MAY 21, 2016 PIMLICO. American Pharoah and jockey Victor Espinoza (on rail) splash home victoriously in the 2015 Preakness

Transcription

1 MAY 21, 2016 PIMLICO American Pharoah and jockey Victor Espinoza (on rail) splash home victoriously in the 2015 Preakness XPRESS ( ) National Gambling Support Line

2 Fellow Racing Fan, Welcome to Xpressbet s Preakness Wager Guide! Congratulations to the connections of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist owners Zillah and Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O Neill, his crew and jockey Mario Gutierrez. The Kentucky Derby, first leg of the Triple Crown, is in the books and Nyquist is headed to Pimlico for the Preakness Stakes in an attempt to move one step closer to becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. It s probably prudent to leave actual Preakness handicapping to the experts and Xpressbet s free Preakness Wager Guide has a group of veterans who know their way around the track. We ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. Additionally, just about everything you ll need to handicap the race like a pro is in the guide. You ll also find useful Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more. Xpressbet covers the race from top to bottom in the guide and also on the web site, including daily guide updates beginning Tuesday, May 17 and a revised guide online Friday, May 20. Xpressbet will offer online, phone and mobile device wagering on the final two legs of the Triple Crown Preakness and Belmont Stakes (June 11). We invite you to wager with us for these outstanding events and throughout the racing year. As a current account holder you already know that Xpressbet is the best place to watch and wager on worldwide harness and Thoroughbred racing. If you don t already have an Xpressbet account, act now and earn up to $125 in bonus wagering credit! Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com. Please enjoy this complimentary Preakness Wager Guide and return to Xpressbet for daily guide updates and to wager on the Preakness, the Belmont and non-stop, daily worldwide racing action. The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2016 Preakness Stakes and we look forward to serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future. Sincerely, Ron Luniewski President Xpressbet

3 6 LANI (30/1) Owner: Koji Maeda Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga Jockey: Yutaka Take 7 COLLECTED (10/1) Owner: Speedway Stable, LLC Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Javier Castellano 1 CHERRY WINE (20/1) Owner: William Pacella & Frank L. Jones Jr. Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corey Lanerie 8 LAOBAN (30/1) Owner: Southern Equine Stable, LLC & McCormick Racing, LLC Trainer: Eric Guillot Jockey: Florent Geroux 2 UNCLE LINO (20/1) Owner: Tom Mansor, Purple Shamrock Racing & Gary Sherlock Trainer: Gary Sherlock Jockey: Fernando Perez 9 ABIDING STAR (30/1) Owner: Stonehedge, LLC Trainer: Ned Allard Jockey: J.D. Acosta 3 NYQUIST (3/5) Owner: Reddam Racing, LLC Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez 10 FELLOWSHIP (30/1) Owner: Jacks or Better Farm, Inc. Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano 4 AWESOME SPEED (30/1) Owner: Colts Neck Stables, LLC Trainer: Alan Goldberg Jockey: Jevian Toledo 11 STRADIVARI (8/1) Owner: Tabor, Smith, Magnier & Gunther Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez 5 EXAGGERATOR (3/1) Owner: Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners, et al Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Watch Us on YouTube

4 Preakness Wagering Facts by Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness Stakes events. Win-Place-Show Odds (Last 15 years, Odds to $1) Win Odds Average: 4.29 High: (Oxbow, 2013) Low:.20 (Big Brown, 2008) Notable: Preakness winner has been 3-1 or less in 12 of the last 15 years. Place Odds Average: High: (Magic Weisner, 2002) Low: 1.30 (Street Sense, 2007) Notable: 4 times in the last 15 years the runner-up has been 20-1 or more. Show Odds Average: High: (Hemingway s Key, 2006) Low: 2.80 (Congaree, 2001) Notable: No show horse under 4-1 odds since Exacta Payoffs (Last 15 years, $2 Payoffs) Average: $ High: $ (War Emblem-Magic Weisner, 2002) Low: $18.20 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014) Notable: Last year s exacta paid $ despite heavilyfavored American Pharoah winning. Trifecta Payoffs (Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs) Average: $ High: $3, (Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway s Key, 2006) Low: $35.40 (I ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012) Notable: Once since 2012 the trifecta paid or more. Superfecta Payoffs (Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs) Average: $3, High: $11, (Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway s Key- Brother Derek, 2006) Low: $ (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin-Social Inclusion- General a Rod, 2014) Notable: Only 4 times in the bet s 18-year history has the superfecta returned a 5-digit payoff. Highest-Priced Superfecta Finishers (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin Magic Weisner nd Macho Again nd Hemingway s Key rd Tale of Verve nd Flying Private th Racecar Rhapsody th Lowest-Priced Favorites (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin..20 Big Brown st.50 California Chrome st.50 Barbaro 2006 dnf.70 Smarty Jones st.70 Orb th.90 American Pharoah st 1.30 Street Sense nd 1.80 Rachel Alexandra st 1.90 Funny Cide st 1.90 Super Saver th Expert Selection Grid Expert Bob Neumeier Jeremy Plonk Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk (NBC Sports) (Horseplayernow.com) (XBTV) (Santa Anita) (Daily Racing Form) (SiriusXM Radio) First Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Second Exaggerator Cherry Wine Stradivari Exaggerator Fellowship Exaggerator Third Stradivari Exaggerator Exaggerator Collected Exaggerator Cherry Wine Fourth Collected Stradivari Cherry Wine Stradivari Stradivari Fellowship

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6 Meet The 2016 Preakness Contenders by Johnny D Xpressbet.com Nyquist The winner of the 142nd Kentucky Derby extended his unbeaten record to eight races by outrunning 19 foes on the First Saturday in May. Nyquist stalked a hot early Derby pace, took the lead in the stretch, and never really was threatened by the closing bid of runner-up EXAGGERATOR. Can Nyquist extend his unblemished record through the Preakness and on to the Belmont? Why not? He s fast, tractable, brave and very talented. He s got a fantastic demeanor and experienced connections that have been there before with I ll Have Another in 2012, a bid for Triple Crown immortality that ended just short of the Belmont starting gate. Nyquist will be an overwhelming favorite in Baltimore and by extension, the choice to have a chance to deliver fans back-to-back Triple Crowns. PREAKNESS WINNERS AS HORSE OF THE YEAR Year Horse AMERICAN PHAROAH CALIFORNIA CHROME RACHEL ALEXANDRA CURLIN POINT GIVEN CHARISMATIC SUNDAY SILENCE Exaggerator AFFIRMED It s understandable if Exaggerator SEATTLE SLEW is beginning to develop a complex SECRETARIAT He s been defeated four times by NYQUIST and that s as many times DAMASCUS as they ve met. Exaggerator isn t BOLD RULER accustomed to losing to anyone else NASHUA In fact, in 10 starts he s only lost twice HILL PRINCE to a winning foe other than NYQUIST CAPOT If Exaggerator is a bit NYQUISTshy, his trainer, Keith Desormeaux, CITATION must be downright terrified of the ASSAULT Kentucky Derby winner. He has COUNT FLEET saddled a horse to finish second to WHIRLAWAY NYQUIST in an absolutely amazing six out of eight races, including five CHALLEDON Grade 1s! Desormeaux-trained Swipe WAR ADMIRAL was second to NYQUIST four times and Exaggerator has completed the NYQUIST-over-all exacta twice. With those trends in place it figures that the Preakness exacta can t possibly come back any way other than NYQUIST over Exaggerator just like the Kentucky Derby. Will Exaggerator find an extra gear in the Preakness Stakes and finally cure the barn s case of NYQUIST-induced seconditis? Collected New shooters horses that did not compete in the Kentucky Derby--always are an interesting aspect of handicapping the Preakness Stakes. This year, one of those is Lexington Stakes winner Collected, from the powerful Bob Baffert stable. Collected won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland last out to improve his record to four wins in six starts. The dual Grade 3 stakes winner by City Zip has speed and, according to clocker reports, worked very well at Churchill Downs during Derby week. Trainer Bob Baffert has an outstanding Preakness record that includes six wins: Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Point Given (2001), War Emblem (2002), Lookin At Lucky (2010) and American Pharoah (2015)! What Baffert hasn t done is win the Preakness with a horse that did not compete in the Kentucky Derby. Collected s connections would like to see him join a select group of sophs that have turned that trick: Red Bullet (2000), Bernardini (2006) and the filly Rachel Alexandra (2009). Stradivari Following a pair of runaway wins, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is compelled to challenge Stradivari to step up in class to meet Grade 1 Preakness foes. Horseplayers will need to decide if the colt is talented enough to strut his stuff with the big boys off two facile victories a maiden by more than 11 lengths at Gulfstream and a first-level allowance by 14-plus lengths at Keeneland. His running style ought to put him in contention from the start, but he s not a runoff type, so he should be able to relax off any early duel that might develop. He s by Medaglia d Oro, so distance shouldn t be an issue. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who has been aboard for all three of the colt s starts, is expected to retain the mount in the Preakness.

7 A Muddied Preakness Picture by Eddie Olczyk NBC Sports Analyst Analysis: The forecast for a wet track on Saturday changes everything, and I am banking my analysis on that forecast. With up to an inch of rain ready to fall over Pimlico, I m going all in on muddy conditions that could significantly change the complexion of the race. For as good as NYQUIST has been, and was phenomenal in the Kentucky Derby, the question is whether or not EXAGGERATOR can be beaten on an off track? The Santa Anita Derby winner moves way up on it and he s my key in the Preakness. Main Contenders: It s all about EXAGGERATOR and NYQUIST. Going into the Derby, you couldn t argue with NYQUIST and what he had accomplished. And you still can t. My change of heart in the Preakness is not about what NYQUIST can t do, but rather what EXAGGERATOR can do... specifically on an off track. Expect both to run big races, with a slight edge going to EXAGGERATOR. Value Plays: The off track and hot pace could benefit CHERRY WINE, and he s the only price horse I have any feel for in the Preakness. His lone effort on a wet track was very impressive and his jockey, Corey Lanerie, is one of the best in the business at saving ground with closers and bringing them up the rail. Look for him to get a good, ground-saving trip Saturday. None of the others inspires me. Value in this race will have to come in the exotics and identifying the horses that can jump up and grab a minor share of the prize. Wagering Strategies ($100): $30 Win: EXAGGERATOR ($30) $12 Exacta: EXAGGERATOR over NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE ($24) $5 Exacta: NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE over EXAGGERATOR ($10) $1 Trifecta Part Wheel: EXAGERRATOR with NYQUIST, CHERRY WINE with ALL ($18) $1 Trifecta Part Wheel: EXAGGERATOR with ALL with NYQUIST, CHERRY WINE ($18) Know This: Derby Do-Over 10 times in the last 19 years the Kentucky Derby winner has won the Preakness. No-Reach Zone Only 2 horses have won the Preakness at odds of 20-1 or more. Bet-Back Special American Pharoah was the 11th Derby winner in the last 15 years to be the Preakness favorite. Fenced In In the last 65 years, four starters from the rail have won the Preakness American Pharoah (2015), Tabasco Cat (1994), Bally Ache (1960) and Hill Prince (1950). Well, Excluuuuude Me! With apologies to comedian Steve Martin, horses excluded from the Kentucky Derby have had solid success at Pimlico. Tale of Verve was runner-up here a year ago; Hemingway s Key was third in 06; and Rock Hard Ten was second in 04. More Than Half Favorites are a strong 72-for-141 in the Preakness; odds-on choices are now 18-for-28 after American Pharoah s popular score at 4-to-5. Picks 1. EXAGGERATOR 2. NYQUIST 3. CHERRY WINE 4. FELLOWSHIP

8 Caveat Emptor by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter Analysis: Handicappers are by nature copycats. They believe what happened yesterday will also occur later today. Of course, that rarely happens. But in NYQUIST S case, it is caveat emptor translated, let-the-buyer-beware. His big win in the Kentucky Derby looks to the naked eye like what SHOULD happen in the Preakness Stakes, only at 1-5 odds, not 2-1. The scenario looks like a carbon copy. NYQUIST uses his cruising speed to stalk a rapid pace, takes over at will, and draws off to yet another victory. So, if you believe it (and I do), to defy his unblemished record is truly a case of caveat emptor. Main Contenders: NYQUIST, of course. EXAGGERATOR will try for the fifth time to defeat his nemesis. His second-place finish in the Derby was impressive, but he looks to play the part of an also-ran, like Sham and Alydar in Triple Crown history. Off/sloppy track conditions should be irrelevant to this conversation (Take that, Eddie Olcyzk!). EXAGGERATOR actually ran faster in the Derby than he did when supposedly `moving up on the sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby. If it s fresh blood you seek, STRADIVARI may be the choice. He s 2-for-2 around two turns and trained by the talented Todd Pletcher. His 3-year-old speed figure measures up, although it took place in first-level allowance at Keeneland. Value Plays: Yikes. If you back the unbeaten NYQUIST, then the win pool is out. The next stop is the will pays for the exacta pool to try and hit the 1-2 finishers and increase the 1-5 value on the Derby champion. But then whom do you choose? My plan is to load up on the same combination that clicked at Churchill Downs in the exacta NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR. Price shoppers will go hunting that the chalk has an off day. About 90% of the time, that is my personal choice to click on a long-haul basis. Not now. Wagering Strategies ($100): $70 Exacta: NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR ($70) $30 Exacta: NYQUIST over STRADIVARI ($30) Preakness Stakes History: The Last... Kentucky Derby winner to win: American Pharoah (2015) Kentucky Derby runner-up to win: Prairie Bayou (1993) Kentucky Derby show horse to win: Curlin (2007) Kentucky Derby off-the-board finisher to win: Oxbow (2013) Non-Kentucky Derby alum to win: Rachel Alexandra (2009) Stats & Trends: Derby Winners in Preakness (Last 15 Years) Year Horse Fin. Odds 2015 American Pharoah 1st 4-5* 2014 California Chrome 1st 1-2* 2013 Orb 4th 3-5* 2012 I ll Have Another 1st Animal Kingdom 2nd 2-1* 2010 Super Saver 8th 9-5* 2009 Mine That Bird 2nd Big Brown 1st 1-5* 2007 Street Sense 2nd 6-5* 2006 Barbaro dnf 1-2* 2005 Giacomo 3rd Smarty Jones 1st 3-5* 2003 Funny Cide 1st 9-5* 2002 War Emblem 1st 5-2* 2001 Monarchos 6th 2-1 *Preakness Favorite Derby Runner-Ups in Preakness (Last 15 Years) Year Horse Fin. Odds 2015 Firing Line 7th did not compete did not compete Bodemeister 2nd 8-5* 2011 did not compete did not compete Pioneerof The Nile 11th did not compete Hard Spun 3rd did not compete Closing Argument 9th Lion Heart 4th did not compete Proud Citizen 3rd did not compete Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR 3. STRADIVARI 4. COLLECTED

9 Exotic Wagering Chart Preakness Day can produce some juicy exotic payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack. EXACTA BOX: ($1 Wager) 2 horse box... $2 3 horse box... $6 4 horse box...$12 5 horse box...$20 6 horse box...$30 7 horse box...$42 8 horse box...$56 EXACTA WHEEL: ($1 Wager) One Horse with All 6 horse field... $5 7 horse field... $6 8 horse field... $7 9 horse field... $8 10 horse field... $9 TRIFECTA BOX: ($.50 Wager) 3 Horse Box... $3 4 Horse Box... $12 5 Horse Box...$30 6 Horse Box...$60 7 Horse Box...$105 8 Horse Box...$168 TRIFECTA WHEEL: ($.50 Wager) One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field...$15 8 Horse Field...$21 9 Horse Field...$28 10 Horse Field...$36 One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/All/2,3 or 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or All/2,3/1) 7 Horse Field... $5 8 Horse Field... $6 9 Horse Field... $7 10 Horse Field... $8 TRIFECTA KEY: ($.50 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others... $3 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others... $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others...$10 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others...$15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others...$21 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) SUPERFECTA BOX: ($.10 Wager) 4 Horse Box... $ Horse Box...$12 6 Horse Box...$36 SUPERFECTA WHEEL: ($.10 Wager) One Horse with All with All with All (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 7 Horse Field.... $12 8 Horse Field....$21 9 Horse Field....$ Horse Field...$50.40 One Horse with Two Horses with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field.... $4 8 Horse Field.... $6 9 Horse Field.... $ Horse Field...$11.20 SUPERFECTA KEY: ($.10 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others... $.60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others... $2.40 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others... $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others...$12 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others...$21 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

10 Fluke-less Derby Winner by Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com Analyst Analysis: The Kentucky Derby victory by NYQUIST clocked in the Top 15 all-time at nearly every point of call, including the wire. So, while the speed and performance gurus got it wrong on this runner heading into Louisville, the public did not. At 2.30-to-1 odds, NYQUIST was the heaviest favorite in a Kentucky Derby field of 20 in nearly 80 years. That s about as all-in for a favorite as you can be, and when the betting choices at post time click the superfecta in exact order, it s hard to imagine any fluky explanation. Now we head to Pimlico with only a few possibilities to flip the script. Main Contenders: NYQUIST obviously stands out. Derby runner-up EXAGGERATOR has four times fallen short of his rival, but the Alydar to this Affirmed has narrowed the margin of defeat in each and every bid so far. Former Maryland riding kingpin Kent Desormeaux could be worth an extra length or two at his old Pimlico stomping grounds, but EXAGGERATOR could be an underlay if the track turns up sloppy as predicted. His fair odds drop from 7-2 on a fast track to what could be actual odds of 2-1 or 9-5 in the goo, and that s too short of a number. Rising star, STRADIVARI, immediately harkened Preakness when dominating a good allowance field at Keeneland. Todd Pletcher rarely shows up with a runner in the middle jewel, so if he s got one here, take notice. Value Plays: With a tremendous amount of new speed possible for the Preakness, including LAOBAN, AWESOME SPEED, COLLECTED and even Parx raider ABIDING STAR, the early pressure could set this race up to fall apart to deep closers for the underneath positions. CHERRY WINE should offer a fair price from off the pace and Rebel Stakes alumni have been pure dynamite in this race historically. While everyone knows of EXAGGERATOR and his wet-track prowess, CHERRY WINE offers a similar running style and affinity for the slop, but at what should be nearly 10 times the price. If looking for another late-running bomber, the draw and pace scenario could help FELLOWSHIP light the bottom of the super. Wagering Strategies ($100): $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over CHERRY WINE ($100) Stats & Trends: Fastest Preakness Stakes Year Horse Time 1973 Secretariat 1: Tank s Prospect 1:53 2/ Louis Quatorze 1:53 2/ Curlin 1:53 2/ Gate Dancer 1:53 3/ Summer Squall 1:53 3/ Sunday Silence 1:53 4/5 Fastest Fractions Dist. Time Horse 1/4 :22 2/5 (Tied 4 times) 1/2 :45 Bold Forbes (1976) 3/4 1:09 Bold Forbes (1976) Mile 1:34 1/5 Sunday Silence (1989) Chief s Crown (1985) Secretariat (1973) Final 1:53 Secretariat (1973) Half-Mile Leaders Year Horse Finish 2015 American Pharoah 1st 2014 Pablo Del Monte 6th 2013 Oxbow 1st 2012 Bodemeister 2nd 2011 Flashpoint 14th 2010 First Dude 2nd 2009 Rachel Alexandra 1st 2008 Gayego 11th Know This: The New Crew Since 1983, the only Preakness winners who skipped the Kentucky Derby were Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra in Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. CHERRY WINE 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. STRADIVARI

11 What Else You Got? by Jeff Siegel XBTV Analyst Analysis: You may have thought a $6.60 winning payoff for an unbeaten, Breeders Cup winning, Eclipse Award champion in the Kentucky Derby was, in retrospect, generous. It was, but don t count on getting anywhere near that same price in the Preakness. Those who doubted the credentials of NYQUIST entering the first jewel of the Triple Crown focused primarily on his modest speed figures, especially in route races, and his pedigree, which leaned much more towards speed than stamina and therefore placed doubt over his ability to handle the Derby s 10-furlong trip. Those questions were answered, emphatically. Now, what else you got? Main Contenders: STRADIVARI has started only three times and has never faced stakes competition, but he s won his last two by a combined 25 1/2-lengths and he earned a triple-digit Beyer number in his most recent outing. He may very well have more raw talent than any horse NYQUIST has ever faced. Value Plays: There will be plenty of value available if you re committed to beating NYQUIST, but if you find that exercise futile, you d better have a strong opinion in the exacta or trifecta. STRADIVARI may not be seasoned enough to handle NYQUIST, but he s good enough to beat everybody else. And his style suggests he ll draft into an ideal second-flight position and have every chance to pounce when it counts. Wagering Strategies ($100): $80 Exacta: NYQUIST over STRADIVARI ($80) $20 Exacta: STRADIVARI over NYQUIST ($20) Nyquist Extras He is the eighth unbeaten Derby winner in history, first to be 8-for-8 since Majestic Prince (1969). He is the first unbeaten 2-year-old champion to win the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew (1977, won Triple Crown) and joins Morvich (1922) and Regret (1915, champion 2-year-old filly of 14) as just the fourth runner ever to complete the parlay. Nyquist s $6.60 Kentucky Derby win payoff matches Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) as lowest $2 win payoff since Spectacular Bid $3.20 in He was the heaviest individual favorite (2.30-to-1) in a 20-horse Derby field since War Admiral in 1937 (won at 1.60-to-1). Stats & Trends: Wire-to-Wire Winners (Last 50 Years) Year Horse 2015 American Pharoah* 2013 Oxbow * 2009 Rachel Alexandra * 1996 Louis Quartorze * 1982 Aloma s Ruler 1972 Bee Bee Bee *Did not lead at start call. Last-to-First Winners (Since 1910) Year Horse Strs. Behind ½ Mile 1974 Little Current /2 lengths 1961 Carry Back /2 lengths 1952 Blue Man /2 lengths 1941 Whirlaway 9 9 lengths Successful Locals (Last 25 Years) Year Horse Fin Sweetnorthernsaint 2nd 2005 Scrappy T 2nd 2002 Magic Weisner 2nd 1997 Captain Bodgit 3rd 1995 Oliver s Twist 2nd Know This: It s Good to be a Rebel Last year, American Pharoah joined an impressive recent list of Oaklawn Park s Rebel Stakes alumni to succeed in the Preakness: Smarty Jones (2004), Afleet Alex (2005), Curlin (2007), Lookin At Lucky (2010) and Oxbow (2013). Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. STRADIVARI 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. CHERRY WINE

12 All Signs Point to Nyquist by Jon White Santa Anita Morning Line Oddsmaker Analysis: Based on past results, the 2016 Preakness winner probably ran in the Kentucky Derby. Only three of the last 32 Preakness winners (Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009) did not start in the Derby. Additionally, in the last 14 years the Kentucky Derby winner often has gone on to take the Preakness--three of the last four years and seven of the last 14. That bodes well for undefeated NYQUIST, who extended his winning streak to eight in the Run for the Roses. Main Contenders: The main contenders are the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby, NYQUIST and EXAGGERATOR. These two talented colts, well clear of the other 18 starters at the finish of the Kentucky Derby, now have met four times, with NYQUIST winning each. Can EXAGGERATOR finally defeat NYQUIST in the Preakness? It s doubtful, though not impossible. EXAGGERATOR was gaining on NYQUIST toward the end of the Derby, but the shorter distance of the Preakness probably works in NYQUIST S favor. Perhaps the best hope for EXAGGERATOR and those trying to beat NYQUIST in Baltimore is if coming bªck in just two weeks somehow is too much for NYQUIST to handle. But even that seems unlikely because NYQUIST is going into the Preakness relatively fresh, having made just two starts this year before the Kentucky Derby. Value Plays: COLLECTED won the Lexington Stakes by four-lengths at Keeneland for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Preakness six times, including last year with Triple Crown conqueror American Pharoah. STRADIVARI looked terrific when he won his initial 2016 start by 14 1/2-lengths at Keeneland, but I was not nearly as impressed by his subsequent workout in company at Churchill Downs with Destin who then finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Wagering Strategies ($100): $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR ($100) Stats & Trends: Failed Derby Winners Year Horse Fin Super Saver 8th 2006 Barbaro dnf 2001 Monarchos 6th 1991 Strike The Gold 6th 1984 Swale 7th 1983 Sunny s Halo 6th 1970 Dust Commander 9th 1965 Lucky Debonair 7th 1962 Decidedly 8th 1923 Zev 12th Winners Who Skipped Derby (Since 1970) Year Horse 2009 Rachel Alexandra 2006 Bernardini 2000 Red Bullet 1983 Deputed Testamony 1982 Aloma s Ruler 1980 Codex 1972 Bee Bee Bee Where Winners Were Bred Wins State 96 Kentucky 8 Maryland 7 Florida 6 Pennsylvania 6 Virginia Preakness Stakes History: The Last... Kentucky Derby exacta to repeat 1-2 in Preakness: I ll Have Another-Bodemeister (2012) Kentucky Derby trifecta to repeat in Preakness: Affirmed-Alydar-Believe It (1978) Gelding to win: Funny Cide (2003) Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR 3. COLLECTED 4. STRADIVARI

13 Gem of an Exacta by Dick Jerardi Daily Racing Form Columnist Analysis: The Kentucky Derby had just a few speed horses and one of them, NYQUIST, also happened to be the best horse. It was domination from the start, NYQUIST looking like the winner every step of the trip. Accomplished Derby winners rarely lose the Preakness and NYQUIST, with his perfect record, nearly $5 million in earnings and five Grade 1 wins at five different tracks, is incredibly accomplished. There is a chance the Preakness could have a few more speed horses than the Derby, but NYQUIST is as versatile as he is fast so it is hard to imagine an uncomfortable scenario. There is also this: NYQUIST is fast enough to have been on or just off the lead in four sprint races, so even when it looks like there is other speed, NYQUIST often outruns that speed from the start. This horse s style reminds me of Smarty Jones, another unbeaten Derby winner who went on to win the Preakness by the biggest margin in the race s history. Main Contenders: NYQUIST was nine-lengths in front of EXAGGERATOR at the quarter pole in the Derby, one and one-quarter lengths at the finish. That sounds interesting unless you kept watching past the wire. NYQUIST S lead actually was extended during the gallop out. EXAGGERATOR was never going by. Trailing in second and third behind NYQUIST in Kentucky were horses that had combined to win the Santa Anita Derby, Delta Jackpot, Saratoga Special, Louisiana Derby and Risen Star. The key word is trailing. NYQUIST has finished in front of 79 horses so far, including poor EXAGGERATOR four times. EXAGGERATOR is 4-for-6 in races that do not include NYQUIST. Several of the newcomers have serious early speed and good speed figures. They would include LAOBAN, STRADIVARI and UNCLE LINO. Value Plays: Good luck trying to beat NYQUIST, but if you must try, you could do worse than to fall on Lexington Stakes winner COLLECTED, an improving colt that will need another big jump to win. FELLOWSHIP is my play for the exotics at a price, closing to pick up the pieces left behind by the speed. Wagering Strategies ($100): $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over FELLOWSHIP ($100) Nyquist Extras Nyquist s $4.95 million earned is the second-most ever exiting a Derby. Smarty Jones $5 million Centennial Season Bonus from Oaklawn Park pushed him to $6,763,155. Nyquist s 2:01.31 Kentucky Derby time rates 14th-best in history and fastest since Funny Cide in Stats & Trends: Race of Champions (Preakness Winner was Champion 3-year-old in 13 of the last 15 years.) Year Horse 2015 American Pharoah 2014 California Chrome 2012 I ll Have Another 2010 Lookin At Lucky 2009 Rachel Alexandra (filly) 2008 Big Brown 2007 Curlin 2006 Bernardini 2005 Afleet Alex 2004 Smarty Jones 2003 Funny Cide 2002 War Emblem 2001 Point Given 2015 Preakness Handle (Millions, Except for Double) Pool Handle Win,Place, Show $19.5 Trifecta $11.7 Exacta $ 9.0 Superfecta $ 6.5 Pick Four $ 2.4 Susan /Preakness Double $677k Largest Preakness Crowds Attendance Year Winner 131, American Pharoah 123, California Chrome 121, I ll Have Another 121, Curlin Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. FELLOWSHIP 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. STRADIVARI

14 Empty Net Goal for Nyquist by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host Analysis: As mentioned annually, runners contesting the Preakness off favorable (or forgivable) Derby efforts should be the foundation of your wagers. In the last 14 Preakness editions, 12 winners of the Woodlawn Vase arrived from Louisville after positive results. Bernardini (2006) and Rachel Alexandra (2009) were exceptions. The 2016 Preakness analysis must start with three from the Derby - NYQUIST, EXAGGERATOR and ninth-place finisher, LANI. Main Contenders: It appears this Preakness will feature more authentic pace types than the Derby, but it s been established that NYQUIST can adjust to most conceivable scenarios. It s hard to envision a development where any of the Derby runners or newcomers deny him. EXAGGERATOR was courageous in defeat two weeks ago but the record of Derby runners up in Maryland is weak. Value Plays: CHERRY WINE fell just short of a bid to make the Derby gate, but has had extra time to prepare for the Preakness and has been working forwardly for this start. He and another closer, FELLOWSHIP, have styles that fit the race flow well. Talented, developing UNCLE LINO forced his way into the field by following up his Santa Anita Derby third with a win in the California Chrome Stakes, but will have to be better than LAOBAN, COLLECTED, STRADIVARI and AWESOME SPEED on the front end. Wagering Strategies ($100): $5 Trifecta Key: NYQUIST with EXAGGERATOR, CHERRY WINE, UNCLE LINO, FELLOWSHIP and COLLECTED ($100) West Coast Derby Winners in Preakness Since 89 Year Horse Finish 2016 Nyquist TBD 2015 American Pharoah 1st 2014 California Chrome 1st 2012 I ll Have Another 1st 2005 Giacomo 3rd 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2nd 1999 Charismatic 1st 1998 Real Quiet 1st 1997 Silver Charm 1st 1989 Sunday Silence 1st Stats & Trends: Longshot Winners (15-1 Odds or Higher) $2 Payoff Horse Year $48.80 Master Derby 1975 $45.60 Coventry 1925 $40.70 Display 1926 $39.40 Bee Bee Bee 1972 $32.80 Oxbow 2013 $32.00 Hindus 1900 $32.00 Don Enrique 1907 New Millennium Blowouts Lengths Horse Year 11 1/2 Smarty Jones /4 Funny Cide American Phoarah /4 Big Brown /4 Bernardini 2006 Baffert s Baltimore Beauties Year Preakness Winner 2015 American Pharoah 2010 Lookin At Lucky 2002 War Emblem 2001 Point Given 1998 Real Quiet 1997 Silver Charm Know This: Two Digits Too Much? Only four horses have finished worse than ninth in the Kentucky Derby and rebounded to win the Preakness most recently Louis Quatorze in 1996 (16th). Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR 3. CHERRY WINE 4. FELLOWSHIP