Arlington County, Virginia Proposed CIP Program Summary

Transcription

1 CIP Program Summary The FY CIP includes typical capital projects such as maintenance capital, parks, transportation, metro, community conservation, government facilities, information technology and regionals. Similar to the last CIP, this 10 year CIP includes funding that has been previously approved in prior CIPs to show the full expenditure by fiscal year of each capital project. 10 Year Capital Program Costs Summary (000s) Program Category FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 Total Local Parks & Recreation 24,113 19,701 14,309 15,797 13,474 19,002 17,293 20,802 24,036 44, ,211 Transportation Initiatives 1 153, , , , , ,532 83,958 91,763 88,245 94,816 1,326,337 Metro 27,400 27,000 27,600 28,200 28,800 29,400 30,100 30,800 31,500 32, ,000 Community Conserv/Economic Develop. 10,000 8,550 8,700 5,550 4,500 4,700 4,500 5,080 6,500 10,905 68,985 Public / Government Facilities 27,637 31,870 16,210 10,520 10,200 11,550 13,200 21,200 25,685 28, ,033 Information Technology & Public Safety 14,970 18,509 7,124 18,291 9,261 12,137 13,063 16,117 7,205 10, ,306 Regional Partnerships 1,682 1,432 1,472 1,513 1,557 1,602 1,649 1,698 1,748 1,802 16,155 Total County Capital 259, , , , , , , , , ,997 2,242,027 Water & Sewer Infrastructure 28,915 35,390 42,555 46,155 45,880 55, ,030 58,180 31,720 53, ,175 Stormwater Management 2 9,270 4,093 5,833 2,011 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 33,207 Total Program Cost 297, , , , , , , , , ,067 2,774,409 (1) Transportation Capital Fund is supported by a commercial real estate tax of $0.125 per $100 of assessed value and 30% of revenues from a regional sales tax collected at the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA). The Transportation Capital Fund is supplemented by County PAYG as well as state and federal revenues. (2) Stormwater Management Fund is funded from the Sanitary District Tax, Watershed Management Fund, State Grants and project cost sharing with US Army Corps of Engineers. The sanitary district tax was increased from $0.01 to $0.013 per $100 of assessed value by the County Board on April 24, (3) Local and Regional funding for transportation projects from the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) were approved by the General Assembly in (4) Other previously approved funds: Any funds other than GO Bonds that were approved as part of prior CIPs that are to be spent during the FY19-FY28 CIP. B - 1

2 CIP Program Summary 10 Year Capital Program Costs Summary (000s) Capital Funding Sources FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 Total Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) 5,545 13,306 13,166 13,139 11,122 11,235 11,344 11,469 11,587 11, ,626 Short Term Financing 11,388 12,566 5,417 5,782 4,704 10,624 13,718 11,802 9,139 6,641 91,781 General Fund GO Bond Issue 69,120 65,795 64,625 57,260 58,900 66,005 67,160 81,045 87,725 91, ,860 General Fund Revenue Bond Funding ,300-2, ,150 Utilities PAYG 14,193 16,023 16,424 16,575 14,228 16,058 15,855 13,507 14,229 13, ,868 Utility GO Bond Issue - - 8,030 15,235 23,280 28,290 69,550 31,540 9,130 32, ,555 Federal Funding 3, ,265 3,226 2, ,661 2,162 16,576 State Funding 15,460 18,272 22,632 21,988 9,773 26,425 13,730 24,039 15,247 14, ,063 Developer Contributions and Partnerships 7,135 21,831 5,766 7,659 6,766 19,257 10,588 6,005 7,698 33, ,251 Sanitary District Tax 2 9,270 3,593 5,833 2,011 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 32,707 Transportation Capital Fund (TCF) - C&I 1 5,494 14,445 44,490 32,618 23,794 28,968 32,114 29,264 31,562 32, ,305 TCF - HB2313 Local 3 6,833 6,895 8,075 7,515 6,720 9,945 6,795 11,111 8,178 9,616 81,683 HB2313 Regional 3 5,198 31,214 47,986 59,954 65,198 27, ,194 Tax Increment Financing 3,040 4,361 7,091 5,563 5,858 5,459 7,078 6,848 7,075 7,387 59,760 Other Funding 4,619 8,766 3,861 8,979 11,807 13,253 15,580 16,571 9,188 21, ,826 Subtotal New Funding 160, , , , , , , , , ,821 2,419,205 Previously Approved Funding Authorized but Unissued Bonds 9,618 9,101 6,000 3, ,969 Issued but Unspent Bonds 20,104 1, ,961 Other Previously Approved Funds 4 138, ,922 43,238 6, , ,238 1, ,274 Subtotal Previously Approved Funding 168, ,830 49,280 9, , ,238 1, ,204 Total Funding 328, , , , , , , , , ,821 2,774,409 B - 2

3 CIP Comparison by Program Category FY17-26 FY19-28 $ Change % Change Parks and Recreation 208, ,211 4, % Transportation 1,285,299 1,326,337 41, % Metro 280, ,000 12, % Public/Government Facilities 282, ,033 (85,097) -30.2% Information Technology & Public Safety 146, ,306 (19,058) -13.0% Regional Partnerships & Contingencies 19,142 16,155 (2,987) -15.6% Joint County & Schools 23,500 - (23,500) % Community Conservation & Economic 97,050 68,985 (28,065) -28.9% Development Subtotal County Capital 2,342,036 2,242,027 (100,009) -4.3% Water and Sewer Infrastructure 420, ,175 78, % Stormwater Management 53,693 33,207 (20,486) -38.2% Total County CIP 2,816,233 2,774,409 (41,824) -1.5% Transportation 46% Parks and Recreation 7% Stormwater Management 2% Transportation 48% FY17-26 CIP Metro 10% Water and Sewer Infrastructure 15% FY19-28 CIP Metro 10% Public/Government Facilities 10% Information Technology & Public Safety Regional Partnerships & Contingencies 1% Joint County & Schools 1% Community Conservation & Economic Development 3% Public/Government Facilities 7% Information Technology & Public Safety 5% Regional Partnerships & Contingencies 1% Parks and Recreation 8% Stormwater Management 1% Community Conservation & Economic Development 2% Water and Sewer Infrastructure 18% B - 3

4 CIP Comparison by Funding Category FY17-26 FY19-28 $ Change % Change New Funding State/Federal Funding 316, ,639 (118,107) -37% Developer Contributions 110, ,251 15,861 14% General Fund GO Bond 657, ,860 51,535 8% Revenue Bond 65,500 11,150 (54,350) - Utilities GO Bond 146, ,555 71,318 49% PAYG 388, ,494 (123,616) -32% Short Term Financing 86,265 91,781 5,516 6% Sanitary District Tax 28,679 32,707 4,028 14% Other Funding 86, ,826 27,040 31% Transportation Capital Fund (TCF)-C&I 174, , ,497 57% TCF - HB2313 Local 99,585 81,683 (17,902) -18% TCF - HB2313 Regional 237, ,194 (618) 0% TCF Bonds Tax Increment Financing (TIF) 57,997 59,760 1,763 3% TIF Bonds Subtotal New Funding 2,456,240 2,419,205 (37,035) -2% Previously Approved Funding - Authorized but Unissued Bonds 53,331 27,969 (25,362) -48% Issued but Unspent Bonds 29,043 21,961 (7,082) -24% Other Previously Approved Funds 277, ,274 27,655 10% Subtotal Previously Approved Funding 359, ,204 (4,789) -1% Total Funding Sources 2,816,233 2,774,409 (41,824) -1% Utilities GO Bond 5% Developer Contributions 4% Revenue Bond General Fund GO Bond 26% Utilities GO Bond 8% Developer Contributions 5% General Fund GO Bond 23% FY17-26 CIP Short Term Financing 3% PAYG 14% State/Federal Funding 11% Other Previously Approved Funds 10% FY19-28 CIP Short Term Financing 3% PAYG 10% State/Federal Funding 7% Sanitary District Tax 1% Other Funding Sanitary District Tax 1% Other Previously Approved Funds 11% Transportation Capital Fund (TCF) C&I 6% TCF HB2313 Local 4% TCF HB2313 Regional 8% Other Funding 4% Issued but Unspent Bonds Tax Increment Financing (TIF) 2% Authorized but Unissued Bonds 2% Issued but Unspent Bonds 1% Transportation Capital Fund (TCF) C&I TCF HB2313 Local 3% TCF HB2313 Regional 9% Tax Increment Financing (TIF) 2% Authorized but Unissued Bonds 1% B - 4

5 FY FY 2028 CIP Debt Summary (000s) Total Bond and Master Lease Funding FY LOCAL PARKS & RECREATION Parks Maintenance Capital (pg. C-12) 8,585 12,500 13,500 14,000 14,635 63,220 Arlington Boathouse (pg. C-17) 500 2,245 2,745 Four Mile Run Near-Stream Improvements (pg. C-24) 6,325 6,325 Three Urban Parks in Ballston-Virginia Square (pg. C-427) Jennie Dean Park (pg. C-30) 16,180 16,180 Synthetic Fields (pg. C-45) 4,480 2,150 6,630 Long Bridge Park (pg. C-30) 2,375 2,375 Trail Modernization (pg. C-49) 1,115 1,185 1,255 1,335 1,415 6,305 Rosslyn Highlands Park + (pg. C-38) 3,450 4,235 7,685 Shirlington Park (pg. C-40) 6,560 6,560 Gateway Park (pg. C-26) ,415 20,915 Mosaic Park - Phase II (pg. C-33) 5,680 5,680 Drew Park (pg. C-22) 1,280 1,280 Sub-total 29,330 23,400 23,230 25,420 45, ,650 TRANSPORTATION Paving (pg. E-138) 21,360 22,030 23,750 25,200 26, ,085 Curb & Gutter Missing Links (pg. E-136) ,220 Boundary Channel Drive Interchange (pg. E-81 3,340 3,340 East Falls Church Streets (pg. E-102) ,000 2,030 Traffic Calming Device Replacement (pg. E-140) ,670 Parking Meters (pg. E-113) 430 1, ,500 4,895 Bridge Maintenance & Renovation (pg. E-89,135) 610 2,395 1,050 2,125 1,700 7,880 Street Lights (pg. E-124) 2,435 3,915 1,210 1,260 1,460 10,280 Neighborhood Complete Streets (pg. E-110) ,435 Transportation Asset Management (pg. E-126) ,300 Transportation Systems & Traffic Signals (pg. E-128) 850 1,000 1,740 1,730 1,050 6,370 WalkArlington (pg. E-130) ,075 1,135 1,205 4,250 BikeArlington (pg. E-87) ITS Device Replacement (pg. E-144) ,685 Sub-total 31,050 33,970 32,590 34,290 36, ,995 METRO Metro (pg. E-1) 43,520 41,305 45,935 47,980 48, ,530 B - 5

6 FY FY 2028 CIP Debt Summary (000s) Bond and Master Lease Funding Total FY COMMUNITY CONSERVATION Neighborhood Conservation (pg. C-55) 4,000 4,000 8,000 8,000 12,000 36,000 Penrose Square (pg. C-57) 580 4,405 4,985 Nauck Town Square (pg. C-60) 1,200 1,200 Sub-total 5,200 4,000 8,000 8,580 16,405 42,185 PUBLIC / GOVERNMENT FACILITIES Facilities Maintenance Capital (pg. C-69) 8,000 9,500 12,000 13,000 14,000 56,500 Buck Property Redevelopment (pg. C-87) 2,995 2,995 Fire Station #8 (pg. C-93) 14,000 14,000 Re-envisioning Quincy Park and Central Library (pg. C-36) 2,800 12,400 15,200 Fire Stations Replacements & Additions (pg. C-98) 22,115 22,115 Facility Condition Assessments & Planning Studies (C-76) 1, ,350 Columbia Pike Library Replacement (C-91) 2,810 2, S Irving Street Replacement (C-83) 4, ,320 Carlin Springs Site (C-90) 1,500 1,500 Land Acquisition (C-100) 3,710 3,710 Sub-total 31,815 13,210 15,150 47,515 16, ,500 Total Total County Bond Referenda FY County General Obligation Bond Referenda 140, , , , , ,860 Total Subject-to-Appropriation Revenue Bonds FY Fire Department Portable Radios (pg. D-126) 1,780 1,830 3,610 Public Safety Portable Radios (pg. D-16) 2,850 2,850 Public Safety Radio Base Stations / System (pg. D-16) 1,750 1,750 Police Mobile Data Computer Infrastructure (pg. D-11) 2,940 2,940 Total Subject-to-Appropriation Revenue Bonds 0 6,470 4, ,150 B - 6

7 FY FY 2028 CIP Debt Summary (000s) Bond and Master Lease Funding Total FY Short-Term Financing Total FY Synthetic Turf Program (pg. C-45) 1, ,837 1,155 1,357 2,434 2,751 12,631 Technology Maintenance Capital (pg. D-3) 3,985 3,299 2,974 2,955 4,454 4,820 4,517 4,385 2,194 3,740 37,323 Public Safety IT & Equipment Refreshment (pg. D-10 ) 7,403 7,700 1,370 2, ,467 7,796 6,060 4, ,777 Citizen Services & Engagement (pg. D-7) Emergency Communications (pg. D-9) Total General Fund Master Lease Funding 11,388 12,566 5,417 5,782 4,704 10,624 13,718 11,802 9,139 6,641 91,781 Auto Fund Master Lease - Fire Vehicle Apparatus (pg. D-11) 4,925 4,373 2,227 5,172 6,239 22,936 Total Utilities GO Bond Funding FY Source Water Reliability & Interconnections (pg. F-5) 1,030 1,030 32,500 34,560 Spout Run (pg. F-8) 1,235 1,235 Potomac Interceptor Phase II (pg. F-8) 3,090 3,090 Gravity Transmission Mains - B2 & B3 (pg. F-5) 2,985 3,390 6,375 Secondary Clarifiers (pg. F-22) 8,560 4,000 12,560 Edison Street / Carlin Springs Road (pg. F-6) 2,060 2,060 Primary Clarifier Upgrades (pg. F-25) 2, ,845 Solids Master Plan Phase II (pg. F-27) 1,500 1,820 3,320 Solids Master Plan Phase III (pg. F-28) 3,110 33,200 69,720 9, ,160 Washington Aqueduct Capital (pg. F-14) 3,980 31,370 35,350 Total Utility Fund GO Bond Referenda 0 23,265 51, ,090 41, ,555 Total Debt Funding 169, , , , ,019 1,052,282 B - 7

8 FY FY 2028 PAYG Summary Total PAYG Funding FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY19-28 MAINTENANCE CAPITAL Transportation (pg E-19, 20, 21, 42, 87, 120, 124, 129, 133, 136 1,716 2,328 2,283 2,269 2,182 2,251 2,308 2,377 2,445 2,514 22,673 Public Facilities (pg C-76, 80, 99) 1,262 3,040 3,040 3,040 3,040 3,040 3,040 3,040 3,040 3,040 28,622 Parks and Recreation (pg C-12) 972 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 10,422 Enterprise Information Technology (D-4) 756 2,085 2,330 2, ,544 Americans with Disabilities Act (C-85) ,300 Energy Efficiency (C-114) ,400 Sub-Total 5,206 9,303 9,503 9,432 7,422 7,491 7,548 7,617 7,685 7,754 78,961 REGIONAL PROGRAMS Northern Va Community College (pg C-4) ,704 Northern Va Regional Park Authority (pg C-4) ,472 Northern Va Criminal Justice Academy (pg C-4) ,390 Sub-Total 1,263 1,302 1,342 1,383 1,427 1,472 1,519 1,568 1,618 1,672 14,566 OTHER CAPITAL PROJECTS Transportation 905 1, ,788 Public Facilities (C-72) ,075 Parks and Recreation (C-9) 2, ,550 Enterprise Information Technology (D-3) ,626 Community Conservation (pg C-57) ,000 Capital Contingent (pg C-5) ,489 Sub-Total 5,505 2,701 2,321 2,324 2,273 2,272 2,277 2,284 2,284 2,287 26,528 Total PAYG Funding 11,974 13,306 13,166 13,139 11,122 11,235 11,344 11,469 11,587 11, ,055 B - 8

9 General Obligation Bond Referenda Adopted FY FY 2026 to FY FY 2028 Adopted FY FY 2026 CIP FY FY 2028 CIP Adopted Total Total General Obligation Bonds (000s) FY FY LOCAL PARKS & RECREATION Parks Maintenance Capital 11,890 11,500 12,500 13,500 14,000 63,390 8,585 12,500 13,500 14,000 14,635 63,220 Arlington Boathouse ,245-2,745 Four Mile Run Near-Stream Improvements - 2, , , ,325 Four Urban Parks in Ballston-Virginia Square - - 3,600-3, Jennie Dean Park 1,800 12, ,400 16, ,180 Parks Land Acquisition and Open Space 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 15, Quincy Park - - 2,300 12,400 14, Synthetic Fields - 2, ,350-4,480 2, ,630 Trail Modernization 1,250 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 5,650 1,115 1,185 1,255 1,335 1,415 6,305 Rosslyn Highlands Park 5, ,245 3,450 4, ,685 Shirlington Park ,560-6,560 Long Bridge Park ,375 2,375 Tyrol Hills Park 1, , Glebe and Randolph Park Gateway Park ,415 20,915 Mosaic Park - Phases I and II - 4, , ,680 5,680 Drew Park ,030 1, ,280-1,280 Sub-total 19,310 33,445 26,170 23,500 33, ,905 29,330 23,400 23,230 25,420 45, ,650 JOINT COUNTY-SCHOOLS PROJECTS Thomas Jefferson Parking Deck 12, , Sub-total 12, , TRANSPORTATION Paving 23,890 21,110 22,390 23,750 25, ,340 21,360 22,030 23,750 25,200 26, ,085 Curb & Gutter Missing Links , ,220 Boundary Channel Drive Interchange 1,340 2, ,340 3, ,340 East Falls Church Streets , , ,030 Traffic Calming Device Replacement ,670 Parking Meters , ,500 4,895 Safe Routes to Schools Bridge Maintenance & Renovation 2,400 1,270 1,970 1,330 2,575 9, ,395 1,050 2,125 1,700 7,880 Street Lights ,000 2,435 3,915 1,210 1,260 1,460 10,280 Neighborhood Complete Streets , ,435 Transportation Asset Management ,300 Transportation Systems & Traffic Signals ,000 1,000 1,000 4, ,000 1,740 1,730 1,050 6,370 WalkArlington ,090 1,210 1,330 5, ,075 1,135 1,205 4,250 BikeArlington , ITS Device Replacement ,685 Sub-total 28,785 27,650 30,435 30,275 32, ,465 31,050 33,970 32,590 34,290 36, ,995 B - 9

10 General Obligation Bonds (000s) Arlington County, Virginia General Obligation Bond Referenda Adopted FY FY 2026 to FY FY 2028 Adopted FY FY 2026 CIP FY FY 2028 CIP Adopted Total Total FY FY METRO Metro 30,000 28,000 19,600 20,900 22, ,100 43,520 41,305 45,935 47,980 48, ,530 COMMUNITY CONSERVATION Neighborhood Conservation 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 60,000 4,000 4,000 8,000 8,000 12,000 36,000 Penrose Square ,800-4, ,405 4,985 Nauck Town Square 4, ,850 1, ,200 Nauck Infrastructure Fund Sub-total 17,350 12,000 12,500 15,800 12,000 69,650 5,200 4,000 8,000 8,580 16,405 42,185 PUBLIC / GOVERNMENT FACILITIES Facilities Maintenance Capital 9,600 8,000 9,500 12,000 13,000 52,100 8,000 9,500 12,000 13,000 14,000 56,500 County Childcare 1, , Fire Station 8 1,120 14, ,120 14, ,000 Fire Stations Replacements & Additions ,220 17, ,115-22,115 Court House Complex Renovations/Infrastructure 6,250 2,000-4,180-12, Barcroft Gymnastics Expansion 3, , Re-envisioning Quincy Park and Central Library ,000-2, ,800 12,400-15,200 Columbia Pike Library Refresh ,810 2, ,810 2,810 Critical Systems Infrastructure 1, , Government Facilities Planning & Construction , , Carlin Springs Site , ,500 Lubber Run Community Center 46, , Land Acquisition , , S Irving Street Replacement , ,320 Facility Needs and Condition Assessments , ,350 Buck Property Redevelopment , ,995 Sub-total 69,500 24,000 24,500 18,180 33, ,210 31,815 13,210 15,150 47,515 16, ,500 TOTAL County GO Bond Referenda 176, , , , , , , , , , , ,860 B - 10

11 Debt Capacity Analysis In developing the CIP, the County establishes its long-range plan for pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and bond/lease purchase financing of its tenyear capital program. In determining the level of capital projects to finance and the method of financing, the County considers its financial ability to undertake these projects. This analysis includes a review of debt capacity factors and the impact of the adopted CIP on these debt capacity factors. In April 2008, the County Board approved financial and debt management policies that affirmed the County s existing debt capacity factors. The policies also included guidance on bond term and amortization, specifically that bond-funded projects will typically have a useful life at least as long as the period over which the bonds will be repaid (the average life of County bonds is years and final maturity is generally twenty years; however, longer terms may be considered on very long useful life projects). Finally, the Board s policies provided guidance on the use of variable rate debt and derivatives. The Board has periodically adopted revisions to the financial and debt management policies, most recently as part of the Adotped FY 2018 Operating Budget. These policies serve as the financial framework for the CIP, and a full copy of the adopted policies is included in the Financial & Debt Management Policies section. The bond rating agencies that rate the County s debt for potential investors use these debt ratios, coupled with other County and community economic factors. The three major bond rating agencies, Moody s Investors Service, Standard & Poor s, and Fitch Ratings currently rate the County Aaa/AAA /AAA (the highest possible). Arlington is one of a select national group of counties that currently hold these coveted Aaa/AAA/AAA ratings from the three major rating agencies. The County's bond ratings were reaffirmed in May 2018 and historical County bond trading in the secondary market confirm that Arlington belongs within the very top group of municipal credits in the national bond market. The funding levels contained in this CIP would maintain this status. While there is no legal limit in Virginia on the level of debt issued by Virginia counties, Arlington has issued and plans to issue its debt prudently. Arlington will remain within the acceptable range of debt capacity factors with the CIP based on conservative assumptions, as illustrated on the following pages. B - 11

12 Underlying Assumptions The projected ratios shown in the following tables are based on the County s FY 2019 FY 2028 CIP. It is important to note that the County s financial and debt management policies view debt capacity on a combined basis (i.e., County and Schools) as do the bond rating agencies. The projected debt ratios are based on conservative revenue growth assumptions: 1.2% growth in FY 2020, slowly escalating to 3% in FY 2027 and thereafter. Similarly conservative assumptions have been used for projected growth in market value of the County s tax base (identical to revenue growth assumptions) and per capita income growth of 2 percent annually. It should be noted that these debt ratios include only general obligation and other tax-supported debt, including bonds issued through the Industrial Development Authority (IDA) or other conduit issuers for County projects where debt service is paid for from the General Fund. For example, these ratios include the subject-to-appropriation Series 2017 IDA revenue bonds issued in October 2017 for the acquisition of the Buck property, and for acquisition, design, and construction of the Head Start facility at 2920 South Glebe Road. The ratios do not include bonds where the County has provided a moral obligation pledge as credit support to a project (e.g., the Kettler Iceplex facility or the Gates of Ballston project). In charts C and D of this section, the customary general obligation debt to the tax base ratio chart has been amended to also show the effect of moral obligation or subject-to-appropriation backed capital financing. The ratios do not include debt that is supported by user fees from enterprise funds, including debt included for the Utilities Fund. Projected Debt Ratios Ratio of Debt Service to General Expenditures No Greater Than 10% -- Over the ten-year planning period, this ratio will range from 9.0% to 9.9%, peaking in FY Outstanding Debt as Percentage of Market Valuation of Tax Base No Greater than 3% -- The amount of debt that the County carries is moderate when compared to its tax base. This ratio is projected to range from 1.4% to 1.6% over the ten year planning period. Ratio of Debt per Capita to Per Capita Income No Greater than 6% -- The County estimates that the Debt to Income ratio will range from 4.9% to 5.9%, assuming 2.2% growth in per capita income. Growth in Debt Service over the Ten Year Planning Period No Greater than Ten-Year Historical Growth in Revenues Average annual growth in debt service is estimated at 3.3% compared to historical average ten-year revenue growth of 3.5%. B - 12

13 Chart A Arlington County, Virginia Debt Ratio Forecast FY FY 2028 Capital Improvement Plan FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 Adopted GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS - COUNTY (1) 117,855, ,965,000 64,625,000 57,260,000 58,900,000 66,005,000 67,160,000 81,045,000 87,725,000 91,225,000 GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS - SCHOOLS (1) 58,730,000 48,150,000 46,100,000 23,550,000 26,500,000 33,200,000 56,400,000 15,600,000 48,800,000 49,000,000 GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS RETIRED 76,396,486 78,939,699 83,110,934 87,615,245 90,104,639 93,817,900 96,945,844 98,624, ,159, ,897,406 NET TAX-SUPPORTED GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS AT END OF FISCAL YEAR (2) 1,073,204,362 1,144,379,663 1,171,993,728 1,165,188,484 1,160,483,845 1,165,870,945 1,192,485,100 1,190,506,067 1,221,871,206 1,257,198,800 SUBJECT-TO-APPROPRIATION BOND ISSUANCE 19,698,000 19,454,000 17,851,000 29,308,000 10,715,000 16,482,000 18,463,000 24,301,000 11,205,000 10,351,000 SUBJECT-TO-APPROPRIATION BONDS RETIRED 6,120,238 9,690,407 14,484,312 17,019,354 21,770,651 21,458,973 23,162,508 22,541,887 23,302,875 23,535,220 NET TAX-SUPPORTED BONDS AT END OF FISCAL YEAR (3) 1,214,512,821 1,295,451,715 1,326,432,468 1,331,915,870 1,316,155,580 1,316,565,708 1,338,480,355 1,338,260,435 1,357,527,698 1,379,671,073 SCHOOLS DEBT SERVICE 58,554,383 60,089,507 62,777,833 63,620,716 63,075,053 63,639,728 64,962,770 66,408,153 68,461,494 66,175,407 COUNTY DEBT SERVICE (4) 69,462,282 73,881,825 80,797,644 86,283,955 90,684,907 93,854,785 96,483,474 97,042, ,476, ,256,226 TOTAL TAX SUPPORTED DEBT SERVICE 128,016, ,971, ,575, ,904, ,759, ,494, ,446, ,450, ,937, ,431,633 % GROWTH IN TAX-SUPPORTED DEBT SERVICE 7.5% 6.4% 9.4% 6.8% 5.1% 3.5% 2.8% 0.6% 4.6% 3.7% COUNTY ONLY 4.7% % GROWTH IN TAX-SUPPORTED DEBT SERVICE 11.5% 4.7% 7.2% 4.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4.0% 0.9% COUNTY / SCHOOLS CIP General Government Expenditures (2.6% less $7 1,345,341,851 1,385,702,107 1,427,273,170 1,470,091,365 1,514,194,106 1,559,619, % GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (5) 1,428,421,412 1,445,562,469 1,477,364,843 1,511,344,235 1,547,616,496 1,584,759,292 1,625,963,034 1,668,238,073 1,718,285,215 1,769,833,771 growth assumptions -0.27% 1.20% % % % % % % % % DEBT SERVICE AS % OF EXPENDITURES 8.96% 9.27% 9.72% 9.92% 9.94% 9.94% 9.93% 9.80% 9.89% 9.69% MARKET VALUATION OF TAXABLE PROPERTY (6) 78,062,546,865 78,999,297,427 80,737,281,971 82,594,239,456 84,576,501,203 86,606,337,232 88,858,102,000 91,168,412,652 93,903,465,031 96,720,568,982 Consistent with FY2016 Adopted Budget 1.95% 1.20% 2.20% 2.30% 2.40% 2.40% 2.60% 2.60% NET TAX SUPPORTED DEBT AS % OF MARKET VALUATION (3%) 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% POPULATION (7) 238, , , , , , , , , ,340 DEBT PER CAPITA $5,097 $5,567 $5,644 $5,611 $5,491 $5,440 $5,478 $5,425 $5,452 $5,489 INCOME PER CAPITA (8) $91,900 $93,922 $95,988 $98,100 $100,258 $102,464 $104,718 $107,022 $109,376 $111,782 Consistent with FY2016 Adopted Budget 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% NET TAX-SUPPORTED GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT TO INCOME (NOT TO EXCEED 6%) 5.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% (1) Updated for 2017 GO Bond Issuance. 5% interest rate assumed on all other bond issuance (2) Excludes GO bonds issued for the Utilities Fund (3) Excludes credit support commitments on revenue bonds or lease-backed bond financings, includes IDA Bonds supported by the County's General Fund. For Subject to Appropriation debts, see Chart C. (4) Includes both General Obligation and Subject to Appropriation debt. Excludes Utilities Fund, Transportation Capital Fund Debt Service, and Other debt costs (5) Includes expenditures of General Fund and certain Special Revenue Funds of the County and School Board. Assumes 1.2% growth in FY 2020, ramping up to 3.0% in FY2027 and beyond (6) Includes real, personal property, and Public Property. Assumes 1.2% growth in FY 2020, ramping up to 3.0% in FY2027 and beyond (7) Population as of July 1, 2017 from the US Census with growth as estimated by MWCOG Round 8.4 Forecasts. (8) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2016 estimates, with growth of 2.2% consistent with PCPI annual growth in Virginia from B - 13

14 Chart B 12.0% Ratio of Tax Supported Debt Service to General Expenditures FY 2019 FY 2028 Capital Improvement Plan (NOT TO EXCEED 10%) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Projection 9.0% 9.3% 9.7% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.8% 9.9% 9.7% Ceiling 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% B - 14

15 Chart C Summary of Tax Supported General Obligation Bonds & Subject To Appropriation Type Financings (1) Ratio of Outstanding Debt to Market Value FY 2019 FY 2028 Capital Improvement Plan As of June 30 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 Adopted Tax-Supported General Obligation Debt $1,073,204,362 $1,144,379,663 $1,171,993,728 $1,165,188,484 $1,160,483,845 $1,165,870,945 $1,192,485,100 $1,190,506,067 $1,221,871,206 $1,257,198,800 Tax-Supported Subject to Appropriation ("STA") Debt Capital Equipment Short Term Financing (2) 19,171,484 20,414,756 20,794,101 18,319,741 17,307,597 15,422,839 19,704,885 25,526,752 26,924,602 24,676,878 Industrial Development Authority (IDA) Bonds (3) 106,305, ,835,000 96,045,000 90,200,000 84,290,000 78,330,000 72,300,000 67,350,000 62,315,000 57,195,000 Subtotal $125,476,484 $122,249,756 $116,839,101 $108,519,741 $101,597,597 $93,752,839 $92,004,885 $92,876,752 $89,239,602 $81,871,878 Project-Supported Subject to Appropriation ("STA") Debt (4) IDA Lease Revenue Bonds (Ballston Skating Facility) (5) 21,945,000 20,740,000 19,480,000 18,155,000 16,760,000 15,290,000 13,740,000 12,100,000 10,365,000 8,525,000 Gates of Ballston (6) 23,000,000 23,000,000 23,000,000 23,000,000 Subtotal 44,945,000 43,740,000 42,480,000 41,155,000 16,760,000 15,290,000 13,740,000 12,100,000 10,365,000 8,525,000 Total Tax-Supported General Obligation (GO) & ALL STA Financings 1,243,625,845 1,310,369,419 1,331,312,830 1,314,863,224 1,278,841,442 1,274,913,784 1,298,229,986 1,295,482,819 1,321,475,808 1,347,595,679 Total Tax-Supported GO and Tax-Supported STA Financings 1,198,680,845 1,266,629,419 1,288,832,830 1,273,708,224 1,262,081,442 1,259,623,784 1,284,489,986 1,283,382,819 1,311,110,808 1,339,070,679 Total Project-Supported STA Financings 44,945,000 43,740,000 42,480,000 41,155,000 16,760,000 15,290,000 13,740,000 12,100,000 10,365,000 8,525,000 Market Value of Taxable Property 78,062,546,865 78,999,297,427 80,737,281,971 82,594,239,456 84,576,501,203 86,606,337,232 88,858,102,000 91,168,412,652 93,903,465,031 96,720,568,982 Total Tax-Supported GO & ALL STA Financings as Percent of Market Value (Not to Exceed 4%) 1.59% 1.66% 1.65% 1.59% 1.51% 1.47% 1.46% 1.42% 1.41% 1.39% Total Tax-Supported GO & Tax-Supported STA Financings as Percent of Market Value 1.54% 1.60% 1.60% 1.54% 1.49% 1.45% 1.45% 1.41% 1.40% 1.38% Total Project-Supported STA Financings (Credit Enhancement) as Percent of Market Value (2) 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% (1) Excludes Self-supporting debt in the Utility Fund (2) Includes existing and planned capital equipment short term financing in the General Fund, Auto Fund, Utilities Fund and Schools Fund (3) Includes the Series 2011, 2013, and 2017 IDA Revenue Bonds (4) Debt service on these financings is intended to be repaid by user fees or tenant rental income, not by County General Fund revenues. (5) Includes the bonds issued by the IDA in 2010 to refinance the construction of two ice rinks, the office space, and the training facility on top of the 8th Level at the Ballston Parking Garage. B - 15

16 Chart D 3.50% Ratio of Tax Supported & Subject to Appropriation Financing as a Percentage of Market Value FY 2019 FY 2028 Capital Improvement Plan 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 Project Supported 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% Tax Supported 1.54% 1.60% 1.60% 1.54% 1.49% 1.45% 1.45% 1.41% 1.40% 1.38% Tax Supported Project Supported B - 16

17 Chart E 7.0% Ratio of Tax Supported General Obligation Debt to Income FY 2019 FY 2028 Capital Improvement Plan Not to Exceed 6% 6.0% 5.0% 5.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 Tax Supported Debt to Income Not to Exceed 6% B - 17