DERBY COUNTDOWN. El Camino Real Derby. Southwest FEBRUARY 13-15, 2016 UPDATED! Frank Conversation Photo by Shane Micheli/Vassar Photography

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1 FEBRUARY 13-15, 2016 UPDATED! DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION El Camino Real Derby Southwest Frank Conversation Photo by Shane Micheli/Vassar Photography

2 El Camino Real Derby Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN California Derby winner Frank Conversation and recent Santa Anita maiden graduate Mr. Coker head an evenly matched field in Saturday s Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at nine furlongs over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields. Shipped to Northern California after chasing Mor Spirit in the Los Alamitos Futurity, Frank Conversation enjoyed a dream trip in the California Derby. While third-place finisher Algenon (also entered in the El Camino Real Derby) and Allaboutaction battled up front, Frank Conversation relaxed in a perfect tracking position under Mario Gutierrez. Frank Conversation collared the pacesetters and drove home 2 1/2 lengths better than Marqula. Frank Conversation has talent, but it will be interesting to see how he reacts to adversity. He must overcome post 12. Mr. Coker stretches out while switching to synthetic, but he is bred to appreciate the distance. Mr. Coker was second behind the very promising Danzing Candy in his debut before scoring as an odds-on favorite last month at Santa Anita. He should be up close and has hinted at enormous potential. Kasseopia, a gate-to-wire winner of a maiden race on synthetic in England last year, finished a solid second in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes over Woodbine s Polytrack on Oct. 4. He was privately purchased following that effort and shouldn t be too far off the leaders given an alert start. Note that he broke outward badly in the Grey. Marqula looms as an intriguing outsider for trainer Jeff Bonde. The Washington-bred swung four wide in the California Derby but couldn t catch Frank Conversation. Perhaps he ll get some pace to attack, and it s nice to see that his Beyer Speed Figures are steadily improving. Touched by Autism took his maiden after dropping and switching surfaces. He projects as a pacesetter but faces a tough test. Algenon might receive a more patient ride this time. He s never been off the board from eight starts. Mana Strike bombed in the California Derby, but he previously defeated Algenon and Marqula in the Gold Rush Stakes at one mile. Giopress was overmatched on turf in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita. Previously, he won his maiden over this surface. The well-bred local maiden winner San Dimas, Irish invader Oscar Dominguez, Southern California turf maiden winners Tusk and Diplodocus, Go Long, and the stretch-out sprinter Kelly With a Twist complete the field. SEVENTH RACE Probable Post 3:45 PST 1 1/8 Miles. All Weather. 3-Year-Olds. ElCamRlD (Grade 3). Purse: $200,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 12 Frank Conversation...Gutierrez Mario Kasseopia...Van Dyke D Mr. Coker...Gonzalez S Marqula...Frey K Oscar Dominguez...Couton J Tusk...Hernandez J J Algenon...Martinez C Diplodocus...Baze R A Mana Strike...Mawing L A San Dimas...Gonzalez R Go Long...Lopez E Giopress...Gomez A Kelly With a Twist...Cedillo A Touched by Autism...Alvarado F T

3 El Camino Real Derby Super Looks ANALYSIS BY MICHAEL HAMMERSLY PEDIGREE INFORMATION BY DRF BREEDING KELLY WITH A TWIST (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 70 Trainer: Manuel Calvario Jockey: Abel Cedillo Pedigree: High Cotton Maddies Reward (by Drewman) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.6 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 44 Sire history: 6 crops of racing age, 365 foals, 1.6% SWs, 0.5% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 5.8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71 Formulator Facts: Calvario is 0 for his last 14 (two in the money, both finishing third) when going from sprints to a route. Calvario and Cedillo have teamed up just twice in the past 13 months, winning both times. Outlook: He comes here sharp, having won two straight here recently, but there s a caveat those wins both came sprinting and against lesser. In other words, he s not only up in class for this, but he s asked to route for the first time, so the hurdles are not insignificant. Coming out of sprints, he should be forwardly placed from the start. Value: While there are hurdles (up in class, routing for the first time), he comes here sharp, has speed coming out of sprints and the rail, so he isn t the worst speed play in the world at 20-1 or higher. KASSEOPIA (Record: , 4 Derby points) Best Beyer: 82 Trainer: Graham Motion Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Pedigree: Showcasing Dream Again (by Medicean) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.2 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: NA Sire history: 3 crops of racing age, 394 foals, 2.5% SWs, 1.3% GSWs Dam s produce record: 6 foals of racing age, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.3 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA Formulator Facts: Trainer Motion is a solid 60 for his last 422 (14 percent) in graded stakes. He and rider Van Dyke are 3 for their last 14 together (21 percent). Outlook: Looks like one of the ones as he has proven synthetic form. Not only was he a romping winner on such footing in England on Sept. 4 (won by 9 over 11 rivals), but he then came to North American and was a solid second in the Grade 3 Grey at Woodbine (on synthetic) on Oct. 4. He since has been purchased privately by Team Valor and moved to the barn of Graham Motion, the same owner/ trainer combination that brought you 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Value: Figures to be second choice to Frank Conversation or possibly even favored. Either way, he figures to be fair value at around 7-2 or so. TOUCHED BY AUTISM (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 66 Trainer: Marcia Stortz Jockey: Frank Alvarado (1 El Camino Real Derby win) Pedigree: Sierra Sunset Beau s Gem (by Beau Genius) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 5.6 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 37 Sire history: 2 crops of racing age, 55 foals, 0% SWs Dam s produce record: 7 foals of racing age, 5 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 63 Formulator Facts: This is trainer Stortz s first starter in a graded stakes in the past five years. The only time she and rider Alvarado got together over the past five years came here Jan. 24 (horse ran fifth). Outlook: Owner Johnny Taboada greeted Autism Awareness in the winner s circle after this race in This guy is trending the right way, as he was second in two straight here Nov. 22 and Dec. 13 (routing) and then went south, dueled, and gamely beat maidens at Santa Anita on Jan. 7. He seems most comfortable using his speed routing. Value: While it s a hefty hike to go from maiden company to facing Grade 3 foes, as he does here, he has shown route ability and talent over this track, so 15-1 wouldn t seem out of line. MR. COKER (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer (6 El Camino Real Derby wins) Jockey: Santiago Gonzalez Pedigree: Candy Ride Our Khrysty (by Newfoundland) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.95 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 59 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,033 foals, 5.3% SWs, 2.4% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 82 Formulator Facts: Hollendorfer is 45 for 203 over the last five years (22 percent) with imports going from sprint to route. Hollendorfer is 7 for his last 29 (24 percent) when going to a route after two sprints in that timeframe. Outlook: He showed ample talent down south. His debut

4 El Camino Real Derby Super Looks CONTINUED second at Santa Anita looks even better when you note that the horse he chased (Danzing Candy) came back to romp over allowance foes and has thus been thrust onto the Kentucky Derby trail, as the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita next month is his next target. This guy further flattered Danzing Candy by coming right back to easily beat maidens at Santa Anita on Jan. 18. Value: Has shown ample talent with two big efforts at Santa Anita to start his career. That being said, both were sprints on dirt today, he s routing on synthetic, and not at Santa Anita. He figures about the third betting choice, in the 9-2 vicinity, and even with those aforementioned hurdles, he merits more than mild consideration. OSCAR DOMINGUEZ (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: NA Trainer: Paddy Gallagher (1 El Camino Real Derby win) Jockey: Julien Couton Pedigree: Zoffany American Queen (by Fairy King) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.1 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: NA Sire history: 12 crops of racing age, 576 foals, 3.3% SWs, 1.6% GSWs Dam s produce record: 11 foals of racing age, 5 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 12.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA Formulator Facts: Trainer Gallagher is 3 for his last 32 (9 percent) over the past five years with foreign imports trying graded stakes, including Dice Flavor, with whom he won this race in The only two times he s teamed with Couton over the past five years, they finished fourth each time. Outlook: It s his first time in the U.S., so that s a hurdle, and it s his first action in two months. Still, this turf-bred gelding showed ample ability on synthetic footing in Ireland as he comes off an easy maiden win (over nine rivals). He must deal with a couple of months off and new surroundings, but it s not as if he runs into American Pharoah here. Value: While there are hurdles (first time in the U.S., first time here, first outing in two months), he hinted at ample synthetic ability with that last big win in Ireland on Dec. 18. Anything in the 6-1 range figures to be fair. SAN DIMAS (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 67 Trainer: Eoin Harty Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez Pedigree: Hard Spun Pamona Ball (by Pleasantly Perfect) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.1 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 56 Sire history: 6 crops of racing age, 1,090 foals, 4.7% SWs, 2.1% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 72 Formulator Facts: Harty is 17 for 123 over the past five years (13 percent) when looking for a repeat win. He s also 3 for his last 73 (4 percent) over the past five years in graded stakes. Outlook: Continues to progress the right way, though it s a hefty step up in class here as he faces winners for the first time. Still, he was a solid third here Dec. 13 (behind Giopress and Touched by Autism) and then moved forward to beat maidens here Jan. 16. He handles the track and the shorter trip, but based on his style and pedigree, there seems to be no reason to believe he won t handle Saturday s extra furlong. It s worth noting that rider Frank Alvarado was up for his last two but ends up on Touched by Autism here instead, so read into that what you will. Value: Could easily get ignored in the wagering, meaning double-digit odds are quite likely. He s progressing, so anything in the 15-1 is fair. MARQULA (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 87 Trainer: Jeff Bonde (1 El Camino Real Derby win) Jockey: Kyle Frey Pedigree: Coast Guard Marquet Formula (by Marquetry) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 5.2 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: NA Sire history: 2 crops of racing age, 23 foals, 0% SWs Dam s produce record: 4 foals of racing age, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.3 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 69 Formulator Facts: Bonde is 4 for 38 (9 percent) routing in graded stakes over the past five years. He and Frey are 14 for 94 (15 percent) together over the past five years. Outlook: Figures as a proven commodity because he was third in the Gold Rush here Dec. 4 (to Mana Strike and Algenon), second against optional claimers here Dec. 26, and second to Frank Conversation in the California Derby here Jan. 16. He has enough tactical speed to be in a good spot from the start. Trainer Bonde won this race last year with Metaboss. Value: Looks like the type of horse who might get ignored in the wagering. After all, he was 19-1 in the Gold Rush and 11-1 in the California Derby. Anything in the 10-1 range seems like a reasonable number. TUSK (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 72 Trainer: Graham Motion

5 El Camino Real Derby Super Looks CONTINUED Jockey: Juan Hernandez Pedigree: Tapit It s Midnight (by Shamardal) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.5 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 65 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,013 foals, 7.1% SWs, 4.5% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: NA Formulator Facts: Motion is 37 for 192 (19 percent) over the past five years the first time on synthetic. He s also 47 for 332 (14 percent) in that time frame with domestic invaders coming in for graded stakes. Outlook: After a game maiden win on turf at Del Mar on Nov. 8, they tossed him right into the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille on turf there Nov. 29. Those waters proved too deep (ran seventh). He was freshened afterward and came back to be third on turf at Santa Anita on Jan. 24. Even so, he was still well beaten (7 1/4 lengths), and this marks his first start on synthetic. Of course, he s by top sire Tapit, and that guy s get run on anything. Value: The fact he s by Tapit, comes from Southern California, and from the barn of Graham Motion (won 2011 Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom) might translate to him attracting more money than he might otherwise. Still, he figures to be double-digit odds, and you can be excused for taking a swing if he drifts that high. ALGENON (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: Len Kasmerski Jockey: Catalino Martinez Pedigree: Aragorn Alpine Yodel (by Swiss Yodeler) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.1 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: NA Sire history: 6 crops of racing age, 330 foals, 1.8% SWs, 0.3% GSWs Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 5.2 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 66 Formulator Facts: Kasmerski is 1 for his last 4 (25 percent, $2.12 ROI) in graded stakes, including having North Pacific run eighth in this race in He and Martinez are 2 for 10 together (20 percent, $7.24 ROI) in that timeframe. Outlook: He s done nothing wrong in eight starts (finished in the top three in each). Also, he was second in the Golden Nugget here Nov. 7, second in the Gold Rush here Dec. 5, and third in the California Derby here Jan. 16; has more than enough speed to get a good trip, but he doesn t seem like a need-the-lead type. Value: He went off at 6-1 in the Gold Rush and 9-1 in the California Derby, and while he ran well in each, there are a number of others in here who may attract more attention at the windows, meaning he figures in the same ballpark price-wise and with any sort of move forward, he could make such a price look attractive. DIPLODOCUS (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 67 Trainer: Richard Baltas Jockey: Russell Baze (8 El Camino Real Derby wins) Pedigree: Sky Mesa Speciality (by Carson City) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 54 Sire history: 10 crops of racing age, 836 foals, 6.6% SWs, 2.5% GSWs Dam s produce record: 5 foals of racing age, 4 winners, dam of Grade 3-placed Grizzled Robert Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 78 Formulator Facts: Baltas is just 1 for 17 (5 percent) in the past five years when shipping and moving from turf to synthetic. He is 1 for his last 3 (33 percent, $7.06 ROI) on synthetic in graded stakes. Outlook: He finished strongly to beat maidens on turf at Santa Anita on Jan. 2 but was then no factor (fifth) against winners on turf there Jan. 24. Still, a sharp trainer (Baltas) not only feels good enough about him to ship all the way north for this, but he gets top rider Russell Baze to ride. Surely in a race like this, you d expect Baze would have had options, so the fact that he ends up here is most encouraging. Value: While that last outing wasn t much, the fact that it s a top Southern California barn doing the shipping and the top local jockey doing the riding lends more than some attraction here. It may also mean a shorter price, though with some other contention lined up, he may still be playable in the 6-1 range. GO LONG (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 75 Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Erick Lopez Pedigree: Congrats Miss Fortunate (by Deputy Minister) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 52 Sire history: 7 crops of racing age, 877 foals, 2.5% SWs, 0.7% GSWs Dam s produce record: 8 foals of racing age, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.5 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 58 Formulator Facts: The only time Desormeaux made the dirtto-synthetic move in a graded stakes was with La Grange in the Grade 2 Sorrento at Del Mar in August 2014, and she

6 El Camino Real Derby Super Looks CONTINUED ran second. He s 2 for his last 13 (15 percent) shipping and racing on synthetic for the first time. Outlook: He gamely beat maidens in a dirt sprint at Del Mar on July 18, but then things went south, as he was no factor in six starts against winners. However, he dropped in for a $50,000 tag on dirt at Santa Anita on Jan. 22 and rallied to win, so he may be back on track. Or, was that win a function of the move down in class? And if so, does that make this move back into Grade 3 waters a bit daunting? He also races on synthetic for the first time. Value: That last win may bolster enthusiasm some, but a string of poor outings prior and today being his first try on synthetic likely mean he figures somewhere in the 20-1 range. FRANK CONVERSATION (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 92 Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Pedigree: Quality Road Rushen Heat (by Unusual Heat) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.9 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 57 Sire history: 3 crops of racing age, 277 foals, 2.2% SWs, 0.7% GSWs Dam s produce record: 4 foals of racing age, 2 winners. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 81 Formulator Facts: O Neill is 11 for his last 82 (13 percent, $1.30 ROI) with horses who won last time out and are racing in a graded stakes. He s also 12 for his last 100 (12 percent, $2.15 ROI) when teaming with Gutierrez in graded stakes. Outlook: He looked super in blasting some of these in the California Derby on Jan. 16, as he showed enough tactical speed to get position and yet could still finish and draw off. He showed quality in prior starts, too, including finishing third in the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille on turf at Del Mar on Nov. 29. That was enough to earn a shot at the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, and while he fizzled to fifth after dueling early, he came right back to win the California Derby here a few weeks later. Value: He figures to go favored off the California Derby win. Even so, you re not looking at anything too short as he faces some ample competition in a big field. He was 5-2 in the California Derby, so he figures around there here. MANA STRIKE (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 77 Trainer: Frank Lucarelli Jockey: Leslie Mawing Pedigree: Papa Clem Kirkela (by Giant s Causeway) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.7 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 48 Sire history: 4 crops of racing age, 218 foals, 2.3% SWs, 0% GSWs Dam s produce record: 4 foals of racing age, 4 winners, dam of stakes-placed Kenai King Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.2 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 53 Formulator Facts: In the past five years, Lucarelli is 1 for 28 (3 percent) in graded stakes, though he s had 11 in the money. He and Mawing are 11 for their last 163 together (6 percent, $0.76 ROI) on synthetic footing. Outlook: He beat a number of these in the Gold Rush at a mile here Dec. 5, so the track suits, the trip suits, and the level suits. He didn t repeat that good run in the Jan. 16 California Derby when sixth (last), but he s also been something of a good-race/bad-race horse, so if that pattern holds, then he s due for a good one here. Value: He was well backed (7-2) in the California Derby but was coming off the win in the Gold Rush. This time, he comes into this off a dull sixth in the California Derby, so his odds certainly figure to float up. For those who still believe, it seems you ll be getting more than fair value if he gets anywhere north of GIOPRESS (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 67 Trainer: Reina Gonzalez Jockey: Alejandro Gomez Pedigree: Gio Ponti Empiress (by Empire Maker) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.9 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 33 Sire history: 2 crops of racing age, 235 foals, 0% SWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 2 winners. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8.2 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 76 Formulator Facts: Gonzalez is 18 for 123 over the past five years (14 percent) on synthetic footing. Gonzalez and Gomez are 0 for 8 together in that time span but do have a second at 20-1 and three thirds at 11-1, 10-1, and Outlook: His maiden win not only came on this track and routing, but it came over a couple of Saturday s foes (Touched by Autism, San Dimas) who coincidentally both came right back to win. Off that, they thought enough of him to ship south for the first time for the Eddie Logan Stakes on turf at Santa Anita on Dec. 31, but after chasing the pace, he gave way. He figures to benefit from this return to his sandbox and this footing, though he s marooned on the far outside. Value: He was sent off at 80-1 in the Eddie Logan, but he was coming off a maiden win on this main track and hadn t been too impressive on turf (two seconds in his only two tries). He s back to his backyard and to footing on which he s proven. Still, he figures in the 20-1 range.

7 El Camino Real Derby Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field AVERAGE WINNING BEYER BEYER SPEED FIGURES Kelly With a Twist Kasseopia Touched by Autism Mr. Coker Oscar Dominguez San Dimas Marqula Tusk Algenon Diplodous Go Long Frank Conversation Mana Strike Giopress Track s mornling line odds FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2011: Silver Medallion, : Daddy Nose Best, : Dice Flavor, : Tamarando, : Metaboss, 86

8 El Camino Real Derby Pace Projection PACE 2 3/4 mile PACE 1 1/2 mile GOLDEN GATE FIELDS, 1 1/8 miles (Tapeta) START F I N I S H 1st: Marqula 2nd: Frank Conversation 3rd: Kasseopia (GB)

9 Southwest Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN Fans of Collected will hope that trainer Bob Baffert brings his usual Oaklawn mojo to Monday s Southwest Stakes, a Kentucky Derby prep featuring a full field of evenly matched 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles. According to Formulator, Baffert is 13 for 29 (45 percent) with a $2.59 return on investment over the past five years at Oaklawn, including three wins in the Southwest. Collected, a maiden winner and Grade 3-placed from his first two starts on turf, successfully transferred that form to dirt in last month s Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Despite being hung out four wide throughout, Collected professionally ran on in the stretch. He drew the rail in the Southwest and can track the pace while saving valuable ground under Martin Garcia. He looms as the horse to beat. Discreetness heads the local contingent after beating Gordy Florida, Synchrony, and Luna de Loco in the Smarty Jones Stakes here on Jan. 18. But he s stuck out in post 14 with a relatively short run to the first turn. He s 3 for 4 on dirt but must avoid an ultra-wide trip. Gordy Florida ran a big race in the Smarty Jones. He contested the pace with the odds-on Toews On Ice, put that one to bed, and was just necked. We ll see how he handles additional distance. Synchrony boasts a beautiful pedigree and can move forward in his second start of the year. Among the quality shippers competing at Oaklawn for the first time is Pennsylvania Nursery winner Bird of Trey, a colt who was caught up in a three-ply pace battle in the Grade 3 Jerome. Siding Spring, Grade 3-placed on turf, couldn t match up with champion Nyquist in the Breeders Cup Juvenile but should appreciate the class relief and can move forward with blinkers. Suddenbreakingnews, nosed by Discreetness in the $250,000 Springboard Mile at Remington Park, owns a strong late kick and is less than a length away from being undefeated from five starts. Cutacorner overtook American Dubai and Torrontes in an optional-claiming race here Jan. 21. Torrontes wears blinkers for the first time Monday and can factor at a price. Whitmore is 2 for 2 on fast dirt and steps up off an 86 Beyer Speed Figure sprint victory. Lecomte Stakes pacesetter Z Royal and recent maiden graduate War Stroll complete the field. NINTH RACE Probable Post 5:09 CST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. Southwst (Grade 3). Purse: $500,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 1 Collected...Garcia M Whitmore...Smith M E American Dubai...De La Cruz W Torrontes...Hill C Synchrony...Bridgmohan S X Suddenbreakingnews...Quinonez L S Discreetness...Court J K Bird of Trey...Navarro J Gordy Florida...Corbett G W Cutacorner...Hamilton Q Siding Spring...Rocco J S Jr Z Royal...Stevens G L Luna de Loco...Santana R Jr War Stroll...Landeros C Coupled: American Dubai and Torrontes; Synchrony and Suddenbreakingnews Blinkers On: Torrontes, Siding Spring

10 Southwest Super Looks ANALYSIS BY BYRON KING PEDIGREE INFORMATION BY DRF BREEDING #3 COLLECTED (Record: , 19 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia Pedigree: City Zip Helena Bay (by Johannesburg) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.5 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 54 Sire history: 12 crops of racing age, 1,043 foals of racing age, 6% SWs, 2.3% GSWs Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 2 starters, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.1 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 79.5 Formulator Facts: California-based Baffert has dominated with shippers to Oaklawn in recent years, winning with 45 percent of such starters over the last five years, with an ROI of $2.59. Seventy-six percent of his runners have run in the top three. Outlook: Never worse than second in three starts, he is the lone graded winner in the field, having won the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita Jan. 9. He is also favorably drawn on the rail in a large field, particularly in light of having tactical speed that allows him to either race up with the leaders or from a couple lengths off the pace. Value: Although the most likely winner of the race, his high-profile connections and recent graded stakes victory will likely result in him starting at or below his 5-2 morning line, which is a short price in a 14-horse field. # 4 WHITMORE (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 86 Trainer: Ron Moquett Jockey: Mike Smith Pedigree: Pleasantly Perfect Melody s Spirit (by Scat Daddy) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.7 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 47 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 483 foals, 4% SWs, 1.4% GSWs Dam s produce record: 1 foal, 1 starter, 1 winner. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 86 Formulator Facts: Moquett has struggled in graded stakes races over the past five years, going 1 for 58 with an ROI of $0.12. The lone winner over that stretch was Far Right, who won the Southwest last year with Mike Smith aboard. Twenty-eight percent of these graded-stakes runners hit the board. Outlook: He had a pair of blowout victories in his two sprints, first when debuting at Churchill Downs in the fall and then in his 3-year-old bow at Oaklawn Jan. 16. He was soundly beaten in between those races when fifth in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot at a route though the race did come in the mud. Value: The addition of Smith will attract mutuel attention and is reflected in his 5-1 morning line, though he shouldn t dip below that price too much with so many options in this race and with Collected likely to prove extremely popular in the betting. #1 AMERICAN DUBAI (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: Rodney Richards Jockey: Walter De La Cruz Pedigree: E Dubai Sweet Review (by Bates Motel) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 47 Sire history: 11 crops of racing age, 705 foals, 4% SWs, 2.2% GSWs Dam s produce record: 8 foals, 5 starters, 5 winners. Dam of stakes winner City Sensation and stakes-placed Dubai Review. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 5.8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 61.2 Formulator Facts: Richards has infrequently competed in prestigious races such as this, typically training lowerclass horses. He has won at an 8 percent rate with all of his stock over the past five years with a $1.21 ROI, and is 0 for 10 in all races at Oaklawn over that time frame. Outlook: He was scratched from a first-level allowance on Saturday at Oaklawn, in which he drew post 12, in favor of this more-demanding but richer spot. He came up empty late in his first route after spurting clear at the top of the stretch, but may have needed that experience, his first around two turns. Value: Coupled with Torrontes at 6-1 odds. Both are mild threats, but the coupling reduces the price for players that like only one of the two. #1A TORRONTES (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Kellyn Gorder Jockey: Channing Hill Pedigree: Macho Uno Airizon (by Boston Harbor) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.9 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 52 Sire history: 10 crops, 778 foals, 5% SWs, 2.2% GSWs Dam s produce record: 5 foals, 3 starters, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.2 furlongs

11 Southwest Super Looks CONTINUED Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 75.5 Formulator Facts: Gorder has won at a 16-percent clip with horses adding blinkers for the first time, as this horse does. That record excludes debuting horses that raced with blinkers. These winners did not surprise the public, however. Modest odds on the winners resulted in a $1.52 ROI Outlook: He has shown steady improvement in his Beyers, going from a 71 in his debut to a 73 second out and then to an 81 when racing in an allowance over this track. A horse with the speed to either set or chase the pace, he makes his first stakes attempt Value: He is part of an entry with American Dubai, and the 2-for-1 offering means he will be half the price he likely would have been if he had not been coupled in the wagering. The morning line on the entry is 6-1. #5 BIRD OF TREY (Record: , 1 Derby point) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: John Servis Jockey: Joshua Navarro Pedigree: Birdstone Take Me Home Too (by Came Home) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.5 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 51 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 516 foals, 3% SWs, 1.9% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals, 1 starter, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 90 Formulator Facts: Over the past five years Servis has won at a 15-percent clip with 3-year-olds, like this one, routing for the second time. But short prices on the winners resulted in a $1.00 ROI. Outlook: Bombed in the Jerome when racing two turns for the first time, fading to be fourth, beaten 16 1/2 lengths and running the second lowest Beyer of his six-race career, a 61. That followed a dominant score in the sevenfurlong Pennsylvania Nursery in which he ran a 90 Beyer at his prior base of Parx with Navarro up. Value: His dismal showing in the Jerome will likely result in him drifting up from his 10-1 line, with bettors questioning his staying ability and whether he can perform at a high level outside Parx. #2 SYNCHRONY (Record: , 2 Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan Pedigree: Tapit Brownie Points (by Forest Wildcat) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.5 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 65 Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,013 foals, 7% SWs, 4.5% GSWs Dam s produce record: 4 foals, 3 starters, 3 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.2 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 72.7 Formulator Facts: Von Hemel is 5 for 34 over the past five years with 3-year-olds racing in graded stakes (15 percent winners and a $2.13 ROI). Among his most successful runners in this class was Caleb s Posse, who won the Grade 1 King s Bishop and Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in Outlook: A son of Tapit, he fell farther off the pace in the Smarty Jones than he had in shorter races in Kentucky last fall, and proved unable to close the necessary gap late, finishing third, beaten two lengths. That was his first start around two turns and came following a short layoff, giving hope that he can move forward off the pace Value: After being just over 3-1 last out, he figures to be about double that price in the Southwest, even starting as an entry with Suddenbreakingnews. #6 Z ROYAL (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 76 Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Gary Stevens Pedigree: Eskendereya Joanne Jubilation (by Monarchos) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.35 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 54 Sire history: 3 crops of racing age, 259 foals, 2% SWs, 0.8% GSWs Dam s produce record: 7 foals, 5 starters, 4 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.1 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 65.6 Formulator Facts: Lukas, for all his success in the Kentucky Derby and preps over his career, has not fared as well in graded stakes for 3-year-olds in recent years, going 7 for 116 (6 percent). Even with horses such as Will Take Charge winning the Rebel in 2013 at 28-1, a $2 wager on each of these 116 starters would have yielded an average return of $1.24. Outlook: He disappointed in the Lecomte when he tested stakes horses and racing two turns for the first time, fading to fifth after setting a quick pace. Look for rating tactics from Stevens given that this horse scored his lone victory from off the pace at Churchill in November. Value: Possessing weak Beyers and having been outrun in the Lecomte, he may stick to his 20-1 morning line, though the Hall of Fame connections of Lukas and Stevens could lower him a few clicks.

12 Southwest Super Looks CONTINUED #7 GORDY FLORIDA (Record: , 4 Derby points) Best Beyer: 85 Trainer: Kenny Smith Jockey: Glen Corbett Pedigree: Cactus Ridge Indianella (by Indian Charlie) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.5 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 50 Sire history: 10 crops of racing age, 467 foals, 6% SWs, 1% GSWs Dam s produce record: 3 foals, 2 starters, 2 winners. Both her winners, Gordy Florida and Tosha Talifero, are stakes-placed. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 5.9 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 83.5 Formulator Facts: Trainer Kenny Smith shows low ROIs in most statistical categories over the past five years, ranging from overall starters ($1.48), to 3-year-olds ($1.60), to runners at Oaklawn ($1.60). He is 0 for 7 in graded stakes over the past five years. Outlook: He outperformed his 21-1 odds in the Smarty Jones, racing on the lead or within a half-length at every call and finishing second, beaten a neck by Discreetness. That was his first route, which came following two sprint victories at Remington Park. Value: His 12-1 morning line might initially appear generous to bettors, but as deep as this field is, and with so many different ways for bettors to go, it is inevitable that some horses will be at least this price. #8 WAR STROLL (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 82 Trainer: Ken McPeek Jockey: Chris Landeros Pedigree: Stroll Gildey (by Gilded Time) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.9 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 49 Sire history: 9 crops, 245 foals, 4% SWs, 1.6% GSWs Dam s produce record: 9 foals, 7 starters, 7 winners. Dam of stakes winners Lil Missknowitall and Tuff Britt, and stakes-placed Cryptohio Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.5 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 65 Formulator Facts: McPeek is 10 for 114 over the past five years with 3-year-olds running in graded stakes, which translates to a 9-percent win mark. A wager on each would have resulted in an average return of $1.05. Outlook: Although he won a maiden race in fast time over this track, it took him six starts to get that elusive victory. And the hike from maiden to allowance company is often challenging enough, much less moving into a graded stakes races. Value: Facing much better than he did in defeating maidens Jan. 28, he is fully deserving of starting at or above his 30-1 morning line. # 9 CUTACORNER (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Jack Van Berg Jockey: Quincy Hamilton Pedigree: Even the Score Pathologist (by Gone West) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 47 Sire history: 9 crops, 416 foals, 3% SWs, 1.2% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals, 2 starters, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 69.5 Formulator Facts: Of Van Berg s 58 winners over the past five years, 34 of them have come over the last 12 months. With better horses and fitting placement, his horses have gone from toss-outs to contenders. He has been hot at the current Oaklawn meet with 7 winners from 29 starters, including a number of longshot winners. Outlook: An improving colt, he has won two of his last three starts, including an allowance over some of today s Southwest Rivals over the Oaklawn strip Jan. 21. He also ran competitively to be fourth in the slop in the Springboard Mile at Remington late last year, finishing just 1 ½ lengths behind Discreetness. Value: He is 12-1 on the morning line, which seems about on target given his form and local success. #10 SIDING SPRING (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 81 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr. Pedigree: Warrior s Reward Legendary Peace (by Peace Rules) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.9 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 45 Sire history: 3 crops, 283 foals, 2% SWs, 0.1% GSWs Dam s produce record: 3 foals, 1 starter, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 81 Formulator Facts: For all of Casse s success, he is a surprising 3 for 56 over the past five years with 3-year-olds racing in graded stakes on dirt. And short odds on the three winners generated a $0.58 ROI. Outlook: He takes the biggest class drop of any horse in the race, coming out of the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, a race in which he ran 10th, beaten five lengths. Considering he drew post 14 for that race, it was a pretty decent effort. Casse also shows faith in his dirt ability by sending

13 Southwest Super Looks CONTINUED him to Oaklawn, which doesn t have a turf course. This horse s first two races came on grass. He adds blinkers. Value: Although a prep race would have been nice to see to prepare him for this stakes start, he does have things to offer and seems a slight overlay at 15-1 morning line. #11 LUNA DE LOCO (Record: , 1 Derby point) Best Beyer: 78 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Pedigree: Malibu Moon Fancy Prancer (by Bertrando) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.1 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 56 Sire history: 14 crops of racing age, 1,475 foals, 6% SWs, 2.4% GSWs Dam s produce record: 10 foals, 8 starters, 8 winners. Dam of stakes winners Miss Sassy Sue, Littlemiss Allison, Robo Willie, and Dakota Sue. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.3 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71.5 Formulator Facts: Asmussen has been surprisingly quiet at the Oaklawn meet, going 5 for 49 and having some shortpriced horses, such as Wrath of Ruthie, lose at short odds. He is 22 for 156 (14 percent) over the past five years with 3-year-olds running in graded stakes, but has just a $1.22 ROI. Outlook: He is a promising colt, having won first out at Aqueduct in a sprint before finishing fourth in the Smarty Jones in his first route. Being as lightly raced as he is, he likely has more room to improve than others in the lineup. Value: 20-1 morning-line odds may prove appealing to those looking a well-bred horse likely to improve. #2X SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (Record: , 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 77 Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Luis Quinonez Pedigree: Mineshaft Uchitel (by Afleet Alex) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.4 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 54 Sire history: 10 crops of racing age, 747 foals, 5% SWs, 2.1% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals, 2 starters, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.25 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 75.5 Formulator Facts: Von Hemel is 5 for 34 over the past five years with 3-year-olds racing in graded stakes (15 percent winners and a $2.13 ROI). Among his most successful runners in this class was Caleb s Posse, who won the Grade 1 King s Bishop and Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in Outlook: He was edged in a tight photo with Discreetness in the Springboard when making his last start on Dec. 13 at Remington. He may have held a home-track advantage that day, with Remington being his base but not the base for Discreetness. This horse has yet to race since but shows steady local works. Value: Part of an entry with Synchrony, he is 6-1 on the morning line. Both have shots, but if you liked him individually, he is going to be a fraction of the he would have been if he had not been coupled. #12 DISCREETNESS (Record: , 10 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83 Trainer: William Fires Jockey: Jon Court Pedigree: Discreet Cat Fondness (by Elusive Quality) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.5 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 48 Sire history: 6 crops of racing age, 526 foals, 5% SWs, 2% GSWs Dam s produce record: 3 foals, 2 starters, 1 winner Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.1 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 70.5 Formulator Facts: Fires won just 7 races from 112 starts in 2015, but has found 2016 significantly more rewarding, going 5 for 17 at Oaklawn alone. Eight of his 17 local runners have hit the board. Outlook: He leads the field with four victories, with two of those coming around two turns in stakes, though by narrow margins. He won the Springboard Mile by a nose and the Smarty Jones over this track by a neck. A wide trip could loom from post 14. Value: He probably would have been the 4-1 or 5-1 second wagering choice in the race if he had not drawn post 14. Instead he is 6-1 and many bettors will probably take a stand against him given his draw and small margins of victory over several of today s opponents, some of whom landed in better posts.

14 Southwest Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field AVERAGE WINNING BEYER BEYER SPEED FIGURES A 2B American Dubai Torrontes Synchrony Suddenbreakingnews Collected Whitmore Bird of Trey Z Royal Gordy Florida War Stroll Cutacorner Siding Spring Luna de Loco Discreetness Track s mornling line odds FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: WINNERS 2011: Archarcharch, *: Castaway, *: Secret Circle, : Super Ninety Nine, : Tapiture, : Far Right, 90 *Run in two divisions

15 2B 1A 1A 2B PACE 2 3/4 mile OAKLAWN, 1/16 miles PACE 1 1/2 mile START F I N I S H 1A 1st: Collected 2nd: Torrontes 3rd: Siding Spring

16 Road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH Sept Iroquois /16M... Churchill Downs...Cocked and Loaded Sept FrontRunner /16M... Santa Anita...Nyquist Oct Breeders Futurity /16M... Keeneland...Brody s Cause Oct Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Greenpointcrusader Oct Grey /16M (S)... Woodbine...Riker Oct BC Juvenile /16M... Keeneland...Nyquist Nov Delta Downs Jackpot /16M... Delta Downs...Exaggerator Nov Remsen /8M... Aqueduct...Mohaymen Nov Kentucky Jockey Club /16M... Churchill Downs...Airoforce Dec Los Alamitos Futurity /16M... Los Alamitos...Mor Spirit Jan Jerome... 1 mile 70 yds... Aqueduct...Flexibility Jan Sham... 1M... Santa Anita...Collected Jan Lecomte... 1 mile 70 yds... Fair Grounds...Mo Tom Jan Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park...Discreetness Jan Holy Bull /16M... Gulfstream...Mohaymen Jan Withers /16M... Aqueduct...Sunny Ridge Feb Robert B. Lewis /16M... Santa Anita Park...Mor Spirit Feb El Camino Real Deby /8M... Golden Gate Feb Southwest /16M... Oaklawn Park

17 Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...WINNER... BEYER...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH Feb Risen Star /16M... Fair Grounds Feb Fountain of Youth /16M... Gulfstream March 5... Gotham /16M... Aqueduct March Tampa Bay Derby /16M... Tampa Bay Downs March San Felipe /16M... Santa Anita March Rebel /16M... Oaklawn March Sunland Derby /8M... Sunland Park March Louisiana Derby /8M... Fair Grounds March UAE Derby /16M... Meydan April 2... Florida Derby /8M... Gulfstream April 2... Spiral /8M... Turfway Park April 9... Wood Memorial /8M... Aqueduct April 9... Blue Grass /8M... Keeneland April 9... Santa Anita Derby /8M... Santa Anita April Arkansas Derby /8M... Oaklawn Park April Lexington /16M... Keeneland

18 Kentucky Derby 2016 Point Standings (through Feb. 7) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS 1... Nyquist... Doug O Neill $1,580, Mor Spirit... Bob Baffert , Mohaymen... Kiaran McLaughlin , Sunny Ridge... Jason Servis , Exaggerator... Keith Desormeaux , Flexibility... Chad Brown , Brody s Cause... Dale Romans , Greenpointcrusader... Dominick Schettino , Swipe... Keith Desormeaux , Mo Tom... Tom Amoss , Airoforce... Mark Casse , Cocked and Loaded... Larry Rivelli , Discreetness... Williams Fires , Riker... Nick Gonzalez , Collected... Bob Baffert , Voricity... James Lawrence II , Rated R Superstar... Kenny McPeek , Toews on Ice... Bob Baffert , Tom s Ready... Dallas Stewart , Uncle Lino... Gary Sherlock , Gordy Florida... Kenny Smith , Let s Meet in Rio... Bob Baffert , Kasseopia-GB... Charles Fellowes , Harlan Punch... Tom Amoss , Found Money... Doug O Neill ,000 NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS... +Hollywood Don... Peter Miller , I malreadythere... Jerry Hollendorfer , Fellowship... Stanley Gold , Sail Ahoy... Shug McGaughey III , Portfolio Manager... Chad Brown , Tizzarunner... Mark Casse , Gift Box... Chad Brown , Adventist... Leah Gyarmati , In Equality... Leah Gyarmati , Uncle Walter... Mike Maker , I Will Score... Jerry Hollendorfer , Synchrony... Donnie Von Hemel , Unbridled Outlaw... Dale Romans , Laoban... Eric Guillot , Dressed in Hermes... Janet Armstrong , Bird of Trey... John Servis , Van Damme... Robert Gorham , Rare Candy... David Hofmans , Sticksstatelydude... Greg Burchell , Urlacher... Eoin Harty , Conquest Big E... Mark Casse , Gun Runner... Steve Asmussen , Destin... Todd Pletcher , Luna de Loco... Steve Asmussen , Conquest Windycity... Mark Casse , not nominated to Triple Crown