SHA TIN 13/12/2015. Quinellas Units

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Patrick Robbins
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1 SHA TIN 13/12/2015 Track: A (good). This rail position historically does sometimes have a 'fence off' aspect to it but it is not consistent & has happened less often last couple of seasons, so assessing as fair with tempo most important factor. Market Guide: ^ Expect to run longer. v Expect to run shorter. Note, suggested bets based on current/expected HK tote odds which can change dramatically. As a guide to likely firmers, strong support in Hong Kong quinella and quinella place (duet) pools - which are much larger than the win pool usually hits before the same runners are slammed in the win pool. HKJC odds display lights up green and then brown to show solid and then stronger backing. Maps: note maps in HK racing very fluid. Fields declared 3 days before, there is no other racing to distract jockeys, owners & trainers and they have a long time to work out pace & often change tactics accordingly, even radically. There is no requirement to notify any change of tactics. Race 1 Class m ENORMOUS HONOUR SUPER FLUKE >>>>>>>>>> LAUGH OUT LOUD JOLLY JOLLY >>>>>>>>>>>> 3 MAGNETISM WINGOLD >>>> 4 MODERN TSAR 9.2 ^ 11 MODERN TSAR >>>> PAKISTAN BABY RUN FORREST >>>>>>>>>>>> 6 SUPER FLUKE 40 ^ 9 ENORMOUS HONOUR >>>>>>> 7 JUN GONG 57 8 PEOPLE'S KNIGHT >>>>>>>>>> PEOPLE'S KNIGHT 4.1 ^ 7 PAKISTAN BABY >>>>>>> 9 HAPPY JOURNEY 63 6 JUN GONG >>>>>>> JOLLY JOLLY 6.6 V 5 HAPPY JOURNEY >>>>>>> 11 OVETT 32 4 OVETT >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> RUN FORREST MAGNETISM >>>> 13 TEN SPEED 83 2 TEN SPEED >>>> 14 WINGOLD LAUGH OUT LOUD >>>>>>>>>> The race: The key to pace lies with 10-pound claimer on Ovett, who should have no trouble leading them but how fast will he go? The other query with Blkrs going on is Super Fluke, disappointing last couple, who has some speed but also gets M Demuro on & he is a chronic misser of the start??? Expect Laugh Out Loud to b/seat, People's Knight & Run Forrest prominent but Enormous Honour might be ridden conservatively this draw coming back from 1600m as can get keen when bustled. Jolly Jolly jumped well l/s for first time in his 6 starts, settled up o/s an average sort of speed & came away for impressive win so expect will try to be forward. Recommendations: People's Knight new 3yo in open age race f/up since July, Run Forrest (Moreira) f/up, had good prep but C4 form l/season not as good as Jolly Jolly's form. Jolly Jolly 100 units & 4.0 at Bet365 & Centrebet looks value. Quinellas Units Race 2 Class m ANDOYAS 16 V 14 DALWARI >>>>>>>>>>>> INDUSTRIALIST WAY PEARL FURU >>>>>>>>>>>> SERGEANT TITANIUM SEMPITERNAL >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 4 DALWARI HAPPILABABY >>>> 5 GOOD CHOICE 14 ^ 10 GOLD DRAGON >>>>>>> HAPPILABABY 15 9 LOTUS STRIKES BACK >>>> 7 SEMPITERNAL 26 8 INDUSTRIALIST WAY >>>>>>>>>> 8 ASHKIYR 8.0 ^ 7 SERGEANT TITANIUM >>>>>>>>>> 9 LITTLE FANTASY 56 6 PO CHING TREASURE >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 10 PEARL FURU ASHKIYR >>>> LOTUS STRIKES BACK 17 4 GOOD CHOICE >>>> PO CHING TREASURE 14 V 3 ANDOYAS >>>>>>>>>> GOLD DRAGON 7.6 V 2 LITTLE FANTASY >>>>>>> MAC ROW 28 1 MAC ROW >>>>>>> The race: Possibly unlikely that they will all contest but Po Ching Treasure, with Blkrs going back on, Sempiternal and Dalwari can all go forward looking for a frontrunning role. Really no idea what they'll do with Pearl Furu after leading over 1600m first run HK & finishing last but mapping him forward. Happilababy has Blkrs go on today after getting well back in shorter races but he has also missed the jump clearly every time? Recommendations: Fav (Moreira) looks unders so some small value around some of his rivals but no surprise if they correct. 20 units Andoyas, 10 units Industrialist Way. Quinellas Units

2 Race 3 Class KINGSFIELD SPEEDY ACHIEVER >>>>>>>>>>>> 2 LAND GRANT BEAUTY PRINCE >>>>>>>>>> WINSTON'S LAD FLYING MOOCHI >>>>>>> 4 BEAUTY PRINCE 22 ^ 11 PENANG HALL >>>>>>> 5 FLYING MOOCHI 21 ^ 10 TEAM FORTUNE >>>>>>>>>>>> 6 SPEEDY ACHIEVER 58 ^ 9 DIEGO KOSTA >>>>>>>>>>>> TEAM FORTUNE KINGSFIELD >>>>>>>>>>>> 8 HARBOUR NOVA 9.2 ^ 7 LAND GRANT >>>>>>> PENANG HALL 26 V 6 SMILING WATCH >>>> 10 DR RACE 81 5 HARBOUR NOVA >>>>>>>>>> DIEGO KOSTA 8.1 ^ 4 WINSTON'S LAD >>>>>>> 12 GENTILIS 49 ^ 3 GENTILIS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 13 SMILING WATCH 79 ^ 2 DR RACE >>>>>>> 14 FASHION MAESTRO 31 1 FASHION MAESTRO >>>>>>>>>> The race: Potential for tactical changes, with plenty of runners who would normally go forward drawn wide in a race where the pace looks average to faster. Cheap speed is out of form Gentilis with 10-pound claimer but expect Kingsfield, Diego Kosta, Team Fortune and Speedy Achiever looking to get forward. Recommendations: Race sets up well for Winston's Lad but expect appropriate odds. 40 units. Penang Hall's price no doubt because Moreira chose Team Fortune instead but overs & is Purton. 10 units. Quinellas Units Race 4 HONG KONG VASE Group m FLINTSHIRE CANNOCK CHASE >>>> 2 CIRRUS DES AIGLES CIRRUS DES AIGLES >>>>>>>>>>>> CANNOCK CHASE HARBOUR MASTER >>>>>>> 4 PREFERMENT PREFERMENT >>>> HELENE SUPER STAR 10 9 HIGHLAND REEL >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DOMINANT 7.7 ^ 8 FLINTSHIRE >>>>>>>>>> HELENE HAPPY STAR KHAYA >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 8 HARBOUR MASTER 50 ^ 6 DARIYAN >>>> KHAYA 33 5 HELENE HAPPY STAR >>>>>>>>>> 10 ENSURING 19 ^ 4 ENSURING >>>>>>> HIGHLAND REEL 8.7 V 3 MING DYNASTY >>>> MING DYNASTY 12 2 DOMINANT >>>>>>> DARIYAN 12 1 HELENE SUPER STAR >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The race: Races this distance rarely anything but slowly run in HK even the Vase, as it is populated by Europeans who are modest beginners & reluctant leaders & HK horses who are inferior, unpracticed stayers & prefer to have a sprint home. Khaya led VERY slow tempo & ran 3rd in 2014 & will be looking for the same role again but his missing of the start which was once a minor vice has become a lot worse so it's a query whether he will be in front or out the back. Expect Helene Super Star prefers box seat but capable of leading if needed. The interesting ones are Highland Reel, who led all the way in a big win in the US & was on a good speed in the Cox Plate, and Cirrus des Aigles, who is usually prominent in races & going forward looks his best chance of doing something with a bad draw. Flintshire settled m/f and won with big finish last year but was in first 3 all way recently in the Arc when 2nd. Recommendations: Coolmore record in HK terrible but Highland Reel has some things in his favour here. 20 units. Some queries Ming Dynasty on firm going but can't hang him since hasn't failed at it. 20 units. Quinellas Units

3 Race 5 HONG KONG SPRINT G GOLD-FUN 2.1 ^ 14 PENIAPHOBIA >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2 SOLE POWER 47 ^ 13 STRAIGHT GIRL >>>>>>> LUCKY NINE SAKURA GOSPEL >>>>>>> DUNDONNELL GREEN MASK >>>>>>> 5 MIKKI ISLE MIKKI ISLE >>>>>>>>>>>> PENIAPHOBIA 6.8 V 9 STRATHMORE >>>>>>>>>> 7 RICH TAPESTRY 58 8 SOLE POWER >>>>>>> 8 CHARLES THE GREAT 15 ^ 7 CHARLES THE GREAT >>>> 9 GREEN MASK GOLD-FUN >>>>>>> 10 MONGOLIAN SATURDAY 44 5 LUCKY NINE >>>>>>> NOT LISTENIN'TOME 5.2 ^ 4 MONGOLIAN SATURDAY >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 12 SAKURA GOSPEL 58 3 RICH TAPESTRY >>>>>>>>>> STRATHMORE 12 2 NOT LISTENIN'TOME >>>>>>>>>>>> STRAIGHT GIRL 12 1 DUNDONNELL >>>>>>> The race: Last 3 winners of this have been leader or o/s lead & it is often not as fast-run race as expected. Not that many really quick horses for a 1,200m race here & shape of it could be different to the lead-up at Sha Tin three weeks ago when there was a perception of on-pace bias. Trainer of Peniaphobia has flagged he will again be ridden for speed & he might get a better result here than the last couple where he has had to work too hard. The most likely frontrunners inside him are Mikki Isle, a faultless beginner who will be the first head out of the gates but he doesn't actually lead in his races & gets fired up if pushed, & Mongolian Saturday, whose rider & trainer have indicated he might look to sit b/h something as he is a stamina doubt at 1,200m. Rich Tapestry a brilliant gate horse but trainer prefers him to sit b/h & Not Listenin'tome has a lot of speed but will probably take box seat if available & suspect it may be after trainer of Dundonnell said in press he thinks has been too close to speed lately. Midfield cd be quite crowded. Recommendations: Nothing between Gold-Fun & Peniaphobia as horses but race shape might see Peniaphobia reverse lead-up result. 40 units. Lucky Nine, Dundonnell 10 units each. Quinellas Units Race 6 Class m - 1 BRILLIANT SHINE WINNING LEADER >>>>>>>>>> 2 WINNING LEADER 40 ^ 13 REGENCY KING >>>>>>> APOLLO'S CHOICE BRILLIANT SHINE >>>>>>> FANTASTIC KAKA 13 V 11 ISHVARA >>>>>>>>>>>> PIKACHU SICHUAN DAR >>>> WERTHER 10 ^ 9 PIKACHU >>>>>>>>>> PHOTON WILLIE 14 8 PHOTON WILLIE >>>> BRILLIANT DREAM 24 V 7 TRAVEL FIRST >>>>>>>>>>>> VICTORY MAGIC BRILLIANT DREAM >>>>>>>>>> ISHVARA 11 5 WERTHER >>>>>>> 11 REGENCY KING 94 ^ 4 VICTORY MAGIC >>>>>>> WAH MAY FRIEND 10 3 WAH MAY FRIEND >>>>>>>>>> 13 TRAVEL FIRST 18 ^ 2 APOLLO'S CHOICE >>>>>>>>>>>> SICHUAN DAR 6.7 ^ 1 FANTASTIC KAKA >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The race: Looks a tricky map, pace average at best, possibly a touch slower. The field isn't lacking horses which can race forward but most are not laders or would do it reluctantly & that often means a muddling tempo as they all look around at each other wanting someone else to make the move. Prebble is a positive jockey by default, has gate one & probably suits him to go through & set a steady even tempo on Fantastic Kaka, Apollo's Choice takes his back & Travel First and Ishvara are the queries drawn wider with Ishvara perhaps forced to go to the leader's o/s rather than be deep. Regency King can race forward but been at pains not to lately, Winning Leader another question mark with 10-pound claimer going on as capable of racing forward.?? Recommendations: Brilliant Dream perceived as risk at 1600m but going better & more settled now than only previous try at it. 20 units. Fantastic Kaka 10 units. Quinellas Units

4 Race 7 HONG KONG MILE G1 1600m ABLE FRIEND REWARDING HERO >>>> MAURICE MONDIALISTE >>>> BEAUTY FLAME CONTENTMENT >>>>>>>>>>>> 4 MONDIALISTE MAURICE >>>>>>> 5 TOORMORE 55 ^ 10 ABLE FRIEND >>>> FIERO 22 9 TOORMORE >>>>>>> CONTENTMENT 15 V 8 ROMANTIC TOUCH >>>>>>> 8 REWARDING HERO 82 ^ 7 DANON PLATINA >>>>>>> 9 RED DUBAWI SECRET SHAM >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> GIANT TREASURE 15 5 BEAUTY FLAME >>>>>>>>>>>> 11 ROMANTIC TOUCH 42 ^ 4 FIERO >>>>>>>>>> 12 SECRET SHAM 72 ^ 3 ESOTERIQUE >>>>>>> 13 DANON PLATINA 35 2 RED DUBAWI >>>> 14 ESOTERIQUE 42 1 GIANT TREASURE >>>>>>>>>> The race: This sets up the same way as the lead-up 3 weeks ago, where Secret Sham allowed to cross & lead by Beauty Flame & Contentment & they didn't go that quickly. Beauty Flame & Contentment produced new career bests there, both beat Able Friend home so no reason to think they do differently & the addition of the foreign horses hasn't brought any new speed to the race. It is possible the rider on Secret Sham, stablemate to Able Friend, may be asked to run along a little more aggressively?? but looks the same race as the Jockey Club Cup. Recommendations: Able Friend has a pulse in a foot this morning & required to pass a midday vet test to start, obv his scrtahcing would change this radically & my market with him out would be 4.7 equal favourites Maurice & Contentment, 5.8 Beauty Flame & 9.1 Fiero, Giant Treasure. At this stage working with Able Friend running tho and up to subscribers if they take part in the event of his coming out but no value to be had current prices if he runs. NO WIN BET. Quinellas Units Race 8 HONG KONG CUP G1 2000m DESIGNS ON ROME FREE EAGLE 9.5 V 13 SATONO ALADDIN >>>> BLAZING SPEED 4.8 ^ 12 CRITERION >>>>>>> CRITERION A SHIN HIKARI >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MILITARY ATTACK 7.1 V 10 STAPHANOS >>>>>>> 6 DAN EXCEL 44 ^ 9 BEAUTY ONLY >>>> STAPHANOS 12 ^ 8 FREE EAGLE >>>>>>>>>>>> 8 GAILO CHOP 7 DAN EXCEL >>>>>>>>>>>> SATONO ALADDIN 56 V 6 DESIGNS ON ROME >>>> BEAUTY ONLY 6.7 ^ 5 LUCIA VALENTINA >>>>>>> A SHIN HIKARI 26 4 FREE PORT LUX >>>>>>> 12 FREE PORT LUX NUOVO RECORD >>>>>>>>>> 13 LUCIA VALENTINA 29 ^ 2 BLAZING SPEED >>>>>>>>>> NUOVO RECORD 11 1 MILITARY ATTACK >>>>>>>>>> The race: Average tempo, faster if anyone tries to keep A Shin Hikari out early but not expecting that now Gailo Chop's scratching has taken sting out of the speed. A Shin Hikari the designated leader now has one less to work around on first turn, where he will roll in front at a good, even clip rather try to stack them up. Dan Excel looks the one to sit second with the group in the 3 inside barriers next & Free Eagle has both options - go forward with Dan Excel & track across behind the leader or steady & hope for a position in midfield, but he needs to make a choice & get it right because the runners turn for 600m soon after the start. The scratching has been important for him & now believe he will press forward. Criterion's rider also has a decision to make on whether he follows the speed or steadies hoping to get in further back. Recommendations: Query over what price Free Eagle will finish up - a bet a current rpice but fair bit shorter with bookies & not crazy to take unders him with P Smullen on. Some value available Military Attack 20 units A Shin Hikari 10 units. Quinellas Units

5 Race 9 Class m + 1 PACKING LLAREGYB 21 ^ 14 DASHING FELLOW >>>>>>>>>>>> 2 PLEASURE GAINS 74 ^ 13 I'M IN CHARGE >>>>>>> 3 I'M IN CHARGE GURUS DREAM >>>> EXCITING DREAM LUCKY BUBBLES >>>>>>>>>>>> 5 SUPER LIFELINE SUPER LIFELINE >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> KABAYAN 16 V 9 SUN JEWELLERY >>>>>>>>>>>> 7 FLAME HERO 51 8 PLEASURE GAINS >>>>>>>>>> 8 GURUS DREAM 25 7 TRAVEL BROTHER >>>> 9 TRAVEL BROTHER 75 ^ 6 KABAYAN >>>>>>> SUN JEWELLERY KEY WITNESS >>>>>>>>>> KEY WITNESS 17 V 4 FLAME HERO >>>>>>>>>>>> LUCKY BUBBLES MULTIVICTORY >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DASHING FELLOW 16 V 2 PACKING LLAREGYB >>>> MULTIVICTORY EXCITING DREAM >>>>>>> The race: Average pace, perhaps faster. Looks a flurry of early speed that could spill into pressure midrace if the wider drawn horses push on & their tactics will be crucial to how fast they go. Two important jockey changes, 10-pound claimer on Super Lifeline, which probably means he will look to lead, & C Williams replacing moderate local rider on Multivictory, which probably means he hands up. Flame Hero & Pleasure Gains don't look players in the race but nuisance value on the map for Sun Jewellery, Lucky Bubbles, Dashing Fellow if they want to be right behind speed. Recommendations: Sun Jewellery and Lucky Bubbles will be well tipped and well found. Key Witness 20-1 with corporates & that's value. 10 units. Dashing Fellow 20 units. Quinellas Units Race 10 Class BORN IN CHINA BULLISH FRIEND >>>>>>>>>>>> AMAZING KIDS SUPREME FALCON >>>>>>>>>> 3 FRIENDS OF KA YING 8.0 ^ 12 AMAZING KIDS >>>>>>> JETWINGS HARRIER JET >>>>>>> 5 LOVELY DELOVELY 31 ^ 10 MASTER CERAMIBO >>>> FABULOUS ONE BORN IN CHINA >>>>>>>>>> 7 BULLISH FRIEND 26 ^ 8 FRIENDS OF KA YING >>>>>>> 8 HARRIER JET 26 ^ 7 HONG KONG CAPTAIN >>>>>>> 9 LOOKS LIKE THE CAT 36 ^ 6 LOOKS LIKE THE CAT >>>>>>> 10 SUPREME FALCON 13 ^ 5 SECRET COMMAND >>>>>>>>>> 11 ALMABABY 55 ^ 4 FABULOUS ONE >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 12 HONG KONG CAPTAIN 78 3 LOVELY DELOVELY >>>>>>>>>>>> 13 MASTER CERAMIBO 80 ^ 2 ALMABABY >>>>>>>>>> SECRET COMMAND 13 V 1 JETWINGS >>>>>>>>>> The race: Fabulous One has gate speed, shd to cross the fastest one under him, Lovely Delovely, and settle the pace before running strong sectionals from the 800m turn. Bullish Friend rolls on from wider to get over in that initial steadying of speed. Tactics on Amazing Kids interesting - this scenario has gone right back from wide gates & finished strongly to win but Moreira been riding Fabulous One as well & may be conscious of not wanting to give too big a start? Recommendations: Favs well found. Secret Command up in grade but fit. 40 units. Quinellas Units

WORK BOOK III HONG KONG RACING

WORK BOOK III HONG KONG RACING Over the last few years Hong Kong racing has provided many excellent betting opportunities and terrific value. With only two tracks being used, Sha Tin and Happy Valley,