47 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 68 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,013 foals, 7.6% SWs, 4.8% Dam s produce record: 10 foals of racing age, 8 starters, 8 winners, incl. Grade 3 SW Ashley s Kitty, Grade 3 SW Heart Ashley, Grade 3 SW Cupid, SW Indianapolis Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 89.4 GRAY SKY Pedigree: Tapit Trickski (by Peteski) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.47 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 68 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,013 foals, 7.6% SWs, 4.8% Dam s produce record: 10 foals of racing age, 7 starters, 4 winners, incl. Grade 1 SW Dearest Trickski Dam s progeny average winning distance: 5.9 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71.3 GETTYSBURG Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile L. A. Devine (by Pulpit) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.49 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 42 Sire history: 4 crops of racing age, 328 foals, 4.0% SWs, 2.1% Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 2 starters, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8.0 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 87

8 Arkansas Derby Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field AVERAGE WINNING BEYER BEYER SPEED FIGURES Discreetness Cutacorner Creator Suddenbreakingnews American Power Unbridled Outlaw Dazzling Gem Whitmore Luna de Loco Cupid Gray Sky Gettysburg Track s morning line odds FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2011: Archarcharch, : Bodemeister, : Overanalyze, : Danza, : American Pharoah, 105

9 Arkansas Derby Pace Projection PACE 2 3/4 mile OAKLAWN, 1 1/8 miles PACE 1 1/2 mile START F I N I S H 1st: Cupid 2nd: Whitmore 3rd: Creator

10 Lexington Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN SWIPE (4), the runner-up to the undefeated champion Nyquist in the 2015 Breeders Cup Juvenile, makes his 3-year-old debut in Saturday s Grade 3, $150,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, a 1 1/16-mile test that offers 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. Sidelined after the Juvenile with an ankle chip that required surgery, Swipe has been handled carefully by trainer Keith Desormeaux, who is already represented on the Derby trail with Santa Anita Derby hero Exaggerator. Swipe may be the most naturally talented horse in the Lexington and is the horse to beat, but he might not be the horse to bet on at a relatively short price for a couple of reasons. First, although Swipe was a beacon of consistency last year, finishing on the board in all seven starts, he made a habit out of placing second. Can he be trusted to seal the deal when the chips are down? Second, Desormeaux does not have good numbers with similar layoff runners in dirt routes (0 for 23 over the past five years). It s possible that Swipe could be vulnerable off the bench. If Swipe is a bit short Saturday, then COLLECTED (10) might be poised to take advantage. Trained by Bob Baffert, Collected is undefeated from two starts on fast dirt and enters the Lexington sharp following a victory in a minor stakes race at Sunland Park. Collected might be no better than Baffert s third-string 3-year-old at the moment, but he has been placed in spots where he can win, and his tactical speed should have him in a nice pace-tracking spot while in the clear. He s the tepid pick but doesn t offer much betting value at his 2-1 morning line. Perhaps DIRECT MESSAGE (2) is the price horse worth backing. An $800,000 yearling purchase, Direct Message is a son of Bernardini out of a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone. He is bred to run all day and has improved drastically in his two-turn efforts with Lasix at Gulfstream. He is still a bit green as he was very late to make his final lead change in his maiden triumph, but the 91 Beyer Speed Figure earned that afternoon makes him ultra-competitive at nice odds. RIKER (8), the champion 2-year-old colt in Canada last year, still must prove his mettle on dirt. Undefeated on Woodbine s old Polytrack surface, Riker faded in both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the Tampa Bay Derby. He ll be a forward factor under Florent Geroux. BIG SQUEEZE (6) is another who boasts a strong route pedigree. He took care of a maiden field in his first start around two turns at Oaklawn but failed to switch leads in the stretch. This colt is talented but is taking a big step up in class. SYNCHRONY (4), third in the Smarty Jones Stakes two starts back, may not have cared for a wet track when a flat sixth in the Grade 3 Southwest. He has been freshened up for this race and was an authoritative maiden graduate at Keeneland last fall. YO CARM (9) transitioned smoothly to dirt with a convincing n1x win at Tampa Bay Downs. He ll need to improve drastically on the Beyer scale in order to contend for win honors. LOMCEVAK (3) beat CALL THE COLONEL (7) over sloppy going at Fair Grounds last month, while Southern California-based maiden ONE MORE ROUND (1) should show early speed from his inside post. NINTH RACE Probable Post 4:59 EDT 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. Lexingtn (Grade 3). Purse: $150,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 4 Swipe...Prat F Collected...Castellano J J Riker...Geroux F Synchrony...Bridgmohan S X Big Squeeze...Landeros C Direct Message...Saez L Lomcevak...Castanon J L Yo Carm...Albarado R J Call the Colonel...Leparoux J R One More Round...Lezcano J

11 Lexington Super Looks BY MARCUS HERSH ONE MORE ROUND (Record: , 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 80 Trainer: A. C. Avila Jockey: Jose Lezcano (one Lexington win) Formulator Facts: Trainer A. C. Avila has started only one horse at Keeneland the last five years, Great Hot, who won the Grade 2 Raven Run on Polytrack in Outlook: Definitely looks better today than he did a week ago, since Trojan Nation almost four lengths in arrears of him last time came back to nearly win the Grade 1 Wood on April 9. Hoffenheim, the winner of One More Round s last race, has long been well regarded but has disappointed much of the winter and spring. That looked like a solid two-turn debut for One More Round, in any case. One on hand, added distance here isn t a plus, but on the other, it s a short-stretch 1 1/16 miles that can help a leg-weary front-runner hang on for a piece. An easy lead, his best chance at a high placing, doesn t seem likely. Value: Win seems unlikely, but if the track is playing to his inside-speed trip and you think he s improving, you ll get your price on the win end. Could see tossing him on bottom of tris and supers at a big number as he s not entirely hopeless. DIRECT MESSAGE (Record: , 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 91 Trainer: Tom Albertrani Jockey: Luis Saez Formulator Facts: Albertrani the last five years in 3-yearold dirt-route races with horses priced at 10-1 or higher is On the other hand, eight of his 14 graded-stakes starters the last five years at Keeneland have finished third or better, including Brilliant Speed s 19-1 win in the 2011 Blue Grass (on Polytrack). Outlook: This $800,000 Bernardini colt has improved with some combination of Lasix, distance, and maturity. He did get a perfect-pressing trip en route to a fourth-start maiden victory last time. The best part of that race probably was the third quarter-mile in a very solid 24 seconds. He had a very late lead change, and it was only when he finally swapped over that he put away the pace-setter. Nothing yet has run back out of that race. Gettysburg, who beat him two back, was second to Collected in the Sunland Derby and races Saturday in the Arkansas Derby. Have to wonder if he s fast enough, turning back from nine furlongs, to be with the leading group, and if he s not, there s no evidence yet he s got the wherewithal to take dirt behind horses and pass them late. Value: Hasn t really taken betting action yet, and even with the competitive 91 Beyer from last, he probably won t here. There s definitely a chance he s simply an improving 3-year-old who has more to give today, and if that s where your opinion falls, you probably get a fair price. LOMCEVAK (Record: , 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 76 Trainer: Jack Frost Jockey: Jesus Castanon Formulator Facts: Trainer Frost s two winners this Keeneland meet were the first of his career. He s had no graded stakes starters the last five years. Outlook: The outlook is not good. The turf race in which he won his maiden was only okay, and you can see what he beat last out in an off-the-turf allowance over the slop at Fair Grounds, because the runner up, Call the Colonel, also is entered here. Almost certainly a cut below what s going to be required to crack the top four. Value: The morning-line of 15-1 seems totally unrealistic, and I d imagine he goes postward closer to Can t see him offering any value on the win end, and I prefer other tri and super kickers. SWIPE (Record: , 12 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Flavien Prat Formulator Facts: Desormeaux with dirt horses returning from layoffs from three to six months the last five years is just with a $0.61 ROI. The Desormeaux-trained Texas Red twice was second at odds of 4-5 and 9-5 last year racing after a break in that range. Outlook: Whatever happens from here on out, you can t take away the fact his connections got this horse for $5,000 at auction and ran out more than $600,000 from him as a 2-year-old, nearly winning the BC Juvenile. Hard to believe he pressed a sprint pace second time out, since he evolved into a settle-and-finish route horse by year s end. Had a setback that delayed his 3-year-old bow, and while he s probably ready for something decent, you get the sense they ve played a bit of catch-up to get here. Trainer does excellent work, and horse clearly is capable, but barn s layoff record coupled with a short price encourages at least a mild stand against. Value: He s 9-5 on the line and could go shorter than that. Yes he s chased Nyquist, but he s also still eligible for a first-level allowance. From this point of view he ll be an underlay.

12 Lexington Super Looks CONTINUED SYNCHRONY (Record: , 2 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan Formulator Facts: Von Hemel has a nice little sample of 3-year-olds returning from layoff of days in dirtroute stakes the last five years: That fifth-place finish came with Alternation in the 13-horse 2011 Arkansas Derby, so it wasn t bad, either. Outlook: He didn t have a great trip making his 3-year-old debut in the Smarty Jones, and the thought here was he d build on that race, but he went the other direction in the Southwest, running a flat race with no apparent excuse. His win over Uncle Walter last fall at Churchill looked pretty good at the time, but Uncle Walter failed to impress much at all in his Fair Grounds 3-year-old campaign. The pedigree is there for sure, but it s looking more and more like the talent doesn t quite stack up. Value: Not all horses love Oaklawn, and it might mean something that Von Hemel got him out of there for this instead of the Arkansas Derby. There s still a chance he builds on the mildly encouraging 2-year form, and win odds of 12-1 or 15-1 would feel pretty fair to guess improvement comes now. BIG SQUEEZE (Record: , 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Gary Simms Jockey: Chris Landeros Formulator Facts: Simms the last five years in dirt routes with horses 5-1 and higher is just with an $0.81 ROI. Outlook: This is a very interesting horse. He s run against some pretty good competition. Even debuting at Turfway he beat Twizz, who was second to Sonoma Crush in a Fair Grounds maiden special weight sprint before winning a race like that. Two back he finished second, beating Goats Town, who ran quite well as a maiden in the Grade 1 Blue Grass. The winner of that race two back just missed next out in an allowance race, earning a 93 Beyer. Big Squeeze won a maiden race at Oaklawn last out, and the horse he beat came from Southern California and looks talented, too. He is not a pretty mover at all he races with his ears pinned, has a choppy-ish stride, doesn t reach out much, and he is terrible about changing leads in the homestretch. All that and he still runs fast. He looked a little smoother last time in his first route, and rated comfortably off the leader. He has plenty of potential. Value: At something like the 10-1 morning line he could be worth a play. Doubt the win price or even exotics use will fully reflect the positive circumstances leading to this start, with the betting public probably focusing on the fact he s only a maiden winner in a graded stakes with a trainer little known in national circles. CALL THE COLONEL (Record: , 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 75 Trainer: Jon Cowan Jockey: Julien Leparoux (three Lexington wins) Outlook: He beat Creator at Fair Grounds to finally clear the maiden ranks, and Creator came back to win a maiden race at Oaklawn and finish third in the Rebel there. But Creator looked like a different horse at Oaklawn than at Fair Grounds, and got into a world of trouble when Call the Colonel beat him. He was no match for Lomcevak last time, and Lomcevak hardly looks formidable here. Value: Leparoux remains a popular Keeneland jockey, and with a good-sized ontrack crowd, he will drag down the win price a bit. He is listed at 20-1, and should be 50-1, by rights. RIKER (Record: , 10 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Florent Geroux Formulator Facts: Casse the last five years with 3-year-olds in graded dirt-route stakes is with a $0.57 ROI. With horses off at odds of 6-1 or lower in such races, he s with a $0.81 ROI. Outlook: He comes out of a key race, as the Tampa Bay Derby produced two Grade 1 winners last weekend, Outwork in the Wood and Brody s Cause in the Blue Grass. He chased Outwork for six furlongs or so, but could not sustain a pace that turned fairly demanding the second quartermile while making his first start since the BC Juvenile. He stayed this 1 1/16-mile trip in the Grey last year, but did so leading on a soft pace, and the form of that race has not held up especially well this year. He appears to need a forward placement and will have company up front both inside and out. Seems fair to wonder if he can see out this trip. Value: Casse, Geroux, and running lines that include Destin, Outwork, and Nyquist probably slot him in as the solid third choice in the win pool. The feeling here based on questions of race shape, stamina, and quality is he ll be an underlay.

13 Lexington Super Looks CONTINUED YO CARM (Record: , 0 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 73 Trainer: Chris Block Jockey: Robby Albarado (three Lexington wins) Outlook: He hasn t raced since he stalked, pounced, and drew off to easy win Jan. 6 at Tampa making first start on dirt, but the trip was favorable, the race came up light on the Beyer scale, and none of the five behind him that day has returned to show much. Respect the barn, and the race shape could work, but this looks a tall order. Value: He is 15-1 on the morning line but seems likely to be 40-1 or higher. Hasn t shown enough for me to consider for the top spot at any price, and he d need several to run below form even to get fourth. COLLECTED (Record: , 11 Derby Points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Javier Castellano (one Lexington win) Formulator Facts: Castellano hasn t ridden for Baffert since Baffert avoided Keeneland during the Polytrack era. He had good luck on dirt last year, winning the BC Classic with American Pharoah, finishing third with Fame and Power in the Lexington, and third with Fantastic Style in the Beaumont. Enchanting Lady was fifth in the Madison last weekend, however. Baffert continues to amaze in 3-year-old dirt-route graded stakes, even with the American Pharoah effect from last year. The last five years in such races he s won 45 of 118 (38 percent), and his horses have finished third or better 88 times (75 percent) with a $2.01 ROI. Outlook: For now, at least, he s at best the barn s third string. That may or may not be enough to win this. I feel like the speed figure from the Sunland Derby makes him look better than he is there was one horse to beat there, Gettysburg, and he made an easy lead from him. The Southwest two back was his real test, and while it was a closer-dominated race for the most part, this horse was outfinished by American Dubai, who had a tougher trip and has come back to get drummed in the Rebel and the Blue Grass. Doesn t have to be on the lead, but wants to be close, and might prefer the front. The outside draw actually could be all right in that sense, but while runners breaking from post 10 are 3 for 18 at 1 1/16 miles since Keeneland went back to dirt last year, wide draws in general have been poor at the distance: post 6 and out have combined to go 11 for 143. Value: He s the 2-1 morning-line second choice, and hard to see him going off any higher than that. Swipe, on form, is the higher-quality horse, and the race shape could be at least a little against Collected. He s an underlay in my book.

14 Lexington Pedigree BY MARK SIMON ONE MORE ROUND Pedigree: Discreet Cat Leinster Lady (by E Dubai) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.47 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 48 Sire history: 6 crops of racing age, 528 foals, 4.7% SWs, 2.1% Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 2 starters, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: NA furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA DIRECT MESSAGE Pedigree: Bernardini Tweeter (by Unbridled s Song) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.63 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 61 Sire history: 7 crops of racing age, 1,240 foals, 3.9% SWs, 2.8% Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 1 starter, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: 9.0 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA LOMCEVAK Pedigree: Flatter Runaway Grey (by Runaway Groom) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.95 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 51 Sire history: 10 crops of racing age, 733 foals, 5.2% SWs, 1.5% Dam s produce record: 7 foals of racing age, 4 starters, 4 winners, incl. stakes-placed Mystic Mama and Runaway Stephen Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 75.3 SWIPE Pedigree: Birdstone Avalanche Lily (by Grand Slam) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.50 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 49 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 916 foals, 2.1% SWs, 1.9% Dam s produce record: 5 foals of racing age, 4 starters, 3 winners, 1 SW Dam s progeny average winning distance: 5.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 72.8 SYNCHRONY Pedigree: Tapit Brownie Points (by Forest Wildcat) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.47 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 68 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,013 foals, 7.6% SWs, 4.8% Dam s produce record: 4foals of racing age, 3 starters, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 72.7 BIG SQUEEZE Pedigree: Lemon Drop Kid Taittinger Rose (by Menifee) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 8.07 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 60 Sire history: 13 crops of racing age, 1,193 foals, 7.5% SWs, 3.4% Dam s produce record: 6 foals of racing age, 5 starters, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8.3 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 75 CALL THE COLONEL Pedigree: Colonel John Touch Dial (by Phone Trick) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.15 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 48 Sire history: 4 crops of racing age, 425 foals, 1.9% SWs, 0.9 % Dam s produce record: 11 foals of racing age, 7 starters, 6 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 75.4 RIKER Pedigree: Include Desviacion (by Unreal Zeal) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.29 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 55 Sire history: 11 crops of racing age, 968 foals, 4.6% SWs, 2.1% Dam s produce record: 16 foals of racing age, 13 starters, 11 winners, incl. champion Riker, Grade 3 SW Cashel Castle, Panamanian champion Harlan s Castle, stakes-placed Scootchie Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.7? furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71.8

15 Lexington Pedigree CONTINUED YO CARM Pedigree: Flatter Iolanda (by Tale of the Cat) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.95 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 51 Sire history: 10 crops of racing age, 733 foals, 5.2% SWs, 1.5% Dam s produce record: 5 foals of racing age, 4 starters, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.7 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 65.8 COLLECTED Pedigree: City Zip Helena Bay (by Johannesburg) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.51 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 58 Sire history: 12 crops of racing age, 1,043 foals, 6.1% SWs, 2.3% Dam s produce record: 4 foals of racing age, 2 starters, 2 winners, 1 SW Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 82.5

16 Lexington Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field AVERAGE WINNING BEYER BEYER SPEED FIGURES One More Round Direct Message Lomcevak Swipe Synchrony Big Squeeze Call the Colonel Riker Yo Carm Collected Track s morning line odds FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2011: Derby Kitten, : All Squared Away, : Winning Cause, : Mr Speaker, : Divining Rod, 98

17 Lexington Pace Projection PACE 2 3/4 mile PACE 1 1/2 mile KEENELAND, 1 1/16 miles F I N I S H START 1st: Collected 2nd: Direct Message 3rd: Swipe

18 DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH Sept Iroquois /16M... Churchill Downs...Cocked and Loaded Sept FrontRunner /16M... Santa Anita...Nyquist Oct Breeders Futurity /16M... Keeneland...Brody s Cause Oct Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Greenpointcrusader Oct Grey /16M (S)... Woodbine...Riker Oct BC Juvenile /16M... Keeneland...Nyquist Nov Delta Downs Jackpot /16M... Delta Downs...Exaggerator Nov Remsen /8M... Aqueduct...Mohaymen Nov Kentucky Jockey Club /16M... Churchill Downs...Airoforce Dec Los Alamitos Futurity /16M... Los Alamitos...Mor Spirit Jan Jerome... 1 mile 70 yds... Aqueduct...Flexibility Jan Sham... 1M... Santa Anita...Collected Jan Lecomte... 1 mile 70 yds... Fair Grounds...Mo Tom Jan Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park...Discreetness Jan Holy Bull /16M... Gulfstream...Mohaymen Jan Withers /16M... Aqueduct...Sunny Ridge Feb Robert B. Lewis /16M... Santa Anita Park...Mor Spirit Feb El Camino Real Deby /8M (S)... Golden Gate...Frank Conversation Feb Southwest /16M... Oaklawn Park...Suddenbreakingnews

19 Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...WINNER... BEYER...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH Feb Risen Star /16M... Fair Grounds...Gun Runner Feb Fountain of Youth /16M... Gulfstream...Mohaymen March 5... Gotham /16M... Aqueduct...Shagaf March Tampa Bay Derby /16M... Tampa Bay Downs...Destin March San Felipe /16M... Santa Anita...Danzing Candy March Rebel /16M... Oaklawn...Cupid March Louisiana Derby /8M... Fair Grounds...Gun Runner March UAE Derby /16M... Meydan...Lani...N/A April 2... Florida Derby /8M... Gulfstream...Nyquist April 2... Spiral /8M (S)... Turfway Park...Oscar Nominated April 9... Wood Memorial /8M... Aqueduct...Outwork April 9... Blue Grass /8M... Keeneland...Brody s Cause April 9... Santa Anita Derby /8M... Santa Anita...Exaggerator April Arkansas Derby /8M... Oaklawn Park April Lexington /16M... Keeneland

20 Kentucky Derby 2016 Point Standings (through April 11) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS 1...Gun Runner... Steve Asmussen $849, Nyquist... Doug O Neill ,289, Exaggerator... Keith Desormeaux ,628, Outwork... Todd Pletcher , Brody s Cause... Dale Romans ,100, Lani... Mikio Matsunaga ,300, Mor Spirit... Bob Baffert , Mohaymen... Kiaran McLaughlin , Danzig Candy... Cliff Sise Jr , Destin... Todd Pletcher , Cupid... Bob Baffert , $+ Oscar Nominated... Mike Maker , Shagaf... Chad Brown , Tom s Ready... Dallas Stewart , Majesto... Gustavo Delgado , Trojan Nation... Paddy Gallagher ,000 (Career: 213,290) 17...My Man Sam... Chad Brown , Mo Tom... Tom Amoss , Fellowship... Stanley Gold , Adventist... Leah Gyarmati , Laoban... Eric Guillot , Uncle Lino... Gary Sherlock , Cherry Wine... Dale Romans , Whitmore... Ron Moquett , Azar... Todd Pletcher , Dazzling Gem... Brad Cox , Zulu... Todd Pletcher $81, Flexibility... Chad Brown , Swipe... Keith Desormeaux , Collected... Bob Baffert , Airoforce... Mark Casse , Suddenbreakingnews... Donnie Von Hemel , not nominated to Triple Crown $+ = Not Triple Crown nominated but owner intends to pay $200,000 supplemental nomination at time of entry NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS 33...Cocked and Loaded... Larry Rivelli , Discreetness... Williams Fires , Frank Conversation... Doug O Neill , Riker... Mark Casse , Surgical Strike... Ben Colebrook , Creator... Steve Asmussen , Star Hill... Rusty Arnold , Matt King Coal... Linda Rice , Rated R Superstar... Kenny McPeek , Kasseopia... Graham Motion , Awesome Speed... Alan Goldberg , Rafting... Graham Motion , Two Step Time... Mike Maker , Candy My Boy... Roger Brueggemann , Toews on Ice... Bob Baffert , Let s Meet in Rio... Bob Baffert , Found Money... Doug O Neill , American Dubai... Rodney Richards , Gift Box... Chad Brown , Uncle Walter... Mike Maker , In Equality... Leah Gyarmati , I Will Score... Jerry Hollendorfer , Synchrony... Donnie Von Hemel , Unbridled Outlaw... Dale Romans , Dressed in Hermes... Janet Armstrong , Bird of Trey... John Servis , Van Damme... Robert Gorham , Rare Candy... David Hofmans , Conquest Big E... Mark Casse , Conquest Windycity... Mark Casse , San Dimas... Eoin Harty , Luna de Loco... Steve Asmussen ,611